The Wisdom of the Crowd
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Acknowledgements We are hugely grateful to the We would also like to acknowledge the 65 individuals who agreed support of our partners for this initiative: to take part in this publication • We are grateful to PwC, our supporter and contribute their valuable for this publication. PwC provides assurance, tax and advisory services to time and reflections – without the public sector, including a specialist them, this publication would practice in health care. In 2013, PwC not be possible. is working with people across the health service and the public to debate what The publication would also not have the NHS will – and should – look like been possible without the endeavour, in ten years’ time. For more information, determination and trademark speed of see www.pwc.co.uk/nhs75 Nicholas Timmins, who has travelled the length and breadth of the country to interview many of the contributors and bring their thoughts to life in this timely publication. As ever, we are indebted to Nick and look forward to further episodes in 2018 and 2023… We are also grateful to Joanne Allison, Editorial Project Manager, who worked long hours with patience and care to bring the book to fruition. • We are also grateful to Health Service Journal for being our media partner for this publication. In particular, we are grateful to its Editor, Alastair McLellan, for his valuable contributions. THE WISDOM OF THE CROWD 65 views of the NHS at 65 Edited by Nicholas Timmins JULIA CUMBERLEGE STEPHEN DORRELL ANDY BURNHAM PATRICIA HEWITT ARA DaRZI PATRICK JENKIN PARLIAMENtaRIANS KEN CLARKE NORMAN LAMB PAUL BURSTOW ALAN MILBURN SHIRLEY WILLIAMS DAVID OWEN NORMAN FOWLER NORMAN WaRNER FRANK DOBSON MALCOLM GRANT THE WISDOM LIAM DONALDSON SALLY DaVIES DAVID BENNETT DAVID FLORY P TAUL BA E OSFFICIAL ANDY MCKEON DAVID NICHOLSON DAVID BEHAN BRUCE KEOGH HUGH TAYLOR TIM KELSEY VICTOR ADEBOWALE GILL MORGAN STEPHEN COLLIER PAUL JENKINS LINDSEY DaVIES PETER CaRTER CLARE GERADA MERRICK COCKELL CIARÁN DEVANE TIMOTHY EVANS CaROL BLACK NORMAN WILLIAMS MICHAEL DIXON HEALTH AND SOCIAL ANDREW DILLON CARE LEADERS JULIE MOORE NIALL DICKSON KATHERINE RAKE MICHAEL O’HIGGINS TERENCE STEPHENSON DAVID MOBBS MARK PORTER OF THE CROWD MIKE FaRRAR RANDEEP RAMESH STEPHEN THORNTON PAUL CORRIGAN JEREMY TAYLOR BEN PAGE NONEIL BAC INDEPENDENT COMMENtatORS PATRICK NOLAN ROY LILLEY POLLY TOYNBEE CHRIS HaM GEOFF MULGAN MATTHEW TAYLOR ALAStaIR MCLELLAN KAREN JENNINGS ROBERT FRANCIS JULIAN LE GRAND 4 The Wisdom of the Crowd: 65 views of the NHS at 65 About this publication On 5 July 2013, the NHS reached its 65th anniversary. To mark this milestone, the Nuffield Trust has been carrying out a number of activities to promote debate and discussion on the current state of the NHS and social care system, and its future prospects. This publication is the centrepiece of our activities. Enclosed are interviews and essays with a cast list of 65 health and political leaders, consisting of current and former health secretaries and ministers, senior civil servants, clinicians, managers, academics, patient representatives, journalists and other key individuals. It is edited by Nuffield Trust Senior Associate Nick Timmins, who has reprised a role he performed for the Nuffield Trust back in 2008 when we took a similar temperature check of the views of leaders at the time of the NHS’s 60th anniversary. The contributors have been asked to provide their assessment of what they believe the state of the NHS and social care system to be at this moment in time and what they think the service will look like in the future. Critically, they have been asked to reflect on what they think needs to happen now and over the coming years to ensure the NHS and social care system is viable and fit for purpose in ten years’ time. This is not a representative group per se, but we have endeavoured to provide perspectives from a broad range of individuals that either are, or have previously been, in positions to help shape the direction of the health and social care system. We are indebted to each author, and our only regret is that we were unable to publish more contributions. This publication is a special edition of the Nuffield Trust’s Viewpoint series, which provides a platform for UK and international health leaders to explore, discuss and debate health care reform issues. It forms part of our work programme on NHS and social care reform. The views expressed in this publication are the authors’ own, and do not necessarily represent those of the Nuffield Trust. Find out more online at: www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-65 5 Contents Foreword by Dr Jennifer Dixon CBE 6 Health and social care leaders Overview by Nicholas Timmins 8 Professor Dame Carol Black DBE 126 Dr Peter Carter OBE 128 Parliamentarians Councillor Sir Merrick Cockell 131 Rt Hon. Andy Burnham MP 20 Stephen Collier 134 Rt Hon. Paul Burstow MP 24 Professor Lindsey Davies 138 Rt Hon. Kenneth Clarke QC MP 26 Ciarán Devane 140 Baroness Julia Cumberlege CBE 32 Niall Dickson 142 Rt Hon. Professor the Lord Darzi 35 Sir Andrew Dillon 145 Rt Hon. Frank Dobson MP 39 Dr Michael Dixon 147 Rt Hon. Stephen Dorrell MP 43 Professor Timothy Evans 149 Rt Hon. the Lord Fowler 47 Mike Farrar CBE 152 Rt Hon. Patricia Hewitt 50 Dr Clare Gerada 156 Rt Hon. the Lord Jenkin 55 Paul Jenkins OBE 159 Norman Lamb MP 58 David Mobbs 161 Rt Hon. Alan Milburn 60 Dame Julie Moore DBE 164 Rt Hon. the Lord Owen 66 Michael O’Higgins 166 Rt Hon. the Lord Warner 68 Dr Mark Porter 168 Rt Hon. Baroness Williams 73 Dr Katherine Rake OBE 170 Professor Terence Stephenson 172 Officials Professor Norman Williams 175 Lord Adebowale CBE 78 Paul Bate 80 Independent commentators David Behan CBE 82 Dr Neil Bacon 178 Dr David Bennett 86 Professor Paul Corrigan CBE 180 Professor Dame Sally Davies 90 Robert Francis QC 182 Professor Sir Liam Donaldson 93 Chris Ham CBE 184 David Flory CBE 97 Karen Jennings 186 Professor Sir Malcolm Grant 99 Professor Julian Le Grand 188 Tim Kelsey 105 Roy Lilley 192 Professor Sir Bruce Keogh 108 Alastair McLellan 194 Andy McKeon 112 Geoff Mulgan 197 Dame Gill Morgan DBE 114 Dr Patrick Nolan 200 Sir David Nicholson 117 Ben Page 202 Sir Hugh Taylor 121 Randeep Ramesh 204 Jeremy Taylor 206 Matthew Taylor 209 Stephen Thornton 211 Polly Toynbee 213 6 The Wisdom of the Crowd: 65 views of the NHS at 65 Foreword by Dr Jennifer Dixon CBE The Nuffield Trust commissioned essays on the NHS’s 60th birthday – why do it again at its 65th? Because, as many in this volume agree, the NHS is facing a watershed moment. After belt tightening over the last four years, and managing largely successfully, the next five to ten years must be the most difficult in its history. It isn’t the reforms, distracting though they are, it’s the money. The NHS has faced poor budget settlements before, but nothing like what is likely. The good news is that there seems to be a consensus, at least among contributors to this volume, that the NHS should continue as a comprehensive service, free at the point of use. To a large extent there is also political consensus over what it should look like. After all, look at other health systems across the developed world and you see a technical evolutionary path which is very similar to that in the NHS, as well as better care and health outcomes helped by better information and patient/ public assertiveness. Political tussles over the place of provider competition are somewhat quaint next to these long-run changes. But long-run evolution in health care on the rising tide of economic growth is one thing, managing short- to medium- term financial shocks, then a likely ‘new normal’ of parsimony is another. Here the NHS’s strengths and weaknesses tilt towards inherent weakness. On the one hand, there is the ability to make change centrally and relatively quickly: cuts; reconfigurations; big invest-to-save decisions using capital; price and wage controls; and to articulate this to the public on a national scale. Other countries look on with envy at this level of control. On the other, there is no one answer visible centrally as to how to improve efficiency – it will be the result of a myriad of everyday decisions at the frontline among staff who must be inspired, given autonomy, and held to account. Foreword 7 But on the former, big central decisions can be (and often are) bottled, in part due to politics, or can be plain wrong based on weak evidence or argument. On the latter, politicians can have very little idea what will improve efficiency locally. But more local autonomy without the right kind of accountability risks inertia at best or well-meaning staff doing the wrong thing because they lack information on the impact of their efforts. The essential ingredients here must be information, openness, earned trust and respectful dialogue between the frontline and those making national decisions. The path to chart over the next five to ten years must surely be a far more intelligent blend of the top-down bottom-up dynamic than we’ve seen over the last decade. The essential ingredients here must be information, openness, earned trust and respectful dialogue between the frontline and those making national decisions to thrash out creative solutions. There’s plenty of talent and motivation around, particularly on the shop floor; what is needed is the injection of a very different culture starting at the top. But that’s my diagnosis.