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The Effects of Familiarity and Persuasion on Risk Assessment Dissertations and Theses Summer 2012 The Effects of Familiarity and Persuasion on Risk Assessment Casey L. Smith Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University - Daytona Beach Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.erau.edu/edt Part of the Psychology Commons, and the Space Vehicles Commons Scholarly Commons Citation Smith, Casey L., "The Effects of Familiarity and Persuasion on Risk Assessment" (2012). Dissertations and Theses. 131. https://commons.erau.edu/edt/131 This Thesis - Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE EFFECTS OF FAMILIARITY AND PERSUASION ON RISK ASSESSMENT By CASEY L. SMITH B.S., Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, 2007 A Proposal Submitted to the Department of Human Factors & Systems in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Human Factors and Systems Embry Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL Summer 2012 ABSTRACT Cognitive biases influence decisions and the analyses of risk. They are often derived from two separate processes: bias based on familiarity (familiarity bias) and bias as the result of influences from outside sources (persuasion bias). Research suggests that familiarity-based bias may lead to acceptance of an activity’s drawbacks and a leniency of its risks. In addition, research has tried to measure and analyze different types of biases individually, but few have compared the interactions of more than one bias at once. Because different biases may derive from different mental phenomena it is important to tease out the distinctions, and observe how they interact with each other. This study conducted an empirical test that attempted to answer the following questions: Does familiarity and affiliation of the topics of radiation, low-earth orbit, and space travel result in a lesser concern, and therefore leniency, of the risks involved? How effective is on-the-spot persuasion when discussing risk assessment? How well does increased familiarity of a high-risk activity protect against on-the-spot persuasion? Surveys were distributed to 409 students from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. The surveys were meant to collect the familiarity and preference levels of the participants regarding commercial space travel; they were also meant to expose the participants to persuasion conditions in order to influence their perceptions of risk. Non- parametric tests were performed in order to test the interactions. Data show that no significant bias occurred as the result of persuasion; however significance was detected between participants with high familiarity and low familiarity when they were not intentionally persuaded. Implications of these results are included. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... x Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Cognitive Biases ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Explanations of Bias: History and Theories.............................................................................................. 6 Egocentricity, beneffectance, and cognitive conservatism. .................................................................. 6 The role of memory. ............................................................................................................................. 7 Schemata and cognitive heuristics. ....................................................................................................... 9 Internal versus external. ...................................................................................................................... 11 Self-determination theory. .................................................................................................................. 13 Anchoring and adjustment theory. ...................................................................................................... 15 Phenomenon of unidimensional opinions. .......................................................................................... 18 Biological basis of bias. ...................................................................................................................... 22 Data/Frame Theory. ............................................................................................................................ 25 Cognitive bias discussion. ................................................................................................................... 26 Bias Types ............................................................................................................................................... 29 Optimism bias. .................................................................................................................................... 29 Attribution bias. .................................................................................................................................. 31 Confirmation bias. .............................................................................................................................. 31 Hindsight bias. .................................................................................................................................... 33 Order bias. ........................................................................................................................................... 33 Knowledge bias................................................................................................................................... 35 Familiarity bias. .................................................................................................................................. 36 iv Persuasion bias. ................................................................................................................................... 39 Bias Mitigation ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Perception of Risk ....................................................................................................................................... 47 Risk Assessment ..................................................................................................................................... 48 Familiarity and the Leniency of Risk. ..................................................................................................... 55 The Present Study and Hypotheses ............................................................................................................. 59 Independent Variables............................................................................................................................. 61 Familiarity bias. .................................................................................................................................. 62 Persuasion bias. ................................................................................................................................... 63 Dependent Variables ............................................................................................................................... 65 Confound Concerns and Work-Arounds ................................................................................................. 68 Statement of the Hypothesis ................................................................................................................... 71 Methods ...................................................................................................................................................... 73 Design ..................................................................................................................................................... 73 Participants .............................................................................................................................................. 76 Materials ................................................................................................................................................. 78 Procedure ................................................................................................................................................ 80 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 84 Statistics .................................................................................................................................................. 84 Risk Assessment. ...............................................................................................................................
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