Water Situation Report Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area

Monthly water situation report Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area

Summary – December 2014 December’s rainfall has been between 77% and 115% of the long term average and is classified as normal for the time of year. Soil moisture deficits are between 3 and 6 millimetres and below average for the time of year. River flows have been between 72% and 146% of the long term average and classified as normal to above normal for the time of year. Groundwater levels have generally continued to rise and are normal to above normal for the time of year. Rutland and Covenham are operating a little below their normal operating curves, whilst Hollowell and Ravensthorpe are operating at their normal operating curve and Pitsford slightly above its normal operating curve. There were 10 flood alerts and 1 flood warning in December.

Rainfall Rainfall for December has been between 77% and 115% of the long term average this is classified as normal for the time of year. Rainfall for the past 6 months is also considered normal for the time of year, whilst the last 3 and 12 month rainfall totals are still considered to be above normal.

Soil Moisture Deficit/Recharge Soil Moisture deficits for the end of December range between 3 millimetres and 6 millimetres. This is considered below average for the time of year.

River Flows Month mean river flows have been between 72% and 146% of the long term average, with flows classed as normal to above normal for the time of year.

Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels are considered normal to above normal for the time of year. Levels have risen in all monitoring boreholes, except Leasingham and Barton Horkstow where there has been a slight decrease in level.

Reservoir Storage/Water Resource Zone Stocks Rutland and Covenham are currently operating at a little below their normal operating curves whilst Hollowell and Ravensthorpe are operating at their normal operating curve and Pitsford slightly above its normal operating curve.

Environmental Impact There have been 10 flood alerts and 1 flood warning issued in December. One flood alert on the 12 December for Witham in North Kesteven. Four flood alerts on the 26 December for Louth Canal and Waith Beck, Witham in South Kesteven, Barlings Eau and Duckpool catchwater, Bain Catchment. Five flood alerts on the 27 December for Rase and upper Ancholme, Lincolnshire East Coast Rivers, River Steeping, East and West Fens, minor watercourses of South Forty Foot Drain. The flood warning was issued on 28 December for North Bank road alongside the River Nene, east of Peterborough and west of Dog-in-a-doublet-sluice.

Forward Look Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites River projections are no longer cumulative and as with groundwater provide a snapshot of projected conditions in the month being analysed. March 2015: The model suggests a reduced probability of exceptionally low flows in the River Nene. June 2015: The model suggests a decreased probability of below normal flows in the lower River Nene, with the probabilities of the Upper Nene broadly in line with those expected for June.

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein. © Environment Agency 2015

Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers March 2015: There is a greatly reduced probability of below normal levels this March in the Lincolnshire chalk and the Lincolnshire limestone at Hanthorpe and an increased probability of higher than normal levels. September 2015: There is a greatly reduced probability of notably low levels this September in the Lincolnshire chalk and the Lincolnshire limestone at Hanthorpe.

Author: Jenni Murphy Contact details: 01522 785944

Rainfall

Total Rainfall in Millimetres Long Term Average Rainfall in Millimetres 1-Month Period for Louth Grimsby and Ancholme 1-Month Period for Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau

140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60 Rainfall mm Rainfall Rainfall mm Rainfall 40 40

20 20 Jul Jul Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep May May Jan Jun Jan Jun Mar Mar Feb Feb Oct Oct 0 Apr 0 Apr ------14 14 ------14 14 14 14 - - 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

1-Month Period for Witham to Chapel Hill 1-Month Period for South Forty Foot and Hobhole

140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60 Rainfall mm Rainfall mm Rainfall 40 40

20 20 Jul Jul Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep May May Jan Jun Jan Jun Mar Mar Feb Feb Oct Oct 0 Apr 0 Apr ------14 14 ------14 14 14 14 - - 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

1-Month Period for Upper Welland and Nene 1-Month Period for Lower Welland and Nene

140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60 Rainfall mm Rainfall mm Rainfall 40 40

20 20 Jul Jul Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep May May Jan Jun Jan Jun Mar Mar Feb Feb Oct Oct 0 Apr 0 Apr ------14 14 ------14 14 14 14 - - 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

Soil Moisture Deficit

Ancholme - Grimsby - Louth Witham 0 0

20 20

40 40

60 60

80 80

100 100

120 120 SoilMoisture Deficit (mm) SoilMoisture Deficit (mm)

140 140

160 160 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Upper Welland and Nene Lower Welland and Nene 0 0

20 20 40 40 60

60 80

80 100 120 100

SoilMoisture Deficit (mm) SoilMoisture Deficit (mm) 140 120 160

140 180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Min -- -- Mean -- -- Max -- -- 2013 ------2014 ------

River Flow

Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low ─── Latest data Louth Weir, LUD Rase Bishopbridge, ANCHOLME Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1968 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Jun-1967 to Dec-2012

2.0 3.0 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.0

Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow 0.6 (cumecs) Flow 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Claypole, UPPER WITHAM Partney, LYMN & STEEPING Ranking derived from data for the period May-1959 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period May-1962 to Dec-2012

8 2.0

7 1.8 1.6 6 1.4 5 1.2 4 1.0

3 0.8

Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow (cumecs) Flow 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0.0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Fulsby and Fulsby Model combined, BAIN Langworth, BARLINGS EAU Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1962 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1980 to Dec-2012

6 10 9 5 8 7 4 6 3 5 4 2 Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow 3 2 1 1 0 0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Ashley, WELLAND Kates Bridge plus King Street, GLEN Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1970 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1991 to Dec-2012

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow 2 (cumecs) Flow 2

1 1

0 0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low ─── Latest data Upton Mill Total, NENE - KISLINGBURY BRANCH St.Andrews total, NENE - BRAMPTON BRANCH Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Jan-1970 to Dec-2012

5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2

Flow (cumecs) (cumecs) Flow 2 (cumecs) Flow 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Groundwater Levels

Exceptionally high Notably high Above normal Normal Below normal Notably low Exceptionally low ─── Latest data Dunholme Rd, Scothern Castlethorpe Bridge Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1979 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Nov-1996 to Dec-2012

23 3

22 3

21 2 20 2 19 1 18 1 17 Level (mAOD) Level (mAOD) Level 16 0 15 -1 14 -1 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14

Leasingham Exploratory Grange Farm, Aswarby Ranking derived from data for the period Sep-1972 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Dec-1970 to Dec-2012

23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16

15 14

Level (mAOD) Level 13 (mAOD) Level 12

11 10

9 8 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Greatford, Liffington Hanthorpe Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1974 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Jul-1972 to Dec-2012

16 18

16 14 14 12 12 10 10

Level (mAOD) Level 8 (mAOD) Level 8

6 6

4 4 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Grainsby Barton Horkstow Road Ranking derived from data for the period Oct-1977 to Dec-2012 Ranking derived from data for the period Apr-1980 to Dec-2012

8 21 7 19 6 17 5 15 4 13 3 11 2 Level (mAOD) Level (mAOD) Level 9 1 7 0 5 -1 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

Reservoir Stocks

Rutland Covenham

100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 Reservoir level (% level Reservoir (% of total) level Reservoir (% of total) 10 10 0 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Pitsford, Hollowell and Ravensthorpe

Normal Operating Curve ------2010-2012 ------2013-2014 ------

Forward Look – River Flows

March 2015: The model suggests a reduced probability of exceptionally low flows in the River Nene.

Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the surface water flow at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2015

Forward Look – River Flows

June 2015: The model suggests a decreased probability of below normal flows in the lower River Nene, with the probabilities of the Upper Nene broadly in line with those expected for June.

Forward Look - Groundwater

March 2015: There is a greatly reduced probability of below normal levels this March in the Lincolnshire chalk and the Lincolnshire limestone at Hanthorpe and an increased probability of higher than normal levels.

Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year. (Source: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Agency) Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2015

Forward Look - Groundwater

September 2015: There is a greatly reduced probability of notably low levels this September in the Lincolnshire chalk and the Lincolnshire limestone at Hanthorpe

Glossary Term Definition

Aquifer A geological formation able to store and transmit water.

Areal average rainfall The estimated average depth of rainfall over a defined area. Expressed in depth of water (mm).

Artesian The condition where the groundwater level is above ground surface but is prevented from rising to this level by an overlying continuous low permeability layer, such as clay.

Artesian borehole Borehole where the level of groundwater is above the top of the borehole and groundwater flows out of the borehole when unsealed.

Cumecs Cubic metres per second (m3s-1)

Effective rainfall The rainfall available to percolate into the soil or produce river flow. Expressed in depth of water (mm).

Flood Alert/Flood Warning Three levels of warnings may be issued by the Environment Agency. Flood Alerts indicate flooding is possible. Flood Warnings indicate flooding is expected. Severe Flood Warnings indicate severe flooding.

Groundwater The water found in an aquifer.

Long term average (LTA) The arithmetic mean calculated from the historic record, usually based on the period 1961-1990. However, the period used may vary by parameter being reported on (see figure captions for details).

mAOD Metres Above Ordnance Datum (mean sea level at Newlyn Cornwall).

MORECS Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System. Met Office service providing real time calculation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit and effective rainfall on a 40 x 40 km grid.

Naturalised flow River flow with the impacts of artificial influences removed. Artificial influences may include abstractions, discharges, transfers, augmentation and impoundments.

NCIC National Climate Information Centre. NCIC area monthly rainfall totals are derived using the Met Office 5 km gridded dataset, which uses rain gauge observations.

Recharge The process of increasing the water stored in the saturated zone of an aquifer. Expressed in depth of water (mm).

Reservoir gross capacity The total capacity of a reservoir.

Reservoir live capacity The capacity of the reservoir that is normally usable for storage to meet established reservoir operating requirements. This excludes any capacity not available for use (e.g. storage held back for emergency services, operating agreements or physical restrictions). May also be referred to as ‘net’ or ‘deployable’ capacity.

Soil moisture deficit (SMD) The difference between the amount of water actually in the soil and the amount of water the soil can hold. Expressed in depth of water (mm).