The Investment Wave – Today Or Tomorrow?

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The Investment Wave – Today Or Tomorrow? The investment wave – today or tomorrow? A view on the power transmission and distribution service industry December 2013 www.pwc.se A step change – New market place Contents In this report we outline Introduction Furthermore the industry as a whole The landscape for servicing our electric- is in a state of flux with Fortum having how we view the current announced that it will divest its grid and A step change – New market place .............3 ity grid and network is rapidly changing and coming market, and there are new demands to develop on-going regulatory uncertainty with About electricity networks .........................5 opportunities and impact the infrastructure across the Nordics. respect to the overall revenue for distri- bution companies. Power transmission ...................................8 on the Power Transmission End-consumers and regulators place Power distribution ................................... 19 and Distribution (PT&D) increasing demands on network reliabil- Finally, how much consumers should pay ity. During the last decade storms such to reinvestment is a key topic in several Contacts .................................................26 industry as Gudrun, and recently Simone, have Nordic countries with regulation driving how Transmission System Operators APPENDIX ............................................... 27 hit the Nordic grid owners resulting in major expenditure on repairing and (TSOs) and Distribution System Op- renewing the networks. erators (DSOs) can invest in building, upgrading and renewing the networks. Current power networks approaching end of technical life combined with the Coupled together this creates new busi- expansion of renewable electricity pro- ness opportunities in a changing market. duction require large investments in new connections and new power capacity. In particular the major investment pro- gram in the Nordics create opportunities Integration of the European electricity for PT&D service providers and other market and introduction of grid codes related market players. and homogenized practices across the EU is also driving new expenditure and The PT&D service market has during changing the business environment. the last years mainly been a low-mar- gin industry in fierce competition. New The above leads to a market that is set for entrants and owners of PT&D service a step-change in expenditure levels and companies need to realise higher than new ownership structures – what will historic EBITDA-margins by developing this imply for the PT&D industry? new business models and achieving economies of scale to fully tap a rapidly growing total market. 2 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 2013 2013 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 3 “Electricity is very valuable – especially when it is not there” Ståle Eirik Johansen, Head of Energy & Utilities PwC Norway Key messages Main players on the power service mar- The PT&D industry is becoming more ket have had low profitability and many complex through technology develop- have been acquired by private equity About electricity networks ments and rapid introduction of inter- expecting to realising higher future mittent power sources such as wind and margins. solar. The coming expenditure wave and mar- ket flux will have a significant impact on Capex in the transmission grid is expec- The regional grids transport electricity the industry but it will vary depending Electricity networks ted to grow significantly over the coming from the national grid to local grids, on market participant with key areas Electricity networks comprise of both years – national TSOs estimate total and occasionally directly to high volume being: transmission infrastructure and distribu- expenditure in the Nordics to be approx- consumers such as heavy industry. imately EUR 10 bn in 2013-2017 which • Deliverability of capex – prioritising tion infrastructure. is significantly higher than the historical and managing the capex build-out PT&D system can be likened to our Transmission can be defined as the trans- spend. public road network, both being among a fer of large amounts of power around a • Managing complex grids – integrating country’s most important infrastructure country or region or between countries, The investment wave in the Nordics has renewables into the system and – and both subject to frequent congestion from generating power plants to substa- just been initiated but may be delayed prioritising investments and bottlenecks. caused by regulatory delays in conces- tions located near where it is consumed. Power transmission is carried out via sions resulting in the operators inability • Driving higher margins – how service • The voltage level of the power network the national grid (or transmission grid) to materialise the current expenditure companies can focus on profitable determines the transmission capacity which consists of high-voltage power plans on time. PwC estimated that the projects just as the maximum speed on our lines. investments can be delayed at least public roads. 1-2 years leading to a shift in the wave. • Reducing expenditure level – creating Distribution is the final stage in the de- competition in PT&D service market • For both the road network and the livery of electricity from to end users via The power distribution market is in for power network, high capacity for long smaller power lines at medium and/or a similar shift as in power transmission • Procurement strategy – how to distance is used, while lower capacity lower voltage. Power distribution include driven by similar trends. procure service efficiently is primarily used in cities and nearest both medium-voltages power lines form- households. In the same way that no ing the regional grids and low-voltage However the Nordics is a highly frag- • Balance between increasing outsour- Nordic Power Transmission household has freeway access, they local grids. mented marketed with different structu- cing or maintaining control inhouse and Distribution Industry are not directly connected to the res in each country with respect to DSO high-voltage power lines either. ownership and level of outsourcing. Nord Pool Power exchange Electricity producers The investment wave will lead to a significiant increase in expenditure in renewing the Nordic electricity grid in the next decade which represents a step-change. This will lead to new market opportunities and impact all participants from Electricity trader owners and regulators to service providers. However there is a significant risk that plans may be delayed, postponed or create bottlenecks resulting in a challenging future. Local grid National grid Regional grid Power transmission Consumers Power distribution 4 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 2013 2013 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 5 The power transmission and distribution industry is Today and becoming more complex tomorrow Complexity & Scale • Technology developments are making the market increasingly complex • Cross border initiatives drive the need for international players • Increased need for advanced services and know-how • Higher demands on system security and availability also 2000 drive complexity New players due to unbundling • Suppliers are consolidating to benefit from scale and scope advantages • Unbundling in some markets begins • Creating a new service industry and new players 90’s to take advantage of a new market Beginning of electricity market • Emergence of a new outsourcing and service de-regulation industry • Few and dominating state owned players • Market regulated with few private enterprises • Not seen as a “growth market” Increased complexity and the need for scale advantages is character- ising the PT&D service industry today and going forward increas- ing the demand for players with a broad competence base and geo- graphic reach 6 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 2013 2013 The investment wave – today or tomorrow 7 Transmission of electricity in the Power Nordics is challenging. An electric future requires stronger grids, transmission availability and faster communication. Transmission of electricity Physical limits on power lines and The bidding areas may get different pric- The Nordic Power system is dominated transformers create bottlenecks in the es, due to bottlenecks in the transmission by hydropower accounting for approxi- transmission system. Due to these bottle- system. mateley 50% of the total Nordic genera- necks, the Nordic region is divided into a tion capacity. The rest of the generation number of bidding areas. As such, bidding areas give a signal consists of a mixture of sources: nuclear where investing in additional transmis- power, thermal power and renewables. The complexity of managing balance in sion capacity is required. the system has increased given the rapid Electricity production differs consid- introduction of renewables – and peak erably among the Nordic countries. prices will be ever more frequent. Hydropower stations are located mainly in northern areas, while the majority of The different bidding areas help indicate our electricity consumption occurs in the constraints in the transmission systems, south. and ensure that regional market condi- tions are reflected in the price. Just as there can be traffic congestions in the road network, constraints can also arise in the power network. A constraint arises where the electricity system is unable to transmit the power supplied to the location of demand due SE1 to congestion at one or more parts of the A significant amount of transmission
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