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Poland Political Briefing: Outcomes of the Parliamentary Elections in Poland Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska

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Poland Political Briefing: Outcomes of the Parliamentary Elections in Poland Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 23, No. 1 (PL) November 2019 Poland political briefing: Outcomes of the parliamentary elections in Poland Joanna Ciesielska-Klikowska 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Outcomes of the parliamentary elections in Poland On October 13, 2019, elections to the Sejm and Senate were held, which are the chambers of the Polish parliament. Polish citizens entitled to vote elected 460 deputies and 100 senators. Elections to the Sejm ended with the victory of Law and Justice Party (PiS) and the parties, which create a coalition with this grouping since 2015 – namely Solidarna Polska and Jarosław Gowin’s Alliance. It is these parties that will excel among themselves candidates for ministers in the next government. Castling is planned, but Mateusz Morawiecki will remain as Prime Minister. The election campaign On August 6, 2019, Polish President Andrzej Duda decided that parliamentary elections would take place on October 13. It was the earliest possible date. At the same time, the president’s decision meant that there was not much time left to launch the campaign - only two months, of which one (August) in Polish politics is treated as the time of parliamentary holidays, when politicians go home and both chambers do not meet. Although the campaign was short, it was the most intense and aggressive campaign we have seen in Poland since 1989. This was due to several reasons - firstly, the current style of governance by conservative parties is extremely controversial in Poland, but also internationally. PiS and its policy polarize society to a great extent, often dividing it into two groups - devotees of the party and enthusiasts of the changes introduced by it, and people who completely reject PiS’s proposals and are constantly in opposition to the often chaotic policy pursued by the grouping. Thus, the expectation was that Polish voters would change this style of governance to a more predictable one that would not follow a collision course with the European Union, EU institutions (e.g. CJEU) or other international ones. Secondly, it was realized that these are the elections that would influence the shape of Polish politics not for the next four years, but - due to far-reaching changes in administration, the judiciary, special services implemented by the ruling camp etc. - will have an impact on the long-term perspective of conducting Polish foreign and internal policy. Thirdly, opposition parties were hungry for victories as well, because after many years of rule they are now only opponents and have lost (though often by a small amount of voices) other elections including to the local governments and to the European Parliament. Thus, triumph over PiS would have a “historical” dimension, 1 as politicians of the opposition parties called it. It was known, however, that PiS has excellent ratings and the economic situation in Poland fills the voters with great optimism. Certainly, the world gives the breeze to the right-wing camp in Poland. Undoubtedly, Poland is currently in the best moment of its history, both in the political and economic sense, and the current government uses this period of prosperity, giving among others high social support (500+ programme for families with children, 13th retirement pension, tax exemptions for young people etc.). Therefore, also the topics related to social assistance most often appeared in the election campaign and each party bid for the amount of aid, its maintenance and enlargement of the number of beneficiaries. Since this tactic worked in the previous election and brought PiS victory in 2015, today the other parties used the same concept. The campaign itself, though very sharp, which contained numerous scandals, prosecutor’s accusations and jagged plays - all in all focused on fairly mundane matters. It was difficult to pin out really promising concepts that will affect the functioning of Poland and the world in subsequent decades. The focus was mainly on internal policy (judicial issues, social transfers), but there were no clear visions related to environmental protection, digitization, urbanization, or Poland’s position in the international arena. In fact, the campaign did not introduce any new threads in the discussion. PiS’s vision was well known before, and the opposition did not have a clear message that would be attractive to voters - even the young ones. The results In the October election Poles elected 460 deputies for Sejm and 100 senators for Senate. In total, 5112 candidates applied for the deputy’s seat - on average 11 candidates competed for one seat. In the elections to the Senate, 278 candidates were registered in 100 single-member constituencies. Over 30.25 million voters were entitled to vote, yet 18.67 million voters did actively participate in the elections. Voter turnout reached the level of 61.74% and in this way it was the highest turnout achieved since the 1989 election. The coalition of the United Right (Law and Justice Party together with Solidarna Polska as well as Gowin’s Alliance) won the election, gaining over 8 million votes, which gave it 43.59% of all valid votes. The second place was taken by the Civic Coalition (Civic Platform, Modern and Green Party) with the support of 5.6 million people and a result of 27.4%. The third place was taken by the Left (Coalition of the Democratic Left Alliance with the Together Party and Robert Biedroń’s Spring) - it maintained 2.3 million votes and 12.56%. Off the 2 podium, but it will be still represented in Sejm was the coalition of Polish People’s Party with Kukiz, which won 5 million votes (8.55%). The ultra-conservative Confederation settled last place with premium seats in parliament, winning over 1.2 million votes and reaching 6.81%. As a result, there are 5 coalitions in the Sejm - but in practice there are representatives of 15 different political parties that went to elections divided into these 5 blocks. The above results translate into the number of seats won in the Sejm, and look as following: • United Right - 235 seats; • Civic Coalition - 134 seats; • Left - 49 seats; • Polish People’s Party with Kukiz - 30 seats; • Confederation - 11 seats; • German minority - 1 seat (the national minority committee which is released from the 5% electoral threshold; this one seat is guaranteed for a representative of the German minority from Opole Silesia). Since the ordinary majority in Sejm amounts to 231 seats, and the constitutional majority – 307 seats, it means that right-wing parties will be able to introduce many of their own laws, but they will not have a majority to amend the constitution and to dismiss the veto of the president (if it occurs against a bill). An interesting situation took place in the upper house of the parliament – in the Senate. Though PiS obtained the majority of seats in Sejm, but did not win the Senate - although it must be honestly acknowledged that the adventage of opposition is low. In these elections, the candidates of the Civic Coalition won 43 seats, Polish People’s Party - 3, the Left - 2. 3 seats went to candidates sympathizing with the opposition, but starting from their own committees. This means that the opposition has a small majority in the Senate. 48 seats were won by candidates from the PiS lists. One mandate went to Lidia Staroń, who had no competitor from PiS in her single-member constituency. This division means that PiS will no longer be as easy as in the current term to push through its own bills, often adopted by the Senate (in which they had the majority) with virtually no discussion. It will also give it a better balance and the opportunity to develop smarter statutory solutions, although it can also lead to constant struggle between political parties. 3 Comment Parlimentary elections ended with the victory of Law and Justice. However, it is a bitter triumph. PiS has only four seats above the required majority (231), which, still, gives little protection if one of the deputies leaves their club and moves to another party (it is possible in the Polish system - the mandate follows a specific deputy and not the party from which he/she has started). PiS leader – Jarosław Kaczyński – definitely counted on more. The result of 235 seats means that the majority in Sejm depends in reality on both Zbigniew Ziobro and Jarosław Gowin as leaders of coalition parties in the United Right. Both factions have increased their ownership in comparison to the year 2015. The Jarosław Gowin’s fraction (Gowin’s Alliance) will have 18 deputies in Sejm - more by 6 people; the Zbigniew Ziobro’s faction (Solidarna Polska) will have 17 deputies - more by 9 people. Moreover, PiS will be in a definitely harder situation than in 2015, because the new scheme of the party system is dangerous from its perspective - Law and Justice has now at least two fronts open because it is surrounded by opposition from both the left and right spectrum. It will also be difficult in this term to maintain the previous narrative about two great forces: PiS and anti-PiS. This anti-PiS block showed itself not as a monolith, but as a very diversified obstruct, especially that the groups went to the elections separately (although it was even previously assumed that all opposition parties would go as one, as a joint coalition for elections against PiS), maintaining their specificity and competing with each other. Many questions arise regarding opposition parties. Important challenges are faced by the Civic Coalition and its leaders – especially Grzegorz Schetyna as the head of the Civic Platform.
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