Footprints to Singularity: a Global Population Model Explains Late 20Th Century Slow
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'Zero Carbon': the Wrong Problem Diagnosis, the Wrong 2050 Metric of Success, for New Zealand and the World
‘Zero Carbon’: The Wrong Problem Diagnosis, The Wrong 2050 Metric of Success, for New Zealand and The World. The government surely must agree?: Climate Change is 'merely' one symptom' of ‘The Real Problem’? ‘The Real Problem’ is that Humanity is living well beyond the bioregenerative capacity of the Planet's Ecosystem. (>70% Beyond!) 1970 was the last time the world was in balance, and ever since then the deficit has been steadily increasing without any sign of abating! (This with all the ‘amazing’ ‘Sustainability’ work going on around the world!) The ‘Issue’ is about ‘real’ 'Sustainable Living' and what ‘that’ really means for ‘The World’, a ‘Nation’, and right down to each, and every individual? I'm sure every New Zealander would agree: 'Sustainable Living', and being a 'Sustainable Nation', means: 'We' as a collective, should all be living within our 'fair share' of less than One Planet's, Ecological Regenerative Biocapacity limits? This surely must be, '‘The Ultimate Goal’' of humanity? It's well accepted that anthropogenic Carbon Emissions are a huge contributor to ‘The Real Problem’, but due to the inter-relationship between the Earth's bioregenerative resources, the solution, and particularly when looking to 2050, requires more than a simple, Carbon Emissions, or a ‘Zero Carbon’ focus. (This particularly for nation’s like NZ with strong and diverse Biocapacity Balance Sheets.) At an ‘enclosed system’, global level, a ‘Zero Carbon’ goal may have real relevance in solving ‘The Real Problem’, however, given the huge demographic, and biodiversity diversity between the nations of the world, setting ‘Zero Carbon’ goals at a nation level has the potential to delay, deceive, and confuse efforts to solve ‘The Real Problem’. -
Population Growth & Resource Capacity
Population Growth & Resource Capacity Part 1 Population Projections Between 1950 and 2005, population growth in the U.S. has been nearly linear, as shown in figure 1. Figure 1 U.S. Population in Billions 0.4 0.3 0.2 Actual Growth 0.1 Linear Approximation - - - H L Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. If you looked at population growth over a longer period of time, you would see that it is not actually linear. However, over the relatively short period of time above, the growth looks nearly linear. A statistical technique called linear regression can create a linear function that approximates the actual population growth over this period very well. It turns out that this function is P = 0.0024444t + 0.15914 where t represents the time variable measured in years since 1950 and P represents the (approximate) population of the U.S. measured in billions of people. (If you take statistics, you’ll probably learn how to obtain this function.) The graph of this linear function is shown in the figure above. (1) Just to make sure that you understand how to work with this function, use it to complete the following table. The actual population values are given. If you are working with the function correctly, the values you obtain should be close to the actual population values! Actual Population t P Year (billions of people) (years) (billions of people) 1960 .186158 1990 .256098 2005 .299846 (2) Use the linear function to determine the approximate year when the population of the U.S. -
THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS of a DECLINING POPULATION by FRANCOIS LAFITTE Itstroduction I5-64) Will Grow Older
THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF A DECLINING POPULATION By FRANCOIS LAFITTE Itstroduction I5-64) will grow older. Between I89I and AWELL-CONCEIVED population I937 its average age rose by 24 years, from policy cannot be elaborated unless 34-3 to 36-9 years. In the coming forty the most careful and objective assess- years Glass's projections suggest a further ment of the consequences of present popula- ageing of between 3j and 6 years. Wil this. tion trends is first attempted. If we wish to affect the productivity of the worker ad- modify the British demographic situation versely ? We do not know, but, since the' we have to know why it needs modifying, whole trend of industrial technique is away and in what direction it should be guided. from types of work involving great physical The consequences of differential fertility strength, I doubt whether any possible and mortality are the main concern of deterioration of productivity due to ageing eugenists, and less attention has been of the working population could not be made devoted to the possible effects of changes in up for by improvements in health and work- age composition and total numbers. The ing conditions. In any case, productivity present article is limited to a discussion of per operative employed in Britain rose by the latter in relation to Britain's economic 7 per cent in I924-30 and by at least 20 per future, and is written in lieu of a review of cent in I930-35, whilst in the U.S.A. physical W. B. Reddaway's The Economics of a output per man-hour in industry rose by 27 Declining Population (I939)*, the first sys- per cent in I929-35. -
Modeling Population Dynamics
Modeling Population Dynamics Gary C. White INTRODUCTION Population modeling is a tool used by wildlife managers. At its simplest, population modeling is a book keeping system to keep track of the four components of population change: births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. In mathematical symbolism, a population model can be expressed as Nt+1 = Nt + Bt - Dt + It - Et . Population size (N) at time t+1 is equal to the population size at time t plus births (B) minus deaths (D) plus immigrants (I) minus emigrants (E). The simplicity of the relationship belies its usefulness. If you were managing a business, you would be interested in knowing how much money was being paid out of the business, relative to how much money was coming in. The net difference represents your “profit”. The same is true for managing a wildlife population. By knowing the net change in the size of the wildlife population from one year to the next, you as a wildlife manager know whether the population is “profitable” (i.e., gaining in size), or headed towards bankruptcy (i.e., becoming smaller). Two examples will demonstrate typical uses of population models in big game management. In November 1995, voters in Colorado passed an amendment to the state’s constitution that outlawed hunting black bears during spring. Wildlife managers were asked if the bear population would increase because of no spring harvest. A population model can be used to answer this question. The second example of the use of a model is to determine which of two management schemes (e.g., no antlerless harvest versus significant antlerless harvest) will result in Modeling Population Dynamics – Draft May 6, 1998 2 the largest buck harvest in a mule deer population. -
Evaluating the Interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals Based on the Causality Analysis of Sustainability Indicators
sustainability Article Evaluating the Interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals Based on the Causality Analysis of Sustainability Indicators Gyula Dörg˝o 1,† , Viktor Sebestyén 2,† and János Abonyi 1,* 1 MTA-PE “Lendület” Complex Systems Monitoring Research Group, Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u. 10, P.O. Box 158, H-8201 Veszprém, Hungary; [email protected] 2 Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Pannonia, Egyetem u. 10, P.O. Box 158, H-8201 Veszprém, Hungary; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] † These authors contributed equally to this work. Received: 20 June 2018; Accepted: 15 October 2018; Published: 18 October 2018 Abstract: Policymaking requires an in-depth understanding of the cause-and-effect relationships between the sustainable development goals. However, due to the complex nature of socio-economic and environmental systems, this is still a challenging task. In the present article, the interconnectedness of the United Nations (UN) sustainability goals is measured using the Granger causality analysis of their indicators. The applicability of the causality analysis is validated through the predictions of the World3 model. The causal relationships are represented as a network of sustainability indicators providing the opportunity for the application of network analysis techniques. Based on the analysis of 801 UN indicator types in 283 geographical regions, approximately 4000 causal relationships were identified and the most important global connections were represented in a causal loop network. The results highlight the drastic deficiency of the analysed datasets, the strong interconnectedness of the sustainability targets and the applicability of the extracted causal loop network. -
Who Fears and Who Welcomes Population Decline?
Demographic Research a free, expedited, online journal of peer-reviewed research and commentary in the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Konrad-Zuse Str. 1, D-18057 Rostock · GERMANY www.demographic-research.org DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VOLUME 25, ARTICLE 13, PAGES 437-464 PUBLISHED 12 AUGUST 2011 http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol25/13/ DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.13 Research Article Who fears and who welcomes population decline? Hendrik P. van Dalen Kène Henkens © 2011 Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens. This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 2.0 Germany, which permits use, reproduction & distribution in any medium for non-commercial purposes, provided the original author(s) and source are given credit. See http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/de/ Table of Contents 1 Introduction 438 2 Population decline: Stylized facts and forecasts 440 3 Population decline and theory 444 3.1 Negative consequences of decline 444 3.2 Positive consequences of decline 447 3.3 The tension between immigration and population decline 448 4 Data and method 449 5 Explaining population size preferences 451 6 Conclusion and discussion 457 7 Acknowledgements 459 References 460 Appendix: Properties of scale variables 463 Demographic Research: Volume 25, Article 13 Research Article Who fears and who welcomes population decline? Hendrik P. van Dalen1 Kène Henkens2 Abstract European countries are experiencing population decline, and the tacit assumption in most analyses is that this decline may have detrimental effects on welfare. In this paper, we use a survey conducted in the Netherlands to find out whether population decline is always met with fear. -
Immigration and the Stable Population Model
IMMIGRATION AND THE STABLE POPULATION MODEL Thomas J. Espenshade The Urban Institute, 2100 M Street, N. W., Washington, D.C. 20037, USA Leon F. Bouvier Population Reference Bureau, 1337 Connecticut Avenue, N. W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA W. Brian Arthur International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria RR-82-29 August 1982 Reprinted from Demography, volume 19(1) (1982) INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Laxenburg, Austria Research Reports, which record research conducted at IIASA, are independently reviewed before publication. However, the views and opinions they express are not necessarily those of the Institute or the National Member Organizations that support it. Reprinted with permission from Demography 19(1): 125-133, 1982. Copyright© 1982 Population Association of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright holder. iii FOREWORD For some years, IIASA has had a keen interest in problems of population dynamics and migration policy. In this paper, reprinted from Demography, Thomas Espenshade, Leon Bouvier, and Brian Arthur extend the traditional methods of stable population theory to populations with below-replacement fertility and a constant annual quota of in-migrants. They show that such a situation results in a stationary population and examine how its size and ethnic structure depend on both the fertility level and the migration quota. DEMOGRAPHY© Volume 19, Number 1 Februory 1982 IMMIGRATION AND THE STABLE POPULATION MODEL Thomos J. -
New Perspectives on Tibetan Fertility and Population Decline Author(S): Melvyn C
New Perspectives on Tibetan Fertility and Population Decline Author(s): Melvyn C. Goldstein Source: American Ethnologist, Vol. 8, No. 4 (Nov., 1981), pp. 721-738 Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of the American Anthropological Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/643961 Accessed: 11/10/2010 09:36 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=black. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Blackwell Publishing and American Anthropological Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to American Ethnologist. http://www.jstor.org new perspectives on Tibetan fertility and population decline MELVYN C. -
Ecological Footprint
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT HK 2019 CONTENTS MESSAGE FROM THE 02 ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DIRECTOR OF CONSERVATION 04 GLOBAL TREND If everyone led the lifestyle of Hong Kongers, 4.2 Earths would be required to fulfil our resource needs, a significant increase from the 2016 figure of 3.9 Earths. Hong Kong’s 06 HONG KONG TREND Ecological Footprint is the second worst per-capita in the Asia-Pacific region and tenth worst globally. 08 PRODUCTIVE LAND & SEA Half of the Hong Kong’s Ecological Footprint comes from food (21%), clothing (15%), personal transportation (8%), and electricity (7%). 10 FOOD 21% Since the 1970s, Hong Kong’s economy has seen an average of 8.9% growth of GDP in real 12 CLOTHING 15% terms annually. Its Ecological Footprint recorded an annual 5% growth till the mid-90s. During the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and 1998, both GDP and Ecological Footprint 14 CASE STUDIES dropped. As GDP dropped so did our strain on natural resources. Consistent trends of GDP and Ecological Footprint were seen during the SARS outbreak in 16 CHANGE THE WAY WE LIVE 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. Since 2009, the economy started to recover, and the Ecological Footprint has worsened ever since. With the continual growth of our GDP, our Ecological Footprint may continue to increase if we adopt a business-as- usual approach. A shift in our daily habits, coupled with support from business and government, can help to stem the runaway consumption that is impacting the habitats and natural resources we depend on. -
Human Population 2018 Lecture 8 Ecological Footprint
Human Population 2018 Lecture 8 Ecological footprint. The Daly criterea. Questions from the reading. pp. 87-107 Herman Daly “All my economists say, ‘on the one hand...on the other'. Give me a one- handed economist,” demanded a frustrated Harry S Truman. BOOKS Daly, Herman E. (1991) [1977]. Steady-State Economics (2nd. ed.). Washington, DC: Island Press. Daly, Herman E.; Cobb, John B., Jr (1994) [1989]. For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (2nd. updated and expanded ed.). Boston: Beacon Press.. Received the Grawemeyer Award for ideas for improving World Order. Daly, Herman E. (1996). Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development. Boston: Beacon Press. ISBN 9780807047095. Prugh, Thomas; Costanza, Robert; Daly, Herman E. (2000). The Local Politics of Global Sustainability. Washington, DC: Island Press. IS The Daly Criterea for sustainability • For a renewable resource, the sustainable rate to use can be no more than the rate of regeneration of its source. • For a non-renewable resource, the sustainable rate of use can be no greater than the rate at which a renewable resource, used sustainably, can be substituted for it. • For a pollutant, the sustainable rate of emmission can be no greater that the rate it can be recycled, absorbed or rendered harmless in its sink. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/ Ecosystem services Herbivore numbers control Carbon capture and Plant oxygen recycling and production soil replenishment Soil maintenance and processing Carbon and water storage system Do we need wild species? (negative) • We depend mostly on domesticated species for food (chickens...). • Food for domesticated species is itself from domesticated species (grains..) • Domesticated plants only need water, nutrients and light. -
Causes of Urban Shrinkage: an Overview of European Cities Stephen Platt
Causes of Urban Shrinkage: an overview of European cities Stephen Platt Reference: Platt S (2004) Causes of Urban Shrinkage: an overview of European cities. COST CIRES Conference, University of Amsterdam 16-18 February COST CIRES Conference, University of Amsterdam 16-18 February Causes of Urban Shrinkage: an overview of European cities Stephen Platt A number of interrelated factors contribute to or trigger urban shrinkage in European cities. In general there are three principal widespread structural causes of urban decline – economic, social and demographic change. Climate change may also come to play an increasingly role in migration, but to date environmental factors are not a significant cause of shrinkage. Secondary outcomes, for example the migration of young or highly skilled individuals, poorer service provision, regional specialisation or house price differentials, may exacerbate or contribute to further shrinkage. What might be considered a leading factor, however, and what is merely a consequence will depend on the particular case. There is also a scalar dimension at work. Economic restructuring is a global phenomenon and occurs all over the western world. Lower fertility is wide spread all over Europe, but suburbanisation is regional phenomenon. Interestingly the degree of shrinkage varies between cities in the same region and so cannot solely be explained by such macro factors as de- industrialisation and lower fertility. Local characteristics, for example policy initiatives, blurred property rights in the centre of some Eastern European cities, may also contribute to these different levels of shrinkage. Finally, a distinction should be made between the causes of shrinkage for different types and sizes of settlements. -
A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: the 30-Year Update
do nellameado ws.o rg http://www.donellameadows.org/archives/a-synopsis-limits-to-growth-the-30-year-update/ A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update By Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows Chelsea Green (United States & Canada) Earthscan (United Kingdom and Commonwealth) Diamond, Inc (Japan) Kossoth Publishing Company (Hungary) A Synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update The signs are everywhere around us: Sea level has risen 10–20 cm since 1900. Most non-polar glaciers are retreating, and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer. In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. Meanwhile, the richest one- f if th of the world’s population has 85 percent of the global GNP. And the gap between rich and poor is widening. In 2002, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN estimated that 75 percent of the world’s oceanic f isheries were f ished at or beyond capacity. The North Atlantic cod f ishery, f ished sustainably f or hundreds of years, has collapsed, and the species may have been pushed to biological extinction. The f irst global assessment of soil loss, based on studies of hundreds of experts, f ound that 38 percent, or nearly 1.4 billion acres, of currently used agricultural land has been degraded. Fif ty-f our nations experienced declines in per capita GDP f or more than a decade during the period 1990–2001. These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources f aster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants f aster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless.