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Stock Market Simulation Project Number: DZT-0901 STOCK MARKET SIMULATION An Interactive Qualifying Project Report: Submitted to the faculty of Worcester Polytechnic Institute In partial fulfillment of the requirements for The Degree of Bachelor of Science By ________________________ ______________________ John Austin Margaret Allard ________________________ ______________________ William Barges Chunwei Kuo Approved by Project Advisor: Dalin Tang __________________________ Date: December 17, 2009 Abstract The objectives of this project were to research and explain the fundamentals of the stock market and to practice the skills necessary to make successful trades within the market. A four member team investigated the creation of the modern stock market, the histories of NYSE and NASDAQ, and the political factors that affect the stock market. Members also performed an eight-week stock market simulation, each specializing in a particular trading strategy and sector of the market. One member used fundamental analysis investing with a diverse portfolio; another used company history and projected growth to invest in the life sciences, the third member used historical analysis to invest in the gaming industry, and the last member used the income and growth strategies to invest specifically in shoe manufacturing and technology companies. Only the portfolio that focused upon the gaming industry produced a profit, while the other portfolios lost money. The results indicated that (a) companies that respond to customer feedback tend to succeed; (b) the gaming industry is running at full steam and that now is a good time to invest; (c) basing your trading decisions on the quality of a product or service is only useful in some sectors, like technology, while it is less useful in other sectors, like banking; and (d) finally, it was concluded that investing in the life sciences is a risky venture, because developing technology is kept far from the investors’ evaluation and loss of FDA approval can cause unpredictable and devastating losses in stock value. 1 Acknowledgements We would like to thank Professor Dalin Tang for his tireless guidance and the advice he has given. In addition, Investopedia deserves thanks for providing the great simulator we used to trade our stocks and manage our portfolios. 2 Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 2 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 5 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 10 1.1 Goals .................................................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Project Overview ................................................................................................................. 12 Chapter 2: Stock Market Overview ............................................................................................... 13 2.1 The Creation of the Modern Stock Market .......................................................................... 13 2.2 History of NYSE ................................................................................................................. 14 2.3 History of NASDAQ ........................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Political Factors Affecting the Stock Market ...................................................................... 16 Chapter 3: Online Stock Market Simulators................................................................................. 19 Chapter 4: Diversified Portfolio Utilizing Fundamental Analysis ................................................ 21 4.1 Strategies employed............................................................................................................. 21 4.2 Companies Chosen and Reasons ......................................................................................... 21 4.3 Weekly Simulation Reports ................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 5: Investing in the Life Sciences using Company History and Projected Growth ........... 37 5.1 Companies Chosen and Reasons ......................................................................................... 37 3 5.2 Weekly Simulation Report .................................................................................................. 45 Chapter 6: Video Game Industry Stocks with Historically Strong Market Performance .............. 57 6.1 Strategies Employed ............................................................................................................ 57 6.2 Companies Chosen and Reasons ......................................................................................... 57 6.3 Weekly Simulation Report .................................................................................................. 68 Chapter 7: Investing in Technology and Shoe Manufacturing Sectors using the Income and Growth Strategies .......................................................................................................................... 78 7.1 Strategies employed............................................................................................................. 78 7.2 Companies Chosen and Reasons ......................................................................................... 80 7.3 Weekly Simulation Reports ................................................................................................. 88 Chapter 8: Comparison of Cumulative Results and Discussion .................................................. 100 8.1 Diversified Portfolio Utilizing Fundamental Analysis ...................................................... 100 8.2 Investing in the Life Sciences using Company History and Projected Growth ................. 103 8.3 Video Game Industry Stocks with Historically Strong Market Performance ................... 103 8.4 Investing in Technology and Shoe Manufacturing Sectors using the Income and Growth Strategies ................................................................................................................................. 110 Chapter 9: Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 112 References: .................................................................................................................................. 114 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 118 List of Stock Exchanges around the World ............................................................................. 118 4 List of Figures Figure 4.1. BAC Stock Chart for Week of Sept. 29 - Oct 2, 2009 ------------------- 28 Figure 4.2. SEIC Stock Chart for Week of Nov. 2 – Nov. 6, 2009 ------------------ 34 Figure 5.1: Stock prices in US dollars over time in months from May 2008 to March 2008 ------------------------------------- -------------- 39 Figure 5.2: Stock performance of Illumina --------------------------------------------- 44 Figure 7.1: Monthly performance of Google (SEP-OCT) ---------------------------- 94 Figure 7.2: Monthly performance of APPLE (SEP-OCT) ---------------------------- 94 Figure 7.3: Monthly performance of Nvidia (SEP-OCT) ----------------------------- 95 Figure 7.4: Monthly performance of Sprint (SEP-OCT) ------------------------------ 95 5 List of Tables Table 4.1. Transaction History -------------------------------------------------------------- 25 Table 4.2. Portfolio Value to Date ---------------------------------------------------------- 27 Table 4.3. Week End Portfolio -------------------------------------------------------------- 29 Table 4.4. Trades made during simulation week 3 --------------------------------------- 29 Table 4.5. Trades for the Week of Oct. 26, 2009------------------------------------------ 31 Table 4.6. Week End Portfolio -------------------------------------------------------------- 31 Table 4.7. Week End Portfolio -------------------------------------------------------------- 33 Table 4.8. Trades for the Week of Nov. 2, 2009 ------------------------------------------ 34 Table 4.9. Trades for the Week of Nov. 9, 2009 ------------------------------------------ 35 Table 5.1: Stock Information: Gilead ------------------------------------------------------- 38 Table 5.2: Stock Information: Genzyme --------------------------------------------------- 41 Table 5.3: Stock Information: Celgene ----------------------------------------------------- 43 Table 5.4: Stock Information: Illumina ----------------------------------------------------- 45 Table 5.5: Initial Purchases ------------------------------------------------------------------- 45 Table 5.6: Purchasing Stock in Swine Flu Vaccine Manufacturers --------------------- 47 Table 5.7: Transactions made on 09/28/2009----------------------------------------------- 48
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