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Harnessing Remote Sensing Derived Sea Level Rise Models to Assess Cultural Heritage Vulnerability: a Case Study from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

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Harnessing Remote Sensing Derived Sea Level Rise Models to Assess Cultural Heritage Vulnerability: a Case Study from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean sustainability Article Harnessing Remote Sensing Derived Sea Level Rise Models to Assess Cultural Heritage Vulnerability: A Case Study from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean Meghan C. L. Howey 1,2 1 Department of Anthropology, University of New Hampshire, 73 Main Street, Durham, NH 03824, USA; [email protected] 2 Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA Received: 20 October 2020; Accepted: 10 November 2020; Published: 12 November 2020 Abstract: Climate change threatens cultural heritage across the globe. Of its varied impacts, sea level rise is critically pressing because of the long relationship between humans and the ocean. Numerous cultural heritage sites lie on the world’s fragile coasts. Identifying cultural heritage sites at risk is an urgent need, but archaeological research programs do not always have the resources available to conduct large-scale cultural heritage vulnerability assessments. Given sea level rise poses myriad pressing issues, entities around the globe are developing sea level rise models for various management purposes (ecology, hydrology, real estate, etc.). These remote sensing-derived sea level rise models can be harnessed by archaeologists to assess cultural heritage site vulnerability. Here, such an analysis is realized for a northwest Atlantic Ocean coastal area experiencing relative sea level rise and with robust cultural heritage, including economically significant maritime heritage tourism. Combining archaeological and historic geospatial databases with LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-derived relative sea level rise models illuminates coastal New Hampshire’s cultural heritage vulnerability. This is informative for risk monitoring, mitigation, and preservation planning, especially for cultural heritage tourism. The analysis also raises the need for discussions around what kind and whose heritage gets priority in planning for future sea level rise impacts. Keywords: sea level rise; cultural heritage; risk; remote sensing; archaeology; LIDAR; GIS 1. Introduction It is well established that modern forces such as development, war, looting, and tourism-induced damage make tangible cultural heritage highly vulnerable to change [1–13]. Today, climate change poses a growing area of threat to cultural heritage sites. Groups from government entities to international organizations to indigenous communities to scholars are ever more aware of the fact that climate change “is eroding and will continue to erode our historic fabric, disturbing and destroying many archaeological, traditional, and historic sites” [14]; see also [15–20]. The impacts of climate change are here to stay and will cause further long-term changes in the climate system [21,22]. Sea level rise is one critical effect of climate change and there is high confidence its associated impacts will persist for millennia [22]. Global sea level rise is caused primarily by added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms. Global sea level rise has been monitored by satellites by NASA since 1993 [23,24]. These satellite altimetry data indicate the rate of global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) is 3.3 mm per year (Figure1). Sustainability 2020, 12, 9429; doi:10.3390/su12229429 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 9429 2 of 18 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 18 Figure 1. Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) as monitored by NASA satellites, indicating a rate of Figure 1. Global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) as monitored by NASA satellites, indicating a rate of change of 3.3 mm a year (credit: Goddard Space Flight Center, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea- levelchange/). of 3.3 mm a year (credit: Goddard Space Flight Center, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital- signs/sea-level/). Sea level rise is particularly pressing for cultural heritage management and risk mitigation because humansSea havelevel hadrise ais long particularly and intense pressing relationship for cultural with theheritage world’s management oceans [25 –and32]. risk Humans mitigation have beenbecause drawn humans to the have sea had and a its long resources and intense for hundreds relationship of thousands with the world’s of years oceans [33,34 ].[25 Today,–32]. Humans there is disproportionatehave been drawn anthropogenic to the sea and pressureits resources on the for world’s hundreds marine of thousands coasts [35 of,36 years]. Ever-increasing [33,34]. Today, human there populationis disproportionate presence anthropogenic has undercut the pressure resilience on of the coastal world’s and marine ocean ecosystems coasts [35,36 in]. a varietyEver-increasing of ways, includinghuman popula overfishing,tion presence nutrient has runo undercutff, shoreline the resilience development, of coastal chemical and pollution, ocean ecosystems alterations in of a bottomvariety of ways, including overfishing, nutrient runoff, shoreline development, chemical pollution, conditions, and dangers caused by atmospheric accumulation of CO2 emissions, catastrophic weather events,alterations global of bottom warming conditions, and ocean and acidification dangers caused [37,38]. by Today, atmospheric global coastal accumulat andion ocean of CO conditions2 emissions, are characterizedcatastrophic weather as depleted, events, degraded, global warming and distressed and ocean [39–41 acidification]. [37,38]. Today, global coastal and oceanThe consequent conditions reduction are characterized in ecosystem as depleted, services hasdegraded, profound and impacts distressed on the [39 human–41]. populations reliantThe on coastalconsequent resources reduction [37,38, 42in– 46ecosystem]. While the services distressed ha states profound of the ocean impacts is widely on discussedthe human as anpopulations ecological reliant crisis, iton also coastal concurrently resources presents [37,38,42 notable–46]. While risk for the decreasing distressed cultural state of services,the ocean including, is widely ofdiscussed focus here, as an cultural ecological heritage. crisis, Numerous it also concurrently and iconic culturalpresents heritagenotable sitesrisk acrossfor decreasing the world cultural lie on fragileservices, coasts includ [25ing,32, of]. focus Global here, modeling cultural has heritage. found Numerous that over and the nexticonic two cultural millennia, heritage up sites to 19% across of UNESCOthe world Worldlie on Heritagefragile coasts sites [25,32 will become]. Global submerged modeling by has rising found sea that level over and the storm next surges two millennia, [47]. up to 19% of UNESCO World Heritage sites will become submerged by rising sea level and storm Problemsurges [47]. Statement Identifying cultural heritage sites that are vulnerable in the face of sea level rise is an urgent Problem Statement need. While archaeologists have increasingly recognized this need, archaeological research programs do notIdentifying always have cultural the resources heritage availablesites that to are conduct vulnerable large-scale in the culturalface of sea heritage level riskrise assessments.is an urgent Archaeologistsneed. While archaeologists need to find have accessible increasingly and recognized affordable waysthis need, of conducting archaeological cultural research heritage program risks assessments.do not always have One solutionthe resources emerges available from to the conduct fact thatlarge many-scale entities,cultural heritage from local risk and assessments. regional municipalitiesArchaeologists to need national to find governments accessible to and global affordable environmental ways nonprofits,of conducting are developingcultural heritage spatialized risk seaassessments. level rise modelsOne solution for various emerges management from the purposes fact that (ecology, many entities, hydrology, from real local estate, and insurance, regional zoning,municipalities economy, to etc.). national Available governments geospatial mapsto global of projected environmental sea level rise nonprofits, coastal flooding, are developing even if not createdspatialized for archaeologicalsea level rise models purposes, for various can be productively management and purposes creatively (ecology, harnessed hydrology, by archaeologists real estate, forinsurance, the benefit zoning, of assessing economy, the vulnerabilityetc.). Available of culturalgeospatial heritage maps sites. of projected sea level rise coastal flooding,Here, sucheven analysisif not iscreated realized for for archaeological a coastal area of purposes, the northwest can Atlantic be productively Ocean that hasand rich creatively cultural heritageharnessed sites by andarchaeologists that is experiencing for the benefit many of of asses the esingffects the of vulnerability climate change of cultural seen globally, heritage including sites. sea levelHere, rise such [48 –analysis50]. Orienting is realized from for the a water,coastal coastal area of New the northwest Hampshire Atlantic is located Ocean in the that northwest has rich Atlanticcultural Oceanheritage (Figure sites2 and). In that addition is experiencing to experiencing many impacts of the fromeffects climate of climate change change today, seen coastal globally, New including sea level rise [48–50]. Orienting from the water, coastal New Hampshire is located in the northwest Atlantic Ocean (Figure 2). In addition to experiencing impacts from climate change today, coastal New Hampshire has a rich history of human
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