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The Distribution, Abundance and Conservation of Avian Biodiversity in Yellow Sea Habitats in the Republic of Korea NIAL MOORES BA (Hons.), Hull University (UK) and Master‘s Degree (Ecological Planning), Kyushu Institute of Design and Technology, Kyushu University (Japan) University of Newcastle, Australia A thesis submitted to the University of Newcastle for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy April 2012 Principal Supervisor: Professor Phil Hansbro Associate Supervisor: Dr. Danny Rogers 2 3 Disclaimer This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text. I give consent to this copy of my thesis, when deposited in the University Library, being made available for loan and photocopying subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I hereby also certify that, with the exceptions listed below, I conducted the fieldwork, conceived the chapters and the story of the thesis, analysed the data, helped define aims for statistical analysis that was conducted with colleagues, and wrote all of the text – with the guidance of my supervisors. Initial submission was made in August 2011, and final submission in March 2012, following incorporation of revisions in the text as proposed by supervisors and external examiners. Chapters with extensive collaboration include: 1. Chapter 3. Most of the measurements of tidal-flat grids were conducted by two Birds Korea colleagues. Tyler Hicks (a PhD candidate at Washington State University) also created Figure 3.3 of tidal-flat area. 2. Chapter 4. This chapter documents the Saemangeum Shorebird Monitoring Program. The Program itself involved >80 people. Dr. Danny Rogers was a co-manager of the Program, along with myself and three others. Dr. Rogers conducted much of the initial data analysis and survey design. The migration turnover model (with figures) used in Chapter 4 was constructed by Ken Rogers in collaboration with Dr. Danny Rogers. Figure 4.2 was created by Matthew Irvin of Massey University for use in Moores et al. (2008) 3. Chapter 5. Survey work was conducted in collaboration with shorebird experts from the Australasian Wader Studies Group, the Miranda Naturalist‘s Trust and the Global Flyways Network, as well as with Birds Koreans and local researchers. However, I was fully responsible for the analysis and write-up. 4. Chapter 6. Both the figure on Yellow-billed Loon distribution (using ArcGIS) and analysis of seabird communities was conducted with Tyler Hicks from GPS points and data gathered during my own survey work. 5. In Chapter 9, Stepwise Discriminant analysis of Decrease Susceptibility Index Scores was conducted by Ken Rogers. 4 Acknowledgements Sincere thanks to the University of Newcastle and especially to my Principal Supervisor Professor Phil Hansbro (University of Newcastle) and Associate Supervisor Dr. Danny Rogers (Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria, Australia). Prof. Phil Hansbro was the first person to suggest the PhD and has facilitated the process – both logistically and through guiding me over many months through several of the drafts. Dr. Danny Rogers was a co-manager of the Saemangeum Shorebird Monitoring Program (SSMP), and over the years and throughout the thesis-writing process, has consistently contributed much insight and support, despite other pressing work. Thank you both. Further valuable improvements were also made to the original submission in August 2011 due to the expert input of three external examiners, warmly and sincerely thanked here. Thanks too to all former and present colleagues in Birds Korea, most especially our National Coordinator Ms. Park Meena, Mr. Andreas Kim, Mr. Tyler Hicks, Ms. Tonni Knox-Hiitola and all other Birds Koreans who directly or indirectly contributed in a number of ways to this work. Several of the concepts that run through the thesis were developed during Birds Korea projects, including the Birds Korea 2010 Blueprint. For Chapters 2, 7 and 8, warmest thanks are given to Dr. Will Duckworth – as always an excellent source of information, support and insight. Mr. Park Jong-Gil of the Korea National Parks, Mr. Chai Seung-Hoon and Mr. Tim Edelsten are also sincerely and warmly thanked. Chapters 3 and 6 also benefited greatly from input from Birds Koreans – most especially Mr. Tyler Hicks and Mr. Geoff Styles. Thank you both. Chapters 4 and 5, on the SSMP and a national shorebird survey in 2008, were made possible only through the massive efforts of a large number of people from within Birds Korea and from the Australasian Wader Studies Group (AWSG): all are thanked sincerely. I hope that the chapters can be used to help tell the story that we so wanted and still need to tell. To that end, I would especially like to give thanks to Mr. Ken Rogers who deciphered numerous of my emails and worked on the shorebird migration models, strengthening our confidence in the results: thank you. Thanks too to all participants of the SSMP. A few persons are perhaps most representative of the hard work and dedication to conservation that came through those difficult surveys on a dying tidal-flat: once more our National Coordinator, Ms. Park Meena; the Styles Family; Dr. Danny Rogers and Mr. Ken Gosbell of the AWSG who co-managed and made the SSMP possible; Dr. Phil Battley and Mr. Adrian Riegen from New Zealand; the Global Flyways Network; and all others who work for shorebirds and intertidal wetlands on this and other Flyways. Of course, special thanks also to all who funded the SSMP – especially the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Professor Steven Feldstein and Mr. Magnus Robb are also thanked sincerely for their support and advice on weather systems and on bird vocalisations respectively (I only regret that was not enough opportunity to use the data and sonagrams on Black Woodpigeon and Styan‘s Grasshopper Warbler: next time). And finally, for her endless support and boundless tolerance: thanks to my life-time partner and soul-mate, and to all in our family. 5 Contents Page Acronyms & Nomenclature 13 Synopsis 14 Chapter 1 Background: Conservation, Geography, Avian Biodiversity and the Aims 15 of the Research 1.1 Background and Aims 15 1.1.1 Introduction 15 1.1.2 Conservation framework 16 1.1.3 Research and conservation challenges 17 1.2 The Yellow Sea 22 1.2.1 Physical geography 22 1.2.2 Human geography 24 1.2.3 Climate 24 1.2.4 The East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) 24 1.3 The Yellow Sea Blueprint Region (YSBR) 25 1.3.1 Physical geography 25 1.3.2 Main research sites 26 1.3.3 Main habitats 27 1.3.4 Human geography 28 1.3.5 Climate 29 1.4 Research on the Avian Biodiversity of the YSBR 30 1.4.1 Introduction 30 1.4.2 Intertidal wetlands 31 1.4.3 Open sea 31 1.4.4 Offshore islands 32 1.5 Information Gaps and the Five Principal Pressures 33 1.5.1 Habitat change 33 1.5.2 Overexploitation and hunting 35 1.5.3 Pollution 36 1.5.4 Invasive alien species 38 1.5.5 Climate change 38 1.6 The Research Chapters 40 Chapter 2 Bias in the Korean Ornithological Literature & the Identification of 42 Long-term Bird Population Trends between 1910 and the Present 2.1 Background 43 2.1.1 Introduction and aims 43 2.1.2 Sources used 44 2.1.3 Change in number of recorded species 45 2.1.4 Changes in abundance and policy response 46 2.2 Literature and Bias 48 2.2.1 Austin (1948) 48 2.2.2 Gore & Won (1971) 53 2.2.3 Won (2000) 56 2.2.4 Moores & Park (2009) 59 2.2.5 The MOE Census (1999-2010) 62 2.3 Interpreting the Four Assessments 64 2.3.1 Geographical scope 65 2.3.2 Taxonomy and identification 66 2.3.3 Access 70 2.4 Methods 71 2.4.1 Four Assessments 71 2.4.2 Tomek (1999, 2002) & DPRK literature 74 6 Page Chapter 2 2.5 Results 76 2.5.1 Status of regularly occurring and less regular species 76 2.5.2 Species of global conservation concern 77 2.5.3 DPRK population trends 79 2.5.4 Decreasing species in the ROK 80 2.5.5 Increasing species in the ROK 81 2.5.6 Species of the YSBR 82 2.5.7 Resolution and modification of the results 82 2.6 Discussion 91 2.6.1 Is there evidence of a decline in avian biodiversity in the ROK? 91 2.6.2 Underestimating declines 93 2.6.3 Use of the results 94 Chapter 3 Intertidal Wetland: Reclamation and Estimates of Remaining Area in the 98 ROK 3.1 Background and Aims 99 3.1.1 International importance of intertidal areas to avian biodiversity 99 3.1.2 Reclamation process 99 3.1.3 History of reclamation 101 3.1.4 Aims of the present study 103 3.2 Methods 103 3.3 Results 105 3.4 Discussion 107 3.4.1 Interpretation of the results 107 3.4.2 Impacts on shorebirds 108 3.4.3 Conservation obligations 110 Chapter 4 Measuring the Impacts of Large-scale Reclamation: The Saemangeum 111 Shorebird Monitoring Program (2006-2008) 4.1 Background and Aims 112 4.1.1 The Saemangeum reclamation 112 4.1.2 International importance of the Saemangeum Estuarine 113 System (SES) 4.1.3 Origin of the Saemangeum Shorebird Monitoring Program (SSMP) 113 4.1.4 Research aims and main species 116 4.2 Methods 118 4.2.1 The Study Region 118 4.2.2 SSMP survey design 121 4.2.3 Changes to the SES and SSMP count method due to seawall 123 closure 4.2.4 Analysis 124 4.3 Results 125 4.3.1 Numbers and international importance of the Study Region 125 4.3.2 Marked birds 127 4.3.3 Phenology and potential bias 130 4.3.4 Models and estimates 132 4.3.5 Changes in numbers of shorebirds