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Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking

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Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking THE UNIVERSITY OF HULL Punctuated Equilibrium or the Orthodox Cycle? Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking being a Thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of Hull By James Silverwood, BA (Hons.), MA September, 2016 2 Abstract This thesis provides a study of United Kingdom (UK) macroeconomic policy and economic ideas. Specifically, the thesis seeks to explore the reasons when and why UK macroeconomic policy and economic ideas exhibits change or continuity. The central contention of this thesis is that the model of punctuated equilibrium provides a flawed understanding and explanation of when and why policies and idea exhibit continuity and change in UK macroeconomic policymaking. In particular, the thesis seeks to fill two gaps in our existing knowledge of UK economic policymaking, which emerge from critical literature reviews. The first gap pertains to the need for greater specificity in our understanding and definition of orthodox UK macroeconomic policy. The second gap relates to the need for a superior understanding of when and why UK macroeconomic policy and economic ideas exhibits change and continuity. The original contribution of this thesis to the literature on UK economic policymaking arises from the two research findings generated in Chapters Three and Four, which are then tested in a series of case-study chapters in the second half of the thesis. The first research finding is the provision of greater precision in our understanding and definition of orthodox macroeconomic policy. The second research finding is the identification of a historical pattern in UK macroeconomic policymaking, which is named the orthodox cycle. The orthodox cycle utilises the new understanding and definition of orthodox macroeconomic policy to show the continuity of orthodox policy and ideas in UK macroeconomic policymaking, through a series of distinct phases, in the aftermath of crises and changes in government. 1 Acknowledgements I would like to give special thanks to my partner, Nicole Woodford. Her love, kindness, intelligence and support have been an enormous source of strength over the last year and a half. I’d also like to thank my parents. The support they have given me over the last five years and mere words are not adequate enough to express how important they have been in the completion of this thesis. This thesis is a small recompense for all their help and effort. I’d like to thank other members of my family including my grandparents, Joyce and Denis Silverwood. They have been the most wonderful grandparents anyone could wish for. I would also like to thank Elizabeth, my sister, her partner Ashley and my nephew Joshua, who has brought us such happiness. Finally, I’d just like to say thank you to Lynn and Ian Woodford who have shown me such kindness and generosity. A special thank you is given to my supervisor, Simon Lee. I would never have considered embarking on a PhD without his encouragement. Thus, for all the wonderful experiences I have had completing this thesis, I owe Simon a deep debt of gratitude that I can never really repay. Of course, it goes without saying that Simon’s academic expertise has been essential throughout the last five years. I’d also like to thank my secondary supervisors Richard Woodward and Elizabeth Monaghan who have both gone far beyond the call of duty on my behalf on many occasions. Other members of the Politics Department at the University of Hull who have offered me help or support in various ways over the years include Matt Beech, Justin Morris, Mahrukh Doctor, Cristina Leston-Badiera, Rudi Wurzel, Sophie Dillon and Hannah Cooper. I’m also fortunate to have a wonderful group of friends, who have given help and support in the completion of the thesis in so many ways the list would be endless. Although far from an exhaustive list, I’d like to make special mention of 2 Ben Lewis, Leigh Ellis, Daniel Moss, Adrian Ellis, Steven Moody, Ashley Peace, Tom Westerling, Alun Thomas and Dave Ramsden. I’d also like to mention some of my fellow PhD students (and friends) who I have met during my PhD journey. These include Fiona Ritchie, Sophia Dingli, Sameera Khalfey, Adrian Paylor, Webster Kameme and Xingjian Yan. However, I’d like to make specific highlight of Jeremy Moulton. When I needed help, Jeremy opened the doors of his home to me and it will never be forgotten. 3 Contents Abstract 1 Acknowledgements 2 Tables and Figures 8 1 Introduction 12 Summary of Research Findings 13 Thesis Organisation 14 2 Understanding Why Policies Change in Models of Public and Economic Policymaking 19 Introduction 19 Our Current Understanding of Public Policy 20 Models of Public and Economic Policymaking 22 Conclusion 46 3 Change and Continuity in UK Economic Policymaking during the Interwar Years 47 Introduction 47 Our Current Understanding of ‘orthodox’ Economic Policy in the Interwar Period 48 UK Economic Policymaking in Response to the 1914 Financial Crisis, First World War and the Recession of 1919-1921 50 Change and Continuity in UK Economic Policymaking in the 1930s 65 4 UK Economic Policymaking in Response to the Economic Crises of 1929-1931 68 Conclusion 83 4 Change and Continuity in UK Economic Policymaking from April 1975 to April 1997 86 Introduction 86 Change and Continuity in UK Economic Policymaking in the 1970s and 1980s 87 Our Current Understanding of ‘orthodox’ Economic Policy in the 1970s and 1980s 89 UK Economic Policymaking in Response to the Economic Crises of the 1970s 90 The Phase of Orthodoxy in Macroeconomic Policy after the 1981 Budget, the Lawson Boom and UK Economic Policymaking in Response to the ERM Crisis and Recession of 1990-1992 113 Conclusion 127 5 Methodology 129 Introduction 129 The New Understanding of Orthodox UK Macroeconomic Policymaking 129 The Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking 133 Methodology 144 Research Design 144 Research Methods 150 Data Collection 151 5 Data Analysis 154 Conclusion 155 6 Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking during the Blair Government of the 1st May 1997 to the 6th June 2001 156 Introduction 156 The Orthodoxy Phase in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking after the 1997 General Election 158 The Continuity of Orthodox Economic Ideas after the 1997 General Election 175 Conclusion 190 7 Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking during the Blair Governments of the 7th June 2001 to the 26th June 2007 193 Introduction 193 The Continuity of Orthodox Monetary Policy after the 2001 General Election 195 The Departure from Orthodox Fiscal Policy at the 2002 Budget 202 Conclusion 227 8 Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking during the Brown Government of the 27th June 2007 to the 5th May 2010 229 Introduction 229 The Crisis Phase in Macroeconomic Policymaking from the 16th September 2007 231 The Consolidation Phase in Monetary Policymaking from 16th June 2008 to the 5th May 2010 236 6 The Temporary Deviation Phase in Fiscal Policymaking from the 24th November 2008 to the 8th December 2009 248 The Consolidation Phase in Fiscal Policymaking from the 9th December 2009 to the 2010 General Election 257 Conclusion 262 9 Change and Continuity in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking during the Cameron-Clegg and Cameron Governments of the 12th May 2010 to the 13th July 2016 265 Introduction 265 The Continuation of the Consolidation Phase in Monetary Policymaking from the 11th May Onwards 267 The Orthodoxy Phase in Fiscal Policymaking from the ‘Emergency’ Budget on the 22nd July Onwards 278 Continuity of Orthodox Economic Ideas during the Cameron-Clegg Government and Cameron Government 292 Conclusion 304 10 Conclusion 307 Future Research Agenda 312 Appendix 1 314 Appendix 2 316 Appendix 3 318 Bibliography 323 7 Tables and Figures Chapter Three Table One: Economic Performance of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, 1919-1924 55 Table Two: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1929-1932 70 Table Three: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1932-1936 72 Table Four: Economic Performance of Monetary Policy, 1931-1936 78 Chapter Four Table One: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1974-1979 94 Table Two: Economic Performance of Public Expenditure, 1974-1979 96 Table Three: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1979-1983 101 Table Four: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy in Cyclically-Adjusted Terms, 1979-1983 103 Table Five: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1987-1991 114 Table Six: Economic Performance of the Public Finances, 1990-1994 124 Table Seven: Economic Performance of Fiscal Policy, 1994-1997 127 Chapter Five Figure One: UK Macroeconomic Policy Orthodoxy 131 Figure Two: The Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking 135 Figure Three: The Historical Precedent for the Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking from 1914-1929 140 Figure Four: The Historical Precedent for the Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking from 1929 to 1934 141 Figure Five: The Historical Precedent for the Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking from 1974 to 1990 142 8 Figure Six: The Historical Precedent for the Orthodox Cycle in UK Macroeconomic Policymaking from 1990 to 1997 143 Chapter Six Table One: RPIX (Excluding Mortgage Interest) Annual Percentage Change during 1997-2000 165 Table Two: Government Borrowing and National Debt during the 1997-2001 Parliament 170 Table Three: Public Expenditure and Taxes during the 1997-2001 Parliament 172 Chapter Seven Table One: Government Borrowing and National Debt during the Blair governments, 2001-2007 205 Table Two: Public Expenditure
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