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Zee Entertainment India Equity Research | Media & Entertainment © May 10, 2017 Result Update Emkay Zee Entertainment Your success is our success Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report CMP Target Price Rs 516 Rs 580 (.) as of (5/10/2017) 12 months Yet another quarter of EBITDA Rating Upside outperformance ACCUMULATE (.) 12.4 % . Once again, Zee reported better than expected operating performance. Continued benefit Change in Estimates of lower placement costs was reflected with 18% yoy decline in other operating expenses. EPS Chg FY18E/FY19E (%) NA . Underlying domestic advertisement revenue growth was 8.1% despite residual impact of Target Price change (%) NA demonetization. Reported financial are not comparable due to sale of sports business. Target Period (Months) 12 Domestic subscription revenue decline of 3% yoy was lower than our estimate of 6%. Previous Reco ACCUMULATE . As stated in our recent note Link, we expect Zee to deliver healthy advertisement revenue Emkay vs Consensus growth of 14% in FY18, backed by sustained market share in regional channels and EPS Estimates aggressive spends on acquiring movie rights. FY18E FY19E Emkay 14.9 18.4 . Revival in Zee TV’s viewership share is imperative, continued delays in the same could Consensus 16.0 19.3 weigh on stock price. We are estimating 17%/15% increase in domestic subscription Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 548 revenue for FY18/19E, implementation of new tariff order would be closely watched. Stock Details Another quarter of healthy operating performance Bloomberg Code Z IN Face Value (Rs) 1 Consolidated revenue at Rs15.3bn was flat on yoy basis. Ad revenues were flat on yoy basis (vs estimate of 2%) aided by robust growth of 8.6% yoy in domestic while impacted by 53% Shares outstanding (mn) 960 decline in international. Subscription revenue was down 6% yoy to Rs5580mn (vs estimate of 52 Week H/L 590 / 415 -8%), decline was due to high base on account of catch up revenue in 4Q. Domestic M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 496 / 7.67 subscription decline 2.7% yoy to Rs4.6bn and international subscription revenue declined Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 15,48,219 18.7% yoy to Rs1,026mn. Other operating income at Rs1.2bn vs Rs802mn in Q4FY16. Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 12.5 Consolidated EBITDA at Rs4.7bn, up 14% yoy (13% beat). EBITDA margin expanded 367bps Shareholding Pattern Mar '17 yoy to 30.7%. Ex-sports EBITDA margin stood at 32.9% (+94bps yoy). Programming and Promoters 43.1% content cost was down 5.6% yoy. Advertisement spends are down 14.6% yoy and other opex is down 18.6% yoy. These factors resulted to EBITDA beat. Adjusted PAT stood at Rs2.4bn FIIs 46.4% vs Rs1.4bn, up 70% yoy (driven by higher other income and lower tax rate. Exceptional gain DIIs 4.4% was Rs12bn pertaining to sports business sale. Public and Others 6.2% Outlook: Confident of outperforming industry growth Price Performance Increased investment towards movie satellite rights is expected to drive advertisement (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M revenue till Zee TV’s market share recovers. Higher movie revenues are also margin accretive Absolute (7) - 2 24 for Zee due to its aggressive accounting policy for amortization. However, market share loss Rel. to Nifty (9) (7) (7) 5 of Zee TV over the last few months has been the key concern as it would restrict Relative price chart outperformance to industry advertisement growth. The management has maintained its 600 Rs % 20 guidance of +30% EBITDA margin for FY18 while Zee has consistently delivered +32% margin over the last 10 years in entertainment business (except FY15 & FY16 as higher cost 560 14 was on account of &TV launch). We believe, the company can easily deliver +33% EBITDA 520 8 margin in entertainment business going forward despite aggressive content investments. 480 2 440 -4 Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) 400 -10 (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Revenue 48,837 58,515 64,341 66,024 75,155 Zee Entertainment (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) Source: Bloomberg EBITDA 12,538 15,095 19,269 22,464 26,660 This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The EBITDA Margin (%) 25.7 25.8 29.9 34.0 35.5 following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation: APAT 9,775 10,709 12,161 15,443 18,505 EPS (Rs) 8.9 9.9 12.4 14.9 18.4 Naval Seth EPS (% chg) (3.1) 10.9 25.8 19.9 23.4 [email protected] +91 22 66242414 ROE (%) 16.6 16.1 19.8 22.4 22.9 P/E (x) 57.9 52.2 41.5 34.6 28.0 Ashish Agrawal [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 38.2 31.5 25.0 21.0 17.2 +91 22 66121241 P/BV (x) 8.9 7.9 8.5 7.1 5.9 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES. Zee Entertainment (Z IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Exhibit 1: Actual vs estimates for Q4FY17 Consensus Estimate % variation (Rs mn) Actual estimate Comment (Emkay) (Bloomberg) Emkay Consensus Revenue 15,280 15,168 15,713 1% -3% Revenue was in line with estimates EBITDA 4,687 4,152 4,458 13% 5% EBITDA beat led by strict cost control EBITDA, margin 31% 27% 28% 331 bps 230 bps PAT was higher on account of exceptional gain PAT 15,129 2,879 3,068 425% 393% of Rs12bn pertaining to sports business sale Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 2: Quarterly Financials Rs mn Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY 17 FY 16 YoY (%) Ad revenue 8,472 9,120 9,592 9,555 8,469 (0.0) (11.4) 36,735 33,652 9.2 Subscription Revenue 5,944 5,282 5,833 5,935 5,580 (6.1) (6.0) 22,629 20,579 10.0 Others 802 1,315 1,529 902 1,231 53.5 36.4 4,977 3,894 27.8 Net Sales 15,218 15,716 16,954 16,391 15,280 0.4 (6.8) 64,341 58,125 10.7 Programming Cost 6,913 6,575 7,688 7,035 6,527 (5.6) (7.2) 27,825 25,984 7.1 as % of sales 45.4 41.8 45.3 42.9 42.7 43.2 44.7 Employee Expenses 1,222 1,499 1,533 1,419 1,593 30.3 12.2 6,043 4,986 21.2 as % of sales 8.0 9.5 9.0 8.7 10.4 9.4 8.6 Admin and Other expense 2,974 3,110 2,841 2,780 2,474 (16.8) (11.0) 11,205 12,019 (6.8) as % of sales 19.5 19.8 16.8 17.0 16.2 17.4 20.7 Total operating expenditure 11109 11185 12062 11233 10593 (4.6) (5.7) 45073 42989 4.8 EBITDA 4110 4532 4892 5158 4687 14.0 (9.1) 19269 15136 27.3 Depreciation 209 251 336 249 316 51.1 27.0 1,152 777 48.3 EBIT 3900 4280 4556 4909 4371 12.1 (11.0) 18116 14359 26.2 Other Income 375 734 432 525 549 46.4 4.7 2,240 1,951 14.8 Interest 1,333 75 86 90 1,122 1,372 1,598 - Exceptional Item Fair value through P&L) 835 -1,132 -829 -714 12,705 10,030 -1,003 PBT 3778 3807 4074 4630 16503 336.8 256.5 29014 13710 111.6 Tax 1,573 1,626 1,634 2,081 1,464 (6.9) (29.6) 6,805 5,491 23.9 PAT before MI 2205 2181 2440 2549 15039 582.1 490.0 22209 8218 170.2 MI -60 12 56 41 -90 50.8 (319.7) 18 -13 (236.1) PAT after MI 2265 2203 2384 2508 15129 568.0 503.3 22224 8387 165.0 PAT before comprehensive income 2,265 2,170 2,384 2,508 15,129 568.0 503.3 22,191 8,232 169.6 Adjusted PAT 1430 3335 3213 3221 2425 69.6 (24.7) 12194 9390 29.9 Margins (%) (bps) (bps) (bps) EBIDTA 27.0 28.8 28.9 31.5 30.7 367 (79) 29.9 26.0 391 EBIT 25.6 27.2 26.9 29.9 28.6 298 (134) 28.2 24.7 345 EBT 24.8 24.2 24.0 28.2 108.0 8,318 7,976 45.1 23.6 2,151 PAT 14.5 13.9 14.4 15.6 98.4 8,394 8,287 34.5 14.1 2,038 Effective Tax rate 41.6 42.7 40.1 44.9 8.9 (3,277) (3,607) 23.5 40.1 (1,660) Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES. ED: D. SINHA SA May 10, 2017 2 Zee Entertainment (Z IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Exhibit 3: Quarterly performance Sports Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 YoY (%) QoQ (%) FY 17 FY 16 YoY (%) Revenue 1,601 1,700 2,125 1,411 1,066 (33.4) (24.5) 6,302 6,312 (0) Opex 1,837 1,529 2,293 1,334 1,049 (42.9) (21.4) 6,205 6,661 (7) EBITDA (236) 171 (168) 77 17 (107.2) (77.9) 97 -349 (128) Ex-Sports Financials Revenue 13,617 14,016 14,829 14,980 14,214 4.4 (5.1) 58,039 51,813 12 Opex 9,272 9,656 9,769 9,899 9,544 2.9 (3.6) 38,868 36,328 7.0 EBITDA 4,346 4,361 5,060 5,081 4,670 7.5 (8.1) 19,172 15,485 24 EBITDA % 31.9 31.1 34.1 33.9 32.9 94 (106) 33.0 29.9 315 Segmental Revenues Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 YoY % QoQ % FY 17 FY 16 YoY % Ad Revenue 8,472 9,120 9,592 9,555 8,469 (0.0) (11.4) 36,735 33,652 9.2 Subscription revenue 5,944 5,282 5,833 5,935 5,580 (6.1) (6.0) 22,629 20,579 10.0 A) Domestic 4,682 4,179 4,675 4,818 4,554 (2.7) (5.5) 18,226 16,302 11.8 B) International 1,262 1,103 1,158 1,117 1,026 (18.7) (8.1) 4,404 4,276 3.0 Others 802 1,315 1,529 902 1,231 53.5 36.4 4,977 3,894 27.8 Total Sales 15,218 15,716 16,954 16,391 15,280 0.4 (6.8) 64,341 58,125 10.7 Source: Company, Emkay Research Other highlights .
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