The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy John Arquilla s David Ronfeldt National Defense Research Institute R The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND’s National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Networks and netwars : The future of terror, crime, and militancy / John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt. p. cm. MR-1382 Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3030-2 1. Information warfare. 2. Cyberterrorism. I. Arquilla, John. II. Ronfeldt, David F. HV6773 .N47 2001 303.6'25—dc21 2001041739 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Peter Soriano © Copyright 2001 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2001 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email:
[email protected] To Dick O’Neill, for his stalwart support and keen eye PREFACE The fight for the future makes daily headlines.