Electoral Review of Leeds City Council Leeds’ submission on a Pattern of Wards to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England 1 | Page Contents Page Joint Statement from Group Leaders 3 Executive Summary 4 Part 1: Introduction and the Council’s Approach to Proposing a 6 Pattern of Wards Part 2: Leeds - A City of Towns and Villages 9 Overview 9 Areas of Distinctive Character 9 Housing 11 Population 13 Town and Parish Councils 15 Part 3: Electorate Forecast 16 Authority level forecast using ONS Mid-Year Estimates 16 Electorate to household ratio 16 Occupancy rates 16 Forecasting the electorate using housing data 17 Ward level electorate forecast using housing data 17 Conclusions 19 Appendix A: Proposals – Major Changes 23 A1: City & Hunslet / Hyde Park & Woodhouse / Headingley 24 A2: Cross Gates & Whinmoor / Harewood 29 A3: Kirkstall / Bramley & Stanningley 31 Appendix B: Proposals – Minor Changes 32 B1: Adel & Wharfedale / Alwoodley 33 B2: Adel & Wharfedale / Weetwood 34 B3: Ardsley & Robin Hood / Rothwell 35 B4: Armley / Beeston & Holbeck 36 B5: Beeston & Holbeck / Farnley & Wortley 37 B6: Farnley & Wortley / Morley North 38 B7: Garforth & Swillington / Kippax & Methley 39 B8: Garforth & Swillington / Rothwell 40 B9: Garforth & Swillington / Temple Newsam 41 B10: Harewood / Cross Gates & Whinmoor 42 B11: Horsforth / Otley & Yeadon 43 B12: Morley North / Morley South 44 B13: Weetwood / Moortown (first proposal) 45 B14: Weetwood / Moortown (second proposal) 46 Appendix C: Conclusions 47 2 | Page We introduce this submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission on behalf of the constituents of the City of Leeds that we, and our elected colleagues, represent. The last electoral review of the Leeds area was completed in July 2003. Since that review concluded, Leeds’ population has increased by over 50,000 people. Our forecasted electorate for 2021 includes a number of new developments as part of our Core Strategy which will see our electorate increase by an estimated further 43,000 people. There have been a number of new developments built across existing ward boundaries since the last review which we would also like to address as part of our proposals. All these changes have increased the number of electors in many wards. The proposals we have made in this submission will seek to address that and ensure the average number of electors in each ward is more consistent. Our approach to developing our proposals is to minimise major changes as far as possible. This helps ensure any proposed changes maintains existing communities and settlements as much as possible so they retain their identities and local cohesion. Local Ward Members have been invaluable in this process with their local knowledge of the wards and communities they represent. We established a working group of senior Members to lead on this important work liaising with all Members. It is our view that the changes to our ward boundaries proposed in this document accurately represents our communities and provides a better balance of the electorate across our wards, maintaining effective and convenient local government for everyone living in Leeds. Signed Signed Signed Signed Councillor Councillor Councillor Councillor Judith Andrew Robert David Blake Carter Finnigan Blackburn Leader of Leader of the Leader of the Leader of the Council & Opposition & MBI Group Green Group Leader of the Leader of the Labour Group Conservative Group 3 | Page Part 1: Introduction and the Council’s Approach to Proposing a Pattern of Wards 1. Electoral Reviews are reviews of the electoral arrangements of local authorities which determine: - the total number of councillors to be elected to the council; the number and boundaries of wards; the number of councillors to be elected for each ward; and, the name of any ward. 2. Electoral Reviews are initiated primarily to improve electoral equality. This means ensuring, so far as is reasonable, that for any principal council, the ratio of electors to councillors in each electoral ward or division, is approximately the same. 3. When the electoral variances in representation across a local authority become notable, an Electoral Review is required. The criteria for initiating a review in those circumstances are as follows: - more than 30% of a council’s wards/divisions having an electoral imbalance of more than 10% from the average ratio for that authority; and/or one or more wards/divisions with an electoral imbalance of more than 30%; and the imbalance is unlikely to be corrected by foreseeable changes to the electorate within a reasonable period. 4. The Commission wrote to Leeds on 10 June 2014 to advise that on the basis of the electoral data they held for our authority, City and Hunslet Ward (the largest in the country) had an electoral variance from the average for our authority of 35.33%. As this met the criteria above the Commission advised its intention to conduct an Electoral Review. 5. Before the review commenced, the council was required to decide whether to continue to elect in thirds with a fallow year every fourth year, or to alternatively move to all-out elections every four years. The council informed the Commission that there was cross party support for elections by thirds to continue. 6. Another key issue which the Boundary Commission wished to have initial feedback on was the size of the council. The council provided robust evidence to support their view that 99 Members was the correct size to represent the diverse population of Leeds. The Commission agreed with this and announced that it is minded to retain the council size at 99 Members for Leeds. 6 | Page 7. The Boundary Commission are currently consulting on changes to warding arrangements for Leeds. Anyone with an interest can submit a proposal to for a new pattern of ward boundaries. Any submissions need to be received by the Commission no later than 5 September. 8. The Boundary Commission provide guidance to enable the strongest possible case to be put to the Commission. That guidance makes clear that the aspects that the Commission look at when making a decision on warding arrangements are: - The new pattern of wards should mean that each councillor represents roughly the same number of voters as elected members elsewhere in the authority; Ward patterns should – as far as possible – reflect community interests and identities and boundaries should be identifiable; and The electoral arrangements should promote effective and convenient local government and reflect the electoral cycle of the council. The Council’s Approach to Proposing a Pattern of Wards 9. The council formed a working group of senior Members to lead on proposals to change ward boundaries in Leeds to ensure that, as far as is reasonable, the ratio of electors to councillors in each electoral ward, is approximately the same. 10. All 99 Members in Leeds were informed of the review and invited to submit recommendations for change to the working group. Ward councillors were consulted again on any proposals that were recommended for their ward. Members took into consideration the following information when considering their recommendations: - local opinion of their constituents; past history of communities and settlements in their wards; community boundaries formed by parish or town councils; and Community interests and identities including history of the area, community groups, settlements, parish or town councils, local amenities, and natural boundaries to well established communities. 11. The working group focussed its attention on the main areas of electoral inequality and has submitted proposals for some major changes to ward boundaries in Appendix A in the following wards:- City & Hunslet / Hyde Park & Woodhouse / Headingley Cross Gates & Whinmoor / Harewood Kirkstall / Bramley & Stanningley 12. The working group has also looked at some long-standing anomalies that have been created by new developments being built over existing ward boundaries, or the shifting of 7 | Page community interests and identities which are now split over existing ward boundaries. The working group has submitted proposals for some more minor changes to address these anomalies in Appendix B in the following wards:- Adel & Wharfedale / Alwoodley Adel & Wharfedale / Weetwood Ardsley & Robin Hood / Rothwell Armley / Beeston & Holbeck Beeston & Holbeck / Farnley & Wortley Farnley & Wortley / Morley North Garforth & Swillington / Kippax & Methley Garforth & Swillington / Rothwell Garforth & Swillington / Temple Newsam Harewood / Cross Gates & Whinmoor Horsforth / Otley & Yeadon Morley North / Morley South Weetwood / Moortown (two proposals) 13. Appendix C applies all the changes proposed in the previous two appendices and shows their effect on the electorate forecast for 2021. 8 | Page Part 2: Leeds - A City of Towns and Villages 1. In our earlier submission to the Commission regarding the size of the Council, we provided an overview of the changes to warding arrangements, population and housing developments in Leeds. That information is equally relevant as background to our submission for revised warding arrangements and is partly reproduced and updated below. Overview 2. Leeds has transformed from a mainly industrial city into a regional capital with a wide economic base. As the leading financial and legal centre in the UK outside London, the city is home to some of the largest financial institutions in the country and this economic strength is widely recognised as placing Leeds in an advantageous