18th MODEL UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY TOPIC PREPARATION GUIDE 6B: OVERPOPULATION

Environmental Effects At present, the earth’s ecosystem is struggling to survive the effects of a large and careless population. Currently individuals, communities, states, and businesses consume the earth’s resources and pollute its environment with too little attention for the effects. As the world nears a point in global warming that may have irreversible consequences, overpopulation is cause for concern. Supporting 7.7 billion people is no easy feat, it requires intensive farming practices, consumption of finite resources, increased habitat loss, and more. In light of this, the international community must evaluate its methods and goals to provide for such a population. Projected Growth According to the latest United Nations estimate (2019), there are 7.7. billion people in the world. Nearly 60 % of the population lives in Asia, while China and India are the most populated countries in the world. The population is expected to increase by more than 1 billion in the next 15 years: 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100. Even though there is a degree of uncertainty, these numbers are based on a medium level projection. Africa is now the fastest growing continent. The region is expected to play a central role in size and distribution of future population. Conversely, Europe’s population is shrinking. The population in 48 European countries is expected to decrease between now and 2050. Fertility levels are on the decline and have been for decades. Since the level is now below the required rate for full replacement of the population, several countries are expected to see their population decline 15 % by 2050. Developing countries Developing countries struggle to deal with the population explosion. A country that does not have the capacity to provide for a rapidly growing population loses quality and length of life. Limited drinking water, food, energy, and housing are only some of the resources that developing countries are struggling to supply. They are also at increased risk for the emergence of new health epidemics due to a need for stable and accessible healthcare. A loss of public health stalls economic growth, something that developing countries cannot afford. Fertility The future of population growth largely depends on the path that fertility will take, especially in different countries. A country with a low-fertility rate will eventually have trouble replacing its population size, which it may need to properly function. A country with a high-fertility rate, especially in developing countries, may have a problem with the supply of resources and quality of life due to overpopulation. « Low-fertility: women have about 2.1 children per lifetime « Intermediate-fertility: women have about 2.1-5 children per lifetime « High-fertility: women have 5 or more children per lifetime

Increasing Longevity In recent years, overall life expectancy has significantly grown; studies show that it will continue to grow steadily. Great strides in the length and quality of life have been made in developing countries, and high-fertility countries (like many in Africa) will keep a population young. That is not the case with many low-fertility countries. In these countries, there is a large global population that is 60 or over, and that demographic continues to grow. The problem with a declining fertility rate and expanding 60-plus demographic is the number of retired people versus working force. This population aging is a growing trend. A smaller working force cannot support a much larger—retired— demographic.

International migration Internal and international migration continues to be high. They can be forces for economic and social advancement, replacing labor forces, and bringing new ideas and technologies. International migration is one of the potential fixes to uneven aging demographics. Migrants can fill in the gaps of a younger and smaller working force in need of manpower without continuing a trend of over population.

THE UNITED NATIONS UN Population Division The Division prepares the official UN demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world, and helps states build population capacity and formulate population policies. The Population Division collects and reports information: • international migration and development, • urbanization, • world population prospects and policies, and • marriage and fertility rates.

UN Population Fund (UNFPA) UNFPA started in 1968 as a leader within the UN system to promote population programs based on human rights—advocating for individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families. Gender and human rights are important aspects of population issues that UNFPA sheds light on. UNFPA’s mandate is reproductive health and rights, gender equality, and population and development.

QUESTIONS Is your country a low-fertility, intermediate-fertility, or high-fertility state? Does your state have population control legislation? • Does that legislation allow individuals and couples to freely choose the size of their families? Why? Does your state have the capacity to supply the needs of your population size? Is there a relationship between population and state power?

RESOURCES http://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/population/ https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ https://www.unfpa.org/publications/international-conference-population-and-development- programme-action