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National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) Flood Alert # 2, 04 June 2020 Photo credit: WDRMO, Flood impact in Shebelle and Dawa zones, Somali region (May 2020) 0 Introduction and background: On 04 June 2020, the National Flood Task Force issued a Flood Alert #2 following the release of the National Metrological Agency’s (NMA) kiremt (summer) rainy season outlook (June- September). The seasonal outlook projects a very high probability of heavy rainfall (especially in July and August) in the western, south western and central parts of the country. Additionally, the Ministry of Water and Energy reported that dam reservoir levels (e.g. Koka, Tendaho, Kesem Megech, Tekeze) are increasing due to current heavy and extended belg (spring) rains. Meanwhile, the timeliness and the projected good performance of the kiremt rains will be beneficial for agricultural activities (planting of short maturing crops), pasture regeneration and water replenishment in kiremt rain-receiving parts of the country. This Flood Alert intends to enhance community awareness, preparedness and mitigation measures in flood-risk areas across the country, with the aim to minimize impacts on people’s lives and livelihoods. A Flood Contingency Plan will soon be developed based on the seasonal outlook to guide Government and partners’ flood preparedness measures. The National Flood Task Force had released a Flood Alert # 1 earlier in the season on 28 April, listing the areas at risk of flooding based on NMA’s 2020 belg (spring) weather outlook. (https://bit.ly/3dkJR2o). Fig 1: Map showing flood risk areas during the 2020 kiremt season. N.B: Woredas shaded in blue are not necessarily identified as flood-risk areas, since these areas may be fully or partially flood prone. 1 NMA weather outlook for 2020 kiremt season All-weather forecasting indicators show a high probability of a wetter kiremt season. As a result, Normal to above normal rain is expected in western, south western and central Ethiopia. Dominantly normal rain is anticipated in eastern half of the country. Parts of north western Ethiopia will receive normal to above normal rain. Timely onset and cessation of rain is expected in most kiremt rain-receiving areas. Dry spells and erratic rainfall will likely persist in pocket areas from June to September. Localized heavy rainfall will likely cause flooding and landslides in flood- prone areas. NMA weather outlook for the month of June 2020 The kiremt rainy season typically starts in June. However, an early onset of the 2020 kiremt season is expected the western and south western parts of the country. The kiremt season is expected to overlap with the extended belg (spring) season in most of these areas. The kiremt rainfall will likely gradually increase in amount and climatological coverage over the course of the next few weeks. The rainfall in June is expected to benefit the following regions: Addis Ababa; East and West Wollega, Jimma, Illibabur, all Shoa zones, East and West Hararge, Arsi, and Bale zones of Oromia region; East and West Gojam, Awi, North and South Gonder zones and Bahir Dar zuria of Amhara region; Western and central zones of Tigray region; Most parts of Gambella, Benishangul Gumuz and SNNP regions. Most of the above-listed areas are expected to receive normal rains, while some areas will likely receive above normal rains. 2 Meanwhile, (Borena and Guji zones (Oromia), South and North Wollo, Wag Hamira zones (Amhara), Zones 3 and 5 (Afar), Fafan, and Sitti zones (Somali) are expected to receive minimal rainfalls, while other parts of the country will remain dry. Flood-risk areas during the 2020 kiremt rainy season Based on NMA weather outlook for 2020 kiremt season and long year average rainfall data, the following flood-risk areas are identified per region: Gambella: Nuer (Wanthewa, Lare, Akobo, Mackoye and Jikawo woredas), Anuak (Gambella zuria, Gambella town, Dimma, Jor, Gog and Abobo woredas), Mejenger zone (Mengeshi and Etang special woredas). Benishangul Gumuz: Assossa zone (Assossa and Sherkolle woreda) Oromia: West Hararge zone (Habro, Hawi Gudina and Oda Buletuma), East Hararge zone (Gola Oda Goro Gutu, Jarso, Gursum, Deder, Girawa, Bedeno, and Meta), West Arsi (Shala, Arsi, Negelle, Siraro, Kofelle, Nensebo and Kore), Arsi (Ziway, Chole, Ziway Dugda, Gololcha, Robe, Asko and Seru), Bale (Agarfa, Lega Hida, Gasera, Gololcha, Ginir, Sewina, Gore, Berbere and Guradamole), West Shoa (Ejere, Gibchi, Holeta, and Ejersa Lefo), Southwest Shoa (Illu, Becho and Dawo), West Guji (Gelana, Bulle Hora, and Abaya), Guji (Adolla, Aurga, Bore, Hana Sora, and Dimma), East Showa (Boset, Liben Chekala, Bora, Adama Town, Adama woreda, Adami Tulu, Jido Kombolcha, Fentale, and Lome), North Shoa (Yaya Gulele, Alu Ababaora, Becho,) and Finfine special woreda (Sebeta Hawas and Sebeta town). Amhara: South Gondar zone (Libo Kemkem, Fogera and Dera), North Gondar (Dabat), Central Gonder ( Dembia, Gonder zuria, Alefa, and Tegede), West Gojam (Dar Zuria and Dega Damot), East Gojam (Mechekel), Oromia zone (Jile Tumuga, Arthuma Fursi, Kemisie town, Dewa Chefa, and Dewa Harewe), North Shewa zone (Antsokiya Gemza, Ataye Town, Shoa Robit, Kewet, Efrata Gidm, and Ansaro), North Wollo (Bugna, Woldia town, Kobo, Mersa), South Wollo (Ambasel, Kembolcha town, Dessie town, Haik Town, and Kalu). Somali: Shabelle (Kelafo, Mustahile, Ferefer, Gode, Berano, Addile, East Imy, and Danan), Afder (West Imy, Chereti, Dollo Bay, Hargelle, and El kari), Liben (Dollo Ado and Filtu), Dollo (Warder), Korahe (Kebridehar and Shellabo), Fafan (Jigjiga, Gursum, Harshin, Togwajale and kabribayah), Jerara ( Gashamo and Degehabur), Siti (Afdem, Ayisha, Erer, Miesso, and Shinille). 3 Afar: Zone 1 (Dubti, Afambo, Asayita, Mille and Chifra), Zone 2 (Ab’ala, Berhale, Megale and Koneba), Zone 3 (Amibara, Geleale, Gewane, Awash town, Dulecha and Awash Fentale), Zone 4 (Yalo and Ewa). Tigray: Western (Kafta Humera and Tsegede), Eastern Tigray (Hawuzein,), Northwestern (Tahtay Keraro), Southern (Alamata, Raya Azebo, Maichew, Ofla and Enda Mekoni). SNNP: South Omo (Dasenech, Jinka twon, Debub Are, Benatsemay, Hamer and Selamango), Hadiya (Shashogo, Ane Limu, Misrak & Mirab Badewacho), Wolayta zone (Humbo, Damotwoyide, Duguna Fango, Kindo Didaye, Kindo Koyisha, Ofa, Sodo Zuria, Buloso Sore, and Buloso Bombe), Alaba special woreda, Yem special woreda, Basketo special woreda, Amaro special woreda, KembataTembaro zone (Angacha and Kedida Gamela), Segen (Konso and Burji), Sidama (Loka Abaya, Hawassa zuria, Boricha, Hawassa town, Shebedino, Wondo Genet and Hula), Gedio Kochere (Bule, wonago, and Yirga Chefe), Silte (Dalocha, Lanfuro, Snkora and Silti), Dawuro ( Gena Bosa,), Gamo zone (Chencha and Demba), Gofa zone (Gizie Gofa, Melekoza, Uba Debretsehay and Demba Gofa), Gurague (Sodo, Enmor, Meskan, and Mareko). Dire Dawa: Dire Dawa city Harari: Harar city Addis Ababa: flood prone kebeles Landslide High Risk Areas: Oromia: Arsi (Aseko), West Guji (Gelana, Bulle Hora and Abaya), North Shoa (Were Jarso, Gimbichu, and Dera), East Shoa (Abuna, Gende Bert, Jildu, and Meta Robi), Jimma zone (Jimma, Dodo, Goma, Seka Cherkosa), East Wollega (Sasiga). Amhara: East Gojam (Awebel,), North Shoa (Antsokia, Baso and Worana, Tarma Ber and Merabete). SNNP: South Omo (South Ari, and Hamer), Hadiya (Shashego, and Soro), Wolayita (Boloso Sore, Ofa, Damot, Sore and Boloso Bombe), Kenbata Tenbaro (Kacha Bira), Segen (Konso and Burji), Sidama (Dale, Loka Abaya, Hawassa zuria, Shebedino, Wenesho and Hula), Gedio (Bule and Wenago), Dawuro (Loma), Gamo zone (Chencha, Dita, Bonkie, West Garadula, Kenba, Kucha,), Amaro special woreda, Gofa zone ( Melekoza, Oba Debretsehay, Denba Gofa, Kercha and Arbaminch zuria), Keffa zone (Dicha, Dita, Cheta, and Ginbo), Gurage (Sodo, Meskan, Mareko, Mihur and Aklil). 4 Tigray: Central Tigray zone (Kolla Tenben and Aksum). Dire Dawa City Council: Dire Dawa city 2020 Belg season flood incidences and response The overlap of the kiremt season with the extended belg season in some areas will add to already ongoing flood and landslide incidents. Flood incidences reported during the belg season Flood incidences were reported from Somali, Oromia, SNNP and Afar regions as well as from Dire Dawa City Council. The following are the list of regions and woredas affected. In total, the floods affected 470,163 people, of whom some 301,284 people were displaced in these areas. o In SNNP, 26 woredas (Beauba Tsehay, Malkoza, Oyda, Geza Gofa, Humbo, Shasego, Limo, Gerese, Gach Baba, Wera Dijo, Sankura, Lanfaro, Konta special woreda, Basketo special woreda, Debub Ori, Jinka, Baka Dewesa, Malie, Kucha, West Abaya, Arbaminch Zuria, Bonkie, Konta special woreda, Wara Dijo, Amaro special woreda and Banestemay). o In Oromia, 8 woredas (Digulina Tijo, Chole, Kiramu, Siraro, Shala, Adolared, Gelana and Bure. In Afar, 8 woredas (Telalak, Dubti, Kuneba, Erebti, Korina Bidu). o In Somali, 25 woredas (Shilabo, Debewoini, Dolobay, West Imi, Korahae, Dollo Ado, Guradamole, Mubarek, Hudet, Babile, Gursum, Kebri Beyah, Muyu Muluke, Ayu, Gotabik, Gabalo, Denan, Gode, Kelafo, Emi Bari, Mustahil, Alele, Bereano, Adele and Ferfer). o In Dire Dawa city council, Dire Dawa city. Landslides: Landside incidences were reported in SNNP (6 woredas) and Amhara (1 woreda) regions. The report shows 64 households affected, 9 households displaced, 15 deaths, 57 livestock killed, 23.25 hectares of crops land damaged and 2 houses destroyed in these woredas. Hailstorms: Close to 130 hectares of cropland was damaged due to hailstorms
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