HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Ignacio Information from CPHC Advisory 25, 5:00 PM HST Sunday August 30, 2015 On the forecast track, the center of Ignacio is expected to pass approximately 200 miles northeast of the Big Island and Maui on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Ignacio is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Rapid weakening is expected and Ignacio may be a tropical storm by Tuesday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 115 mph Position Relative to 355 miles E of Hilo, HI Speed: (category 3) Land: 545 miles E of , HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 961 mb Coordinates: 19.8 N, 149.6 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 160 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 325 degrees at 12 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The CPHC forecast map (below left) shows Ignacio passing northeast of the Hawaiian Islands while weakening from hurricane strength to tropical storm strength with maximum sustained winds below 74 mph. The map also shows the main Hawaiian Islands well south of Ignacio’s potential track area.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the CPHC’s forecast track which is shown in bold black. The map shows Ignacio’s tropical storm force and greater winds well north of the Hawaiian Islands. To illustrate the uncertainty in Ignacio’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown in pale gray.  Large swells generated by Ignacio will continue to build along east and southeast facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. Resultant surf will be large and potentially life-threatening, especially on the Big Island and Maui.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Ignacio (Central Center) (Based on CPHC at 18:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 8 AM HST Sunday, August 30, for the next five days

The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands have a 5-to-20 percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater. The map at lower right shows the Hawaiian Island have less than 5 percent chance of seeing maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 58 mph (50 knots).

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Formation National Hurricane Center The map at right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 30, 2015 potential over the next 48 hours in the Eastern Pacific.

Showers and associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, , have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it begins to move northwestward at about 10 mph. If development has not occurred by mid-week, less favorable upper- level winds could make tropical cyclone formation less likely. Chances of formation are 70 percent through the next two days and 90 percent through the next five days.

Hurricane Jimena, located well east of the Big Island of , is also shown and is expected to follow a track similar to Ignacio’s.

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