NO. 8 JANUARY 2021 Introduction

Revolution Again in : Forward to the Past? Andrea Schmitz

Kyrgyzstan’s presidential election and constitutional referendum on 10 January 2021 represent the provisional endpoint of a series of violent episodes that has gripped the country since October 2020. The victory of the populist and approval for his plan to reintroduce a of government prepares the ground for a dismantling of democratic principles and rule of law, so that politically Kyrgyz- stan is set to look more like its Central Asian neighbours. A new constitution is in preparation. The draft bears the portents of a neo-traditional roll-back that rebuffs a young generation demanding more and rule of law, and has the potential to deeply polarise the nation.

The early election emerged out of a politi- Commission quickly conceded, on 6 Octo- cal crisis triggered by violent that ber declaring the vote invalid to “avoid toppled the government – for the third tension” and announcing a rerun in time after 2005 and 2010. The protests were November. By that point, however, such sparked by vote-buying and other irregular- concessions could no longer appease the ities during the 4 October elections to the protesters: obviously, more was at stake single-chamber parliament, the Jogorku than a new parliament. A social media Kenesh. Of the sixteen parties that stood for campaign mobilised highly aggressive pro- election only four passed the seven percent tests dominated by supporters of Sadyr hurdle: Birimdik represents the political Japarov – who since has been calling the establishment backing (now former) Presi- shots in . dent Sooronbai Jeenbekov (elected October 2017), while Mekenim Kyrgyzstan is widely believed to function as the political wing The Government Falls of organised crime. Two minor opposition parties also won seats. Japarov’s political career began during the Supporters of the defeated parties rallied “ ” of 2005, which ended the to the irregularities documented rule of and brought Kurman- during the campaign and demanded that bek Bakiyev to power. Bakiyev and his the result be annulled. The Central Election party combined a nationalist agenda with

an increasingly authoritarian style of gov- strategic locations in Bishkek and demanded ernment. In April 2010 he in turn was the resignation of President Jeenbekov. driven from office by mass protests. The Jeenbekov had indicated his willingness significance of this second revolution to step down, but initially insisted on an was that it brought about a constitutional orderly succession. He was gone by 15 Octo- reform redistributing power between the ber, plainly under pressure from Japarov president, prime minister and parliament and his militant supporters. Kanat Isayev, and laid the groundwork for a parliamen- as speaker of parliament Jeenbekov’s con- tary system. Japarov continued to promote stitutional interim successor, declined the the nationalist line, now as a member opportunity. On 16 October parliament ap- of parliament for the new Ata-Jurt party, pointed Japarov instead, and the Supreme which was founded as a vehicle for Baki- Court acquitted him of all outstanding yev’s supporters. He and associates did not charges. Japarov was now both prime min- shy from violent methods, storming the ister and interim president. seat of the president and parliament in 2012 in an attempt to overthrow the gov- ernment. Japarov avoided a prison sentence Parliamentary Rubber Stamp by fleeing abroad, but was detained in 2017 while attempting to re-enter the country Japarov had always been clear that he and sentenced to eleven-and-a-half years intended to restore Kyrgyzstan’s presiden- imprisonment. tial system, prepare a new constitution and Japarov was still in a high-security prison have it approved by referendum. But first in Bishkek when the vote was held on the new elections to the Jogorku Kenesh had to 4 October 2020. As the post-election protests be held: Under pressure from Japarov’s par- swelled, demonstrators stormed the prison liamentary associates they had been post- on 5 October and freed Japarov along with poned again by the Central Election Com- a string of other political figures. While the mission – to 20 December – citing cir- others were soon back behind bars, Japarov’s cumstances beyond its control. This was supporters installed him as leader within not the only instance of what Kyrgyz legal days. Faced with protesters threatening vio- experts regard as unconstitutional trans- lence the prime minister resigned on 6 Oc- gression of parliamentary powers. An tober and Japarov declared himself head of amendment to the Electoral Law rushed government by the “will of the people”. through by a majority of deputies on 22 Oc- Parliament initially refused to back him, tober permitted the Jogorku Kenesh election but relented after street fighting continued to be postponed until summer 2021. The between Japarov’s supporters and oppo- parliamentary vote was accompanied by nents, appointing him prime minister in gross procedural violations and probably an extraordinary session of parliament on also outright fraud. Postponing the election 10 October. The legitimacy of the vote was was crucial for Japarov, enabling him to contested, the decisive session being in- mobilise support for a rapid constitutional quorate with fewer than half the members amendment through strategic alliances present. But the new leader moved fast, in in the existing Jogorku Kenesh and thus ob- particular appointing members of his net- viating the danger of a new parliament work – many of them associates of former blocking his plans. President Bakiyev – to key positions. The The Constitutional Chamber of the first cabinet meeting was held on 12 Octo- Supreme Court rejected a case brought by ber; two days later parliament confirmed Kyrgyz activists seeking to challenge the par- the self-appointed prime minister, this time liament’s decision on the basis of an amicus with the required quorum. curiae brief that it itself had requested from Japarov had not yet reached his goal, how- the Venice Commission of the Council of ever. His supporters continued to occupy Europe. Nor were protests and demonstra-

SWP Comment 8 January 2021

2 tions able to stop the roll-out of an obviously the single-chamber parliament is likely to strategically planned transformation of the be reduced from 120 to 90 (as it was before political system. On 17 November the par- 2010), a “congress of the people” (kurultay) liament website published a draft proposal modelled on Kyrgyz tradition is to function for a new constitution, which probably as “supreme consultative and coordinating originates from still influential circles as- organ of popular rule”. The modalities of sociated with former President Bakiyev; election or appointment of its members Talant Mamytov, who stepped in as acting have yet to be clarified. The president will head of state on 14 November to allow decide when the congress convenes and Japarov to stand in the presidential elec- report to it; it will advise him on appoint- tion, appointed an 89-member commission ments and all areas of policy. to finalise the text. At the same time the Unlike the constitution of 2010, the new date was set for the presidential election proposal of 2020 makes no mention of rule and the parallel referendum in which the of law. Instead the preamble emphasises voters were to choose between a “presiden- “orientation on the traditions and recom- tial republic”, a “parliamentary republic” mendations of the ancestors” and “moral or “neither option” (the latter meaning to principles common to mankind”, which maintain the status quo). While experts are explained in a specific article and place were still arguing over whether it was legiti- special weight on patriarchal norms of mate to hold a referendum without giving family, tradition and religion. The dissemi- the public opportunity to properly debate nation of information that contradicts the proposal, parliament was again creating “accepted moral values and traditions” facts on the ground: A compliant majority becomes an offence subject to prosecution. rushed the required legislation through on If these values are granted constitutional 10 December. status it must be feared that they will also be codified in positive law.

Forward to the Past A Polarised Society Almost 80 percent of voters chose Japarov on 10 January, and even more backed a These changes represent a clear rejection presidential system of government. Even if of the democratic principles and rule of law turnout was slightly less than 40 percent, established by the 2010 revolution. Japarov the result is beyond doubt. The way is clear has consistently legitimised his power grab for the constitutional transformation as “the will of the people”. He enjoys the desired by Japarov and his associates. While support of a rapidly mobilisable alliance of the proposal has yet to be finalised, and the disaffected – who reject the parliamen- there will probably be another referendum tary system and its political and intellectual to confirm it, it clearly introduces far- establishment – as well as the backing of reaching changes. As would be expected in significant sections of the elites. The idea of a presidential system the president heads a strong president ensuring order and jus- the executive, and is permitted to serve two tice is apparently attractive to the national- five-year terms (rather than previously one ists and conservatives who make up the bulk six-year term). The prime minister is – in of Japarov’s supporters. They skew heavily a departure from the 2010 constitution – rural, where large parts of the population appointed by and answerable to the presi- struggle to make ends meet. The populist dent. Parliament can remove the president promise of “honest politics” resonates only on grounds of grave misconduct or there, as do Japarov’s simplistic claims and medical incapacity. explanations. The constitutional proposal is imbued Criticisms of Japarov’s democratic defi- with neo-traditionalism. While the size of cits do no harm to his popularity. The open

SWP Comment 8 January 2021

3 and latent violence that propelled him to power does not in the eyes of his supporters speak against him, nor did his aggressive election campaign or the fact that he diverted state resources to fund it. Even the suspicion that prominent criminals funded Japarov’s campaign and that his popularity was boosted by professional social media mani- pulation appears not to concern his adher- ents. © Stiftung Wissenschaft Hard times are ahead for critics of Japa- und Politik, 2021 rov’s authoritarian . This applies All rights reserved to all the civil society organisations, intel- lectuals, journalists, and not least the many This Comment reflects women who have been campaigning for the author’s views. years for human rights and a democratic The online version of order. These groups have experienced in- this publication contains timidation and threats of violence since the functioning links to other events of October 2020, and it must be feared SWP texts and other relevant that the pressure will increase. This applies sources. above all in the event of Japarov failing SWP Comments are subject to fulfil the expectations of his supporters. to internal peer review, fact- In order to stifle protests he might – like checking and copy-editing. Bakiyev before him – be tempted to deflect For further information on criticism using increasingly repressive means. our quality control pro- Germany and the EU should do every- cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- thing in their power to prevent that hap- berlin.org/en/about-swp/ pening, firstly pressing for a fundamental quality-management-for- revision of the draft constitution, which swp-publications/ is currently being reviewed by the Venice Commission. Beyond that, support for criti- SWP cal media should be foregrounded and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik prioritised in political dialogue. German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected]

ISSN 1861-1761 doi: 10.18449/2021C08

Translation by Meredith Dale

(English version of SWP-Aktuell 4/2021)

Dr. Andrea Schmitz is Senior Associate in the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Research Division at SWP.

SWP Comment 8 January 2021

4