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Final Report of the Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research

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Final Report of the Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research Prepublication Copy – Subject to Further Editorial Correction FINAL REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR U.S. BURNING PLASMA RESEARCH ADVANCE COPY NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE BEFORE Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 2:00 p.m. ___________________________________________________________________________________ PLEASE CITE AS A REPORT OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research Board of Physics and Astronomy Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences A Consensus Study Report of PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the Contract No. DE-SC0013488 from the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24971 Copies of this publication are available free of charge from Board on Physics and Astronomy National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested Citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018. Final Report of the Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/10.17226/24971. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION COMMITTEE ON A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR U.S. BURNING PLASMA RESEARCH MICHAEL MAUEL, Columbia University, Co-Chair MELVYN SHOCHET, NAS,1 University of Chicago, Co-Chair CHRISTINA A. BACK, General Atomics RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester IAN CHAPMAN, UK Atomic Energy Authority CARY FOREST, University of Wisconsin, Madison T. KENNETH FOWLER, NAS, University of California, Berkeley JEFFREY FREIDBERG, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RONALD GILGENBACH, University of Michigan WILLIAM HEIDBRINK, University of California, Irvine MARK HERRMANN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory FRANK JENKO, University of Texas at Austin & Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics STANLEY KAYE, Princeton University MITSURU KIKUCHI, National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology SUSANA REYES, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory C. PAUL ROBINSON, NAE,2 Advanced Reactor Concepts, LLC PHILIP SNYDER, General Atomics AMY WENDT, University of Wisconsin, Madison BRIAN WIRTH, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Staff JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director GREG EYRING, Senior Program Officer, Study Director (from May to August 2018) CHRISTOPHER J. JONES, Program Officer, Study Director (from August 2018) NEERAJ P. GORKHALY, Associate Program Officer LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator HENRY KO, Research Associate BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer, Study Director (until May 2018) ANDREA PETERSON, Program Officer (until August 2017) 1 Member, National Academy of Sciences. 2 Member, National Academy of Engineering. PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY BARBARA V. JACAK, NAS, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Chair ABRAHAM LOEB, NAS, Harvard University, Vice Chair FRANCIS J. DISALVO, NAS, Cornell University TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University DANIEL FISHER, NAS, Stanford University WENDY FREEDMAN, NAS, University of Chicago GERALD GABRIELSE, Harvard University JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WENDELL T. HILL III, University of Maryland ALAN J. HURD, Los Alamos National Laboratory BARBARA JONES, IBM Almaden Research Center HERBERT LEVINE, Rice University LYMAN A. PAGE, JR., NAS, Princeton University STEVEN M. RITZ, University of California Santa Cruz Staff JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director CHRISTOPHER J. JONES, Program Officer, NEERAJ P. GORKHALY, Associate Program Officer LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator HENRY KO, Research Associate BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer ANDREA PETERSON, Program Officer (until August 2017) PREPUBLICATION COPY – SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi Preface Following decades of scientific research, including the successful production of 11 MW fusion power in the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor experiment in the United States and 16 MW in the Joint European Tokamak in the United Kingdom, an international agreement to build and operate a burning plasma experiment was formalized in Paris with the signing of the Agreement on the Establishment of the ITER International Fusion Energy Organization for the Joint Implementation of the ITER Project in November 2006. The signatories of the ITER agreement—the United States, China, the European Union, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation—are building the world’s largest international scientific research facility, called ITER. When construction is complete, scientists will share in the operation and results of ITER; create, study, and control burning plasma; and demonstrate fusion power production at least 10 times greater than the power needed to sustain the plasma. This will be a scientific and technical achievement and a critical step toward producing and delivering electricity from fusion energy. Since the international establishment of the ITER project, an international design review was completed in 2008; ITER construction began in 2010; and ITER became the first-of-its-kind, licensed, basic nuclear fusion facility in 2012. However, by 2013, ITER’s construction schedule had slipped, and ITER’s costs had increased significantly, leading to questions of whether the United States should continue its commitment to participate in ITER. These concerns resulted in a directive from Congress, appearing in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016, that the Secretary Energy report to Congress on U.S. participation in the ITER project, including budget projections, project schedule, project management, and foreign policy implementations. The Secretary’s report was delivered to Congress in May 2016 and recommended that the United States remain a partner in the ITER project through fiscal year (FY) 2018. The report acknowledged the significant construction progress made at ITER and the substantial improvements in ITER project management. The Secretary’s report also stated that ITER appears to be
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