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Home , Mohammed Dahlan, Palestinian territories

No. 24 MARCH 2021 Introduction

Palestinian Elections, Finally Significance, Challenges and European Responsibilities Muriel Asseburg

2021 is shaping up to be a year of elections for the , both in the and across the world. Three ballots are scheduled for the institutions of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). It is still unclear whether they will all take place as planned. The PA elections certainly have an important role to play in integrating the younger generations in the Terri- tories, restoring political accountability and reinstating democratic checks and bal- ances. The elections to the Palestinian National Council – the PLO’s parliament in exile – would be even more significant and a crucial step towards creating a repre- sentative organ and establishing the basis for an inclusive discussion about the lib- eration movement’s future strategy and the role of the PA. The EU and its member states have been calling for years for the Palestinian leadership to revive the demo- cratic process and overcome the / split. They should therefore not only support the elections with observers but also contribute actively to their being as free, fair and competitive as possible under the difficult circumstances.

In mid-January 2021 Palestinian President tionality under President . issued decrees for three The decision was made possible by a rap- elections to be held in the course of the prochement between the Palestinian year: to the Palestinian Legislative Council parties: first and foremost Fatah, which (PLC), the PA’s parliament, on 22 May; governs the , and Hamas, which for the PA presidency on 31 July; and to governs in Gaza. The decisive motivation the Palestinian National Council (PNC), the was their shared rejection of Trump’s so- PLO’s parliament in exile, on 31 August. called deal of the century and the Israeli The decision to hold elections fulfils the government’s announcement in early sum- longstanding demand of the international mer 2020 of a formal annexation of parts community – especially Germany and its of the West Bank. In view of the existential EU partners – to revive the democratic threat to the Palestinian national project, process in the Palestinian Territories. At the Palestinians agreed in autumn 2020 to the same time, Abbas hopes to prepare the hold elections at all levels before resuming ground to mend the relationship with the talks towards reconciliation between the after four years of dysfunc- rival leaderships. The sequence acknowl-

edged that one of the effects of the failure and are already exerting pressure on of all efforts to overcome the split had been the PA to delay the elections. to prevent the holding of elections.

Potential Significance Elections Still Uncertain Elections in the Palestinian Territories The Palestinian parties committed in early would of course occur under conditions February 2021 to accept the election results, of occupation and achieve no more than and agreed to secure the polling stations renewing the institutions of the Palestinian with official, uniformed security forces, Authority, whose powers under the Oslo and to establish a special election court Agreements between and the PLO (with judges from the West Bank, Gaza are very limited indeed. The process would and East ). They also agreed to nevertheless be immensely significant. Elec- establish a government of national unity, tions would firstly give the very young popu- ensure freedom of expression and release lation of the Palestinian Territories an op- political detainees on both sides. In mid- portunity to participate in politics. About March they signed a code of honour for two-thirds of the population are under 29 the ballots. years old. Given that the last elections were Preparations are already in full swing. more than fifteen years ago – for the presi- President Abbas has issued decrees regu- dency in January 2005, to the PLC in Janu- lating the process in the Palestinian Terri- ary 2006 – that also means that about half tories, including a purely proportional of today’s electorate (those aged 18 to 33 national list system for the PLC election. years) have never had an opportunity to Voter registration was carried out in mid- vote. February. Registration of party lists is Secondly it would be a first step towards between 20 and 31 March. restoring political accountability and demo- Yet it is by no means certain that all the cratic checks and balances. Abbas has elections will occur as planned. The third ruled by decree since declaring a state of wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is emergency after the political split between currently virulent in the Palestinian Terri- the West Bank and Gaza in June 2007. In tories, is likely to hamper campaigning and December 2018 he finally dissolved the voting. Nor is it clear whether the Palestin- PLC, with the effect of lifting the deputies’ ian population of will be immunity. In the meantime two parallel permitted to participate, and if so how. political systems have emerged in the West Both dominant parties also worry about Bank and Gaza, both of which are governed losing control of the part of the Territories in an increasingly authoritarian fashion. they currently govern. Another fear is that While there may be little prospect of over- a successful ballot could be followed by coming the split and achieving genuine another round of international isolation reconciliation, elections could at least and loss of urgently needed diplomatic and restore a counterweight to the executive, financial support – as occurred in 2006 and the legislative council would likely after Hamas won largely free and fair elec- push for an independent judiciary. tions and formed a government. This gov- Thirdly the elections offer an opportunity ernment was quickly isolated by Israel, the to revive the political debate, foster the EU and the United States and undermined emergence of new political forces and en- by Fatah, in a process that spiralled into gage society. At least in theory it would also armed conflict between Hamas and Fatah, present a chance to initiate an orderly suc- Hamas’s violent seizure of power in Gaza cession to the presidency. Although the and the political split that still drags on population is largely disillusioned about today. The governments of Israel, the PA’s institutions and the political par-

SWP Comment 24 March 2021

2 ties, the enthusiasm for voter registration – establishing a representative organ and with more than 93 percent of those eligible integrating forces like Hamas into the PLO signing up – indicates strong interest in in proportion to their popularity. That political participation. Surveys show three- would also create the basis for an urgently quarters of respondents supporting elections, needed Palestinian debate about the future and a lively debate about the elections is strategy of the liberation movement and under way in the Territories and across the the role of the PA. diaspora. Fourthly the elections to the PLC will determine one-third of the seats on the PNC Caveats (132 of 350), as Legislative Council deputies will automatically represent the Palestinian There are currently strong signs that the Territories in the exile parliament. two dominant forces – Fatah and Hamas – are seeking exclusive power-sharing rather than free, fair and competitive elections. It Elections to the PNC remains unclear whether the two parties will actually – as has been discussed – In view of the grim outlook for the national stand on a joint list and thus negotiate the Palestinian project, the PNC elections would share of seats between them in advance, be especially significant. A process of re- rather than leaving that to the voters. newal would be crucial to make the PLO’s There is also still doubt as to whether they governing body representative and improve will agree on a joint candidate for the presi- its effectiveness. The bloated National dency – as Hamas in particular would Council (with currently 765 members) last wish. Hamas has thus made it clear that it met in /May 2018. Even if it is still does not intend to stand its own candidate nominally the PLO’s supreme decision-mak- for president. ing body, it has remained largely on the In general, conditions have been created sidelines since the PA was established in that narrow the field and deter rather than 1994 and took over functions of the PLO. encourage candidates from standing. The One central reason for its loss of relevance window for registration is so short as to is the concentration of powers enjoyed make it almost impossible to form new by Abbas, as PA president, PLO chairman, alliances or conduct primaries. Also there is Fatah chairman and president of the State no party law that would regulate the estab- of . This excludes from the politi- lishment and registration of new parties cal process 8.5 million Palestinians in Israel beyond mere electoral alliances. Moreover, and the diaspora (compared to about 5.2 the lists have to collect three thousand million in the Palestinian Territories). Fur- signatures and deposit the equivalent of thermore, the balance of forces in the PLO US$20,000 – a huge sum in the Palestinian institutions is defined by factional com- context – to register. Before they register promises negotiated long ago and outdated candidates are also required to resign from quotas for unions and societal groups. any public office they hold (whether as Now the size of the PNC is to be reduced minister or local councillor) and terminate to 350 members and its composition deter- any employment in the public sector or mined wherever possible by elections. Even even with civil society organisations. The if the specific circumstances might not minimum age for standing for the PLC was allow voting to take place in every country set at 28 years, provoking harsh criticism with a Palestinian community, and elec- especially among the Palestinian youth. tions may end up being possible only in the Neither nor Gaza has fully im- Palestinian Territories, Israel, Europe, the plemented the agreed release of political United States and South America – they prisoners. And there is no sign of a political would still mark a decisive step towards opening. Quite the contrary, in early March

SWP Comment 24 March 2021

3 Abbas issued a decree on NGOs placing con- a kind of postal vote in the city’s post siderable constraints on the freedom of civil offices, others in Palestinian West Bank society. communities adjacent to Jerusalem. With To date only Hamas has held internal good will on both sides ways and means elections – to schedule and therefore more could certainly be found to allow East or less coincidentally in advance of the elec- Jerusalem’s Palestinian population to par- tions. In the case of Fatah we currently see ticipate. And then there is the question the opposite of an internal process involv- of enabling residents of East Jerusalem to ing the grassroots: The leadership assigns stand as candidates. That would require a list places, excludes popular candidates clear commitment from the Israeli govern- and, according to media reports, threatens ment not to strip them of their residency those who intend to stand on alternative rights in the city – as occurred after the lists with exclusion from the party or even 2006 PLC elections when four Jerusalem- physical violence. When Nasser al-Qidwa, based Hamas deputies were detained and member of Fatah’s central committee, long- expelled from the city. serving PLO representative to the and former PA foreign minister refused to bow to the pressure he was European Demands, European actually expelled from the party in mid- Responsibility March. There is every sign that Abbas in- tends to stand again for president in July The EU and its member states – as the despite his advanced age of 85 years, his largest donor to the Palestinians – have poor health and his repeated promises that declared that they want to contribute to he would not do so. He certainly wants to building a democratic Palestinian entity. prevent adversaries within his own party For years they have been calling on the from standing. This concerns two individu- Palestinian leadership to return to the als in particular: Marwan Barghuthi, former democratic process and overcome the split. PLC deputy and former secretary-general German Chancellor Angela Merkel is said of Fatah in the West Bank, who has been to have urged President Abbas to hold elec- imprisoned in Israel since 2002 and is cur- tions at their last meeting in August 2019. rently regarded as the most popular Pales- The EU and its member states should tinian politician; and , therefore not only – as already planned – former head of the Preventive Security support the upcoming ballots with (finan- Force in Gaza, who was expelled from Fatah cial) assistance and observers. They should and has been in exile in the United Arab also – if possible united and in coordina- Emirates since 2012. tion with Washington, but if need be in a coalition of the willing – firstly press the Palestinian leadership to refrain from yet Israel’s Role again indefinitely postponing the elections. They should also prevail upon the PA to Orderly elections are also endangered by rapidly create an atmosphere in which free, Israeli measures. Not only have Israeli secu- fair and competitive elections can take rity forces in the West Bank begun detain- place – to the extent that is possible at all ing members of the PFLP (Popular Front for under the occupation. In order to facilitate the Liberation of Palestine) and Hamas and the PNC election in late summer they should pressuring them not to stand in the elec- enable the in Europe tions. Israel also has yet to clarify whether to campaign and vote, for example by pro- and how the Palestinian population of East viding polling stations and logistical sup- Jerusalem will be permitted to participate port. in the elections, as explicitly laid out in the Secondly they should push Israel to allow Oslo Agreements. In the past some voted in the Palestinian population of East Jerusa-

SWP Comment 24 March 2021

4 lem to vote – and to stand for election – tions (for example in relation to Israel, gov- without restrictions, to grant the freedom ernance and human rights) into Hamas’s of movement within and between the policy debates and positions. Palestinian Territories required for cam- paigning and voting, and to desist from intervening in the electoral process. Thirdly they should now send a clear message about the conditions under which they would cooperate with the government of national unity sought by the dominant parties, rather than waiting to see what © Stiftung Wissenschaft outcome the election brings. There is a und Politik, 2021 need to allay fears that a Western policy All rights reserved of isolation would yet again more or less This Comment reflects automatically be imposed on any govern- the author’s views. ment in which Hamas were involved. Hamas has backed the agreement among The online version of the Palestinian parties that forms the basis this publication contains for the elections, whose existence the PA functioning links to other confirmed in a letter to the US State Depart- SWP texts and other relevant sources. ment. It contains a commitment to a two- state settlement based on the 1967 , SWP Comments are subject to international law, (unarmed) popular to internal peer review, fact- resistance, and recognition of the PLO as checking and copy-editing. sole representative of the Palestinians For further information on our quality control pro- worldwide. The and its cedures, please visit the SWP member states should announce that they website: https://www.swp- are willing to cooperate with a unity gov- berlin.org/en/about-swp/ ernment operating on the basis of this plat- quality-management-for- form. That would also serve to strengthen swp-publications/ the pragmatic wing of Hamas, which has SWP come ever closer to accepting the condi- Stiftung Wissenschaft und tions for cooperation laid down in 2006 by Politik the so-called Middle East Quartet (United German Institute for States, Russian Federation, United Nations, International and European Union), i.e. commitment to non- Security Affairs violence, recognition of Israel, and accept- Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 ance of previous agreements and obliga- 10719 Berlin tions, but is only ready to recognise Israel Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 in the context of an agreement and not as Fax +49 30 880 07-100 a precondition. www.swp-berlin.org Even if Hamas is still on the European [email protected]

Union’s list of terrorist organizations, it ISSN (Print) 1861-1761 would be sensible for the EU and its mem- ISSN (Online) 2747-5107 ber states to reconsider their “no contact doi: 10.18449/2021C24 policy” towards Hamas. It would make sense to initiate at least low-level contacts Translation by Meredith Dale in order to explore further steps towards (English version of rapprochment and to feed European posi- SWP-Aktuell 26/2021)

Dr. Muriel Asseburg is Senior Fellow in the Middle East and Africa Research Division.

SWP Comment 24 March 2021

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