Technical and Financial Proposal

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (on behalf of the Ministry of Spatial Planning and Environment – Montenegro)

Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for Hydro Power Projects (HPPs) on the Morača River

Morača River Draft Final Report

January 2010 Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (on behalf of the Ministry Spatial Planning and Environment – Montenegro)

Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for Hydro Power Projects (HPPs) on the Morača River Draft Final Report

January 2010 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River i

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS...... IX

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - (NON TECHNICAL SUMMARY) ...... 1 1.1 Outline of the Plan ...... 1 1.2 Existing Environmental Status ...... 1 1.2.1 Environmental factors ...... 2 1.2.2 Socio-Economic factors ...... 5 1.3 Risk, Environmental Characteristics and Problem Areas ...... 5 1.4 Environmental Protection Legislation ...... 5 1.5 Evaluation of impacts ...... 6 1.6 Mitigation measures ...... 7 1.7 Alternatives ...... 8 1.8 Transboundary impacts ...... 9 1.9 Environmental Monitoring ...... 9 1.10 Conclusions ...... 9 1.10.1 Environmental Issues ...... 9 1.10.2 Socio Economic Issues ...... 11 1.11 Recommendations ...... 12 1.11.1 General ...... 12 1.11.2 Environmental, geological and hydrological ...... 12 1.11.3 Socio Economic ...... 13 PART 1 – ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING AND CONTEXT...... 14

2 OUTLINE OF DSP AND SEA ...... 14 2.1 The Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River ...... 14 2.1.1 Objectives of the DSP ...... 16 2.1.2 DSP Relationship with other plans and programs ...... 17 2.1.3 Boundaries and Scope of the DSP ...... 18 2.1.4 Detailed Development Zones ...... 18 2.1.5 Review of the Proposed Hydropower Sites ...... 18 2.1.6 Required Preparatory Works for the HPPs ...... 22 2.1.7 Roads ...... 22 2.1.8 Belgrade – Bar Railway ...... 23 2.1.9 Wastewater and Sewerage ...... 23 2.1.10 Power Houses and Power Lines from the HPPs ...... 23 2.2 Upper Catchment Reservoirs ...... 24 2.3 Background to the SEA ...... 26 2.3.1 Terms of Reference and Objectives for the SEA ...... 27 Report no. 7 2.3.2 Scope of Work and Rationale ...... 27 Issue no. 9 2.4 The Project Area for the SEA ...... 28 Date of issue January 2010 3 PROJECT CONTEXT ...... 30 Prepared DAH Checked RSS/INL/JHH/SEH/EVS/MOH/URS 3.1 Introduction ...... 30 Approved BIL 3.2 Description of Project Area - Project Setting ...... 30 3.3 Environment ...... 30 3.3.1 Biodiversity ...... 30 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River ii

3.3.2 Land Use ...... 39 3.3.3 Soil ...... 39 3.3.4 Geology ...... 40 3.3.5 Seismic Conditions ...... 41 3.3.6 Natural Resources ...... 43 3.3.7 Water Quality ...... 44 3.3.8 Hydrology ...... 47 3.3.9 Air Quality ...... 61 3.3.10 Climatic Factors ...... 62 3.3.11 Climate Change ...... 63 3.3.12 Material Assets ...... 64 3.3.13 Cultural Heritage and Cultural Monuments ...... 65 3.3.14 Landscape ...... 69 3.4 Socio-Economic ...... 71 3.4.1 Settlements and Population ...... 71 3.4.2 Human Health ...... 73 3.4.3 Education ...... 74 3.4.4 Employment ...... 74 3.4.5 Crime ...... 75 3.4.6 Local Economy and Accessibility ...... 76 3.4.7 Energy Supply and Demand ...... 77 4 RISKS, PROBLEM AREAS AND THEIR IMPACTS ...... 80 4.1 Risks and Problem Areas ...... 80 4.2 Risk Factors and Risk Areas ...... 80 4.3 Key Problems ...... 81 4.4 Problems and their Impacts ...... 82 4.4.1 Key impacts on Biodiversity ...... 82 4.4.2 Impacts on the Hydrology ...... 84 4.4.3 Impacts on Water Quality: ...... 89 4.4.4 Impacts on Cultural Heritage ...... 90 4.4.5 Geology-Hydrogeology Issues ...... 90 4.4.6 Impact on Landscape ...... 90 5 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION – RELEVANT LEGISLATION ...... 92 5.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) ...... 92 5.2 Relevant International Policy ...... 92 5.3 Relevant European Policy ...... 93 5.4 Relevant Montenegrin Policy ...... 94 5.5 Other Issues ...... 95 PART 2 ASSESSMENT...... 96

6 IMPACT IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION ...... 96 6.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) ...... 96 6.2 Comparing Sustainability Criteria with SEA Objectives ...... 96 6.3 Impact Identification for HPPs Individually and Overall ...... 100 6.4 Assessment of Impacts against SEA Objectives ...... 117 6.4.1 Discussion on Beneficial Impacts ...... 117 6.4.2 Discussion on Mixed-Neutral Impacts ...... 118 6.4.3 Discussion of Adverse Impacts ...... 120 7 MITIGATION AND OPTIMISATION MEASURES ...... 121 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River iii

7.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) ...... 121 7.2 Measures avoiding impacts altogether ...... 121 7.3 Measures partially avoiding impacts altogether ...... 122 7.4 Measures that compensate for impacts ...... 123 7.5 Measures that enhance already positive impacts ...... 124 7.6 Mitigation Plan ...... 124 8 ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES ...... 135 8.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) ...... 135 8.2 Do Nothing Option ...... 135 8.2.1 Economic Effects ...... 135 8.2.2 Social Effects ...... 136 8.2.3 Environmental Effects ...... 137 8.3 Comparison of the 4HPPs with the Do Nothing Option ...... 137 9 OUTLINE OF POTENTIAL TRANSBOUNDARY IMPACTS ...... 141 9.1 Existing dialogue with Albania in a Transboundary Context ...... 141 9.2 Issues of Importance ...... 141 10 MONITORING INDICATORS ...... 143 10.1 Monitoring Programme ...... 143 10.2 Organisation of Monitoring ...... 148 11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 149 11.1 Conclusions ...... 149 11.1.1 General ...... 149 11.1.2 Environmental ...... 149 11.1.3 Socio Economic ...... 152 11.2 Recommendations ...... 153 11.2.1 General ...... 153 11.2.2 Environmental ...... 153 11.2.3 Socio Economic ...... 155 12 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 156

13 ANNEXES ...... 159 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River iv

LIST OF FIGURES Page No

FIGURE 1-1: OUTLINE MAP OF THE SEA PROJECT AREA...... 2

FIGURE 2-2: LOCATION MAP OF THE PROPOSED FOUR HPPS ON THE MORAČA RIVER...... 15

FIGURE 2-3: LONGITUDINAL PROFILE OF THE HPPS ON THE MORAČA RIVER...... 16

FIGURE 2-4: LOCATION OF DDZS WITHIN THE DSP AREA...... 19

FIGURE 2-5: PROPOSED NETWORK DIAGRAM FOR POWER GENERATION FROM MORAČA HPPS TO NATIONAL GRID...... 24

FIGURE 2-6: UPPER CATCHMENT RESERVOIRS IN THE DSP...... 25

FIGURE 2-7: MAP OF THE OVERALL SEA PROJECT AREA...... 29

FIGURE 3-8: LOCATIONS WHERE PROTECTED PLANT SPECIES WERE FOUND...... 33

FIGURE 3-9: EXISTING AND PLANNED PROTECTED AREAS – WITH THE ANNOTATION THAT PROKLETIJE HAS BEEN DECLARED A NATIONAL PARK SINCE THE MAP WAS PRODUCED...... 38

FIGURE 3-10: GEOLOGICAL SECTION THROUGH MORAČA BASIN...... 40

FIGURE 3-11: MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE FOR SOUTHERN DINARIC ALPS (100 YEAR RETURN PERIOD)...... 42

FIGURE 3-12: LOCATION OF MAIN RIVERS AND EXISTING HPPS IN MONTENEGRO...... 48

FIGURE 3-13: MAP OF TRIBUTARIES AND HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS IN SKADAR’S CATCHMENT AREA...... 49

FIGURE 3-14: WATER FLOW AT TWO STATIONS IN THE UPPER PART OF MORAČA RIVER; PERNICA AND ZLATICA...... 50

FIGURE 3-15: MONTHLY MEAN WATER DISCHARGE DATA ...... 51

FIGURE 3-16: DIFFERENCES IN M3/S BETWEEN MORAČA AT PODGORICA AND AT ZLATICA AT DIFFERENT MONTHS...... 52

FIGURE 3-17: PROPORTION OF FLOW AT ZLATICA AS A PERCENTAGE OF FLOW IN PODGORICA...... 53

FIGURE 3-18: VARIATION IN MEAN ANNUAL DISCHARGE...... 53

FIGURE 3-19: WATER LEVELS IN SKADAR LAKE AND TRIBUTARIES MORAČA AND CRNOJEVICA...... 54

FIGURE 3-20: MORAČA WATER FLOW AT PODGORICA AND LAKE SKADAR WATER LEVELS AT PLAVNICA...... 55

FIGURE 3-21: WATER LEVELS (CM ASL) IN LAKE SKADAR AND BOJANA AND FLOW (M3/S) IN MORAČA AND DRIM...... 56 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River v

FIGURE 3-22: CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LAKE SKADAR AND, RESPECTIVELY, DRIM RIVER (ALBANIAN STATION AT VAU I DEJES), AND MORAČA RIVER AT PODGORICA IN 1984...... 56

FIGURE 3-23 CORRELATION WATER LEVELS IN LAKE SKADAR AT PLAVNICA AND RIVER BOJANA AT FRASKANJEL ...... 57

FIGURE 3-24 ACTUAL MONTHLY WATER LEVEL VARIATIONS LAKE SKADAR (PLAVNICA) + RIVER BOJANA (FRASKANJEL)...... 57

FIGURE 3-25: POPULATION TREND IN SOME SETTLEMENTS - KOLASIN MUNICIPALITY...... 72

FIGURE 3-26: POPULATION TREND IN SOME SETTLEMENTS - PODGORICA MUNICIPALITY...... 72

FIGURE 3-27: TRANSMISSION NETWORK FOR MONTENEGRO...... 79

FIGURE 4-28: MONTHLY AVERAGE FLOWS AT ZLATICA AND PODGORICA FOR ACTUAL VALUES AND SIMULATED FLOW...... 87

FIGURE 4-29: ACTUAL AND SIMULATED WATER LEVELS IN LAKE SKADAR BASED ON THE CORRELATION BETWEEN WATER LEVEL IN SKADAR LAKE AND WATER DISCHARGE IN MORAČA AS MEASURED AT PODGORICA...... 88 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River vi

LIST OF TABLES Page No

TABLE 1-1: SUMMARY OF ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF THE 4 HPPS...... 6

TABLE 1-2: SUMMARY OF ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF THE DO NOTHING OPTION...... 8

TABLE 2-3: DSP AFFECTED DISTRICTS WITHIN PODGORICA AND KOLASIN MUNICIPALITIES...... 18

TABLE 2-4: VITAL STATISTICS FOR THE HPPS ON THE MORAČA RIVER...... 18

TABLE 2-5: MAIN DIMENSIONS DETAILS OF RESERVOIRS IN MORAČA UPPER CATCHMENT...... 24

TABLE 2-6: DETAILS OF POWER GENERATION POTENTIAL FOR MORAČA UPPER CATCHMENT RESERVOIRS...... 26

TABLE 3-7: KEY ENDEMIC SPECIES OF THE SEA PROJECT AREA...... 31

TABLE 3-8: PROTECTED AREAS IN THE DSP AREA...... 37

TABLE 3-9: EXPECTED MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES - DSP AREA...... 42

TABLE 3-10: COEFFICIENT OF SEISMICITY FOR HPPS ON MORAČA RIVER (FOR A RETURN PERIOD 475 YEARS)..42

TABLE 3-11: DATA AVAILABILITY FOR DISCHARGE AND WATER LEVEL - SHOWN FOR EACH STATION...... 48

TABLE 3-12: MEAN, MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM MONTHLY AND ANNUAL (AMEAN) WATER DISCHARGES FOR UPPER MORAČA...... 50

TABLE 3-13: OVERVIEW OF MEAN MONTHLY FLOWS IN THE MORAČA RIVER SYSTEMS ...... 51

TABLE 3-14: MEAN FLOW IN UPPER MORAČA RIVER (MORAČA AT ZLATICA) AS PERCENTAGE OF MEAN FLOW AT PODGORICA; FOR MEAN, MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM MONTHLY FLOW...... 52

TABLE 3-15: AREA SPECIFIC FLOW IN SOME HYDROLOGICAL STATIONS IN THE MORAČA RIVER...... 58

TABLE 3-16: WATER BALANCE OF SKADAR LAKE AS SUGGESTED BY PROHASKA AND RISTIC (2004)...... 58

TABLE 3-17: WATER BALANCES FOR LARGER MORAČA-SKADAR CATCHMENT SYSTEM...... 59

TABLE 3-18: A SUGGESTED NEW ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL WATER FLOW INTO LAKE SKADAR...... 59

TABLE 3-19: NUMBER AND SIZE (M2) OF DWELLINGS IN THE DSP PROJECT AREA...... 64

TABLE 3-20: LIST OF SCHEDULED CULTURAL MONUMENTS IN KOLASIN AND PODGORICA MUNICIPAL AREAS..66

TABLE 3-21: COMPARISON OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN KOLASIN AND PODGORICA...... 73

TABLE 3-22: DETAILS OF EDUCATION WITHIN KOLASIN AND PODGORICA MUNICIPALITIES...... 74

TABLE 3-23: EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE OF ACTIVE POPULATION IN THE DSP PROJECT AREA...... 75 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River vii

TABLE 3-24: UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN MUNICIPALITIES (JUNE 2007)...... 75

TABLE 3-25: COMPARISON OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR 2003 TO 2007...... 78

TABLE 4-26: PLANNED VOLUMES OF RESERVOIRS IN UPPER MORAČA RIVER...... 84

TABLE 4-27: THE MEAN, MINIMUM AND 10% OF MEAN FLOWS AT ZLATICA AND PERNICA FOR THE PERIOD 1983-2002...... 84

TABLE 4-28: OVERVIEW OF MEAN MONTHLY FLOW AT TWO STATIONS IN THE MORAČA...... 86

TABLE 4-29: UNREGULATED (NATURAL) AND SIMULATED WATER LEVELS (IN M ASL) IN LAKE SKADAR...... 87

TABLE 5-30: SUMMARY OF RELEVANT EUROPEAN LEGISLATION FOR DSP FOR HPPS ON MORAČA RIVER...... 94

TABLE 6-31: SELECTED SUSTAINABILITY CRITERIA...... 96

TABLE 6-32: SEA OBJECTIVES AND COMPLIANCE WITH NATIONAL STRATEGY AND PROGRAMMES...... 97

TABLE 6-33: COMPARISON OF SUSTAINABILITY CRITERIA AGAINST SEA OBJECTIVES...... 99

TABLE 6-34: GRADING SYSTEM FOR IMPACT PARAMETERS - INDICATORS...... 100

TABLE 6-35: DETAILED IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HPP ZLATICA...... 102

TABLE 6-36: DETAILED IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HPP MILUNOVICI...... 105

TABLE 6-37: DETAILED IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HPP RASLOVICI...... 108

TABLE 6-38: DETAILED IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HPP ANDRIJEVO...... 111

TABLE 6-39: DETAILED IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR HPPS OVERALL...... 114

TABLE 6-40: CLASSIFICATION OF IMPACTS AGAINST SEA OBJECTIVES...... 117

TABLE 7-41: MITIGATION PLAN FOR MORAČA HPPS...... 126

TABLE 10-42: DRAFT MONITORING PLAN-AND PROGRAMME...... 144

LIST OF PHOTOS Page No

PHOTO 1: CURRENT VIEW OF MORAČA MONASTERY...... 4

PHOTO 2: PHOTOMONTAGE OF MORAČA MONASTERY WITH RESERVOIR...... 4

PHOTO 3: WETLAND PLAIN AT PLAVNICA...... 35

PHOTO 4: MORAČA MONASTERY...... 67 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River viii

PHOTO 5: MORAČA MONASTERY WITH “SVETIGORA” WATERFALL...... 67

PHOTO 6: MORAČA MONASTERY - FRESCOS...... 67

PHOTO 7: KALUĐERSKI (MONKS) BRIDGE AT MORAČA...... 68

PHOTO 8: PRINCE DANILOV BRIDGE AT MRTIVICA...... 68

PHOTO 9: CAIRNS OF UNKNOWN AGE AT DUGI LAZ - MORAČA...... 69

PHOTO 10: KOSETINE - OLD FARM BUILDING OF UNKNOWN AGE...... 69

PHOTO 11: MIROCEVICI - EXAMPLE OF CULTURAL LANDSCAPE...... 69

PHOTO 12: MORAČA VALLEY...... 70 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River ix

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AEWA African-Eurasian Water bird Agreement BC Before Christ BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina BRCCF Balkans Regional Climate Change Forum CDM Clean Development Mechanisms CETI Centre for Eco-toxilogical Research - Montenegro CETMA Applied multidisciplinary research and advanced industrial engineering Centre

CH4 Methane CHP Combined Heat and Power Production CHR Cultural Heritage Report CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CITES Convention of International Trade in Endangered Species CO Carbon Monoxide DDZs Detailed Development Zones DSP Detailed Spatial Plan EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission EDS Energy Development Strategy EEP Emergency Evacuation Plan EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIB European Investment Bank EMS European Macro Seismic Scale EOI Expression of Interest EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPCG Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (Electric Power Company of Montenegro) EPCS Electric Power Company of Serbia ERP Emergency Response Plan EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Green House Gas GIS Geographic Information System GPS Global Positioning System GUP Urban Plan for Podgorica GWh Gigawatt Hours ha Hectare HMI Hydro-Meteorological Institute HPPs Hydroelectric Power Plants ICB Institutional Capacity Building IFC International Finance Corporation IHA International Hydropower Association IPA Important Plant Area IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IR Inception Report IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature KAP Kombinat Aluminijuma Podgorica km Kilometres km2 Square kilometres Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River x

KN/m2 Kilo Newton per square metre kV Kilo Volt l/sec Litres per second l/sec km2 Litres per second kilometre square – measure of specific runoff LSIEMP Lake Skadar Integrated Ecosystem Management Project m3 Cubic metres m3/sec Cubic metres per second m3/hr Cubic metres per hour MAFWR Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Water Resources Management masl Metres above Sea Level MCS Mercali-Cancani-Sieburg Scale MDK Maksimalno Dozvoljene Koncentracije ~Maximum Permissible Concentration ME Ministry of Economy (Montenegro) mg/kg Milligrams per kilogram Mil Million MNG Montenegro MoM Minutes of Meetings MONSTAT Montenegro Statistical Office MoU Memorandum of Understanding MSPE Ministry of Spatial Planning and Environment MW Megawatts NA Not Applicable NIKU Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NIVA Norwegian Institute for Water Research NSSD National Strategy for Sustainable Development NSP National Spatial Plan NVE Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate

NOx Nitrogen Oxide OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PAH Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PCBs Polychlorinated biphenyl PCDD Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin PCDF Polychlorinated Dibenzofurans PCT Polycyclohexylene Terephthalate PIU Project Implementation Unit PMU Project Monitoring Unit ppm Parts per million PPO Municipal Plans PPOV Podgorica City Wastewater Treatment Plant PRV Principle Representative Viewpoint QA Quality Assurance R2 Regression Coefficient SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SEE South Eastern Europe SEE/CCFAP South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan SEERECT South East Europe Regional Energy Community Treaty

SO2 Sulphur Dioxide SPEC Species of European Conservation Concern SPM Suspended Particulate Matter SPMD Semi Permeable Membrane Devices TOR Terms of Reference Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River xi

TPM Total Particulate Matter ug/kg Micro grams per kilogram UN United Nations UNECE United National Economic Commission for Europe UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation URL Uniform Resource Locator US United States USAID United States Development Assistance WB World Bank WFD Water Framework Directive WWF World Wildlife Fund $ Dollar € Euro # Number o “ Degrees - minutes oC Degrees centigrade % Percentage ‰ Per Thousand Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 1

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - (NON TECHNICAL SUMMARY) The COWI Consortium has been commissioned by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), who in turn have acted on behalf of Ministry of Spatial Planning and Environment in Montenegro to undertake a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the Detailed Spatial Plan for four multipurpose accumulations on the Morača River (DSP).

The principle objective of this SEA Report is to ensure sustainable development of the DSP whilst preserving the levels of protection of people’s health and the environment.

The SEA is prepared in full compliance of the newly established Montenegrin SEA Law, which in itself is closely aligned to the EU Directive 2001/42/EC. The structure of the SEA Report follows the requirements of Article 15 of the aforesaid law.

1.1 Outline of the Plan The Morača River upstream of Podgorica has long been considered to have potential for hydropower development and many investigations have been undertaken in the area since the 1950’s. Many project plans and up- dates have been elaborated, the most recent in the late 1990’s, but to date none of these plans have been realised.

The DSP has been developed by the Government of Montenegro and follows the guidance of the Energy De- velopment Strategy (EDS) up until 2025. The DSP proposes a cascade of four dams with associated hydropower generating plants (HPPs); the largest most upstream regulating reservoir at Andrijevo feeding progress- ively downstream to the run of river HPPs of Raslovici, Milunovici and Zlatica. The estimated time for construction has been estimated at 6 years and the costs have been recently calculated to be of the order of € 500- 550 million.

The overall installed capacity of the scheme is 238.4 MW with an estimated generation of about 700 GWh/year. The energy provided by Morača HPPs would assist Montenegro in becoming an important power exporter and eliminating its current energy import dependency. The DSP and the EDS are also closely aligned to European Union (EU) policy for environmental protection and conservation.

Associated with the DSP are a further 11 reservoirs in the upper catchment area that can have further potential for small scale hydropower generation. It must be stressed however, that these upper catchment reservoirs are only developed to a preliminary level and a decision still needs to be made regarding their construction. Fur- thermore, these 11 dams and power plants would be subjected to further scrutiny including a separate SEA before they were developed.

1.2 Existing Environmental Status The project area for the SEA comprises the middle Morača catchment area and its tributaries; which forms the area of the DSP. However, as the DSP could have downstream impacts, the SEA area has also included the remainder of the Morača catchment area as far as Skadar Lake and the outflow to the Adriatic Sea via the Bojana River. The SEA project area lies principally within the municipal districts of Kolasin and Podgorica and is shown in Figure 1-1.

The Morača River valley presently accommodates the main transport corridor for the Bar – Belgrade road. A new road connecting Podgorica to Belgrade (Bar-Bolijare) is also being constructed which will avoid the existing route through the Morača River valley. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 2

Source: ArcMap Spatial Data, DSP (adapted) and COWI Figure 1-1: Outline Map of the SEA Project Area

1.2.1 Environmental factors Montenegro has a very high biodiversity of ecosystems and is an important centre of biodiversity within Europe. Around 20% of the total flora is endemic or relict and also the fauna shows high level of endemism. Mrtvica and Mala Rijeka Canyons within the DSP area are proposed as Emerald sites due to presence of species and habitats of international importance. Skadar Lake; the largest in the Balkans; is even more important in terms of biodiversity and is designated as a Ramsar Site and National Park and proposed as an Emerald site.

The northern part of the SEA project area (DSP area) has forested land (~20km2) of quite poor value and limited agricultural land (~6km2). There are about 5km2 of bare rock surfaces of other infertile areas. Downstream Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 3

of the DSP area, agricultural land use prevails primarily located on the Zeta and Morača river plains south towards the shore of Skadar Lake.

Soils in the area are influenced by climate and underlying geology, relief and human habitation. Calciferous- dolomite dark soil and brown acid soil are the two most prevalent soil types in the area.

Geological features of note are limestone mountains, often with their attendant faulting, which are hard and slow to erode, and often persist as steep jagged escarpments, through which the Morača River has cut gorges and canyons cleft by the smaller rivers draining the higher slopes. Sedimentary rocks of Mesozoic and Caino- zoic age predominate, whilst igneous and metamorphic rocks occur as smaller outcrops. Earlier extensive research has assessed that the locations of the proposed HPPs as being in a moderately active seismic area (Zone VIII), but characterised by relatively low level of seismic hazards.

There are deposits of sand and gravel in the Morača River which are commercially extracted and some of this activity is not legal (unlicensed). There are also large quantities of industrial stone which could have use for the construction industry, but very little quarrying activity is presently undertaken.

The majority of the people living in the project area have piped water supplies, the remainder using more traditional supplies (springs, boreholes, dug wells). Very few irrigation systems are developed in the area.

Water quality in the upper and middle reaches of Morača River (the DSP area) is excellent until just upstream of Podgorica where it degrades due to human activity. Water quality further degrades downstream of the City wastewater treatment plant and also near the aluminium works (KAP).

Skadar Lake water quality is influenced by the inflow from the main tributaries (Morača is the main one within Montenegro), inflow from Karstic underground springs, exchange between sediments and overlying waters and the chemical exchange between waters and the extensive beds of aquatic macrophytes. In addition the outlet River Drim, may flow into the eastern parts of the lake during high flows.

Sediment and phosphorus inputs to the lake are rather high and could easily result in increased eutrophication and also growth of potentially toxic blue-green algae. However Skadar Lake quality remains in good condition thanks to the high refreshment rate of 2-3 times per year, but there are still possibilities of “stagnant corners” occurring near the Morača delta area. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have declined in recent years, due to mitigation measures implemented by KAP, and are therefore currently no cause for concern.

Monthly hydrological data are available from recording stations in Morača and Skadar Lake; but more frequent data are recommended for more accurate calculations of the water balance of this watershed. Further- more, very limited data have been obtained for the Drim River in Albania; an important component of the water balance for the basin.

Air Quality data is limited to the municipal centres of Kolasin and Podgorica, outside of the DSP area. How- ever in general over the DSP area, air quality can be considered to be very good, but in Podgorica it is affected by increasing concentrations of PAH which were connected to KAP, but also to increasing number of vehicles and more combustion of fossil fuels.

Climate data is generally considered to be within norms. Skadar Lake has a more uniform climate compared with the DSP area, which is subject to more extremes (due to topographic effects). Climate change cannot be accurately predicted in the project area due to the limited monitoring record. However, at a macro level, the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 4

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated that temperatures in Europe will rise from between 2.2ºC to 5.1ºC within the next 100 years.

A landscape and visual impact assessment has been performed and photomontage produced at the four HPP sites. The area around Morača Monastery is also an area of special historic cultural landscape and the resulting Andrijevo development will alter the landscape quite markedly (See Photo 1 and Photo 2).

Photo 1: Current view of Morača Monastery

Monastery

Photo 2: Photomontage of Morača Monastery with Reservoir Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 5

There are some archaeological sites in close proximity to the DSP reservoirs, but they are above the projected flood level of the reservoirs. Morača Monastery close to the Andrijevo reservoir is the most important cultural monument. The monastery and particularly its frescos have been affected by humidity due to lack of preventative maintenance in recent years. Duga Monastery is also close to the Zlatica reservoir, but is above the flood level. There are also a further 24 churches of lesser significance in the DSP area of which one will be affected by the Andrijevo reservoir. Two old bridges more than 150 years old will also be inundated by the An- drijevo reservoir.

1.2.2 Socio-Economic factors Population rates are declining and there is a marked migration of younger people away from the DSP area im- plying an increasing ageing population.

Employment is primarily connected to agricultural activities. Forestry is poorly developed and the potential for fishing and fish breeding have not been well developed in the area. The areas to be inundated comprise a mixture of thin forests and barren land, grasslands, and cultivated land. Most likely, ownership and compensation issues are complicated and will have to be investigated.

Education both at primary and secondary level are within the norms of national statistical data. Crime rates are also within national norms.

In the DSP area there is no significant industrial activities. However, downstream to Skadar Lake the main industrial activities occur around Podgorica, most notably KAP, which is currently in a state of semi closure.

1.3 Risk, Environmental Characteristics and Problem Areas Core risk factors important for the construction and operations of the HPPs are: i) earthquakes, ii) climate change, iii) natural changes in river flow regime and iv) cheaper energy alternatives. The area of risk due to potential impact of primary risk factors is:

• The immediate area of the DDZs • The entire area downstream of the HPPs • The area of Skadar Lake

Key problems associated with the HPPs are i) the dam construction, ii) inundation by the reservoirs, and iii) dam and reservoir management. Predicted impacts are associated with: biodiversity, hydrology, water quality, cultural heritage, geology/hydrogeology and landscape.

1.4 Environmental Protection Legislation A review of the key environmental protection legislation of relevance to the DSP for HPPs has been undertaken. Key international conventions of importance are Ramsar, Espoo and Kyoto Protocol.

At the European level they are as follows: • The SEA Directive - Directive 2001/42/EC • The EIA Directive - Council Directive 85/337/EEC • The Environmental Liability Directive - Directive 2004/35/EC • The Birds Directive - Council Directive 79/409/EEC • The Habitats Directive - Council Directive 92/43/EEC • The Water Framework Directive (WFD) - Directive 2000/60/EC Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 6

• EU Land Use Planning through various Directives and Regulations • EU Energy policy: in which Renewable Energy Road Map and Action Plan or renewable energies are important.

The following are a list of important Montenegrin policies of relevance to the DSP for HPPs: • The Constitution of Montenegro • The National Strategy for Sustainable Development • Energy Development Strategy of Montenegro by 2025 - White Book • Spatial Plan of Montenegro Until 2020 • Laws and Regulations relevant for the Strategic Environmental Assessment • The Law on Environment (2008) • The Law on Spatial Planning and Development • The Law on Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (2005) • The Law on Environmental Impact Assessment (2005) • Law on Nature Protection and Law on National Parks • The Law on Energy (2003) • The Water Law (2007) • Expropriation Law (Official Gazette of Montenegro no. 55/00, 12/02) regarding resettlement/ compensation regulations

1.5 Evaluation of impacts Impact identification and evaluation has been assessed using methodology described under Montenegrin SEA law, the EU SEA Directive and OECD principles. A summary of the advantages and disadvantages of the Morača HPPs is shown below in Table 1-1. Table 1-1: Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages of the 4 HPPs 4HPPs OPTION Topic Advantages Disadvantages • Current state of KAP semi-closure could eliminate • Compensation issues will be problematic. electricity deficit, hence providing more power for ex- • Increased production will lead to increased demand on port. services. • Would provide substantial income from power export. • Would reduce foreign exchange deficit. • Would reduce current power deficit. • Improve geo-political status in the region. • Economic Stimulate industrial production and other business opportunities. Factors • Stimulate the local economy. • More opportunity for tourism/amenities. • A strategic water supply is secured which will become increasingly important due to climate change. • Improved transport links. • Opportunities for investment. • Could provide catalyst for improved energy efficiency measures. Social • Provide short term and long term employment oppor- • Stress from fear of living below dams. tunities. Factors • Disturbance during construction. • Affected people will be properly compensated in terms • Loss of traditional lifestyles. of land and financial contributions. • Loss of land and housing • Reverse decline in migration. • Inundation of graves implies relocation. • Improved health care opportunities. • Increased demand on existing social services due to • Improved well being due to improved economy of the worker influx. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 7

4HPPs OPTION Topic Advantages Disadvantages area. • Opportunity for improved education. • Potential improvement in fabric of society. • All reservoirs would provide new habitats for wildlife. • Change in overall flow regime affects flora and fauna • New landscape of lakes created. downstream as well as upstream (reservoirs acquire lake- like characteristics). • Contribution of clean energy. • Conservation status of Skadar Lake as a site of interna- • Morača Monastery and the plateau it overlays will be tional importance (Ramsar site, IPA) can be threatened properly maintained and preserved for the future due to decline/loss of endemic species and habitats for • Opportunities for increase in archaeological know- migratory birds. • ledge due to necessary surveys. Daily peaking can affect flora and fauna downstream • Environmental • Opportunity to learn more about the flora and fauna of Threat of landslide (Djurdjevine). Factors the area due to necessary surveys. • Changes to Microclimate may affect cultural heritage. • Some downstream benefits from flow regulation such • Loss of landscape (especially historical landscape of as reduced risks from floods and improved water qual- Morača Monastery). ity (during summer). • Loss of locally important bridges (Danilov and Kaludjer- • Possible improvements to environment for tourism ski). (water quality). • Improved water supply for irrigation practices in summertime

The evaluation of impacts of the 11 dams and associated power plants in the upper catchment has not been considered as too few details exist in the DSP and a decision for their construction has still not been made. Notwithstanding, these areas would be the subject of more detailed feasibility studies and a separate SEA would be prepared if they were to be developed.

1.6 Mitigation measures A Mitigation Plan has been prepared for socio-economic and environmental issues during the pre-construction, construction and operational phases of the development. Principal mitigation measures associated with this plan include the following:

Preconstruction Phase • Careful planning and scheduling of future construction works • Early provision of compensation arrangements for affected citizens • Set up and operation of effective public awareness campaign • Establishment of network of seismic stations for continuous monitoring • Appropriate detailed surveys to mitigate against possible loss of biodiversity and cultural heritage. • Undertake further groundwater surveys in permeable zones affected by reservoir.

Construction Phase • Strict adherence to health and safety rules to prevent accidents and detrimental health effects • Continued running of public awareness campaign • Prioritisation given to employment of local labour force • Appropriate clearance of all shrubs and trees from the inundated zones making full use of timber • Develop nursery for indigenous plants to ensure maturity available after construction. • Set up emergency response plan practices and installation of seismic monitoring network. • Protect non construction areas by stripping top soil for replacement post construction. • Preventative maintenance, rehabilitation and foundation/plateau strengthening measures at Morača Mon- astery • Provide waste water drainage, safe disposal of wastes and livestock protection. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 8

• Re-interment of affected burial sites with full discretion and respect.

Completion/Operation Phase • Maximise economic benefits from dam function • Appropriate management of water discharge flow regimes from dams, internally – i.e. for Morača HPPs), but also in conjunction with Albanian HPPs on the Drim River to mitigate against any potential affects to Skadar Lake. • Assist methods of fish migration as much as possible and ensure that there is adequate minimum flow downstream at all times. • Minimise sedimentation of reservoirs and wear of turbines by considering flood bypass channels/tunnels, implementation of dredging routines and construction of weirs in the upper catchment. • Re-cultivation/replanting of exposed areas using indigenous species. • Reducing visual impacts by strategic planting in affected areas • Continued preventative maintenance of Morača Monastery

1.7 Alternatives The DSP has not put forward any alternatives to the current plan. However, in accordance with the SEA Law the “Do Nothing Option” needs to be considered. The advantages and disadvantages of the Do Nothing Op- tion are shown in Table 1-2 below.

Table 1-2: Summary of Advantages and Disadvantages of the Do Nothing Option DO NOTHING OPTION Topic Advantages Disadvantages • Current state of KAP semi-closure could eliminate • Increased reliance on imported power. electricity deficit. • Potential increase in power tariffs. • Lack of power options could stimulate Govern- • Loss of geo-political status. ment to act on reducing on wastage and improving Economic efficiency of existing energy installations. • Potential fall in GDP. Factors • Loss in business and investor confidence. • Increased unemployment in the region. • Lower industrial productivity by black outs.

• Traditional lifestyles of people living in Morača • Health affect on most vulnerable citizens due to tariff valley would remain. increases. • Stress of dam failure from natural catastrophe is • Population in the area will continue to decline. eliminated. • Average age of population will continue to increase. • The area would become more pleasant and safer • Passive, demotivated population due to limited success Social to live in as transport redirected to Bar – Boljare of initiatives for new businesses and self-employment road; • Factors Potential increases in crime and anti social behaviour • Tourism based on outdoor activities could devel- as economic conditions decline. op. • Potential increase in health related disorders such as depression and alcoholism.

Environmental • Existing habitats for flora and fauna are preserved. • Drop in tourism due to inaccessibility and new routing • of Bar Boljare Road. Factors Integrity of the Morača landscape and the canyon are preserved. • Risk of increased pollution and land degradation due • Stress from development and increased tourism is to abandonment of industry due to poor power situ- diminished. ations. • Environmental effects of through transport would • Increased power costs stimulate illegal forestry thereby be reduced due to through transport redirected to increasing risks of erosion and landslides. Bar – Boljare road. • Climate change affecting base flow of river which may Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 9

lead to natural loss of biodiversity.

1.8 Transboundary impacts Montenegro has a good relationship with Albania and has been in dialogue from the 1990’s on issues related to sustainable development of Skadar Lake. Transboundary impacts from the Morača HPPs may affect Al- bania principally due to Skadar Lake being a transboundary entity.

Montenegro will therefore enter into dialogue with Albania regarding the Project in accordance with the SEA Law and international standards and conventions.

1.9 Environmental Monitoring A monitoring plan for stakeholder consultation has been provided outlining broad activities and responsibilities for pre-construction, construction and operation phases. This plan can be further adapted during the more detailed EIA stage for the DSP development. It is important that there is agreement between stakeholders on a predefined response plan, course of action and timeframe for such events.

1.10 Conclusions The general synopsis is that the DSP for 4 HPPs on the Morača River will provide beneficial effects to the whole of Montenegro, through provision of hydropower and by reducing import dependence. Opportunities exist for stimulating the local area and reversing the population decline that has been recently experienced in the region. However, the DSP could also provide some adverse effects mostly to the rare flora and fauna within the region; the extent of which cannot be fully assessed, due to the poor availability of data; hence further research is needed prior to commencement of construction activities.

A further 11 other reservoirs in the upper catchments associated with small scale hydropower plants are also included in the DSP, but these are in a preliminary state and a decision on their construction has yet to be made. Furthermore, these 11 reservoirs would be subject to substantially more investigation work and another SEA before they could be developed further.

Limited information presently exists on the proposed operation of the dams. However, if daily peaking operations are practiced it is extremely important to maintain a base flow (minimum flow) in the Morača River generally equivalent to 10% of the mean average flow. This should be researched in more detail during the preparation of the EIA.

1.10.1 Environmental Issues Biodiversity • There is a high biodiversity within the Morača river valley and its tributaries (especially Mrtvica and Mala Rijeka) as well as in Skadar Lake. The DSP is likely to have an effect on endemic species and due to the international importance of Skadar Lake consultation on potential threats and acceptable levels of biodiversity loss have to be conducted in compliance to international standards and agreements (i.e. Ramsar, Espoo conventions) during the preparatory phase in order that any necessary mitigation measures can be included in the tender/final design. • Change in lake levels could impact upon the life cycle of fish and migratory bird nesting and further research needs to be undertaken on this subject prior to the construction. • It is very important to include provision for fish ladders within the 3 lower dams of the Morača River to allow fish migration and if possible for Andrijevo dam. Provision for such installations should be included in the future tender documents for dam construction. For Andrijevo dam, the latest developments in Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 10

methods and techniques for fish migration through large dams should be followed closely during the entire project planning phase and if any of them is feasible they should be integrated into the design. • The fluctuation in inflow of water into Skadar Lake has to be ascertained in order to preserve the wetland habitats and their ecological functions and hence this analysis needs to be undertaken during the more detailed EIA. .

Water Quality • Lake Skadar nutrient levels and algae conditions are of medium levels. However, the nutrient inputs to the lake are high and eutrophication (stagnation) could occur if it was not for the large throughflow of water. In addition, other factors may be important, including high sediment inputs during spring, which reduce the visibility and therefore also the light conditions in the lake water, inhibiting algae growth in the first part of the summer; • In the summertime, the water quality of the Morača River may improve due to the proposed regulation, since the increased water flow will dilute the pollutants. Similarly, in Lake Skadar, the throughflow of the lake may increase in the critical growing season and this may reduce the risk of algae blooms. • The other types of pollution in this catchment area, include heavy metals and toxic substances from industry are not believed to be either improved or worsened by the planned HPPs; the water from the Mor- ača River catchment in the area of the DSP being of excellent quality.

Hydrology • The Upper Morača, where the hydropower plants are planned, contributes to about 32% of the total flow in Morača River and 21 % of the total flow into Skadar Lake. • The combined volume of all four reservoirs is about million 340 m3 which is less than half of the volume of water passing by the hydrological station in Pernica (near Andrijevo). • It will be important to maintain a minimum flow in the river. • The annual variations in riverine water discharges are rather large, with high water discharges during winter and low in summer. Similarly, the water levels in Lake Skadar vary considerable, and this sustains a wetland area of about 150 km2. • It is likely that the flow in the Bojana and Drim River systems is more important to the water level fluctuations in Skadar Lake than the flow in Morača River, but the latter flow is nevertheless important. • A better understanding of the hydrology of the entire water system needs to be known prior to construction of the dams. All data should be made available by relevant authorities with no exception. This hydrological research needs to be done in order to assess the importance of the different inflow systems (tributaries, groundwater, outlet river) on the lake water levels. This information will then be incorporated in the EIA which needs to be undertaken at the time of the detailed design. • If the Investor/Concessionaire will operate the dams with daily peaking (low flow during nights and high flows during daytime), higher stress on the river biology can be expected. Limitations on such practices should be assessed once more detailed information on operational routines has been provided and included in the EIA. • Reduced flow in winter may help decrease the highest floods and therefore alleviate risk of damage.

Geological Conditions and Seismic • The Morača dams lie within Seismic Zone VIII and risk of higher earthquake magnitude rises in a southerly direction downstream. A full seismic assessment including provision of seismic monitoring equipment for monitoring is an important requirement and this should be undertaken prior to construction, during construction and during operational phases. • The zone of potential landslide near Djurdjevine in the Andrijevo zone has been subject of limited geotechnical investigations in the past. A tender procedure by ME and IFC for a geotechnical investigation is underway, with the intention to finish the investigation before completing the evaluation of bids for construction of the Morača HPPs. In this cannot be achieved then investigation works will be performed by Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 11

the Investor/Concessionaire.Water tightness within the storage basins around the 4HPPs and in particular Zlatica and Milunovici dams should be further assessed prior to construction.

Climate Change • Although not conclusive, climate change analysis indicates that temperatures may have risen slightly (by less than 0.5 °C) in the last 10-15 years, however changes in rainfall (either a reduction or increase) are not conclusive. Longer duration climate change predictions are more dramatic with a rise in temperatures of between 2 and 5°C forecast over the next 100 years.

Material Assets • Little information on the loss of material assets is provided in the DSP, especially the 11 dams in the upper catchment. • The DSP does not specify which reservoirs are to be used for drinking water supply in the light of their multipurpose function, nor does it provide detail of the number of water supplies that will be affected. Fur- ther details on this issue should be specified during final design.

Air Quality and Traffic • Air Quality in the DSP area remains good and will improve in general as the Morača Valley will be affected by the new Bar - Boljare road; the routing taking traffic away from Morača Monastery. Monitoring of air quality in the area around the proposed dams should commence prior to construction to ascertain baseline values for the sites and then continued throughout the construction and operational stages of the development.

Cultural Heritage and Cultural Monuments • There are indications of pre-historic sites within the Morača Valley that should be investigated prior to inundation; preferably during the pre-construction stage so that any mitigation measures can be included in the final design. • Nothing is provided in the DSP on the proposed transfer of 150 grave sites that will be inundated, or how this will be undertaken and who will be responsible. Such information needs to be provided preferably at the detailed design stage to allow time for implementation. • Two footbridges more than 150 years old will be lost due to the inundation from the Andrijevo reservoir as well as a church and two primary schools, but no mention is made in the DSP about how this investigat- ive work around these sites will be carried out. • Frescos at the Morača Monastery in recent times have suffered considerable degradation from increased humidity due to a lack of preventative maintenance. A more detailed analysis of the situation is necessary and work on the microclimate together with other relevant studies should be commissioned during the pre- construction and construction of the Morača HPPs.

Landscape • The resulting reservoirs (especially Andrijevo and Zlatica) will have the greatest effect on landscape. A landscape and visual impact assessment has been carried out and with the exception of Andrijevo, visual impacts of the dams are not considered to be too substantial and the resulting reservoirs could improve the landscape and amenity value of the area.

1.10.2 Socio Economic Issues Settlements, Population and Health • Demographics and health statistics indicate a generally declining and ageing population. • Life expectancy within the project area is similar to other parts of Montenegro. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 12

• Some people will have to move out of the areas that are to be inundated, many of them elderly and special care for their mental well being must be considered. A plan of action needs to be prepared prior to the construction stage.

Employment and Education • Employment in the DSP Project area is predominantly associated with agriculture and forestry. • GDP in the Morača valley is low compared with other parts of Montenegro whilst unemployment rates remain relatively high. • The Project will provide substantial job opportunities; from the dam constructions, and also from spin off employment due to more water availability for irrigation and also increased activity within the tourism sector. • The statement in the DSP that 4,000 jobs will be created in the tourism sector needs further substantiation prior to project commencement. • Livelihood of fishermen in Skadar Lake could be affected by changes in the lake levels and further research needs to be undertaken to evaluate this issue.

Industry (recreation, tourism etc) • Further strengthening of institutional capacity within existing stakeholder organisations will be needed as a result of the DSP. A training needs and institutional capacity assessment should be undertaken prior to construction. • The DSP suggestion that Zlatica can be used for water supply for Podgorica as well as for recreation need to be substantiated. Motor boats, Jet skis etc, have a danger of oil spillages which could create problems for drinking water use. • Oscillations in the water level of Andrijevo dam will make it difficult to implement tourism /recreational activities.

1.11 Recommendations The following recommendations are provided.

1.11.1 General • The mitigation and monitoring programs should be used as a template for more detailed documentation that will be required when the EIAs are prepared for the hydropower projects which should be in parallel with the final design for the dams. • The appropriate authority in Albania should be contacted prior to tendering to discuss the transboundary issues related to the Morača HPPs and consideration given to a seminar/conference to discuss water management and regulation issues throughout the complete Skadar Lake basin.

1.11.2 Environmental, geological and hydrological • “The inundation of substantial areas of the Morača valley could imply a permanent loss of notable flora and fauna and potential sites of cultural heritage or archaeological interest. Detailed follow up surveys in inundated areas are recommended during the detailed design period so that any proposed mitigation measures resulting from the surveys can be handled effectively.”More research is needed for better understanding of the dynamics of water level changes and ecology (birds, fish, macrophytes, etc.) in Skadar Lake, including the consequences of reduced water level variations on the extent of wetland areas; • A seismic monitoring system needs to be established prior to inundation as well as a network of accelerat- or instruments installed into the new facilities for monitoring of dynamic reactions of dams in the event of an earthquake. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 13

• Measures to resolve the impact of increased humidity on frescos of the Morača Monastery should be implemented prior to or during construction and monitoring continued throughout the operational phase. • Detailed modelling of hydrological issues in the Morača catchment needs to be undertaken in time to feed into the EIA which should be undertaken in conjunction with the final design. This should include rivers, groundwater and the lake and include all data sources including the recent World Bank (GEF) Project initiative. • It is recommended to improve the transboundary availability of existing hydrological data, e.g. by considering installation of a dynamic online monitoring system during the construction phase to get a more accurate baseline condition and thereafter during the operational phase. • Hydrological monitoring stations should be upgraded and samples of suspended sediments collected at the proposed sites for dam inlet and outlet before, during and after the building of the dams. Monitoring of minimum flow on the Morača River is a necessity during the construction and post construction/operational periods of the Morača HPPs. • Implementation of more sewage treatment plants should be given priority in the entire region, with special focus on the largest cities; this should preferably be implemented in parallel with the construction of the Morača HPPs.

1.11.3 Socio Economic • Consideration for a further analysis on the impact on fishing in Skadar Lake should be undertaken and linked to the WB/GEF initiative mentioned above. • Health services should be strengthened and improved in the light of the increase of people working in the area (HPPs, tourism, recreations etc). In addition such improvement should be undertaken in the light of resettlement. These improvements should take place during the construction phase of the project. • It should be ensured that resettlement is undertaken in a responsible manner and according to legislation with a nominated contact point in Government provided. This should be implemented during the pre-construction/construction phase. • Compensation for loss of housing and land needs to be provided in kind. Furthermore, compensation for loss of income from fishing, gravel extraction etc., retraining opportunities and support for alternative sources of income needs consideration prior to construction of the project. • A capacity building survey and training needs assessment should be implemented within the stakeholder institutions prior to construction to ensure that resettlement and compensation issues are properly handled. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 14

PART 1 – ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING AND CONTEXT

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) should contain all data describing and assessing the potential significant impacts on the environment that could be caused by the implementation of the Detailed Spatial Plan for four Multipurpose Accumulations on the Morača River (DSP). Part 1 of this SEA therefore contains:

• Chapter 2 below; which sets out the contents and main objectives of the DSP and the relation with other plans and programmes; hence complying with Article 15, clause 1 of the SEA Law for Montenegro. Chapter 2 also provides the background and the terms of reference for the SEA; the scope of work, and rationale (principle reasons for the development of the project) and an outline of the SEA Project Area. • Chapter 3 provides a description of the existing environmental status and baseline condition of the project area and its possible development in the event that the DSP are not realised (i.e. compliance with Montenegrin Law Article 15, clause 2). • Chapter 4 identifies the areas that are likely to be affected by significant risk and the characteristics of the environment in such areas (i.e. compliance with Montenegrin Law Article 15, clause 3). The Chapter also provides a more detailed description of the existing environmental problems associated with the DSP and in particular those relating to areas of specific environmental significance (i.e. compliance with Montenegrin Law Article 15, clause 3). • Chapter 5 looks at the general and specific objectives of environmental protection set either at the national or at the international level which are of relevance for the DSP and how these are taken into consideration (i.e. compliance with Montenegrin Law Article 15, clause 3). This involves an analysis of the existing legislative planning framework in relation to environmental protection laws and policies.

2 OUTLINE OF DSP AND SEA 2.1 The Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River A decision on the preparation of the DSP for the adoption of four hydropower projects (HPPs) on the Morača River was announced on 23rd October 2008. The DSP forms part of the Energy Development Strategy (EDS) and Action Plan for Montenegro covering the period up to 2025. The EDS includes a move toward reduction of energy import dependence, primarily through the creation of stable conditions for investments in research /exploration and construction of new energy facilities (especially on the basis of already explored sites with unused hydropower-potential), as well as investments in other energy infrastructure (i.e. wind, biomass and solar power) and refurbishment and rehabilitation of existing thermal and HPP facilities at Piva and Perucica. The EDS and the DSP are closely aligned to European Union (EU) policy; a primary aim of Montenegro being integration and accession to the EU.

The DSP has been prepared in Montenegrin by the Company URBI d.o.o. based in Podgorica and is provided in three sections;

i) an Executive Summary, ii) Part A- which is an evaluation of the existing state of physical planning within the area, and iii) Part B – Projection and Conceptual Development of Spatial Planning. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 15

The canyon on the Morača River which ends just north of Podgorica has been surveyed in the past and found to have substantial potential for hydropower development. A number of preliminary design studies were undertaken in the late 1980’s (i.e. Elektroprojekt of Ljubljana and Energoprojekt of Belgrade) and subsequently updated in 1998. The outcome of these studies has concluded that there are four potential sites for hydropower development in the form of a cascade. These are in progressive order downstream; HPP Andrijevo, HPP Raslovici, HPP Milunovici and HPP Zlatica that if developed would enable the average annual production of approximately 700 GWh (gigawatt hours) of electrical energy to be generated, thus providing a much needed strategic reserve; dispensing with the need for electricity import dependence and also providing a potential future source of energy for export.

The DSP needs to be undertaken in harmony with the needs of existing settlements, existing infrastructure, tourism, recreation etc. It is also very clear that the proposed hydropower project will have some impact on the environment and hence the SEA has been prepared in parallel with the DSP. The locations of the four proposed HPPs lying within the middle section of the Morača River are shown on Figure 2-2 and a longitudinal profile of the Morača River is shown in Figure 2-3.

Source: Montenegro ME July 2008 Figure 2-2: Location Map of the proposed four HPPs on the Morača River. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 16

Source: Montenegro ME July 2008 Figure 2-3: Longitudinal Profile of the HPPs on the Morača River

2.1.1 Objectives of the DSP The principal objective of the DSP is to provide a clear vision and “road map” on the future development of the Morača project area including areas of special importance for construction of infrastructure facilities necessary for the further improvement of local communities, as well as the whole of Montenegro. The DSP will also be used to attract international investment from international financial institutions.

The DSP states that production of electricity using hydropower as a “renewable” form of energy is particularly important considering the adopted development strategy of Montenegro as an “Ecological State”. The most important facilities for the use of hydropower are the water reservoirs, without which the potential for hydropower generation would not be possible.

The DSP puts forward the case that building of the appropriate reservoirs will offset the present inequalities in the water flow on the Morača River (which currently experience large seasonal flow variations) and argues that this is a common interest, for companies supplying electricity (i.e. Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG)), and those involved with integrated water supply in Montenegro that provide water to Podgorica.

The aim of the DSP therefore is to create the preferred conditions for the construction of reservoirs through the development of relevant studies, analytical and planning documentation, which will be integral to consider and analyze all elements of purpose and organization of the use of space, in order to protect and encourage the further development of this area.

In addition, the DSP should be used to determine the optimal deployment of the population in the area of influence of future reservoirs, by using economic, technical, technological and functional space criteria and the principles of sustainable development. More specifically, the DSP identifies two groups of goals which are divided into long term and short term: Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 17

Long-term goals • Establishment of a basis for the organization of space along the river Morača for multipurpose use of natural resources, such as the production of electricity from renewable sources, the establishment of water supplies, tourism and recreational amenities, fishing, etc.; • Focusing the use of domestic energy sources and reducing the degree of electricity import dependence, to be undertaken in parallel with the use of other renewable energy sources; • Allowing for future reservation of space for tourism, services, housing and other development; • Production of clean energy, which contributes to the global fight against climate change and reducing the pollution of the planet; • Ensuring sufficient capacity to supply electricity consumers in Montenegro, in the present and future; and • Creating opportunities for foreign and domestic capital investment.

Short-term goals • Allowing involvement and creation of local capacity building to prepare for design, construction and exploitation facilities; • Providing areas in the nearby vicinity of Podgorica, for tourism, recreation, fishing, and further urban development; • Creating improved strategic water supplies for human consumption and irrigation areas to enable long term security due to threat of global climate change (i.e. higher preponderance of droughts); • Harmonization of existing and planned surface infrastructure and systems in the immediate area; • Production of electrical energy in a sustainable way; • Initiation of further development of many activities: transportation, industry, tourism, trade, etc, • Improving the stability and availability of the power supply system; and • Improving the quality of life.

2.1.2 DSP Relationship with other plans and programs The DSP for Morača HPPs has taken into consideration the following national and municipal level documentation:

National Level i) National Spatial Plan for Montenegro – detailing all developments up until year 2020. ii) The Energy Development Strategy for Montenegro until the year 2025 iii) Tourism Development Strategy iv) The Water Resources Management Master Plan v) Numerous EPCG Planning Documents vi) Planning documents (including SEA) for the Bar – Bolijare road passing through the municipalities of Bar, Podgorica, Cetinje, Crikvenica, Kolasin, Andrijevica, Berane and Bijelo Polje.

Municipality Level i) Spatial Plan of the Municipality of Podgorica (PPO) (adopted in 1990) with the following amendments: • ID PPO – Road Corridor Bozaj-Podgorica, 2001; • ID PPO - Beglake, Zeta, 2003; • ID PPO - Donji Milješ , 2003; • ID PPO - Corridor along the road to Danilovgrad, 2003; • ID PPO - Sanitary landfill with recycling centre, 2004; ii) The urban Plan for Podgorica. (GUP) 1990, with a number of changes and amendments to the GUP. iii) Spatial Plan of the municipality of Kolasin (PPO), adopted in 1988. iv) The Urban Plan of the municipality of Kolasin, adopted in 1987. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 18

2.1.3 Boundaries and Scope of the DSP The boundaries of the DSP comprise the catchment area of the Morača River, which is to be developed, and which lies between lines of longitude 16°45¨ and 17°15¨ East, and lines of latitude 42°30¨ and 43°00¨ North. The area of the DSP occupies the middle reaches of the Morača River upstream from Podgorica. After Project commencement, the area was expanded to include all land areas in the upper catchment of the Morača River basin. Thus, the DSP falls within the affected municipalities of Podgorica and Kolasin and districts are listed in Table 2-3. Table 2-3: DSP Affected Districts within Podgorica and Kolasin Municipalities PODGORICA MUNICIPALITY KOLASIN MUNICIPALITY Podgorica Lijeva Rijeka Kolasin Ostreci Bezjovo Lijesta Bare Okca Gora Bioce Lopate Boliji Petrova Raven Blizna Lutovo Valijeduboko Poznja Bolesestra Momce Visnje Ravni Brskut Mrke Viahovici Raicevina Vijedenje Pelev Brijeg Vrujica Rasko Vilac Prisoja Gornja Rovca Bulatovici Redice Gornje Stravce Raci Dragovica Polje Seia Grbido Rijeka Piperska Durdevina Sreteska Gora Donje Stravce Seostica Jasenova Starce Duga Slacko Kos Trnovica Duske Stupovi Lijesnje Ulica Zagreda Trmanje Ljeviste Cerovice Zaugao Tuzi Ljevorecke Ljuta Crkvine Kiselica Ubalac Morača Monastery Klopot Ubli Medurijecje Kosor Cvilin Mioska Krzanja Mrtvo Duboko Source: DSP (adapted) 2.1.4 Detailed Development Zones The Detailed Development Zones (DDZs) show the existing state of cadastral land use as taken from the Real Estate Agency compared with that planned for the DSP. The “planned state” demarcates areas for new hydropower installation and ancillary works, expanded demarcated areas for settlement, vegetation, roads, cemeteries etc. The locations of the DDZs within the DSP area are shown on the following Figure 2-4.

2.1.5 Review of the Proposed Hydropower Sites This section describes the main features of the four HPPs that are planned at Andrijevo, Raslovici, Milunovici and Zlatica. Details of the vital statistics for the four HPP are shown in Table 2-4 below. Table 2-4: Vital Statistics for the HPPs on the Morača River

Distance in Volume Operating Surface Dam kilometres in millions m3 Installed Annual Hydro Power Type of reservoir Area Height Capacity Prodn Project Site To Lake To Total Usable elevation inundated Dam (metres) 2 (MW) (GWh) Skadar Podgorica Reservoir Reservoir (masl) (km ) Concrete Andrijevo 150 62.7 32 304 249 285 8.9 127.4 318.6 arch Concrete Raslovici 59 54.8 24 11.3 7.8 155 0.63 37 106.9 gravity Concrete Milunovici 61.8 47.0 16 9.9 6.8 119 1.41 37 117.2 gravity Concrete Zlatica 63.5 36.2 8 16 13 81 na 37 151 gravity Source: Montenegro ME July 2008 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 19

Source: DSP (adapted) Figure 2-4: Location of DDZs within the DSP Area

HPP Andrijevo The HPP Andrijevo reservoir is the first and principle dam in the cascade of HPPs planned on the Morača River and represents the start of the middle reaches of the Morača River. The site of the proposed dam wall is Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 20

located 62.7km upstream on the Morača River (measured from the mouth at Skadar Lake) and about 32kms from central Podgorica. The Andrijevo dam site is located within a very steeply incised canyon with almost vertical walls. The geographic coordinates of the dam site are: 42o 30 '05 ¨ N and 19o 22' 25 ¨ E. The resulting reservoir lies within the jurisdiction of the Municipality of Kolasin.

The proposed height of the Andrijevo dam is 150 metres and this will provide a reservoir with an operational level of 285masl. The reservoir when full, would store about 304 m3 million of water of which 249m3 million would be usable for electricity generating purposes.

The surface area that would be flooded by the effect of the Andrijevo dam has been estimated to be 8.9 km2. Out of this area some 1.4km2 are being cultivated; grassland areas cover 2.5km2 and the remaining areas are comprised of thin forests and barren land. There are no industrial activities in the affected area.

Rural settlements are scattered in nature and at the time of the preparation of the technical documentation for the Morača HPPs (1987) there were 90 households with 310 people that would be affected by the flooding and would need to be resettled.

Furthermore, the main road from Podgorica to Belgrade runs through the Morača valley at this point and this would need to be re-routed. It is estimated that some 14.5kms of new road will have to be constructed from the site downstream of the Andrijevo dam to upstream of the Morača Monastery.

The Andrijevo reservoir would extend for some 2km north from the dam wall within a steeply incised canyon like valley varying in width between 200-500 metres. This canyon is cut into the mountain massif called Platije which have peaks that reach 1,042 metres in height. Further to the north the tributaries of Sjevernica, Melještak and Mrtvica join the river Morača creating a three branched reservoir. The width of the valley widens at this point to between 500-2,000 metres and the side slopes are less severe. About 3 kms north from the dam wall the reservoir creates an island near the settlement of Bulje. The longest branch of the reservoir extends for about 14.5kms upstream from Andrijevo dam past the Morača Monastery where the river becomes more incised again with steep slopes and a narrower width of 200metres.

Importantly, the historic 13th century monastery at Morača would not be directly affected by the resulting flooding.1 There is however concern about changes to the microclimate around the monastery, principally the raising of humidity levels due to the proximity of the reservoir and this may cause damage to the frescos at the Monastery. Lack of preventative maintenance at the Monastery has also damaged the frescos in recent times. The plateau surrounding the monastery as well as the foundations may also need to be strengthened as a result of the inundation.

HPP Raslovici The HPP Raslovici reservoir is the second in the cascade series of reservoirs and hydro power plants on Mor- ača. The reservoir is located between the village of Raslovici; the location of the dam profile; upstream as far as the Andrijevo dam. The proposed dam wall for Raslovici is located 54.8km upstream on the Morača River (measured from the mouth at Skadar Lake) and about 24kms from central Podgorica. The Raslovici reservoir extends upstream as far as Raslovici village (which is the site for the profile of the next upstream dam HPP Raslovici). The geographic coordinates of the dam are: 42o 37 '05 ¨ N and 19o 22' 25 ¨ E. The reservoir is aligned in a broadly North-South direction and has a length of about 8 km. The width of the reservoir is essentially consistent throughout the whole of its length and it ranges between 300-400 m and follows the line of the

1 Due to importance of the Morača monastery the most favourable solution in terms of energy production was abandoned – This would have involved HPP Andrijevo with a normal operating reservoir that would have required relocation of the Monastery. An alternative was proposed with a normal operating level of reservoir of 285masl. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 21

valley. The reservoir is located within the canyon section with fairly steep sides but not as sheer as the An- drijevo site.

The reservoir falls within the municipalities of both Kolasin and Podgorica. The proposed reservoir operating level will be 155 masl and the dam height when constructed will be 59m providing a total storage volume of 11.3m3 million of which 7.8 m3 million would be useable. The total area to be flooded would be 0.63km2 which includes about 0.02km2of cultivated land, 0.31km2 of grassland and about 0.3km2 comprising forest and barren land.

No settlements lie within the affected reservoir zone so no resettlement will be required and there is also no industrial activity, but there will be a need to reroute about 1 kilometres of the existing Podgorica – Belgrade road.

HPP Milunovici The HPP Millunovici reservoir is the third in the cascade series of reservoirs and hydro power plants on Mor- ača. The proposed dam wall is located 47.0km upstream on the Morača River (measured from the mouth at Skadar Lake). The Millunovici reservoir is located between Millunovici Village; the site of the dam profile; and Raslovici Village; the site for the profile of the next upstream dam HPP Raslovici. The geographic coordinates of the dam are: 42o 33 '50 ¨ N and 19o 20' 35 ¨ E. The reservoir is aligned in a broadly Northeast- Southwest direction and has a length of about 8 km. The width of the reservoir is essentially consistent throughout at about 200 m and follows the line of the valley staying within the canyon part of the river section.

The reservoir operating level will be 119 masl and the dam height when constructed will be 61.8m with a total storage volume of 9.9m3 million of which 6.8million m3 would be useable. The total area to be flooded would be 1.41km2 of which 0.32km2 are cultivated land, 0.11km2are grassland and the remainder comprising thin forest and barren land.

The reservoir for HPP Milunovici would affect 20 households with 45 inhabitants (1987 estimate that needs to be updated). There are no industrial activities in the affected area.

HPP Zlatica The HPP Zlatica reservoir is the fourth and most downstream in the cascade series of reservoirs and hydro power plants on Morača and also acts a compensating basin for the upstream power plants. The proposed dam wall is located 36.2km upstream on the Morača River (measured from the mouth at Skadar Lake) or about 8km from the centre of Podgorica. The reservoir extends from the site for the dam profile at Zlatica near the settlement of Bioce upstream as far as Milunovići village (which is the site for the profile of the next upstream dam HPP Milunovići). The geographic coordinates of the dam are: 42o 30 '20 ¨ N and 19o 20' 10 ¨ E.

The reservoir is aligned in a broadly North-South direction and has a length of about 11 km. The proposed reservoir has one branch due to the confluence of the River Mala Rijeka which joins the Morača River upstream of Bioce. The width of the reservoir is essentially consistent at about 200 m and follows the line of the valley. The reservoir lies with the incised part of the canyon cut within a gravelly terrace. The reservoir normal operating level will be 81masl and a total reservoir volume of 16 m3 million will be created of which 13 m3 million are usable. The area of potential inundation has experienced much urbanisation in recent years and a length of 3.5kms of the existing main road linking Podgorica with Belgrade would need to be rerouted to make way for the dam development and the reservoir.

The resulting reservoir for HPP Zlatica would also provide a strategic water supply for Podgorica. The area also exhibits a groundwater “sink” characteristic as water is leaking into groundwater at this location. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 22

2.1.6 Required Preparatory Works for the HPPs

Andrijevo HPP is the principle dam in the Morača cascade and the estimated time for construction has been set at about 5 years. Work will involve construction of upstream and downstream coffer dams and river diver- sions to allow work to continue on the main arch dam. Existing road tunnels carrying the Podgorica – Bel- grade road at this site will be closed and sealed. A new route for the road will be made above the dam crest level.

Rock materials excavated from the site of the proposed dam site at Andrijevo will be used as levees to strengthen the embankments at Morača Monastery.

The quarry for crushed aggregate sources required for cement production for the dam will be sited about 700 metres upstream from the Andrijevo dam profile on a small plateau of the east bank of the Morača River. Transport to the cement plant will be by means of a concrete road set into a tunnel for a length of 650 metres. Aggregate production capacity is estimated at 80m3/hr.

Temporary worker village housing for Andrijevo, Raslovici and Milunovici will be provided on a level plateau about 0.5 km downstream from the site of the Milunovici dam site. This is in a location called Mravinje. Tem- porary worker housing for Zlatica will be located 800m downstream from the dam site on the west bank at Bregu. The commercial site will be organised adjacent to the dam site and will include workshop, parking spaces, fuel storage, landfill construction materials and the central concrete factory. In the immediate vicinity of this area will be the electricity sub-station, compressor station etc.

The DSP states that landfill materials from the Zlatica site will be disposed off 2.5 km upstream from the dam site that will fall within the area of the future reservoir. This raises potential questions on contamination of the water in the reservoir from such landfill materials.

2.1.7 Roads

New Road – (Motorway) - Bar - Boljare, The total length of this proposed motorway is about 164km. A 29km section passes through the area of the DSP; between Smokovac to Mateševo. This route will pass through a series of tunnels and open cut sections and includes the construction of a major viaduct taking the road across the Morača River near Bioce.

A number of motorway interchanges are planned within the area including Bioče, Pelevom Brijegu to Lijevoj Rijeci and Mateševa, and: Pelev Brijeg to Duške which all integrate with the existing transport network of Montenegro

The Main Road Podgorica – Kolasin, Regional and local Roads

The following roads within the area of the DSP are earmarked for improvement/replacement

i) Zlatica dam - 3km + 452.00metres to be realigned on the western side of Morača River due to inundation. ii) Raslovici dam - 1km +000.00 metres to be realigned on western side of Morača River due to inundation. iii) Andrijevo dam – Morača Monastery 14km +502.00metres but there are a number of variants: a. 3a Andrijevo Dam - Morača Monastery, conceptual solution (from 1987.) km 14 +502 b. 3b Lazin - Andrijevo Dam – Morača Monastery 2009 solution km 13+150.00 comprising: i. Andrijevo Dam -Lazin,. km 2 +275 and ii. Andrijevo Morača Monastery km 10 +875.00 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 23

iv) Local roads – 15km +585 metres -: M.Morača (Nikonovac)→Đjurđjevine→Milića brijeg → Crkvine → Pčinja (Jad.Magistrala) v) Local roads - 29 km +720.00 metres - M.Morača(Osredci)→Liješnje→Višnje→Kapetanovo Lake vi) Local Road– 10km 850.00 metres - Sreteška Gora →Prekobrđe→Milića brijeg vii) Local Road - 4km +650.00 metres - Mrtvo Duboko→Smolice→Dumačine viii) Local Road – 6k +100.00 metres Pribojevica→Ropušnica(Lomovi) ix) Local Road - 17km 788.00 metres M.Morača (Debeli lug)→Ljevišta x) Local Road km 2+325.00Bioče (Anovi→Brijeg Vuksanovića→Krkor potok→Bulin bridge (Mala river) -Regional road Bioče → Lijeva Rijeka

The only variant solution proposed for the DSP suggests two alternatives for the road routing between Andrijevo Dam and Morača Monastery. The solution proposed from 1987 suggested a road rerouting of about 14.5kms with many tunnels and bridges. A more pragmatic solution developed in 2009 involved a rerouting of 13.15km with less tunnels and bridges.

2.1.8 Belgrade – Bar Railway

The Belgrade – Bar railway line runs parallel with the Morača River canyon on the eastern side, but is substantially elevated from the canyon floor. For most of the length of the railway through the Morača valley there is a gap of more than 1km between the road on the west bank and the railway line, with the exception of the section near Zlatica dam, where the track is abutting the river. Through a series of tunnels and embankments, the railway skirts around the perimeter of the Mala River (tributary of Morača) before veering eastwards south of the Andrijevo dam and passing through the Trebesica Tunnel. There are no developments planned for the railway track which connects Bar with Belgrade.

2.1.9 Wastewater and Sewerage

The wastewater and sewerage from human settlements in the Morača valley will be channelled along the line of the existing road on the west bank and on proposed new local roads on the east bank of the Morača River. An appropriate number of pumping stations and collection chambers will be constructed along the route and all wastewater and sewage will be finally collected at a central point near Zlatica where it will be treated before being discharged into the Morača River.

2.1.10 Power Houses and Power Lines from the HPPs

Power houses at the four HPPs are shown on the plans from EPCG dating from the 1980’s. The DSP Consult- ant provided further details of the connections of these HPPs to the national grid in late June 2009 as follows:

1. Trunk power transmission line 2 x 110 kV - Podgorica 1 - HPP "Zlatica" 2. Trunk power transmission line 110 kV - HPP "Zlatica" - HPP "Milunovići" 3. Trunk power transmission line 110 kV - HPP "Milunovići" - HPP "Raslovići" 4. Trunk power transmission line110 kV - HPP "Raslovići – Kolasin 5. Trunk power transmission line 220 kV - Podgorica - Pljevlja, input-output in HE "Andrijevo" 6. Trunk power transmission line 110 kV - Podgorica - EVP Trebješica, input-output in HPP "Milunovići" 7. Trunk power transmission line 110 kV - Smokovac - Tuzi, connection to HPP "Zlatica"

The following network diagram (see Figure 2-5 ) shows the envisaged connection of the four HPPs to the national grid. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 24

Source: EPCG Figure 2-5: Proposed Network Diagram for Power Generation from Morača HPPs to National Grid

2.2 Upper Catchment Reservoirs In addition to the four HPPs, the DSP also provides limited details on 11 multipurpose reservoirs in the upper catchments of the Morača basin and their location are shown on Figure 2-6. The 11 upper catchment reservoirs would assist in intercepting sediments that are washed out during flood events preventing silting up of the main HPPs downstream and thus extending their operational life. It must be stated however that a decision on construction of these 11 dams and power plants in the upper catchment of Morača basin is yet to be made. Fur- thermore, such development would require a further SEA to be undertaken.

Details of topography, geology, soils, hydrology, climate and generating potential are provided, but in terms of assessing main environmental and socio economic impacts, no information is available; for example there is no data on populations affected, projected land take, biodiversity or other relevant environmental indicators.

Essential details of the dimensions of these upper catchment dams are provided Table 2-5. Some of these dams will be substantial with six structures near to 100metres or greater in height. Elevations of the dams vary substantially with Javor (#1) having the highest elevation of 1257masl whilst Luge has the lowest elevation of 367masl. Table 2-5: Main Dimensions Details of Reservoirs in Morača Upper Catchment Max Total Volume Dam Reservoir Reservoir River Name of Dam Elevation Million m3 Height Area Catchment Source Location (masl) (m) (km2) Area (km2) 1. Javorski potok Javor 1257 4 72 0.20 7.6 2. Morača Ljevišta 1031 32 116 0.67 52.9 3. Morača Krušev lug 593 31,3 98 0.82 107.3 4. Morača Ljuta 465 73 134 1.32 157.7 5. Ibrištica Ibrija 487 9,2 100 0.25 18.0 6. Mrtvica Velji dub 849 19,5 63 0.70 62.0 7. Koštanica Luge 367 12 77 0.36 22.0 8. Sjeverica Kos 499 21,2 115 0.51 24.6 9. Krušev potok Kruševica 1039 4,3 39 0.27 8.4 10. Mala rijeka Nožica 951 19,3 53 ? 36.6 11. Mala rijeka Brskut 787 12 98 0.20 47.2 Source: DSP for HPPs (adapted) Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 25

These reservoirs could provide further sources of small scale hydropower if developed. Table 2-6 below provides further details of generating potential for the 11 small scale hydropower facilities in the Morača upper catchment.

Source:EPCG and DSP (adapted) Figure 2-6: Upper Catchment Reservoirs in the DSP Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 26

Table 2-6: Details of Power Generation Potential for Morača Upper Catchment Reservoirs Annual Mean Operating Usable Dam Installed River Name of Generating Dam River Flow elevation Volume Height Capacity Source Location Capacity m3/sec (masl) Million m3 (m) (MW) (GWh) 1. Javorski potok Javor 0.51 1255 3,6 72 3 5 2. Morača Ljevišta 3.56 1028 27 116 47 80 3. Morača Krušev lug 7.06 590 29 98 27 47 4. Morača Ljuta 9.78 463 64 134 60 97 5. Ibrištica Ibrija 1.27 481 8,4 100 7 13 6. Mrtvica Velji dub 2.0 846 13,5 63 40 66 7. Koštanica Luge 1.53 365 9,5 77 3 6 8. Sjeverica Kos 3.05 496 20 115 19 32 9. Krušev potok Kruševica 0.59 1036,5 3,8 39 19 32 10. Mala rijeka Nožica 2.56 948,5 17 53 14 24 11. Mala rijeka Brskut 3.23 785 11,2 98 74 118 Source: EPCG and DSP (adapted) . Proposed dams listed as #1 Javor, #2 Ljevišta, #3 Krušev lug, #4 Ljuta, #5Ibija, #7Luge and #8Kos are located on flysh bedrock which is highly impermeable and hence a good foundation for such structures. However dam #6 Veljji dub on the Mrtvica River is located on an area of contact between carbonates sediments of Mesozoic age that are not watertight, and watertight paleogenous flysh cliffs of Cretaceous age. As the proposed dam #6 is located in a deep canyon, the watertight flysh cliffs would be expected to hold in the water as long as the dam site profile could be secured to prevent leakage into the carbonates.

It must be stressed that only preliminary studies have been performed on these upper catchment sites and hence they are in the early stages of design. Such developments would be the subject of separate feasibility studies with more detailed studies on geology, geomorphology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, hydrology etc, as well as detailed environmental assessments if they were to be taken further. It is also questionable if some of these planned reservoirs with associated small hydropower generating plants would be economic. For example, Javir (#1) and Kruševica (#9) have small catchment area of less than 10km2 and it is debatable if the dams could provide sufficient water for hydro-generation on a regular basis throughout the year.

2.3 Background to the SEA Pursuant to the law on spatial planning and development and to assist in the decision making process, a Stra- tegic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) is necessary. The SEA is covered by a relatively new SEA Law which was promulgated on January 1st 2008 and closely follows the EU Directive 2001/42/EC. The Ministry of Satial Planning and Environment through the Ministry of Economy, Montenegro (ME) ap- proached the Government of the Kingdom of Norway for technical assistance with the preparation of the SEA; in this case the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). The NVE requested proposals for undertaking the SEA for the DSP from Norwegian consultants and a proposal prepared by the COWI Consor- tium (COWI)2 was submitted by the requested deadline and after negotiations was accepted by ME and NVE. The contract for the assignment was signed between COWI and NVE on 20th January 2009.

2 The Consortium comprised, COWI AS of Norway, supported by fellow Norwegian Companies Ask Radgivning, Bioforsk and the Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research (NIKU). The Norwegian companies are supported by Oikos, a Slovenian company based in Ljubljana, but with office facilities in Montenegro Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 27

2.3.1 Terms of Reference and Objectives for the SEA The terms of reference (TOR) for the SEA assignment were set by the MSPE in consultation with NVE and are contained in Annex 1 of this report. The fundamental objective for the assignment was the preparation of an SEA for the DSP. More specifically the requirements were outlined in the TOR as follows:

“ Preparation of Strategic Assessment to ensure that issues such as environmental and people’s welfare would be fully considered in preparation of the Detailed Spatial Plan, in order to ensure sustainable development, public participation as well as improvement of levels of protection of people’s health and environment.

Likewise, preparation of a strategic assessment would ensure compliance of activities defined in the Detailed Spatial Plan and with existing legal regulations in Montenegro. Strategic assessment will estimate possible adverse (negative) and positive environmental impacts and would suggest adequate measures to be undertaken in order to prevent and reduce adverse and to incentive (stimulate) positive impacts and activities which are foreseen by the Detailed Spatial Plan. Results of the strategic assessment would contribute to adequate decision making in the planning process.”

The TOR provided outline details for the HPPs and referred to further detailed information through a web hyperlink to a MS PowerPoint presentation.3 2.3.2 Scope of Work and Rationale The full scope of work is contained in the TOR in Annex 1. This essentially follows the requirements contained in the SEA Law.

Until recently, Montenegro has been suffering from an electricity deficit which was estimated to be of the order of 1,600 GWh/year. This additional energy had to be imported into Montenegro at an estimated cost of Euro 130 million per year (2007 estimate). However, a recent reduction in domestic demand linked to the expected decline of economic activity (or even possible closure) of the KAP aluminium plant would eliminate current electricity deficits, making export of the generated power from the Morača HPPs more important for the overall success of the project.

Montenegro is also a signatory to the South East Europe Regional Energy Community Treaty (SEERECT) which was signed in Athens October 25th 2005 and came into effect July 1st 2006. This treaty included among other things, emphasis on the need to improve overall energy saving and efficiency and to draw upon the benefits that can result from energy trading between the countries of South East Europe.

It has also been more that 26 years since the last power plant was constructed in Montenegro at Pljevlja. Furthermore, all existing power plants are in urgent need of rehabilitation and technology in the plants needs to be upgraded. There is also a pressing need to build new power plants in accordance with the above- mentioned and recently adopted EDS. Montenegro has an estimated 9,900 GWh/year of hydro power potential and only about 18% (1,800 GWh/year) is currently captured.

The estimated time for construction of the four HPPs on the Morača River would be 6 years and the costs have been estimated recently at € 500 million (+/- 10%) as established by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in its preliminary assessment from July 2008.4 IFC are currently undertaking Technical, Economic and Financial due diligence for the project.

3 Version of a PowerPoint presentation; http://www.gov.me/files/1225804611.pdf 4 An estimate of € 430.1 million was obtained from the Energy Development Strategy of Montenegro to 2025. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 28

Building the four HPPs on the Morača River would thus partly realise the Montenegrin EDS by enabling a total installed capacity of 238.4 MW with an annual electricity generation of about 700 GWh/year to be input into the national grid, thus substantially reducing import dependence and boosting the potential for export.

Montenegro’s untapped hydropower potential also represents a much needed foreign exchange resource. The country obtains much of its present foreign earnings from tourism, but there is a pressing need to try and diversify the economy through emergence of other sectors such as energy. In addition to hydropower, it has been shown (CETMA Consortium) that Montenegro has substantial potential for other renewable sources including wind, solar and biomass. Some of these initiatives are also earmarked for development under the EDS.5

2.4 The Project Area for the SEA The Project Area for the SEA must include areas outside of the designated area for the DSP. This is because some of the issues from the environmental and socio-economic effects of the development extend beyond the boundaries of the DSP. A map of the SEA Project Area in relation to the DSP and the DDZs is shown on Figure 2-7 below.

For example, the provision of energy from the HPPs will influence the whole of Montenegro and could improve the power situation through reduction in power outages that are presently occurring due to excessive demand.

Similarly, the effects of the development on the hydrology of the Morača River will extend further downstream into Lake Skadar and the Bojana River. Changes in hydrology are also likely to influence flora and fauna within the immediate area of the DSP, but also downstream to Lake Skadar and the Bojana River.

Hence, the SEA has divided the project area into two sections:

i) The upstream Morača Catchment as a whole which forms the same area as the DSP within which the DDZ are also contained, and ii) The broader Morača catchment area downstream extending as far as Lake Skadar and the Bojana River

The next chapter will describe the existing environmental status of the area and general development trends that are occurring despite the DSP.

5 CETMA Consortium (2006) Renewable Energy Resource Assessment for Montenegro – Italian Ministry for the Envir- onment, Land and Sea 128 pages. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 29

Source: ArcMap Spatial Data, DSP (adapted) and COWI Figure 2-7: Map of the Overall SEA Project Area Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 30

3 PROJECT CONTEXT 3.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to set the context and baseline within which the SEA on the DSP for the Morača River HPPs is conducted. This chapter complies with Article 15, clause 2 of the SEA Law for Montenegro as it describes the existing environmental status of the project area and its development.

3.2 Description of Project Area - Project Setting The Morača River originates in central Montenegro, under Rzača Mountain where the spring source is approximately 1,490 meters above sea level (masl). The Morača River flows from the source between Mount Sinja- jevina and the mountains of Zurim and Stozac, overlooked by Kapa Moracka (Hat of Morača) towering above at 2226masl, past Morača Monastery before entering a very steeply incised gorge (near to site of Andrijevo dam) which flows in a generally south direction toward Podgorica. Just north of Podgorica the canyon ends (at Zlatica) and the valley broadens out. It is here that the major tributary, the Zeta River joins before the Morača flows into Lake Skadar at Vranjina where the altitude is around 5 masl. The length of the course of the river from the source to the hydrological station at Podgorica is about 113.4 km with an estimated catchment of 2,628km2

The flow of the Morača River can be divided into three parts:

• The Upper section from the Source to Morača Monastery • The Middle section from the Morača Monastery to Zlatica, and • The Lower section from Zlatica to the confluence with Lake Skadar

As shown in the previous chapter, the area of the DSP occupies the middle section of the Morača, River and the SEA Consultant has adopted the same project area to assess the primary impacts. However, the DSP for HPPs will have downstream impacts and for this reason the SEA Consultant has also included the remainder of the Morača catchment area as far as Skadar Lake and the outlet to the Adriatic Sea via the Bojana River.

3.3 Environment 3.3.1 Biodiversity Montenegro has a very high biodiversity of ecosystems, being one of the most important centres of biodiversity in Europe. All continental European biomes (major ecological communities) are represented in the country. Around 20% of the total flora is represented by prevalent endemic and sub-endemic plants and also a number of relict species and ecosystems of international importance are also present in the country. A list of key endemic species in the SEA Project Area is shown in Table 3-7.

The geographical location of the country is along a number of migratory routes and consequently many faunal species are present in Montenegro for large parts of the year. Biodiversity is monitored regularly since 2002, focusing on the species and habitats of international and national importance, with a separate sub-programme on Skadar Lake biodiversity. To the knowledge of the consultant, the data from the monitoring are not systematically assessed yet. Emerald Network and US Biodiversity Reports (2005) as well as the Information on State of the Environment in Montenegro in 2007 (Government of Montenegro, 2008) suggest that biodiversity is declining mostly due to human activities - degradation of mountain forest habitats due to illegal logging activities, overgrazing, tourism and infrastructure development – especially on the coast and riverbanks, illegal poaching, fishing and hunting, mining for industrial minerals, pollutions of rivers and coastal waters. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 31

Table 3-7: Key Endemic Species of the SEA Project Area Taxonomic Species Location Level of Endemism, Comments group Cyclotella scadariensis Skadar lake High Algae Cymbella scutariana Skadar lake High Amphoricarpus bertisceus Morača Catchment Dinaric Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Campanula pyramidalis Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Daphne malyana Morača CatchmentMorača Catchment Dinaric Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Edraianthus ginzbergeri Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Edraianthus montenegrinus Morača CatchmentMorača Catchment Dinaric Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Edraianthus tenuifolius Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Edraiantho-Dianthetum nicolai Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon Highly endemic, tertiary relict Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Iris illyrica Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Leucanthemum chloroticum Morača Catchment Dinaric Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Vascular plant Moltkea patraea Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Pinus heldreichii Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon Balkan peninsula Balkan endemic – from Split to Petteria ramentacea river Zeta - upper stream, Morača Canyon central Albania Pinus heldreichii Morača Canyon (slopes) - in higher areas High Quercus robur scutariensis Skadar Lake High (Skadar oak) Ramonda serbica Mrtvica Canyon Highly endemic, tertiary relict Morača Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Rhamnus orbiculata Highly endemic, tertiary relict Mrtvica Canyon Silene macrantha Morača Catchment Dinaric Trapa longicarpa subsp. Scutari- Skadar lake High ensis Valeriana pancicii Morača Catchment Dinaric Barbatula barbatula sturanyi Skadar Lake Low Barbus peloponnesius Skadar Lake Low Blennius fluviatilis Skadar lake system Low Chondrostoma nasus ohridanus Skadar Lake, Zeta river High Chondrostoma scodrensis Skadar lake system High Cobitis taenia ohridana Skadar lake system High Knipowitschia montenegrina Skadar Lake High Phoxinellus stimphalicus Skadar Lake High montenegrinus Pomatoschistus montenegrensis Morača river, Zeta river High Fish Rutilus basak ohridanus Skadar Lake High Salmo dentex Skadar lake Medium Zeta river (downstream), Morača river Salmo farioides Medium (downstream), Salmo montenegrinus Skadar lake system High Salmothymus obtusirostris zeten- Skadar Lake, Morača river and Zeta river in High sis their lower parts of flow, Cijevna River Scardinius erythrophthalmus Skadar Lake High scardafa Scardinius knezevici Skadar Lake High Amphibians Rana shqiperica Skadar lake High Hemidactylus turcicus Skadar Lake shore Mediterranean endemic Reptiles Lacerta melisellensis Skadar Lake shore Mediterranean endemic Lacerta oxycephala Skadar Lake shore Dinaric endemic Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 32

Looking at natural characteristics, climatic factors and biodiversity, the DSP area can be divided into 3 different units: Morača River with its canyon, wider Morača Catchment Area and Skadar Lake with its surroundings. Morača River is the largest water body that entirely runs through Montenegro. Skadar Lake is the largest lake on the Balkans and one of the largest water bodies in Europe; due to its hydrological characteristics, climate and intermittent nature it is well known for its high biodiversity, especially birds and fish species and wetland habitats.

Flora and Fauna A detailed table with an overview of species has been included in Annex 2 of this report: here only a review of biodiversity is provided

Morača River Area is an important migratory corridor between the Skadar Lake area and Podgorica Valley with their Submediterranean character in the south and more mountainous, Dinaric north. The Mediterranean climatic influence spreads north through the canyon, therefore the Morača area is classified as a Submediter- ranean floristic region, with the Ostryo-Carpinion adriaticum / Ostryo-Carpinion orientalis community. Many of the plant species are of Mediterranean-Submediterranean character, but due to great diversity in height and vertical zonation also numerous Central European and mountainous species of South Europe are present. In higher areas, there are beech forests as well as patches of black pine (Pinus nigra) and endemitic Pinus heldreichii. Species of Mediterranean character are present especially on southern slopes, especially in the Bioče and Duga area. Moreover, Morača River Canyon is a refugium for some species of Mediterranean and steppe character that require less oscillation in climatic factors. A total of 933 plant species from 498 genuses and 107 families were recorded in the Morača River Catchment area. (See Figure 3-8below)

Morača River area was researched in 1986 within the preliminary studies for the 4 hydropower plants that are now planned by the DSP. World Wildlife Fund (WWF) claims in a recent study that the canyon is habitat to app. 1600 species of vascular flora (50% of total number of registered species in the country) and that more than 60 Balkan endemic plant species and more than 85 protected plant species are present.

Invertebrates in Morača area were poorly researched so far; in recent years, research on Syrphidae and Formi- cidae families were conducted in Mrtvica Canyon.

A total of 30 fish species were found so far in Morača River area, 8 of these being listed on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red list. The fish fauna of Morača is very peculiar because it contains fish species both of the Adriatic as well as of the Danube River basin; moreover, for some species with a centre of distribution in Albania, Morača is the northernmost boundary of their distribution. There is no detailed information on sections of the Morača River that is an important spawning area. The most common species are Phoxinus phoxinus, Barbus rabeli and Telestes montenegrinus. A decline in salmonid populations is noted. Characteristic species are Leiciscus souffia montenegrinus which is quite common in Morača and Salmo farioides Karaman which is quite numerous in Morača north of the Morača Canyon (north of Platije - Andrijevo dam location) and its tributaries but less numerous in the middle part of Morača (Platije to Podgor- ica). These salmonid species are migratory and to a different extent dependent on Morača connectedness of upper and lower Morača Catchment. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 33

Map of protected rare/endangered/protected plant species (source: Biodiversity Maps, USAID Podgorica, 2002) No. 9: Colchicum hungaricum – Gorica hill (in Podgorica) No. 11: Hydrocotyle vulgaris – northern lake shore of Skadar Lake (wet, flooded habitats) No. 12: Daphne laureola – Crmnica – (near Gluhi Do village) No. 24: Hermodactylus tuberosus – near Virpazar, on Gorica hill (Podgorica) No. 25: Hyacinthella dalmatica - Gorica hill (Podgorica) No. 26: Ilex aquifolium – Morača river canyon (upper part), Mrtvica canyon No. 27: Geranium dalmaticum – Morača river valley upstream of Bioče No. 28: Loroglossum hircinum – Crmnica (near Boljevići) No. 32: Omphalodes verna – Morača canyon (Platije), Mrtvica canyon No. 33: Minuartia velenovsky – Skadar Lake near Virpazar No. 34: Orchis simia – Crmnica (near the village Seoca – close to Skadar Lake) No. 35: Paeonia Mascula – upper Morača No. 40: Quercus robur subsp. Scutariensis – the regin of Skadar Lake (northern lake shore – the vicinity of village Gostilj) No. 41: Ramondia serbica – Southern and northern slopes of Mt. Rumija, e.g. Bijela skala above Murići (above southern shore of Skadar Lake) No. 42: Romulea linaresii - Gorica hill (in Podgorica) No. 46: Taxus baccata – Morača canyon (Platije), Mrtvica canyon, No. 50: Sternbergia colchiciflora - Gorica hill (in Podgorica) No. 51: Sternbergia lutea – Duklja (Podgorica)

Figure 3-8: Locations where protected plant species were found Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 34

The area is rich with large mammals, including chamois Rupicapra rupicapra, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, brown bear Ursus arctos, wolf Canis lupus and wild boar Sus scrofa. Numerous species of smaller predators are present, too, such as fox Vulpes vulpes, pine marten Martes martes, beech marten Martes foina, otter Lutra lutra and badger Meles meles.

There are also numerous bird species, especially birds of prey. A recent study by WWF on bird fauna of Mor- ača Canyon also shows the following: • 130 species were registered in Morača canyon out of which 127 species have a protected species status, • 84 species breed in the canyon (confirmed by field survey); • 10 species most probably breed in the canyon (breeding not confirmed but expected); • 29 of 52 species eligible for declaring an Important Bird Area of Montenegro have been found in the canyon; • 24 species are listed in the Annex I of the Bird Directive; • 67 species are Species of European Conservation Concern (SPEC) ; • 23 species are Emerald species according to the Bern Convention; • 72 species are listed in the Appendix II of the Bern Convention; • 36 species are listed in the Appendix III of the Bern Convention • 46 species are listed in the Annex II of the Bonn Convention; • 14 species are listed in the CITES Convention; • 7 species are listed in the African-Eurasian Water bird Agreement (AEWA).

Skadar Lake is an extremely important area in terms of biodiversity and especially as an important point at migratory routes of birds. It is high in biodiversity due to several factors: • Two major zoogeographic areas meet here: the Palaearctic region (Europe, Asia, the Mediterranean and North Africa) and the Palaetropic region (Africa). As a result occasionally African bird species (e.g. Afric- an cuckoo, African black heron, flamingo) and winter migratory bird species of West Siberia (ducks, geese) can be spotted. • In the past, especially during glaciations, it functioned as a refuge for several species. As a result, today some relict and endemic animal and plant species are met in the area. After the ice age, species such as the turtledove, the Dauric swallow, Syrian woodpecker and Spanish sparrow have come to the region as they expanded their distribution area. • High variations of water input and water levels, resulting in intermittent character of the lake. The result are vast wetland areas, especially on the north side and south of Virpazar, including humid forests and floodplains, which also function as spawning grounds, refuges and breeding habitats for various species.

In Skadar Lake about 64 genera with 310 species and taxa of phytoplankton can be found; species composition is an indicator of water quality which may indicate that the lake is oligotrophic, although other factors indicate that the lake is mesotrophic and even on the verge to eutrophic. The majority of the species are from the Diat- omeae family, the most common species being Cyclotella ocellata and Aulacoseira ambigua, however, blue green algae seem to increase in the western parts of the lake in recent years. Most of the species are cosmopol- itan and alkalophilic.

The whole area of Lake Skadar has a great variety of aquatic macrophytes - 164 species belonging to 66 genera and 43 families. In the north, the prevalent communities are the Scirpus – Phragmites community (Phrag- mites communis, Scirpus lacuster, Typha angustipholica) and the Myriphillum verticillati – Nuphar community, where especially Nuphar, Ceratophyllum, Trapa and Potamogeton species are represented. The western lake shore is very steep and rocky with almost no macrophytes. Extended reed beds (Phragmites) are characteristic of eastern and southern lake shore. Reed beds and other macrophytes are important for the lake ecosystem because of their purification capacities through nutrient retention and transformation (nitrogen, phos- phor) and binding of pollutants; they purify the Morača River water as it passes through the wetland before it enters the lake. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 35

Willow forests (Salicetum albae) are the most abundant forests around the lake, mainly on the northern shore and in the flooding area. They are used by the local population for the production of fuel wood, for construction and for woven handicraft products. Other forests are quite degraded and remain present only in a few degraded stands: this is especially the case with the forests of Skadar's oak (Quercus robur ssp. Scutariensis), but also of domestic chestnut and oak forests (Querceto castanetum montenegrinum), oak and European Turkey oak (Quercetum confertae ceris), as well as hornbeam (Carpinetum orientalis) (see Photo 3).

Photo 3: Wetland Plain at Plavnica

Photo 3 shows the wetland plain at Plavnica on the northern shore of Skadar Lake, with Morača in the background and clearly visible changes in vegetation.

About 257 species of invertebrates are known in the area; however, it must be noted that invertebrate groups have not been well researched although they play an important part in the food chain. Skadar Lake is very rich in amphibians and reptiles, including endemic and endangered species such as Skadar green frog, Rana shqiperica; 51 species were listed so far.

Fish fauna of Skadar Lake is highly diverse due to an extensive network of rivers and streams, favourable spawning grounds and good communication with the sea. Most of the species are cyprinid, but the species vary from highland coldwater fish species to warm freshwater fish species as well as several marine species. Literature data on the number of species vary between 50 and 60 species belonging to 17 families; however, it must be noted that even recently new species were found (e.g. Pomatoschistus montenegrensis, (Miller & Šanda, 2007), Knipowitschia montenegrina, (Kovačić & Šanda, 2007) and Scardinius knezevici, (Bianco & Kottelat, 2005)) and this might well continue in the future. Fish fauna of Skadar Lake has high level of endemism: according to the data recently collected in a WWF study 31 species are endemic with Adriatic – Ionian distribution and of these 8 species are endemic to Skadar Lake system. This information is shown in Annex 2.

About 10 species are commercially exploited (e.g. carp, bleak and eel, the first two representing more than 70% of the catch), representing more than 95 % of the total fresh water fishery in Montenegro. Although it is karstic and has characteristics that would classify it as oligotrophic, the biomass production in general and thus also fish biomass production of Skadar lake is much higher, thus closer to eutrophic lakes. WWF cited a study from 1983 showing that fish production in Montenegrin part of Skadar lake is 80 kg/ha (8000 kg/km2). The Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 36

study estimated that at least 300 families directly depend economically on the fish stock as their main income and additional 300 families depend indirectly on fishery activity reaching the total number of about 600 families who directly or indirectly depend on fish as their main resource for income generating. Today the number of families directly depending on fishing is probably quite low, but the number of families indirectly relying on it might be the same or even higher due to tourist development of the area; moreover, fishing might be important source of additional food and income and therefore a means for alleviation of poverty. In their recent study, WWF estimated that the whole economy based on fish as a main resource (fishing, fish processing, restaurants, sport fishing etc) is worth at least €4.250.000 on a yearly scale.

Skadar Lake is an important area for birds because of good nesting and colonisation conditions and its location along migratory routes. Numbers on species of birds vary in literature, ranging from 271 to 281; they belong to 18 taxonomic orders. The studies have shown that:

• Only 11% of the recorded species are residents, thus almost 90% of them are regionally and inter-contin- entally mobile, linking the region to neighbouring countries, Asia and Africa, • more than 30% of species are wintering birds, 45 species are regular winter guests, • some 90 species visit the lake irregularly, • around 73 species of migratory nesting birds inhabit the lake in spring/summer and then leave, • about 18 species use the lake as a stopover on their flights over during autumn and spring, • 12 species spend summers on the lake, while their populations nests in the north, • more than 30% of species are passerines, • more than 205 species are breeding in the Lake area.

Waterfowl winter counts on the Montenegrin side of the lake show that between 1990 and 1999 numbers of birds varied between 150,000 and 250,000, but since 1999 numbers have dropped strongly to 35,000 in Janu- ary 2005. The largest are the flocks of Fulica atra, Anas platyrhynchos and Aythya ferina. In 2001 hunting ban was enforced. The 5 nature reserves within the Skadar Lake National Park have been designated with this status primarily as breeding areas for birds.

The mammals in the Skadar Lake area are poorly researched; so far 50 species were found in the area, with only a few species such as the otter (Lutra lutra) strongly linked to the water habitat and most of the species living in the hilly areas to the South-West of the lake. Bats are one of the mammal groups that are especially abundant around the lake.

Proposed Emerald sites In Montenegro, species and habitats of international importance, based on Resolutions 4 and 6 of Bern Con- vention and Annex I and Annex II of the EU Habitat Directive were identified through a project “Establishing an Emerald Network” that was run by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism from 2005 to 2008. Areas of special interest - Emerald areas were proposed on the basis of data for the proposed sites in order to form the base for potential NATURA 2000 sites.

The Morača Catchment area contains 2 proposed Emerald sites – Mrtvica Canyon and Mala Rijeka Canyon. In addition, part of the upper catchment is integrated into a proposed Sinjajevina Emerald Site. Lake Skadar is also recognised as a proposed Emerald Site (see also Table 3-8 below).

In Montenegro6, 32 sites were proposed hosting 162 animal species, 10 plant and moss species and 156 habitat types of international importance. However, the network of Emerald sites has not yet been accepted as there

6 Legal Framework of protected sites and status of ecological networks in Montenegro, Ministry of Tourism and Environ- ment of Montenegro given on The REReP regional meeting on Natura 2000 in SEE region on May 29th 2009 in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 37

are some disagreements on certain areas. Consequently, these sites have no legal basis for protection and no special conservation regime applies.

The Mrtvica Canyon was recognised also as an Important Plant Area (IPA) on the basis of presence of 3 habitats - Beech forests (41.1.), oak-hornbeam forests (41.2.) and spring mires (54.12). No detailed, systematic floristic research was done in the area, but there are individual data on presence of protected plant species such as Omphalodes verna, Daphne laureola, Ilex aquifolium, Aquilegia dinarica, Taxus baccata etc.

Protected Areas A total of 7.72% of Montenegrin territory is safeguarded in the form of Protected Areas. Moreover, 17.2% of Montenegro is protected at international level, either due to exceptional natural or cultural values (under UN- ESCO’s World Natural and Cultural Heritage Convention and Man and Biosphere programme), or as a wetland area of international importance under the Ramsar Convention (See Table 3-8 below).

Table 3-8: Protected Areas in the DSP area. Area Status Further characteristics Importance Includes nature reserves Manastirska Of international importance - Ramsar Skadar Lake National Park tapija, Pančeva oka, Crni žar, Grmožur site since 1996. and Omerova gorica Proposed Emerald site. Platije Proposed Natural Monument Canyon Planned for protection in the Nation- al Biodiversity Strategy and Action Mrtvica Optional protection to Morača Catch- Proposed Natural Monument Plan. Mrtvica Canyon is recognised Canyon ment and Canyon also as an Important Plant Area. Mala Rijeka Proposed Natural Monument Based on the species and habitats Canyon present, Mrtvica and Mala Rijeka Morača Optional protection to protection of Proposed Area of Special Canyons are identified also as Pro- Catchment Platije, Mrtvica and Mala Rijeka Natural Characteristics posed Emerald sites. and Canyon Canyons as natural monuments Sinjajevina Southern parts form northern edge of the Also listed as a Proposed Emerald with Proposed Regional Park Morača Catchment area. Site. Šaranci

Ramsar site status gives special importance to Skadar Lake, its seasonal wetlands and pools being important habitat and breeding grounds of rare and endangered species of invertebrates, amphibians, fish, birds and mammals. It is especially important on the international scale because of high number of endemic species and as an important point for migratory birds as well as fish migration and reproduction. With its surface area of approximately 400 km2 it is the largest transboundary water body in South East Europe; approx. two thirds lie within Montenegro and one third is within Albania. A map of protected areas is shown in Figure 3-9 below.

Platije Canyon, Mrtvica Canyon, Mala Rijeka Canyon, Morača Catchment and Canyon and Sinjajevina with Šaranci are proposed for protection under different status and regimes. However at present these are only proposals and they have no legal basis of protection and consequently no special conservation regime is presently applicable. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 38

Source: Biological Diversity of Montenegro, 2008, Podgorica: Government of Montenegro, MSPE Figure 3-9: Existing and planned Protected Areas – with the annotation that Prokletije has been declared a National Park since the map was produced

Comment on Quality of data on Biodiversity The assessment of biodiversity issues was based on data that are available for the SEA project area. However, data on biodiversity in the SEA project area are difficult to use for the assessment for the following reasons: Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 39

• There is no continual observation, therefore it is difficult to correlate the data with the actual state of biodiversity – e.g. it is difficult to say that a species is permanently present or it is just incidental observation. • Data on location and conditions of observation are often lacking, so only general assumptions on presence of species can be made. • Data on sizes and distribution of populations of species are lacking, therefore it is impossible to assess the population dynamics.

The lack of data or their temporal and spatial dimension is critical for Morača and its catchment, while the information on Skadar Lake is more abundant and more recent. Detailed fieldwork surveys would be beyond the scope of SEA. The consultant based its analysis on data provided by Hydro Meteorological Institute (HMI) and publicly available documents, including State of the Environment Reports, studies from World Bank projects on Skadar Lake, reports by WWF and scientific articles. Good quality data both on size and distribution of species are especially important for the endemic species and for the species that are bound to very specific habitats that are relatively rare and discontinued (e.g. in the canyons) and have therefore very specific and narrow range of distribution. In such cases, the SEA precautionary principle is applied.

3.3.2 Land Use The existing land use is influenced by demographic and socio economic factors. The DSP is covered with 19.5km2 of forests, 6.05km2. of agricultural land , 1.16km2 of urbanized areas, 0.3km2 of traffic infrastructure (including the Adriatic main road) and 0.006km2 of graveyards. Existing water surfaces represent 0.98km2 and other unfertile areas 4.83km2.7

In the area downstream of DSP Project Area (the wider SEA Project Area) agricultural land use prevails on the Zeta plain area and Morača plain downstream of Podgorica. The most densely populated and urbanized area in the whole Montenegro is the area of Podgorica with its suburbs. The northern shore of the Skadar Lake has a very large littoral zone under influence of regular (annual) floods and so in this part, there is no distinct shoreline. This area is covered with rich swamp vegetation, expansive meadows and flooded forests.

3.3.3 Soil There are a variety of different types of soils that occur within the SEA Project Area. The soil types are influenced by the climate, underlying geology, relief, vegetation and by human habitation. The following are the main soil types found in the Project Area:

Calciferous-dolomite dark soil (calcomelansol) are the prevalent soils in the Project Area followed by brown acid soil (Distric cambisol), which are more widespread in the upper parts of the Morača catchment area. Oth- er soils of note are rocky soils (Lithosol) and sysrozem (Regosol) which are the initial soils that develop on compacted rocks and loosened regolite. Regosol are very weakly developed mineral soil in unconsolidated materials which are extensive in eroding lands, in arid and semi-arid areas and in mountain regions. Another soil type is Rendzina which is a dark, greyish-brown, humus-rich, soil. It is one of the soils most closely associated with the bedrock type and an example of initial stages of soil development. It is usually formed by weathering of soft rock types: usually carbonate rocks (dolomite, limestone, marl, chalk). Because the soils are shallow and stony, there is much semi-natural vegetation to be found in these areas. The plant communities are distinctive, with much scrub and calcareous grassland, often with unusual or even rare species. There are occurrences of this soil around Bioce. Brown iatric soils (Iatric cambisol) occupy the lowest parts of river valleys (old river terraces), basins and karst fields. Brown soil covering the limestone (calco cambisol) which represents a transitional form between calciferous dark soil into Terra Rossa. Terra Rossa is a type of red clay soil produced by the weathering of limestone and is found along the southern shores of Lake Skadar and on the Zeta Plain extending upstream to the Zeta and Morača valleys. There are alluvial and swampy soils covering the lowest terrains, foot hills and alluvial plains along the watercourses and shores of Lake Skadar. Finally

7 Detailed spatial plan for multipurpose accumulations on River Morača, Urbi, June 2009 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 40

swamp land and Peat Soil containing organic rich deposits are found on the northern shores of Lake Skadar which are extracted on a commercial basis.

3.3.4 Geology Information about the geological, geomorphology, hydrogeological and engineering geological characteristics of the Project Area has primarily been obtained from the report prepared by the local data consultant.8

The limestone mountains are the most dominant geological feature of the DSP area, often with their attendant faulting which are hard and slow to erode, and often persist as steep jagged escarpments, through which the Morača River and tributaries have cut gorges and canyons. Sedimentary rocks of Mesozoic and Cainozoic age predominate, whilst igneous and metamorphic rocks occur as smaller outcrops. These rocks belong to the Dinarides mountain building period and comprise facie of carbonate, igneous and volcanogenic sediments, clayey sandy diabase cherts, flysh and clastics.

Geotectonics – The Morača river catchment upstream from the dam sites for HPP "Zlatica" are part of two large, regional geotectonic units within the Dinarides: the “High Karst” zone and the Durmitor Nappe. Most of the ground belongs to the High Karst, and the final Northern segments of the project area to the “Durmitor Nappe” (Durmitor Overthrust). In the High Karst zone, an anticlinorium and sinclinorium are recognised. Moving from the south to the north, lies the Old Montenegro anticlinorium, then the sinclinorium of the Zeta valley, then the anticlinorium of Prekornica and Maganik, followed finally by the sinclinorium of the upper Morača valley. A geological profile (cross section) through the Project area from south to north shows these geological structures (Figure 3-10).

Data Source: after Karaman and Beeton – (1981) Figure 3-10: Geological Section through Morača Basin

8 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 41

The geomorphology of the project area is a direct consequence of paleo-geographic evolution made up of the above litho-stratagraphic composition and the geo-tectonics of the region and also the past climate of the region. The Morača River and the Bogutovskim and Mrtvica tributaries have carved deep canyons more than 1,000 metres in depth. The hydrogeological characteristics of the area are manifested in processes and occurrences of Karst erosion (“Holokarst”). On the higher parts of rivers there are large deposits of glacial sediments - moraine

Underground movement of groundwater - Due to the underlying geology, water is contributing to the Morača River in the upper reaches upstream of the proposed Milunovici dam site. However just upstream of Milun- ovici and in the vicinity of Zlatica evidence of groundwater “sinks” exist, where water is disappearing and flowing underground before emerging downstream near the confluence with the Zeta River.

In the part of Morača rivers downstream from the mouth of Zeta some hot springs occur at the sources Mileška and Krvenica . Mileška springs are located in the eastern edge of Zeta plain, at an elevation of about 70masl. Krvenica is lower that Mileška at an elevation of 35masl.

Engineering geology characteristics - Rocks within the DSP area were assessed for engineering geology characteristics principally on the basis of dam site construction under the following groupings: • Stable grounds, comprising principally the rocks (limestone) on the eastern side of the Morača River. Rocks have a bearing capacity of > 10,000 kN/m2. Building on such ground should however take notice of any potential caverns below • Conditionally stable ground with a lattice, are the areas in the canyon parts of Morača and its tributaries. These are areas with steep slopes often vertical in nature which could suddenly produce a major rock fall under dynamic conditions. • Conditionally stable grounds with landslides - occur in the higher catchment areas and occur in areas with clays, sands and flysh. Rocks are also in a potentially saturated state and in a stage of decomposition. Such sites include the Upper Morača, Crkvine and Djurdjevine. • Unstable fields with lattice and landslides. These include areas belonging to the mountain slopes of Javor- je – Gradiste – Babin Zub and Peg. These sites are adjacent to rocks within the Durmitor Nappe

The conclusions drawn from the engineering geology suggest that more work is required to be undertaken on the potential area of landslide around Djurdjevine. A tender procedure for geotechnical investigation is currently underway. 3.3.5 Seismic Conditions Seismic data has been primarily obtained from the report prepared by the local data consultant.9 The highest level of earthquake intensity present (Zone IX) lies in a band running parallel to the Montenegro coast; especially the coastal areas, the Zeta-Skadar depression and the Berane basin should be stressed as significant seismically active areas of Montenegro. However the Morača River basin is located in slightly less seismically active Zone VIII. It is worth noting that only one earthquake above 5 on the Richter scale has been recorded in the area for the DSP.

The area of Southern Dinaric Alps has been modelled to assess the likelihood of magnitude of earthquake occurrence. This information is shown in Figure 3-11 below and also provides an outline of the DSP area (in blue) and the approximate dam locations (inverted black triangles).

9 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 42

Figure 3-11: Maximum earthquake magnitude for Southern Dinaric Alps (100 year return period)

As Figure 3-11 shows, the risk of higher earthquake magnitude rises in a southerly direction downstream along the Morača River towards the coast from Andrijevo to Zlatica, which have respective maximum magnitudes of 5.5 and 5.8 Richter for a 100 year return period. The following Table 3-9 shows the maximum earthquake magnitudes that can be expected for different return periods within the DSP area: Table 3-9: Expected Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes - DSP Area Time - Return Period (years 50 100 200 Maximum Magnitude 5.4 5.8 6.2

Seismicity has been assessed for the Morača catchment area on the basis of all available and relevant historical data. The data analyzed indicate that the location of the four future dams on the Morača river are located in a moderately active seismic area, which is characterized by evident, but relatively low level of seismic hazards. Seismic intensity coefficients are shown in Table 3-10 for the HPPs on the Morača River. Table 3-10: Coefficient of Seismicity for HPPs on Morača River (for a return period 475 years) Dam Site Coefficient of Seismic In- tensity (Ks) Zlatica 0.106 Milunovici 0.094 Raslovici 0.086 Andrijevo 0.078 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 43

3.3.6 Natural Resources Rocks and Minerals – Red bauxite occurs within the DSP area, but beyond the levels of inundation by the Morača HPPs. Tile clay of alluvial origin is also found around Kolasin, but outside the DSP Project area.

Within the Morača River course and downstream at Male River, Sjeverice, Mrtvice and Kostanić useful deposits of gravel of alluvial origin occur that are used for concrete aggregates in the building industry. Pebbles and sand of fluvio-glacial origin are also exploited from the Zeta flood plain (outside of the DSP area). Some of the gravel extractions sites are in affected parts of the Morača River upstream of Zlatica, however some of these extraction areas are not licensed (i.e. illegal).

There are also virtually unlimited amounts of limestone and dolomites which could be used in the construction industry, but at present are used very little by the local population. The indigenous rocks are well suited for the construction of the dams on the Morača but few operational quarries currently exist in the area of the DSP. These quarries may find further application in the construction industry after completion of construction of Morača HPPs.

Water Supply - Approximately 70% of the population are provided with water through water supply systems and the remainder, principally in villages use alternative sources (springs, boreholes or hand dug wells). Within the Morača catchment area, there are a number of spring sources – where underground water outflows and the flow of these springs is usually between 2-10 litres/sec. The most important of these spring sources are “Svetigora” at the Morača Monastery and Bijeli Nerini in the Mrtvice Canyon. Construction of the HPPs on the Morača River and the resultant reservoirs will raise the level of underground water in the Morača River and its tributaries, which will increase the reserves of underground water in the permeable rocks in the vicinity of the proposed dams.

Further downstream on the Morača river catchment there are several other sources for public water supply which can be summarised as follows:

• "Bioče," the source of water supply for the purposes of Bioče settlement and partly used for domestic consumption. Water is obtained from two wells drilled into the alluvial sediments of the Morača River very near to the confluence of the Mare River tributary. It is estimated that about 20 l/sec is obtained from this source, which is directly influenced by the Morača River. • "Mareza, is the main source of water supply for Podgorica and is obtained from karstic sources. Some 3.2m3/sec is reported to come from these subterranean aquifer sources. Currently about 1.2 m3/sec of water is used for domestic consumption and the remaining 2m3/sec for the purposes of fish farming. The extent of the underground catchment area for the Mareza source has not been defined, but it is very possible that this source is influenced by the Morača River. • "Zagorica," is another source used for the public water supply for Podgorica. This water is abstracted from fluvio-glacial sediments from the Zeta Plain. The water is abstracted through a wellfield comprised of four operational boreholes. The operational capacity of this source is about 350 l/sec of water. It is considered that part of this source may be fed by water from the Morača River. • "The old airport," is another source used for the public water supply for the city of Podgorica. This exploits the underground water held in fluvio-glacial sediments of the Zeta Plain. The water is abstracted through four operational wells. The exploitable capacity of the spring is about 300 l/sec of water. The extent of the underground catchment area for the Old Airport source has not been defined, but it is very possible that this source is influenced by the Morača River. • "Milješ and Vuksan Lekić are sources that are formed along the eastern edge of Zeta plain. Wells have been provided for water supply for the needs of the villages of Tuzi and part of Malesije, and as additional water for Zeta River. In the summer months around 200 l/sec of water from these sources are exploited. Due to their geographic position and the nature of their occurrence it can be concluded that they are not under the direct influence of Morača river water. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 44

• "Bolje sestre" source is planned to be a new regional water supply to the Montenegrin coast. The site is located in the area of mudflats of river Morača, close to the confluence on the north western edge of Skadar Lake. The source is karstic and emanates from Vrujle for one part of the year due to the high flood levels on Skadar Lake. The Bolje sestre source project is currently under construction, but when operational, about 1.5 m3/sec of water is planned to be used to supply the area of Montenegrin coast.10 Previous research has not been able to define the origin of this source or the extent of the underground catchment area and hence the possibility that the source is influenced from water from the River Morača cannot be fully excluded. However, previous data on the quality of water and its temperature would suggest that there is no direct influence of Morača river water on the Bolje sestre source.

3.3.7 Water Quality Water quality data is contained from the report prepared by the local data consultant. 11 The SEA Consultant has also managed to obtain more recent data from the DRIMON Project for Lake Skadar.

Threats to water quality in the Morača River are believed to mainly derive from the following sources:

• untreated sewage from cities and dwellings not connected to public sewage treatment systems • improper functioning of municipal sewage treatment systems • pollutants (metals, PCBs, PAHs) from industry, in particular the large Aluminium plant (KAP) and also the steelworks at Niksic; • mineral waste oils in the Zeta Plain; • agricultural runoff (predominantly from the Zeta plain).

The main pollutants, therefore, are assumed to be:

• heavy metals and other toxic substances from industry, especially linked to earlier years when the KAP was fully functioning; these pollutants are now expected to be mainly found in sediments and biota in the downstream Morača, in Skadar Lake and in the Bojana River; • faecal bacteria from sewage, that in high concentrations will make the water unfit for swimming, drinking water and irrigation; • nutrients from sewage and agriculture that may lead to algae blooms in the lake, including toxic blue green algae.

Montenegro has adapted a water quality classification system based on three uses of water; drinking, fish production and swimming.12 This system is shown in Annex 3.

The general state of water quality in the upper and middle reaches of the Morača River in the vicinity of Per- nica and Zlatica gauging stations is excellent and is classified as a Category I river. The good water quality is generally preserved until just upstream of Podgorica, however in recent years anthropogenic pressures along the river banks from the bridge at Smokovac, close to the canyon Platije has started to degrade the water quality of the river.

Results from the monitoring station at Gradska Plaza have shown impact from sewage effluent entering from smaller tributaries, but principally from the Zeta River. The impact is proportionally higher during late spring- early summer when there are significantly higher amounts of water. From this monitoring point and downstream, the water course is labelled a Category II River.

10 No SEA was undertaken on this project as the decision was made prior to implementation of SEA Law. 11 Local Consultant report was prepared by HMI. 12 adapted from Lake Shkoder Transboundary Diagnostics Analysis 2006; Royal Haskoning, Annex XII): Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 45

The degree of pollution increases downstream of the Gradski Kolektor – City Wastewater Treatment Plant (PPOV). At this point the highest pollution on the river is recorded. Increased amounts of organic matter entering the river from the PPOV create anaerobic conditions especially at the end of the summer period when flow in the river is low.

Downstream, water quality improves slightly, but large scale gravel extraction between PPOV and Vukovci, has put significant pressure on the aquatic ecosystem.

In Lake Skadar, the first thorough assessments of its water quality were presented by Petrovic and Beeton (1981). During the past three decades the lake and its basin have experienced varying states of pollution. The lake is affected by all pollutant sources mentioned at the start of this chapter. However, a well defined pollution trend for the basin as a whole is difficult to establish on the basis of the fragmented and inconsistent data sets. Data for standard parameters like total phosphorus and total nitrogen are almost non-existent, and laboratory inter-comparisons on data from 2008 show very high discrepancies between laboratory results, which again points to the fact that an upgrading and accreditation of laboratories in this region is needed.

In 2008, the DRIMON Project (www.drimon.no) transported water samples to Norway and analysed them at the accredited Norwegian national laboratory for nutrients, (NIVA-lab). In addition, suspended solids and faecal bacteria were analysed in local laboratories. The variation of water quality during the year is important since a regulation of the Morača River will change the amount of water and therefore the concentration and transport of pollutants. The resulting data for suspended matter, total phosphorous, total nitrogen and faecal coliform bacteria indicated that:

. There is in general an increase in the concentration of suspended sediments in periods with high flow. The highest suspended sediment concentrations were found in the wintertime at 80 mg/l. . The highest levels of total phosphorus was found in February at about 80 µg/l, at more normal water discharges the level fluctuates around 10 µg/l. Total phosphorus is occurring in high concentrations at both low and high water discharges – the high concentrations at low discharges indicate sewage pollution, whereas the high concentrations at high water discharges may indicate phosphorus associated with eroded soil from agricultural fields. . Nitrogen levels are in general high throughout the year, and average about 500-600 µg /l. . Faecal coliform bacteria will normally lie on a count of 250 per 100 ml; but increase during the low summer flows (low dilution) to about 2500-3000 per 100 ml.

The hydrology in 2008 was close to normal hydrological conditions as the average water discharge at Podgor- ica was about 144m3/s, whereas the average for the period 1983-2002 is 140m3/s (refer to the section on hydrology).

The transport of nutrients and sediments in the river is relatively high. An estimation of loads in 2008, which is a year with relatively normal water discharge conditions, showed that about 60-70 000 tons of sediments were transported into the lake. The estimate for total phosphorus is about 150 tons13. These are high numbers and in a lake with longer hydrological residence time this could easily result in strong eutrophication and also growth of toxic blue green algae. In general, however, the quality of the lake water appears to be reasonably good, thanks to the high refreshment rate of 2-3 times per year. However, lake sediment and dry soil quality in some locations is a concern. The following discussion by parameter group gives more details:

Eutrophication related data from the DRIMON Project in 2008: In Lake Skadar in Vranjina, the average Chlorophyll a levels in the period April – October 2008 (at 2 meters depth) was about 11-12 µg/l. However, the maximum value was about 30µg/l. This indicates mesotrophic values, with risks of early eutrophic stages. The analyses of phytoplankton in the lake confirm this conclusion.

13 Based on data and preliminary calculations from the DRIMON Project; www.drimon.no Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 46

The corresponding level of total phosphorus was 21µg/l, with a maximum 38 µg/l, which is within acceptable ranges.

Trend in basic parameters: Most basic parameters of the lake water quality have remained more or less the same since the 1980s, but nitrates and oxygen for example, have deteriorated. The increase in nitrates and reduction in oxygen, in particular near the Morača Delta and the Zeta Plain, may indicate an increase in organic pollution. Eutrophication is not (yet) an issue as a result of the high ‘turn-over rate’ of the lake water mentioned above, but stagnant corners near the Morača Delta and Zeta Plain are at risk.

Trend in PCB-s and PAH-s: Concentrations of PCB in surface water were above the detection limit in the Morača River between 1990 and 1995. Recent measurements of PCB and PAH concentrations are below the detection limit and are currently no reason for concern for surface water quality (as long as the measures taken by KAP remain effective). In the groundwater and sediments these parameters were reason for concern. The values measured in 2005 decreased to acceptable levels, probably due to the measures taken at the KAP. In the dry soils of the Zeta Plain PCB and PAH show concentrations harmful for biota.

Trend in heavy metals: The analysis of metals in the water of the Morača River, Crenojevica River and in Lake Skadar in 1981 (and the years before) showed minimum concentrations of Na, K, Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Mn, Co, As, Hg, Cn and Fe. The comparison between their concentrations upstream of the rivers and at the lake showed little difference, except for some insignificant increased concentrations of Na and Fe at a specific site in the Morača River.

This implies that the lake water at that time was hardly polluted by the existing industries within the lake basin. Note that the KAP began its first production at its full capacity in 1973. Further, all analyzed metals were below the Montenegrin MDK standards for drinking water.14

Recent analyses of lake water and sediments show an increase in concentrations of heavy metals. The concentrations are higher at the mouth of the Morača River, mainly due to the industrial wastes originating from the KAP. The highest Hg content in July 2005 was 1.77 mg/kg in sediments (0.40 mg/kg in fish), while it was un- detectable in 1974-1977 (Filipovic, 1981, p.99). Heavy metals accumulate in the sediments, while the water is refreshed over twice a year. The Hg in the sediment exceeds the EU standards on four of eight locations and of Ni on two out of eight locations in 2005. On the Albanian side of Lake Skadar (Lake Shkoder - Albania) in 2003, at 7 out of 10 locations the concentration of Ni exceeded the EU standards.

Springs: The current analysis of Albanian spring waters (Shegani and Viri) near the lake show that their quality is good and within the permissible limits of the EU standards. Data were not available on spring water quality in Montenegro.

Pollutants in biota: Toxic and carcinogenic substances as PCB-s, PCT-s, PCDD-s, PCDF-s, PAH-s, Phenols, F and CN that enter the ecosystem accumulate in fat tissue of species (PCB-s from 0.008 μg/kg in man to as much as 14,000 mg/kg in fat tissue of fishes and birds). These substances are extremely stable and their decomposition by chemical means or by micro-organisms is very difficult.

Concentrations of PCB-s and other pollutants in lake water, river water, groundwater, lake sediments and in tissue samples from various fish species living in Lake Shkoder have been analyzed during the last 15 years. The concentrations of PCB’s exceeded in some cases in the period 1990-1996 the permitted US EPA values for food consumption (2 ppm or mg/kg).

14 MDK standards are - Maksimalno Dozvoljene Koncentracije – equivalent to Maximum Permissible Concentrations Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 47

A recent study from 2005, by the Universities of Heidelberg (Germany) and Shkodra (Albania), showed that the highest concentration of total PCB-s was found in rudd (Scardinius erythrophtalmus scardapha) being 200 μg/kg and that the lowest concentration was found in perch (Perca fluviatilis) being 35μg/kg. Recent data from Montenegro on PCB-s in water and in fish (analyzed in 2004 and 2005) show that concentrations of PCB-s decreased strongly since the 1990s. This is the result of a combination of the following:

• the removal of the source of pollution: all barrels and soil contaminated with Piralen from the KAP are now placed in a special bunker; • pollutants are transported quickly by groundwater due to the high permeability of the soil in the Zeta Plain; • the high precipitation in the region during the last 15 years; • the high ‘refresh’ rate of the water in the lake.

PCBs end up partly in the lake sediments, where they can remain for a long time. This was confirmed during a project carried out by Heidelberg University with the Universities of Montenegro and Shkodra in 2001-2002, applying passive sampling using Semi-Permeable Membrane Devices (SPMD), simulating long-time exposure of an organism to pollutants. Benthic fauna (e.g. worms, eels) are in particular exposed to pollutants in the sediments.

3.3.8 Hydrology

Introduction Montenegro has a main watershed axis going northwest-southeast. The Piva, Tara, Cehotina, Lim and Ibar rivers are major tributaries of the Danube system which eventually drain into the Black Sea, whilst the River Morača with its main tributary River Zeta provide water to Lake Skadar in the south, and eventually to the Ad- riatic Sea via the Bojana River. The country is well endowed with water resources and the prevalent topography is very suitable for hydropower generation. The main rivers are shown on Figure 3-12 below.

Since the Project Area in reality extends all the way to the Bojana River outlet at the Adriatic Sea, the hydrology of Lake Skadar must also be considered in this SEA. The lake level fluctuations are partly influenced by fluctuations in the Morača, but also partly by fluctuations in the larger Drim river system (Strategic Action Plan for Skadar/Shkodra Lake; 200715).

The Morača River has three main branches;

• Morača River upstream of Podgorica, hereafter called Upper Morača • The Zeta River, joining Morača just upstream of Podgorica • The Cijevna River, entering the main system downstream of Podgorica.

15 Ministry of Tourism and Environment Montenegro and Ministry of Environment, Forests and Water Administration of Albania 2007: The Strategic Action Plan for Skadar/Shkodra Lake; Albania and Montenegro. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 48

Figure 3-12: Location of Main Rivers and Existing HPPs in Montenegro

Hydrological Stations in the entire system affected by the planned HPP The SEA has used four main stations for estimating the water discharge situation in the Morača River system: • Morača at Podgorica (downstream of confluence between Zeta and Upper Morača Rivers) • Morača at Zlatica (Upper Morača River, just upstream of the confluence with Zeta River) • Morača at Pernica (Upper Morača River, near the site where Andrijevo dam will be built) • Zeta River at Danilovgrad

In addition, the following stations have been used in this analysis: • Skadar at Plavnica • Crnojevica • Bojana at Fraskanjel • Drim River at Vau Dejes dam

Table 3-11 below shows the available type and period of data for each hydrological station. As the table shows, there is some overlap in the data which enables comparisons between the stations, and therefore also an analysis of the relative flow in the different parts of the system. Table 3-11: Data Availability for discharge and water level - shown for each station

Station Name Mean Monthly Mean Monthly Mean Daily Water Mean Daily Discharges Water Levels Discharge Water Levels Morača at Pernica 1956-2004 Morača at Zlatica 1983-2002 Zeta at Danilovgrad 1948-2003 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 49

Station Name Mean Monthly Mean Monthly Mean Daily Water Mean Daily Discharges Water Levels Discharge Water Levels Morača at Podgorica 1948-2004 2007 2007 and 2008 Skadar at Plavnica 1948-2002 2007 and 2008 Crnojevica 2007 Bojana at Fraskanjel 1960-2003 Drim River at Vau Dejes 1984

Prohaska and Ristic (2004) provided a map of the catchment stations, which has been copied in Figure 3-13. Clearly, there are several more hydrological stations in the catchment than what is shown in this report, but the years of data from each station are not known.

Source: from Prohaska and Ristic 2004. Figure 3-13: Map of tributaries and hydrological stations in Skadar’s catchment area. Present water discharge situation in Upper Morača or the DDZ-area Two water level stations are situated in the Upper Morača; Zlatica, whose flow estimates corresponds to the entire flow of the sub-catchment of Upper Morača, and Pernica, which is located in the area where the upper- most dam (Andrijevo) is planned. The water discharges of these two stations have been monitored for several Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 50

years, of which the years 1983-2002 overlap. Monthly means, minimums and maximums for this period are shown in Table 3-12 and Figure 3-14.

Table 3-12: Mean, minimum and maximum monthly and annual (AMean) water discharges for upper Morača.

St Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AMean

Pernmean 21.9 20.4 24.1 46.2 50.4 21.2 7.0 5.6 17.8 24.8 42.7 35.6 26.5

Pernmin 4.2 3.5 6.6 25.4 13.1 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.6 8.8 7.2 6.9

Pernmax 56.2 48.8 63.7 90.6 101.4 44.0 11.1 13.4 49.8 77.7 87.6 103.5 62.3

Zlatmean 67.2 61.3 63.0 103.2 86.8 35.5 8.1 5.1 32.7 51.7 101.4 89.5 58.8

Zlatmin 6.0 4.0 20.9 61.1 28.9 6.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 1.0 14.8 15.5 13.5

Zlatmax 175.9 167.0 137.5 208.4 163.1 91.6 17.5 25.1 110.5 197.2 227.2 266.2 148.9 Zlat = Upper Morača at Zlatica and Pern is upper Morača at Pernica. All values in m3/s. Data from 1983-2002.

Clearly, flow during the winter period more than doubles on the way from Pernica to Zlatica, whereas the difference between both the mean and minimum flow is significantly less during the summer period. On average, the mean flow throughout the whole year more than doubles on the way from Pernica to Zlatica. In August, however, the mean and minimum flows are actually lower at Zlatica, this may be due to several reasons, including (a) the results shown in the table are averages of many years; (b) measurement difficulties during such low flows, (c) most of the water travels within the bed sediments at Zlatica and is therefore not measurable; and/or (d) loss to groundwater from Pernica to Zlatica becomes more visible during this dry season. At any rate, the flow is very low at both two stations during minimum conditions at summertime. Variations are, thus, huge from low to high flow: In years of low flow, the minimum monthly water flows are as low as to 0.2 m 3/s at Zlatica, whereas the highest water flow here was 208 m3/s in the month of April.

Mean, min and max monthly flow in Moraca at Pernica 1983-2002 120.0 Min Mean Max 100.0

80.0 s /

3 60.0 m

40.0

20.0

0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des

Mean, min and max monthly flow in Moraca at Zlatica 1983-2002

300.0 Min Mean Max 250.0

200.0 s /

3 150.0 m

100.0

50.0

0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source Data from 1983-2002. Min, Mean, Max: Monthly minimum; mean and maximum, respectively Figure 3-14: Water flow at two stations in the upper part of Morača River; Pernica and Zlatica. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 51

Water discharge characteristics in the larger Morača river system The flow in Morača at Podgorica comprises Morača Upper at Zlatica plus Zeta at Danilovgrad plus a residual flow. This residual flow is assumed to mainly include the water entering the system between Danilovgrad and Podgorica, as well as the River Ribnica entering the system from the east. Figure 3-15 shows the various water discharges. The flow at Podgorica is almost the same as Zeta at Danilovgrad and Morača Upper at Zlatica combined, but a small residual flow of 1-17 m3/s is added in the distance between the stations.

Mean monthly flows in Moraca

Moraca at Podgorica Moraca at Zlatica Zeta at Danilovgrad Residual flow 250.0

200.0

150.0 s / 3 m 100.0

50.0

0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr MaY Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Residual flow is the flow between Danilovgrad and Podgorica. Data from 1983-2002. Figure 3-15: Monthly mean water discharge data

This means that, on average, the flow in Zeta and the flow in Upper Morača is almost similar, but Zeta River is contributing about 14m3/s more on average for the year (Table 3-13). Table 3-13: Overview of mean monthly flows in the Morača River systems

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Zeta at Danilovgrad 95.8 99.2 90.2 113.0 65.6 37.5 17.9 12.1 42.1 66.5 118.2 121.4 Residue flow* 10.4 6.4 4.6 17.2 9.0 1.6 2.8 4.3 1.2 3.4 15.8 17.6 Morača upper 67.2 61.3 63.0 103.2 86.8 35.5 8.1 5.1 32.7 51.7 101.4 89.5 Morača at Podgorica 173.4 166.9 157.8 233.4 161.4 74.7 28.8 21.5 76.0 121.6 235.4 228.5 Note: All values in m3/s. * Residual flow consists of the water entering the system between Danilovgrad and Podgorica, including the River Ribnica entering the Morača river system from the east.

In order to demonstrate the dependency of flow on the Upper Morača River for the rest of the Morača River, an analysis was done on flows at Zlatica and Podgorica. This analysis is done for monthly mean flow, as well as for minimum and maximum flows; Table 3-14 gives the results; whereas Figure 3-16 and Figure 3-17 illustrates the results in graphs.

For the maximum flow values, Zlatica constituted about 47 % on average of the flow in Podgorica; for the mean values Zlatica constituted about 40% whereas for the minimum values, Zlatica only constituted 27 % of the flow at Podgorica. The relative input of Zlatica’s flow to the river system was usually greatest in the month of May, but there are clear variations between the months. It must be noted that downstream of the station in Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 52

Podgorica, River Cijevna is entering, which means that for the larger system including Lake Skadar the importance of Upper Morača is further reduced.

Table 3-14: Mean flow in upper Morača River (Morača at Zlatica) as percentage of mean flow at Podgorica; for mean, minimum and maximum monthly flow Mean: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Podgorica 173 167 158 233 161 75 29 22 76 122 235 229 Zlatica 67 61 63 103 87 36 8 5 33 52 101 89 Diff in m3/s 106 106 95 130 75 39 21 16 43 70 134 139 Diff in % 39 37 40 44 54 48 28 24 43 43 43 39 Maximum: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Podgorica 399 412 343 478 297 156 45 57 222 382 490 566 Zlatica 176 167 138 208 163 92 18 25 111 197 227 266 Diff in m3/s 223 245 206 270 134 64 28 32 112 185 263 300 Diff in % 44 40 40 44 55 59 39 44 50 52 46 47 Minimum: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Podgorica 36 41 39 132 50 25 16 10 12 15 36 33 Zlatica 6 4 21 61 29 7 2 1 0 1 15 16 Diff in m3/s 30 37 18 70 21 18 14 9 12 14 22 17 Diff in % 17 10 54 46 57 27 10 7 2 7 41 47

Differences in monthly flow at Podgorica and Zlatica stations, at mean, min and max flow conditions

) 350 s / Mean Max Min 3 m (

300 a c i t a l 250 Z

t a

w 200 o l f

a 150 c i r o

g 100 d o P

t 50 a

w o l

f 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des

Data from 1983-2002. Min, Mean, Max: Monthly minimum; mean and maximum, respectively Figure 3-16: Differences in m3/s between Morača at Podgorica and at Zlatica at different months. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 53

Percentage differences in monthly flow at Podgorica and Zlatica stations, at mean, min and max flow conditions

70 Mean Max Min

t a

w 60 o l f

l a

t 50 o ) t

% f ( o a 40 c n i r o i o t r g

o 30 d p o o P r p

20 s ' a c i t 10 a l Z 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des

Data from 1983-2002. Min, Mean, Max: Monthly minimum; mean and maximum, respectively Figure 3-17: Proportion of flow at Zlatica as a percentage of flow in Podgorica.

Finally, it should be noted that variations are not only large between months, but also between years (Figure 3- 18). For Morača at Podgorica the variations of annual means (as calculated from the monthly means) range from about 100 to about 200 m3/s. Both tributaries contribute almost equally to these variations, with an amplitude of about 50 m3/s, illustrating that their catchment area’s hydrology are relatively equal.

Mean annual discharge

250 Moraca at Podgorica Moraca at Zlatica Zeta at Danilovgrad

200

150 s / 3 m 100

0 3 4 6 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 9 0 1 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

For three stations as calculated from mean monthly discharge values for the years 1983-2002. Figure 3-18: Variation in Mean annual discharge Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 54

Water levels in Skadar Lake; and their dependency on tributaries and the outflow river The upper panel of Figure 3-19 gives the daily means for water levels in Lake Skadar in 2007, together with the daily means for water levels in Morača at Podgorica and in the hydrological station in Crnojevica. The chart shows how Morača and Crnojevica water levels follow one another, with some exceptions, and also how the water level in the lake responds to increases in water levels in the tributary rivers. The lower panel shows maximum and minimum values of water level in Skadar at Plavnica for the monitoring period of 1948-2002. The variations per month of the maximum and minimum values are from about 1 metre in summertime to about 4 metres in the winter season. This indicates that the biota in the lake is probably adapted to large water level variations.

Water levels

1000 Moraca Skadar Lake Crnojevica 900 800 700

r 600 e t

e 500 m m

c 400 300 200 100 0 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...... 1 3 4 5 7 8 0 2 6 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 ...... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Monthly water levels Skadar Lake at Plavnica

10 9 8 7 6 l s a

5 m 4 3 2 Min Max Mean 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Upper panel: Daily mean water levels (cm) in Skadar at Plavnica; Morača at Podgorica and Crnojevica in 2007; Lower panel: Maximum (Max), minimum (Min) and mean (Mean) values of water level in Skadar at Plavnica for the monitoring period of 1948-2002 Figure 3-19: Water levels in Skadar Lake and tributaries Morača and Crnojevica. The correlation between mean monthly flows in Morača at Podgorica and mean monthly water levels at Plavn- ica for the period 1983-2002 is shown in Figure 3-20. The correlation is relatively poor, with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.6616. At one and the same water discharge in River Morača, the water level in Skadar Lake may vary with more than a meter. Some of this can be explained by hysteresis effects; i.e. that the water

16 R2 is a measure of how well two variables correlate; the closer to 1 the better the correlation. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 55

level in the lake rises slower than the water flow in the tributary. This is believed to be due to a slow response time for the water levels in Skadar Lake, as it will take time to fill the lake. It is also probable that the groundwater flow continues to flow into Skadar Lake after Morača has had its peak water flow. The end result of this is that for one and the same water flow in the Morača River, you may have a variation in water level in Skadar Lake of up to 1.5 meters; e.g. at a water flow of about 200 m3/s in Morača, the corresponding water level in the lake can be anything from 5.7 to 7.2 masl.

Correlation monthly values y = 0.0055x + 5.4345 R2 = 0.6593 9 8.5 ) l

s 8 a m

( 7.5

a c

i 7 n v

a 6.5 l P

t 6 a

a 5.5 d a

k 5 S 4.5 4 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Moraca at Podgorica (m3/s) Source: Monthly mean data from 1983-2002- Water flow in m3/s; water level in masl Figure 3-20: Morača Water flow at Podgorica and Lake Skadar water levels at Plavnica

There is also an additional explanation to the low correlation between Lake Skadar water levels and River Morača flows, and that is that the water levels in Skadar Lake are influenced by the water flow in the Drim system. High water flow in the Drim will impede the outlet of water from the lake and some water may also enter the lake from this large river system.

We have obtained data from only one year (1984) of the most interesting station in River Drim (River Drini in Albania) – i.e. the station at the outlet of the dam at Vau i Dejes in Albania, which is the lowermost hydropower regulation in the Drim River system. Although data from just one year do not prove this theory, they certainly do not contradict it, as shown in Figure 3-21 and Figure 3-22. The charts show that for 1984, the correlation between monthly mean water levels in the lake at Plavnica correspond better with water discharges in the Drini at Vau i Dejes than at Morača at Podgorica. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 56

800

700 l e

v 600 Drini at Vau i Dejes e l (m3/s) a e s

500 Bojana at e

v Fraskanjel (cm asl) o

b 400

a Skadar at Plavnica

m (cm asl) c 300 d Moraca at n

a Podgorica (m3/s)

s / 200 3 m 100

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Data from 1984. Figure 3-21: Water levels (cm asl) in Lake Skadar and Bojana and flow (m3/s) in Morača and Drim.

Drini and Skadar Moraca and Skadar 7.5

R2 = 0.4504 7 e

k 2

a R = 0.6603 L

a 6.5 d a k S

n 6 i

l s a

m 5.5

5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 m3/s in Drin and Moraca

Data from 1984. Blue: Correlation Drim and Skadar; Pink: Correlation Morača and Skadar. Figure 3-22: Correlations between Lake Skadar and, respectively, Drim River (Albanian station at Vau i Dejes), and Morača River at Podgorica in 1984

Furthermore, the water levels in the lake also correspond well with the water levels in the outlet river, Bojana at Fraskanjel (Figure 3-23 and Figure 3-24). The very good correlations (R2=0.96) imply that the water level in Skadar is closely linked to the water level of the outflow river. This shows that the Bojana River is highly influenced by the lake. Indirectly, this also indicates that the lake level must be dependent on water flow in the Drim River system. The station at Bojana/Fraskanjel receives water both from the Drim River and the Skadar Lake, and the fact that the levels at Bojana/Fraskanjel and Skadar/Plavnica are so well correlated can only mean that the levels of the lake depend on the Drim River system. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 57

Skadar Lake and Bojana at Fraskanjel

7 y = 0.2148x2 - 1.6003x + 2.9655 6 R2 = 0.9555 5 ) l s a 4 m (

n 3 a j o

B 2

0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Skadar Lake (masl)

Source: Data from 1960-96 and 2001-2002 Figure 3-23 Correlation Water levels in Lake Skadar at Plavnica and River Bojana at Fraskanjel

Water levels Skadar Lake and Bojana Skadar at Plavnica 1960-96 and 2001-02 Bojana at Fraskanjel 10 8 l

s 6 a

m 4 2 0

r r l t t n b a p y n u g p c v c a e A a u J u e o e J F M M J A S O N D

Data from 1960-96 and 2001-2002. (The chart shows the data for each year in each month.) Figure 3-24 Actual monthly water level variations Lake Skadar (Plavnica) + River Bojana (Fraskanjel).

Water balance of Skadar Lake Calculating the water balance of Lake Skadar is no easy task. This is partly because of the karstic nature of the catchment areas, partly due to the relatively poor data basis in the area, including not least the availability of detailed maps and data from hydrological stations.

The main input rivers to the lake are assumed to be Morača and Crnojevica. In addition, groundwater sources are believed to contribute with a substantial proportion of the water inputs to Lake Skadar. The main output is the River Bojana. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 58

The size of the entire Skadar catchment area varies according to different sources. One chapter of the Strategic Action Plan for Lake Skadar gives the entire catchment area as 5,179 km2 and in another chapter the area is given as about 5,500 km2. In Prohaska and Ristic (2004) 17 the size of the catchment is given as 5,350, but this includes the lake surface area of 525 km2 which means that the area that drains to the lake is about 4,800 km2. These authors also gave average flow per year for the different stations, of which the area specific flow varied between 55 to 68l/sec per km2 (see Table 3-15) Table 3-15: Area specific flow in some hydrological stations in the Morača River. River Station Area Average Specific flow (km2) flow/yr (l/sec per km2) Zeta Duklov most 327 18 55 Zeta Danilovgrad 1216 78 64 Morača Pernica 441 30 68 Morača Podgorica 2628 161 61 Cijevna Trgaj 383 25 65 Source: Adapted from Prohaska and Ristic (2004).

Table 3-16 is also based on Prohaska and Ristic (2004) and shows total catchment area and water flow of the tributaries to Lake Skadar. One problem with this overview is that the authors have not given information on which years have been used to find average water discharge values, except that a total span from 1948-1991 has been used. The value for Morača at Podgorica, for example, varies with 20m3/s from the Consultant’s calculated average from the period 1983-2002. This also means that we cannot know if the different average values are taken from the same or different periods depending on availability of data. Table 3-16: Water balance of Skadar Lake as suggested by Prohaska and Ristic (2004).

FMON FAL FTOT P E Pn Q q W km2 km2 km2 mm mm mm m3/s l/skm2 106 m3 Morača at Podgorica 2628 0 2628 2336 392 1944 162 61.6 5109 Cijevna at Trgaj 153 230 383 2500 442 2058 25 65.3 788 Small streams below Podgorica and 350 0 350 2040 450 1590 18 50.4 557 Trgaj* Total Morača 3131 230 3361 205 6454 Small streams north east of the lake 200 650 850 2200 450 1750 47 55.5 1488 Small streams south west of the lake 750 0 750 2400 500 1900 45 60.2 1425 Lake surface 320 205 525 Total to lake 4401 1085 5486 0 0 0 321 58.5 10120 Explanation for Table: FMON: Area in Montenegro Pn: Precipitation-Evaporation FALB: Area in Albania Q: Water discharge FTOT: Total area q: Area specific discharge P: Precipitation W: Total volume of water E: Evaporation * Rough estimate

Two other hydrological budgets for the lake are given in Table 3-17. The two suggested water budgets, one by the SEA Raw Data Consultant (Hydro-meteorological Institute) and one by a WWF – Green Home group18

17 Prohaska, S and Ristic, V. 2004 Water Resources Regime Of The Scutari Lake Basin Within The Territory Of Montenegro Balwois Conference 2004; Ohrid, FY Republic of Macedonia, 25-29 May 2004 18 WWF MedPO and Green Home (2009): Proposed construction of dams on Morača River: environmental risk assessment of Morača canyon and Skadar Lake. Short version of three reports committed by WWF MedPO and Green Home under the framework of Sharing Waters Project – Skadar Lake component. DRAFT version; Rome, June 2009. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 59

differ only slightly. According to this overview, the main input rivers apart from the Morača are Crnojevica and Orahovštica rivers, in addition to some other smaller tributaries in Montenegro and Albania. In addition comes groundwater springs in the bottom of the lake. Table 3-17: Water Balances for Larger Morača-Skadar Catchment System.

WWLF and Green Raw Data Description of Input/ Output Home Group Consultant Estimate INPUTS Flow m3/s Flow m3/s Morača River flow 202 210 Crnojevica River flow 6 9 Orahovštica River flow 3 5 Precipitation directly on lake 20 30 Other MNG Lake tributaries (Crmnica, Sejanstica, Segrtnica, Baza- gurska Matica, Plavnica, Gostiljska rivers, Pjavnik). 10 4 Albanian side Lake tributaries 15 17 Sub Total river flow into Lake Skadar 256 275 OUTPUT Exit of Skadar Lake into Bojana River (HS Skadar 1) 304 320 Evaporation from lake 15 Subtotal of Outputs 304 335 Difference (assumed groundwater springs flowing into Skadar Lake especially from south western side) 48 60

Drim River Flow from Bahčelek 306 Bojana River Flow at Dajči 610 Source: Local Data Consultant; and WWLF/Green Home

The catchment area of River Crnojevica has not been found in any sources and this has therefore been estimated roughly by the SEA Consultant based on existing maps. This catchment is particularly difficult to measure accurately due to its karstic nature: The River in fact emerges from a cave not far from its outlet in Lake Skadar. For this reason, it is feared that earlier measurements of this catchment have been based on the relatively short stretch of open river course. Our rough estimate is that the river’s catchment area extends some 200 km2, which means that the river should have an average flow of about 12 m3/s based on an area specific flow of about 60 l/s km2.

For the SEA, it is important to get as good as possibly overview of the relative importance of the flow in Up- per Morača for the entire water discharge to the lake. A new calculation where the input data on water discharge derive from the period 1983-2002 was therefore done, see Table 3-18.

Table 3-18: A suggested new estimate of annual water flow into Lake Skadar.

Area Qmean q Qcalc Volume Volume Volume Monitoring Station % of tot % of tot km2 m3/s l/s km2 m3/s mill m3 Morača Skadar Upper Morača at Pernica 441 27 60 836 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 60

Area Qmean q Qcalc Volume Volume Volume Monitoring Station % of tot % of tot km2 m3/s l/s km2 m3/s mill m3 Morača Skadar Upper Morača/Morača at Zlatica 1031 59 57 1854 32 21 Zeta total 1597 Zeta at Danilovgrad 1216 73 60 2312 40 26 Ribnica + downstream Danilovgrad 60 8 249 4 3 Morača at Podgorica 2628 140 53 4415 50 Cijevna at Trgaj 383 25 65 788 14 9 Small streams below Podgorica and Trgaj* 350 59 21 651 11 7 Total Morača 3361 59 186 5855 100 67

Total Morača 3361 59 186 5866 67 Small streams north east of the lake 850 59 50 1582 18 Small streams south west of the lake 550 59 32 1023 12 River Crnojevica 200 59 12 372 4 Total to lake/yr. 4961 280 8843 100 Lake surface 525

Source/explanation of colour codes: Monthly means from 1983-2002 Prohaska and Ristic 2004 SEA Raw data consultant Estimated based on specific flow in nearby rivers Calculated from catchment area and specific flow Calculated by adding the flow in nearby stations Rough estimation

At the hydrological stations the actual area specific runoff can be measured, and the values range from 53 l/s km2 at Podgorica to 65 l/s km2 at Cijevna. This latter value is, however, uncertain since it is derived from Pro- haska and Ristic (2004) and we therefore do not know the years of measurements. It is probable that the lower values for specific runoff is due to loss to karstic groundwater, e.g. at Podgorica. The DSP and the local data consultant report indicate groundwater sinks in the region between Milunovici and Zlatica. A geological cross section of this area shows a general syncline and it is believed that some of this water emerges again downstream of Podgorica.

It is assumed that the water in the lower parts of this catchment may be transported partly in the river courses, and partly in karstic groundwater, which are difficult to estimate accurately. In order to get around this problem in Table 3-18, we have therefore based the water balance on the specific flow, assuming this is relatively equal for all sub-catchments. In other words we do not separate between water running in rivers and water running in underground caves. By using an average of 59 l/s and km2, therefore, Table 3-18 gives the proportion of both surface water and karstic groundwater from each catchment area based on the size of the area and the available stations.

One important outcome of this calculation is that the Upper Morača, where the hydropower plants are planned, contributes to about 32% of the total flow in Morača River and 21 % of the total flow into Skadar Lake. Al- though the operation schemes of the plants are not known, it is likely that the total flow of Upper Morača will still be of approximately the same proportion, but the annual variations of this flow is expected to change. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 61

The hydrology in this area is very complex, and should certainly be more investigated. It is therefore recommended that:

• More data from hydrological and meteorological stations should be obtained from the area, including weekly/daily data series of important stations; • The map coverage should be improved in order to reduce uncertainty on catchment area size • Based on the above data, a thorough study on the hydrology in the area should be carried out. This should include the interdependencies between the tributaries of Lake Skadar and the Drim River system for the water levels of Lake Skadar. The SEA Consultant understands that such an analysis is in the pipeline, fun- ded by a GEF/World Bank initiative; and we recommend that the results of this study should be used in conjunction with more detailed investigations that will precede any further development work on the Mor- ača HPPs including a detailed EIA.

3.3.9 Air Quality Air quality data is contained from the report prepared by the local data consultant.19 In general, there is a lack of record for baseline data depicting air quality in the area of the DSP. Air quality data for the period from 1999-2008 only exists at municipality level for Kolasin and Podgorica. Baseline air quality values within the area of the DSP will be important parameter to obtain prior to any development.

The Centre of Eco-toxilogical Research – Montenegro (CETI) and the HMI Podgorica currently monitor air

quality. The data analysed has concentrated on SO2, NOx, O3 and total particulate matter (TPM) for Kolasin and Podgorica. Data coverage for relevant stations is as follows:

• Kolasin – town centre – 1 station operational between 1999-2002 o Kolasin since 2002 has now monitored air pollution by measuring deposition of pollutant matter in biological materials and heavy metal accumulation of lichen bio-indicators. • Podgorica – 4 stations as follows: o CETI office – operational between 1999- to date o Konik, near the landfill– operational between 2003- to date o Srpska Village– operational between 2003- to date o Donja Gorica– operational between 1999- to date

In general, urban and industrial emissions account for most suspended particulate matter. Industries such as

coal-fired power plants are the main sources of SO2 emissions; cars and electric utilities are the main source of NOx emissions.

Acid deposition occurs when sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) gases chemically change to sul- phuric and nitric acid in the atmosphere and fall to the earth with rain and snow (wet deposition), or with dust and microscopic particles (dry deposition). Acid deposition can harm aquatic and terrestrial life through direct contact and by changing the chemistry of surface water and soils. It also enhances the decay of buildings and other man-made structures. Increase in air pollution affects directly the rain quality.

Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and total hydrocarbon expressed as methane (CH4) are much lower in Kolasin than Podgorica due to the reduced volumes of traffic and exhaust emissions.

The biggest differences in the air quality for Podgorica (outside of the DSP area) is rapidly increasing concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are directly connected with the work of KAP, as well as a drastically increasing number of vehicles, and the combustion of fossil fuels.

19 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 62

There is a lack of evaluation of existing green house gas (GHG) emissions from motor vehicles on the current main road route through the Morača River canyon. Increased monitoring of the air quality and related meteorological parameters during the construction and operational stages of Morača HPPs is also recommended.

3.3.10 Climatic Factors Climatic data has been obtained from numerous sources, but the primary information is from report prepared by the local data consultant.20 Climatic conditions in the DSP project area and the area downstream to Skadar Lake are predominantly influenced by the mountain massifs and the Adriatic Sea. The climate is characterised with high seasonal temperature variations characterised by hot dry summers and autumns and cold winters including high snowfall inland in the mountainous regions. The main monitoring stations are located at Podgor- ica and Kolasin with almost 60 years of records.

The hottest part of the year is July, with, average monthly temperatures ranging from 16oC in the Kolašin area to 27oC in Podgorica. The coldest month of the year is February with average monthly temperatures ranging from 0.5 oC in Podgorica to -6.5oC in Kolasin. Extreme low temperatures vary from-29.8oC in the coldest regions of Kolašin to -9.7oC in Podgorica. Extreme high temperatures range from 36.6oC in Kolasin to 44.8oC in Podgorica.

Main rainfall data from the stations of Podgorica and Kolasin is supplemented from other rain gauges located at Bioče, Orahovo, Pelev Brijeg, Andrijevo, Lijeva Rijeka, Ulice, Morača Monastery and Dragoviæa Polja for the period 1980.-2005. . The average annual amount of precipitation varies from around 1600mm to 2600mm in the mountainous regions of the project area with the wettest period being October, November and Decem- ber, with nearly 40% of all annual rainfall occurring at this time. The driest period is June, July and August which receives just over 10% of the annual rainfall. Snowfall is important and cover varies from 20cm in the lower regions of Podgorica to 200cm (2 metres) in the high mountainous areas of the project area.

Average annual relative humidity is quite high and ranges from 64% in Podgorica to 79% in Kolasin. July and August had the lowest average monthly relative humidity, whilst the winter months have the highest average monthly relative humidity; maximum monthly relative humidity values varying from 86% in December at Podgorica to 92% in February at Kolasin.

Wind vector data records are available from 1995-2003 for Podgorica and from 1993-2003 for Kolasin. North- erly winds are dominant with around 40% of all winds recorded, with the second most common direction from the south with about 25-30% of all winds. Calm conditions exist for around 15% of the time in Podgorica and for 18% at Kolasin. Around 40% to 50% of the winds have wind speeds between 1m/sec to 3m/sec, while the stronger winds of 5m/sec to 10m/sec are represented with about 8% in Podgorica and 6% in Kolasin.

Data for solar radiation – sunshine hours (sometimes called insolation) cover almost 60 years of records from 1949-2007. Data shows that there on average around 2,478 hours per year of sunshine recorded in Podgorica and 1,751 hours in Kolasin. As would be expected the highest monthly amounts of solar radiation occur in the month of July (corresponding with the hottest month) with respective amounts of 339 hours and 247 hours per month for Podgorica and Kolasin being recorded. December is the lowest sunshine month with 109 hours recorded in Podgorica, and with only 57 hours recorded at Kolasin.

Total average annual evaporation for Podgorica is 1,350mm. Maximum average monthly evaporation was 239mm for July, while the lowest was 32mm in January. Maximum monthly evaporation is 273mm, and belongs to the month of July, while the minimum monthly evaporation only 15mm for the month of February. During the year, five months have an average monthly evaporation which exceeds 100mm. Whereas, May, June, July, August and September are the months for which 90% of their monthly amount of evaporation has a value of more than 100mm.

20 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 63

The Lake Skadar area has rainfall stations located at- Ckla, Duravci, Karuč, Ostros and meteorological stations at Virpazar and of less important the meteorological station at Danilovgrad. Data exists from these stations from the late 1940’s except Danilovgrad, which was established in 1959.

The climate has been described as moderate warm and humid, with arid summer period and with the average temperature of the warmest month over 22oC, and with mean annual temperature lower than 18oC, and with pronounced rainy and dry periods during the year.

Average annual amounts of precipitation on the lake vary between 2,000 and 2,500 mm. Temperature in winter is low, due to the high elevations and predominant northerly and easterly winds, but at lake level is above freezing point. Average annual air temperature is about 15oC but varies quite markedly; in December ranging between 6-8oC, whilst in July the temperature is between 32-33oC.

Humidity levels are generally low, the average relative humidity measured for July varies between 45-50% and combined with long sunshine hours and high summer gives a high evaporation rate over the lake.

In conclusion therefore, the climate from Lake Skadar is generally more uniform in nature compared with that of the DSP area which is subject to more extremes. The lake is affected by orographic effects from the surrounding topography and also from the sea.

3.3.11 Climate Change Details on climate change in the project area have been obtained from a report prepared by the local data con- sultant21 and from other sources available on the internet. Monitoring records have been used from stations at Drag Polje, Morača Monastery, Ulice, Andrijevo, Lijeva Rijeka, Kupine, Bioce, Orahovo, and Podgorica.

Analysis of existing trends in temperature and precipitation were performed with the existing data for monthly, seasonal and annual readings. Indicators of change were assessed as being 5 years of record or longer in an increasing or decreasing trend. Anomalies for rainfall and precipitation were represented by percentiles. Gener- ally, problems were encountered with the data due to i) gaps in the monitoring records, ii) variations in time and space and variations in geographic conditions between stations and iii) the length of the monitoring record is not really suitable for this type of analysis. Podgorica has the longest records of reliable measurements and this runs from 1949 -2005. No real conclusions can be drawn from the data and the analysis provided.

The South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation (SEE/CCFAP) represents the outcome of a joint effort of interested South East European (SEE) countries in creating a common platform for sub-regional cooperation in climate change.22

The objectives of SEE/CCFAP are: to understand the main characteristics of climate variability and hazards in the SEE region; to understand existing programmes/projects and institutional arrangements for addressing climate change; and to identify adaptation activities to climate hazards and climate change.

One of the most recent Assessment Reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows, the projections of global climate changes made for various scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. This indicates that the average global warming of the surface atmosphere at the end of 21 century, in comparison with the year 2000, will range from 1.8ºC to 4.0ºC. However, it is expected that such a rise in the mean annual temperature in Europe will be higher than the increase at the global level (in the European continent, the rise of the mean annual temperature will be between 2.2ºC to 5.1ºC until the end of the 21st Century).

21 Climate change in the Project Area provided by HMI 22 The SEE/CCFAP, of which Montenegro was a signatory, was prepared in November 2008 with financial support of the Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway within the Regional Environmental Reconstruction Programme for South Eastern Europe. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 64

The IPCC Report recognized the region of Southern Europe as highly vulnerable to climate change. The report shows that in addition to changes in the mean values of climate parameters, there will be changes in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes (storms accompanied with floods and destructive effects of wind, drought, extremely high or low air temperatures, heat waves, snow storms, avalanches, landslides, forest fires, etc.) projected for South Eastern Europe. The consequences of these trends will impact on food and energy production, water supply, biological diversification, hydropower potential, summer tourism, crop productivity and human health.

Hence developers should be aware of such issues as climate change could have important consequences for future hydropower generating capacity on Morača River and water supply for Podgorica and planned tourism in the proposed DSP area.

3.3.12 Material Assets Statistical data show that the DSP project area is scarcely populated, the number of dwellings is low and their size is lower than municipal and national averages. In settlements in Podgorica Municipality more than 20% of dwellings are uninhabited, and in Kolašin Municipality the amount is 14 %. Even more dwellings have occasional occupancy. This information is shown on Table 3-19. Table 3-19: Number and size (m2) of dwellings in the DSP Project Area Dwellings Other in- Total No. Dwellings for living Other dwellings habited of people Total for settlements in total Permanent uninhabited Occasional Business premises 23 DSP project area in Inhabitancy use use Podgorica number 1.855 653 401 796 5 12 Municipality 1.960 size (m2) 93.079 35.434 19.470 37.796 379 487 Kolašin number 6.118 3.801 851 1.457 9 98 Municipality 2.215 size (m2) 314.263 206.510 41.388 66.017 348 3.006 Source: DSP

Two sources of date are used in the DSP to assess buildings affected; the cadastre data used by Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG) in 1987 and orthophoto images taken in July 2007. In total 268 buildings are assessed to be inundated by the development.

Material assets affected by the planned HPP Andrijevo In all, 82 percent of all the 268 buildings directly affected by the four dams are located in the Andrijevo area. In the Andrijevo area, there are 8647 m2 in category I, 3784 m2 in category II and 180 m2 in category III. Aux- iliary objects in category I cover altogether 1173 m2 and category II 569 m2.

The DSP does not define what the above categories mean. The SEA believes that Category I stands for permanently in -use buildings, category II for occasionally used and category III buildings not in use, but this needs to be clarified by the DSP Consultant.

As the only object of economic significance to be affected, the shop called “Market” will have to abandon representing 400 m2. Two local schools covering 580 m2 in all are affected. The premises of the community (sub- municipal) administration cover 360 m2 and a small church (50 m2) will be affected. The DSP contains no information about how this issue will be dealt with.

23 Detailed spatial plan for multipurpose accumulations on river Morača, Urbi, june 2009, data from Population census 2003, MONSTAT Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 65

Some wires, power lines and cables will have to be moved: 3 km of distribution power lines (35kV), 4.2 km of transmission power lines (220V) and 8 km of phone lines. In all 16 km of local roads and a graveyard with about 150 graves will be inundated.

Material assets affected by the planned HPP Raslovici and HPP Milunovici Since the two planned HPP’s in Raslovici and Milunovici are located in a canyon, there is very little in terms of material assets there. In fact, the cadastre and orthophotos refer to no buildings. In the Milunovici area 0.7 km of distribution power lines (35 kV) will have to be moved.

Material assets affected by the planned HPP Zlatica In all, 18 percent (i.e. 47 objects) of the buildings affected are located in the Zlatica area. The objects are all in category I and cover a total of 4566 m2. There are auxiliary objects in category I covering 250 m2, and a water mill covering 250 m2. Also a pumping station will be affected.

Wires, lines and cables will have to be moved: 0.8 km of distribution power lines (110 kV), 0.2 km of distribution power lines (10 kV), 2.4 km of water supply system and 0.5 km of phone lines. In all 0.6 km of local roads will be affected.

3.3.13 Cultural Heritage and Cultural Monuments Details on the cultural heritage and cultural monuments in the project area have been obtained from a report prepared by the local data consultant24. In addition, the SEA Consultant responsible for cultural heritage made a visit to the project area between March 29th and 1st April 2009 to briefly assess the cultural heritage values along the Morača River. Furthermore, the Consultant visited the City Museum of Podgorica (Muzej Grada Podgorice) and the Archaeological Registration Centre in Podgorica and spoke to specialists in specific fields of archaeology and cultural heritage. The SEA Consultant also made a short visit to the National Mu- seum of Montenegro in Cetinje.

The DSP project area is highly influenced by karstic rocks which by their nature (deep cracks, caves, gullies and deep pits) provide a very suitable environment for early man. In addition, the Zeta plain to the south of the DSP area (but within the SEA Project area) with its surroundings, favourable climate, rivers and Skadar Lake, has also attracted numerous and different groups of people for millennia. Traces of early man’s existence have remained there, and several discoveries from Palaeolithic times testify to this fact.

In the more recent past, the area has been subjected to a turbulent history and was frequently the location for confrontations, conflicts and wars. This has unfortunately destroyed substantial amounts of cultural assets. In addition, several catastrophic earthquakes caused destruction on an enormous scale which has further eroded the remaining sites of cultural heritage and archaeological interest. With such erosion of cultural values, it is especially important to attempt to ensure the preservation of what remains.

Cultural Monuments –Montenegro has scheduled a total of 357 archaeological and cultural monument (historical, artistic, building, ethnological) sites.25 These are divided into three categories:

• Category I - Exceptional significance of which there are 35 • Category II - Great importance, of which there are 135 • Category III - Local significance of which there are 187,

Some of these monument sites are in a totally neglected or ruined state, and due to the lack of proper protection programs they are left to naturally weather and are also prone to vandalism. When focusing on the study area there are a total of 43 cultural monuments within the two municipal areas of Kolasin and Podgorica which are further subdivided into the three categories as shown in Table 3-20 below.

24 Cultural heritage report (CHR) “Kulturno istorijski spomenici projektne oblasti” prepared by HMI 25 National Spatial Plan 2008 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 66

Table 3-20: List of Scheduled Cultural Monuments in Kolasin and Podgorica Municipal areas CATEGORY MUNICIPALITY TOTAL I II III Kolasin 1 0 2 3 Podgorica 2 6 32 40 Data: from the National Spatial Plan 2008

Cultural Heritage within the Project Area - In addition to the above table, the Cultural Heritage Report (CHR) from the local data consultant has managed to identify the following cultural and historical monuments that lie within the DSP Project Area. Not all of them are scheduled.

1. Archaeological sites: Potkapina - Bioče , Vruća - Pećina , Other natural shelters (#3, 4, 5, 6) 2. Memorial Constructions: Morača , Monastery, Duga Monastery and 24 other churches 3. Secular constructions: Kaluđerski Bridge on Morača and Prince Danilov Bridge on Mrtvici

Archaeological Sites: Potkapina Bioče This archaeological site has been systematically excavated over several years. Mainly the site belongs to the Mousterian period (Middle Palaeolithic - between 70.000 and 40.000 BP - before present). Artefacts (some stone tools) from the cultural deposits show some similarities to the more famous site Crvena Stijena (red cliff, situated 30 km from Nikšić, near Petrovići). The SEA Consultant understands that this cave near Bioče will not be directly impacted by the DSP for HPPs.

Vruća Pećina This site was subject to some minor excavations in 1988 and 1999. Layers depicting occupancy from the Stone Age (Mesolithic and Neolithic) were detected. This site will also not be directly impacted by the DSP.

Other Natural Shelters The CHR from the local data consultant also describes several locations from the lower and middle part of the Morača canyon. Several small caves of rock shelters, with small openings usually facing south west were seen, indicating the possibility that some of them during different times in pre-history served as temporary or permanent habitats for early man. Several of these rock shelters lie on the eastern river bank very near to river level at Ošlja, Poljana and Lipica. Apart from these in the canyon of the DSP project area there are also some caves at Brštanica, Rasadnica, and Dugačka, but above the level of inundation. Above Duga village and near to Duga monastery there are also traces of early man’s presence being found but again these are above the levels of inundation.

Memorial Constructions: Morača Monastery - The Morača monastery was built in 1251-52 by Stefan, Vukan`s son and the grandson of Stefan Nemanja, founder of the Serbian medieval dynasty. At the end of the fifteenth century the monastery was abandoned and partly ruined. Principal values for the monastery are:

• The Greek Orthodox and Romanesque architecture. • Sculptures in the main church. • The thirteenth century frescoes. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 67

• Sixteenth and seventeenth century wall paintings. • The 17th and 18th century collections of icons and • The Church of St. Nicolas dating from 1635.

Morača Monastery is regarded as a monument of high value (both national and local). Frequently it is mentioned as one of the most important cultural heritage objects in Montenegro. 26

In recent times, Morača Monastery has experienced degradation of its frescos and icons due to inappropriate preventative maintenance works. Photo 4: Morača Monastery

Photo 5: Morača Monastery with “Svetigora” Waterfall Photo 6: Morača Monastery - Frescos

Duga Monastery The Monastery is named by the nearby village Duga. No historical data is recorded on the exact age of the Monastery. The church is dedicated to Lady Uspenje. This church was erected in 1755 on the foundation on an earlier church. It is constructed with semicircular apses. The interior of the Monastery is simple, but decorated with “vivid” frescos. The relatively high value of cultural heritage of Duga Monastery is explained by its position in political history.

Churches

26 The Morača Monastery - The official museum guide, 2003. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 68

The CHR also describes 24 churches in the project area, mostly with simple architecture, without any particularly significant value of art. Principally, these buildings represent small rural churches, mainly built in the be- ginning of the twentieth century.

Secular Constructions: The secular structures in the project area essentially comprise of two bridges: Kaluđerski (Monks) Bridge at Morači (Photo 7) - This old stone bridge is located downstream from Morača Monastery. It is claimed to be dated to 1842, but there are indications that the bridge was constructed much earlier (between 1722 and 1723). – This bridge will be lost by the inundation.

Prince Danilov Bridge at Mrtvica (Photo 8) this was constructed by Prince Danilov in 1858. It is an ordin- ary two curved bridge with a central pillar. – This bridge will be lost by the inundation

Photo 7: Kaluđerski (Monks) Bridge at Morača Photo 8: Prince Danilov Bridge at Mrtivica Goals and Measures for protection of cultural monuments 27 Bearing in mind the state of cultural heritage due to past events, it is necessary to take appropriate measures to insure the quality of documentation of cultural heritage in a contemporary sense. Furthermore, it is necessary to create the conditions for undertaking the necessary research of monuments, and archaeological sites in particular that would provide comprehensive protection of cultural heritage.

The SEA Consultant believes from his prognoses and predictions that there is substantial probability to prove that archaeological remains from different periods are present on several of the river banks upstream from Podgorica.

The SEA Consultant also believes that older stone constructions and stone heaps that are visible along the Morača River upstream from Podgorica could belong to the Bronze Age and Iron Age periods (See Photo 9)

It is therefore very important that a thorough survey of the river banks that will be inundated in the Morača River near Zlatica and Milunovici sites is undertaken prior to inundation to ensure there is no inestimable loss of important archaeological resources.

27 Detailed Spatial Plan 2009 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 69

Photo 9: Cairns of unknown age at Dugi Laz - Morača Cultural heritage of modern times During the field reconnaissance of the project area it was observed among others: • Several graveyards of different age, • Several old wooden buildings and stone buildings of some heritage value (some on them dating from 18th century – see Photo 10). • Stone bridges, suspension bridges and old roads of average value • Different cultural landscapes of varying value

Photo 10: Kosetine - Old Farm Building of unknown age Conclusion The knowledge of the important cultural heritage monuments in the Project Area is relatively well documented.

It is, however, important to plan prior to construction for more systematic documentation and registration in the areas that are going to be inundated or building/structures that are to be demolished. There is need for more archaeological surveys and investigations prior to inundation.

There is also a need for more systematic documentation on buildings, structures and other monuments from modern times. Photo 11: Mirocevici - Example of cultural landscape

3.3.14 Landscape Details on the existing landscape in the project area have been obtained from a report prepared by the local data consultant28.

The National Spatial Plan for Montenegro separates the country into landscape types and landscape units based on an analysis of bio-geographical and environmental factors.

Landscape types - There are ten landscape types in Montenegro that can be recognised and are shown below. Those types shown in italics are highlighted as they occur within the DSP Project Area. i) East-Mediterranean vi) hilly-silicate ii) lower sub-Mediterranean vii) mezophile (relating to biotopes), iii) Mediterranean-flysh viii) mountainous, iv) flat land-swampy ix) high mountainous and v) higher sub-Mediterranean x) anthropogenic

Landscape Units - Identification of landscape units takes into account natural spatial characteristics as well as the effects of human presence in the area. Hence in Montenegro 21 basic landscape units are recognisable with those in italics relating to the DSP area.

28 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 70

1. Boka Kotorska Bay incl peninsula Lustica 12. Cijevna Canyon 2. Coastal area with Bay of Buljarica 13. Tara River Valley 3. Tivatska Solila 14. Durmitor and Sinjajevina 4. Ulcinj area dunes and Ada Island 15. Piva area 5. Bojana Valley, Zogajsko Mud, Solana Ulcinj and Šasko Lake 16. Pljevlja Plateau 6. Mountain massifs of Orjen, Lovćen and Rumija 17. Polimlje; 7. Karst Plateau of western Montenegro 18. Rožaje area 8. Skadar Lake area 19. Prokletije Massif 9. Zeta- Bjelopavlići Plain 20. Bjelasica 10. Nikšić Field 21. Komovi. 11.Canyon valleys in Morača watershed

The above division includes also some smaller landscape units, mostly including vulnerable ecosystems with outstanding specific features and identity. The SEA Project Area is divided into two landscape units Canyon valleys in Morača watershed and Skadar lake area which are shown in italics.

Canyon valleys of Morača watershed represent mountainous area with deep canyons made by river Morača, Mrtvica, Mala Rijeka and some other smaller tributaries (Photo 12). Unique landscape characteristics of this area is reflected in the impressive and dramatically different natural elements: clear blue water in the rivers and the surrounding of stony grey ridges of sharp mountain peaks (i.e. Lola - 2157 m, Kapa -Moračka - 2227 m, Stožac - 1892 m, Maganik - 2139 m, Prekornica -1926 m, Žijovo - 2182 m). In terms of vegetation cover, it is possible to separate the mosaic landscape elements of vegetation on the river banks (willows), bare rocky surface with isolated trees (yew (Taxus baccata) and munika tree (Pinus heldreichii)), through wider areas of munika forest in the Maganik and Prekornica area, highland pastures, spruce and silver fir forests, lush mountain beech forests, Italian oak and Turkey oak forests, and areas covered with smaller trees and bushes (Macedonian oak and hop-hornbeam) Photo 12: Morača Valley In the wider area on the slopes of Žijova - Bukumirsko there are also some smaller glacier lakes, larger lakes in the area are Rikavačko Lake, Kapetanov Lake and Lukavica Lake. For the purpose of preparation of the DSP this wide area was subdivided into sub units as follows29:

• Morača river valley from Zlatica to Milunovići • Morača canyon from Milunovići to Melještak (Platije) • Međuriječje area • Morača Monastery area • Upper Morača catchment area • catchment area of river Ibrištica • catchment area of river Mrtvica • Vlahovići, Gornje Rovca and Trmanje area

29 These sub units of landscape are defined in the DSP Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 71

• Lower Morača catchment area • catchment area of river Mala Rijeka and • catchment area of river Kruševička Rijeka

It should also be noted that the area around the Morača Monastery is recognized as a special historic cultural landscape. Stress on the current landscape features in this unit is caused by landslides and erosion processes which are mainly the result of unplanned forest management, building of access roads to the settlements and those needed in forestry.

The SEA Consultant has undertaken an assessment of the existing landscape and the affects that the HPP developments will have on the landscape. This information is contained in Annex 4 of this report.

Skadar Lake area is identified as a separate landscape unit based on the unique appearance in relation to the environment and the exceptional harmony of the natural and cultural heritage. Elements of this characteristic landscape are a large lake surface (the largest in the Balkans), a dynamic shore line with a number of bays, promontories, small rocky islands, rich swamp vegetation, extensive meadows and flooded forests. The northern shore of the Skadar Lake is a huge area under influence of regular floods and so in this part, there is no distinct shore line. This area is also recognized by its rich cultural heritage sites and monuments. The area is protected by law as a national park and is located on the Ramsar List of international importance.

From the aspect of landscape protection any further spatial development for economic improvement, as is proposed by the DSP needs to ensure that diversity of landscape types represented in Montenegro is maintained in line with the principles of sustainable development. Furthermore, the protection of other valuable natural entities with original Mediterranean biodiversity, and preservation of landscape on the Montenegrin coast and in its hinterland such as the Morača Canyon must be assured.

3.4 Socio-Economic 3.4.1 Settlements and Population The majority of the information on settlements and population has been obtained from the DSP and the local data consultant. 30 The DSP focuses on a description of the baseline situation in the DSP Project area. In general the settlements are characterised by being sparsely populated and dependent upon agriculture and forestry, and they form no exception to the general Balkan pattern of concentrating buildings in the valleys, on the plains and close to roads. The DSP makes a distinction between the settlements, grouping them in four categories. Settlements can be found:

a) close to Podgorica, like in the case of Bioče and Ubli; b) in rural areas with a mixed, but predominantly rural economic base, like the areas around the Morača monastery; c) in predominantly rural areas; and d) in areas difficult to access, like those in hills and mountains where forestry and stock-breeding dominate.

The DSP identifies the specific settlements in the DSP Project Area, which covers the area of two municipalities – Podgorica and Kolašin. The names of these settlements are listed in Table 2-1 in Chapter 2.

From the early 1990s the process of emigration from rural areas and centralization of inhabitants and economic activities in urban areas started. This process results in depopulation trends in the rural settlements especially in the northern part of Montenegro and growth of the population in the central region (Podgorica, Nikšić) and even stronger growth in coastal region (Budva, Bar, Herceg Novi). The urbanization rate for the

30 Local Consultant report prepared by HMI Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 72

whole country is 62.8 %, in the Municipality of Podgorica around 83 %, but in Municipality of Kolašin only 30%.

Employment opportunities, education and health care facilities are concentrated in Podgorica and Kolašin and that increases daily (or even weekly) migration from rural areas.

The number of inhabitants in settlements within the Morača catchment area has significantly decreased in the last 15 years. In the above mentioned settlements in the Municipality of Podgorica numbers have dropped by 15.6 % to 1,960 inhabitants in the year 2003. Only few larger settlements are showing a positive trend –i.e. Bioče, Mrke and Ubli.

In settlements in the area of the Municipality of Kolašin the number of inhabitants decreased by 34.3 % to 2,215 inhabitants in the year 2003. All settlements are showing negative trends. Along with trends of depopulation, the trend of ageing population is very strong. The ratio between younger population (0-19 years) and older population (more than 60 years) is 1: 1.79 for the settlements in Podgorica Municipality and 1: 2.22 for the settlements in Kolašin Municipality. Figure 3-25 and Figure 3-26 show this trend for selected settlements.

Kretanje broja stanovnika u selima kolašinske opštine

250

200 Bare Vlahovići 150 Međurečje Mioska 100 Osretci

50 Raška Starče 0 1991 2003

Source: Monstat 2008 Figure 3-25: Population trend in some settlements - Kolasin Municipality

Kretanje broja stanovnika u selima podgoričke opštine

200 Bioče 180 160 Blizna 140 Đurkovići 120 Klopot 100 Lutovo 80 60 Mrke 40 Pelev Brijeg 20 Rijeka Piperska 0 Trmanje 1991 2003

Source: Monstat 2008 Figure 3-26: Population trend in some settlements - Podgorica Municipality For the natural movement of population, records are kept only at the municipal level. In Kolašin within the period 2003-2007 the (average) birth rate was 7.9 ‰ (equivalent to 7.9 births per thousand people), the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 73

mortality rate was 12.7 ‰, resulting in negative natural population growth of - 4.8 ‰. Birth rate in Podgorica in the period 2003-2007 was 15.1 ‰, mortality rate 8.4 ‰ and 6.7 ‰ of natural growth, which is a moderate rate.

However, it should be emphasized that, in rural settlements in the Morača valley, birth rate is certainly much lower than the municipal average while the mortality rate is probably more than the municipal average, resulting in a significantly lower rate of natural population growth, probably negative in these settlements, especially those with strong depopulation trends (i.e. Klopot, Trmanje, Lutovo, Pelev Brijeg).

Lake Skadar Area 31 There are 17 villages within the Skadar Lake National Park area (Montenegro), with their population varying from 6 to 550 people. The population showed a decline in size in the park area in the 1990s, but this trend has reversed in the past years. This is partly due to development activities and the increasing political stability in the region. The migration of people to the lake side has increased the pressure on the coastal zones of the lake. The settlements/ villages in the lake area are not demographically stable. Because of the good road connections with nearby cities like Podgorica, only a small proportion of the population prefers to remain in these settlements. However, in some settlements, such as Krajina and Donji Murici, the population has increased. Set- tlements Virpazar and Rijeka Crnojevica have urban characteristics. In these settlements only 553 inhabitants live, while the majority of inhabitants live in rural settlements.

3.4.2 Human Health In the Morača basin affected by the planned HPP’s altogether 18 people are employed in the health services, according to the statistical data quoted in the DSP. Table 3-21 below provide indications of the overall health care services within the two municipalities from official statistical records (Monstat and Institute for Public Health), but data is not sufficiently broken down to show health details at settlement level. Table 3-21: Comparison of Health Care Services in Kolasin and Podgorica

Monitoring Indicator Kolašin Podgorica Muni- (2007 data) Municipality cipality Health Related Personnel Physicians (doctors) 18 188 Dentists 5 42 Other medical staff 33 351 Sub Total Health care Workers 56 581 Non medical staff 17 115 Total Health Staff 73 696 Hospital beds available No hospital 577 beds No of pharmacies 2 10 Disease and Sickness Intestinal related disease (#cases) 9 286 Respiratory related disease (non flu) (#cases) 92 1718 Sexually transmitted disease (# cases) 0 6 Total Non Flu Infectious diseases 101 2010 Flu related cases 72 2478 Source: Monstat and Institute for Public Health Yearbooks.

There are 2 pharmacies in Kolašin and 10 in Podgorica. There is a general hospital in Podgorica which has 577 beds, but no hospital in Kolašin.

31 Lake Shkoder Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (2006) Royal Haskoning for World Bank Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 74

3.4.3 Education Data on population structure regarding literacy and school education is available only on municipal level. The share of illiterate population is small; in the municipality of Kolašin it represents 2.6% of population and in the municipality of Podgorica 2.2%. In both municipalities the majority of the illiterate population is older than 60 years.

Details of the number of primary and secondary schools in the municipalities of Kolašin and Podgorica municipalities are shown in the following Table 3-22. Table 3-22: Details of Education within Kolasin and Podgorica Municipalities Primary Kolašin Podgorica # of schools 17 56 # classes 68 874 # pupils 1028 21963 male 504 11679 female 524 10284 # of teachers 107 1245

Secondary Kolašin Podgorica # classes 14 345 # pupils 300 9979 male 156 4847 female 144 5132 # of teachers 27 687 Source: Monstat

Kolašin does not have any higher education establishment, but 170 students within higher education were recorded as living within Kolašin. In Podgorica, altogether 6,854 students were recorded as being in higher education.

3.4.4 Employment The employment structure of the Morača basin is, like most of Montenegro, characterised by a strong dependence of extensive and traditional agriculture. As outlined in the DSP, half the population is employed in primary economic activities and the GNP per capita in the valley is under 1,000 Euros, which is low even for Montenegro. 32

The main income source in the basin comes from private farms. The DSP refers to figures from 2003, according to which there were altogether 823 farms (of which 285 in Podgorica and 538 in Kolašin). In all, 555 people were employed in the farms (114 in Podgorica and 441 in Kolašin). That represents almost half of active population in the DSP Project area. This information is provided in Table 3-23 below.

Forestry is poorly developed in the Morača basin. As pointed out in the DSP, the potentials of fishing and fish breeding has not been made use of in the area. Apart from the Morača Monastery and some places to eat along the main road Podgorica-Belgrade, tourism is poorly developed.

Active population employed in sectors like manufacturing, wholesale, retail, transport, storage and communication, is migrating to employment centres (Podgorica, Kolašin) on a daily basis.

32 GDP for Montenegro in 2007 was 5,180 per capita – Source World Bank Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 75

Table 3-23: Employment structure of active population in the DSP Project area Municipality Municipality of Total share Active population in DSP project area of Podgorica Kolašin Agriculture, forestry and fishing 114 441 49.82 % Manufacturing 49 27 6.82 % Electricity, gas and water supply 10 8 1.62 % Wholesale, retail; certain repair 24 16 3.59 % Hotels and restaurants 15 17 2.87 % Transport, storage and communication 49 28 6.91 % Public administ.& defence, comp.soc.sec. 43 30 6.55 % Education 21 28 4.40 % Health 11 7 1.62 % Other social and personal services 50 6 5.03 % Other 57 63 10.77 % Total 443 671 100 % Source: DSP

In Kolašin there were 1591 people registered as employed in 2007. Of this total women accounted for 665 or 41.8% of the total number of employees. In Podgorica, there were a total of 56,118 people employed of which 25, 938 were female which represents 46.2% of the number of employees.

Unemployment 33 The last data on unemployed persons are showing a constant decrease of the total number of unemployed in the whole country. There are 26,918 unemployed persons and this means that the unemployment rate is 10.2 %. Data for the year 2007 (June), when total unemployment rate in Montenegro was 12.6 %, are showing that on the municipal level unemployment rates are very diverse. In Kolašin Municipality unemployment rate was one of the highest, with 28.5 % and in Podgorica Municipality one of the lowest, with 10.4 % as is shown in Table 3-24 below.

Table 3-24: Unemployment rates in Municipalities (June 2007)

Source: Unemployment Agency of Montenegro and Labour force and employment in Montenegro, Employment Agency of Montenegro and Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses, August 2007 3.4.5 Crime In 2007 there were 142 recorded cases of crime in Kolašin of which the majority (45) was for public transport safety offences (presumably speeding/accidents). There were 36 reported cases of robbery (property); 10 crimes related to law and order, 16 to the environment and 15 to life/persons.

33 Employment Agency of Montenegro, Weekly report, 6th July 2009, URL: http://www.zzzcg.org/ Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 76

In Podgorica there were 344 reported cases and again the majority of cases related to public transport safety (71). There were 64 reported cases of robbery; 15 for law and order and 10 related to the environment and 31 to life/persons

During construction work for the HPPs there is a risk that petty crimes may increase in the DSP project area, e.g. theft from the construction works, speeding etc. In addition, construction works imply that the risk of smaller or bigger environmental offenses to nature, landscape or artefacts. The risk of corruption is another and far more serious aspect that is more often associated with large construction works.

3.4.6 Local Economy and Accessibility DSP Project Area Industry - Upstream from the proposed Zlatica HPP as far as the proposed HPP at Andrijevo there is no industrial activities. The areas to be inundated by the HPPs comprise a mixture of thin forests and barren land, grasslands, and cultivated land. Most likely, ownership and compensation issues are complicated and will have to be investigated.

If the HPPs are built, the DSP foresees the possibility of developing additional industries in the Morača catchment between Zlatica and Andrijevo such as bottling of water, increased agro-business (due to better availability of water) and tourism.

Agriculture - Economic activities related to agriculture is dominant in the area covered by the DSP, and particularly so in the areas above the planned hydro-electric station at Andrijevo. Here, the potentials for “ecological” production are good, and the DSP claims water supply will improve as a result of the dams. In particular, wine growing, bee-keeping, fish-breeding and vegetable production have potential.

Forestry - The forest resources in the area are scarce, and are mostly as firewood used by local inhabitants. The DSP makes a prognosis that a very limited role of forestry in the overall pattern of employment in the region. Only 15 people employed out of a total 5336 employed will be in forestry. Fisheries - Fishing activity in the Morača River is very limited and no data is available. The new reservoirs, particularly Andrijevo will significantly increase the potential for fishing as a recreational activity.

Tourism and Recreation Data for hotel occupancy within the two municipalities of Kolasin and Podgorica are available from 2003- 2007. There has been a marked increase in hotel occupancy in Podgorica and Kolasin between 2005 and 2007.

The DSP states that the main tourism at present within the project area is along the main road connecting Podgorica with Kolasin. Morača Monastery being on the main road receives a number of tourists. The DSP plans a very optimistic future for tourism. An increase of some 16,000 beds is foreseen in the area with an employment of 4,000 people connected to the tourism by the year 2020. This seems extremely optimistic when comparing the existing growth. The DSP is not supported with more information on this issue.

Many recreational activities are planned offering facilities for winter and summer activities. Resorts will be developed along the reservoirs offering fishing, sailing, canoeing, rafting and swimming. This will be combined together with a number of picnic and camping sites. Special significance will be provided to Mala Rijeka and Mrtvica Canyons. Plans also include chair lifts (ski lifts in winter) to appreciate views of the canyons, but the DSP does not provide further details of these activities.

Lake Skadar Area Downstream to Skadar Lake the main industrial activities occur around Podgorica, most notably KAP which is currently in a state of semi closure. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 77

The economy of the Skadar Lake region in Montenegro is modest. Main activities are agriculture, including fishery, and tourism. Krajina region is oriented towards agriculture (stock-farming and farming), Crmnica and Riječka nahija region are already in a phase of significant degradation regarding agricultural production. For this region fishery was always the main source of existence, especially for Prevlaka, Dodoše, Žabljak and Vranjina. This relation changed over time, and with decreasing fish stock the common stability of these settlements decreased.

Small scale commuting from the settlements of Krajina and from the Crmnica area, towards Bar, Cetinje and Podgorica occurs, but this is not significant.

Skadar Lake is currently the most utilised for tourism and there are around ten locations offering tourism and eco-tourism (bird watching, wind surfing, walking). These activities are still at an early stage of development and do not generate significant income or employ large numbers of people.

Transport Infrastructure Roads. The main road to Serbia from Podgorica passes through the areas covered by the DSP, and is considered very dangerous, especially in winter. During the last 20 years very little has been done to improve roads. Preparations have begun for improving the roads, for example; the Bar Bolijare Road (4-lane motorway) is planned for construction in the near future. An SEA for this project has recently been completed. This road is of special significance for the Morača valley as it passes through the area. A substantial bridge will be built taking the road across the river just to the north of Bioce. This road has some intersections which are planned to connect settlements in the DSP area.

In addition, the planned HPP construction and resultant reservoir under the DSP will require relocation of several kilometres of the existing road from Podgorica to Belgrade. Furthermore, a number of smaller subsidiary roads are also planned to connect up the settlements that will be isolated due to the reservoirs, especially around the Andrijevo and Zlatica HPP developments (see Chapter 2).

In building the HPPs in the valley leads to increased economic activities in line with what the DSP foresees, the importance of the roads will increase. The DSP has provided a limited number of road bridges crossing the reservoirs especially around Zlatica and Andrijevo. However no consideration appears to have been given to footbridges that may be required to connect settlements with the main centres. This may be very important for example for schoolchildren having to make their way to school.

Rail and Air Traffic. The major rail thoroughfare (Bar - Belgrade-) through the country goes through the Mor- ača river valley, and is considered one of Europe’s most scenic rail journeys. In all, 48 km of the Montenegrin part of the stretch and fives stations are within the area covered by the DSP. In case the dam at Zlatica is built it is envisaged that one of the stations will have to close. The DSP will have no affect on air traffic of other forms of transportation.

3.4.7 Energy Supply and Demand The main energy sources in Montenegro are hydropower and fossil fuel (thermal burning of coal - lignite) which provide electricity, oil derivatives and thermal energy for heating and industry. Electricity makes up a large proportion of energy production.

There are two large hydroelectric plants (HPPs) on the Rivers Perucica and Piva producing peak electricity and a coal fired thermal plant at Pljevlja which provides base load production. Furthermore there are 7 small HPPs which only provide less than 1% of total primary production. \

Hydropower accounts for about 60% of production and the remaining 40% comes from the Pljevlja thermal power plant. Montenegro also has to import substantial amounts of electricity from neighbouring countries. Total electricity generation in Montenegro during 2008 was nearly 2,700 GWh, whilst total demand (including Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 78

transmission/distribution losses) was about 4,600GWh. The deficit of 1,900 GWh was covered by imports from Serbia and BiH.

Industry remains the largest consumer for energy with households being the second largest consumer. The following Table 3-25 compares energy consumptions from 2003 and 2007. As can be seen around 61% of all energy consumed is used by Industry. Table 3-25: Comparison of Energy Consumption by sector 2003 to 2007

Electricity Consumption by Sector 2003 (GWh) % 2007 (GWh) % Industry 2298 60.9 2431 61.7 Construction 4 0.1 7 0.2 Electric Railways 21 0.6 24 0.6 Households 1079 28.6 1128 28.6 Agriculture 31 0.8 28 0.7 Other Customers 342 9.1 320 8.1 Total 3775 100 3938 100 Source: Monstat Future Demand Predicting future electricity demand in Montenegro is complicated by the uncertain future of the KAP aluminium smelter. Presently, about 40% of all energy consumed in Montenegro is used by KAP, but as there is expected to be a decline in the activity of KAP (or even closure) then the current electricity deficit that exists would be eliminated. This therefore implies that use of energy from Morača HPPs could be an important source of energy export and the financial impact on Morača HPPs by KAP closure/semi closure would be limited.

Montenegro is also expected to be an important player in the energy market of the Balkan region. Montenegro is a signatory to the “Treaty Establishing the Energy Community” which entered into force on 1 July 2006. . The treaty commits the signatories to create a regional market to be integrated with the European electricity market by 2015.

Montenegro therefore needs to have a more open market orientated power economy although some limited exposure to this already applies with a power purchase agreement with Serbia, where Montenegro exports peak power (hydropower from Piva HPP) to Serbia and imports base load power (fossil fuel generated power) from Serbia. However, market openness is expected to be much more developed by the time the Morača HPPs come on stream.

The most important regional countries as a potential market for Morača HPPs when on stream are likely to be Bosnia Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania and Kosovo. Furthermore other countries such as Greece and Bulgaria can also be considered.

Transmission System The transmission system consists of 400 kV lines, 220 kV lines, and 110 kV lines which connect to the main centres and also to neighbouring countries.

The network is old and urgently in need of rehabilitation. Hence substantial investment is required in the system, as well as in generation capacity. A new 400kV power line between Podgorica, Montenegro and Tirana, Albania is planned. Figure 3-27 shows the existing transmission network for Montenegro.

The new HPPs at Morača will need to have their own network to connect to the national grid (see Chapter 2). These routes of power lines will obviously create some concerns for human health (living under the power corridors) to land take for pylons and excavation/clearing of access routes for the corridors and pylon construction. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 79

Source: EPCG (2009)

Figure 3-27: Transmission Network for Montenegro Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 80

4 RISKS, PROBLEM AREAS AND THEIR IMPACTS

This chapter combines the requirements of SEA Law Article 15, clauses 3 and 4. Clause 3 stipulates that the areas that are likely to be affected by significant risk should be acknowledged and the characteristics of the environment in such areas to be identified. In addition clause 4 requires identification of existing problems with respect of the environment in connection with the DSP for HPPs, in particular relating to areas of special significance for the environment, such as habitats of wildlife plant and animal species from the aspect of their preservation, in particular protected areas and national parks.

A distinction can be made between the risks and problems that can have an impact on the SEA project area: risks are external factors that cannot be influenced on, while problems are the factors that are internal to the DSP and can therefore be mitigated with appropriate measures and action.

4.1 Risks and Problem Areas

Risk and problem areas can therefore be defined as areas that can be affected by events caused by (external) risk factors and (internal) problems that may arise because they are not effectively mitigated.

This adds an important dimension to understanding how, and to what extent, a project may impact on people’s living conditions and welfare and the environment as a whole. It is therefore very important that all stakeholders including the public have the opportunity to participate in decisions that could have a major effect on their lives and livelihoods. In this way, equitable outcomes will be achieved in the decision making process.

The ten DDZs constitute the main areas of risks and are the most problematic in terms of potential impacts of the DSP. People living within the DDZs of the DSP boundary are likely to realise the most significant risks associated with the Project. However, the areas of potential risks extend downstream from the DSP area within the confines of the Morača River valley, including the city of Podgorica and its peri-urban surrounds; the flood plain surrounding Skadar Lake, which is intensively developed; and finally the lake itself and its outflow to the Adriatic Sea via the Bojana River.

4.2 Risk Factors and Risk Areas

The core (external and primary) risk factors important for the construction and operation of the HPPs can be summarised as follows:

• Earthquake • Climate Change • Natural Changes in River Flow Regime • Cheaper Energy Alternatives

Risk such as earthquake has a type of high intensity but with a short duration. Similarly, the effects of climate change could be a flash flood, leading to landslide, which are also high intensity and short duration in nature. However, most of the risks can be considered to be of lower intensity and longer duration. While the first three risks shown above are natural, the last one is an economic risk and depends on the energy market and its regulation.

The above listed primary factors have secondary issues that can be considered knock on effects, such as inundation of the areas below the dam. The final outcomes of these knock on effects can be a combination of:

• Loss of Life and Property • Economic Loss • Loss in Biodiversity and landscape diversity Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 81

• Loss of cultural heritage • Loss of development and employment • The HPPs becoming uneconomic

It must be stressed that dam failures in more recent times are a very rare occurrence. Dams are well designed to withstand major earthquakes and other natural disasters. When they do fail, they are almost exclusively a result of inadequate maintenance during operation. Nonetheless, it is important that the risk for such occurrences is properly assessed. History has shown that dam failure can be induced by combinations of poor maintenance during operation combined with landslides as a result of earthquakes or from an excessive amount of rainfall associated with climate change.

When large dam projects are developed, the assumption is that river flows in the future (including total runoff and severe floods) will be much like those that have occurred in the past and designs are made with historical time series in mind. In some cases the historical time series of hydrological data are too short and may not re- flect cyclical phenomena. Climate change has also introduced another level of uncertainty about changing flows within the life span of most dams.

Hence, safety of large dams is also affected by changes in the magnitude or frequency of extreme precipitation events. Such events are highly uncertain, but climate change is expected to lead (and perhaps already has led) to larger and more frequent extreme precipitation events being experienced. Hence, spillways need to be over designed to mitigate against such occurrences as a result.

Climate change could also act in reverse in that excessive drought periods may cause a naturally lower flow regime in the Morača River for instance, which could see a reduction in the Skadar Lake levels that would affect the economy of tourism and have an effect on fishing etc. Furthermore, a lower flow regime caused by climate change (i.e. excessive drought) could render the HPPs uneconomic due to enforced reductions in power generating capacity.

Development of cheaper energy alternatives in the future with improved technology could also render the HPPs on Morača uneconomic, which in turn could lead to a loss of employment in the local area.

The areas that are at risk due to the potential impact of these risk factors on the four HPPs are:

• The immediate area of 10 DDZ, • The entire area downstream of the HPPs, and • The area of Skadar Lake.

The knock-on effects and their consequences in the affected areas can have secondary and tertiary knock-on effects, impacting the environment, the welfare and economy which may extend beyond national boundaries.

The risks can be mitigated by appropriate HPP design, construction and adequate maintenance during operation as well as efficient integration of the HPPs in the distribution grid. As a result, mitigation measures and quality control of the services have to be effectively undertaken.

4.3 Key Problems

The core (internal) problems associated with the construction and operation of the HPPs can be summarised as follows:

• Dam construction • Inundation by Reservoir • Dam and Reservoir management Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 82

Like risk factors, the effects of these key problems will mainly affect the following areas:

• The area of 10 DDZ, • The entire area downstream of the HPPs, • The area of Skadar Lake.

The inundations by reservoirs will also lead to a change in the flow regime of the Morača River which will in turn lead to small changes in Skadar Lake levels which could lead to a loss in biodiversity.

The presence of the reservoirs (especially Andrijevo) could affect the microclimate, which may in turn stress cultural heritage in terms of higher levels of humidity on the frescos associated with Morača Monastery. This in turn could affect tourism which could ultimately leads to economic loss and reduction in employment opportunities.

Similarly to risk factors, the risks can be mitigated by appropriate HPP design, construction and adequate maintenance during the operations as well as efficient integration of the HPPs in the distribution grid. As a result mitigation measures and quality control of the services have to be undertaken.

4.4 Problems and their Impacts

Section 4.3 above highlights the affected areas directly influenced by the development as well as indirectly the Morača River valley downstream to Lake Skadar. The following sections provide indications of the environmental characteristics of these affected areas, associated problems and their potential impacts. The following are included:

• Key impacts on Biodiversity • Impacts on the Hydrology • Impacts on the Water Quality • Impacts on Cultural Heritage • Geology-Hydrology Issues • Impact on Landscape

4.4.1 Key impacts on Biodiversity The key impacts on biodiversity can be summarized as follows:

Direct impact through habitat destruction • At the area of inundation, the habitat of plant species and terrestrial animal species will be destroyed. This is more critical for the animal species with low mobility and plant species. In some cases, a suitable habitat is not available in the vicinity for the species to be able to migrate. This is especially so in the case of plant species in the canyons that are relict from tertiary flora and mostly have high level of endemism (e.g. Ramonda serbica, Iris illyrica, Edraiantho-Dianthetum Nicolai, Campanula pyramidalis). • At the banks of the reservoirs, rapid fluctuations of water level may result in erosion of the surrounding land areas. Such fluctuations will also be a challenge for the limnic zone of the reservoirs, making it difficult for plants to establish – and therefore also reducing the likelihood of a healthy fish population in the new reservoirs. • At the area below the dams, the river flow will at some times be less than at present, which may cause siltation at the riverbed, but during peak operation the water may also flow faster so that the sand and gravel on the riverbed will be washed downstream. Both siltation and erosion of the riverbed may deplete invertebrate populations downstream from the dams, Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 83

• Mortality of larger aquatic organisms, such as fish on collision with turbines.

Indirect impact on species and habitats through habitat changes • Without the fish ladders at the dams, migration routes of salmonid species will be blocked. This could have significant impacts on fish population and their dynamics, also due to genetic variability depletion through “bottleneck effect” due to separation of population into several sub-populations. This might be expected for the trout species (Salmo farioides, Salmo marmoratus, Salmo trutta, possibly also Salmo dentex), but also for some cyprinid species (Leuciscus cephalus albus, Leuciscus souffia montenegrinus), as well as eels and lampreys. • Water dynamics will change leading to changed turbidity, temperature and consequently oxygen content. The reservoirs can have lake-like conditions, therefore it can be expected that cyprinid fish populations (e.g. Leuciscus souffia montenegrinus) would increase and trout populations (especially marble trout Salmo marmoratus which is abundant in middle stream of Morača) decrease. This could be particularly so in the 3 lower reservoirs; for the section of Morača above Andrijevo there is lack of data on cyprinids; in any case, it could happen that cyprinids could be introduced artificially. • Extent of wetlands along Skadar Lake most probably will decrease as there will be less oscillation in the water levels. Consequently, it is likely that the species strictly limited to wetland/flooded areas in any parts of their lifecycle (e.g. for spawning, such as carp) may decrease in population size.

Indirect impacts on species through changes in food web • Due to changes in water dynamics of Skadar Lake, algal blooms might occur, decreasing levels of oxygen and possibly resulting in anoxia (lack or absence of oxygen) at some pockets of the lake bottom. The risk for the algae to carry toxic substances increase with increasing eutrophication of the lake. • Changes in water dynamics, sedimentation and oxygen content will affect algae and invertebrates, causing changes in the food chain. Changes are likely to occur in Skadar Lake, too, because of changed algae populations; for example, change in algae composition might affect survival rate of the larvae of Alburnus alburnus alborella that rely on the algae for food. In the reservoirs, diversity of invertebrates might decrease due to siltation. All of this his might have a knock-on effect not only on their predators, but also on higher levels of food chain, e.g. birds of prey, herons, terns, cormorants.

Due to lack of data or their inconsistency it is difficult to show directly which species and/or habitats are going to be affected to such extent that their impact could be estimated in terms of population size or threat of extinc- tion. However, we can estimate on the basis of data and experience that the most affected will probably be:

• The flora and fauna of the canyon cliffs at the reservoir sites, among other some endemic plant species that are relicts of the Ice Age flora and therefore rare, and birds nesting in the area, • Salmonid fish species in Morača river, with knock on effect of genetic depletion of the species in Morača and its tributaries (not only in upper catchment, but also e.g. Zeta), • Invertebrate species of the river bottom downstream of the reservoir, with knock-on effect on fish populations, • Wetland habitats in the Skadar lake area, as the decrease in fluctuations of water level will decrease the wetland area; as shown in the next section on hydrology, at the moment the annual Skadar Lake water level variations cause variations in lake area of about 150 km2, but this area might substantially decrease This might have a knock-on effect on the lake fish, populations of amphibians and consequently bird populations in the area. It is likely that the function of the Skadar Lake as a resting and wintering point of migratory bird species will be affected, but it is difficult to predict to what extent.

To sum up, the biodiversity of the SEA project area is likely to be affected and although it cannot be estimated to what degree, a precautionary principle should be taken. The impact on biodiversity could show even at the international level by impacting on the extent of wetland habitats and migratory patterns of birds in the Skadar Lake area, thus affecting its importance as a Ramsar site and as a Transboundary National Park. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 84

4.4.2 Impacts on the Hydrology A thorough understanding of the hydrological conditions of the entire catchment area is of great importance for this SEA, amongst others because the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of the suggested river regulations are closely linked to the water discharges in the actual project area, the River Morača and the water levels and throughflow in Lake Skadar. The evaluation of risks has been divided into the following areas:

• The detailed development zones (DDZs) which will be inundated (10 DDZ covering 4 dams). • The Morača catchment; • The Skadar lake area including transboundary areas on outflow of Bojana to Adriatic.

It is very clear that the hydrology of the above three areas will change as a result of the Morača HPP development. This change can have positive and negative effects on other interrelated factors. For example, positive effects could include improved water quality during the summer, better flood control and improved water supply for irrigation practices and for tourism during the summer etc. However the change in the hydrology could also cause some negative effects primarily on the flora and fauna. It is important to be aware that construction of dams anywhere in the world will negatively influence the continuum of flow. This is a very important principle of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). This concept is linked to the hydro morphological quality elements of the WFD. Thus any dam construction will, according to the Directive, change a water body to a worse condition than before. Taking this principle in mind, it is considered that the HPP for Morača will have a negative impact on the hydro morphological quality elements. Impacts on Hydrology at the DDZs

Characteristics of the flow in the upper parts of Morača River were given in Chapter 3. If the regulation is carried out as planned, the flow at Pernica will be used to fill up the Andrijevo reservoir. The average annual flow here is about 26m3/s, which corresponds to an annual water volume of 835 million m3. The volume of the proposed reservoir at Andrijevo is given as 304 million m3 (Table 4-26) and the time to fill up the reservoir should therefore not be long. The combined volume of all four reservoirs is about million 340 m3. However, it will be important to maintain a minimum flow in the river during the filling of the reservoirs. In addition, continuous release of minimum flow must be ensured during the operation of the power scheme. This is often done by setting the flow to 5-10 % of the mean flow. Mean and minimum flows for Morača at Zlatica and at Pernica for the period 1983-2002 are shown per month in Table 4-27, as well as the 10% flow of the mean flow. If 10% is released during a winter period with average flow, the dams can be filled in about 4-5 months. Table 4-26: Planned volumes of reservoirs in Upper Morača River.

Reservoir: ANDRIJEVO RASLOVICI MILUNOVICI ZLATICA

Volume in m3 *106 304 11.3 9.9 16

Table 4-27: The mean, minimum and 10% of mean flows at Zlatica and Pernica for the period 1983-2002 Station Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Zlatica mean flow 67.2 61.3 63.0 103.2 86.8 35.5 8.1 5.1 32.7 51.7 101.4 89.5 Zlatica minimum flow 6.0 4.0 20.9 61.1 28.9 6.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 1.0 14.8 15.5 10% of mean flow at Zlatica 7 6 6 10 9 4 1 0.5 3 5 10 9 Pernica mean flow 21.9 20.4 24.1 46.2 50.4 21.2 7.0 5.6 17.8 24.8 42.7 35.6 Pernica minimum flow 4.2 3.5 6.6 25.4 13.1 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.5 2.6 8.8 7.2 Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 85

Station Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 10% of mean flow at Pernica 2.2 2.0 2.4 4.6 5.0 2.1 0.7 0.6 1.8 2.5 4.3 3.6 Available for filling reservoirs and production 19.7 18.4 21.7 41.6 45.3 19.1 6.3 5.1 16.0 22.3 38.5 32.0 Note: All values in m3/s.

If the discharge available for filling reservoirs and production (lowest row in the table) is converted to cubic meters of water, the total amount over the year will be about 750 mill m3. In other words, more than twice the amount of what the reservoirs in fact can sustain.

It is recommended that before the EIA is carried out, a thorough hydrological report regarding the technical operation of the reservoirs is produced. The Draft Technical and Economic Consultant’s report to IFC34 does not simulate the flow out of the reservoirs, but they have simulated the reservoir water levels of Andrijevo Reservoir at maximum firm energy production and maximum total energy production (see Figures 3-18 and 3- 19 of that report). For the firm maximum energy, the water levels will change between about 210 and 285 masl, an amplitude of 75 meters. If this is done rapidly then there will be a high risk of erosion along the reservoirs.

Although the operational regime for the dams has yet to be agreed, it is envisaged that the power plants will cover peak energy demand for 75% of the time and base load energy demand for 25% .

If the hydropower company will operate the dams with daily peaking (low flow during nights and high flows during daytime), then this additional stress on the biology must be accounted for.

Moog (2006)35 studied the effects of such peaking operations within hydropower plants on the fish fauna and benthic invertebrates of several Austrian rivers. He found that such artificial flow fluctuations (caused by daily peaking) generally disturbed a long section of a given river. Within all the river sections investigated, a breakdown of the benthic invertebrate biomass of between 75 and 95% was observed within the first few kilometres of river length. Furthermore, a reduction of between 40 and 60% of biomass compared with undisturbed areas could be detected within the following 20-40 km. The reduction of the fish fauna was within the same order of magnitude and correlated well with the amplitude of the flow fluctuations. Since this study was done for several rivers it is likely that the results can be generalised for other rivers including Balkan rivers such as the River Morača. This may therefore imply that peaking operations in River Morača which are planned could have adverse effects on fauna and most likely also on stakeholders and socio-economic interests along the river.

Consequently, the power plants at Morača should consider limiting their daily peaking operations at certain times of the year to comply with future findings of the needs of water flow conditions of the biota (and possibly also by the stakeholders)."

The main hydrological conclusions in this zone can thus be summarised as follows:

• The river will be converted into one large reservoir and three smaller. The hydrological continuum will be broken. • The combined volume of all four reservoirs is about million 340 m3 which is less than half of the volume of water passing by the hydrological station in Pernica. It will be important to maintain a minimum flow in the river during the filling of the dams. • The water levels in the Andrijevo Reservoir may fluctuate with an amplitude of about 75 meters

34 Poyry – Technical and Economic Consultancy for Morača Hydro Power Plants (Draft Report) to IFC Sept 2009 35 Moog, O. (2006), "Quantification of daily peak hydropower effects on aquatic fauna and management to minimize environmental impacts", Department of Hydrobiology, State University of Agriculture, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 86

• The three downstream reservoirs will be operated as run-of-river schemes and the main area of interest if therefore the Andrijevo Reservoir.

Impacts on hydrology for the larger catchment area As shown in Chapter 3, the flow at Zlatica accounts for less than half of the total flow at Podgorica. For the maximum flow values, Zlatica constituted about 47 % on average of the flow in Podgorica; for the mean values Zlatica constituted about 40% whereas for the minimum values Zlatica only constituted 27 % of the flow at Podgorica. The relative input of Zlatica’s flow to the river system was usually greatest in the month of May, but there are clear variations between the months.

In addition, River Cijevna is entering downstream of Podgorica again. According to the calculations done for the water balance of Lake Skadar, this river contributes 15 % of the total flow into Lake Skadar.

The planned water flow from the hydropower system is not known. In order to simulate the consequences of a changed flow pattern on Lake Skadar water levels, some assumptions had to be made. These assumptions include:

• The flow from the finalised system, after all reservoirs have been filled up, will in total equal the present flow (no correction for evaporation or transfers from one year to the next are done). • The new flow will be more equal from month to month than the present flow. • The total volume of the regulation can, due to the volumes of the reservoir, not exceed 300 mill m3.

The dataset for the period 1983-2002 was used, as this period has monthly data from all stations. The actual mean monthly flow and an assumed flow during regulation in the Upper Morača at Zlatica is given in Table 4- 28. The total volume of the collected water in winter is about 290 mill m3, and this is the volume that is released during summer. The mean monthly flow in Morača at Podgorica is based on actual values, and the reduction of flow in Morača at Zlatica is assumed to be equal to the reduction at Podgorica. The last row gives the simulated flow in Podgorica when using simulated flow in Upper Morača. Figure 4-28 illustrates the unregulated and regulated mean monthly flows for Morača at Zlatica and at Podgorica. Table 4-28: Overview of mean monthly flow at two stations in the Morača

Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Morača at Zlat- ica mean flow m3/s 67.2 61.3 63.0 103.2 86.8 35.5 8.1 5.1 32.7 51.7 101.4 89.5 59 Assumed changes in flow m3/s due to regulation -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -30.0 -10.0 30.0 40.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 -20.0 -20.0 0 106m3 Volume change -26.3 -26.3 -26.3 -78.8 -26.3 78.8 105.1 78.8 26.3 0.0 -52.5 -52.5 Morača at Zlat- ica regulated m3/s 57.2 51.3 53.0 73.2 76.8 65.5 48.1 35.1 42.7 51.7 81.4 69.5 59 Morača at Podgorica mean m3/s 173.4 166.9 157.8 233.4 161.4 74.7 28.8 21.5 76.0 121.6 235.4 228.5 140 Morača at Podgorica regu- m3/s lated 163.4 156.9 147.8 203.4 151.4 104.7 68.8 51.5 86.0 121.6 215.4 208.5 140 Note: both for actual flow and for simulated. It is stressed that simulations may not correspond to water flow in the regulated river system Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 87

Simulation of change with regulation

250 Moraca at Zlatica not regulated 200 Moraca at Podgorica not 150 regulated s / 3 Moraca at Zlatica m 100 regulated (sim)

Moraca at 50 podgorica regulated (sim)

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Note: It is stressed that the simulations may not correspond to the water flow in the regulated river system. Mean for 1983-2002 Figure 4-28: Monthly average flows at Zlatica and Podgorica for actual values and simulated flow.

Thus, the main hydrological conclusions for this zone may be summarised as follows: • There are changes in flow per season in the river between Zlatica and the outlet in Skadar Lake. • The extent of this change will depend on how the dams are operated, but it must not be forgotten that the reservoirs are rather small as compared with the flow at Pernica, and it is therefore not possible to hold back more water than what the reservoirs can contain. • The annual variations in riverine water discharges are rather large, with high water discharges during winter and low in summer. • Increase in the summer flow will be positive as it will dilute pollution in the river. The reduced flow in winter may help decrease the highest floods and therefore reduce risk of damage from floods. Impacts on hydrology for downstream sites As shown in Chapter 3, the influence of River Morača for water levels in Skadar Lake is believed to be much less than the influence of the Drim system.

A demonstration of the poor correlation is done below: The correlation formula shown in Figure 3-13 of Chapter 3 gave the following relationship between water levels and flow (Equation 4.1):

Water level in Skadar = (0.0055*water discharge in Morača at Podgorica) + 5.4345 Eq 4.1

If water levels in Skadar Lake are calculated based on this equation, they become very different from the actual levels, cf. Table 4-29 and Figure 4-29. Thus the following can be concluded:

• The correlation between water flow in Morača and water levels in Skadar are poor; • If the correlation equation (Equation 4.1) is used in order to simulate water levels from present-day water flow in Morača, the resulting simulated water levels are very poorly mimicking the actual levels. The differences are up to one metre. • Consequently, use of this correlation to describe the effects on any changes in water flow in the Morača is not readily recommended, as the result will be inaccurate. • This implies therefore, that with the presently available hydrological data, we cannot simulate the consequences of the planned hydropower plants for the water levels of the Skadar Lake. Table 4-29: Unregulated (natural) and simulated water levels (in m asl) in Lake Skadar. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 88

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Natural levels (at Plavnica) 6.83 6.59 6.49 6.60 6.52 6.06 5.57 5.24 5.33 5.84 6.41 6.89 Simulated natural levels (based on Equation 4.1) 5.80 5.77 5.78 6.00 5.91 5.63 5.48 5.46 5.61 5.72 5.99 5.93

Mean monthly water levels in Skadar Lake

7.00 Actual 6.80 Simulated 6.60 6.40

l 6.20 s a

r 6.00 e t e

m 5.80 5.60 5.40 5.20 5.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Data from the years 1983-2002. It is stressed that the simulations may not correspond to the water flow in the regulated river system. Figure 4-29: Actual and simulated water levels in Lake Skadar based on the correlation between water level in Skadar Lake and water discharge in Morača as measured at Podgorica.

As outlined in Chapter 3, it is obvious that the hydrology of the entire system of the Skadar Lake with its tributaries and its outflow river which, again, is linked to the larger Drim River system is very complex and should be studied in more detail. The annual variations in water level in Lake Skadar are large (see chapter 3), and these water level variations cause the lake surface area to vary between about 353-500 km2 – a variation of about 150 km2. This constitutes the area that is inundated regularly and therefore the wetlands that have given the lake its Ramsar status. Less fluctuations of the water level may therefore mean a reduction of the wetland areas, and such reductions could change the ecology of the lake and its wetlands. The question, thus, is to which extent the 150 km2 of wetland areas will be reduced due to the changes in water flow in Morača? Whereas the effect on water levels in Lake Skadar are somewhat unclear, they are not believed by the SEA team to be of alarming importance; refer to the simulated water flow changes in Figure 4-28. It is nevertheless recommended that this issue is revisited when improved data on hydrology can be produced, and this should therefore be included in the more detailed EIA prior to any development.

There may also be an important effect on the throughflow of water in the lake. This throughflow is important for the lake as it is believed to be an important reason why the lake has not become eutrophic. The extent of this hydrological change will of course depend largely on the flow from the hydropower scheme. Most likely, however, the flow will be larger during the summer than during winter, and this should be an advantage for the eutrophication situation, as one would get higher throughflow during the growing season.

Thus, the hydrological conclusions on this zone are as follows:

• Water levels in the lake correspond poorly to water discharges in Morača. This is partly due to a delay in the system, since water level in the lake increases some time after the high flows in the Morača. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 89

• The correlations are better with the outlet river, Bojana at Fraskanjel, which implies that the water level in Skadar is closely linked to the water level of the outflow river. Indirectly, this also suggests that the lake level depends on the water flow variations of the Drim River system. • The Upper Morača (where the hydropower plants are planned) only contributes about 21 % of the total flow into Skadar Lake. The reservoirs’ capacity for storing water is not large as compared to the water flow, and most years it is assumed that the changes in water level of the lake will be relatively small as a consequence of the hydropower scheme. This issue should, however, be more thoroughly investigated when better datasets on hydrology can be produced. • There will be some changes in throughflow in the lake, probably with higher flow through the lake during summer and lower during the winter season. This should be an advantage for water quality as high nutrient and bacteria inputs in summertime will be better diluted.

A thorough hydrological analysis of the entire system is highly recommended. The on-going study financed by GEF/the World Bank should shed more light on this matter and the results from their study together with more analysis of data are recommended to be the basis for the EIA of the proposed development.

It should also be noted that if the hydropower companies will operate the dams with daily peaking (low flow during nights and high flows during daytime), higher stress on the biology must be expected in all three zones. The proposed operation of the dams and the effects of daily peaking operations should be closely looked at during the EIA.

Suggestions for mitigation measures, including improved data coverage are contained in Chapter 7.

4.4.3 Impacts on Water Quality: Zone 1: The DDZs which will be inundated (10 DDZ covering 4 dams). • The water quality in the dam areas is assumed to be relatively good, and there are no foreseen problems on water quality by constructing the dams. Vegetation should be removed prior to filling the dams in order to avoid high organic matter in the reservoirs.

Zone 2. Effects on Water Quality in the Morača catchment; • Reduced flow during the winter season may result in reduced transport of sediments and substances transported associated with particles, such as phosphorus and heavy metals. • This, again, may result in increased sedimentation of particles, phosphorus and metals along the river bed in winter. However, apart from in the reservoirs, the remaining flow in the river is assumed to be strong enough to be able to transport most of the particles downstream. • Increased flow in summer will probably improve the water quality of the river during summer, due to dilution. The present high concentrations of faecal bacteria could therefore be reduced. It is assumed that inhabitants and stakeholder along the river could benefit from these changes as any smells from the river will be reduced. The planned increase/improvement of sewage treatment plants will further improve this situation.

Zone 3. The Skadar lake area including transboundary areas on outflow of Bojana to Adriatic. • The reduced flow in spring and sedimentation of particles in the reservoirs may result in less turbidity of the lake waters in Skadar Lake, which again may lead to better conditions for algae (more light) during the start of the growing season in spring. This can increase the risk of (toxic) blue green algae blooms, since the algae will have a longer blooming season. However, it is assumed that the fine grained particles will not settle in the reservoirs but continue over the dams and downstream the river courses. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 90

• Increased flow in summer will also increase the flow in the lake in this warm season. This is assumed to be positive since more rapid water exchange in this season will reduce the risk for harmful algae growth.

In short, the reduced flow in winter and the increased flow during summer are not believed to have significant negative effects based on current knowledge. In fact, an increase of water flow during summer may be regarded as positive, amongst other things for the population in Podgorica.

4.4.4 Impacts on Cultural Heritage There is a potential risk of stress on cultural heritage principally connected to Morača Monastery and to a lesser extent on Duga Monastery. This is due to the high value (international value) assigned to Morača Monastery as a consequence of the policy of cultural heritage protection by Montenegrin authorities. At the present time, we have scarce knowledge on the impact of the microclimate on the frescos and this needs further investigation. Care also needs to be taken when strengthening plateau surrounding the Morača Monastery and the foundations to ensure no structural damage to the building. All necessary works are planned to be undertaken during the construction of the HPPs.

Danilov Bridge near to Mrtivica Canyon and Kaludjerski Bridge near to Morača Monastery will be lost due to the Andrijevo Reservoir. Danilov Bridge is a sight of local significance (Category III) and the value of the bridge is more on the visual and historical side than on the architectural side. However, we assume that a loss of Danilov and Kaludjerski bridges would represent a detrimental impact on the understanding of historical structures along the Morača River. Regarding several concepts on mitigation, one of them is to carry out detailed documentation of the bridge prior to its inundation. However, the DSP is not clear how recording of these structures is to be undertaken.

4.4.5 Geology-Hydrogeology Issues The zone of potential landslide near Djurdjevine in the Andrijevo zone of inundation remains a potential issue. This 2.5km2 area of flysch just downstream on Morača Monastery has been subject of limited geotechnical investigations in the past (electrical resistivity profiling). A tender procedure by ME and IFC for a geotechnical investigation is underway, with the intention to finish the investigation before completing the evaluation of bids for construction of the Morača HPPs. If this cannot be achieved then investigation works will be performed by the Investor/Concessionaire.

There is also concern on the plateau comprising the rock foundations for Morača Monastery which shows varying characteristics of cementation within the conglomerate layers. A project assessing these stability problems at the monastery is planned to be undertaken during the construction of the Morača HPPs.

Water tightness within the storage basins around the 4HPPs and in particular Zlatica and Milunovici dams should also be addressed prior to construction to further assess the permeability of the conglomerates and the limestone.

4.4.6 Impact on Landscape The Morača River valley and the canyon that features in the middle reaches have been assigned a particular landscape unit in the National Spatial Plan of Montenegro. Inundation from the 4 HPPs will affect this landscape unit and this has been the subject of a detailed visual and landscape assessment (see Annex 4).

The construction of hydropower structures on the Morača River is a major development and the surrounding landscapes and countryside must be preserved as much as possible both during and after construction so that the overall project after completion, not only is successful, but also is attractive and blends in with its surroundings.

There are a number of factors that the relevant planning authorities and developers, must consider with any new development in the countryside. These are siting, form and proportion, materials, historic considerations Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 91

and general design standards. Developers must consider the surrounding and existing settlement layouts, and positioning, in order to integrate developments and safeguard access routes used by existing communities.

New resettlement areas that are created due to the inundation from the dams should be a quality residential environment, which includes design, good layout, energy efficiency, form, appropriate density and landscape and tenure mixture. Public spaces and public services (public authorities offices, schools, healthcare, postal and bank services etc.) of appropriate capacity must be ensured and integrated in the existing settlements and/or resettlement areas.

When assessing resettlement areas, health and safety issues, as well as pollution issues, should guide developers to locations which are away from areas such as, safety exclusion zones, busy trunk roads and railway lines, quarries and sewage works. The problems of noise pollution from new generating plant and safety should also be understood.

Also, resettlement areas caused by the hydropower development must not be located on areas which could be susceptible to potential flooding downstream. Planning authorities must always be aware of such issues, as public safety must be a primary consideration when bearing in mind these new residential developments resulting from the reservoirs.

Furthermore, the surroundings and existing landscape is an integral part of a development: The consideration of these landscapes is an important factor as it adds to the overall beauty and enjoyment of a settlement and well as preserving the heritage of the surrounding countryside.

The effect of landscaping for the dam infrastructure is also important. Landscape design in the context of dams cannot totally hide such structures, but carefully crafted landscaping can screen particularly unsightly elements of such developments.

Where extensions to existing settlements are proposed, planners must consider the surrounding area and respect the layout, building types and architecture so that new housing blends in with the existing surrounding environment. To achieve these aims, developers must pay attention to the visual impacts not only from inside the existing settlement, but also the visual impacts from areas outside the town, or village, for example from major roads, rail links and any other viewpoints in which the new structures can be seen. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 92

5 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION – RELEVANT LEGISLATION 5.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) Article 15, sub clause 5 of the Montenegrin Law of SEA states that the specific objectives of environmental protection set either at the international or national level that are of relevance to the DSP for HPPs and ways that these objectives and other aspects are taken into consideration in the preparation process should be assessed. This chapter therefore outlines relevant international, European and national legislation and policy issues of relevance to the SEA for HPP on the Morača River. Further details of the relevance of the environmental policy and legislation are provided in Annex 5.

5.2 Relevant International Policy Montenegro is a signatory and has endorsed the following international agreements relevant to environmental protection and whose objectives should be considered when developing the Morača HPPs Project.:

• The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International importance, especially waterfowl habitat (1971) • The Convention concerning the Protection of World Cultural and Natural Heritage (1972) • Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) • The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (1992) • The Convention of EIA in a Trans-boundary Context (1991) – The “Espoo Convention” • The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992) • The Protocol on SEA (2003) – The “Kiev Protocol” • Convention on the protection and Use of Trans-boundary Waters and International Lakes (1992) – The “Water Convention”

From the above list, the Ramsar and Espoo Conventions combined with the Kiev Protocol and the Kyoto Pro- tocol are the most relevant for the Project.

Ramsar As mentioned in Chapter 3, the Ramsar site of significance to the Project Area is Skadar Lake comprising an area of 200km2 of Montenegrin territory which was designated on 15 December 1995. Skadar Lake is shared with Albania and an area comprising 495.62km2 comprising Lake Skhodra (Skadar Lake) and the Bojana River was designated 2nd February 2006.

Espoo The Espoo Convention sets out the obligations of Parties to assess the environmental impact of certain activities at an early stage of planning. It also lays down the general obligation of States to notify and consult each other on all major projects under consideration that are likely to have a significant adverse environmental impact across boundaries.

Due to the fact that there are potential downstream effects of the DSP will involve cross border issues, the Es- poo Convention is also an important and relevant document together with the UNECE Protocol on SEA (The Kiev Protocol). The SEA Protocol allows for the identification and prevention of possible environmental impacts right from the start of the decision making process.

Kyoto Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol was approved by the Government of Montenegro and adopted on the June 4th, 2007. A designated National Authority for approval of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) Projects has been established in 2008, as well as Ozone Unit within the newly organised Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment (MSPE). Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 93

5.3 Relevant European Policy Accession to the European Union (EU) is a long term objective within the overall development strategy for Montenegro. Consequently, when it comes to environmental protection, it is very important to ensure relevant Montenegrin policy is harmonised with existing European policy. Several key EU Directives and Strategies of relevance to environmental protection and affecting the DSP are listed below:

• The SEA Directive - Directive 2001/42/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2001 on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment • The EIA Directive - Council Directive 85/337/EEC of 27 June 1985 on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment • The Environmental Liability Directive - Directive 2004/35/CE of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 April 2004 on environmental liability with regard to the prevention and remedying of environmental damage • The Birds Directive - Council Directive 79/409/EEC on the conservation of wild birds • The Habitats Directive - Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora • The Water Framework Directive (WFD) - Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the Community action in the field of water policy • EU Land Use Planning regulated indirectly, i.e. through various Directives and Regulations concerning natural resource use or assessment of various plans and programmes. • EU Energy policy focuses on creating a competitive internal energy market offering quality service at low prices, on developing renewable energy sources, on reducing dependence on imported fuels, and on doing more with a lower consumption of energy. Most of the energy policy is broadly defined in green papers and action plans; there are only a few Directives and Regulations that define the key common points. The ones that are relevant in the light of the DSP and SEA of the HPPs on Morača River are: • An energy policy for Europe [COM(2007) 1 final], • Renewable Energy Road Map. Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future [COM(2006) 848 final], • Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007-12) - Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Po- tential [COM(2006) 545], • Green Paper on energy efficiency - or Doing More With Less " [COM(2005) 265 final], • Commission Green Paper: "A European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy" [COM(2006) 105 final], • Biomass Action Plan [COM(2005) 628 final - Official Journal C 49 of 28.02.2005], • Guidelines for trans-European energy networks : Decision No 1364/2006/EC of the European Parlia- ment and of the Council of 6 September 2006 laying down guidelines for trans-European energy networks and repealing Decision 96/391/EC and Decision No 1229/2003/EC. • Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market, setting a target of 12% of gross inland energy consumption from renewables for the EU-15 by 2010, of which electricity would represent 21% and defining the system for calculation and monitoring of achievement of these targets. • Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 January 2008 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, setting the overall binding target of a 20% share of renewable energy sources in energy consumption and a 10% binding minimum target for bio- fuels in transport to be achieved by each Member State, as well as binding national targets by 2020 in line with the overall EU target of 20% and defining the system for calculation and monitoring of achievement of these targets.

Table 5-30 below summaries the main European legislation for the DSP for HPPs on Morača River and its relevance. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 94

Table 5-30: Summary of relevant European Legislation for DSP for HPPs on Morača River Directive Comment SEA Directive The DSP for 4 Hydro Power Plants on Morača River is a plan regulating land use for projects that would require EIA – all the 4 HPPs as well as those of the 11 dams in the upper Morača catchment area that will be used for hydropower production. As a result a SEA is required for this DSP. A separate SEA would be required for the 11 upper catchment dams EIA Directive All 4 HPP on Morača River in the detailed part of DSP, as well as those of the 11 dams in the upper Morača catchment area that will be used for hydropower production are “installations for hydroelectric energy production” that are listed in Annex II, point 3. (h) as projects for which an EIA is required. Environmental All 4 HPP on Morača River in the detailed part of DSP, as well as those of the 11 dams in the up- Liability Direct- per Morača catchment area that will be used for hydropower production could cause: ive • direct or indirect damage to the aquatic environment covered by Water Framework Directive (as they would change ecological and chemical status, sedimentation etc.), • direct or indirect damage to species and natural habitats protected by the Birds Directive or Habitats Directive (as they would affect populations of some of the species and distribution of the habitats). As a result, the operators of the HPPs would be held liable for the costs of preventive measures as well as costs of restorative measures in case environmental damage occurs. Habitats and All 4 HPP on Morača River in the detailed part of DSP, the 11 dams in the upper Morača catch- Birds Directive ment area and possibly also some other developments within DSP will affect some species and habitats listed in the Annexes of these Directives. An appropriate assessment according to Article 6(3) and (4) of the Habitats Directive would have to be done and mitigation and compensatory measures determined and implemented. Water Frame- The ecological minimum water flow would have to be defined and respected during construction work Directive and operation. Sedimentation would have to be managed in the light of good chemical and ecological status of Morača. Zones would have to be defined for specific protection of unique and valuable habitats (if and where defined in the inventories) and in case of multipurpose use, for protection of drinking water resources, and protection of bathing water. Derogations from good ecological and chemical status might be provided, if it can be proved for the HPPs that the alternatives are technically impossible, that they are prohibitively expensive, or that they produce a worse overall environmental result. Directives related Energy produced by the HPPs will account towards the share of renewable energy resources in to renewable en- the energy budget of Montenegro. ergy sources

5.4 Relevant Montenegrin Policy Substantial progress has been made with the development of national strategic legislation and policy related to environmental protection, most linked with EU accession and other obligations relating to international charters and protocols.

The objectives of national strategies that are relevant for the DSP and environment were compared to the objectives of the DSP in order to determine coherence between the national strategies and the DSP. Annex 5 provides more details. The following are a list of important policies of relevance to the DSP for HPPs.

• The Constitution of Montenegro • The National Strategy for Sustainable Development • Energy Development Strategy of Montenegro by 2025 - White Book • Spatial Plan of Montenegro Until 2020 • Laws and Regulations relevant for the Strategic Environmental Assessment Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 95

• The Law on Environment (2008) • The Law on Spatial Planning and Development • The Law on Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (2005) • The Law on Environmental Impact Assessment (2005) • Law on Nature Protection and Law on National Parks • The Law on Energy (2003) • The Water Law (2007) • Expropriation Law (Official Gazette of Montenegro no. 55/00, 12/02) regarding resettlement/ compensation regulations

5.5 Other Issues There are some other issues that may affect the DSP in the future:

• The EU Environmental Liability Directive will be further transposed to Montenegrin legislation through secondary regulations. • It is expected that harmonisation of National strategies with the EU environmental legislation (with implementation plans for certain directives) and National environmental protection programme will be prepared in 2009. • The National Biodiversity Strategy is currently being reviewed to assess its success and amend it according to the policies and strategies of EU. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 96

PART 2 ASSESSMENT

6 IMPACT IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION 6.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) The goals and objectives of the DSP are described in Chapter 2. In Chapter 5, the coherence of the DSP was checked to form a view of how well this compares and conforms to other areas of Montenegro’s national policies and plans and also those from international laws, protocols and conventions. Now in accordance with Article 15:- clause 6 of the Montenegrin Law of SEA, this chapter provides the information on potential significant impacts on the environment, including factors such as biological diversity, population, human health, fauna, flora, land, water, air, climatic aspects, material resources, cultural heritage (including architectural and archaeological heritage), landscape and interrelationships between these factors. However before embarking on the evaluation, it is important to ensure the selected SEA objectives are also in compliance with national sustainability criteria. The full approach and methodology for the impact evaluation and assessment is contained in Annex 6

6.2 Comparing Sustainability Criteria with SEA Objectives Sustainability criteria drawn from the Montenegro SEA Law, the National Spatial Plan and the National Sus- tainable Development Strategy were compared against SEA objectives. The following Table 6-31 provides chosen Sustainability Criteria and Sub Criteria which are mentioned under Montenegrin legislation and policies (this is principally the sustainable development strategy). Table 6-31: Selected Sustainability Criteria SUSTAINABILITY CRITERIA Sub Criteria Protect Environment Respect international reputation as Ecological state ENVIRONMENT Introduce non-threatening technologies Reduce GHG causing Climate Change Environmental protection and economic synergies NATURAL RESOURCES Sustainable development of resources ECONOMY Stimulate innovation and productivity Strengthen entrepreneurial activity Stem outflow of skilled personnel Promote local employment Accelerate Growth Indigenous supply of energy/ services provided SOCIAL Reduce Poverty and protect vulnerable HUMAN RIGHTS Ensure fairer income distribution Healthy and equitable development CULTURAL Preserve local distinctiveness Strengthen society ETHICAL Democratic decision-making

The next task was to agree on SEA Objectives. The SEA Consultant focused on the themes of economic, social and environmental issues and assessed recent environmental documentation from Montenegro to agree a package of possible SEA Objectives to consider. These are shown in Table 6-32 below. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 97

Table 6-32: SEA Objectives and Compliance with National Strategy and Programmes SEA Theme Selected SEA Objective Compliance with national strategies/programmes SEA Objective 1: Promote Growth of local and national GNP Accelerate economic growth and development, and reduce regional development Economic Objective recognises the need to accelerate economic growth and complete transition to disparities” Sustainable growth market economy (stimulating innovation and productivity, enhancing entrepreneurship, re- General goal defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVEL- ducing brain drain) on local, regional and national level. OPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 SEA Objective 2: Increase employment opportunities SME development and increase of employment (priority is the northern region and Objective is addressed to development and increase of employment opportunities not only development of mountain and eco-tourism, production of (healthy) food and sus- Employment directly connected with the realization of the HPPs but also in the tourism sector (develop- tainable forestry” ment of village, agro, eco, mountain, cultural, sport tourism), production of (healthy) food Specific objectives in the field of economic development defined in NATIONAL and sustainable forestry. STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 SEA Objective 3: Preserve/maintain existing livelihoods in the project area Objective is defined to assess the plan and its impacts on existing living conditions (eco- “Reduce poverty; ensure equitable access to services and resources” nomic and social activities), material assets and welfare of the local population. The demo- General goal defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVEL- graphic and economic structure of local people in the project area is weak (older popula- OPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 tion, strong depopulation trends, poverty issue) and consequently more vulnerable because Social of changes in living conditions. Population and hu- SEA Objective 4: Improve the quality of life for local people and local communities Improve the health-related quality of life (while promoting healthy life styles) and man health One of the main environmental objectives is to reduce the possible threats to human health. preservation and improvement of public health with particular emphasis on vulner- With this objective we address the main threats to human health like noise, air pollution, able groups” water pollution, electromagnetic radiation and the presence of waste. On the other hand we Specific objective in the field of Social development – theme Health care system also try to address the access to public services (infrastructure equipment, access to health defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF care, education, recreational infrastructure, public areas, public administration ...) equally to MONTENEGRO, 2007 all residents. SEA Objective 5: Preserve historic buildings, archaeological sites and other culturally important features Preserve cultural diversity and identities” Within this objective the preservation of historic buildings, archaeological sites and other General goal defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVEL- culturally important features is addressed, because of its importance in maintaining cultural OPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 diversity and identity on local and national level. Through this objective we want to assess Cultural heritage the developments, which might change the state, contents, use and thus the value of cultural and landscape heritage. SEA Objective 6: Enhance and preserve local structures and various landscapes Protection of natural and cultural landscapes” Objective is defined to assess the plan and its impacts on the existing typological character- Specific objective in the field of Environment and natural resources – theme Spa- istics of the landscape (natural and cultural elements) by encouraging agricultural activities, tial planning defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVEL- maintaining the traditional appearance of rural settlements, taking into account the tradi- OPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 tional architecture. Environmental Fullfil obligations under international agreements on climate change and reduction SEA Objective 7: Reduce green-house gas emission Air in use of ozone depleting substances Objective is defined to assess the plan and its impacts on air pollution and climate changes. Climatic factors Reduction of the total emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (CO2), meth- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 98

SEA Theme Selected SEA Objective Compliance with national strategies/programmes

ane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), HFCs, PFCs and SF6) for at least 5% compared to the level of the 1990th in the period 2008-2012. Law on Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (Sl. List RCG, no. 17/07)

Long term objectives: DC 1 - (i) protection and enhancement of all the components of biodiversity and SEA Objective 8: Conservation of biodiversity (ii) their sustainable exploitation Objective recognises the need to conserve biodiversity – habitats, animal and plant species DC 2 – topics of Convention on biodiversity, with priority on I. Forest biodiversity, as a natural resource. The focus is on endemic, rare and endangered species. II. Freshwater biodiversity, III. Marine and coastal biodiversity and IV. Mountain Biodiversity, biodiversity. Flora and fauna SEA Objective 9: Protection of existing nature protected areas DC 3 – important cross – cutting issues of protection and sustainable use of biod- Objective recognises the function of the nature protected areas as a mechanism for protec- iversity: (i) protected areas, (ii) sustainable use of biodiversity, (iii) protection of tion of areas with high biodiversity, outstanding natural beauty and which are particularly ecosystems, (iv) tourism and protection of biodiversity, (v) spatial planning and valuable and/or sensitive. biodiversity (vi) nature impact assessment NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY STRATEGY WITH ACTION PLAN FOR THE PERIOD 2009 – 2014 (draft, June 2009) NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 Spatial plan of Montenegro, 2008 SEA Objective 10: Establish integrated river basin management Within these objectives the water cycle is ensured within carrying capacity and uses of wa- “Introducing integrated river basin management, with necessary legal and institu- Water ter for human activities are addressed, such as general water abstraction, maintenance of tional changes and improvements in the quality control and monitoring of waters” water regime of sources of drinking water and proper management of waste water. Specific objective in the field of Environment and natural resources – theme Water defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MONTENEGRO, 2007 Spatial plan of Montenegro, 2008 Water framework Directive SEA Objective 11: Minimise and mitigate against loss of agricultural land, seismic hazards and land erosion Objective is defined to avoid and mitigate the impacts of changed land use on agricultural Improvement of soil management and prevention of the causes of land degradation Soil/Land land, seismic safety of dams, because of high seismic hazard recognised in the project area and damages” Geology/Seismic and possible activation of landslides and rock-falls in the zone of reservoirs on Morača Specific objective in the field of Environment and natural resources – theme Soil river. defined in NATIONAL STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA Objective 12: Uphold appropriate use of mineral resources in the area MONTENEGRO, 2007 The objective is set to address more sustainable use of mineral resources in the project area, especially gravel extraction in the Morača River . Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 99

The next step required a cross comparison of the sustainability criteria with the chosen SEA objectives to assess the degree of sustainability or unsustainability of a compared criteria with the SEA Objective.

An allocation of sustainability was then provided using a point score ranging from “-3” representative of “highly unsustainable” to a score of “3” which was representative of “highly sustainable”. The full methodology for this scoring is provided in Annex 6 of this report. The different scores were then colour coded to provide an improved visual interpretation of the results. The allocation of score was undertaken by different members of the SEA consultant team using professional judgement and a final output provided in the form of a matrix. The results are shown in Table 6-33 below:

What is clear from Table 6-33 is that there are two areas of potential conflict in the matrix which show “weak”, “very weak” and “highly unsustainable” trends (yellow to red boxes). These are apparent when comparing environmental sustainability criteria with economic SEA objectives and when comparing economic growth with environmental SEA objectives involved with environmental protection and preservation of biodiversity.

Table 6-33also shows good harmonisation (as would be expected) of “highly sustainable” trends (dark blue boxes) when comparing economic and social sustainability criteria with economic and social SEA objectives and when comparing environmental sustainability criteria with environmental SEA objectives. Table 6-33: Comparison of Sustainability Criteria against SEA Objectives

SEA Objective Sustainability Sub Criteria Criteria Economic Social Environment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Protect Environment -3 -2 -1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 0 Respect international repu- -2 -2 -1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 0 tation as Ecological state ENVIRONMENT Introduce non-threatening -1 -1 -1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 0 technologies Reduce GHG causing Cli- -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 mate Change Environmental protection 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 NATURAL RE- and economic synergies SOURCES Sustainable development 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 of resources Stimulate innovation and 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 productivity Strengthen entrepreneurial 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 activity Stem outflow of skilled 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ECONOMY personnel Promote local employment 1 3 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 Accelerate Growth 3 2 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 Indigenous supply of en- 1 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 ergy/ services provided Reduce Poverty and pro- SOCIAL 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 tect vulnerable Ensure fairer income distri- HUMAN RIGHTS 1 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 bution Healthy and equitable de- CULTURALHERIT- 1 2 3 3 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 velopment AGE AND CULTUR- Preserve local distinctive- AL MONUMENTS 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 ness Strengthen society 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ETHICAL Democratic decision-mak- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ing Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 100

Key to allocation of Sustainability Not Highly Highly Sus- Very weak Weak Neutral Strong Very strong Applicable Unsustainable tainable NA -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Key to SEA Objectives SEA Objective 1 Promote Growth of local and national GNP SEA Objective 7 Reduce green-house gas emissions SEA Objective 2 Increase Employment Opportunities SEA Objective 8 Conservation of biodiversity SEA Objective 3 Preserve/Maintain Existing livelihoods SEA Objective 9 Protection of existing nature protected areas SEA Objective 4 Improve Quality of Life SEA Objective 10 Establish integrated river basin management SEA Objective 5 Preserve Historic Buildings, cultural identity etc SEA Objective 11 Minimise / mitigate against loss of agricultural land, seismic hazards and land erosion SEA Objective 6 Enhance /preserve local structures/landscapes SEA Objective 12 Uphold appropriate use of mineral resources

The sustainability criteria described above are appropriate for reviewing broad strategic objectives, but they are not that suitable for judging the likely significance of individual facilities or infrastructure works (such as hydropower facilities). Hence, a more detailed checklist was used for the identification of impacts and was developed from the basis of the EU SEA Directive, the Montenegro SEA Law (Article 9) and as required in the SEA TOR.

6.3 Impact Identification for HPPs Individually and Overall When assessing impact identification, specific attention was given to factors (parameters/indicators) such as, population, human health, fauna, flora, land, water, air, climatic aspects, material resources, cultural heritage and monuments, including architectural and archaeological heritage, landscape and relations between these factors.

The impact assessment was performed for each individual dam site and focused on the information contained in the DDZs which formed part of the DSP. The SEA Consultant then undertook an assessment of the HPPs overall (4 dams and reservoirs, power corridors etc) as described in the DSP and including the downstream effects wherever relevant. However, no assessment of the 11 separate reservoirs and associated small scale hydropower plants in the upper catchment has been made as the level of information provided was not sufficient for a full impact assessment to be possible. As previously mentioned a decision is yet to be made about constructing these 11 upper catchment dams and associated power plants. Notwithstanding, this would be subject to further SEA if a decision was made to proceed.

When assessing the impacts, the SEA Consultant has been impartial and has used qualitative “best judgement” for denoting values based on the information that has been made available.

A description of the qualitative and quantitative grading system applied to the individual parameters/indicators for the impact evaluation tables is shown below in Table 6-34. Table 6-34: Grading System for Impact Parameters - Indicators

Parameter/ Category Description of quantitative-qualitative grading/marking system for each parameter/in- Indicator dicator The following parameters Low (L): the development impact has low sensitivity on parameter/indicator and indicators are taken in LOCATION Moderate (M) the development impact has moderate sensitivity on parameter/indicator turn and marked qualitat- High (H): the development impact is highly sensitive on parameter/indicator ively and quantitatively: Local (L): The impact is noticeable on parameter/indicator at local level Municipal (M) The impact is noticeable on parameter/indicator at municipal level SCALE Regional (R) The impact is noticeable on parameter/indicator at regional level POPULATION National (N) The impact is noticeable on parameter/indicator at national level International (I):The impact is noticeable on parameter/indicator at international level HEALTH MAGNITUDE Just Detectable (1): The impact is just noticeable on parameter/indicator INTENSITY Very small (2): The impact is very small on parameter/indicator EMPLOYMENT Small (3): The impact is small on parameter/indicator Modest (4): The impact is modest on parameter/indicator Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 101

Parameter/ Category Description of quantitative-qualitative grading/marking system for each parameter/in- Indicator dicator INFRASTRUCTURE Large (5): The impact is large on parameter/indicator Very Large (6): The impact is very large on parameter/indicator FLORA-FAUNA Exceptionally Large (7): the impact is exceptionally large on parameter/indicator Highly Unlikely (1): The impact on parameter/indicator is highly unlikely to occur LAND USE – SOILS PROBABILITY Very unlikely (2): The impact on parameter/indicator is very unlikely to occur (refer to Table 1-4 in Unlikely (3): The impact on parameter/indicator is likely to occur GEOLOGY – SEISMIC Annex 6 for percent- Neither unlikely or likely (4): Impact on parameter/indicator is neither likely or unlikely age probability Likely (5): The impact on parameter/indicator is likely to occur WATER DRAINAGE ranges) Very Likely (6): The impact on parameter/indicator is very likely to occur Almost certain (7): the impact on parameter/indicator is almost certain to occur AIR One off (1): The frequency of impact on parameter/indicator will only occur once? FREQUENCY Repetitive (2): The frequency of impact on parameter/indicator will be repetitive? CLIMATE Reversible (1): Is the impact on parameter/indicator reversible? REVERSIBILITY Irreversible (2): Is the impact on parameter/indicator irreversible? MATERIAL ASSETS DURATION/ Immediate (I): Is the impact effect on parameter/indicator immediate? PERMANENCE Short Term (ST) Is the impact effect on parameter/indicator short term (weeks/months)? CULTURAL HERITAGE (only applies if Re- Medium (M) Is the impact effect on parameter/indicator medium duration? (up to 1 year) versible) Long term (LT): Is the impact effect on parameter/indicator long term duration (years)? LANDSCAPE CUMULATIVE/ No cumulative effects (NC): Are no cumulative effects on parameter/indicator likely? SYNERGISTIC EF- Cumulative effects likely (C): Are cumulative effects on parameter/indicator likely? FECTS ADVERSE/ Beneficial (BE): Is the impact beneficial on parameter/indicator BENEFICIAL/ Mixed (M): Are there mixed effects from the impacts on parameter/indicator? MIXED Adverse (Ad): Is the impact adverse on parameter/indicator?

Based on the grading system in the above table, the following impact evaluation tables (in landscape format) are provided:

Table 6-35: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Zlatica Table 6-36: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Milunovici Table 6-37: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Raslovici Table 6-38: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Andrijevo Table 6-39: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPPs Overall Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 102

Table 6-35: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Zlatica

CUMULATIVE / ADVERSE / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED

Impact will be ex- Moderate Sensitiv- perience at Muni- HPP once built will Generally benefi- ity - Site is near to Likely probability HPP and inunda- HPP will encourage cipal Level - DSP Impact will bring be irreversible cial effect to the Podgorica some ex- that scale and im- tion once created NA as irreversible more development POPULATION predicts <50 about modest hence this will al- area through em- isting urban spread pact prediction will will be a one off impact of the area i.e. With house/buildings af- changes ways impact on the ployment opportun- but close to Rijeka occur event recreation/ tourism fected by inunda- population ities Male canyon tion Low Sensitivity Health effects due Magnitude and in- Cumulative effects Generally benefi- to noise, dust only tensity of effects on Likely probability Impact of health is- Short term effect of Impact of health is- Frequency of health likely through im- cial effect in health expected to be short noise dust just de- that scale and im- sues (noise and noise and dust HEALTH sues would only af- effects will be re- proved health care care due to increase term during con- tectable. Stress on pact prediction will dust) has reversible primarily during fect local level petitive events facilities of work- in demand for ser- struction – perhaps affected people dif- occur effects construction stage ing population vices some stress for af- ficult to determine fected people

Employment will Moderate sensitiv- Cumulative effects HPP development be repetitive ity regarding em- Likely probability If employment was likely as employ- Generally benefi- EMPLOYMENT/ would have region- Modest changes throughout. Em- Employment char- ployment on loca- that scale and im- stopped this would ment creates more cial effect in terms ECONOMIC ACTIV- al impact for em- likely within the af- ployment numbers acteristics are re- tion. Pressure put pact prediction will have immediate ef- opportunities for of sustainable ob- ITIES ployment and eco- fected area at construction versible onto Rijeka Male occur fect sustainably devel- jectives nomic stimulus greater but then re- canyon opment duces at operation

Moderate sensitiv- Cumulative effects Large changes will ity on existing in- Likely probability likely as infrastruc- Generally benefi- Effect on infra- occur due to new The impact once The effects on infrastructure. Some that scale and im- NA as irreversible ture will provide cial effect in terms INFRASTRUCTURE structure at Muni- infrastructure of the undertake would be frastructure would road, power and pact prediction will impact basis for other op- of sustainable ob- cipal level dam causing inund- a one off event be irreversible pipelines realign- occur portunities (tourist jectives ation ment required facilities etc) Irreversible - as endemic species Repetitive events as High sensitive ef- Effect could be of Very likely that im- (primarily plant Cumulative effects Large changes will will be on annual fect on flora and national signific- pacts occurring will species that will be likely as flora and Generally adverse occur due to growth cycle and FLORA / fauna - blocked fish ance - knock on ef- effect fish in Mor- inundated, but also NA as irreversible fauna, food chain, effect in terms of flooded areas migrations - de- FAUNA migration, down- fects on Skadar ača River and some animal spe- impact migratory routes environmental sus- caused by dam and pends a lot on oper- stream effects on Lake are very im- downstream Lake cies such as fish) etc are generally in- tainability downstream effects ation of dam. Water Skadar Lake portant Skadar might become ex- terdependent level oscillations tinct and then cannot be replaced - Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 103

CUMULATIVE / ADVERSE / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED

fish transfer difficult

If inundation was Moderately sensit- Likely probability Cumulative effects Generally benefi- Impact will bring The impact on land Could be reversible reversed it would LAND USE/ ive effect on land Effect on land use that scale and im- as improved land cial effect in terms about modest use would be a one if dam was emp- be Long Term of SOILS use, some agricul- at Municipal level pact prediction will use will create oth- of sustainable ob- changes off event tied. >10yrs to reverse ture affected occur er opportunities jectives effects Generally mixed as No definite probab- Effects would be Moderately sensit- Effect on hydro- Small changes Effect on from threat of seis- GEOLOGY/ ility, more monitor- repetitive due to the NA as irreversible Cumulative effect ive due to seismic geology expected likely to be experi- geology/soil irre- mic activity, but be- SEISMIC ing data is neces- nature of the cli- impact possible zone VIII to be local enced versible nefit from recharge sary mate to groundwater Modest to large ef- Generally mixed ef- Moderate to highly No definite probab- Effects would be Cumulative effect Impacts from flow fects could result If reversed it would fects - Adverse on WATER / DRAIN- sensitive due to ility yet as more repetitive due to the Impacts are revers- as provides water changes are at Re- downstream take >10 year to Skadar Lake but be- AGE downstream effects reliable monitoring cyclical nature of ible supply for Podgor- gional Scale through flow have effect neficial for Podgor- on Skadar Lake data is necessary flow ica changes (peaking) ica water supply Low sensitivity as no real effect from Effects on air Effects if they oc- Almost certain that Repetitive event as Impacts are revers- Short term duration No cumulative ef- Generally mixed ef- AIR development except would be on a Loc- cur, would be just predicted effects and when construc- ible (weeks) fects fects dust during con- al scale detectable would occur tion occurs struction Low sensitivity due Effects on a Local Likely probability Effects if they oc- to change in micro- scale - humidity in- that scale and im- Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- Long term duration No cumulative ef- Generally mixed ef- CLIMATE cur would be just climate - yet to be creased due to pact prediction will climate ible 1-5 years fects fects detectable - ascertained reservoirs occur Generally mixed effects adverse in Likely probability Moderate sensitiv- Effects on build- Large changes in The impact on the The effects on ma- terms of property MATERIAL that scale and im- NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- ity regarding loss of ings would be on a the affected area property would be a terial assets would loss but beneficial ASSETS pact prediction will impact fects some buildings local scale due to inundation one off event be irreversible in terms of future occur development opportunities Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 104

CUMULATIVE / ADVERSE / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED Mixed effects some Moderate sensitiv- No definite probab- The effects on cul- Effects on cultural Repetitive effects erosion on cultural CULTURAL HERIT- ity regarding Duga Effects likely to be ility yet as more tural heritage NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- heritage would be to change in micro- heritage, but likely AGE Monastery, but not just detectable reliable monitoring would be irrevers- impact fects on a Local scale climate to improve due to directly affected data is necessary ible better maintenance Moderate sensitiv- Large changes Generally mixed ef- Likely probability ity due to location would result from The impact on the fects adverse in Effect on landscape that scale of impact Long term scale No cumulative ef- LANDSCAPE of Bioce and Rijeka inundation and landscape would be Could be reversible terms of dam but at Municipal level prediction will oc- >10 years fects Mala canyon, and changes to amenity a one off event beneficial in terms cur Duga Monastery value of reservoir Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 105

Table 6-36: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Milunovici

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Low Sensitivity Likely probability HPP will encourage Generally beneficial Site within canyon Impact will be ex- Impact will bring HPP and inundation that scale and im- HPP once built will NA as irreversible more development effect to the area POPULATION not near to many perience at Local about very small once created will be pact prediction will be irreversible impact of the area i.e. With through employ- settlements 20 Level changes a one off event occur recreation/ tourism ment opportunities households affected -Low Sensitivity Health effects due Magnitude and in- Cumulative effects to noise, dust only tensity of effects on Likely probability Impact of health is- Short term effect of Generally beneficial Impact of health is- Frequency of health likely through im- expected to be short noise dust just de- that scale and im- sues (noise and noise and dust effect in health care HEALTH sues would only af- effects will be re- proved health care term during con- tectable. Stress pact prediction will dust) has reversible primarily during due to increase in fect local level petitive events facilities of working struction Some more difficult to de- occur effects construction stage demand population stress of affected termine population Employment will be repetitive event Cumulative effects HPP development Likely probability throughout the de- If employment was likely as employ- Generally beneficial EMPLOYMENT/ Low sensitivity re- Modest changes Employment char- would have region- that scale and im- velopment >em- stopped this would ment creates more effect in terms of ECONOMIC ACTIV- garding employ- likely within the af- acteristics are real impact for em- pact prediction will ployment at con- have immediate ef- opportunities for sustainable object- ITIES ment on location fected area versible ployment occur struction but then fect sustainably devel- ives more continuous at opment operation Cumulative effects Small changes will Low sensitivity on Likely probability likely as infrastruc- Generally beneficial occur due to new The impact once The effects on in- existing infrastruc- Effect on infrastruc- that scale and im- NA as irreversible ture will provide effect in terms of INFRASTRUCTURE infrastructure of the undertake would be frastructure would ture. Small change ture at Local level pact prediction will impact basis for other op- sustainable object- dam causing inund- a one off event be irreversible to power line occur portunities (tourist ives ation facilities etc) Irreversible - as endemic species Repetitive events as (primarily plant High sensitive ef- Effect could be of Very likely that im- Cumulative effects Large changes will will be on annual species that will be fect on flora and national signific- pacts occurring will likely as flora and Generally adverse occur due to growth cycle and inundated, but also FLORA / fauna - blocked fish ance - knock on ef- effect fish in Mor- NA as irreversible fauna, food chain, effect in terms of flooded areas migrations - de- some animal spe- FAUNA migration, down- fects on Skadar ača River and impact migratory routes etc environmental sus- caused by dam and pends a lot on oper- cies such as fish) stream effects on Lake are very im- downstream Lake are generally inter- tainability downstream effects ation of dam. Water might become ex- Skadar Lake portant Skadar dependent level oscillations tinct and then cannot be replaced - fish transfer diffi- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 106

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

cult

If inundation was Low sensitive effect Likely probability Cumulative effects Generally beneficial Impact will bring The impact on land reversed it would on land use. Small Effect on land use that scale and im- Could be reversible as improved land effect in terms of LAND USE/SOILS about very small use would be a one take Long Term of amount of land in- at Local level pact prediction will if dam was emptied. use will create other sustainable object- changes off event >10yrs to reverse undated occur opportunities ives effects Mixed - adverse No definite probab- Effects would be re- Effect on hydrogeo- Very small changes Effect on from threat of seis- Low sensitive effect ility yet as more repetitive due to the NA as irreversible Cumulative effect GEOLOGY/SEISMIC logy likely to be likely to be experi- geology/soil irre- mic activity but be- on geology liable monitoring nature of the cli- impact possible local enced versible nefit from ground- data is necessary mate water recharge Generally mixed ef- Moderate to Highly No definite probab- Effects would be re- Cumulative effect Impacts from flow Modest to Large Ef- If reversed it would fects - Adverse on WATER / DRAIN- sensitive due to ility yet as more repetitive due to the Impacts are revers- as provides water changes are at Re- fects could result take >10 year to Skadar Lake but be- AGE downstream effects liable monitoring cyclical nature of ible supply for other gional Scale downstream have effect neficial for water on Skadar Lake data is necessary flow uses users

Low sensitivity as no real effect from Effects on air Effects if they occur Almost certain that Repetitive event as Impacts are revers- Impacts are revers- No cumulative ef- AIR development except would be on a Loc- would be just de- predicted effects and when construc- Generally beneficial ible ible fects dust during con- al scale tectable would occur tion occurs struction Low sensitivity due Effects on a Local Effects if they occur Likely probability to change in micro- scale - humidity in- would be just de- Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- Long term duration No cumulative ef- Generally mixed ef- CLIMATE that predicted ef- climate - yet to be creased due to tectable - to be con- climate ible 1-5 years fects fects fects would occur ascertained reservoirs firmed

Likely probability Generally beneficial Effects on a Local Very small changes Low sensitivity no that scale and im- The impact would The effects would NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- in terms of future MATERIAL ASSETS scale (but no build- in the affected area loss to buildings pact prediction will be a one off event be irreversible impact fects development oppor- ings) due to inundation occur tunities Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 107

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Generally mixed - Likely probability Low sensitivity re- Effects on cultural Repetitive effects to The effects on cul- adverse effects cul- CULTURAL HERIT- Effects likely to be that scale and im- NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- garding Duga Mon- heritage would be change in microcli- tural heritage would tural heritage - AGE just detectable pact prediction will impact fects astery on a Local scale mate be irreversible Duga, beneficial for occur future development Generally mixed ef- Likely probability Small changes The impact on the The effects on land- fects adverse in Moderate sensitiv- Effect on landscape that scale and im- NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- LANDSCAPE would result from landscape would be scape would be irre- terms of dam but ity due to Dam at Local level pact prediction will impact fects inundation a one off event versible beneficial in terms occur of reservoir Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 108

Table 6-37: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Raslovici

CUMULATIVE / ADVERS / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED

Generally benefi- Low Sensitivity Likely probability HPP and inunda- HPP will encourage Impact will be ex- Impact will bring cial effect to the Site within canyon that scale and im- tion once created HPP once built will NA as irreversible more development POPULATION perience at Local about very small area through em- not near to many pact prediction will will be a one off be irreversible impact of the area i.e. With Level changes ployment oppor- settlements occur event recreation/ tourism tunities Low Sensitivity Cumulative effects Generally benefi- Health effects due Magnitude and in- Likely probability Impact of health is- Short term effect of Impact of health is- Frequency of health likely through im- cial effect in to noise, dust only tensity of effects on that scale and im- sues (noise and noise and dust HEALTH sues would only af- effects will be re- proved health care health care due to expected to be short noise dust just de- pact prediction will dust) has reversible primarily during fect local level petitive events facilities of work- increase in de- term during con- tectable occur effects construction stage ing population mand struction Employment will be repetitive event Cumulative effects HPP development Likely probability throughout the de- If employment was likely as employ- Generally benefi- EMPLOYMENT/ ECO- Low sensitivity re- Modest changes Employment char- would have region- that scale and im- velopment >em- stopped this would ment creates more cial effect in NOMIC garding employ- likely within the af- acteristics are real impact for em- pact prediction will ployment at con- have immediate ef- opportunities for terms of sustain- ACTIVITIES ment on location fected area versible ployment occur struction but then fect sustainably devel- able objectives more continuous at opment operation Cumulative effects Small changes will Likely probability likely as infrastruc- Generally benefi- Low sensitivity on Effect on infra- occur due to new The impact once The effects on in- that scale and im- NA as irreversible ture will provide cial effect in INFRASTRUCTURE existing infrastruc- structure at Local infrastructure of the undertaken would frastructure would pact prediction will impact basis for opportun- terms of sustain- ture - none affected level dam causing inund- be a one off event be irreversible occur ities (tourist facilit- able objectives ation ies etc) Irreversible - as endemic species (primarily plant Repetitive events as High sensitive ef- Effect could be of Very likely that im- species that will be Cumulative effects Large changes will will be on annual fect on flora and national signific- pacts occurring will inundated, but also likely as flora and Generally adverse occur due to growth cycle and FLORA / fauna - blocked fish ance - knock on ef- effect fish in Mor- some animal spe- NA as irreversible fauna, food chain, effect in terms of flooded areas migrations - de- FAUNA migration, down- fects on Skadar ača River and cies such as fish) impact migratory routes environmental sus- caused by dam and pends a lot on oper- stream effects on Lake are very im- downstream Lake might become ex- etc are generally in- tainability downstream effects ation of dam. Water Skadar Lake portant Skadar tinct and then can- terdependent level oscillations not be replaced - fish transfer difficult Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 109

CUMULATIVE / ADVERS / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED

If inundation was Likely probability Cumulative effects Generally benefi- Impact will bring The impact on land Could be reversible reversed it would LAND USE/ Low sensitive ef- Effect on land use that scale and im- as improved land cial effect in about very small use would be a one if dam was emp- take Long Term of SOILS fect on land use at Local level pact prediction will use will create oth- terms of sustain- changes off event tied. >10yrs to reverse occur er opportunities able objectives effects Mixed, generally No definite probab- Effects would be adverse from Effect on hydro- Very small changes Effect on GEOLOGY/ Low sensitive ef- ility yet as more repetitive due to the NA as irreversible Cumulative effect threat of seismic geology likely to be likely to be experi- geology/soil irre- SEISMIC fect on geology reliable monitoring nature of the cli- impact possible activity but benefi- local enced versible data is necessary mate cial for groundwater Effects are interna- Generally mixed Highly sensitive No definite probab- Effects would be Cumulative effect tional as Skadar Very Large Effects If reversed it would effects - Adverse WATER / due to downstream ility yet as more repetitive due to the Impacts are revers- as provides water Lake is a trans- could result down- take >10 year to on Skadar Lake DRAINAGE effects on Skadar reliable monitoring cyclical nature of ible supply for Podgor- boundary issue stream have effect but beneficial for Lake data is necessary flow ica with Albania Podgorica

Low sensitivity as Generally benefi- no real effect from Effects on air Effects if they oc- Almost certain that Repetitive event as Impacts are revers- Impacts are revers- No cumulative ef- cial to mixed ef- AIR development except would be on a Loc- cur would be just predicted effects and when construc- ible ible fects fects but not really dust during con- al scale detectable would occur tion occurs significant struction

Low sensitivity due Effects if they oc- Effects on a Local No definite probab- to small change in cur would be just scale - humidity in- ility yet as more Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- Long term duration No cumulative ef- Generally mixed CLIMATE microclimate -im- detectable –but creased due to reliable monitoring climate ible 1-5 years fects effects pact yet to be ascer- needs to be con- reservoirs data is necessary tained firmed Likely probability Generally benefi- Effects on a Local Very small changes MATERIAL Low sensitivity no that scale and im- The impact would The effects would NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- cial in terms of fu- scale (but no build- in the affected area ASSETS loss to buildings pact prediction will be a one off event be irreversible impact fects ture development ings present) due to inundation occur opportunities Beneficial no ef- Low sensitivity - no Likely probability The effects on cul- Repetitive effects fect on cultural CULTURAL HERIT- cultural heritage Effects on a Local Effects likely to be that scale and im- tural heritage NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- to change in micro- heritage and reser- AGE sites directly af- scale just detectable pact prediction will would be irrevers- impact fects climate voir will improve fected occur ible the area Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 110

CUMULATIVE / ADVERS / BE- MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC NEFICIAL/ TENSITY PERMANENCE EFFECTS MIXED

Generally mixed Likely probability Small changes The impact on the effects adverse in Moderate sensitiv- Effect on landscape that scale and im- Long term scale No cumulative ef- LANDSCAPE would result from landscape would be Could be reversible terms of dam but ity due to Dam at Local level pact prediction will >10 years fects inundation a one off event beneficial in terms occur of reservoir Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 111

Table 6-38: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPP Andrijevo

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC INTENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Impact will be ex- Moderate sensitiv- perience at Re- HPP once built HPP will encour- Likely probability HPP and inunda- ity - Site is near to gional Level - DSP Impact will bring will be irreversible age more develop- Generally benefi- that scale and im- tion once created NA as irreversible POPULATION number of settle- predicts 310 about modest hence this will al- ment of the area cial effect to the pact prediction will will be a one off impact ments that will be people affected by changes ways impact on the i.e. With recre- area for population occur event affected inundation, but an population ation/ tourism old estimate Low Sensitivity Health effects due Generally benefi- to noise, dust only Cumulative effects Magnitude and in- Likely probability Impact of health is- Short term effect cial effect in health expected to be Impact of health is- Frequency of likely through im- tensity of effects that scale and im- sues (noise and of noise and dust care due to in- HEALTH short term during sues would only health effects will proved health care on noise dust just pact prediction will dust) has reversible primarily during crease in demand construction – Per- affect local level be repetitive events facilities of work- detectable occur effects construction stage and improvements haps some stress ing population in the area for directly affected people

Employment will be repetitive event Cumulative effects Moderate sensitiv- HPP development Likely probability throughout the de- If employment was likely as employ- Generally benefi- EMPLOYMENT/ ECO- Modest changes Employment char- ity regarding em- would have region- that scale and im- velopment >em- stopped this would ment creates more cial effect in terms NOMIC likely within the acteristics are re- ployment on loca- al impact for em- pact prediction will ployment at con- have immediate ef- opportunities for of sustainable ob- ACTIVITIES affected area versible tion. ployment occur struction but then fect sustainably devel- jectives more continuous at opment operation

Cumulative effects Moderate sensitiv- Large changes will Likely probability likely as infrastruc- Generally benefi- ity on existing in- Effect on infra- occur due to new The impact once The effects on in- that scale and im- NA as irreversible ture will provide cial effect in terms INFRASTRUCTURE frastructure. Large structure at Muni- infrastructure of undertake would frastructure would pact prediction will impact basis for other op- of sustainable ob- amount of road re- cipal level the dam causing be a one off event be irreversible occur portunities (tourist jectives alignment required inundation facilities etc) Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 112

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC INTENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Irreversible - as any endemic spe- Repetitive events High sensitive ef- Effect could be cies (primarily Almost certain that as will be on annu- Cumulative effects fect on flora and overall of interna- Very large changes plant species impacts occurring al growth cycle likely as flora and Generally adverse fauna - blocked tional significance will occur due to known to occur in FLORA / will effect fish in and migrations - NA as irreversible fauna, food chain, effect in terms of fish migration –, - knock on effects flooded areas Platije and FAUNA Morača River and depends a lot on impact migratory routes environmental sus- downstream ef- on Skadar Lake – caused by dam and Mrtvica) could be- downstream Lake operation of dam. etc are generally tainability fects on Skadar Ramsar site are downstream effects come extinct and Skadar Water level oscil- interdependent Lake very important then cannot be relations placed - fish transfer difficult

If inundation was Likely probability Cumulative effects Generally benefi- Moderately sensit- Impact will bring The impact on land Could be revers- reversed it would LAND USE/ Effect on land use that scale and im- as improved land cial effect in terms ive effect on land about modest use would be a one ible if dam was take Long Term of SOILS at Municipal level pact prediction will use will create oth- of sustainable ob- use changes off event emptied. >10yrs to reverse occur er opportunities jectives effects

Mixed to Generally adverse from threat Moderately sensit- No definite prob- Effects would be Effect on hydro- Small changes Effect on of seismic activity GEOLOGY/ ive effect on geo- ability yet as more repetitive due to NA as irreversible Cumulative effect geology could be likely to be experi- geology/soil irre- and landslide, but SEISMIC logy due to loca- reliable monitoring the nature of the impact possible regional enced versible groundwater re- tion of Djurdjevine data is necessary climate charge would be beneficial Effects could be Mixed - adverse Highly sensitive international as ef- No definite prob- Effects would be Cumulative effect downstream on Very Large Effects If reversed it WATER / due to downstream fect on Skadar ability yet as more repetitive due to Impacts are revers- as provides water Skadar Lake, but could result down- would take >10 DRAINAGE effects on Skadar Lake is a trans- reliable monitoring the cyclical nature ible supply for settle- improvement in stream year to have effect Lake boundary issue data is necessary of flow ments water supply to with Albania local users

Low sensitivity as Effects on air no real effect from would be on a Loc- Effects if they oc- Likely probability Repetitive event as Impacts are revers- Impacts are revers- No cumulative ef- Generally mixed AIR development ex- al scale - humidity cur would be just that predicted ef- and when con- ible ible fects effects cept dust during at Morača Monas- detectable fects would occur struction occurs construction tery Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 113

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC INTENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Low sensitivity Effects on a Local Effects if they oc- No definite prob- due to change in scale - humidity cur would be just ability yet as more Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- Short term dura- No cumulative ef- Generally mixed CLIMATE microclimate - yet increased due to detectable - to be reliable monitoring climate ible tion 1-5 years fects effects to be ascertained reservoirs confirmed data is necessary

Generally mixed Moderate sensitiv- effects adverse in ity regarding loss Likely probability Effects on build- Large changes in The impact on the The effects on ma- terms of property MATERIAL of some >200 that scale and im- NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- ings would be on a the affected area property would be terial assets would loss but beneficial ASSETS buildings, includ- pact prediction will impact fects Municipal scale due to inundation a one off event be irreversible in terms of future ing 2 schools and 1 occur development op- church portunities Mixed - adverse ef- Likely probability fects as High sensitivity re- Effects on cultural that scale and im- The effects on cul- erosion/loss on cul- garding Morača heritage can be on pact prediction will Repetitive effects CULTURAL HERIT- Effects would be tural heritage NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- tural heritage, but Monastery and loss a National scale occur, but more to change in mi- AGE small to modest would be irrevers- impact fects beneficial as main- of Danilov and due to Morača monitoring of microclimate ible tenance of Morača Kaluderski Bridges Monastery croclimate is re- Monastery will im- quired prove Generally mixed High sensitivity Effect on land- Large changes Likely probability effects adverse in due to near loca- scape at Regional would result from The impact on the that scale and im- Could be revers- Long term scale No cumulative ef- terms of dam but LANDSCAPE tion of Mrtvica - national level – inundation and landscape would pact prediction will ible >10 years fects beneficial in terms canyon and Mor- referred to as his- changes to amenity be a one off event occur of reservoir amen- ača Monastery toric landscape value ity Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 114

Table 6-39: Detailed Impact Assessment for HPPs Overall

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Impact will be ex- Moderate sensitiv- perience at Region- HPP once built will HPPs will encour- HPP and inunda- ity - Site is near to al Level - DSP pre- Impact will bring Likely probability be irreversible age more develop- Generally benefi- tion once created NA as irreversible POPULATION number of settle- dicts 268 (outdated about modest of impacts occur- hence this will al- ment of the area i.e. cial effect to the will be a one off impact ments that will be figure) properties changes ring ways impact on the With recreation/ area for population event affected affected, but some population tourism empty Low Sensitivity Small - effects on Health effects due Short term effect of noise dust just de- to noise, dust only noise, dust and Cumulative effects Mixed effects - tectable, but maybe Likely probability expected to be Impact of health is- Frequency of health Impact of health is- traffic primarily likely through im- short term adverse more a problem for that scale and im- HEALTH short term during sues would only af- effects will be re- sues has reversible during construction proved health care, on health but bene- transport, and elec- pact prediction will construction – fect local level petitive events effects stage. Electro-mag- sanitation facilities ficial effect long tro-magnetic radi- occur stress possible on netic radiation of population term ations from power directly affected more debateable line corridors people

Employment will HPP would have Likely probability be repetitive event Cumulative effects national impact for that scale and im- Moderate sensitiv- throughout the de- If employment was likely as employ- Generally benefi- EMPLOYMENT/ employment. Es- Modest changes pact prediction will Employment char- ity regarding em- velopment More stopped this would ment creates more cial effect in terms ECONOMIC ACTIV- timate >5,000 em- likely within the af- occur – but some acteristics are re- ployment on loca- work during con- have immediate ef- opportunities for of sustainable ob- ITIES ployment opportun- fected area employment fig- versible tion. struction but then fect sustainably devel- jectives ities (needs con- ures quoted are lower numbers at opment firmation) - questionable! operation

High sensitivity as Regional Effect on infrastructure in- Very large changes Cumulative effects infrastructure by cludes 4 major dam will occur due to Very likely probab- likely as infrastruc- Generally benefi- improving roads The impact once The effects on in- sites, large amount new infrastructure ility that scale and NA as irreversible ture will provide cial effect in terms INFRASTRUCTURE (safety) but power undertake would be frastructure would of road realignment of the dam causing impact prediction impact basis for other op- of sustainable ob- line routes could a one off event be irreversible required. Power inundation, power will occur portunities (tourist jectives have national im- corridors quite ex- corridors, roads etc facilities etc) plications tensive Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 115

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Irreversible - as endemic species (spe- Effect could be Repetitive events as cific plant species High sensitive ef- Almost certain that Cumulative effects overall of interna- Very large changes will be on annual in the canyons, an- fect on flora and impacts occurring likely as flora and Generally adverse tional significance - will occur due to growth cycle and imal species both in FLORA / fauna - blocked fish will effect fish in NA as irreversible fauna, food chain, effect in terms of knock on effects on flooded areas migrations - de- Morača and Skadar FAUNA migration, down- Morača River and impact migratory routes environmental sus- Skadar Lake – caused by dam and pends a lot on oper- Lake) might be- stream effects on downstream Lake etc are generally in- tainability Ramsar site are downstream effects ation of dam. Water come extinct and Skadar Lake Skadar terdependent very important level oscillations then cannot be replaced - fish transfer difficult Mixed effect - loss Effect on land use If inundation was of land - adverse ef- Very likely probab- Cumulative effects Moderately sensit- at Regional level, Impact will bring The impact on land Could be reversible reversed it would fect, but improved LAND USE/ ility that scale and as improved land ive effect on land More than 10km2 about modest use would be a one if dam was emp- take Long Term of productivity SOILS impact prediction use will create oth- use of land will be changes off event tied. >10yrs to reverse planned with re- will occur er opportunities taken effects maining land use - beneficial

No definite probab- Generally adverse Moderately sensit- Small changes Effects would be GEOLOGY/ Effect on geology ility yet as more Effect on geology NA as irreversible Cumulative effect from threat of seis- ive effect on geo- likely to be experi- repetitive due to the SEISMIC could be regional reliable monitoring irreversible impact possible mic activity and logy enced nature of seismicity data is necessary landslide

Highly sensitive Effects could be in- Mixed - Beneficial due to downstream Almost certain that Effects would be Cumulative effect ternational as effect Very Large Effects If reversed it would for water supply - WATER / DRAIN- effects on Skadar effects on scale and repetitive due to the Impacts are revers- as provides water on Skadar Lake is a could result down- take >10 year to Adverse down- AGE Lake, and karstic magnitude will oc- cyclical nature of ible supply for Podgor- transboundary issue stream have effect stream on Skadar groundwater sys- cur flow ica with Albania Lake tems

Low sensitivity from development Effects on air Effects if they oc- Likely probability except dust during would be on a Loc- Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- No cumulative ef- Generally benefi- AIR cur would be just that predicted ef- Immediate construction and air al scale, traffic air ible fects cial tomixed detectable fects would occur emissions from ma- would be reduced chinery and traffic, Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 116

CUMULATIVE / MAGNITUDE/ IN- DURATION / ADVERS / BENE- PARAMETER LOCATION SCALE PROBABILITY FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY SYNERGISTIC TENSITY PERMANENCE FICIAL/ MIXED EFFECTS

Low sensitivity due Effects on a Local Effects if they oc- Odds - Evens prob- to change in micro- scale - humidity in- cur would be just ability that pre- Repetitive event on Impacts are revers- Long term duration No cumulative ef- Generally mixed ef- CLIMATE climate - yet to be creased due to detectable - to be dicted effects climate ible 1-5 years fects fects ascertained reservoirs confirmed would occur

Generally mixed effects adverse in Likely probability Moderate sensitiv- Effects on build- Modest changes in The impact on the The effects on ma- terms of property MATERIAL that scale and im- NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- ity regarding loss ings would be on a the affected area property would be terial assets would loss but beneficial ASSETS pact prediction will impact fects of some buildings Regional scale due to inundation a one off event be irreversible in terms of future occur development opportunities

High sensitivity regarding Morača Effects on cultural Likely probability The effects on cul- Monastery and loss heritage can be on a Repetitive effects Generally adverse CULTURAL HERIT- Effects would be that scale and im- tural heritage NA as irreversible No cumulative ef- of Danilov and National scale due to change in micro- effects as erosion AGE Modest pact prediction will would be irrevers- impact fects Kaluderski Bridges to Morača Monas- climate on cultural heritage occur ible and proximity of tery Duga Monastery

Generally mixed ef- Large changes High sensitivity Effect on landscape Very likely probab- fects adverse in would result from The impact on the due to the nature of at National level as ility that scale and Long term scale No cumulative ef- terms of dams but LANDSCAPE inundation and landscape would be Could be reversible the Morača River referred to as a his- impact prediction >10 years fects beneficial in terms changes to amenity a one off event Canyon toric landscape will occur of reservoir and value their amenity value Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 117

6.4 Assessment of Impacts against SEA Objectives It is important to ensure that the results and evaluation of the impact assessment for the DSP on Morača HPPs are checked against the SEA objectives to see which of the SEA topics are positive (beneficial), which have no effect and which are negative (adverse). Two key questions need to be asked:

• If the impact is negative (adverse), can this be avoided, reduced or compensated for? and • If the impact is positive (beneficial), can it be enhanced?

The answers to these questions then form the basis of the next chapter regarding mitigation measures, which is an integral part of the Montenegrin SEA Law (Article 15 clause 7). The SEA Consultant performed this evaluation based on qualitative technique (involving expert judgement) linked to the grading system shown in the tables in the previous section. These results are shown in Table 6-40 Table 6-40: Classification of Impacts against SEA Objectives Mitigation Enhancement SEA Title of SEA Objective Classification Measures Measures Objective Needed 1 Promote Growth of local and national GNP Very Beneficial 2 Increase Employment Opportunities Beneficial Yes 3 Preserve/Maintain Existing livelihoods Beneficial Yes 4 Improve Quality of Life Mixed/Neutral Yes 5 Preserve Historic Buildings, cultural identity etc Mixed/Neutral Yes 6 Enhance /preserve local structures/landscapes Mixed/Neutral Yes 7 Reduce green-house gas (GHG) emissions Very Beneficial 8 Conservation of biodiversity Adverse Yes 9 Protection of existing nature protected areas Adverse Yes 10 Establish integrated river basin management Mixed/Neutral Yes 11 Minimise /mitigate against loss of agricultural land, Mixed/Neutral Yes seismic hazards, land erosion 12 Uphold appropriate use of mineral resources Mixed/Neutral Yes

The following sections provide discussion on the beneficial, mixed-neutral and adverse impacts.

6.4.1 Discussion on Beneficial Impacts Very Beneficial Impacts The SEA Objective 1 (promotion of growth of local and national GNP) and objective 7 (reduction of green house gas emissions) shows very beneficial impacts. The final outcome of the Morača HPPs will provide substantial energy savings on the provision of power and make Montenegro a net exporter of energy. This will be extremely beneficial for the Montenegrin economy and will improve the local and national GNP. Generation of hydropower will also provide cleaner energy and thus help Montenegro improve its position in reducing GHG emissions.

Beneficial Impacts Beneficial impacts between the SEA objectives and the DSP also include SEA objective 2 (increase in employment opportunities) and SEA objective 3 (preservation/maintaining of existing livelihoods). The DSP for HPPs will most certainly increase employment opportunities for Montenegro and this will also assist in ensuring the sustainability of existing livelihoods.

In terms of enhancement of already positive impacts, provision should be made to ensure that local people are provided every opportunity to be employed in work associated directly with the HPP development or with spinoff activities associated with it; for example in the tourism sector. Employment will partly help to ensure the preservation and maintenance of existing livelihoods. However, it is also important that directly affected people who lose property or land as a result of the development are correctly compensated. Government Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 118

should seek to consider provision of a combination of monetary and land compensation so that people are en- couraged to remain in the area and to pursue their existing livelihoods.

More details of measures to enhance positive impacts are contained in the mitigation plan which is included in the next chapter.

6.4.2 Discussion on Mixed-Neutral Impacts The implementation of the DSP for HPPs with SEA Objective 4 (improve quality of life) is considered overall to have a mixed-neutral impact. There will be some adverse affects primarily during the construction phase of the project. Although it can be stated that the project development will obviously provide positive effects to local people by the provision of employment opportunities (SEA Objective 2), there is also the potential stress to directly affected people that may lose their homes and livelihoods as a result of the project.

These effects can be avoided or appeased (mitigation measures) by having correct compensation procedures in place and public relation officers adequately trained to deal with such consequences prior to the commencement of construction operations. Furthermore, the effects of visual disturbance, noise and dust that will be more pronounced during the construction phase can be appeased to a certain extent by the provision of strategically located vegetated embankments, tree lines that can screen construction sites from view and also absorb noise. Regular watering of roads can also suppress dust from construction traffic and excavation works. Light pollution at night time can also be reduced by provision of low energy bulbs and appropriately placed screens.

The implementation of the DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 5 (preservation of historic buildings, cultural identity etc) is considered to have an overall neutral impact. There will be loss of material assets (existing homes, land, gravesites etc) which may have strong links to cultural identity, the stress on existing cultural monuments (especially Morača Monastery) or the complete loss of cultural heritage (for example Prince Danilov bridge that will be submerged). However the development could bring benefits in terms of financial provision for regular preventative maintenance of buildings such as Morača Monastery, as well as funding for archaeological surveys which would not be possible if the development did not take place.

Appropriate care and consideration needs to be taken by the stakeholders to minimise the loss of cultural heritage. For Morača Monastery, correct procedures for strengthening the surrounding plateau and foundations needs to be implemented. In addition changes to microclimate in and around Morača Monastery also need to be measured and mitigated against with appropriate dehumidifying equipment so that frescos and other icono- graphy are protected. Similar activities should also be employed at Duga Monastery if considered appropriate. It is not possible to replace cultural heritage, so in the case of Prince Danilov and Kaluderski Bridges, a decision needs to be made if this site is considered important enough to be surveyed or rebuilt at a location above the level of inundation. In the case of more ancient sites, the SEA Consultant believes that previous surveys on the area have been of limited extent and a full archaeological survey of affected areas within the inundated areas should be undertaken prior to construction. Consideration of removal of grave sites within planned inundated areas also needs to be arranged with full transparency with the affected families.

The DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 6 (enhance/preserve local structures /landscapes) is considered to have mixed-neutral impact. There will be submergence of substantial areas of existing landscape especially upstream of Andrijevo dam, some which is described as a historic landscape. Furthermore, the encroachment into the Rijeka Mala canyon (Zlatica impoundment) and the near proximity of Mrtivica Canyon (Andrijevo impoundment) and the loss of some cultural heritage features (2 bridges) will also be a concern. However, to counter this statement, the development is likely to lead to improved and regular maintenance of existing cultural features (most notably Morača Monastery) and the resulting landscape of reservoirs (artificial lakes) can provide benefit in terms of scenic and amenity value. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 119

The DSP has proposed some very ambitious plans for tourism and recreation facilities utilising the reservoirs with appropriate planting of indigenous vegetation to help appease this impact, however more details need to be provided especially on the numbers of people to be employed in tourism (~4,000) which appears optimistic.

The implementation of the DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 10 (establish integrated river basin management plan) is considered to have a mixed/neutral impact. Although the provision of the dams will provide an alternative water supply for Podgorica (especially by Zlatica reservoir),a potential irrigated source in summer months and regulate the river flow during floods which all can be considered to be positive effects; this is offset by the disruption of the Morača river flow regime that will in general negatively affect river basin management especially downstream at Lake Skadar principally due to daily peaking operations that may be practiced by the Operator (the specific operational regime for the 4 HPPs is still open to debate). Potential changes to water quality downstream are likely due to a change (“flattening out”) in the flow regime; the Zeta River being more polluted than the Morača River. The “cocktail” flowing into Lake Skadar especially during low flow periods will be different which could upset the current benthos of the river downstream of the confluence with Zeta and within Lake Skadar either positively or negatively. More monitoring of this issue is important prior to further development.

The successful upkeep of SEA Objective 10 will be difficult to achieve when the DSP for HPPs is realised. Ef- forts will need to be made to try and keep the Morača River as close to existing flow conditions as possible. The potential changes to Lake Skadar lake levels as a consequence of the change in river flow and the potential effects to the biota as a result of this, is also a transboundary issue (see Chapter 9) and there should be dialogue with appropriate Albanian authorities to properly regulate all river flows into Lake Skadar/Drim River system especially during periods of stress (i.e. droughts or major floods).

The implementation of the DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 11 (minimise /mitigate against loss of agricultural land, seismic hazards and land erosion) is considered a mixed-neutral impact. About 2.6km2 of agricultural land will be lost (inundated) due to the development. However the DSP is likely to improve agricultural productivity through provision of replacement land and there will be more scope for irrigation in the summer months due to more water supply. Increased seismic knowledge is also likely to occur due to installation of appropriate monitoring equipment.

There will also be a number of rerouted roads to affected settlements which are likely to exacerbate erosion due to the necessary cutting of some forested areas. Provision of new access routes may also assist illegal tree cutting activities in some areas. There is also concern that the area is prone to landslides, for example the Djurdjevine area opposite Morača Monastery has been mapped in the 1980’s and found to be in danger of slid- ing into the base of the valley Such areas may be affected as “slip planes” could become more saturated as a result of inundation.

Provision should be made in the DSP to provide replacement agricultural land areas to the affected farmers, as near as possible to where land is lost. Newly rerouted roads should be installed with appropriate drainage ditches to take away storm water. Adequate policing of illegal logging should be maintained. Exposed surfaces should be re-vegetated with indigenous species as much as possible to prevent runoff from rainfall.

In addition, detailed geotechnical surveys should be undertaken in landslide prone areas, especially Djurdjev- ine (tender procedure for geotechnical investigation is currently underway) and appropriate rainfall intercep- tion trenches installed to prevent against the occurrence of large scale landslide. Furthermore, consideration could be given to enforcing man-induced landslides using explosives prior to inundation. Further investigation of the plateau comprising the foundation for Morača Monastery should also be investigated prior to construction of the Andrijevo dam.

The implementation of the DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 12 (uphold appropriate use of mineral resources) is considered to have a mixed impact. The project is expected to influence sand and gravel extraction industries. Materials are currently mined from the Morača River in the vicinity of Bioce (Zlatica inunda- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 120

tion) and some of which is unlicensed. A way of alleviating this impact would be to consider the provision of alternative sand and gravel extraction sites further downstream from Zlatica that would not be in the inundated areas.

6.4.3 Discussion of Adverse Impacts The DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 8 (Conservation of biodiversity) is considered to have adverse impact due to the potential effect on flora and fauna both within the Morača canyon, but also downstream to Lake Skadar. Each of the dams will affect the flora and fauna differently (for example, Zlatica and Milunovići dams would probably have the strongest effect on fish populations, while Andrijevo and Raslovići dams would probably have the strongest effect on endemic flora) and to a different extent, but the cumulative effect of the 4 dams might be quite strong.

Inundation will affect quite a large area with diverse flora; this impact could be particularly adverse for the species with very narrow range and very specific ecological requirements, such as endemic plant species growing on slopes and cliffs in Morača and Mrtvica Canyons. The construction of four dams will have impacts for fish species in the Morača River. Interruptions and changes to the river flow caused by the dam as a result of hydropower generation are also likely to have effects on Lake Skadar. This is a cause for concern due to the large number of fish spawning areas and bird nesting sites in the shoreline areas around the lake, as well as wetland plants. Some of the species that could be affected are already endangered.

The provision of an adequate minimum flow in the river downstream to Lake Skadar to recreate the present natural conditions is important. Every effort to encourage fish migration upstream as far as Andrijevo dam should be considered, including placement of fish ladders whenever possible. For reaches of river where this is not possible, manual transportation of fish populations by vehicle for release upstream could also be considered. To the SEA Consultant’s knowledge no detailed survey of biodiversity has been undertaken on the Morača River, so this should also be a pre-requisite prior to construction work commencing in order that appropriate mitigation measures can be included in the detailed design.

The implementation of the DSP for HPP in relation to SEA Objective 9 (protection of existing nature protected areas) is considered to be an adverse impact, due to the proximity and downstream effect of Lake Skadar, which is a designated national park and dedicated Ramsar site. Furthermore, the respective encroachment of Zlatica and Andrijevo reservoirs into the Rijeka Mala and Mrtivica canyons is a cause for concern, especially as these areas are special sites for scientific values (potential Emerald Sites).

The successful upkeep of SEA Objective 9 will be difficult, as encroachment into the proposed emerald site cannot be avoided without a reduction in dam height. The stakeholders will need to ensure that the developer reduces the impact of this reservoir as much as possible by planting the necessary indigenous species and by making improvements to the recreational and tourist potential of these areas.

More details of measures to avoid, reduce and appease adverse impacts are contained in the mitigation plan which is included in the next chapter. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 121

7 MITIGATION AND OPTIMISATION MEASURES 7.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) The object of this chapter is to propose potential mitigation and optimisation measures that can prevent, reduce or eliminate to the highest possible extent, any significant negative impacts on the environment that can be caused by the implementation of the DSP. In addition, any positive optimisation measures that can enhance already positive impacts are documented. This chapter complies with the requirements of Article 15:- clause 7 of the Montenegrin Law of SEA.

A major advantage of SEA over project EIA is that is allows consideration of a wider range of mitigation measures, particularly measures to prevent impacts at an earlier more appropriate stage of decision making. It can also allow more sensitive areas to be avoided and environmentally beneficial developments to be pro- moted. It also allows for a wider range of specific environmental/sustainability measures to be taken. The mitigation and optimisation measures are presented in the following order: • Measures that avoid impacts altogether • Measures that partially avoid impacts altogether • Measures that compensate for impacts and • Measures that enhance already positive impacts

Broadly speaking, avoidance of impacts altogether is more preferable than reduction, which in turn is more preferable to reparation and compensation.

7.2 Measures avoiding impacts altogether Health and safety hazards can be completely avoided with the provision of an adequate and clear health and safety working policy: This can be provided by incorporating the following measures:

• Appointment of experience contractors that have a proven track record of good health and safety procedures. • Incorporation of precise safety and environmental requirements into contract documentation. • Adequate capacity building amongst key stakeholders to emphasise the need for safety at work. • Implementation and maintenance of effective speed control measures (for example; speed humps and semi sinuous roads) and clear signage can completely avoid on site/near site related accidents.

Breakdown in trust between stakeholders and the public can be avoided with full transparency shown by all stakeholders on all issues involved on the DSP activities. This can be assisted by:

• Public awareness campaigns focused on the local community informing of what is going on. • Regular involvement of community liaison officers (that need to be adequately trained) concerning all matters that have impact on the public. • Provision of an information centre established within the local area, which has permanent display of proposed developments and is dynamic so it can be regularly updated to chart progress. This facility could also have useful after use as an educational facility for school children visiting the development.

During the construction phase, erosion of exposed areas can be circumvented by employing a working policy that completely avoids such prone areas during adverse weather conditions. In addition potential erosion on new beaches created by the reservoirs can be avoided by employing a policy of keeping the water rest level always slightly below the maximum rest level.

In areas of potential inundation that shows signs of being prone to landslide risk, a policy of enforced collapse/landslide can be adopted, to mitigate against the risk of such an event occurring when the reservoir has been filled. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 122

Solid waste pollution is unsightly, pungent and a contaminating source of water supply and will be generated in large amounts especially during the construction phase due to the building of the HPPs. A policy of regular refuse collection and disposal can completely avoid this impact from occurring. Furthermore, appropriate training of construction workers in proper methods of solid waste disposal will also prevent this impact from occurring.

Burial sites of loved ones are highly cherished by local communities and it can be particularly distressing for families to learn that the resting place for their ancestors will be inundated and inaccessible in the future. The DSP estimates that about 150 graves will be affected by the reservoir inundation and these are all located within the Andrijevo reservoir. A procedure to placate affected people needs to be established within the confines of the necessary law for interment and reburial. Prior to inundation, arrangements need to be made to ensure that all affected graves are disinterred and then reinterred again at demarcated sites. This needs to be undertaken in a very considerate manner with full discretion and respect provided to the affected families and relatives.

Preventative maintenance work on the Morača Monastery needs to be undertaken to circumvent structural cracks that could be caused by subsidence and damage to frescos from high humidity caused by a changes in the micro-climates due to the reservoir inundation. Such work would require excavation of the plateau around existing foundations of the monastery and emplacement of more structurally secure foundations and geotechnical strengthening works. Humidity could be controlled by utilisation of dehumidifiers in the vicinity of the frescos or enclosure of the same in a sealed enclosure with a controlled climate.

7.3 Measures partially avoiding impacts altogether Measures for prevention of risks or problems due to design, construction and operation should be taken in the planning, construction and operation phase. The Authorities should closely monitor the investor’s design plans. Moreover, the Authorities should closely monitor the construction phase, either through the Investor or directly by inspecting the Contractor in order to ensure appropriate construction quality. Regular inspections of operation should be done within the legislative measures and standards.

Good planning and placement of vegetation screens and earthen embankments will provide substantial mitigation from visual, dust, noise and light impacts. Planning of these measures needs to be undertaken in the pre- construction phase. During the construction phase, it will be very important to have such measures implemented as the impact at this time is expected to be the greatest. During the operational phase issues on visual, noise and light disturbance may remain, but the vegetated embankments will be sufficiently mature by this time to absorb and screen these impacts.

It is also important to develop a nursery containing indigenous plant species early on in the construction phase. This nursery will then act as the necessary stocking house for providing landscaping materials. It is important that some of the replacements trees and shrubs are more mature to provide variety to the landscape scene.

The DSP provides indications of 11 upper catchment reservoirs and associated dams many with hydropower facilities. The purpose of these structures besides generating electricity is to control the amount of sedimentation that is brought into the four main reservoirs. It has been estimated that Zlatica could be filled up in 50 years if no mitigation was undertaken.36 It has not yet been proven if dam construction in the upper catchment would be economic and a decision has still not been made whether to proceed, however a simpler structure such as a small weir would suffice. Construction of flood bypass tunnels/channels near the dams should also be considered to take flood waters high in sediment load away from the dam walls.

36 The source of this information was from a personal communication with EPCG and a review of design documentation from the 1980’s. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 123

The Morača River has a rich biodiversity and specific biota, particularly fish species. Provision of appropriate fish ladders within the three smaller dams will allow some fish migration along the Morača River as far as the Andrijevo Dam. Andrijevo Dam seems at the moment too high for fish ladder, but there is intensive research in fish lifts that should be followed in the next steps of the planning phase and implemented if possible. This is considered important to ensure that endemic species remain. Alternatively, manual transportation of endemic species upstream of Andrijevo dam may also be considered.

7.4 Measures that compensate for impacts Disturbance of land and loss of housing and land is a very important issue which is probably the most para- mount of the public’s concerns. Proper provision of compensation to affected people in line with the Montenegrin Law is very important. This applies not only to people directly affected through loss of houses, but also to those with land holdings that may be so reduced that they are no longer viable propositions. In addition, some of the farmers may have been reliant on the river for irrigated supplies.

The compensation policy adopted should not be a totally financial one, as this is likely to make people consider moving away from the area towards the urban centres. Compensation policy should therefore include a “like for like” approach either in terms of land for rebuilding property or for replacement agricultural land of similar quality to allow existing livelihoods to be maintained. Farmers who have lost their irrigated supply should have it replaced free of charge.

It is important that the demolishment and clearing of all buildings and vegetation (mainly trees) in the zone of inundation (in accordance with law) should be undertaken effectively taking full consideration of recycling policies wherever necessary and making appropriate use of the timber whenever possible.

Damage to topsoil and erosion of exposed land areas can be prevented by stripping topsoil and storing for use in the post construction/operation phase.

Limited data on flora and fauna are available, especially in the Morača valley associated with the dams. The commissioning of a full biodiversity survey –with an inventory of all affected areas is considered important to ensure that there are no endemic or other protected species in the areas inundated. This survey should be undertaken as soon as possible to enable any resulting mitigation measures to be incorporated into the final design. This is especially important for any proposed daily peaking or seasonal flow regime which could be strategically altered at specific times to reduce the impact on biota (i.e. during spawning periods for carp).

Fishing in the Skadar Lake Area is done for additional food and income to the families in the wider Skadar Lake area and might be an activity that helps community cohesion and poverty alleviation. As the fish stocks in Skadar Lake might be affected, a socioeconomic survey of commercial fish stocks and potential effect on fisheries on Skadar Lake should be considered and a compensation scheme prepared.

Decrease in wetland area around Skadar Lake should be compensated by protection and enhancement of remaining wetland area and similar wetlands in wider areas.

Furthermore, an archaeological survey – with an inventory of all flooded areas should be undertaken prior to inundation to record anything of importance especially any prehistoric sites that may be present. In addition detailed survey around the Prince Danilov Bridge at Mrtvica Canyon and the Kaludjerski Bridge near Morača Monastery should be undertaken.

Upgrading of the existing infrastructure associated with the HPPs will enable maximum benefits to be obtained by local communities. This could be by upgrading recreation facilities and rehabilitating water supply and sewerage systems, landfills etc. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 124

As the DSP area is prone to earthquake activity (especially Zlatica which is in a higher zone), it is important that an Emergency Response Plan (ERP) which includes an Emergency Evacuation Plan (EEP) is produced and all concerned officers have the necessary training to deal with such an event. Besides the ERP and EEP it is also important that the infrastructure to implement the plan is in place, including the installation of seismic monitoring equipment, warning sirens etc.

7.5 Measures that enhance already positive impacts Provision of recreational viewpoints (including toilet, picnicking facilities etc) at strategic locations overlook- ing the dam sites and reservoirs (especially Andrijevo) will enhance the views of the Morača Canyon and improve the tourism potential of the area. Provision of restaurants and also hotel accommodation at strategically positioned sites around the Andrijevo and Zlatica reservoirs will also enhance tourism potential. The construction of the dams and the spin off effects of subsidiary industry and employment will create a lot of potential job opportunities which is considered a very positive effect for the area. Employment during the construction phase will only be relatively short term (say 5 years), but there will be more permanent positions during the operational phase and similarly spin off industries such as tourism will also create more permanent positions (although they could be based on a seasonal calendar). The developer needs to give priority to employment of local personnel as much as possible to give inputs into the local economy and a “sense of purpose” for the local population. Provision of rural electrification program to the affected villages is considered an enhancement of an already positive impact. The economic benefits from the dam function should also be maximised in terms of flood control, irrigation, water supply (principally Podgorica from Zlatica), eco-tourism, water recreational activities (fishing, boating, hiking) etc. Research should be undertaken on groundwater systems that may be enhanced due to the reservoir impoundments. Raising the water table may provide more groundwater availability further downstream.

7.6 Mitigation Plan The Mitigation Plan (in landscape format) is contained as Table 7-41 below. It should provide a useful basis for decisions makers on the DSP for HPPs to build upon for the future. The Mitigation Plan which is subdivided into socio-economic and environmental issues and further broken down into preventative/mitigation activities to be undertaken during the pre-construction, construction and operational periods of the project development. The Consultant has also provided on the plan indications of responsibilities and a schedule for timing but this cannot be considered to be definitive, but is included to promote discussion and debate on the subject.

Mitigation measures; general: • There is a lack of systematic water quality monitoring for relevant parameters in the area, this should be improved. A transboundary monitoring network with harmonised choice of parameters, frequency of sampling and laboratory methods should be prioritised preferably prior to construction; • Laboratories should be accredited and laboratory inter-comparison exercises should be done on a regular basis in order to improve the reliability of water quality data; • Agricultural and fishing practices should be investigated and runoff from agriculture monitored both for nutrients and pesticides; • The cleaning up of old sediments around factories and industries should be prioritised in order to reduce the release of heavy metals, organo-chemical substances and other toxic and potentially harmful substances to man and biota. Establishment of a seismic monitoring system in zones of reservoir and bodies of dams in accordance with existing technical requirements in Montenegro and modern international prac- tice.

Mitigation measures of particular importance if the hydropower scheme is developed are: • A proper sediment and pollution budget should be set up for the Morača River, in order to improve the understanding of where the sediments and pollutants derive from; Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 125

• Monitoring stations should therefore be upgraded and samples be collected before, during and after the building of the dams; • Sewage treatment plants should be given priority as the current high nutrient levels to a large part are assumed to derive from sewage; • Improved monitoring of suspended sediment transported in the rivers including grain size distribution analyses of suspended sediments – this is also important for the technical requirements of the plants; Impact of water quality on biota should be analysed • The present network of hydrological stations is either poor or data are not made available from all existing stations. A relatively dense network of stations is necessary in order to understand the hydrology of this karstic area where the dynamics of groundwater sinks and sources are only poorly understood. • It is recommended to improve the availability of existing hydrological data. Hydrological data are important for a better understanding of all intended changes to the river system. Daily data should be made available from all existing and past stations. • Improved data exchange between countries should also be prioritised. The SEA has so far not found any useful data from stations in the Drim River just upstream of the confluence with Bojana. Data from the Drim River downstream of the last hydropower dam but upstream the confluence with Bojana would be helpful in order to better understand the dynamics of the water level changes in Skadar Lake. • GIS maps with shape files for relevant layers (contour lines, geology, land use, river courses, etc.) should be prioritised and made available on internet basis, as well as data on biodiversity monitoring. • Monitoring of minimum flow must be carried out. • Establishment of a continuous seismic monitoring system. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 126

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator Pre-Construction Phase SOCIAL - ECONOMIC • Appoint experienced contractors • Incorporate safety and environmental requirements in contract documents. • Provide information on mitigating safety and warning measures; • Capacity building to emphasis need for safe working environ- • Investor in consulta- Human • Potential Health and Safety ment, good supervision, • Ensure completed prior tion with relevant hazards: • Careful planning and scheduling of work activities to construction Health stakeholders • Involve communities, • Public awareness campaign • Fence hazardous areas. • Correct design and safety procedures, • Correct disposal of waste, Health – • Potential noise disturbance • Pre-Preparation of noise barriers (earthen banks and trees) to ab- • Prior to main HPP and • Investor (Noise) from Construction works sorb noise dam construction works • Pre-preparation of specific screened areas by pre-planting tree Health – • Potential light disturbance in • Prior to main HPP and belts, light barriers around construction sites, worker camps, • Investor (Lighting) specific areas of settlement dam construction works workshops ENVIRONMENTAL • Use of public land areas as much as possible; • Disturbance of land use and • • Provision for proper compensation in accordance with Try and solve as soon as economic activities. possible after public Montenegrin Law. • Investor in consulta- • Loss of housing. consultations and grant- Land Use • Provision of new land in accordance with Montenegrin law tion with relevant • Loss of land. ing of permission, espe- • stakeholders • Appropriate care and consideration provided to affected people. cially before construc- Loss of traditional irrigated • supplies. Provide for alternative or regulated irrigated supply. tion.

• Prior to commencement • Potential loss of species that • Investor in consulta- • Undertake appropriate biodiversity survey within the affected of construction period Biodiversity may be important through tion with relevant area so that appropriate mit- lack of baseline data. stakeholder igation measures can be Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 127

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator incorporated into final design. • Prior to commencement • Potential loss of pre- of construction period • Investor in consulta- Cultural historic/archaeological sites • Undertaken appropriate archaeological survey within the af- so that appropriate mit- tion with relevant that may be important due to fected area igation measures can be Heritage stakeholder lack of baseline knowledge. incorporated into final design. Construction Phase SOCIAL - ECONOMIC • Maintain strict health and safety regulations in compliance with Montenegrin law. • Provide regular information/signage on site regarding mitigating safety and warning measures; • Continued capacity building to emphasis need for safe working Human • Work related accidents dur- • Investor and Contract- • Continuously through environment, good supervision, Health ing construction. or the Construction phase • Careful planning and scheduling of work activities during construction phase. • Maintain regular contact with communities, • Fence-off hazardous areas. • Undertake correct disposal of waste water and solid waste, Health – • Road accidents exacerbated • Continuously through • Implement and maintain effective speed control measures • Contractor Road Safety by construction traffic the Construction phase • Try and limit construction times to daylight hours as much as Health – • Noise and vibration disturb- possible. • Continuously through (Noise/ ance from Construction • Contractor • Keep public informed for on-site activities likely to cause dis- the Construction phase Vibration) works. turbance (using local media) • Dust in the atmosphere Health – • Continuously through caused by blasting, quarrying • Use dust suppression techniques (watering) throughout • Contractor (Dust) the Construction phase and construction traffic. Health – • Potential light disturbance in • Use non intrusive lighting in operational areas as much as pos- • Continuously through • Contractor (Lighting) specific areas of settlement sible. the Construction phase Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 128

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator • New settlements to be located near to existing ones. • Good planning of social infrastructure (roads, footpaths, foot • Poor planning of resettlement • Investor and Contract- • Continuously through Infrastructure bridges across reservoirs, consideration given to cycling routes, infrastructure or the Construction phase water services, school, healthcare, public administration offices, public spaces and etc.) • Unsightly and vacated build- • Demolish and clear all buildings designated to be in zone of in- • Continuous operation ings in inundated zone which undation in accordance with the appropriate law. Infrastructure • Contractor during the Construction can cause danger to recre- • Make appropriate use of recycling materials wherever possible phase ational use as a reservoir (i.e. cables, pipe work etc). • Full transparency between stakeholders and the public on all DSP activities. • Look to the provision of an “information centre” established • Investor and Contract- Public • Breakdown of trust between within the DSP area with a permanent display of proposed devel- • As soon as construction or in consultation with stakeholders and the public. opments. This centre would then have an after use during the activities commence Relations relevant stakeholders operational phase and be combined with a tourist/recreational area. • Appropriate training of Public Relation Officers • Provision of sufficient information to communities and ensuring • Poor communication on the the proactive participation of the affected population in the reset- resettlement process tlement process. • Trauma and stress of local • Appropriate care and respect to the resettlement of affected • Investor and Contract- • As soon as possible Resettlement population in the resettlement people (many who may be infirmed or elderly) to reduce the or in consultation with once resettlement areas process traumatic experience of moving. relevant stakeholders are available. • Limited institutional capacity • Ensure the necessary institutional capacity of responsible author- of responsible authorities ities/stakeholders involved in the expropriation/compensation and resettlement affairs. • Large amount of existing un- • Continuously through Employment • Maximise/ prioritise employment opportunities for local people • Investor / Contractor employment the Construction phase ENVIRONMENTAL • Disturbance to natural habit- • Careful placement, alignment, design of dam site ancillary • Contractor in con- Flora and • Continuous during con- ats especially during un-sea- works, pipelines and structures and or timing of work (seasonal sultations with relev- struction phase Fauna sonal working, changes in en- working) especially for any rare /sensitive species ant stakeholders Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 129

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator • Protect sensitive locations of terrestrial and aquatic biota near construction sites. • Ensure minimum flow of river is maintained for biota downstream. • Select appropriate construction methods that are less harmful and vironmental regimes etc. less noisy. • Consider putting surface structures (i.e. power house – underground) • Consider burying electrical, telephone cables. • Reduction in artificial lighting within limits of safety. • Existing trees and • Appropriate clearance of all shrubs and trees within the • Contractor in con- shrubs in area of inundation • Continuous during con- Flora zone of inundation, making full use of timber produced wherever sultations with relev- pose a danger to recreational struction phase. possible. ant stakeholders. use of reservoir. • Loss of indigenous ve- • Develop nursery for indigenous plants so that there is a • Contractor in con- • Continuous during con- Flora getation due to construction wider variety (in terms of maturity) of planting available for af- sultations with relev- struction phase. works. fected areas and areas designated for landscaping. ant stakeholders. • Develop Plans during • Develop an Emergency Response Plan in case of earth- construction phase. quakes, including most importantly an Emergency Evacuation • Potential danger of • Develop Infrastructure Plan for population prone areas downstream in case of dam wall • Contractor in con- Geology/ dam failure from earthquake during construction failure. sultations with relev- or earthquake induced land- phase. Seismic • Develop infrastructure for Emergency Response Plan im- ant stakeholders. slide. • plementation (warning signals, evacuation routes etc). Install monitoring net- • Installation of sophisticated seismic monitoring network. work during construction. • Potential leakage of impoun- • Undertake full scale survey of hydrogeology characterist- ded water due to the outcrop- ics within potential reservoir flood areas. ping karstic rocks which will • Investor and Contract- Hydro- • Undertake more detailed survey for groundwater leakage • During the construction be below the reservoir rest or in consultation with geology at Zlatica to further understand hydro geological characteristics. phase. water level (most relevant to • relevant stakeholders. Andrijevo). Prevention of loss/leakage of impounded water to the groundwater by using impermeable materials in construction? • Potential leakage of ground- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 130

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator water from Zlatica due to geological phenomenon. • Damage to soil structure due to material storage, construc- • Protect non-construction areas, avoid work in sensitive areas tion traffic, etc during highly adverse conditions, restore damaged areas Soils • Loss of topsoil during excav- • Continuous during con- • Strip topsoil as necessary and store, replace/reuse post construc- • Contractor . ation. struction phase. tion • Erosion due to uncontrolled • Design drainage +disposal facilities to ensure soil stability. surface run off and wastewater discharge: • Damage to land during construction. Landslides on em- • Protect non-construction areas. bankments, hillsides etc. • Design works to minimise land affected. • Contractor and In- • Continuous during con- Land • Impacts from excavation for • Design slopes to and retaining structures to minimise risks, vestor. struction phase. disposal of soil and other ma- provide appropriate drainage, soil stabilisation/vegetation cover. terials. • Interruption of surface drainage patterns during construction, creation of unsightly • Undertake careful design, maintain natural drainage where pos- areas of standing water sible, and provide suitable wastewater drainage, • Contractor in con- Water • Contamination/pollution by • Safe and sanitary disposal of any hazardous wastes. • Continuous during consultation with relevant Resources construction, human and an- • Adequate protection from / control of livestock, agriculture, cas- struction phase. stakeholders. imal waste, including fuel ual human contact, hazardous materials – fuel oil etc (including and oil spills, hazardous suitable storage) waste, wastewater etc

• Control dust with water, control construction methods and plant, • Dust and fumes during con- • Attempt to schedule work during more socially amenable times. • Continuous during con- Air Quality struction/ rehabilitation activ- • Control vehicle speeds in surrounding/ residential areas. • Contractor. struction phase. ities • Ensure local community is kept fully informed about the construction activities and blasting routines Acoustic • Noise disturbance from con- • Time work to minimise disturbance. • Contractor. • Continuous during con- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 131

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator • Appropriate construction methods + equipment struction works and traffic (if • Restrict through traffic in residential areas. Environment struction phase. near houses) • Careful siting and/or design of long term construction plant, • provide noise baffle barriers i.e. embankments, tree bands. • Disturbance or degradation to known cultural sites i.e. Mor- • Careful siting alignment of construction/ rehabilitation works. • ača Monastery • Special measures to protect known cultural resources – Founda- As soon as possible dur- • Weak foundations at Morača tion reinforcement and embankment/plateau strengthening at ing the construction phase. Historical / Monastery Morača Monastery. • Contractor in con- • As soon as possible dur- Cultural • Undercutting of small stream • Installation of humidity monitoring equipment. sultation with relevant ing the construction • stakeholders. Sites at Morača Monastery. Reroute small stream at Morača Monastery. phase. • • Inundation of Danilov and Undertake detailed survey of Danilov and Kaluderski Bridges • Only in the event of oc- • Kaluderski Bridges Immediately halt work in vicinity of new discoveries, pending currence • Disturbance to undiscovered instruction from relevant authorities cultural/archaeological sites. • Inundation of burial places • Appropriate consideration to graveyard (involving re-interment) Cultural • Investor in consulta- • At the commencement within settlements affected. that may be affected by the inundation. To be undertaken in a Heritage - tion with relevant of construction phase Principally as a result of Zlat- considerate manner with full discretion and respect to the af- stakeholders and before inundation Graves ica and Andrijevo inundation. fected families and relatives. • Mitigate and prevent against solid waste pollution during construction phase. • Contractor in con- Solid • Minimize disturbance from • Continuous operation • Construction workers to be properly briefed regarding garbage sultation with relevant during the construction Waste Solid Waste disposal disposal and protection of the environment. stakeholders • Organise appropriate refuse collection and disposal regime Completion /Operation Phase SOCIAL ECONOMIC • Benefits from increased power generation (primarily financial) • Maximize local economic be- • Progressive develop- should be put back into the local communities and national eco- • Economy nefits due to power genera- nomies. Investor ment throughout the Op- erational Phase tion • Local communities in the affected areas should be prioritised/re- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 132

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator warded though introduction of rural electrification programs as much as possible. • Look to increasing potential for irrigation, flood control, water supply (potentially for Podgorica - Zlatica), potential eco tourism, water recreational activity (fishing, boating, hiking), and • • Progressive develop- Maximize economic benefits corresponding communities enjoying an improved standard of • Economy living. Investor ment throughout the Op- due to dam function erational Phase • Also important to assess the potential for improved groundwater, surface water management (especially downstream) due to the altered flow regimes. • Improvement to ancillary infrastructure associated with the HPP constructions to enable maximum benefit to be obtained from local communities and consequent improvement in the standard of living of the indigenous inhabitants by the constructing new • Degradation of existing infra- • On commencement of Infrastructure roads, improved tourism, and a road network to camps for im- • Investor operational phase structure in the area proved eco tourism. • upgrading recreation and sanitation facilities such as water supply and sewerage systems, water service networks and landfills etc Social/ Recre- • Sudden flood events due to ational activ- i) operation of power station • slow pre-described start and stop procedure of the power stations • Before start of the • Investor/ Operator ities along the ii) unforeseen natural flood • warning system downstream the power stations and reservoirs power station operation river events ENVIRONMENTAL • Implement methods for upstream/ downstream fish movement (i.e. sodium lamps, fish ladders on lower dams (Andrijevo not • Fish migration issues (i.e. Biodiversity possible with present technology), acoustic devices etc) and pre- • Investor in consulta- • As soon as possible prevention of some river fish Flora and vention of ingress at power intakes (by placing screens) to re- tion with relevant after construction is species reaching spawning duce fish mortality rates and damage to fish that can pass stakeholders completed Fauna grounds), through hydraulic turbines or spillways. Also consider manual transportation of fish stock. Biodiversity • Loss of some wetland areas • Protection and enhancement of the remaining wetlands by pre- • Investor in consulta- • From start filling the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 133

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator Flora and venting agricultural use and/or ensure extensive use and manage- tion with relevant reservoirs Fauna ment stakeholders • Control of illegal gravel extraction and limited licensing for Biodiversity • Loss of some fish spawning gravel extraction • From start filling the Flora and • Investor/Operator grounds • Adequate control of seasonal flow and general water release pat- reservoirs Fauna terns • River flow reduction that will • From start filling the Aquatic Life • Ensure release of minimum flow from the reservoirs at all times • Investor/Operator affect aquatic life reservoirs • Daily fluctuation in river • Avoid peak operation whenever possible and alter regime to suit • From start filling the Aquatic Life flow that will affect aquatic • Investor/Operator specific issue; i.e. spawning time for carp. reservoirs life • Consideration to construct flood bypass tunnels/channels near • At commencement of impoundments to take flood waters (high in sediment load) away Operational Phase. • Sedimentation of reservoirs. from the dam walls. • Construction of small-scale weirs in the upper catchments to trap • At commencement of It is estimated that Zlatica Sedimentation earth and sands caused by heavy rainfall and subsequent removal • Investor/Operator Operational Phase. could be filled in 50 years if by dredging (this is now included in the DSP but further details no mitigation is undertaken. are awaited). • Continuous operation • Undertake sediment dredging routines to be adopted in com- throughout the life of pleted main reservoirs. the dam and reservoir • re-cultivated exposed surfaces (using native vegetation) immediately after completion of construction work. However if there are specific erosion “hot spots”, then these must be immediately re- • Erosion of top soil after con- • During the Defects Li- Soils habilitated; • Investor/Operator struction ability Period • Encourage soil deposits from excavation/ extraction works to be re-used in the vicinity of the works either for landscaping works by the developer or by local farmers, inhabitants, community etc. • Beach Erosion along • Continuous operation • Take measures to avoid beach erosion around edge of reservoir Soils shorelines created by reser- • Investor/Operator throughout the life of by keeping reservoir level slightly below maximum. voirs the dam and reservoir Aesthetics • Localized visual impacts of • Careful siting and design of works, screening of intrusive items. • Investor in consulta- • End of construction and completed works • Replace lost trees boundary structures, re-vegetate work areas. tion with relevant period and prior to the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 134

Table 7-41: Mitigation Plan for Morača HPPs

Topic/ Possible Impact Mitigation Measures Responsibility Schedule Indicator • Some intrusions in general • Careful decommissioning of construction areas and disposal of manmade and natural land- commencement of Op- Landscape wastes. stakeholders scape from loss of trees, ve- erational Phase • Improvements to dam profiles by improving design getation etc • Damage to frescos at Morača • Provide appropriate screening/dehumidifiers for the fresco’s, Monastery monitoring and follow-up studies. • Potential subsidence causing • Necessary monitoring and follow-up studies (preventative main- • At the commencement • Investor in consulta- Cultural structural damage to Morača tenance) on existing cracks in the walls of the Monastery of operational phase and tion with relevant Monastery walls • then regularly through- Heritage Ensuring the provision of improved visitors infrastructure near stakeholders • Damage to important icono- Morača monastery out the operation. graphy or other relevant • Considerations to the provision of a visitor’s/tourists centre in items at Duga Monastery. the vicinity of the dam to promote cultural heritage of the area. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 135

8 ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES 8.1 Introduction (purpose of chapter) It is a prerequisite of the Montenegrin SEA Law that analysis of alternatives should be undertaken. Article 15 clause 8 of the Law states that reasons must be outlined for the selection of alternatives that have been considered and descriptions on their method of assessment, including any potential difficulties that have occurred during the formulation of required data (such as technical data or absence of know how). The Assessment of alternative includes the “do nothing” option, mentioned as the “zero alternative” under the SEA law, which is also a statutory requirement.

The DSP does not provide any other alternatives to the existing development of multi-purpose accumulations on the Morača River. The 11 upper catchment reservoirs can also be discounted in this case as they are only at a very early stage and a decision on their construction has yet to be made. Notwithstanding, if they were to proceed the 11 dams and associated power plants would be subject to further feasibility studies and SEA.

In addition, other alternative designs to the existing 4HPPs arrangement have also been postulated in the past and the recent IFC (Draft) Technical Consultant’s Report has also provided some ideas for consideration of different arrangements to reduce the operational level of the Andrijevo Reservoir to mitigate against landslip in the vicinity of Djurdjevine; relocation of the power plant in Andrijevo due to the danger of rock fall etc. The fundamental issue remains however is that any major deviation from the existing 4HPPs option would involve considerable redesign.

The SEA Consultant believes that there is a facility in the planned tendering process for interested bidders to suggest alternatives to the existing arrangement and this is a good idea to assess if other innovative solutions are forthcoming.

However, for the purposes of comparison the SEA Consultant can only evaluate the proposed development with the “do nothing” option.

8.2 Do Nothing Option

A review of the “Do Nothing” option is a routine part of the SEA and the EIA process and it is undertaken in order to provide a benchmark against which changes that are proposed as part of the DSP can be measured. An assessment of the advantages and disadvantages has been performed as a purpose of comparison with the 4 HPPs option.

The preparation of the environmental baseline (Chapter 3) to ascertain the existing environmental status of the area provides the starting point for the “Do Nothing” option.

We need to know answers to the following questions: • What is presently happening in the area and what are the current trends? and • What will be the envisaged outcome?

The assessment has been performed in terms of economic, social and environmental effects on the assumption that the DSP for HPPs on the Morača did not go ahead.

8.2.1 Economic Effects

Adverse Effects If no power plants are built on the Morača River, this is likely to increase the reliance on imported power which could be problematic and would have both direct and indirect effects. Power blackouts Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 136

could increase leading to loss of productivity, higher costs for energy, which in turn would lead to reduced profit margins, low competitiveness and increased redundancies.

Without the HPPs, Montenegro is likely to lose its geo-political status in the region as a potential key exporter of energy. Indirect effects through power shortages would also include a loss of business (including tourism) and investor confidence in Montenegro and a potential fall in the rate of growth in GDP.

Existing agricultural output in the project area, although limited, could also be affected by climate change as more prolonged periods of drought may occur. This would put increasing demands upon water supplies and make it more expensive to grow food.

The rerouting of the Bar - Boljare road which would go ahead even despite of the DSP could also lead to a reduction of business within the settlements of the Morača Valley. These settlements currently lie on the main route connecting Podgorica with Belgrade. Cultural sites, such as Morača Monastery may also witness a fall in visitor numbers as the route of the new road is much further to the east im- plying that visiting the site would involve making a detour which may not be a priority for tourists. On the other hand, tourism based on outdoor activities and unspoiled nature may develop.

Beneficial Effects The impending closure/reduced level of working at KAP has generally eliminated the electricity deficit that existed in Montenegro. This implies that power outages in the short term future may not be as problematic as they were, but rehabilitation of the power network will still remain a priority and demand is still rising. Not proceeding with the Morača HPPs could perhaps motivate the Government to giving higher priority to improving the state of the existing power network and by introducing incent- ives for reducing on wastage and improving efficiency of existing energy installations.

8.2.2 Social Effects

Adverse Effects No hydropower facilities on the Morača River is likely to lead to an increase in domestic electricity prices that could have a disproportionate effect on the more vulnerable sectors of society, who would have little or no scope for switching energy sources.

Any downturn in industrial activity as mentioned in Section 8.2.1 could also exacerbate the already high levels of unemployment in Montenegro, which exceeds 28.5% in some areas of Kolasin Muni- cipality, and limit the success of initiatives for new businesses and self-employment and thus de-motivate the people. The most critically affected areas could be the main towns in the central region (including Kolasin). Further increases in unemployment may also lead to increases in crime and anti social behaviour offences. High unemployment can also lead to damage to people’s health through increased incidence of alcoholism and stress related disorders.

The current demographic trend of the project area is also one of an increasingly ageing population. Data shows a net migration of younger people to the main centres of population such as Podgorica or abroad. This trend is likely to increase as the economy deteriorates in the Project area. An ageing population will need increasingly more care and assistance services putting more financial demands on the Montenegrin Government.

Beneficial Effects The potential worry and stress of local people living in fear of losing their homes and land would be dissipated if the project did not proceed. Furthermore traditional lifestyles of the people living in the area would remain, gravesites would not be disturbed and the potential fear of living downstream of a dam that may fail would not be present. Not having the dams would also take away the potential influx of workers and tourists to the area which could distress local people. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 137

Furthermore, with the rerouting of transportation due to the Bar – Boljare road, the environmental conditions in the area could improve because of decreased noise and air pollution levels as well as transport safety. Hence, the area could be more attractive for living and tourism development (e.g. for outdoor activities such as hiking, fishing, bird watching); it could be expected that people would move into Zlatica area because of its vicinity to Podgorica.

8.2.3 Environmental Effects

Adverse Effects Climate change is presently affecting the area; HMI indications have already shown a slight rise in temperature and World Bank indicators show that temperatures will rise markedly in Eastern Europe within the next 100 years. It is therefore likely that the area will be more subjected to extreme events (flash floods and prolonged periods of drought). The base flow from Morača River could reduce even further in the summer months and put pressure on existing flora and fauna within the Morača River valley and downstream in Lake Skadar. Climate change is also likely to negatively influence existing agricultural practices.

A reduction in electricity supply potential mentioned above could increase demand for wood fuel to meet short term domestic needs, especially in the villages and more remote rural areas. This could put increased pressure on forest resources by stimulating illegal logging or excessive felling rates in sensitive areas, which in turn could exacerbate the potential for landslides and rock falls through erosion, as vegetation cover is removed.

The Morača Monastery is currently suffering from poor preventative maintenance and the frescos have already been affected by damp. This trend is likely to continue without injection of more investment.

Lack of power supply could also cause temporary or even permanent closure of heavy industry and quarrying sites in the wider area that if unattended, could result in environmental pollution and land degradation. Lake Skadar would still be subject to pollution from industrial sources in Niksic (via the Zeta River) and from Podgorica. The trend in pollution may get worse if there is decline in industrial output with factories closing or not being properly maintained.

Pressures on Skadar Lake are also likely to continue with demand for water supply increasing. Groundwater abstraction from nearby Lake Skadar to supply tourist resorts on the Adriatic coast will still go ahead and there is likelihood that the other HPPs planned in Albania on the Drim River will go ahead, which could affect the water balance of the lake in a negative way.

Beneficial Effects With the absence of dams and reservoirs on the Morača River the area itself, the nutrient flow and siltation in Morača and into the Skadar lake would remain unchanged and existing flora and fauna would remain unaffected with the exception of climate change (as previously discussed). However there is an increased chance of biodiversity improving if planned tourism is curtailed.

Because of the Bar-Boljare road, the Morača area would be under less pressure by the through transport and related environmental impacts (noise, air pollution, safety).

Another benefit would be that views of the landscape of the area would remain unaltered and hence the spectacular views of the Canyon would remain for people to enjoy. 8.3 Comparison of the 4HPPs with the Do Nothing Option

The SEA Consultant has undertaken a comparison of the 4HPP Option and the Do Nothing Option. This is summarised on the Table 8-1 below Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 138

Table 8-1: Comparison of the 4HPPs Option with the Do Nothing Option 4HPPs OPTION DO NOTHING OPTION Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages • Current state of KAP semi-closure could • Compensation issues will be problematic. • Current state of KAP semi-closure could • Increased reliance on imported power. eliminate electricity deficit, hence provid- • Increased production will lead to increased eliminate electricity deficit. • Potential increase in power tariffs. ing more power for export. • Lack of power options could stimulate • demand on services. • Loss of geo-political status. Would provide substantial income from Government to act on reducing on wastage power export. and improving efficiency of existing energy • Potential fall in GDP. • Would reduce foreign exchange deficit. installations. • • Loss in business and investor confidence. Would reduce current power deficit. • • Improve geo-political status in the region Increased unemployment in the region. • • Stimulate industrial production and other Lower industrial productivity by black outs. Economic business opportunities Factors • Stimulate the local economy • More opportunity for tourism/amenities. • A strategic water supply is secured which will become increasingly important due to climate change • Improved transport links • Opportunities for investment • Could provide catalyst for improved energy efficiency measures

• Provide short term and long term employ- • Stress from fear of living below dams. • Traditional lifestyles of people living in • Health affect on most vulnerable citizens due ment opportunities. • Disturbance during construction. Morača valley would remain. to tariff increases. • • Affected people will be properly com- • Stress of dam failure from natural cata- Population in the area will continue to decline • Loss of traditional lifestyles. pensated in terms of land and financial con- strophe is eliminated • Average age of population will continue to in- • Loss of land and housing. tributions. • The area would become more pleasant and crease. Social • Reverse decline in migration. • Inundation of graves implies relocation. safer to live in as transport redirected to Bar • Passive, demotivated population due to lim- Factors • Improved health care opportunities. • Increased demand on existing social ser- – Boljare road; ited success of initiatives for new businesses vices due to worker influx. • Tourism based on outdoor activities could and self-employment • Improved well being due to improved eco- develop. • Potential increases in crime and anti social be- nomy of the area. • haviour as economic conditions decline. Opportunity for improved education. • Potential increase in health related disorders • Potential improvement in fabric of society. such as depression and alcoholism • • All reservoirs would provide new habitat • Change in overall flow regime affects flora Existing habitats for flora and fauna are • Drop in tourism due to inaccessibility and for wildlife. and fauna downstream as well as upstream preserved new routing of Bar Boljare Road • (reservoirs acquire lake-like Integrity of the Morača landscape and the Environmental • Landscape of lakes created. • Risk of increased pollution and land degrada- characteristics). canyon are preserved. Factors • Contribution of clean energy. • tion due to abandonment of industry due to • Conservation status of Skadar Lake as a site Stress from development and increased poor power situations • Morača Monastery and the plateau it over- of international importance (Ramsar site, tourism is diminished • • Increased power costs stimulate illegal lies will be properly maintained and pre- IBA) can be threatened due to decline/loss Environmental effects of through transport Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 139

4HPPs OPTION DO NOTHING OPTION Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages served for the future. of endemic species and habitats for migrat- would be reduced due to through transport forestry thereby increasing risks of erosion • Opportunities for increase in archaeological ory birds. redirected to Bar – Boljare road. and landslides • knowledge due to necessary surveys. • Daily peaking can affect flora and fauna Climate change affecting base flow of river which may lead to natural loss of biodiversity • Opportunity to learn more about the flora downstream. and fauna of the area due to necessary sur- • Threat of landslide (Djurdjevine). veys. • Changes to Microclimate may affect cultur- • Some downstream benefit from flow regu- al heritage. lation such as reduced risks from floods and • Loss of landscape (especially historical improved water quality during summer landscape of Morača Monastery). months. • Possible improvements to environment for • Loss of locally important bridges (Danilov tourism (water quality). and Kaludjerski). • Improved water supply for irrigation practices in summertime Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 140

As Table 8-1 shows, there are more advantages to be gained from having the 4HPPs than remaining with the Do Nothing Option. However, the scale of the advantages differs widely as they might affect different size of populations, different areas and some of the disadvantages might have irreversible effects. Moreover, while it is fairly easy to estimate the economic effect of the HPPs themselves, it is much more difficult to estimate all their external costs or the external costs of the “do nothing” option.

Although the Do Nothing Option outlined above is most probably a ‘worst case’ scenario it does outline the generally adverse social, economic and environmental consequences that could result from not realising the DSP. Clearly there is a need to meet future energy needs and the existing energy strategy that reduces the need for energy imports and seeks to balance supply and demand within the country is obviously pragmatic and justifiable.

However, there is also well documented evidence (Draft SEA for Energy Strategy, letters from NGOs etc) that current energy usage in Montenegro is both wasteful and inefficient, and that large quantities of electricity are ‘lost’ in the system. Furthermore, with the impending closure of KAP in Podgorica, there is suddenly a large potential electricity surplus available to meet consumption.

Consequently there is justification that all aspects of the Energy Strategy are adhered to and undertaken in a progressive and logical manner. Prioritisation of the rehabilitation of existing electricity power plants at Piva and Perucica, and the thermal plant at Pljevlja should therefore progress in parallel with development of Mor- ača. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 141

9 OUTLINE OF POTENTIAL TRANSBOUNDARY IMPACTS In accordance with the Montenegrin Law for SEA, Article 15 clause 9, there is a requirement to outline the potential significant transboundary impacts on the environment that will be created by the Morača HPP Develop- ment. In addition, Article 23 of the same law requires Montenegro to exchange information on transboundary impacts with respective states.

As a signatory to the requirements of the Espoo Convention and the associated Kiev Protocol, Montenegro also upholds to notify other states regarding projects that may impinge across international boundaries.

Further, as a signatory to Ramsar Convention (i.e. Skadar Lake), Montenegro signals a commitment to work actively to support the “three pillars” of the Convention; one which requires consulting with other Parties, especially with regard to transboundary wetlands, shared water systems, and shared species.

9.1 Existing dialogue with Albania in a Transboundary Context Montenegro has a good relationship with Albania and has been in active discussions regarding issues focusing on Skadar Lake for many years. The dialogue between the two governments on issues related to the Skadar Lake environment began in 1994. However, it was not until 2003 that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the protection and sustainable development of Lake Skadar was formally signed that committed to:

• Conserving the natural resources of the lake in a coordinated and integrated manner, • Establishing a bilateral Lake Management Commission, and • Improving relevant national level regulatory and institutional capacities.

In the last few years the governments of the two countries have acknowledged the possible impact of further degradation of the lake’s natural resource base in their development goals, and made plans for the conservation of Skadar Lake and its basin.

More recently the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) has approved a grant of Mil US$ 4.55 to implement Lake Skadar Integrated Ecosystem Management Project (LSIEMP). The key project development objective is: to maintain and enhance the long-term economic value and environmental services of Lake Skadar and its natural resources LSIEMP will pursue an integrated approach to land and water management issues. This will involve promoting cross-sectoral, multi-stakeholder cooperation for improved environmental quality in the Skadar Lake region.

The project aims to help establish and strengthen institutional mechanisms for transboundary cooperation through joint efforts to: (a) improve understanding of the lake ecosystem and potential impacts of development; (b) promote an increase in authorized sustainable uses of lake resources; and (c) demonstrate pollution reduction

9.2 Issues of Importance Most of the impacts from this SEA appear to be local or regional significance; however there are a few issues that need to be mentioned, because they have potential transboundary importance and should be discussed with Albania.

As elaborated earlier, the proposed HPPs will make a change to the flow regime of the Morača River. The proposed development will have the effect of “flattening out” the peaks and the troughs of the river’s annual flow cycle and creating more of a constant flow condition. In addition, the proposed “daily peaking” operations that are required to satisfy customer electricity demand may also cause some downstream effects. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 142

Current flow conditions of the river involve a period of very low flow during the summer – autumn months and higher flow during the winter to spring months. An increase in flow due to the dams in the summer/autumn months may improve throughflow in Skadar Lake which may help reverse the current trend of eutrophic conditions. However, this may also cause lake levels to be slightly affected, which in turn may affect;

• Nesting habits of transitory or indigenous birds that may use the lake. • Spawning habitats/or the general life cycle of fish that inhabit the lake and rivers, which in turn may affect fishing grounds and fishing habits of local fishermen

It has been shown in earlier chapters that the water level in Skadar Lake is principally influenced by the Drim River system from Albania; the Morača River only providing 21% of the total flow into Lake Skadar. How- ever monitoring data is poor and there is obvious need for a more thorough analysis to confirm these assumptions.

This emphasises the need for dialogue with Albania as there are other developments to consider including:

• Plans to build further dams and hydropower projects on the Drim River in Albania that may affect the flow into Bojana River and backflow into Skadar Lake. • Plans to abstract groundwater that currently flows into Skadar Lake and use for water supply on the Adri- atic Coast (which is currently underway) • Plans to dredge the Bojana River which may alter the flow “back surge” into the lake • Plans by Albania to construct a nuclear power station on the banks of the Bojana River and use the river water as a coolant.

Albania and Montenegro must also consider dialogue on regional water management practices and initiatives (including HPPs) especially during times of seasonal low flow in the region or drought conditions to ensure adequate minimum flow reaches Skadar Lake in the future. This is becoming even more important due to the long term climate change predictions that forecast increased temperatures, prolonged droughts and excessive flood events for the Eastern Mediterranean in the years to come. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 143

10 MONITORING INDICATORS In accordance with Montenegrin Law; most notably SEA Law Article 15 clause 10, there is a requirement for a description of the environmental status monitoring programmes (including human health) during the implementation of plan and programs to be provided.

10.1 Monitoring Programme As the DSP for HPPs is likely to have significant environmental effects, it is important that the implementation of the project is monitored before, during construction and during operations, to identify any unforeseen adverse effects and to enable appropriate remedial action to be taken.

Monitoring also allows the actual significant environmental effects of implementing the DSP for HPPs to be tested against those predicted. It thus helps to ensure that any problems which arise during implementation, whether or not they were foreseen, can be identified and future predictions made more accurately.

Follow up monitoring as recommended by the SEA is used to answer questions such as:

• Were the assessment’s predictions of environmental effects accurate? • Is the plan or programme contributing to the achievement of desired environmental objectives and targets? • Are the mitigation measures performing as well as expected? • Are there any adverse environmental effects? Are these within acceptable limits, or is remedial action desirable?

In describing the envisaged monitoring programme the SEA Consultant assessed the following Six Steps to design an outline of an appropriate monitoring program:

• Step 1: What needs to be monitored? • Step 2: What sort of information is required? • Step 3: What are the existing sources of monitoring information? • Step 4: Are there any gaps in the existing information, and how can they be filled? • Step 5: What should be done if adverse effects are found? • Step 6: Who is responsible for the various monitoring activities, when should these be carried out, and what is the appropriate format for presenting the monitoring results?

Monitoring will also be integral to compiling baseline information for future plans and programmes, and to preparing information which will be needed for specific project EIAs that will need to be undertaken prior to any development work on the Project.

Monitoring and evaluation of progress towards objectives and targets can form a crucial part of the feedback mechanism. Feedback from the monitoring process helps to provide more relevant information that can be used to pinpoint specific performance issues and significant effects, and ultimately leads to more informed decision-making.

The SEA Consultant has tentatively provided an indication of a Monitoring Plan/Programme (Table 10-42) to be considered by the stakeholders. The Monitoring Plan is subdivided into socio-economic and environmental issues and further broken down into activities to be performed during the pre-construction, construction and operational periods of the project development. The Consultant has also provided on the Monitoring Plan broad indications of responsibilities and a schedule for timing, more consultation between the different stakeholders will be required prior to implementation. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 144

Table 10-42: Draft Monitoring Plan-and Programme

Topic/Indicator Monitoring Activity Responsibility Implementation Pre-Construction Phase SOCIAL / ECONOMIC • Ministry in charge of Industry/ • Quarterly to provide back- • Gravel extraction activities in project area mining/extractive Infrastructure ground activities • Ministry in charge of Industry/ • Quarterly to provide back- • Quarrying activities in project area mining/extractive Infrastructure ground activities Industry/ • Ministry in charge of • Current forestry activities – illegal logging in project area • One Estimate only Infrastructure forestry • Responsible Ministry • Quarterly to provide back- Employment • Ascertain current levels and structure of employment in Project area in charge ground • Quarterly to provide back- • Current tourism in project area – touristic offer, number of tourists • Responsible Ministry Tourism ground and to supplement • Fishing and Hunting permits issued in project area in charge “Monstat” ENVIRONMENTAL Biodiversity – Flora • Baseline Survey in the Morača Valley and on Skadar Lake for habitats (according to • To obtain accurate baseline pri- • Investor - Fauna Habitats Directive classification, birds, fish, bats, dragonflies or to Construction • Full survey of potentially unstable ground areas - landslide/landslip threats in areas • To obtain accurate baseline pri- Soil/Geology planned for inundation • Investor or to Construction • Survey of karstic terrain in areas planned for inundation from HPPs • Investor with guidance • To obtain accurate baseline pri- Seismic • Establishment of network of seismic stations for continuous monitoring from stakeholders or to Construction • Establish site specific monitoring stations (rivers and springs/wells, groundwater and • Investor with guidance • Water Quality Lake Skadar) Monthly - To obtain accurate from stakeholders baseline prior to Construction • Ascertain water quality at specific sites (full range of parameters incl. heavy metals) • Establish site specific monitoring stations – gauging stations – to fill in record gaps • Establish site specific monitoring stations – piezo-meters – to fill in record gaps • Investor with guid- • Monthly - To obtain accurate • Ascertain water level fluctuations of Lake Skadar Hydrology ance from stakehold- baseline prior to Construction • Ascertain seasonal variations of river flow in project area ers • Ascertain seasonal variations of groundwater level in project area • Ascertain river abstraction data(for irrigation etc) for project area Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 145

Topic/Indicator Monitoring Activity Responsibility Implementation • • One off activity prior to Con- • Establish meteorological station in project area Investor with guid- Climate/Air Quality ance from stakehold- struction • Measure full suite of climatic parameters (including humidity) ers • Daily - as required by standards • Prepare detailed inventory of affected property (land and buildings) due to the devel- • Investor with guid- • One off activity prior to Con- Materials Assets opment ance from stakehold- struction • Prepared detailed cost estimate of compensation claims ers • Implement survey of caves and rock shelters in areas planned for inundation • Conduct detailed foundation survey for Morača Monastery and the surrounding terrace. • Investor with guid- • Undertake detailed analysis of Morača Monastery frescos to ascertain the baseline • One off activities prior to the Cultural Heritage/ ance from stakehold- state prior to construction Archaeology ers (Archaeological commencement of Construc- • Commission appropriate preventative maintenance survey for Morača Monastery Institute paid by the tion • Undertake survey in the vicinity of Duga Monastery investor) • Conduct survey around Danilov Bridge and Kaludjerski Bridge (inundated by An- drijevo) Construction Phase SOCIAL / ECONOMIC • Investor/Contractor • Daily - through regular con- Health (noise) • Measure noise levels (at the nearest buildings) with guidance from struction supervision stakeholders •Investor/Contractor • Daily - through regular con- Health (dust) • Measure air pollution odour, dust fume emissions (at the nearest buildings) with guidance from struction supervision stakeholders • Implementation of Contractor’s Site Safety program • Daily - through regular con- Health (safety) •Investor/Contractor • Program to conform to professional standards struction supervision • Contractor to maintain monthly Employment • Monitor levels of employment for the Project •Investor Contractor records •Investor /Contractor Industry/ • Contractor to maintain monthly • Maintain records of quarrying activity (tonnage) due to construction with guidance from Infrastructure records stakeholders • Investor / Contractor Industry/ • Contractor to maintain monthly • Maintain record of forest clearance due to construction with aid of the Infrastructure records Forestry Service Tourism • Maintain records of tourism to DSP area – touristic offer, number of tourists if in- • Responsible Ministry • Quarterly Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 146

Topic/Indicator Monitoring Activity Responsibility Implementation crease or decrease due to construction work. in charge ENVIRONMENTAL • Regular check on biota from the project area at particularly stressed sites - habitats • Investor / Contractor Biodiversity – Flora (according to Habitats Directive classification, birds, fish, bats, dragonflies • Continuous - through regular with guidance from - Fauna • Check on vegetation cover construction supervision stakeholders • Check on quality of water, turbidity • Investor /Contractor • Regular monitoring of erosion control (especially landslide threat at site of Djurdjev- • Monthly, but weekly –when Soil/Geology with guidance from ine (near Morača Monastery)) rains and thaw stakeholders • • Regular seismic monitoring within the project area Investor/Contractor Seismic with guidance from • Daily • Establish monitoring network of accelerators in dams stakeholders • Regular measurement of water quality - site specific monitoring stations (rivers and springs/wells, groundwater and Lake Skadar) • Investor /Contractor • Monthly Water Quality • Check on surface water and groundwater contamination with guidance from • Continuous through regular • Ascertain that on site sanitary and wastewater facilities are constructed to correct and stakeholders construction supervision hygienic standards. • Measurement of river flow at site specific monitoring stations – gauging stations • Investor/Contractor • Monthly Hydrology • Measurement of groundwater level at site specific monitoring stations – piezo-meters with guidance from • Continuous through regular • Measurement of water level of Lake Skadar stakeholders construction supervision • Investor/ Contractor Climate • Measurement of meteorological data in project area • Daily - as required by standards with HMI guidance • Ministry in charge of the investment/ con- Materials Assets • Check that land and materials compensation claims have been dealt with correctly • As required cession and the In- vestor • Regular measurement of temperature, relative humidity in and around Morača Monas- Cultural Heritage/ tery as well as other microclimate parameters • Investor with guidance • Daily – through regular con- Archaeology • Regular monitoring and control of the foundation stability of Morača Monastery and from stakeholders struction supervision the surrounding terrace. Completion / Operation Phase SOCIAL / ECONOMIC • Implementation of Site Safety program Health (safety) • Investor • Monthly • Program to conform to professional standards Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 147

Topic/Indicator Monitoring Activity Responsibility Implementation • Ministry in charge of Industry/ • Quarterly to compare with pre- • Gravel extraction activities in project area mining/extractive Infrastructure vious records activities • Ministry in charge of Industry/ • Quarterly to compare with pre- • Quarrying activities in project area mining/extractive Infrastructure vious records activities • Monitor levels and structure of employment to assess impact on levels pre-construc- • Quarterly to compare with pre- Employment • Responsible Ministry tion vious records • Quarterly to compare with pre- Tourism • Maintain records of tourism in DSP area – touristic offer, number of tourists • Responsible Ministry vious records ENVIRONMENT • Regular surveys on selected sections/areas of Morača Valley and on Skadar Lake to Biodiversity – Flora • Investor with guidance assess levels of biodiversity - for habitats (according to Habitats Directive classifica- • Quarterly - Fauna from stakeholders tion, birds, fish, bats, dragonflies • Regular monitoring of landslide threat at site of Djurdjevine (near Morača Monastery) • Investor with guidance • Monthly, but weekly –when Soil/Geology • Regular measurement of sedimentation depths within reservoirs upstream of dams from stakeholders rains and thaw • Regular seismic monitoring within the project area • Investor with guidance Seismic • Daily • Regular monitoring of network of accelerators in dams from stakeholders • Regular measurement of water quality - site specific monitoring stations (rivers and springs/wells, groundwater, lake Skadar and reservoirs) • Investor with guidance Water Quality • Monthly • Ascertain that on site sanitary and wastewater facilities from operational facilities are from stakeholders to correct and hygienic standards. • Measurement of river flow at site specific monitoring stations – gauging stations • Investor with guidance Hydrology • Measurement of groundwater level at site specific monitoring stations – piezo-meters • Monthly from stakeholders • Measurement of water level of Lake Skadar • Investor with guidance Climate • Measurement of meteorological data in project area • Daily - as required by standards from stakeholders • Regular measurement of temperature, relative humidity in and around Morača Monas- • Investor (Archaeolo- Cultural Heritage/ tery as well as other microclimate parameters gical Institute paid by • Monthly Archaeology • Regular monitoring and control of the foundation stability of Morača Monastery and the investor) the surrounding terrace Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 148

The monitoring plan in Table 10-42 can provide some answers to the above mentioned questions in Step 1, Step 2, Step 3, Step 4 and Step 6. Within Step 4, gaps in information, the SEA has helped to indicate some apparent gaps in monitoring that should be established during the pre-construction phase so that more accurate baseline data can be obtained. This is particularly the case for data regarding biodiversity (flora and fauna), seismic monitoring, slope stability, hydrology, air quality, water quality and archaeology.

Regarding Step 5 however, this can only be acted upon once an adverse effect is found, but there should be agreement between the stakeholders on a predefined response plan, course of action and timeframe for such events.

10.2 Organisation of Monitoring The implementation of HPPs on the Morača River is a considerable project for Montenegro and will need to be monitored responsibly.

Current responsibility for monitoring of indicators is split between many different stakeholders and also at national and municipal level. An Environmental Protection Agency has also been recently established in Montenegro and it is assumed that this stakeholder will also play a prominent role in the set up of the monitoring plan.

There will be a need to get answers to the following questions:

• Will there be a Project Monitoring Unit (PMU) or Project Implementation Unit (PIU) established prior to commencement of the Project? • Do the current Municipalities have a budget for monitoring activities? • Who is responsible for monitoring social indicators? • Will the Investor be responsible for funding the monitoring? • Should the Contractor include the costs for monitoring in tenders? • Will the monitoring be outsourced to a private company?

Prior to the release of tenders for the HPP’s there will be a need for a series of workshops to discuss these issues so that Montenegro is prepared for project implementation. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 149

11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The SEA Law Article 15 clause 11 requires that conclusions reached during the elaboration of the SEA should be presented. This chapter is split between conclusions and recommendations. Each sub section is further subdivided into general issues and those of an environmental or socio-economic nature.

11.1 Conclusions

11.1.1 General

• The SEA has focused on the DSP for multipurpose accumulations at Zlatica, Milunovici, Raslovici and Andrijevo in response to the TOR. However the DSP Project Area now also includes 11 other reservoirs and dams in the upper catchments of Morača which are at a very provisional stage. A decision on their construction has yet to be made. Nevertheless, they would all be subjected to separate feasibility and SEA before they could be realistically considered. • The extent of the SEA has covered the ten DDZs for the four HPPs, the wider DSP project area of the Up- per Morača catchment, and also the relevant areas downstream of the DSP including Skadar Lake and the outflow of the Bojana River to the Adriatic Sea. The DSP outcome is part of the planned Energy Develop- ment Strategy for Montenegro. Despite the word “multipurpose” appearing in the title of the DSP, a review has revealed no real details on the multipurpose approach being given. A more accurate definition of “multipurpose” needs to be made. Is it a function of tourism, recreation, fishing, development of agriculture? No specific details for resettlement areas are provided; only extended areas of the existing settlements. • The DSP contains no information on how the 4 main dams will be operated. It is important to know if “daily peaking” comprising high flows during days to cater for demand of energy and lower flows at night will be practiced. Generally the power plants are planned to operate as 75% peaking plants and 25% as base load providers. Furthermore, the function of ancillary facilities associated with the 4 HPPs (i.e. workers camp accommodation, workshop, quarry, etc.) are not clearly distinguished in the DDZ maps. Existing power lines are shown, but not the links to the 4 HPPs and it is unclear whether the existing power lines will provide network strong enough for safe and efficient distribution of the newly produced energy into the grid. • The SEA has shown that there will be transboundary issues as a result of the downstream affects on Lake Skadar. Montenegro will therefore inform Albania accordingly in line with the requirements of SEA Law and international conventions.

11.1.2 Environmental The following are the conclusions from the environmental review:

Biodiversity • There is a high biodiversity within the Morača river valley and its tributaries (especially Mrtvica and Mala Rijeka) as well as on Skadar Lake. The DSP if implemented will have significant affect on endemic species. Because of international importance of Skadar Lake consultation on threats and acceptable levels of biodiversity loss have to be conducted according to international agreements and conventions. Extensive inventories need to be undertaken in the preparatory phase so that adequate mitigation measures can be included in the final design. • Change in lake levels may impact upon the life cycle of fish and migratory bird nesting sites. • It is very important to include provision for fish ladders within the lower dams of the Morača River to allow fish migration and make best efforts for research and implementation of potential solutions for the Andrijevo dam. • Certain fluctuation in inflow of water into Skadar Lake has to be ascertained in order to keep the wetland habitats and their ecological functions. In this regard, the respective authorities of Montenegro and Al- Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 150

bania need to agree an overall water management strategy for their HPPs to ensure a minimum flow to the downstream rivers and to Skadar Lake.

Water Quality • The water quality in the dam areas is assumed to be relatively good, and there are no foreseen problems on water quality by constructing the dams. Vegetation should be removed prior to filling the dams in order to avoid high organic matter in the reservoirs. • For the larger catchment, reduced flow during the winter season may result in reduced transport of sediments and substances transported associated with particles, such as phosphorus and heavy metals. This, again, may result in increased sedimentation of particles, phosphorus and metals along the river bed in winter. However, apart from in the reservoirs, the remaining flow in the river is assumed to be strong enough to be able to transport most of the particles downstream. Increased flow in summer will probably improve the water quality of the river during summer, due to dilution. The present high concentrations of faecal bacteria could therefore be reduced. It is assumed that inhabitants and stakeholders along the river could benefit from these changes as any smells from the river will be reduced. The planned increase/improvement of sewage treatment plants will further improve this situation. • For the area downstream to Skadar Lake, the reduced flow in the spring and sedimentation of particles in the reservoirs may result in less turbidity of the lake waters. This again may lead to better conditions for algae (more light) during the start of the growing season in spring. This can increase the risk of (toxic) blue green algae blooms, since the algae will have a longer blooming season. However, it is also possible that the finest particles will not settle in the reservoirs but continue over the dams and downstream the river courses. Increased flow in summer will also increase the flow in the lake in this warm season. This is assumed to be positive since more rapid water exchange in this season will reduce the risk for harmful algae growth.

Hydrology • The Morača River will be converted into one large reservoir and three smaller ones and hence the hydrological continuum will be broken. The three downstream reservoirs will be operated as run-of-river schemes and the main area of interest is therefore the Andrijevo Reservoir. • The combined volume of all four reservoirs is about million 340 m3 which is less than half of the volume of water passing by the hydrological station in Pernica. It will be important to maintain a minimum flow in the river during the filling of the dams and also during operation. • The water levels in the Andrijevo Reservoir may fluctuate with amplitude of about 75 meters, if so; the littoral zone of this reservoir will be strongly affected. Erosion and lack of life along the shores may be a result; the latter will again imply that very few fish species can live in this reservoir. Water release from the reservoirs needs to be undertaken carefully and sympathetically to reduce negative effects downstream. • For the wider Morača catchment there will be changes in flow per season in the river between Zlatica and the outlet in Skadar Lake. The extent of this change will depend on how the dams are operated, but it must not be forgotten that the reservoirs are rather small as compared with the flow at Pernica, and it is therefore not possible to hold back more water than what the reservoirs can contain. Furthermore, the annual variations in riverine water discharges are rather large, with high water discharges during winter and low in summer. An increase in the summer flow will also be positive as it will dilute pollution in the river and the reduced flow in winter may help decrease the highest floods and therefore reduce risk of damage from floods. For the biota, however, such changes or fluctuations may be harmful (see the section on Biod- iversity). • For the area downstream, water levels in Skadar Lake correspond poorly to water discharges in Morača. This is partly due to a delay in the system, since water level in the lake increases some time after the high flows in the Morača. However, the correlations are better with the outlet river, Bojana at Fraskanjel, which implies that the water level in Skadar is closely linked to the water level of the outflow river. Indirectly, this also suggests that the lake level depends on the water flow variations of the Drim River system. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 151

• The Upper Morača (where the hydropower plants are planned) only contributes about 21 % of the total flow into Skadar Lake. The reservoirs’ capacity for storing water is not large as compared to the water flow, and most years it is assumed that the changes in water level of the lake will be relatively small as a consequence of the hydropower scheme. This issue should, however, be more thoroughly investigated when better datasets on hydrology can be produced during the EIA.

Geological Conditions and Seismic • The Morača dams lie within Seismic Zone VIII and risk of higher earthquake magnitude rises in a southerly direction downstream. Dams are well designed to withstand such occurrences and the construction of such should be undertaken with a full seismic assessment including provision of seismic monitoring equipment for monitoring. • The zone of potential landslide near Djurdjevine in the Andrijevo zone of inundation remains a potential issue. This 2.5km2 area of flysch just downstream on Morača Monastery has been subject of limited geotechnical investigations in the past (electrical resistivity profiling). A tender procedure by ME and IFC for a geotechnical investigation is underway, with the intention to finish the investigation before completing the evaluation of bids for construction of the Morača HPPs. In this cannot be achieved then investigation works will be performed by the Investor/Concessionaire. • There is also concern on the rock foundations for Morača Monastery which shows varying characteristics of cementation within the conglomerate layers. A project assessing these stability problems at the monastery is planned to be undertaken during the construction phase of the Morača HPPs. • Water tightness within the storage basins around the 4HPPs and in particular Zlatica and Milunovici dams should also be addressed to further assess the permeability of the conglomerates and the limestone.

Climate Change • Although not conclusive, climate change analysis indicates that temperatures may have risen slightly (by less than 0.5 degrees centigrade) in the last 10-15 years, however changes in rainfall (either a reduction or increase) are not conclusive. • On a continental level, World Bank supported studies have indicated that Europe could suffer a rise from the year 2000 temperatures of between 2-5° C in the next 100 years, which is a concern and could give rise to more extreme events such as droughts or floods.

Material Assets • Very little information on the loss of material assets is provided in the DSP and no information on loss of land or property is provided for the 11 dams in the upper catchment. • The DSP does not specify which reservoirs are to be used for drinking water supply in the light of a multipurpose function although it is assumed that Zlatica would be the principal source. • The DSP does not provide much detail of the number of water supplies that will be affected. In Zlatica a pumping station with two boreholes will be affected, but no mention is made how this supply will be replaced. • No proof of economic sustainability has been provided for the 11 dams sites in the upper Morača catchment and a decision on their construction has yet to be made. • Air Quality in the DSP area remains good, and traffic emissions are the main problem. Traffic through the Morača Valley will be substantially affected by the new Bar Boljare road. • It is important to maintain minimum flow in the river and the dynamics of nutrients to ensure ecological functions of Morača and Skadar Lake.

Cultural Heritage and Cultural Monuments • Cultural Heritage is an important issue in the Project area and there are indications of pre-historic sites within the Morača Valley that should be investigated prior to inundation. Ideally these surveys should be undertaken prior to detailed design to ensure that appropriate mitigation measures are incorporated into the final design. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 152

• Besides a mention of 150 graves that have been identified as being affected in Andrijevo, nothing is provided in the DSP on the proposed transfer of these grave sites before inundation; how will this be undertaken, who will be responsible? It is important to ensure that the transfer of graves needs to be done with provision of new settlement areas in mind. It is important to prevent graves being transferred to one location when the relatives and family members are relocated elsewhere. • Two footbridges more than 150 years old will be lost due to the Andrijevo inundation as well as a church and two primary schools. No mention is made in the DSP about how this will be undertaken? Will the bridges be recorded by a survey for posterity or will they be taken down and rebuilt as cultural monuments on higher ground? How will the affected primary schools be replaced? Where will they be located? Will footbridges be provided across the reservoir to allow easy access for school children? How will the church be replaced? These are all questions that require answers. • Frescos at the Morača Monastery in recent times have suffered considerable degradation due to increased humidity. This is due to lack of maintenance or inappropriate maintenance by leaking roof surfaces. A more detailed analysis of the situation is necessary and this will be undertaken during the construction of the Morača HPPs.

Landscape • The Landscape Unit of Canyon valleys in Morača watershed as defined in the National Spatial Plan will be affected by the inundation as a result of the construction of the 4 dams. The resulting reservoirs (especially Andrijevo and Zlatica) will have the greatest visual effect. The proposed Emerald sites of Mrtvica Canyon and Mala Rijeka will be slightly affected. The historic landscape of the valley around Morača Monastery (although mentioned, this is not scheduled) will be substantially affected by the inundation of the Andrijevo reservoir. • A landscape and visual impact assessment has been carried out by the SEA Consultant in line with the requirements of the TOR. With the exception of Andrijevo, visual impacts of the dams are not considered to be too substantial. The resulting reservoirs (especially Andrijevo) could improve the landscape and amenity value of the area.

11.1.3 Socio Economic Settlements, Population and Health • Demographic structure of the DSP Project Area indicates a generally ageing population within the vicinity of the DDZs. • Life expectancy within the project area is similar to other parts of Montenegro. • Death rates are higher in Kolasin municipality than Podgorica municipality and outstrip birth rates, indicating a declining population. Podgorica (due to its nature as a capital and source of employment) has a higher birth rate to death rate. • Health of the population is synonymous with the demographics; ailments noted indicate a generally ageing population. • Some people will have to move out of the areas that are to be inundated. Given the age structure of those living in the area, a large proportion will be old and hence specific measures and extra care for their mental well being must be considered.

Employment and Education • Employment in the DSP Project area is predominantly associated with agriculture and forestry. • GDP in the Morača valley is under Euro 1,000 per capita which is low compared with other parts of Montenegro. • Unemployment rates in the project area are relatively high which can be expected for rural areas of Montenegro. • The construction of the four dams will undoubtedly provide substantial job opportunities; however in addition, there are optimistic signs from the DSP that the dams will lead to spin off employment opportunities due to more water availability for irrigated agriculture, a possibility of a bottling plant and also increased activity within the tourism sector. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 153

• Regarding the tourism sector, the Project Area has shown some natural growth in recent years, but indications of numbers employed to implement the outcome of the DSP are extremely ambitious! The DSP states that 4,000 people will be connected with tourism as a result of the multipurpose accumulations. It is important to note that in 2008 within the whole of Montenegro the number of jobs associated with tourism (hotel and catering) was 14.641, which included the majority associated with the coastal areas (2008 estimate from Monstat). The SEA Consultant therefore cannot see how the DSP statement for such a large number of jobs associated with tourism can be realised. • Crime rates do not appear to be any different to other parts of Montenegro • Livelihood of fishermen in Lake Skadar could be affected by changes in the lake levels and this needs more assessment (preferable a cost benefit analysis). At the moment it is difficult to estimate on one hand to what extent the fish populations will be affected and on the other hand how many people will be economically affected. Data on number of people that rely on fishing as the sole source of income or an additional source of food and income are inconsistent. • There is no reason to believe that the local inhabitant’s education level or their opportunities in seeking education will be affected by the HPPs. In fact there is likely to be an improvement in education standards as more professional people may move into the area and schools would be more accessible to the relocated population. It is important to pay attention to improvement of schools to accommodate for more children (from the 2 inundated schools).

Industry (recreation, tourism etc) • Institutional capacity within existing stakeholder organisations will need to be strengthened as a result of the DSP. • There is a potential conflict of use for Zlatica reservoir. Can the reservoir be used for water supply as well as a recreational centre? Motor boats, Jet skis etc, have a danger of oil spillages which could create problems for drinking water use. • Oscillations in the water level of Andrijevo dam will make it difficult to implement tourism /recreational activities.

11.2 Recommendations The following recommendations are provided as a preliminary draft and will need revision following the outcome of the public consultations.

11.2.1 General • It is recommended that the preliminary mitigation and monitoring programs put forward in this SEA report are used as a template for more detailed documentation that will be required when the EIAs are prepared for the hydropower projects. Such EIAs should ideally be undertaken in parallel with the final design so that appropriate mitigation/monitoring measures can be included to improve the technical solutions. • The finalised mitigation and monitoring programs can then be used by the Operator to provide a firmer indication of budgetary needs. • Montenegro should consider a transboundary conference on Morača/Drim basin prior to construction of the dams to discuss water management and regulatory issues from HPPs and their potential downstream effects on Lake Skadar especially during times of low flow, as well as joint management of the Skadar Lake. • Spatial plans for Kolasin and Podgorica are quite old and it is recommended that they should be updated prior to construction in light of the DSP.

11.2.2 Environmental The following are a list of environmental recommendations: • The inundation of substantial areas of the Morača valley could imply a permanent loss of flora and fauna and potential sites of cultural heritage or archaeological interest. It is therefore recommended that the following are undertaken: Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 154

o “In accordance with the relevant edict of Montenegrin law, a survey on flora and fauna should be undertaken as early as possible during the detailed design. The terms of reference for such a survey must clearly state what will be covered, where the survey should be, how quality control will be ensured and how the results of the findings and possible mitigation measures can be integrated into the final design. This will imply a high monitoring presence from the appropriate stakeholders. However, ideally according to Consultant’s best practise a detailed survey on flora and fauna on the areas of inundation should have been undertaken prior to tendering so that any important discoveries could have been catered for in the tender process. In the latter case the Montenegrin Gov- ernment would have to secure funding from international institutions.” o “Detailed Archaeological Survey in the areas of inundation during the detailed design so that any necessary mitigation measures can be included in the final design.” • The fish fauna is quite extensively researched, but the dynamics of fish populations could be researched more, not only to understand and better estimate the size of the impacts, but also to be able to better estimate the impact on fisheries and incomes of fishermen. Research on fish must be conducted also in the area above the Andrijevo reservoir prior to construction to provide data for assessment of potential impacts upstream due to changes in migration patterns of fish species and population dynamics. • Research on site-specific design for fish ladders and technologies to exclude fish from turbines should be done prior to final design. For Andrijevo dam, the latest developments in methods and techniques for fish migration through large dams should be followed closely during the entire project planning phase and if any of them is feasible they should be integrated into the design. • Capacity building activities should be organised for planners and developers together with biodiversity specialists prior to construction in order to get better understanding of the impact of design details and construction activities on the flora and fauna and integrate environmental design in the planning and construction documents and activities. This can be also combined with activities for local communities for their better understanding of the HPPs. • Establishment of a seismic monitoring system prior to inundation under the Project as well as a network of accelerator instruments during construction and thereafter during operation for monitoring of dynamic reactions of dams in the event of an earthquake. • Measures to resolve the impact of increased humidity on frescos of the Morača Monastery should be implemented during construction activities. A more detailed analysis is desirable to allow comparison of the impact with the 4 HPPs and if they are not built (Do nothing option). • Continuous monitoring of the relative humidity and temperature both in the Monastery and in the immediate vicinity should be undertaken as well as analysis of microclimate prior to inundation. • Detailed modelling of hydrological issues in the Morača catchment including tributaries, the Skadar Lake, Bojana and Drim Rivers needs to be undertaken in time to feed into the EIA which should be undertaken in parallel with the final design. Efforts should be made to access all necessary data including any information from the recent World Bank GEF initiative. • The present network of hydrological stations is either poor or data are not made available from all existing stations. A relatively dense network of stations is necessary in order to understand the hydrology of this karstic area where the dynamics of groundwater sinks and sources are only poorly understood. • It is recommended to improve the availability of existing hydrological data prior to construction. Hydrolo- gical data are important for a better understanding of all intended changes to the river system. Daily data should be made available from all existing and past stations. Consideration should also be made to think- ing about installation of a dynamic online monitoring system prior to construction so that more accurate baseline conditions can be obtained. • Improved data exchange between countries should also be prioritised. The SEA has so far not found any useful data (just one year of records) from stations in the Drim River just upstream of the confluence with Bojana. Long term data from the Drim River downstream of the last hydropower dam but upstream the confluence with Bojana would be helpful in order to better understand the dynamics of the water level changes in Skadar Lake. • Monitoring of minimum flow on the Morača River must be carried out as a priority. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 155

• A proper sediment and pollution budget should be set up for the Morača River, in order to improve the understanding of where the sediments and pollutants derive from; • Monitoring stations for water quality should be upgraded and samples collected before, during and after the building of the dams; • Implementation of more sewage treatment plants should be given priority on the Morača and Zeta Rivers, as the current high nutrient levels in the river are assumed to derive from sewage. Improved monitoring of suspended sediment transported in the rivers including grain size distribution analyses of suspended sediments should be undertaken prior to completion of the EIA and in parallel with the final design – this is also important for the technical requirements of the plants; • Impact of water quality to biota should be analysed prior to construction of the dams.

11.2.3 Socio Economic The following are a list of socio-economic recommendations • It is recommended that consideration for further analysis on the impact of fishing on Skadar Lake should be undertaken. If found relevant, this needs to be linked to the WB /GEF project mentioned under environment. • Health services need to be strengthened/ improved prior to construction in the area in the light of the increase of people working on the construction of the HPPs but also on the DSP related activities (tourism, recreations etc). In addition such improvement should be undertaken in the light of resettlement. This can be linked in part to compensation as most affected people will be elderly and they need assistance in cop- ing with stress involved. • It is extremely important to ensure that resettlement is undertaken in a responsible manner and according to legislation prior to construction activities. A nominated contact point in Government needs to be provided to enable consultations from the public on these issues. • Compensation for loss of housing and land needs to be provided in kind at an early stage. This is important to preserve existing demographics. The “planned” state of the DSP indicates a further 1.5km2 of space allocated for settlements but more details need to be provided. • Compensation for loss of economic potential (lower accessibility of agricultural land and forests, loss of income for fishing etc.), training opportunities and support for alternative sources of income have to be provided for the local inhabitants prior to construction. • An Institutional Capacity Building (ICB) survey and Training Needs Assessment (TNA) needs to be implemented within the stakeholders institutions (municipalities, sector ministries etc) prior to the construction as a result of the DSP to handle issues such as resettlement, compensation, people’s needs, etc. • Households that remain, but lose their land due to inundation will also need to be compensated/ resettled prior to construction. For example a farm losing land or having poor access to the property on the other side of the lake may no longer be economically viable. • Sand and gravel extraction industries that are affected by the inundations will need to be compensated in kind as long as they are legal entities? Furthermore, ministries should use the DSP as an opportunity to regulate sand and gravel extraction on the Morača River after the construction. • It is recommended that experience gained from dealing with inundated areas from dam projects in former Yugoslavia (i.e. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia) should be used in a systematic manner to prevent adverse socio-economic affects. Further, innovative ways for after use of such reservoirs need to be adopted. Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment for Detailed Spatial Plan for HPPs on the Morača River 156

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13 ANNEXES

Annex 1 – Terms of Reference

Annex 2 – Overview of Potential Effects on Biodiversity

Annex 3 – Water Classification System in Montenegro

Annex 4 – Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment

Annex 5 – Further Details of Environmental Protection Legislation

Annex 6 – SEA Evaluation, Approach and Methodology