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Sample Thesis Template Development of a Decision Support System for Resolving Conflicts in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Ahmed Abdelrehim A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Architecture, Planning and Landscape at The University of Newcastle upon Tyne 2012 Abstract The aim of this research is to develop a new methodology to assist decision-makers in assessing and measuring the degree of stakeholder conflict in environmentally sensitive areas. The research tried to answer the following question: How can the understanding of the magnitude and direction of consensus among conflicting stakeholders shape the management of an environmentally sensitive area? The case study area of Lake Maryout, Egypt, provided a good example of failure in the management of natural resources. It demonstrated that conflict among different stakeholders coupled with contradiction in the current policies and legislation play a role in exacerbating the deterioration of its environmental quality. The methodology therefore, is applied on simplified application of analytical hierarchical structure as an example to identify the main variables underpinning Lake Maryout‘s stakeholders‘ conflicting priorities. The research adopted both a qualitative and quantitative mixed methodology. The underpinning data was collected through expert and stakeholder questionnaires, interviews, public hearings, field survey and remotely sensed data. The research methodology applies Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), with the support of Geographic Information System (GIS), and the Driving Forces–Pressures–State–Impacts–Responses (DPSIR) analytical framework. The research has shed light on the dynamics of environmental conflicts, illustrating the formation and direction of disagreements between various stakeholders. Results showed that areas of consensus between various conflicting stakeholders could be identified, measured and located within a uniform scale. Results provided insight of how different sustainable development pillars interact with respect to the available alternative actions. Research results showed changes in synthesised stakeholder preferences when applying comparative differentiated power. Results indicated that environmental conflicts were exacerbated by the differentiated degree of stakeholder influence ratio. The analysis of Lake Maryout‘s environmental policies and legislations highlighted two main concerns. First, Sustainable development is difficult when the available alternatives i are conflicting; and secondly, the current Egyptian environmental policies create more environmental conflict than protection of the environment. The new methodology is intended to assist decision-makers overcome the limitations of the human mind to handle multiple objectives complex problems. It assists decision- makers to prioritise their decisions‘ elements in order to unveil the various alternatives of compromises and trade-offs. The research suggests that identifying the root causes and the particular areas of stakeholder conflict can assist decision-makers to take the necessary measures to minimise the possible consequences in order to improve the environmental quality of the natural resource. Results of this study provide a roadmap to improve policy-making and planning towards better environmental management of Lake Maryout. ii Acknowledgements I am thankful to my supervisor Dr. John Kamara, for his invaluable academic advice, comments, encouragement, friendly support and guidance for this research. I would like also to extend many thanks to all the members of school of architecture, planning and landscape and to the administration at the University of Newcastle for their full support, direct and indirect assistance during this research. Most importantly, I would like to thank my family. With all my love and respect I want to thank my mother who has been waiting for years to see this thesis finished. I would also like to express my particular gratitude to my brother who gave me remarkable support throughout the process. I would like to express my appreciation and my deepest apology to my children Leena and Kareem who had to waste all their weekends and holidays because of a busy father; and, above all, my dear wife Abeer who, was extremely supportive and helped me in many ways. This thesis would not have been completed without their continuous support, patience and love. Also I would like to thank all my colleagues and friends in Egypt and United Kingdom for their encouragement. Thanks also go to all ALAMIM project team and to Lake Maryout stakeholders and experts who agreed to be interviewed and attend exhausting meetings and to fill the questionnaires knowing that it‘s outside the scope of the project and continued to support for two years after the project has finished. Without the support of all the above mentioned, this research would not have been completed. iii Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………..…..……………i Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………….…………iii List of figures …..………………………………………………………..…..……….....xiv List of tables …………………………………………………………………….….……xx List of Abbreviations……………………………………………………….…..…….…xxv Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................…2 1.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Background .......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Environmental Sustainability ............................................................................. 11 1.3.1 Sustainable Development 13 1.3.2 Conflicting Objectives in Sustainable Development 16 1.3.3 Environmental assessment frameworks 21 1.3.4 DPSIR framework 22 1.4 The Research Problem ....................................................................................... 26 1.4.1 Description of the Lake Maryout Research Problem 27 1.5 Aim and Objectives............................................................................................ 30 1.5.1 Research objectives 30 1.5.2 Research question 31 1.6 Outline of the Thesis .......................................................................................... 31 Chapter 2. Public Participation in Environmental Decision-Making .........................37 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 37 2.2 Public Participation in the Planning Process ..................................................... 42 2.2.1 Public participation methods 45 2.2.2 Instruments and techniques for public participation 47 2.2.3 Standards for public participation processes 48 2.2.4 Adoption of participatory approaches 50 2.2.5 Public Participation in Policy-Making 52 2.3 Environmental Conflicts .................................................................................... 53 iv 2.3.1 Conflicting Land-Uses of Natural Resources 56 2.3.2 Environmental Decision-Making under Conflicting Objectives 58 2.3.3 Mapping Environmental Conflicts 59 2.4 Role of Stakeholders in the Decision-Making Process ...................................... 61 2.4.1 Concepts and definitions of stakeholders, public and community participation 70 2.4.2 Stakeholder analysis 72 2.4.3 Types of stakeholders 73 2.4.4 Stakeholder conflict 74 2.5 Existing Methodologies and Models for Decision Analysis.............................. 77 2.5.1 SWOT analysis 79 2.5.2 Cost-benefit analysis 79 2.5.3 Mental self-observation 80 2.5.4 The Choice Experiment (CE) 80 2.5.5 Willingness to Pay (WTP) concept 80 2.5.6 The conventional theory of economic policy 80 2.5.7 Conventional economic evaluation for environmental quality 80 2.5.8 Linear Goal Programming (LGP) 81 2.5.9 Merit Point System (MPS) 81 2.5.10 Normative, utility-based approaches 81 2.5.11 Regression models 81 2.5.12 Research surveys 81 2.5.13 The Delphi process 82 2.5.14 Decision Support Systems (DSS) 82 2.6 Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) ........................................................ 83 2.6.1 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 84 2.6.2 Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) 87 2.6.3 The Use of AHP in the Management of Natural Resources 90 v 2.7 The Need for New Environmental Decision-Support Methodology ................. 94 2.8 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................................ 95 Chapter 3. Research Methodology ...............................................................................102 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 102 3.2 SECTION I - RESEARCH METHODS .......................................................... 102 3.2.1 Research approach 102 3.2.2 Problem definition 104 3.3 Criteria for Applying the Research Methodology ........................................... 104 3.4 Justification for the Research Modelling Method ............................................ 105 3.5 Using AHP Methodology for the Development of Decision Model ............... 108 3.5.1 AHP model structure 110 3.5.2 Using AHP to develop the decision model 116 3.6 Added Value of the New Methodology ........................................................... 117 3.7 SECTION II – MODEL DESIGN ................................................................... 119 3.7.1 Development of the decision model
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