The Indian Jour of Agricultural Economics U

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• ••••• • ••••••- THE INDIAN JOUR OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS U. S. DEPARTMENT' OF ht.

(Organ of the Indian Society of Agricultural Economics)

1 Vol. XIV JANUARY—MARCH 1959 No. I

CONTENTS

ARTICLES

Agricultural Economic Theory and Policy .R. Bellerby

Recent Trends in the Yield of Rice and Wheat in India • • • • • • V; G. Panse

Index of Cost of Cultivation .. S. D. Bokil

A Statistical Study of the Rainfall Data at the four District Headquarter Stations of the former Bombay State during the period from D. S.Rangez Rao 1931-32 to 1955-56 • • V. N. Panditrao

RESEARCH NOTES -

Resource Earnings on Farms in Karchana Tehsil of Allahabad District, Estimated from Farm Survey Records _ • • A. Wycliffe

Economic AsPects of Fertilization B. Vasanth Kumar

Land Mortgage Banking in India • • C. B. Akkad

GLEANINGS

BOOK REVIEWS (see inside cover)

R . 4.00 BOOK REVIEWS

Page Bansil, P. C. India's Food Resources and V. M. Jakhade 85 Population

Krishnaswamy, S Y. Food Production in India: b. A. Joshi 86 Principles and Problems

Dube, S. C. , India's Changing Villages: . .,••• Victor S. D'Souza 87 .Human Factors in Comm- nity Development

Desai, N. B. Report on the Administrative S. V. Ramanuirty 90 Survey of the Surat District

EDITORIAL BOARD

Prof. M. L. Dantwala Joint Editors Dr. M. B. Desai

Shri V. M. Jakhade

Shri G. B. Kulkarni

Dr. G. D. Agrawal,

The copyright and all rights of reproduction and translation of articles, book reviews and correspondence published in THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS are reserved by the Society. Application for permission to translate or reproduce any material contained in it should be made to the Honorary Secretary, The Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, 46-48, Esplanade Mansions, Mahatma Gandhi Road, Fort, Bombay-1. THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Vol. XIV JANUARY—MARCH 1959 I No. I

CONTENTS

ARTICLES Page

Agricultural Economic Theory and Policy •. J. R. BeHerby 1

Recent Trends in the Yield of Rice and Wheat in 11 •• •• • 00 V. G.Panse India .• • • •

Index of Cost of Cultivation .• • • • • S. D. Bokil 39

A Statistical Study of the Rainfall Data at the four District Headquarter Stations of the former Bombay State during the period from D. S. Ratzga Rao 1931-32 to 1955-56 • • • • V. N.Panditrao 49

RESEARCH NOTES

Resource Earnings on Farms in Karchana Tehsil of Allahabad District, Estimated from Farm Survey Records .. • • • • • • • • • • A. Wycliffe 65

Economic Aspects of Fertilization • • • • B. Vasanth Kumar 68

Land Mortgage Banking in India . • • • • C. B. Akkad 72

GLEANINGS .. 77

BOOK REVIEWS •• •• .• •• 85 CONTENTS Page

REVIEWS IN BRIEF .. •• •• •• 92

ADDITIONS TO THE LIBRARY .. • • • • 98 ANNOUNCEMENT

NINETEENTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE SOCIETY, DECEMBER, 1959. • • • • 107 REPORT OF THE HONORARY SECRETARY AND TREASURER OF THE SOCIETY FOR • THE YEAR ENDING 31ST DECEMBER,1958.. 107 RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND ce, WHEAT IN INDIA* En By ge r- V. G. Vanse

INTRODUCTION A few years back the author had examined the trend in crop yields with the help of official yield statistics for the principal food crops, rice, wheat, jowar in and maize and two important commercial crops, cotton and sugarcane in the five al States, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bombay and Madras, over the to period 1910-11 to 1945-46 (Panse, 1952). It was then pointed out that the results to of any study based on official yield records cannot be considered conclusive in view of the subjective nature of these yield estimates. One serious defect noted in the official yield statistics was that they did not fully reflect seasonal variations in )n yield. Thanks to the pioneering work of the Indian Council of Agricultural :e Research in initiating large scale crop cutting surveys by random sampling in the ty country since 1943, the situation has improved steadily and at present objective to estimates of yield determined with a high degree of precision on the basis of crop ty cutting are available for the entire area covered by the food crops, rice, wheat, re jowar, bajra, etc., Orissa State being the only major exception for rice. The co- ly ordination of these large scale surveys was transferred to the Crop Survey Wing - of the National Sample Survey from 1953, but the pattern of work has continued. unchanged and a reliable series of comparable yield data for rice and wheat extending over 10 years or more for a large portion of the area under these crops in the country has become available for the first time for critical study. In the context of the national Plans, the value of these data and the close bearing of conclusions drawn from their analysis on planning for increased food production need no elaboration.

The period chosen for the present analysis is one of 10 years from 1946-47 to 1955-56 and consists of the entire first Five Year Plan period and a corresponding period just preceding it, since the major interest of the analysis is to bring out any changes in crop yields that may have taken place during the plan period as compared to the previous 'control' period. Rice and wheat crops have been chosen for reports and *The bulk of the yield data analysed in the present paper was extracted from the of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research and the Crop Survey records of crop-cutting surveys from the Wing of the National Sample Survey. Yield figures for West Bengal were partly available by the State Statistical Bureau and were partly supplied by the Director Statistical Abstract published Review of of the Bureau from records. Yield figures for Bombay were obtained partly from the by the Government of Bombay in 1950 and were supplied Crop Cutting Experiments publiished were partly by the Statistician of the Agriculture Department of the State. Data on crop acreages and Statistics, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Govern- provided by the Directorate of Economics and ment of India. Rainfall data for the more recent years which were not available in the Season for the respective States by Director of Statistics, Assam, Director of Crop Reports were supplied Bihar, Statistical Bureau, West Bengal, Director of Central Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Uttar Pradesh, Statistician, Agriculture Department, Chief Statistician, Agriculture Department, Depart- Punjab, Statistician, Land Records Department, Madhya Pradesh, Statistician, Agriculture Director of Statistics, ment, Bombay, Director of Economics and Statistics, Andhra Pradesh and to these officers and organizations for their co-opera- le Madras. The author's sincere thanks are due K. acknowledge the painstaking and careful work done by Shrt. M. tion. The author also wishes to J. S Mami. and Bose in the compilation and computation of the data and the assistance given by Shri Shri 1K. Sharma in the calculations. 12 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

study for the reason that they have been receiving most attention during the plan period. It is also for these crops that maximum amount of yield data, extending over approximately 65 per cent of the area under each crop, are available for the period, as rice and wheat were the first crops to be experimented with, when crop survey work was started by I. C. A. R. The coverage of the yield data used in the present analysis will be clear from table I for rice and table 2 for wheat. The techniques of crop-cutting surveys by which yields are estimated in these areas, with the exception of West Bengal, is described in the L C. A. R. bulletin,'Sample surveys for the estimation of yield of food crops' publish,-2d in 1950 and the under- lying statistical theory by Sukhatme and Panse (1951). The crop-cutting surveys in West Bengal which are the source of the rice data for that state are carried out according to the method developed by the Indian Statistical Institute and differ from the former in certain details such as size and shape of the crop-cutting plot, agency carrying out crop-cutting, etc. (Mahalanobis, 1948).

CROP-CUTTING DATA

Although crop-cutting surveys are planned to provide district-wise estimates of yield, the data used in the present analysis are division-wise annual yields per acre, the division consisting of compact administrative groups of upto 7 districts each (tables 1 and 2). The divisional yield is a weighted average of district yields, the weight being the area of the crop in the district in the particular year. The divisional yield thus represents regional yield and is determined with an appreciable degree of precision. Sampling errors of annual estimates of divisional yields have usually ranged between 2 to 7 per cent both for wheat and rice; but for individual major districts they have gone up to 10 per cent and occasionally higher. In the more recent years, the scale of sampling per district seems to have been somewhat lower, o wing to the surveys having been extended to several crops, and sampling errors would be correspondingly higher. For the States as they were constituted during the period under consideration, the annual yield was determined with a high degree of precision, the sampling errors being 1.5 per cent or less for Uttar Pradesh and below 3.0 per cent for the other States.

All States in India for which annual data for yields based on crop cutting are available for the ten-year period chosen for study are included in the analysis. Punjab and Assam had, however, no crop-cutting surveys in 1946-47. Similarly all divisions in which any appreciable number of crop-cuttings were done annually in one or more districts have been taken into consideration. The districts included under each division are those in which crop cutting was done annually for the ten- year period and whose boundaries have remained unaltered during this period, this being an essential condition for comparability of yields between years. An- other factor affecting comparability in rice is the type of crop considered. While in Bombay and Madhya Pradesh States there is only one rice crop grown annually, in other states two or more crops are grown. In Madras and Andhra States both the first and second crops are included in the data, leaving out only the summer crop, which is confined to a small area. In Bengal both aus and anion crop and in Uttar Pradesh the early and late crop have been taken into account. In Bihar and Assam, however, only the data on winter rice have been analysed as crop- cutting was not extended to the autumn crop during the earlier years of the series. 13 RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT paper Because of these limitations, the yield data examined in the present wheat, in refer to about 65 per cent of the area under each crop, rice and on these the country, although the present coverage of the crop-cutting surveys Annual crops is almost complete, with the major exception of Orissa in rice. 10 for rice and estimates of divisional yields for each state are given in tables 3 to for rice tables 11 to 15 for wheat. State-wise yield figures are given in table 16 area under and table 17 for wheat. Divisional yield figures have been weighted by a restricted the crop to prepare these two tables. Combined or all-India figures in listed in sense, since these are based only on the crop-cutting data for territories values, tables 1 and 2, given at the bottom of tables 16 and 17 are also weighted used as the state area figures for the crop covered by crop-cutting survey being in Figure 1 Weights. The yield data in these two tables are shown graphically t, for rice and in Figure 2 for wheat.

ANALYSIS AND RESULTS of rice The principal interest in the present analysis is to compare yield rates with those )f and wheat during the first five year plan period (1951-52 to 1955-56) states of the pre-plan period of a similar duration (1946-47 to 1950-51),in different to partition the 11 and for the country as a whole. It is necessary for this purpose States, recorded Le observed among annual divisional yields in the different variation ascribable in tables 3 to 10 for rice and tables 11 to 15 for wheat, into components between the average :e to different causes, so as to determine how large the difference brought about yields in the two periods is in each state as compared to differences with the help )r by uncontrollable causes like weather. This partitioning is done divides the of a statistical technique known as the analysis of variance, which following corn- - total observed variation among the yields in each state into the Ponents the Plan and (a) Variation between the two sets of five years, representing pre-Plan periods. (b) Variation between individual years within each period. (c) Variation between divisions. and divisions. (d) Variation representing interaction between periods individual years (e) Uncontrolled variation representing interaction between within periods with divisions. show whether the A comparison of component (a) with component (e) will pre-plan periods is sta- difference in the average yield level between the plan and from random fluctua- tistically significant, that is real, or is only such as can arise ascribed to the latter. of seasonal yields and can therefore be reasonably tions in table 18 and The analyses of variance for different states for rice are shown for wheat in table 19. level of rice bet- It will be seen from table 18 that real differences in the yield West Bengal, Andhra ween the plan and pre-plan periods are observed only in not significant and may and Madras, while in the other States the differences are also show signi- be ascribed to seasonal fluctuations, The analyses of variance 14 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ficant differences between divisions in the different States, which means that each division has its characteristic yield rate as influenced by soil, type of crop, rainfall, and other features of the division. Individual years over the State as a whole show significant also differences in yield owing to the broad variation in climate from year to year.

Average yields in each state for the plan and pre-plan periods, their difference, the standard error of this difference and the difference expressed as a percentage of the average yield in the pre-plan period are shown in table 20 for rice. The corresponding combined (all-India) yields and their difference are shown at the bottom of the table. As expected the larger differences in yield are those for Andhra, Madras and West Bengal, where the average annual yield in the plan period was higher than the pre-plan yield level by one maund of rice per acre in West Bengal and nearly two maunds of rice per acre in Andhra and Madras, these increases representing 10.7 per cent of the pre-plan yield in West Bengal and 15.4 and 16.2 per cent in Andhra and Madras respectively. It may be noted that differences in other states are much smaller and non-significant. In Uttar Pradesh the average yield in the plan period was 6.4 per cent less than in the pre-plan period, but this difference, as in other states, should be ascribed to seasonal fluctuations and there is no reason to conclude that there has been any real deterioration in yield in Uttar Pradesh. Taking all available crop-cutting data into account, we see that the all -India average yield was just half a maund of rice per acre or 5.4 per cent higher in the plan period as compared to the pre-plan period. Reference to Fig. 1 will show that it is only in Andhra, Madras and West Bengal that the annual yields show a clear upward trend, especially during the second quinquennium, while in the other States there is no indication of any such trend, the annual yields fluctuating around a steady average level. The combined yield does show some upward trend, obviously due to the influence of the yield trends in the first three States.

Turning to wheat, the analyses of variance of annual yield in table 19 show that differences in average yield between the plan and pre-plan periods were significant in all States except Bihar. As in rice, there were also distinct differences in yield between divisions and between individual years over the State as a whole in all States, except Bihar. Average yields in each state for the plan and pre- plan periods, their differences together with standard errors and the differences expressed as percentages of the yield in the pre-plan period are given in table 21. All differences were in the same direction, yields in the plan period being higher than the pre-plan yields and ranged between half a maund to one and a quarter maund per acre. The difference for Bihar was lowest and was accompanied by a high standard error which rendered it non-significant. Percentage differences ranged from 5.2 for Punjab to 27.1 for Bombay. The combined or all-India difference was 7/8 maund of wheat per acre or 11.8 per cent higher than the pre- plan yield. It will be seen from Fig. 2 that there was an upward trend in the annual yields in all states except Bihar. The combined yield also shows a clear upward trend.

CLIMATIC FACTORS

We have thus reliable evidence that the average yield per acre in the plan period was higher by half a maund for rice and 7/8 maund for wheat, over the RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 15 major portion of the area under these crops in the country. This increase was shared mainly by three States, Andhra, Madras and West Bengal, as far as rice was concerned and by four States, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Bombay in wheat. It would, however, be misleading to ascribe this increase entirely to whatever efforts were made in that direction under the plan, since the Climatic factors have their influence and the fluctuations in annual yields during the period under study show that these factors have been stronger in comparison to planned efforts for raising the level of yield. For instance, the average all- India yield per acre of wheat in 1955-56, the last year of the first five year plan, was lower than in the preceding three years (Fig. 2). Similarly, the all-India yield for rice was lower in 1954-55 than in the previous year (Fig. 1). Again in wheat there was a serious rust epidemic in Madhya Pradesh and Bombay in the year 1946-47 which must have been partly responsible for lowering the yield in these two states in the pre-plan period, thereby inflating the yield in the plan period. individual years, especially by It is also for this reason that comparison between taking a particular year as a base year as is frequently done, are likely to lead to grossly erroneous conclusions concerning the real effectiveness of planned efforts in increasing production. In considering the results of the first five year plan, 1949-50 is sometimes taken as the base year. Fig. 1 shows that the all-India yield per acre of rice was second lowest in that year among the five pre-plan years, while for important rice producing states Andhra and Madras it was the year of lowest yield in the series. It is obvious that such a comparison will increase artificially the yield in the plan period. The argument that the base year is chosen because a it is considered normal means little, as it is impossible to define unequivocally normal year.

One relatively simple remedy against this difficulty is to make comparisons based on averages over several years. Climatic influences may be regarded reasonably as being scattered randomly among different years and their disturbance in yield tends to cancel out when yield is averaged over years. From this point of view the longer the series of years the better but then apart from the difficulty of availability of reliable yield data over a long series of years, gradual changes in agricultural techniques are likely to affect the averages, rendering comparisons biassed. In the context of the five year plans, a period of five years would appear suitable for averaging yields and it is for this reason that averages over the pre- plan period of five years are used as the basis for comparison with yields during the plan period in the present study. These averages appear generally satisfactory but cannot cope with serious abnormalities occurring in one or two years during of a five year period, as seems to be the case with wheat, with the rust epidemic 1946-47. Although, therefore, comparisons between average yields during the freed Plan and pre-plan periods in tables 20 and 21 may be regarded as having been are not substantially from disturbing climatic and other seasonal factors, they totally free from these effects and hence the caution in ascribing the observed differences between the two periods to planned efforts.

The question may be asked whether a more rigorous adjustment cannot be in- made in the yields to allow for climatic factors and thereby eliminate their because fluence altogether from the comparisons. This does not seem possible factors what is termed climate is a resultant of numerous interacting meteorological indirectly which affect the crop growth and production not only directly but also 16 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

through their influence on the spread of diseases and pests on crops. For studying o the effect of individual weather factors like rainfall, temperature, sunshine, etc. - Si on crop yield, R. A. Fisher has developed elegant statistical techniques based on regression analysis and following his classical papers on this subject several studies have been carried out in England, India and elsewhere on the effect of rainfall 1 weather and other factors on different crops. Fisher's method takes into account it the not only seasonal average or total of the weather factor concerned, but also e. distribution its within the season. The calculations involved are naturally la- o borious, but the results obtained are not very satisfying in the sense that even v adjustment, after a major portion of variation in annual yields remains behind I.( small part of it only a being accounted for by the variation in the annual value n of the particular weather factor and its seasonal disfribution. a

All the same, an attempt was made in the present study to examine the relationship between rainfall and yield, since rainfall is a major climatic factor affect- ft ing crops in India. For simplicity only the total annual rainfall was considered for rice and its breakup into two periods, April to September and October to March, e; for wheat. It was considered that this analysis should bring out the greater component of the relationship between rainfall and yield, even if the effects due to a peculiarities of the seasonal distribution of rainfall are obscured. For this ana- ti lysis both the actual rainfall and its deviation from the normal rainfall of the region were used. The reason for the latter was the possibility that cultivation methods and levels of crop production in a region had adjusted themselves to the characteristic or normal rainfall of the region and a comparison of the res- ponse of crops to departures from the normal rainfall of the region would be more sensitive than to deviations from the average regional rainfall for a short period of 5 or 10 years. In tables 3 to 10 for rice and tables 11 to 15 for wheat are in- eluded annual rainfall figures along with the yield for each division. The divisional rainfalls were computed as weighted averages of district rainfall figures available in meteorological tables, the weights being the district averages of the particular crop. Normal rainfall figures for districts are also given in meteorological tables, these being based on records of40 to 60 years and divisional normals were computed also as weighted averages.

A second degree regression equation based on annual rainfall as well as annual deviations from normal rainfall was fitted to yield data for rice given in tables 3 to 10 and for wheat given in tables 11 to 15. As mentioned earlier, the annual rainfall was further split up into two periods, April to September and October to March, before fitting the second degree equation on annual rainfall to the yield data for wheat. The results of all regression analyses for this crop, however, proved negative, in the sense that the rainfall as examined did not show any sen- sible influence on the annual variation in wheat yields. Irrigation cannot be advanced as a reason, since there_is hardly any area under irrigated wheat in Ma- dhya Pradesh, while in Bombay and Bihar it is less than 25 per cent of the total area under wheat. Even in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh where wheat is irrigated to a considerable extent, slightly more than half the area under the crop depends on rainfall alone. It is possible that the distribution of rain over the season, rather than the gross rainfall total for several months, has a predominant effect on the wheat crop. It is also likely that the other climatic factors, like temperature, hu- midity etc., are important both directly in determining the growth and maturity RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 17 of the crop and indirectly by affecting the spread of diseases and pests like rust, stem borer, etc., on the crop, and need to be studied in conjunction with rainfall.

With rice the results of the regression analyses on rainfall were more positive. :The uncontrolled seasonal variation in yield represented by the mean square under Item (e) of the analyses of variance of yields (table 18) was reduced in all states except Andhra and Madras, when yields were adjusted to eliminate the influence of the variation in annual rainfall with the help of quadratic regression. The variation accounted for by linear and quadratic components of regression and the residual uncontrolled variation are shown in table 22. The reduction in this mean square was statistically significant in Uttar .Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Bombay States. It is interesting to note that this reduction was greater when based on regression of yield on deviations from normal rainfall than on annual rainfall itself in all States except Assam, thus confirming the belief that departures from normal regional rainfall would provide a more sensative index of the effect of rainfall on rice yield. The lack of influence of rainfall on yield can be explained easily for Andhra and Madras where practically the entire area, i.e., 90 per cent or more, except the West Coast division of Madras which has a heavy normal annual rainfall of 130 inches, is irrigated. Assam similarly has a heavy rainfall, the normal annual total being 90 inches. Only in Madhya Pradesh with its mo- derate annual rainfall of 55 inches and a limited area of about 20 per cent under irrigation, it is difficult to understand the absence of a significant relationship between rainfall and rice yield.

The linear and quadratic regression co-efficients which measure the rates at which yield is changed with changes in rainfall are included in table 22. In the four States, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Bombay, where the effect of rainfall on yield was significant and in Assam, the linear co-efficient is positive and large and the quadratic coefficient negative and small, both when calculated on annual rainfall and deviations from normal rainfall. This means that higher rainfall increases yield, although the rate of increase tends to slow down with very high rainfall. The rate of increase in yield with increasing rainfall is lower when the regression is based on departures from normal rainfall than on actual rainfall as evinced by the consistently and appreciably smaller value of the positive linear regression co-efficient mid the somewhat larger value of the negative quadratic coefficient for regression on deviations from normal rainfall in the five States. This is still a noteworthy result as it means that supply of additional water to the rice crop over and above that secured from the normal rainfall in these states can be relied upon to increase the yield of the crop beyond its present level. Exten- sion of irrigation to the rice crop in these States should therefore not be regarded as a mere protection against vagaries of rain, but as a positive measure for increasing yield by supplementing the normal rainfall. Apparently, under pressure of growing population, the cultivation of the ricp crop has spread to areas where it cannot meet its full demand for water from local rainfall.

Yield per acre of rice adjusted to eliminate variation due to differences in rainfall between the pre-plan and plan periods in each state are shown in table 23. The adjustments were based on both regression analyses, and the original unadjusted yields for the two periods are also reproduced from table 20 for comparison. The most striking change brought about by the adjustment wfts in raising 18 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS fa the excess of yield in the plan period on that in the pre-plan period in West Bengal from 89 lb. per acre to 150 and 152 lb. per acre, that is, nearly doubling it. In other words, had the rainfall in that State not been in deficit during the plan period, a substantially higher increase would have been achieved in the yield of rice. p1 di The difference in yield between the plan and pre-plan periods were not affected at all by adjustment for rainfall in Andhra and Madras as was to be expected. in Our earlier conclusion regarding the appreciable increase in yield in the three as states, Andhra, Madras and West Bengal, during the plan period is thus confirmed after eliminating the possible influence of the important climatic factor of rainfall. An interesting result of adjustment was the change of sign for the difference in yield between the two periods in Uttar Pradesh, indicating as mentioned earlier 1 that the original deficit in yield during the plan period was the result of lower rainfall in that period. Bombay showed a similar change but Assam showed it in the opposite direction. These changes are consistent with the total rainfall in 2 these States during the two periods, but are small in magnitude and subject to appreciable standard errors. The overall effect of adjustment for variation in 3 rainfall was to raise the excess in the combined or all-India yield in the plan period from 40 to 51 and 59 lb. per acre. This is interpreted as indicating that had there been no difference in rainfall between the two periods, the increase in yield which was actually half a maund per acre during the plan period might have been nearly three-quarters of a maund. The results of adjustment illustrate how uncontrolled climatic factors influence yields and affect the improvement in production to be expected from planned efforts.

SUMMARY

Data for yield per acre from large scale crop cutting surveys on rice and wheat in India for ten years, 1946-47 to 1955-56, have been examined in the present paper in order to study the trend in the yield of these two most important food crops. The yield data analysed extend over 65 per cent of the area under these crops in the country and the States concerned are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Bombay, Andhra and Madras for rice and Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Bombay for wheat. Strictly comparable yields from crop cutting were available only in these states for the period under study. The main interest of the analysis was the comparison of average yield during the first five year plan period, 1951-52 to 1955-56, with the average for the immediately preceding five years treated as a control. Results showed that the average yield per acre was higher by 5.4 per cent for rice and 11.8 per cent for wheat in the plan period than in the preceding quinquennium. The increase in rice yield was contributed by three States, Madras, Andhra and West Bengal, and that in wheat by all the five States, although the increase in Bihar was not statistically significant.

The comparison of average yields over several years, as is done in the present study, is a safeguard against undue influence of weather which is liable to vitiate comparisons of annual yields. Even so, it is not possible to rid the average yields based only on five years completely from serious disturbances such as rust epidemic on wheat in one or two years. Making a rigorous allowance for the multitude of weather factors on crop yield is an extremely difficult undertaking, but an attempt was made to adjust the yields of both rice and wheat for inequalities of rain RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 19

fall over the series of years under study by means of a regression analysis. This analysis was without any effect on wheat ; but the adjusted rice yields showed an overall increase of 8.0 per cent during the plan period as compared to the pre- Plan period. This indicates that the rainfall was slightly less favourable generally during the plan Period. An interesting conclusion derived from this analysis was that irrigation can be introduced in some rice areas as a positive measure for increasing yield by supplementing the normal rainfall of the area and not merely as a protection against the vagaries of rainfall.

REFERENCES

1. Indian Council of Agricultural Research (1950)—Sample Surveys for Estimation of the Yield of Food Crops, Bulletin Series No. 1, 1950. Crop Survey 1944-45, Department of Agriculture, 1 2. Mahalanobis,P. C.(1948)—Report on Bengal Forests and Fisheries, West Bengal, Government Press, Alipore, West Bengal, 1948. 1 3. Panse V. G. (1952)—Trends in Areas and Yields of Principal Crops in India, Agricultural Situation in India, 7, 144-148' 4. Sukhatme, P. V. and Panse, V. G.(1951)—Crop Surveys in India—II, J. Ind. Soc. Agri. Stat., 1 3, 97-168. 20 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

FIGURE 1—TRENDS IN AVERAGE YIELD IN LBS. PERIACRE OF RICE IN INDIA: 1945-46 TO 1955-56 1340

ANDHRA 0.3M MED 260 MADRAS M.P •

W. BENGAL — — BIHAR asmus 0 swar• mow* ‘s. A N01:42A l80 BOMBAY U; P 11,• • *41 . ASSAM x —x

1100 MADRAS

0 020

/ • i _k N' r \ N Ns 44, i' /"A %\ 1\. - 940 Ns ,i..f. i ../.'.4. -Y1 i- \ .9,- s• ,'' ./ N, v. W.BENGAL \ \ itic ",-7,-)< BOMBAY // /\ / ,. ‘v \- , v ,ASSAM 860 /I / , 0 .0/ , \/ N/ / COM31NZO UI ,' \ • cc 780 A M.P. cc UI I' 700 1' 6\....„...j --..,,..„...I/ -----, 620 .1--- 9 cc UI u.P. ‹, 540

460 I—

ISO

300

1945-4 48-47 47-43 42-49 49-50 70-51 51-52 52.53 53-54 54-55 5 YEARS RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 21

OF WHEAT IN INDIA: 1945-46 To 1955-56 FIGURE 2—TRENDS IN AVERAGE YIELD IN LBs. PER ACRE

PUNJAB BIHAR

1J. p. M.P.

C B CH ED El0 M BAY .1 040,

/,..s • 1 950 / • ‘,. • / 1, / // / • / • / • / • 1 / ‘ / • I 1 •%...... / • 880 / / • • • • % PUMJAS.

2 800 4., 0 a. ,-Y / Z 720L --x--"I'-\+ • ,-,- -3-, •

640 N.4.. 4, \COM thINED ••••••••••••%.

...... •••• 560 cc BIHAR -t cc MP. 420

• 400

320 7-*- A. 240

16(2 V.

I94-46 45-47 47 - 8 48-49 49-50 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-5A '54-Ss 5544 1f EAR5 22 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS TABLE 1-DISTRICTS, DIVISIONS AND STATES FOR WHICH YIELD DATA ON RICE ARE ANALYSED State Division District 1. Uttar Pradesh .. I. Meerut I. Saharanpur 2. Muzaffarnagar 2. Rohilkhand _ 1. Bareilly 2. Budaun 3. Shahjanpur 4. Pilibhit 3. Allahabad 1. Etawah 2. Kanpur 3. Fatehpur 4. Allahabad

4. Banaras I. Banaras 2. Mirzapur 3. Jaunpur 4. Ghazipur 5. Ballia 5. Gorakhpur 1. Gorakhpur 2. Basti 3. Azamgarh 4. Deoria

6. Lucknow 1. Lucknow 2. Unao 3. Rae Bareilly 4. Sitapur 5. Hardoi 6. Kheri 7. Fyzabad 1. Fyzabad 2. Gonda 3. Bahraich 4. Sultanpur 5. Partapgarh 2. Bihar .. •• •• .. 1. Patna 1. Patna 2. Gaya 3. Shahabad 2. Tirhut 1. Saran 2. Champaram 3. Muzaffarpur 4. Darbhanga 3. Bhagalpur 1. Monghyr 2. Saharsa 3. Bhagalpur 4. Purnea 5. Santal Parganas 4. Chotanagpur 1. Hazaribagh 2. Ranchi 3. Palamau 4. Manbhum 5. Singhbhum 3. West Bengal • • 1. Burdwan 1. Burdwan 2. Birthum 3. Bankura 4. Midnaporo 5. Howrah 6. Hoogly RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 23

State Division District 2. Presidency 1. 24 Parganas 2. Nadia 3. Murshidabad 4., West Dinajpur 5. Malda 6. Jalpaiguri 4. Assam • • • • 1. Assam 1. Cachar 2. Darrang 3. Kamrup 4. Lakhimpur 5. Nowgong 6. Sibsagar 5. Madhya Pradesh • • • • 1. Jubbulpore 1. Jubbulpore 2. Mandla 3. Sangar 2. Nagpui 1. Chanda- 2. Chhindwara 3. Chattisgarh 1. Bhandara 2. Balajhot 3. Durg 4. Raipur 5. Bilaspur 6. Bombay.• • • • • 1. Gujrat 1. Kaira 2. Panch Mahals 3. Surat 2. Konkan 1. Thana 2. Kolaba 3. Ratnagiri 4. Kanara 3. Karnatak 1. Belgaum 2. Dharwar 7. Andhra.. • • • • 1. Circars 1. Vizagapatam 2. East Godavari 3. West Godavari 4. Kistna 5. Guntur 2. Camatic 1. Nellore 3. Central 1. Chittoor 8. Madras.. • • • • • • 1. Carnatic 1. Chingleput 2. South Arcot 2. Central 1. North Arcot 2. Trichinopoly 3. South 1. Tanjore 2. Madura 3. Ramnad 4. Tinnevelly 4. West Coast 1. Malabar 2. South Kanara. 24 TBE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

TABLE 2-DISTRICTS, DIVISIONS AND STATES FOR WHICH YIELD DATA ON WHEAT ARE ANALYSED State Division District -1. Punjab 1. Ambala 1. Hissar 2. Rohtak 3. Gurgaon 4. Kamal 5. Ambala 2. Jullundur 1. Kangra 2. Hoshiarpur 3. Jullundur 4. Ludhiana 5. Ferozepore 6. Amritsar 7. Gurdaspur

2. Uttar Pradesh .. •• 1. Meerut I. Dehra Dun 2. Saharanpur 3. Mazaffamagar 4. Meerut 5. Buland Shahar 2. Agra 1. Aligarh 2. Mathura 3. Agra 4. Mainpuri 5. Etah 3. Robilkhand 1. Bareilly 2. Bijnor 3. Budawn 4. Moradabad 5. Shahajahanpur 6. Pilibhit 4. Allahabad 1. Farrukhabad 2. Etawah 3. Kanpur 4. Fatehpur 5. Allahabad 5. Jhansi I. Jhansi 2. Jalaun 3. Hamirpur 4. Banda 6. Banaras 1. Banaras 2. Mirzapur 3. Jaunpur 4. Ghazipur 5. Ballia 3. Bihar .. •• •• 1. Patna 1. Patna 2. Gaya 3. Shahabad 2. Tirhut 1. Saran 2. Champaram 3. Muzaffarpur 4. Darbhanga 3. Bhagalpur 1. Monghyr 2. Bhagalpur 3. Saharsa 4. Pumea 5. Santal Parganas RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND WHEAT 25

State Division District 4. Madhya Pradesh 1. Jabbulpore I. Saugar 2. Jubbulpore 3. Mandla 4. Hoshangabad 5. Nimar 2. Nagpur 1. Betul 2. Chhindwara 3. Wardha 4. Nagpur 5. Chanda 3. Chattisgarh 1. Bhandara 2. Drug 3. Raipur 4. Bilaspur 5. Balaghat 4. Berar I. Akola 2. Amraoti 3. Buladana 4. Yeotmal 5. Bombay.. • • • • 1. Gujrat 1. Ahmedabad 2. Broach 2. Deccan 1. West Khandesh 2. East Khandesli 3. Nasik 4. Ahmednagar 3. Karnatak 1. BeIgaum 2. Bijapur 3. Dharwar. TABLE 3-DIVISI0NAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, UTTAR PRADESH, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1. Meerut .. Yield 773 503 764 509 589 450* 555 685 557 519 rainfall 38.2 35.6 40.9 32.0 45.3 23.6 33.3 38.9 32.5 49.9 2. Rohilkhand .. .. yield 585 522 479 484 462 365 350 553 476 561 rainfall 41.7 35.9 43.9 44.4 38.7 28.5 28.5 44.1 40.9 55.2 in 3. Allahabad .. .. yield 529 629 667 636 493 640 433 591 629 668 rainfall 31.7 32.5 55.2 39.0 34.5 33.9 32.6 46.8 33.1 46.1 4. Banaras • • .. yield 608 419 566 472 367 363 391 511 255 648 rainfall 50.0 32.3 65.1 44.2 44.6 31.4 35.0 48.0 25.5 46.0 C 5. Gorakhpur .. .. yield 521 600 687 492 429 251 477 546 549 524 rainfall 46.4 43.0 56.3, 46.6 37.9 31.9 41.0 57.8 35.5 77.0 r- 6. Lucknow .• yield 444 577 520 431 440 368 401 507 588 661 OF rainfall 32.5 42.4 42.2 46.0 35.2 26.2 32.7 46.0 41.9 51.6 AGRICULTURAL 7. Fyzabad .. .. yield 416 557 595 427 359 - . 323 435 503 499 583 rainfall 38.7 44.8 50.1 40.9 34.1 , 28.4 35.9 57.2 36.9 72.1 * Calculated value in the absence of crop cutting results. TABLE 4-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, BIHAR, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year ECONOMICS Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53- 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 I. Patna .. • • yield 694 477 646 561 329 415 602 752 468 711 rainfall 53.8 34.9 55.4 42.2 40.0 32.9 41.4 50.1 33.4 37.3

- 2. Tirhut • • • • yield 549 610 594 555 253 437 599 618 473 533 rainfall 38.3 47.8 52.6 55.4 37.5 . 47.0 48.1 77.4 43.7 57.8 3. Bhagalpur • • .. yield 661 695 561 543 386 482 617 762 533 650 rainfall 49.3 47.4 56.4 58.8 55.1 49.4 53.6 75.4, 51.5 53.9 _ - 4. Chota Nagpur .. yield 937 859 790 813 635 . 695 732 963 574 792 rainfall 60.5 49.1 58.8 51.3 59.2 46.4 51.2 76.3 41.6 45.5

. TABLE 5-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES,.WEST BENGAL, 1946-47 TO _1955756 . TABLE 5-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES,.WEST BENGAL, 1946-47 To.1955756 . Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 841 784 841 985 935 949 1249 881 998 I. Burdwan • • .. yield 866 rainfall 60.9 46.2 60.5 50.6 60.5 47.7 50.2 56.3 40.0 54.5 828 837 "). Presidency .. .. yield 754 783 801 831 780 677 769 976 - rainfall - 68.6 64.4 80.9 67.1 • 71.7 68.4 71.1 73.4 66.1 80.0 IN1D311

OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, ASSAM, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 - • TABLE 6-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE SC/NE[1U Year

1955-56 MIL Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54. 1954-55

979 989 926 825 898 968 939 1017 881 • • yield. I. Plains .. alai./ rainfall 111.6 99.2 90.6 71.6 92.2 102.9 90.3 89.6 98.6 0 * No crop cutting survey in 1946-47.

tri TABLE 7-DivistoNAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, MADHYA PRADESH, 1946-47 TO 1955-56

Year CINV CINV

1954-55 1955-56 Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 560 485 ivallm 1. Jubbulpur yield 519 582 542 508 205 464 380 443 rainfall 67.3 69.0 65.5 53.4 54.6 44.1 56.8 41..2 49.2 52.8 ,.. '831 839 2. Nagpur .. .• yield 749 927 776 777 430 738 700 779 rainfall 48.4 49.8 48.0 58.7 37.4 43.7 28.9 57.0 50.3 66.3 670 659 792 3. Chatisgarh • • yield 747 758 692 772 460 678 671 rainfall 56.3 66.9 54.3 57.5 48.1 44.1 44.5 46.8 45.3 53.7 NAL CALL NO. AD-245 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NAL USE ONLY (8-71) NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL LIBRARY LENDING DIVISION LIIIIHC f PC I 1 RC I ME BELTSVILLE, MD. 20705

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AD-245 (8-71) REVERSE PAGE 4 TABLE 8-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, BOMBAY, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

1. Gujrat • • • • yield 878 646 358 616 589 108 382 750 704 610 rainfall 47.2 30.6 19.8 34.9 43.6 19.8 30.5 48.4 62.1 45.9 2. Konkan .. .. yield 1068 1010 1082 949 962 929 1069 1289 1155 1113 rainfall 111.9 97.8 118.1 116.3 96.5 114.9 88.2 124.8 139.5 148.3 3. Karrigak • • • • yield 808 935 846 793 1084 887 764 885 969 802 rainfall 56.2 40.3 47.4 29.4 51.8 41.2 41.4 69.3 55.8 34.2

TABLE 9-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, ANDHRA, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

1. Circars • • yield 1019 1102 1084 859 1104 1113 1089 1255 1333 1233 rainfall 34.3 44.3 38.6 47.1. 37.7 37.8 45.2 35.8 49.8 43.4 2. Carnatic • • • • yield 876 556 923 820 814 485 •899 910 963 1152 rainfall 59.4 24.7 32.8 31.4 31.8 31.9 24.1 32.5 44.7 21.6 3. Central - • • .. yield 1163 1026 975 1055 1102 1045 1154 1196 1300 1199 rainfall 49.3 25.5 28.4 31.6 27.8 23.5 29.5 36.7 38.8 28.0

.. • • • . • •...,s• • .••••• • ..s•f• r• r 7.• A 71 • TV 717,4 777,, A • TI 10 _A1 1CICC-<4 MADRAS, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 TABLE 10-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, Year

1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49

1077 1220 769 717 747 821 918 936 1002 1. Carnafic .. • • yield 868 30.1 49.7 52.6 40.5 rainfall 73.3 32.9 36.0 29.3 32.9 35.5 1288 1387 980 942 1050 1171 1106 1143 1166 2. Central • • • • yield 1096 31.2 40.6 38.0 35.1 rainfall 47.9 30.3 30.1 30.5 26.7 27.8 1209 1090 982 987 799 1031 1014 928 ' 1078 3. South • • • • yield 788 26.9 42.9 42.4 37.8 rainfall .. 54.8 27.6 0.8 31.6 33.2 31.0 898 859 746 840 773 760 821 778 784 4. West Coast .. • • yield 865 99.3 '125.4 157.5 142.4 rainfall 159.5 128.8 144.6 122.3 134.5 116.0

ANNUALRAINFALLINCHES,PUNJAB, 1946-47 To 1955-56 TABLE ii-DIVISIONALYIELDLB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT AND Year

••••••••• 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 Division tri

1054 1101 1023 890 936 1052 992 1053 1159 1. Ambala .. yield 14.8 23.6 26.7 19.6 23.4 rainfall 28.1 24.8 27.9 25.7 894 952 742 735 836 961 843 796 908 2. Jullundur .. yield 23.6 26.4 34.5 32.7 44.0 rainfall 45.3 37.2 36.9 45.8

* No crop cutting survey in 1946-47. TABLE 12-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, UTTAR PRADESH, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

I. Meerut • • Fl • • yield 558 763 737 866 914 886 839 942 rainfall 34.6 877 698 30.3 38.8 30.2 41.8 25.7 30.4 33.4 30.5 45.6 2. Agra • • • • yield 691 676 . 727 . 842. 763 .. 787 . rainfall 1109. 842 875 869 25.1 29.6 29.6 37.0 26.5 21.8 28.0 21.6 24.9 36.0 3. Rohilkhand .. yield 600 577 456 617 660 620 592 rainfall 728 694 585 42.3 32.9 50.2 .39.6 37.4. _27.6 30.3 41.4 36.2 47.0 4. Allahabad • yield 602 732 632 722 670 713 881 737 rainfall 824 822 • 28.5 34.6 49.6 41.1 34.8 25.4 34.0 41.0 31.2 39.3 5. Jhansi • . • • yield 510 580 633 678 718 509 597 610 . rainfall 867 784 .33.8 37.8 42.4 33.3 29.6 33.2 36.5 36.2 33.9 36.7 6. Bantams .. • • yield 619 681 523 662 700 621* 742 740 rainfall 737 653 49.7 32.8 65.8 44.4 44.6 31.5 34.8 48.0 25.4 46.3 7. Gorakhpur • • .. yield 818 761 488 789 644 597 789 rainfall 676 789 608 46.7 44.5 57.9 46.9 38.2 32.6 41.6 55.9 35.2 78.5 8, Lucknow • • yield. 685 701 536 602 753 609 750 682 rainfall 703 570 32.3 42.7 42.1 46.5 33.3 23.3 34.2 45.8 42.4 51.1 9. Fyzabad yield 700 626. 418 564 665 532 750 631 765 626 rainfall 38.5 46.0 51.3 45.4 33.7 26.8 36.6 56.2 38.4 71.0

* Calculated value in the absence of crop cutting results.

4,14, 1-7 inc.c_(4 TABLE 13-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT Am)ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, BIHAR, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 '1955-56

• 1. Patna • • yield 409 448 373 505 '455 429 622 568 612 451 rainfall 58.1 35.7 • S7.5• 42.2 41.0 33.1 41.9 50.1 33.5 .37.9 2. Tirhut • • • • yield 523 702 593 526 364 338 479 629 511 600 rainfall 49.2 • 465 52.5 53.3 '36.9 451 46.4 76..4 40.9 56.2 tUlli

'3. Bhagalpur yield 531 "618 • 581 408 318 404 552 488 675 612 SU rainfall 43.6 45.5 56.0 62.3 50.0 46.8 46.5 61.1 46.0 54.6

tri - TABLE 14-DIVISIONAL YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, MADHYA PRADESH, 1946-47 TO 1955-.56 Year

?.! Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 -1955-56 n Fl

0 1. Jubbulpur yield 118 378- 628 516 '681 451 509 549 678 535 rainfall 62.5 71.6 61.0 ' 51.1 47.5 37.5 49.2 40.4 48.2 56.0 rri 2. Nagpur • • • • yield 63 280 448 399 -512 470 458 456 511 436 rainfall 46.3 47.7 47.6 53.3 31.6 39.8 25.0 43.6 49.3 57.1 -i 3. Chathisgarh •. yield 110 226 405 377 340 390 462 412 464 491 rainfall 57.0 62.5- 544 52.5 • 45.0 45.5 44.5 45:4 43.0 54.3 4. Berar yield 17 282 344 353 410 • 368 246 322 388 438 rainfall 40.1 35.6 40.0 48.0 26.8 27.4 24.3 32.9 36.0 43.2 TABLE 15-DIVISIONA1 YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT AND ANNUAL RAINFALL INCHES, BOMBAY, 1946-47 TO 1955-56 Year

Division 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56

1. Gujrat

'• • • • yield THE 275 395 167 380 342 327 280 376 403 rainfall 36.4 32.0 363 9.4 28.3 43.3 16.4 30.6 36.7 39.8 30.8

2. Deccan • • • • yield INDIAN 28 316 299 376 347 274 192 369 375 rainfall 32.4 27.8 406 29.1 33.6 17.7 18.1 12.9 18.7 25.7 37.2 3. Karnatak • • • • yield 21 170 58 192 194 146 186 230 259 273

rainfall 40.9 29.5 JOURNAL 33.5 25.3 37.5 33.4 29.1 51.1 40.5 29.8

TABLE 16-AVERAGE YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF RICE IN DIFFERENT STATES, 1946-47 TO 1955-56

Year OF AGRICULTURAL AGRICULTURAL State 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 Uttar Pradesh •. • • • • • • 513 551 608 477 417 437 433 535 501 590 Bihar • •• •• •• 696 669 636 618 405 511 640 790 515 676 West Bengal .. .8 8. 819.

816 . 791 • 837 902 826 873 1130 858. 927 ECONOMICS ECONOMICS Assam . - .. • • * 979 989 926 825 898 968 939 1017 881. Madhya Pradesh • • _ • . 728 758 686 750 435 663 .647 659 659 776 Bombay • • • • 982 .. 924 911 823 851 674 810 1059 980 910 Andhra • • • • 1011 1043 1062 867. 1070 1048 1067 1208 1289 1215 Madras • • .• •. 868 882 893 822 941 960 920 1009 1123 1115 Combined (All-India) • • 769 786 775 721 646 683 740 879 781 840 - * No crop cutting survey in 1946-47.

STATES, 1946-47 To 1955-56 TABLE 17--AVERAGE YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF %MEAT IN DIFFERENT • * No crop cutting survey in 1946-47.

TABLE 17—AVERAGE YIELD LB. PER ACRE OF WHEAT IN DIFFERENT STATES, 1946-47 To 1955-56 Year

1954-55 1955-56 State 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54

RECENT

941 999 839 1. Punjab •• •• •• * 773 864 989 886 871 981

TRENDS

770 741 770 682 2. Uttar Pradesh • • .• •. 642 674 c66 703 729 661

_ IN

568 604 545 THE 3. Bihar • • •. •. 483 583 507 488 389 389 557

YIELD 462 486 580 493 4. Madhya Pradesh .. • • • • 89 327 526 453 576 441

338 347 RICE • • • • 83 289 168 307 287 217 207 319

AND

604 577 655 662 610 694 687 745 642 WHEAT Combined (All-India) .. • • • • 440 -

* No crop cutting survey in 1946-47. TABLE 18—ANALYSES OF VARIANCE OF ANNUAL DIVISIONAL YIELDS PER ACRE OF RICE IN DIFFERENT STATES Mean squares for components of variation

(a) Plan v. pre- 7(d) Interaction of (e) Interaction of plan periods (b) Individual years within periods (c) Divisions divisions with divisions with the periods State individual years pre-plan period plan period

degrees degrees degrees degrees degrees degrees of mean sq. of mean sq. of mean of mean of mean of mean sq. freedom freedom freedom sq. freedom sq. freedom sq. freedom

1. Uttar Pradesh • • • • 1 18064 4 26882** 4 45116** 6 28883** 6 3808 47t 6270 2. , Bihar .. • • • • 1 1690 4 57816** 4 50973** 3 128826** 3 5582 24 3453 3. West Bengal • • • • 1 34694** 4 2432 4 28780** 1 83592** 1 15512 8 3896 4. Assam • • • • • • 1 262 — — — _ _ _ . _ — 7 4126 5. Madhya Pradesh 1 1920 4 69338** 4 8869** 2 224005** / 1639 16 1487 6. Bombay .. • • • • 1 1442 4 12826 4 58298* 2 634888** / 26460 16 18877 7. Andhra .. • • 1 115072** 4 10017 4 53037* 2 277617** 2 5895 16 12400 8. Madras .. • • • • 1 220522** 4 6306, 4 31273** 3 184566 3 19816* 24 5385

* Significant 5%. ** Significant 1%. t One less due to fitted value.

ACRE OF WHEAT IN DIFFERENT STATES TABLE 19—ANALYSES OF VARIANCE OF ANNUAL DIVISIONAL YIELDS PER TABLE 19—ANALYSES OF VARIANCE OF ANNUAL DIVISIONAL YIELDS PER ACRE OF WHEAT IN DIFFERENT STATES Mean squares for components of variation

(a) Plan v. pre- (d) Interaction of (e) Interaction of plan periods (b) Individual years within periods (c) Divisions divisions with divisions with the periods individual years State pre-plan period plan period

degrees degrees degrees degrees degrees degrees of mean sq. of mean sq. of mean sq. of mean sq. of mean of mean sq. LI freedom freedom freedom freedom freedom sq. freedom

7 1291 I. Punjab ...... 1 17542** 3 13041** 4 8475** 1 141335** 1 10102* 63t 6332 2. Uttar Pradesh .. .. 1 98340** 4 31365** 4 30199** 8 55900** 8 6565 16 7214 3. Bihar .. • • .. 1 12648 4 17219 4 19756 2 4329 2 10700 3624 24 3022 4. Madhya Pradesh .. 1 115348** 4 111093** 4 6342 3 62578** 3 0 11 1994 16 3097 5. Bombay ...... 1 26940** 4 24949** 4 10516* 2 69492** 2

* Significant 5%. ** Significant 1%. f One less du. e to fitted value. 36 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

TABLE 20—AVERAGE YIELD (LB. PER ACRE) OF RICE IN DIFFERENT STATES FOR THE PRE-PLAN AND PLAN PERIODS

Pre-plan Plan Difference Standard Difference State period period (Plan— error of as % of 1946-47 to 1951-52 to pre-Plan) differ- yield in 1950-51 1955-56 ence pre-Plan period

_ 1. Uttar Pradesh .. .. 513 480 —33 22 —6.4

2. Bihar 00 .. 414, 605 626 21 19 3.5 1. 3. West Bengal .. .. 833 922 89 28 10.7 4. Assam .. .. 00 930 941 11 43 1'2 5. Madhya Pradesh .. 671 681 10 20 1.5 6. Bombay .. 00 891 886 —5 56 —0.6 7. Andhra Pradesh .. 1009 1164 155 41 15.4 8. Madras ...... 881 1024 143 25 16.2

Combined (all -India) • • 743 783 40 10 5-4 5

TABLE 6 21—AVERAGE YIELD (LB. PER ACRE) OF WHEAT IN DIFFERENT STATES FOR THE PRE-PLAN AND PLAN PERIODS

7 Pre-plan Plan Difference Standard Difference State period period (Plan— error of as % of 1946-47 to 1951-52 to pre-Plan) differ- yield in E 1950-51 1955-56 Mice pre-Plan period

1. Punjab ...... 879 925 46 18 5.2 2. Uttar Pradesh .. .. 661 729 68 18 10.3 3. Bihar • • • • .. 488 531 43 31 8'8 4. Madhya Pradesh .. 394 493 99 22 25'l _ 5. Bombay ...... 225 286 61 21 27.1

Combined (all-India) 604 675 71 10 11.8 RECENT TRENDS IN THE YIELD OF RICE AND. WHEAT. 37

TABLE 22-ANALYSES OF REGRESSION AND REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS OF YIELD OF RICE ON RAINFALL

•••••••• Regression based on actual Regression based on rainfall deviation from normal rainfall State Components Regression Components Regression of mean coefficient for mean coefficient squaret for squaret for uncontrolled uncontrolled variation. .variation.

1. Uttar Pradesh • • Linear 27458* 23.15 27057* 7.40 quadratic 44581** - 0.19 58700** -0.28 residual 4947 4642 2. Bihar •• Linear 7471 20.90 12729* 5.31 quadratic 12543** - 0.16 13641* - 0.24 residual 2857 2568

3. West Bengal .. Linear 19961* 22.98 24044** 19.64 quadratic 992 - 0.06 828 . - 0.14 residual 1702 1049 4. Assam .. .. .• linear 10748 25.76 10547 3.52 quadratic 2285 - 0.12 2316 - 0.13 residual 3169 3203 5. Madhya Pradesh linear 0 13.71 1 - 1.45 quadratic 3992 - 0.14 4330 - 0.14 residual 1415 1390 6. Bombay.. .. linear 27803 11.81 26692 5.97 quadratic 56524 - 0.05 101991! - 0.21 residual 15551 12382 7. Andhra .. .. linear 300 - 13.75 367 - 2.33 quadratic 4318 0.17 10675 0.31 residual 13842 13383 8. Madras.. .. linear 1798 - 2.33 2043 - 1.08 quadratic 720 0.01 11803 0.13 residual 5760 5245

* Significant 5 per cent. ** Significant 1 per cent Component(e) in nnalyses of variance table 18. 38 THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

TABLE 23-YIELD OF RICE LB. PER ACRE IN PRE-PLAN AND PLAN PERIODS, UNADJUSTED AND ADJUSTED FOR REGRESSION ON RAINFALL

Adjusted for regression Adjusted for regression Unadjusted on actual rainfall on deviation from normal rainfall Pre- Differ- Pre- Differ- Pre- Differ- State plan Plan ence plan Plan ence plan Plan ence Plan Plan Plan —Pre- —Pre- —Pre- plan plan plan

1. Uttar Pradesh .. 513 480 —33 506 487 —19 501 506 5 2. Bihar ...... 605 626 21 595 633 38 597 634 37 3. West Bengal .. .. 833 922 89 832 962 130 810 962 152 4. Assam .. .. • • 930 941 11 945 929 —16 945 929 —16 5. Madhya Pradesh .. 671 681 10 672 673 1 673 673 0 6. Bombay.. .. • • 891 886 —5 831 836 5 888 903 15 7. Andhra...... 1009 1164 155 1020 1173 153 1022 1177 155 8. Madras .. • • 881 1024 143 880 1022 142 881 1025 144

Combined all-India .. 743 783 40 739 790 15 737 796 59