Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 59 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd RS PLTCL TDE O.7 O1 20) PP.5973 (2002) NO.1 VOL.17 LONDON S, CAS RRANK BY STUDIES PUBLISHED POLITICAL IRISH RNSP, the Politics at of Professor Visiting Paris.Rellow and Research Senior work on *Michael this Lavers article was completed while he was a Government of Ireland odce fr xml b te nleta Mnfso eerh Group as Research texts, Manifesto influential political the of by coding example for hand conducted intensive the beyond labour well very analysis content traditional, science political computing take in improvements These huge power. recent by possible made been have New in developments text computational analysis within political science LOCATING TDs IN POLICY SPACES: POLICY IN LOCATINGTDs h tcnqe s sd o nls al 8 nls lnug speeches language English 58 all analyse to used is technique the article, this In analysis. empirical and development theory for both of benefits huge with actors, political individual of of positions policy the estimation benefits systematic the allows This The record. parliamentary the legislature. as such text, of sources a electronic daunting and complex time, first in the for made analyse, to ability the from come analysis text computerised speeches of the to manifestos, analysis party analyse to used previously texts, political of analysis computerised the for technique new a adapts article This neetn qetos bu te oiin o idvda Irish space. policy interesting substantively a in individual debate 1991 the in of computerised speakers all locate of and speeches legislative of use positions context the in analysis the vindicate the results The 1991. about in legislators questions interesting when substantively answer analysis to second, text and, speeches computerised legislative to applied of validity was, the purpose examine The to dimension. first, anti-government versus pro- a on speakers individual the of one every locate to debate the in spoken words the use to was task the The coalition. of RáilPD Rianna future incumbent the on debate confidence 1991 October the in made WORDSCORING DÁIL SPEECHES DÁIL WORDSCORING ihe Lae* n Kneh Benoit Kenneth and aver* L Michael Department of PoliticalScience of Department TrinityDublin College Introduction BSTRACT AB Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 60 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd MG, o te oprtv Mnfso Poet CP (Budge, (CMP) Project Klingeman 1982, Manifestos Budge, and Laver 1987; Hearl, Comparative and Robertson the now (MRG), oiia pris Hr or ou i o txs eeae b individual by generated texts on is focus our Here parties. political issued manifestos election of scoring the beyond goes that texts political approach analysis. to text difficult very reliable and effective be cheap, fast, of form some to would access having without that ones including substantive new tackle problems to therefore and texts, political of forms to other coding computerised apply to possible becomes it however, coding, becomes profession the As computer of them. methodology the in experienced and issued confident increasingly that parties the those and with texts of results the positions policy comparing the scoring of methods by traditional more using obtained techniques new the of validity new, relatively are texts political analyzing the assess to sense made has it for methods computerised Rinally,because standpoint. practical a from these simply gains coding enormous promises manifestos of coding of computerised for enterprise method the successful a resource-intensive, extremely is hand by because manifestos Second, scientists. political to value research great of therefore are and parties, political of positions policy the of statements substantive important considered party are manifestos project, CMP the motivate that reasons important the all several for for Rirst, reasons. manifestos, party of analysis the on focused has Bara, 2001; Mansergh, and Giannetti 2001). Vries, de 2001; Garry, 2001; Garry,and (Laver authors of number Pennings,and Kleinnijenhuis 2000; replicating a by published been recently analysis, have sources, data independent completely text computerised of otherwise. doing implementations in Successful involved costs huge the of because simply dataset existing an to resort to need no with analyst, specific a of needs research the to according documents of recoding and coding effective and fast of the of all recode to documents involved needed in a manner more suitable to been the application at hand. post-war have would in that effort positions phenomenal policy the party of because been part large in has on this recently Until Europe. western data time-series sought have support widespread found not has within the profession, the CMP data have been widely used by that many who competition party of theory Budge 1994; hs sn a e poaiitc wr-crn ehd o computerised for method word-scoring probabilistic new a using this We debates. legislative the in do made speeches of form the in legislators In this paper we present an application of computerised analysis of analysis computerised of application an present we paper this In texts political of coding computer the on work published all Nearly prospect the offers now however, analysis, content coded Computer et al et ., 2001). While grounded in a very specific saliency specific very a in grounded While 2001). ., RS PLTCL STUDIES POLITICAL IRISH 60 et al. et , Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 61 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd n sbtniey cnldn b daig esn fr uue ss of speeches. legislative uses in future for lessons computerised textanalysisininvestigatingthepolicypositionscontained drawing by concluding substantively, and then present and discuss the results of our analysis both methodologically We analyse. we texts the describe briefly we Next manifestos. party than rather speeches legislative to this applying from arising issues discuss and the both opposition. the and within government coalition splits potential for looks to specifically and legislator, the has individual the of level it the at Ireland in differences where intra-party and inter- context a explore in to us allows Substantively, it payoffs. coding huge generate to potential computer of use the Irish evaluate individual of positions the Methodologically,to us space. allows policy this common a in estimate legislators to is aim Our government. coalition RáilPD Rianna incumbent the of future the on 1991, October in held confidence, of debate acrimonious and long a during TDs Irish by made speeches the of analysis the to this applying (2002), Garry and text analysis that has been developed and found effective by Laver, Benoit prah cmue cdn te M dt ad plig hs o the Budge see itself, CMP the to by area this in this dictionary-based applying and alternative data Penningsin found be can parliament, Ror (2002). European essays recent CMP Vries, An the de coding (2001). by computer approach, declarations, Mansergh government and Irish Giannetti as and well German as for manifestos, implemented Italian and Dutch been for and (2001) Garry by manifestos subsequently party Norwegian has and (2000), Garry and Laver by described is Ireland and Britain in manifestos party of positions policy social and economic the estimating to approach of this application successful recent A analysis. under texts the of positions to subjected policy the of estimates derive to then order in technique scaling of form some are categories particular into fall to of observed frequencies words relative The positions. policy particular be with to associated exploration, empirical by guided judgement a as subjective analyst, of the matter by priori a deemed words key of lists are dictionaries the frequencies of words found in predefined coding These dictionaries. count essentially analysis text computerised of techniques Traditional to developing an appropriate coding dictionary upon which to ground to which upon dictionary coding appropriate remains an it developing to technique computerised a is it labour-intensive in that very time considerable and effort must be applied that fact the despite Rirst, In what follows we first outline the word-scoring technique we use we technique word-scoring the outline first we follows what In While While this works technique well it has two paradoxical disadvantages. The Word-ScoringThe TextComputerised toApproach Analysis OAIG D I PLCY SPACES Y POLIC IN TDS LOCATING 61 et al. et (2001). Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 62 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd S eeec txs Ti soe s n fet cniinl siae f the of estimate word conditional dimension a on text effect any of in position is score This texts. reference dictionary based computer coding techniques, in which the development the which in techniques, coding computer based traditional dictionary to contrast stark no in with is seconds This whatsoever. of intervention matter human a in texts reference the from calculated be of reference texts on policy dimension dimension policy on texts reference of set the of positions known the and probabilities conditional these Using e qatt i te odsoig prah Ti i te conditional the is This approach. word-scoring probability the in quantity key of the calculation the allowing text, in each used words of all frequencies is analyst the which in texts virgin interested. new of analysis computerised the calculate to used matrix of is word scores that replaces traditional coding dictionaries in the but information, substantive new no provides texts reference the of analysis computer The role. same the fulfil would analysis content hand-coded prior for even or data confident survey is mass example analyst the which in estimates independent any but Laver, investigation. under surveys, expert from estimates independent dimensions these take Garry and Benoit policy the on texts reference technique The 1997. in requires that there manifestos be independent estimates of the policy positions of the party Irish of analysis an for texts in in 1997, party and manifestos Irish 1992 party manifestos as reference British of positions policy the of analysis an for texts reference as 1992 well-known with texts in manifestos party British use (2002) Garry and Laver,Benoit example, reference of set a Ror interested. is analyst the which in dimensions policy the on a positions is there of Rirst, analysis following. the preliminary involves essentially and Benoit but Laver, (2002) in Garry fully described is technique This researcher. the by calls judgement subjective no uses and dictionaries predefined use not first principles a probabilistic technique for coding political text that does from developed have (2002) Garry and Benoit Laver, coding, computer coding computer the comprise that the lists in dictionary. word freedom considerable the has of typically construction analyst the that sense the in subjective ultimately remains technique numerical highly this Second, inappropriate. dictionary coding given any render my context and time the in analysis, a in situation which changes in the lexicon across political wd Given Given the power of modern computers, the matrix of word scores can hs rlmnr aayi o rfrne et osre te relative the observes texts reference of analysis preliminary This of benefits full the realise to attempt an in problems these Addressing on dimension dimension on w . 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Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 63 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd estimated positionofvirgintext The knowledge. prior no has analyst the which about text, virgin any available. become investigation under dimensions policy the or appropriate, whenever improved estimates of the positions of these on deemed is texts reference of set new a whenever recalculated instantly be to scores word of matrix the allows technique word-scoring The analyst. the of part the on time of weeks requires that effort research a is scratch from dictionary coding computer new To a stage. test every and develop research task,involvingsubstantivejudgementstomadebytheanalystat human time-consuming and major a is dictionary coding computer a of et o te iesos ne ivsiain Te eeec texts, of is reference analyst human The more. much and The dictionary coding a by done investigation. previously everything under do positions their of estimates of the dimensions with combined set the a on with texts dictionary these of coding positions policy the of estimates of matrix a and computer texts reference traditional the replaces that are scores then applied to motorcycle party word manifestos. In a nutshell, our derive new approach to or used be books not should Travel example, for texts. manuals, repair reference the as meaning, general same the with lexicon same the having of sense the in type, same the of that means This texts. reference independent expert advice is the needed to ensure that the reference texts are from derived scores word using drawn be can texts virgin the of positions the about inferences valid that so analysis, under texts virgin the for scores word of sources appropriate political conventional within possible been analysis. text science not has that determine to something analyst significant, the statistically are texts allows between differences This estimated whether texts. virgin and the reference of the in estimates words of patterns provides the on based score, time text virgin the each of first uncertainty that the is scores) for CMP technique the computerised (e.g. techniques coding traditional over method this of the advantage considerable of very and positions final A the texts. of reference estimates independent the as units same the in to produce estimates of the positions of virgin texts that are denominated estimates these rescale to necessary is it texts, reference the in appear not word of patterns overlapping do that words use may texts virgin that fact the and texts, Given between usage authors.) the from available are analysis and Benoit Garry,Laver, this 2002. Necessary in computer software and the raw method text files analysed the replicate of description relative to full the their consult wishing should by (Readers weighted occurrence. text, virgin of the frequency in used words scored the Using the derived matrix of word scores, it is now possible to analyse to possible now is it scores, word of matrix derived the Using In all of this it is very important to ensure that the reference texts are texts reference the that ensure to important very is it this of all In OAIG D I PLCY SPACES Y POLIC IN TDS LOCATING v on dimension 63 d is sumofthescores Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 64 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd rsn we sitn tx aayi fo oe otx t aohr but another, to context one from analysis text shifting party when of present ever- are analysis issues These the speeches. legislative of from analysis the to analysis manifestos text computerised of techniques inter-party and intra- feasible. hitherto been of have than politics legislative analyses detailed and sophisticated more far the policy positions of individual legislators, opening up the possibility of n sacal rcr a te oss f h Oraha website: Oireachtas the of Houses the at record
oe idct te ein ad neqatl rne o ec gops standardised groups each of ranges interquartile and medians the indicate Boxes Standardised Score EAE N PO VRU AT- OENET DIMENSION, GOVERNMENT ANTI- VERSUS PRO- ON DEBATE (Box width proportional to number of speakers) of number to proportional width (Box RS PLTCL STUDIES POLITICAL IRISH Y AEOY R TD OR CATEGORY BY IUE 1 RIGURE 68 Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 69 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd motn tig a be t miti a la sne f appropriate of sense clear a The maintain speeches. to been parliamentary has to thing applied important as technique word-scoring these manifestos, language-blind the of party vindication considerable of a as seen analysis be must the results from away step first a Taking Durkan.ConnaughtonOwen,and TDs Rine Gaelfrom came all of Yatesspeechesanti-governmentPeterviolentlyBarry, andmost the while less hostile to the government than those of their colleagues includedmuch Ivan were speeches whose TDs Gael Rine Other minister. government Garret Taoiseach former from came a of thatlikelookedspeech his inRitzGerald,usage word pattern of who speech maverick main the side, Gael Rine the On TDs. Gael Rine of those from dimension government gave anti- pro-versus Daverne the on indistinguishable and been have Roche would that speeches McDaid, as such others while government, pro- avidly most the among being Cullimore, and Nolan as such some, in debate this in government the on negotiations. coalition future of anticipation soft being was he that debate when deriving the estimated positions reported in Appendix 1 and Tableand 1 Appendix in reportedpositions estimated the deriving when language English the of knowledge any of made was whatsoever use no sense itthelanguagetechnique blind,inrememberedisthe thatbe should Rirst, applied. be might word-scoring computerised suggests analysis material. raw available easily from datasets new exciting generate to easily and quickly potential considerable have does really technique the carefully, applied that, implies This parliament. in utter they words the upon solely based the for allowing first timethelocationofindividuallegislatorsinacommon policyspace, speeches, parliamentary in of analysis Party the to Labour manifestos the and of party analysis the from here methodological. migrated has government technique word-scoring The are drawn be in located. to conclusions PDs main the but convincingly the opposition, of be position could the debate the about questions intriguing some answer to English- us Substantively,allowed in this other 54 the speakers which on validity,language face good very with scale a of estimation the allowed it that in off, paid conservatism However,this positions. anti-government pro-and for texts reference confidence as leaders a party analysing in conservative was debate and in taking the set-piece speeches of government and opposition study current the sense, this In estimated. be to scales the on positions their and texts reference ina ál ak ec Ts ee mc mr vre bnh with bunch varied more much a were TDs bench back Ráil Rianna In this context it is worth taking note of the types of data to which this OAIG D I PLCY SPACES Y POLIC IN TDS LOCATING Conclusions 69 Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 70 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd 4. The fact that all raw scores are negative is entirely an artifact of the fact that two anti- two that fact the of artifact an entirely is negative are scores raw all that fact The 4. his because excluded be to had Dukes, Alan leader Gael Rine former speaker, One 3. or actual an with faced is government the when Ireland, in convention legislative The Irish the having 2. from arising issues constitutional interesting the side one on set We 1. the that feel we development.intellectualitsfurther investmentin considerable merits this similar, something or Given here, used have available. we approach are sources text appropriate a into sideways only range of different cultural not contexts, appropriate but backwards analysisas far back into time dataas systematic that of reach the provided extends Rome, approach this words, other or In available. were texts virgin Greece and reference ancient in politicians positionsofpolicyestimatethe to used beeasily as justcontrast,could in degreeanyreliabilityof validity.or techniqueThe demonstrated we here, retrospectestimateappliedpresentinwithpolicypositionscannot be but to used be can They prospect. in only work surveys) expert and studies the for conventionalmethodsestimatingforpositions such example(for election breakthrough considerable into another converted the ofpolitical Manyactors.positionspolicyof the systematic analysisof be is can This or form. in era, available politicalelectronic either any are in the these generated texts that extends toprovided applied vastly be can it technique the since technique Second, researcher.comparative serious the the of armoury methodological of feature empowering allow to tremendously a is language,itself in This calculated. be same to scores word appropriate the in were texts reference the that provided 1. The speeches analysed could have been delivered in any language at all, oenet pehs ee sd o aclt te od crs bt ny n pro- one only but scores, word the calculate speech. to government used were speeches government Irish had scores such available. been texts calculate reference language to possible perfectly been have would it Nonetheless words. language Irish for instance this in calculated be could scores no that so speeches reference in their Irish use not did leaders party the while in Irish, entirely was speech 1994. December in was election an without government another by replaced was legislature the of confidence the lost have to deemed government a that time only The one. call and legislature the election, an always almost practice of dissolve to obliged constitutionally not is president the circumstances the these matter in although a and as lost is been there has resigned motion has confidence government a Once resign. must motion confidence a converts this into a confidence motion. Under the Constitution, a government that loses threatened motion of no confidence proposed by the opposition, is that the government government. Irish the of that of subset a as website main legislatures RS PLTCL STUDIES POLITICAL IRISH Notes 70 Downloaded By: [Trinity College] At: 10:11 19 February 2008 171ips04.qxd 07/08/2002 08:50 Page 71 Page 08:50 07/08/2002 171ips04.qxd Budge, Ian, David Robertson and Derek Hearl, eds. 1987. 1987. eds. Hearl, Derek and Robertson David Ian, Budge, lnean Hn-itr Rcad ofret In ug, as ea, Torbjorn Keman, Hans Budge, Ian Hofferbert, Richard Hans-Dieter, Klingemann, Kleinnijenhuis, Jan and Paul Pennings. 2001. Measurement of Party Positions on the Basis the PartyPositions on of Measurement PaulPennings. 2001. and Jan Kleinnijenhuis, ar, on 20. Te optr oig f oiia Txs Rsls rm Britain, from Results Texts: Political of Coding Computer The 2001. John. Garry, Bara, Judith. 2001. Tracking Estimates of Public Opinion and Party Policy Intentions in Intentions Policy Party and Opinion Public of TrackingEstimates 2001. Judith. Bara, Pennings, Paul. 2002. of The Dimensionality the EU policy space, Policy in Parties Political Placing Garry. 2002. John and Benoit Kenneth Michael, Laver, Laver, Michael and Ian Budge, eds. 1992. 1992. eds. Budge, Ian and Michael Laver, Policy Estimating 2001. Mansergh. Lucy and Giannetti Daniela Miranda, Vries, De Tannenbaum. Eric and Bara Judith Volkens, Anrea Klingemann, Hans-Dieter Ian, Budge, miia etmto o te rfrne o pltcl cos Rcn pbiain i these in publications Shepsle) Recent A. Kenneth actors. (with include political fields of preferences the of estimation empirical current was His Galway. research interests College and are in theories of party competition and government formation and in the University Dublin at Sociology College Trinity and Politics at of Professor Science previously Political of Professor is LAVER MICHAEL Texts. Political from Positions Policy Estimating 2000. Garry. John and Michael Laver, eevd i PD rm avr Uiest i 19. drs: eatet f Political of Department Address: 1998. in