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DOLLAR TREE Equity Valuation & Analysis

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DOLLAR TREE Equity Valuation & Analysis DOLLAR TREE Equity Valuation & Analysis [June 02, 2007] Arun Chauhan [email protected] Jacob Caldwell [email protected] Maegan Farrris [email protected] Matt Ramirez [email protected] Phillip Adcock [email protected] - 0 - Table of Content Executive Summary 2 Financial Analysis 40 Industry Analysis 3 Liquidity Ratios 40 Accounting Analysis 4 Profitability Ratios 48 Financial Analysis 4 Capital Structure Ratios 56 Valuations 5 Financial Statement Analysis 61 Income Statement 62 Business and Industry Analysis 7 Balance Sheet 63 Company Overview 7 Cash Flow Statement 65 Industry Overview 8 Five Forces Model 9 Analysis of Valuations 66 Rivalry Among Existing Firms 10 Weighted Average Cost of Capital 67 Threat of New Entrants 15 Method of Comparables 69 Threat of Substitute Products 17 Intrinsic Valuations Methods 77 Bargaining Power of Customers 18 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 20 Appendices 89 Value Chain Analysis Competitive Strategies 21 Firm Competitive Advantage Analysis 23 References 118 Accounting Analysis 25 Key Accounting Policies 25 Potential Accounting Flexibility 28 Actual Accounting Strategy 29 Quality of Disclosure 32 Qualitative 32 Quantitative (Screening Ratios) 32 Revenue Diagnostics 33 Expense Diagnostics 34 Potential Red Flags 39 Undo Accounting Distortions 39 - 1 - Executive Summary Investment Recommendation: Overvalued, Sell 6/1/07 DLTR – NasdaqGS(6/1/07) - $42.41 EPS Forecast 52 week range: $26.22 - $42.21 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Initial 2.29 2.57 2.88 3.22 3.61 Revenue: (1/31/2007) $3969.40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Revised Market Capitalization – (yahoo.finance) $4.36B 3.27 3.41 3.56 3.69 3.81 Shares Outstanding $99.66M Ratio comparison DLTR DG FDO NDN 3-mth Avg Daily Trading Volume: 1,275,050 Trailing P/E 38.5 54.54 22.46 95.76 Percent Institutional Ownership: 94% Forward P/E 22.02 25.30 18.73 43.59 Book Value per Share: (Equity/Shares) $11.72 PEG 1.77 1.95 1.59 2.41 ROE: .16 P/B 3.89 3.82 3.95 1.68 ROA: .11 Valuations Estimates Cost of Capital est. R2 Beta Ke Actual Price (6/1/07): $42.21 3-Month .0013 .097 .058 Ratio Based Valuations 6-Month .3520 1.7129 .1722 Trailing P/E 71.23 2-Year .3563 1.7187 Forward P/E 40.73 5-Year .3543 1.7159 .1719 PEG 18.01 10-Year .3574 1.7209 .0217 P/B 42.58 Kd .05425 P/EBITDA 17.42 WACC 15.9% P/FCF 47.20 EV/EBITDA 33.15 Altman Z-Score Intrinsic Valuations Initial Revised 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Free Cash Flows 46.73 46.63 Initial 9.95 8.37 6.44 6.11 6.76 Residual Income 12.98 9.55 Revised 5.02 5.58 4.27 4.01 4.31 LR ROE 4.36 26.47 AEG 7.11 7.63 - 2 - Recommendation – Overvalued Firm Industry Analysis “Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. is a customer-oriented, value driven variety store, operating at a one dollar price point. The company’s mission will be consistent with controlled and profitable growth” (Mission Statement, dollartree.com). They are categorized in the Discount Variety Industry. Dollar Tree was established in Dalton, GA in 1986. Currently, their headquarters is located in Chesapeake, VA. As of 2007, there are 3,219 Dollar Stores in 48 states. This number has grown from 2,914 in just one year. Dollar Tree’s direct competitors discussed in this valuation paper are Family Dollar, Dollar General, and 99 Cent Only store. In the discount variety industry, firms compete on cost rather than on quality. The industry is currently growing at 2.38%. Dollar Tree has 19% of the market share in terms of total revenue. From the Five Forces Model we determined that rivalry among existing firms and the threat of substitute products are very high in this particular industry. This is mainly due to the low consumer loyalty that is associated with undifferentiated products. Similar products also yield low switching costs which increases the threat of substitute products. The threat of new entrants, the bargaining power of customers, and the bargaining power of suppliers are all low in the discount variety industry. The low threat of new entrants is due to the preexisting relationships that must exist with the suppliers. The threat of bargaining power of customers and suppliers are low because the products are undifferentiated. Also, because the prices are already so low, there is no need to bargain for a lower price. Dollar Tree’s key success factors are economies of scale, low cost distribution, and tight cost control. Following these factors, Dollar Tree is trying to grow their customer base and become more of a leading force in the Discount Variety Industry. One way in which they are trying to achieve this is by acquiring other stores, opening new stores, and be selling perishable items in their stores in order to make Dollar Tree a one-stop venue for their customers. - 3 - Accounting Analysis An accounting analysis analyzes a firm’s accounting practices and determines if the employed accounting practices reflect the true or attainable transparent information about the firm. The accounting analysis can help in valuing the firm and can help spot potential “red flags”. The key accounting policies should agree with the key success factors which include: economies of scale, low-cost distribution, and tight cost control. Dealing with economies of scale, Dollar Tree experienced a very notable increase in revenue with the increase in their retail outlets. The disclosure of leases is another important aspect that falls under key accounting policies. Most of Dollar Tree’s stores are under operating leases. Dollar Tree expenses these as rent expense and does not report the future obligation on their balance sheet. The flexibility in GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, can lead to distortions in the financial statements. However, Dollar Tree’s information is transparent and they provide a fairly high amount of disclosure about their firm’s position. Dollar Tree is aggressive in their accounting practices with their operating leases. This has a significant effect on both their net income and to their Balance Sheet. In computing the ratio diagnostics, we did not identify any real “red flags”. One thing that might need to be looked into as a potential “red flag” is Dollar Tree’s operating leases. These leases are amortized on a straight line basis over the term of the leases. As a result of Dollar Tree not capitalizing their leases, their liabilities were understated by $920M as compared to their total reported liabilities in 2006 of $705.6M. Financial Analysis, Forecast Financials and Cost of Capital Estimation In the process of assessing the outlook of a firm, analysts make estimates regarding the firm’s liquidity, profitability, and capital structure based on financial statements, present and forecasted. By making these estimates, analysts can - 4 - benchmark the firm being analyzed against the other firms in the industry. These ratios are then used to forecast a firm’s financial statements for the next ten years. Once a Beta is calculated, analysts can use Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate cost of equity for the firm. Then, a cost of capital for the firm can be determined using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Dollar Tree is a fairly liquid company in relation to its competitors and the industry average. Its Current Ratio and Quick Asset Ratio are above the industry average, which says that it is able to pay off its current liabilities better than the industry as a whole. Its Days Supply Inventory is higher than the industry average which means that it takes them longer, on average, to move merchandise than the competition. Its Inventory Turnover, and Working Capital Turnover are lower than the industry average. As far as profitability goes, Dollar Tree is very profitable in comparison with the industry. Operating Profit Margin, Net Profit Margin, Return on Assets, and Return on Equity are all areas that Dollar Tree rises above the industry as a whole. The only area of profitability that Dollar Tree lacks in is Asset Turnover. Dollar Tree’s capital structure is about like the industry average, which says that they are able to support their debt just about as well as the industry as a whole. When forecasting, analysts make assumptions to determine the future years’ growth or decline. Dollar Tree’s Forecast for the years 2007 through 2016 were computed using our financial analysis using ratios and average growth rates. As Dollar Tree’s net income from each prior year was added back into the following year’s retained earnings, Total Assets and total Equity increased exponentially. The huge addition to Retained Earnings year by year had to be compensated for by sacrificing Total Liabilities. Valuations According to our overall valuations, Dollar Tree’s stock price is overvalued. Many people value a company based on stock price. Investors base their purchasing or selling decision on the stock price. It is the analysts job to determine whether or not the published price of the stock is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. There are - 5 - two main methods used to determine whether the stock price is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. These Methods are Method of Comparables and the Intrinsic Valuation Method. The ratios that the Method of Comparables uses the Trailing & Forecast Price- Earnings, Price to Book, Dividend Yield, P.E.G., Price over EBITDA, Price over Free Cash Flow per Share, and Enterprise Value over EBITDA. Each Ratio is then averaged for the competitors. After taking the average, price for Dollar Tree is determined by setting Dollar Tree’s ratios equal to the average and solving for price.
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