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Philippines Philippines Climate Transparency Report 2020

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Philippines Philippines Climate Transparency Report 2020 CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT | 2020 PHILIPPINES PHILIPPINES CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT 2020 This country profile is part of theClimate Transparency Report 2020. www.climate-transparency.org PER CAPITA GREENHOUSE NOT ON TRACK FOR A 1.5°C WORLD GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS The Philippines would need to reduce its emissions to below 132 MtCO e by 2030 and to below -198 MtCO e by 2050, to be within The Philippines per capita greenhouse 2 2 1.5°C a 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ pathway. The NDC target range – from 90 to 102 gas (GHG) emissions (incl. land use) MtCO e in 2030 – is 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ compatible; however, owing to were 1.18 tCO e/capita1. 2 2 its conditional 1&2 The Philippines 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ pathway (MtCO2e/year) nature, the 300 max 132 CAT rates 1.18 MtCO e it as as 2°C tCO e/capita 2 2 100 228.64 compatible. 0 NDC target range Data for MtCO2e -100 2017. max -198 All figures Sources: -300 MtCO2e exclude land Enerdata, 5-year trend (2012-2017) use emissions 2020; UN -500 and are Department -700 based on of Economic +49.9% 2017 2030 2050 and Social pre-COVID-19 Affairs Population Division, 2020 Source: Climate Action Tracker, 2019 projections. KEY OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENHANCING CLIMATE AMBITION Submit an Implement Pursue international collaboration to 1.5°C updated announced coal upgrade to a flexible power grid that NDC to be moratorium to can absorb more variable renewable 1.5°C Paris include the whole energy and rapidly develop renewable compatible MORATORIUM pipeline of currently energy forecasting, expand metro in 2020, and planned coal-fired RAPIDLY DEVELOP rail systems, deploy bus rapid transit ON NEW COAL ENERGY EFFICIENT BE PARIS include an power generation, systems, treble electric public road COMPATIBLE TRANSPORT IN 2020 unconditional and develop a plan to phase out coal transport, establish interconnected, target. by 2040, with a just transition plan. urban bicycle lanes. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The country’s largest utility In July 2020, the DOE In April 2020, the Philippine central included a ‘carve-out clause’ emphasised its commitment bank approved the Sustainable in its power purchase to transition to reverse Finance Framework to safeguard agreements. Under certain conditions energy auctions by 2021. The move is the financial system from evolving transition the utility can now opt out of, or curtail, expected to dramatically accelerate risks, and to increase the value of low-carbon procurement of artificially inflated coal renewable energy deployment. opportunities. The framework complements supply contracts in favour of buying mandatory environmental, social and cheaper renewable power. governance reporting guidelines for publicly listed companies. References: Ahmed and Dalunsung, 2020; Domingo, 2020; Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas, 2020; Veloso and Vallada, 2019; Ahmed, 2020; Climate Action Tracker, 2019b; Business Mirror, 2020; Department of Energy, 2020b CORONAVIRUS RECOVERY President Duterte stated the urgency to fight COVID-19 is also required to tackle climate change. Government is planning a PHP 4.3tn (USD 119bn) budget for 2021. The PHP 1.3tn economic stimulus plan has passed the Lower House but not the Senate. House Bill No. 6864 establishes pandemic safety measures noting the importance of sustainable pathways, protecting biodiversity and environmental laws. The Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) sets out to reduce income tax by 5% for industries that reduce reliance on carbon based energy. The government intends to draw investments for renewable infrastructure projects in addition to research and development. References: PhilStar, 2020; The Straits Times, 2020; CNN, 2020; Cepeda, 2020; Gotinga, 2020; Cordero, 2020; Department of Energy, 2020a; DOF, 2020; de Vera, 2020 1 CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT | 2020 PHILIPPINES CONTENTS LEGEND We unpack the Philippines’ progress and highlight key Trends show developments over the past five opportunities to enhance climate action across: years for which data are available. The thumbs indicate assessment from a climate protection perspective. ADAPTATION MITIGATION FINANCE Decarbonisation Ratings4 assess a country’s performance Page 3 Page 5 Page 16 compared to other G20 countries. A high score reflects a relatively good effort from a climate protection perspective but is not necessarily 1.5°C compatible. Reducing emissions from Very low Low Medium High Very high Energy used Non-energy uses in the power sector ..................8 in land use ...........14 Policy Ratings5 evaluate a selection of policies that are essential pre-conditions for the longer-term transformation in the transport sector .......... 10 in agriculture ......14 required to meet the 1.5°C limit. in the building sector ............ 12 in the industrial sector .......... 13 Low Medium High Frontrunner SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT Human Development Index Population and urbanisation projections (in millions) The Human 1,0 144.5 Very high The Philippines’ 123.7 Development 0,8 High 108.1 Index reflects life population is Medium 0,6 expectancy, level of expected to increase 0,4 HIGH by about 34% by 65% education, and per Low 0,2 52% 2050 and become 47% urban capita income. The urban urban 0,0 Philippines ranks high. 0.712 more urbanised. 2019 2030 2050 Data for 2018. Source: UNDP, 2019 Sources: The World Bank, 2019; United Nations, 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita Death rate attributable to air pollution Ambient air pollution Nearly 47,000 people die in the attributable death rate Philippines every year as a result per 1,000 population per of outdoor air pollution, due to year, age standardised stroke, heart disease, lung cancer 9,514 and chronic 46,816 PPP constant 2015 international $ respiratory deaths per 0.72 diseases. year Data for 2019. Source: The World Bank, 2020 Data for 2016. Source: WHO, 2018 JUST TRANSITION While policies still favour baseload coal capacity, the dispatched. The Philippines requires an inclusive government is improving the competitive landscape strategy for a just transition away from imported through fixed price procurement and moving coal and gas and towards renewable energy to away from transferring volatility to consumers. The assist economic recovery from the impacts of modernised wholesale spot market removes the COVID-19, e.g. through employment creation. There is UPGRADE SKILLS automatic nomination of a minimum stable load, which an opportunity to re-train power sector workers and FOR FUTURE was a previous advantage for coal-fired power. This upgrade skills for future employment opportunities. EMPLOYMENT means coal will have to be cost-competitive to be A just transition is likewise needed in transport. References: Ahmed and Dalunsung, 2020; CAT, 2019a 2 CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT | 2020 PHILIPPINES ADAPTATION 1. ADAPTATION ADDRESSING AND REDUCING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE PARIS Increase the ability to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change and foster climate resilience AGREEMENT and low-GHG development. Adaptation actions Rising sea levels, Enabling are urgently needed ocean acidification adaptation action particularly in highly and gradual changes means government vulnerable sectors such in hydrology require redefining climate VULNERABLE TO RISING REDEFINING as food, agriculture, urgent integration into away from narrow CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVELS CLIMATE water, marine resources, long-term development disaster framing. biodiversity, human strategies. health. ADAPTATION NEEDS Climate Risk Index Impacts of extreme weather events in terms of fatalities and economic losses that occured. All numbers are averages (1999-2018). Annual weather-related fatalities Annual average losses (USD mn PPP) 20 20 20 18 Hig18h Hi18gh 16 16 16 14 14 14 12 12 RANKING 12 RANKING 10 455 Deat10h 0.48 Losse10 s 8 0.43 rat8e 8 nd 6 6 th DEATHS 6 PER UNIT 4 PER 100,000 4 2 4 14 2 2 4,547 GDP (%) 2 OUT OF 181 0 0 OUT OF 181 INHABITANTS Low0 Low Source: Germanwatch, 2019 Source: Germanwatch, 2019 Exposure to future impacts at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C No future impact ranking data available CORONAVIRUS RECOVERY When the Philippines was hit by Typhoon VongFong in May 2020, typhoon preparation and evacuation efforts were complicated by the social-distancing requirements of the response to COVID-19. In August 2020 a COVID-19 humanitarian response plan was launched to assist 5.4 million of the poorest, most marginalized Filipinos. Any pandemic stimulus needs to upgrade essential areas of the economy like medical and food supply chains, urban services and energy infrastructure in a manner that also achieves climate goals and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals. References: Constantino, 2020; UN News, 2020; UN Philippines, 2020 3 CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT | 2020 PHILIPPINES ADAPTATION Adaptation readiness The figure shows 2000-2015 observed data from the ND-GAIN Index overlaid with projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2015-2060. The Philippines has both a great need for investment Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-Gain) Readiness Index and innovations to improve readiness and a great urgency for action. Measures in line with SSP1 would produce improvements. Other measures, as 1,0 represented by SSP2 and SSP3, would continue to undermine its readiness to adapt in the long term. 0,8 The readiness component of the Index created by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND- GAIN) encompasses social economic and governance 0,6 indicators to assess a country’s readiness to deploy private and public investments in aid of adaptation.
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