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Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems

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Population, Inequality, Consumption, and Bidirectional Coupling of the Earth and Human Systems This is a repository copy of Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/167016/ Version: Published Version Article: Motesharrei, Safa, Rivas, Jorge, Kalnay, Eugenia et al. (17 more authors) (2016) Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. National Science Review. pp. 470-494. ISSN 2053-714X https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081 Reuse This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence. This licence allows you to distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon the work, even commercially, as long as you credit the authors for the original work. 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[email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ National Science Review REVIEW 3: 470–494, 2016 doi: 10.1093/nsr/nww081 Advance access publication 11 December 2016 1University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA; 2Institute for Global Environment and MULTIDISCIPLINARY Society, Rockville, MD 20852, USA; 3Joint Global Change Research Institute, Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, College Park, MD 20740, USA; consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth 4University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO and Human Systems 80307, USA; 5Johns 2020 21 October on guest by https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/3/4/470/2669331 from Downloaded 1,∗,† 2,† 1,† 3 Hopkins University Safa Motesharrei , Jorge Rivas , Eugenia Kalnay , Ghassem R. Asrar , Applied Physics 4 5,6 7 Laboratory, Laurel, MD Antonio J. Busalacchi , Robert F. Cahalan , Mark A. Cane , 20723, USA; 6NASA 1 1 8 1 Goddard Space Flight Rita R. Colwell , Kuishuang Feng , Rachel S. Franklin , Klaus Hubacek , Center, Greenbelt, 1,3 1,9 10 MD 20771, USA; Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm , Takemasa Miyoshi , Matthias Ruth , 7Lamont–Doherty 1 1 11 1 Earth Observatory of Roald Sagdeev , Adel Shirmohammadi , Jagadish Shukla , Jelena Srebric , Columbia University, Victor M. Yakovenko1, and Ning Zeng1 Palisades, NY 10964, USA; 8Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences / Population ABSTRACT Studies and Training Center, Brown Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly University, Providence, dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have RI 02912, USA; 9RIKEN increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions Advanced Institute for and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects Computational on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not Science, Kobe 650-0047, Japan; incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, 10School of Public Earth System Models must be coupled with Human System Models through bidirectional couplings Policy and Urban representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Affairs, and Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not Department of Civil and Environmental coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations Engineering, population projections. This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks inthereal Northeastern Earth–Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and University, Boston, thus requiring different policy interventions from current models. The importance and imminence of MA 02115, USA; and 11Department of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential Atmospheric, Oceanic, roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social and Earth Sciences, scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth–Human George Mason system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future University, Fairfax, generations. VA 22030, USA Keywords: Earth and Human System Models, population, migration, inequality, data assimilation, †Equally contributed to bidirectional couplings and feedbacks, sustainability this work. ∗Corresponding author. E-mail: SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT not coupled with the Earth System but are instead [email protected] driven by exogenous estimates such as United Na- The Human System has become strongly dominant tions (UN) population projections. This makes the within the Earth System in many different ways. Received 7 July 2016; models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Revised 7 October However, in current models that explore the fu- Earth–Human system that may result in unexpected 2016; Accepted 23 ture of humanity and environment, and guide policy, October 2016 outcomes requiring very different policy interven- key Human System variables, such as demograph- tions. The importance of humanity’s sustainabil- ics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are ity challenges calls for collaboration of natural and C The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. This is an Open Access articleder distributedun the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ( ), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. REVIEW Motesharrei et al. 471 social scientists to develop coupled Earth–Human The Third Section, entitled ‘Human System system models for devising effective science-based threatens to overwhelm the Carrying Capacity and policies and measures. ecosystem services of Earth System’, describes ex- amples of changes in the Earth System that may im- HIGHLIGHTS pact the Human System seriously, as well as missing feedbacks from the Earth System onto the Human (1) The Human System has become strongly domi- System. nant within the Earth System in many different ways. The Fourth Section, entitled ‘Bidirectional cou- (a) Consumption, inequality, and population pling of Human System and Earth System Models have increased extremely fast, especially since is needed. Proposed methodology: Dynamic Mod- ∼1950. eling, Input–Output models, Data Assimilation’, ar- (b) The collective impact of these changes threat- gues for the need to bidirectionally couple both sys- 2020 21 October on guest by https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/3/4/470/2669331 from Downloaded ens to overwhelm the viability of natural systems and tems in order to model the future of either system the many critical functions that the Earth System more realistically, and proposes practical methods to provides. implement this coupling. (2) Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have im- portant feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and serious consequences. DOMINANCE OF THE HUMAN SYSTEM (3) However, current models, such as the Integrated WITHIN THE EARTH SYSTEM Assessment Models (IAMs), that explore the future Humans impact the Earth System by extracting re- of humanity and environment, and guide policy, do sources and returning waste and pollution to the sys- not incorporate these critical feedbacks. tem, and simultaneously altering land cover, frag- (a) Key Human System variables, such as demo- menting ecosystems, and reducing biodiversity.1 graphics, inequality, economic growth, and migra- The level of this impact is determined by extrac- tion, are instead driven by exogenous projections, tion and pollution rates, which in turn, are deter- such as the UN population tables. mined by the total consumption rate. Total con- (b) Furthermore, such projections are shown to sumption equals population multiplied by average be unreliable. consumption per capita, both of which are recog- (4) Unless models incorporate such two-way cou- nized as primary drivers of human environmental plings, they are likely to miss important dynamics impact.2 in the real Earth–Human system that may result in unexpected outcomes requiring very different policy 1 Planet Earth has been the habitat of humans for hundreds of thousands interventions. of years. Human life depends on the resources provided by the Earth (5) Therefore, Earth System Models (ESMs) must System: air from the Earth’s atmosphere; water from the atmosphere and rivers, lakes, and aquifers; fruits from trees; meat and other products be bidirectionally coupled with Human System from animals; and over the past 10,000 years, land for agriculture, and Models. metals and other minerals from the Earth’s crust. Until about 200 years (a) Critical challenges to sustainability call ago, we used renewable biomass as the major source of materials and energy, but over the course of the past two centuries, we have instead for a strong collaboration of both earth and become heavily dependent on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) social scientists to develop coupled
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