JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE

Tropical Cyclone KENNETH in the Comores and JRC Emergency Report #035

GDACS Red Alert for Mozambique, Comores 26th of April 2019

Figure 1 - KENNETH-19 Situation map ​ JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 3

1. Situation assessment 5 1.1 Meteorological Situation and assessment 5 1.2 Coastal Impact 6 1.4 Humanitarian Impact 7

2. Potential Development 10 2.1 Meteorological forecast 10 2.2 Meteograms for relevant locations in Mozambique 12 2.2 Hydrological Forecast 16 2.3 Impact Forecast 19 2.4 Chipembe Dam 20

3. European Copernicus Rapid Mapping Activation 23

4 Other activities in support to ERCC 24 4.1 JRC Support to ERCC 24 4.2 Virtual OSOCC 24 4.3 International Charter 24

5 Expected Updates 25

6. References and contact points within JRC 25

References 25

List of abbreviations and definitions 25

List of figures 26

List of tables 26

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Executive Summary

● Since 23 Apr 2019 the Tropical Cyclone Kenneth developed in the Indian Ocean, west of ​ ​ , investing Island and finally north Mozambique. It should be noted that Mozambique was recently affected by another severe Tropical Cyclone, TC IDAI, causing several hundreds fatalities.

● During the passage above Comoros, KENNETH affected Grande Comore island with ​ ​ fatalities and damage. As of 26 April at 8.00, UN OCHA reports that three people reported dead and at least 20 injured. In addition, 1 000 people have been displaced.

● The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) issued a RED alert for this ​ ​ event 2 days before the landfall of Tropical Cyclone KENNETH in Mozambique. ​ ​ ● Tropical Cyclone KENNETH made landfall between the districts of Macomia and Quissanga (Cabo Delgado Province, northern Mozambique) on the afternoon of 25 April. On 26 April at ​ ​ 6.00 UTC, its center was located approximately 50 km north-west of Meluco municipality (Cabo Delgado Province), with maximum sustained winds of 102 km/h. Media report one person dead, damages to health and school facilities and significant power outages, mostly in in the city of Pemba. ​ ​ ● According to the latest ECMWF ensemble prediction system forecast (2019-04-26 00 UTC) heavy precipitation (ensemble median exceeding 200 mm in next 10 days) is forecasted for Mozambique. High probability of exceeding the 300mm threshold in the next 10 days is forecasted for the coastal regions of Mozambique and border regions between Mozambique and .

● Based on GloFAS climatology model the most affected are the populated areas along the ​ ​ Rio Messalo and Rio Lurio Rivers in the coastal provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula. ​ ​ ​ ● A pre-tasking of the EU Copernicus Emergency Mapping service was performed on 24 April, ​ ​ on the basis of the expected landfall track from GDACS; the service was then activated to delineate the flooded areas in Mozambique (EMSR-927)

● The Chipembe Dam has been identified as significantly exposed. According to the ​ information coming from the field teams, the capacity of the dam has been already reached.

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

1. Situation assessment

1.1 Meteorological Situation and assessment Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall between the districts of Macomia and Quissanga (Cabo ​ ​ ​ ​ Delgado Province, northern Mozambique) on the afternoon of 25 April. On 26 April at 6.00 UTC, its ​ ​ center was located approximately 50 km north-west of Meluco municipality (Capo Delgado Province), with maximum sustained winds of 102 km/h (see details in the left panel of Figure 2). Since the current Report is focusing on the hydrological impact of TC Kenneth, emphasis is given on the past and anticipated precipitation. Figure 2 (right panel) shows the past accumulated total precipitation during the past 10 days as captured by NASA-GPM (NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Mission) whereas the anticipated (forecast) accumulated amount of total precipitation for the next 10 days based on the Median of ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) is shown in Section 2.1.

According to the Emergency Report by ARISTOTLE-ENHSP issued on 24 April 2019 on Severe Weather over Mozambique Channel the main point has been the intensity of torrential rainfall to the same regions that TC Kenneth is likely to bring over a period of a few days with 350-500 mm likely widely, perhaps as much as 800 mm in a few locations. This estimation of precipitation (overtopping 500 mm over a period of 10 days) has been confirmed also in the latest ARISTOTLE-ENHSP Monitoring Report issued on 25 April 2019 with many areas along the path of the cyclone to be in excess of 500 mm of rain, possibly up to 1000 mm in a few locations in northeastern Mozambique due to the likely slow moving nature of the system

Figure 2. Details of TC Kenneth’s track over Comoros and North Mozambique (left panel) ​ (source:GDACS, as of the latest bulletin of 25 April at 18 UTC ). Accumulated total precipitation during the past 7 days over the period of 19 to 25 April 2019 (right panel) as measured by NASA-GPM. JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

1.2 Coastal Impact GDACS estimation of the storm surge indicate a quite coherent value in the range 0.9-1.6 m for the 3 meteorological models and a similar impact for the GDACS standard model, 1.0 m. The maximum time is estimated today, late afternoon 25 April. No particularly high impact is estimated for Comores islands (0.5 m). Meteo France reported in his official bulletin a possible storm surge between 3 and 5 m which is not reflected in the GDACS estimate. http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=1000559 Max Location Time Height

GDACS standard model 1.0 m Ibo (Moz) 25 Apr 2019 16:00 UTC

HWRF 1.6 m Mipande, Foque, Ibo (Moz) 25 Apr 2019 15:30 UTC

ECMWF 0.9 m Mucojo, Ingoane, Foque, 25 Apr 2019 17:15 UTC Pangane (Moz)

GFS 1.1 m Mipande, Foque, Ibo (Moz) 25 Apr 2019 14:30 UTC

Figure 3: Impact of Storm surge on the costs of Mozambique ​

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Table 1: The list of impacted locations, using HWRF as meteorological input condition, is shown in ​ the table below.

1.4 Humanitarian Impact This is the first time that two strong tropical cyclones have hit Mozambique in the same season, with Tropical (March 2019) leaving more than 600 people dead in Mozambique alone.

As of 26 April at 14 UTC:

Comoros Prior to his landfall, Tropical Cyclone KENNETH passed through Comoros, affecting Grande Comore island with fatalities and damage. As of 26 April at 8.00, UN OCHA reports that three people were killed and at least 20 injured1. In addition, 1 000 people have been displaced and an estimated 150,000 people are in need of humanitarian assistance. According to the initial assessments, houses across the archipelago have been extensively damaged, while several villages have been flooded due to sea surges and broken dykes. Power outages and road disconnections have been reported mainly in Grande Comore and the island of Anjoua.

1 Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, OCHA Flash Update No. 2 (25 April 2019) JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Mozambique In northern Mozambique, the National Institute for Disaster Management - INGC provided shelters and evacuations are ongoing2. Media report that at least 30 000 have been evacuated3. One person has been reported dead4 and power lines were reported down in some communities of northern Mozambique, and Pemba city had significant power outages5. Media report also damages to health and school facilities in the city of Pemba.6 Due to the severe forecast related to all the three TC effects (winds, rainfall and storm surge), impact information is still incoming and the figures could increase.

Tanzania Southern Tanzania is also on alert and evacuations have taken place, UN OCHA reports.

Table 2: Exposed critical infrastructures are listed below (extracted from GDACS). ​

2 https://www.facebook.com/INGC.Mocambique/ 3https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/cyclone-kenneth-begins-landfall-northern-mozambique-19042518213 8888.html 4https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-at-least-one-dead-in-mozambique-as-un-warns-cyclone-kennet h-could/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-at-least-one-dead-in-mozambique-as-un-warns-cyclone- kenneth-could/ 5 https://www.whig.com/article/20190426/AP/304269941 6http://www.jornalnoticias.co.mz/index.php/sociedade/82-sociedade-nacional/89225-kenneth-corta-energia-elect rica-na-regiao-norte JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 4: Landfall 30 km South of Pemba City on 25 April at 13.40 UTC7. ​

7 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48050859 JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

2. Potential Development

2.1 Meteorological forecast According to the latest ECMWF deterministic weather forecasts (2019-04-26 00UTC) heavy precipitation (exceeding 200mm) is forecasted for Mozambique (Figure 5). High probability of exceeding the 300mm threshold in the next 10 days is forecasted for the coastal regions of Mozambique and border regions between Mozambique and Tanzania (Figure 6).

Figure 5: Precipitation forecast for the next 10 days according to the latest deterministic ECMWF ​ forecast from 26-04-2019 00UTC. ​ JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 6: Forecasted probability of precipitation exceeding the threshold of 300mm for the next 10 ​ days according to the latest probabilistic ECMWF forecast from 26-04-2019 00UTC.

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

2.2 Meteograms for relevant locations in Mozambique Meteograms contain information coming from both the deterministic singe model high-resolution (HRES) forecast and the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) comprising 50 members plus one (the Control forecast). The horizontal resolution of the HIRES is ~8 km whereas the resolution of ensemble members (and control) is ~16 km. HRES is denoted by blue, whereas Control forecast (of the ensemble) is denoted by red color.

The values of the ensemble are contained in a box plot type of diagram that graphically depicts groups of numerical data through their quartiles while maximum and minimum values are highlighted by whiskers.

The first panel of the meteogram contains the total (low - medium & high) cloudiness in octas. The second panel refers to the total (convective and large-scale precipitation) utilising values (mm) estimated over 6-hour intervals. The third panel refers to the instantaneous (averaged over 10 minutes) wind speed values in m/s. The fourth panel refers to the temperature in deg Celsius at 2- meter height.

Details for Chipembe Dam closest EPS grid land point utilised for Meteogram in Figure 7. ​ ​

Location requested: 13.22°S 38.6°E - Nearest ENS grid point: 13.28°S 38.62°E.

Height of requested location (based on the GTOPO30 dataset): 441 m, height of ENS orography at nearest grid point: 543.2 m, height of high resolution orography interpolated to ENS resolution at nearest grid point: 548.7 m. Temperature parameter is adjusted to the requested location by 0.7 °C in high resolution forecast curve and 0.7 °C in ENS forecast curves. The nearest ensemble grid point is a land point, located at 7 km south of the selected location. Figure 7 shows the Ensemble Meteogram for the greater area of Chipembe Dam (Mozambique).

Details for Montepuez closest EPS grid land point utilised for Meteogram in Figure 8. ​ ​

Location requested: 13.13°S 39°E - Nearest ENS grid point: 13.14°S 39.04°E.

Height of requested location (based on the GTOPO30 dataset): 555 m, height of ENS orography at nearest grid point: 500.6 m, height of high resolution orography interpolated to ENS resolution at nearest grid point: 496.1 m. Temperature parameter is adjusted to the requested location by -0.4 °C in high resolution forecast curve and -0.4 °C in ENS forecast curves. The nearest ensemble grid point is a land point, located at 4 km south-east of the selected location. Figure 8 shows the Ensemble Meteogram for Montepuez (Mozambique).

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 7: ECMWF Ensemble Meteogram for the greater area of Chipembe Dam based on the run of ​ 26 April 00 UTC. JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 8: ECMWF Ensemble Meteogram for the greater area of Montepuez based on the run of 26 ​ April 00 UTC.

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

The last Meteogram (Figure 9) refers to the location of Namanhumbir that is close to the area of maximum amounts of rainfall as forecast by the Median of ECMWF EPS (GloFAS) with location requested as 13.04°S 39.27°E and its nearest grid land point of the ensemble as 13°S 39.29°E.

Figure 9: ECMWF Ensemble Meteogram for the greater area of Namanhumbir based on the run of ​ 26 April 00 UTC. JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

2.3 Hydrological Forecast The latest GloFAS forecast shows the high probability of exceeding the 20-year return level threshold (Figure 10) in the coastal basins of Northern Mozambique. River discharge in the Messalo River ​ basin (Location 1 in Figure 10) is predicted to start rising in the next days, exceeding 20-year return level from 27 April onwards (Figure 11). The peak discharge is predicted on 29 April with the median discharge reaching 50-years return level. Similar behavior is predicted also for the other basins in the area ( Lurio river - Location 2 in Figure 10).

Figure 10: 2019-04-26 GloFAS hydrological forecast. Purple shading denotes the probability of ​ exceeding GloFAS 20-year return levels JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 11: GloFAS 2019-04-26 hydrological forecast for Messalo River ​ ​ ​

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 12: GloFAS 2019-04-26 hydrological forecast for Lurio River ​ ​ JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

2.4 Impact Forecast In this section we focus on the possible impact from the riverine flooding in the large river basins as forecasted by GloFAS. The possible impacts caused by other phenomena are not included in the analysis. The map below shows the inundated inundated areas for flood events with a return period of 100 years (blue shading), based on GloFAS climatology with the probability of GloFAS ensemble streamflow predictions to exceed a 20-year return period (purple shading). Potentially the most affected are the populated areas along the Rio Messalo and Rio Lurio Rivers in the coastal provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula according to the GloFAS prediction. The detailed overlay of the inundated area (marked red in the Figure 13) and the population density based on GHSL dataset (https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_pop.php) for the Rio Lurio River basin is shown in the Figure 14. ​ ​

Figure 13: Inundated areas for flood events with a return period of 100 years (blue shading), based ​ on GloFAS climatology and the probability of GloFAS ensemble streamflow predictions (26-04-2019 00UTC) to exceed a 20-year return period (purple shading) JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 14: Inundated areas for flood events with a return period of 100 years (blue shading), based ​ on GloFAS climatology and the population density (red shading) based on the GHSL population density data (https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_pop.php) ​ ​

2.5 Chipembe Dam Chipembe Dam has been identified as significantly exposed. According to the information coming from the field teams, the capacity of the dam has been already reached.

Chipembe dam is located on the Montepuez River, in the Balama district, South of Cabo Delgado Province. It was built in 1985 and its initial purpose was to feed an irrigation system that never worked. After years of abandonment, it has been rehabilitated in 2018, serving also the recent Balama mine site8, 9.

It has a maximum length of about 1400 m crown development and a height of 16 m, the Chipembe 3 10 dam is homogeneous in profile and has a reservoir with a storage volume of about 25 Mm .​ The ​ maximum normal water surface elevation in the reservoir is 503.6 m. Based on the reservoir storage 3 curve, this water level corresponds to a reservoir gross storage of ~24.8 hm ​ and a reservoir surface ​

8 http://www.cabodelgado.gov.mz/por/Informacao/Noticias-da-Provincia/Reactivado-o-regadio-de-Chipembe 9 http://www.syrahresources.com.au/development-activities 10 https://www.gotopembard.com/pao-barragem-de-chipembe JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

2 area of 7.1 km .​ According to the dam rehabilitation study, the maximum safe inflow to the reservoir is ​ 2450 m3/s and the maximum safe outflow is 1051 m3/s. 11

The problem of the earth-filled dam like this is that when they become overfilled, if not properly discharged the overfill water can erode the fill section of the dam and in brief time they can suddenly break, as it happened last year to the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy Power Project dam as a consequence of ​ ​ the Son-Tinh Tropical cyclone. ​ ​

Figure 15: The Chipembe Dam 12 ​ ​

11 Alvarez M. et al (2017) - Two-Dimensional Dam-Break Flood Analysis in Data-Scarce Regions: The Case Study of Chipembe Dam, Mozambique. Water 2017, 9, 432; doi:10.3390/w9060432 12 http://www.syrahresources.com.au/development-activities JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

Figure 16: SRTM30 Digital elevation model of the dam and the downstream areas, in preparation of ​ a dam break calculation

JRC is monitoring the situation and if necessary dam break calculations and inundation can be performed. The digital elevation model that is adopted is obtained from SRTM-30, Figure 15.

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

3. European Copernicus Rapid Mapping Activation

ERCC has activated the service in the afternoon of 26 April. This was a follow-up of a pre-tasking request ERCC had submitted on 24 April over the entire province Cabo Delgado and the North of Nampula province. The related radar image was acquired and delivered in the early hours of 26 April and will now be analysed for the areas shown in the figure below (first results are expected today evening). Other radar acquisitions are planned for the afternoon of 26 April and in the coming two days. Tasking of optical data for performing damage assessments over populated areas will be defined later. Access to the imagery acquired through the Charter call ID 697 was requested and these data might provide a valuable source of additional imagery, in particular for the damage assessment.

Figure 17. Areas of interest which will be analysed using the first radar image (acquired in the ​ morning of 26 April). JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

4 Other activities in support to ERCC

4.1 JRC Support to ERCC

GDACS System for KENNETH GDACS has issued a RED alert for this event. In detail, GDACS has issued the ORANGE Alert for ​ ​ this event in Comoros and Mozambique on 23 April at 06:00 UTC, reclassified as RED alert at 21:00 ​ ​ ​ UTC, depending on the variation of the forecasted track (different number of exposed people) and ​ intensity. According to the latest forecast bulletin (25 Apr, 18:00 UTC), the GDACS alert level is ORANGE (for storm surge) and GREEN (for winds) for this event in Mozambique.

Figure 18. GDACS summary impact for the KENNETH Tropical Cyclone ​

4.2 Virtual OSOCC Virtual OSOCC was activated for TC KENNETH on 25 April, at 23 UTC for Mozambique and at 08 UTC for Comoros.

4.3 International Charter In the night from 25 to 26 April CENAD on behalf of INGC requested support from the Charter (call ID697). The call was confirmed in the afternoon of 26 April. At this the activities of the Charter are not known, especially if any mapping is foreseen. JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

JRC Emergency Reporting - Activation #35 - 26 Apr 2019

5 Expected Updates

An update of the report will be performed if necessary and when the simulation of the potential consequences of a dam water release from the Chipembe Dam will be completed. ​

6. References and contact points within JRC

Contact points within JRC: Disaster Risk Management Unit

Technical Responsible: - Alessandro Annunziato, [email protected] ​

Analysis Team: - Alessandro Annunziato, [email protected] ​ - Milan Kalas [email protected] ​ - Thomas Petroliagkis, [email protected] ​ - Chiara Proietti, [email protected] ​

Unit Head and Deputy Unit Head: - Alessandra Zampieri, [email protected] ​ - Tom De Groeve, [email protected] ​

References http://floodlist.com/africa/malawi-mozambique-floods-march-2019 http://floodlist.com/africa/south-africa-floods-kwazulu-natal-march-2019 https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Floods%20Tete%20and%20Zambeiza_%20Flas h%20update%203.pdf https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/mozambique-emergency-teams-alert-dangerous-and-powerful -tropical-cyclone-idai

List of abbreviations and definitions

GloFAS - Global Flood Awareness System GDACS - Global Disasters Analysis and Coordination System