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Dprk: 1990-2009 Energy Balances, Engagement Options, and Future Paths for Energy and Economic Redevelopment

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Dprk: 1990-2009 Energy Balances, Engagement Options, and Future Paths for Energy and Economic Redevelopment The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability FOUNDATIONS OF ENERGY SECURITY FOR THE DPRK: 1990-2009 ENERGY BALANCES, ENGAGEMENT OPTIONS, AND FUTURE PATHS FOR ENERGY AND ECONOMIC REDEVELOPMENT AATTTTAACCHHMMEENNTTSS WORKPAPERS, BACKGROUND DATA, AND DETAILED RESULTS Prepared byDavid Von Hippel and Peter Hayes The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, in Collaboration with the Korea Energy Economics Institute DRAFT, September 13, 2012 Nautilus Institute D. Von Hippel e-mail United States: [email protected]; P. Hayes e-mail: 2421 Fourth Street Berkeley, CA 94710 [email protected] Copyright Nautilus Institute, 2003, 2007, and 2012 © Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 8/20/12 ATTACHMENTS 1 AND 2 WORKPAPERS, BACKGROUND DATA, AND DETAILED RESULTS: ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) AND RELATED ENERGY SECTOR AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS ANALYSES CONTENTS: ATTACHMENT 1 DETAILED, PETROLEUM PRODUCT, AND SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES ............................................................................................................. A1 - 1 WORKPAPERS—ENERGY SUPPLY SECTORS .......................................... A1 - 32 WORKPAPERS—ENERGY DEMAND SECTORS ........................................ A1 - 95 ADDITIONAL SUMMARY FIGURES AND TABLES ................................. A1 - 140 ESTIMATES OF COST AND SAVINGS OF SELECTED ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES ............................................................................... A1 - 172 ESTIMATES OF ACID GAS AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS..... A1 - 181 ATTACHMENT 2 ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL FUEL USE BY THE MILITARY SECTOR IN THE DPRK: UPDATE THROUGH THE YEAR 2009 ................................................................................................................................... A2 - 1 DRAFT—Please do not quote or cite without permission from authors Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 8/20/12 Detailed, Petroleum Product, and Summary Energy Balances NAUTILUS INSTITUTE ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) 2010/2011 UPDATE ESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1990 Prepared By David Von Hippel Date Last Modified: 6/9/2011 UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ) COAL & CRUDE REFINED HYDRO/ WOOD/ COKE OIL PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL HEAT ELECTRICITY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY 1,325,571 110,742 26,622 78,075 161,944 - - - 1,702,954 Domestic Production 1,301,288 - 78,075 149,944 1,529,306 Imports 68,392 110,742 26,622 12,000 217,755 Exports 44,108 - 44,108 Inputs to International Marine Bunkers - Stock Changes - ENERGY TRANSFORMATION (377,571) (110,742) 82,762 (78,075) (9,920) 2,976 9,251 120,464 (360,855) Electricity Generation (294,926) (21,947) (76,641) 7,884 165,600 (220,030) Petroleum Refining (110,742) 110,742 (593) (593) Coal Production/Preparation (63,092) (8,544) (71,636) Charcoal Production (9,920) 2,976 (6,944) Coke Production - District Heat Production (3,417) (73) (1,433) 2,916 (2,008) Other Transformation - Own Use (5,960) (12,408) (18,368) Losses (16,136) (1,549) (23,592) (41,277) FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION 948,000 - 109,384 - 152,024 2,976 9,251 120,464 1,342,099 ENERGY DEMAND 948,006 - 109,384 - 152,021 2,973 9,251 120,467 1,342,103 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 671,661 - 28,483 - 5,626 - - 70,242 776,013 Iron and Steel 324,615 17,388 342,003 Cement 68,139 7,571 4,356 80,065 Fertilizers 23,994 4,573 18,891 47,458 Other Chemicals 11,203 6,616 17,819 Pulp and Paper 4,026 4,026 932 8,985 Other Metals 23,720 4,126 27,846 Other Minerals - 12,600 396 12,996 Textiles 29,385 2,497 31,882 Building Materials 61,980 189 62,169 Non-specified Industry 124,600 3,740 1,600 14,850 144,790 TRANSPORT SECTOR - - 37,896 - 1,672 - - 11,470 51,039 Road 32,571 1,672 34,243 Rail - 1,949 10,870 12,819 Water - 1,253 1,253 Air 1,123 1,123 Non-Specified 1,000 600 1,600 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 189,274 - 6,600 - 86,140 2,973 6,134 10,718 301,840 Urban 129,155 6,256 1,814 6,134 7,420 150,780 Rural 60,119 344 86,140 1,159 3,298 151,060 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 9,750 - 5,005 - 44,950 - - 2,572 62,277 Field Operations 2,619 907 3,526 Processing/Other 9,750 2,386 44,950 1,664 58,750 FISHERIES SECTOR 1,132 - 3,137 - - - - 524 4,794 Large Ships - 2,681 2,681 Collectives/Processing/Other 1,132 456 524 2,112 MILITARY SECTOR 29,825 - 16,444 - - - - 14,008 60,277 Trucks and other Transport 6,585 6,585 Armaments 263 263 Air Force 2,648 2,648 Naval Forces 6,847 6,847 Military Manufacturing 887 48 935 Buildings and Other 28,938 100 13,960 42,998 PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS 32,646 98 1,632 2,644 10,932 47,952 NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS 5,950 473 6,423 NON-ENERGY USE 13,718 5,771 12,000 31,488 Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe) 23.43 1.28 21.29 46.00 A1- 1 Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 8/20/12 NAUTILUS INSTITUTE ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) 2010/2011 UPDATE ESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 1996 Prepared By David Von Hippel Date Last Modified: 12/13/2011 UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ) COAL & CRUDE REFINED HYDRO/ WOOD/ COKE OIL PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL HEAT ELECTRICITY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY 684,227 39,874 32,211 19,160 167,345 - - - 942,817 Domestic Production 684,608 - 19,160 155,348 859,116 Imports 11,614 39,874 39,100 12,000 102,588 Exports 11,994 443 4 - 12,441 Inputs to International Marine Bunkers - Stock Changes 6,446 6,446 ENERGY TRANSFORMATION (251,361) (39,874) 11,979 (19,160) (7,916) 2,375 5,128 50,757 (248,074) Electricity Generation (207,738) (25,467) (19,160) 4,543 82,238 (165,584) Petroleum Refining (39,874) 39,874 (213) (213) Coal Production/Preparation (32,773) (4,438) (37,211) Charcoal Production (7,916) 2,375 (5,541) Coke Production - District Heat Production (2,468) (163) 1,710 (921) Other Transformation - Own Use (2,266) (10,186) (12,452) Losses (8,382) (1,126) (16,644) (26,151) FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION 432,866 - 44,190 - 159,429 2,375 5,128 50,757 694,744 ENERGY DEMAND 432,867 - 44,190 - 159,428 2,374 5,128 50,757 694,743 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 250,538 - 8,685 - 1,909 - - 24,001 285,133 Iron and Steel 124,977 6,694 131,671 Cement 29,981 3,331 1,917 35,229 Fertilizers 6,515 1,129 5,130 12,774 Other Chemicals 3,697 - 2,183 5,880 Pulp and Paper 1,329 1,329 308 2,965 Other Metals 7,828 1,362 9,189 Other Minerals 832 3,326 131 4,289 Textiles 9,697 824 10,521 Building Materials 20,453 62 20,516 Non-specified Industry 45,230 899 581 5,391 52,100 TRANSPORT SECTOR - - 16,525 - 829 - - 4,804 22,157 Road 14,345 829 15,174 Rail - 779 4,804 5,583 Water - 501 501 Air 899 899 Non-Specified - - - RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 121,735 - 1,785 - 117,606 2,374 3,572 6,145 253,219 Urban 92,747 1,649 15,135 1,455 3,572 4,562 119,120 Rural 28,988 136 102,471 919 1,583 134,098 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 5,155 - 1,502 - 23,767 - - 1,697 32,121 Field Operations 786 816 1,602 Processing/Other 5,155 716 23,767 880 30,518 FISHERIES SECTOR 509 - 998 - - - - 236 1,743 Large Ships - 804 804 Collectives/Processing/Other 509 193 236 939 MILITARY SECTOR 25,363 - 13,123 - 5,498 - - 7,711 51,695 Trucks and other Transport 5,734 5,734 Armaments 211 211 Air Force 1,886 1,886 Naval Forces 5,198 5,198 Military Manufacturing 621 - 33 654 Buildings and Other 24,742 95 5,498 7,678 38,013 PUBLIC/COMMERCIAL SECTORS 26,180 131 2,618 1,555 6,163 36,646 NON-SPECIFIED/OTHER SECTORS - - - NON-ENERGY USE 3,386 1,442 7,200 12,028 Electricity Gen. (Gross TWhe)* 16.61 0.91 5.32 22.84 *Note: Gross terawatt-hours for coal-fired plants includes output for plants co-fired with coal and heavy fuel oil. A1- 2 Nautilus Institute, Foundations of Energy Security for the DPRK, Attachments, 8/20/12 NAUTILUS INSTITUTE ESTIMATED/PROJECTED ENERGY SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) 2010/2011 UPDATE ESTIMATED ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE YEAR 2000 Prepared By David Von Hippel Date Last Modified: 11/28/2011 UNITS: TERAJOULES (TJ) COAL & CRUDE REFINED HYDRO/ WOOD/ COKE OIL PROD. NUCLEAR BIOMASS CHARCOAL HEAT ELECTRICITY TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY 337,701 17,857 40,011 37,705 165,746 - - (82) 598,939 Domestic Production 336,565 1,278 37,705 153,735 529,283 Imports 10,454 16,579 41,777 12,012 - 80,822 Exports 9,318 3,010 1 82 12,411 Inputs to International Marine Bunkers - Stock Changes (1,245) (1,245) ENERGY TRANSFORMATION (52,526) (17,857) (156) (37,705) (6,061) 1,818 2,645 30,848 (78,993) Electricity Generation (31,316) (16,555) (37,705) 2,451 47,746 (35,379) Petroleum Refining (17,857) 17,857 (105) (105) Coal Production/Preparation (16,112) (2,182) (18,294) Charcoal Production (6,061) 1,818 (4,243) Coke Production - District Heat Production (978) (402) 855 (524) Other Transformation - Own Use (1,056) (1,903) (2,959) Losses (4,121) (661) (12,708) (17,490) FUELS FOR FINAL CONSUMPTION 285,175 - 39,855 - 159,685 1,818 2,645 30,767 519,946 ENERGY DEMAND 285,169 - 39,852 - 159,683 1,818 2,645 30,768 519,936 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 147,882 - 11,792 - 1,130 - 12,618 173,422 Iron and Steel 67,382 3,609 70,991 Cement 19,067 7,052 1,503 27,623 Fertilizers 2,070 343 1,629 4,042 Other Chemicals 2,325 - 1,373 3,699 Pulp and Paper 836 836 194 1,865 Other Metals 4,924 857 5,780 Other Minerals 869 3,478 137 4,484 Textiles 6,100 518 6,618 Building Materials 21,383 65 21,448 Non-specified Industry 22,926 920 294 2,732 26,873 TRANSPORT SECTOR - - 8,665 - 504 - - 3,237 12,405 Road 6,795 504 7,299 Rail - 585 3,237 3,821 Water - 476 476 Air 809 809 Non-Specified - - - RESIDENTIAL
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