Nuclear Briefcase": a Russian Document Analysis
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Dialectical Versus Empirical Thinking: Ten Key Elements of the Russian Understanding of Information Operations
WARNING! The views expressed in FMSO publications and reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Dialectical Versus Empirical Thinking: Ten Key Elements of the Russian Understanding of Information Operations CALL Publication #98-21 by Mr. Thimothy L. Thomas Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS. This article was previously published in The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, Vol. 11, No 1 (March 1998), pp. 40-62. and Conflict Studies Research Centre, RMA Sandhurst, England, July 1997, Report AA29 Introduction Finding similarities in the Russian and U.S. approaches to information operations (IO) is not a difficult task. Both countries' specialists closely study electronic warfare and command and control systems of other countries, and both stress the importance of the use of computers and information management in the preparation and conduct of modern combat operations. This includes the use of information to conduct psychological operations (PSYOP). Upon closer examination, however, the Russian approach to the information warfare (IW) aspect of IO has several elements that makes it unique and different. There are three principal reasons for the distinct Russian method. First, there is the issue of overall context. The Russian state, economy, and society are in a transition period resulting in institutional and philosophical instability. Russian mass consciousness, according to many prominent scientists and government officials, is vulnerable to manipulation by slick marketing campaigns and to exploitation by promises of economic and social prosperity during this transition period. -
Inside Russia's Intelligence Agencies
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN BRIEF POLICY RELATIONS ecfr.eu PUTIN’S HYDRA: INSIDE RUSSIA’S INTELLIGENCE SERVICES Mark Galeotti For his birthday in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin was treated to an exhibition of faux Greek friezes showing SUMMARY him in the guise of Hercules. In one, he was slaying the • Russia’s intelligence agencies are engaged in an “hydra of sanctions”.1 active and aggressive campaign in support of the Kremlin’s wider geopolitical agenda. The image of the hydra – a voracious and vicious multi- headed beast, guided by a single mind, and which grows • As well as espionage, Moscow’s “special services” new heads as soon as one is lopped off – crops up frequently conduct active measures aimed at subverting in discussions of Russia’s intelligence and security services. and destabilising European governments, Murdered dissident Alexander Litvinenko and his co-author operations in support of Russian economic Yuri Felshtinsky wrote of the way “the old KGB, like some interests, and attacks on political enemies. multi-headed hydra, split into four new structures” after 1991.2 More recently, a British counterintelligence officer • Moscow has developed an array of overlapping described Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as and competitive security and spy services. The a hydra because of the way that, for every plot foiled or aim is to encourage risk-taking and multiple operative expelled, more quickly appear. sources, but it also leads to turf wars and a tendency to play to Kremlin prejudices. The West finds itself in a new “hot peace” in which many consider Russia not just as an irritant or challenge, but • While much useful intelligence is collected, as an outright threat. -
The Siloviki in Russian Politics
The Siloviki in Russian Politics Andrei Soldatov and Michael Rochlitz Who holds power and makes political decisions in contemporary Russia? A brief survey of available literature in any well-stocked bookshop in the US or Europe will quickly lead one to the answer: Putin and the “siloviki” (see e.g. LeVine 2009; Soldatov and Borogan 2010; Harding 2011; Felshtinsky and Pribylovsky 2012; Lucas 2012, 2014 or Dawisha 2014). Sila in Russian means force, and the siloviki are the members of Russia’s so called “force ministries”—those state agencies that are authorized to use violence to respond to threats to national security. These armed agents are often portrayed—by journalists and scholars alike—as Russia’s true rulers. A conventional wisdom has emerged about their rise to dominance, which goes roughly as follows. After taking office in 2000, Putin reconsolidated the security services and then gradually placed his former associates from the KGB and FSB in key positions across the country (Petrov 2002; Kryshtanovskaya and White 2003, 2009). Over the years, this group managed to disable almost all competing sources of power and control. United by a common identity, a shared worldview, and a deep personal loyalty to Putin, the siloviki constitute a cohesive corporation, which has entrenched itself at the heart of Russian politics. Accountable to no one but the president himself, they are the driving force behind increasingly authoritarian policies at home (Illarionov 2009; Roxburgh 2013; Kasparov 2015), an aggressive foreign policy (Lucas 2014), and high levels of state predation and corruption (Dawisha 2014). While this interpretation contains elements of truth, we argue that it provides only a partial and sometimes misleading and exaggerated picture of the siloviki’s actual role. -
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation
Organized Crime and the Russian State Challenges to U.S.-Russian Cooperation J. MICHAEL WALLER "They write I'm the mafia's godfather. It was Vladimir Ilich Lenin who was the real organizer of the mafia and who set up the criminal state." -Otari Kvantrishvili, Moscow organized crime leader.l "Criminals Nave already conquered the heights of the state-with the chief of the KGB as head of a mafia group." -Former KGB Maj. Gen. Oleg Kalugin.2 Introduction As the United States and Russia launch a Great Crusade against organized crime, questions emerge not only about the nature of joint cooperation, but about the nature of organized crime itself. In addition to narcotics trafficking, financial fraud and racketecring, Russian organized crime poses an even greater danger: the theft and t:rafficking of weapons of mass destruction. To date, most of the discussion of organized crime based in Russia and other former Soviet republics has emphasized the need to combat conven- tional-style gangsters and high-tech terrorists. These forms of criminals are a pressing danger in and of themselves, but the problem is far more profound. Organized crime-and the rarnpant corruption that helps it flourish-presents a threat not only to the security of reforms in Russia, but to the United States as well. The need for cooperation is real. The question is, Who is there in Russia that the United States can find as an effective partner? "Superpower of Crime" One of the greatest mistakes the West can make in working with former Soviet republics to fight organized crime is to fall into the trap of mirror- imaging. -
Dacha Sweet Dacha Place Attachment in the Urban Allotment Gardens of Kaliningrad, Russia Pavel Grabalov
Dacha Sweet Dacha Place Attachment in the Urban Allotment Gardens of Kaliningrad, Russia Pavel Grabalov Urban Studies Two-year Master Programme Thesis, 30 credits Spring/2017 Supervisor: Tomas Wikström 2 Lopakhin: Up until now, in the countryside, we only had landlords and peasants, but now we have summer people. All the towns, even the smallest ones are surrounded by summer cottages [dachas] now. And it’s a sure thing that in twenty years’ time summer people will have multiplied to an incredible extent. Today a person is sitting on his balcony drinking tea, but he could start cultivating his land, and then your cherry orchard will become a happy, rich, and gorgeous place… Anton Chekhov, “The Cherry Orchard” (1903), translated by Marina Brodskaya Cover photo: The urban allotment gardens on Katina street in Kaliningrad. December 2017. Source: Artem Kilkin. 3 Grabalov, Pavel. “Dacha Sweet Dacha: Place Attachment in the Urban Allotment Gardens of Kaliningrad, Russia.” Master of Science thesis, Malmö University, 2017. Summary Official planning documents and strategies often look at cities from above neglecting people’s experiences and practices. Meanwhile cities as meaningful places are constructed though citizens’ practices, memories and ties with their surroundings. The purpose of this phenomenological study is to discover people’s bonds with their urban allotment gardens – dachas – in the Russian city of Kaliningrad and to explore the significance of these bonds for city development. The phenomenon of the dacha has a long history in Russia. Similar to urban allotment gardens in other countries, dachas are an essential part of the city landscape in many post-socialist countries but differ by their large scale. -
The Blind Leading the Blind
WORKING PAPER #60 The Blind Leading the Blind: Soviet Advisors, Counter-Insurgency and Nation-Building in Afghanistan By Artemy Kalinovsky, January 2010 COLD War INTernaTionaL HISTorY ProjecT Working Paper No. 60 The Blind Leading the Blind: Soviet Advisors, Counter-Insurgency and Nation-Building in Afghanistan By Artemy Kalinovsky THE COLD WAR INTERNATIONAL HISTORY PROJECT WORKING PAPER SERIES Christian F. Ostermann and Mircea Munteanu Series Editors This paper is one of a series of Working Papers published by the Cold War International History Project of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. Established in 1991 by a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Cold War International History Project (CWIHP) disseminates new information and perspectives on the history of the Cold War as it emerges from previously inaccessible sources on “the other side” of the post-World War II superpower rivalry. The project supports the full and prompt release of historical materials by governments on all sides of the Cold War, and seeks to accelerate the process of integrating new sources, materials and perspectives from the former “Communist bloc” with the historiography of the Cold War which has been written over the past few decades largely by Western scholars reliant on Western archival sources. It also seeks to transcend barriers of language, geography, and regional specialization to create new links among scholars interested in Cold War history. Among the activities undertaken by the project to promote this aim are a periodic BULLETIN to disseminate new findings, views, and activities pertaining to Cold War history; a fellowship program for young historians from the former Communist bloc to conduct archival research and study Cold War history in the United States; international scholarly meetings, conferences, and seminars; and publications. -
Lukyanov Doctrine: Conceptual Origins of Russia's Hybrid Foreign Policy—The Case of Ukraine
Saint Louis University Law Journal Volume 64 Number 1 Internationalism and Sovereignty Article 3 (Fall 2019) 4-23-2020 Lukyanov Doctrine: Conceptual Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Foreign Policy—The Case of Ukraine. Igor Gretskiy [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.slu.edu/lj Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Igor Gretskiy, Lukyanov Doctrine: Conceptual Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Foreign Policy—The Case of Ukraine., 64 St. Louis U. L.J. (2020). Available at: https://scholarship.law.slu.edu/lj/vol64/iss1/3 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Saint Louis University Law Journal by an authorized editor of Scholarship Commons. For more information, please contact Susie Lee. SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF LAW LUKYANOV DOCTRINE: CONCEPTUAL ORIGINS OF RUSSIA’S HYBRID FOREIGN POLICY—THE CASE OF UKRAINE. IGOR GRETSKIY* Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kremlin’s assertiveness and unpredictability on the international arena has always provoked enormous attention to its foreign policy tools and tactics. Although there was no shortage of publications on topics related to different aspects of Moscow’s foreign policy varying from non-proliferation of nuclear weapons to soft power diplomacy, Russian studies as a discipline found itself deadlocked within the limited number of old dichotomies, (e.g., West/non-West, authoritarianism/democracy, Europe/non-Europe), initially proposed to understand the logic of Russia’s domestic and foreign policy transformations.1 Furthermore, as the decision- making process in Moscow was getting further from being transparent due to the increasingly centralized character of its political system, the emergence of new theoretical frameworks with greater explanatory power was an even more difficult task. -
The Diary of Anatoly S. Chernyaev 1986
The Diary of Anatoly S. Chernyaev 1986 Donated by A.S. Chernyaev to The National Security Archive Translated by Anna Melyakova Edited by Svetlana Savranskaya http://www.nsarchive.org Translation © The National Security Archive, 2007 The Diary of Anatoly S. Chernyaev, 1986 http://www.nsarchive.org January 1st, 1986. At the department1 everyone wished each other to celebrate the New Year 1987 “in the same positions.” And it is true, at the last session of the CC (Central Committee) Secretariat on December 30th, five people were replaced: heads of CC departments, obkom [Oblast Committee] secretaries, heads of executive committees. The Politizdat2 director Belyaev was confirmed as editor of Soviet Culture. [Yegor] Ligachev3 addressed him as one would address a person, who is getting promoted and entrusted with a very crucial position. He said something like this: we hope that you will make the newspaper truly an organ of the Central Committee, that you won’t squander your time on petty matters, but will carry out state and party policies... In other words, culture and its most important control lever were entrusted to a Stalinist pain-in-the neck dullard. What is that supposed to mean? Menshikov’s case is also shocking to me. It is clear that he is a bastard in general. I was never favorably disposed to him; he was tacked on [to our team] without my approval. I had to treat him roughly to make sure no extraterritoriality and privileges were allowed in relation to other consultants, and even in relation to me (which could have been done through [Vadim] Zagladin,4 with whom they are dear friends). -
List of Persons and Entities Under EU Restrictive Measures Over the Territorial Integrity of Ukraine
dhdsh PRESS Council of the European Union EN 1st December 2014 List of persons and entities under EU restrictive measures over the territorial integrity of Ukraine List of persons N. Name Identifying Reasons Date of information listing 1. Sergey Valeryevich d.o.b. 26.11.1972 Aksyonov was elected “Prime Minister of Crimea” in the Crimean Verkhovna Rada on 27 17.3.2014 Aksyonov February 2014 in the presence of pro-Russian gunmen. His “election” was decreed unconstitutional by Oleksandr Turchynov on 1 March. He actively lobbied for the “referendum” of 16 March 2014. 2. Vladimir Andreevich d.o.b. 19.03.1967 As speaker of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Konstantinov 17.3.2014 Konstantinov played a relevant role in the decisions taken by the Verkhovna Rada concerning the “referendum” against territorial integrity of Ukraine and called on voters to cast votes in favour of Crimean Independence. 3. Rustam Ilmirovich d.o.b. 15.08.1976 As Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, Temirgaliev played a relevant role 17.3.2014 Temirgaliev in the decisions taken by the Verkhovna Rada concerning the “referendum” against territorial integrity of Ukraine. He lobbied actively for integration of Crimea into the Russian Federation. 4. Deniz Valentinovich d.o.b. 15.07.1974 Berezovskiy was appointed commander of the Ukrainian Navy on 1 March 2014 and swore an 17.3.2014 Berezovskiy oath to the Crimean armed force, thereby breaking his oath. The Prosecutor-General’s Office of Ukraine launched an investigation against him for high treason. -
US Nuclear War Plan
THE U.S. NUCLEAR WAR PLAN: A TIME FOR CHANGE Authors Matthew G. McKinzie Thomas B. Cochran Robert S. Norris William M. Arkin Natural Resources Defense Council June 2001 Natural Resources Defense Council ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Natural Resources Defense Council and the authors wish to acknowledge the generous support and encouragement given to the NRDC Nuclear Program’s Nuclear War Plans Project by The William Bingham Foundation, the HKH Foundation, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The John Merck Fund, The Prospect Hill Foundation, the Ploughshares Fund, and the W. Alton Jones Foundation. We also wish to thank the 500,000 members of NRDC, without whom our work would not be possible. Many individuals and institutions have assisted in the preparation of this report. The lead author, Matthew G. McKinzie, worked primarily on developing and integrating the software for the analysis of Major Attack Option-Nuclear Forces (MAO-NF). The most important computer software that we used was the Geographic Information System (GIS) program. ArcView was generously provided to NRDC under a grant by the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). The University of Florida Department of Urban and Regional Planning assisted in customizing the ArcView program to fit NRDC requirements. We are particularly indebted to Dr. Ilir Bejleri for his assistance in software programming and file management. Dr. J. Davis Lambert assisted in this work, as did Professor John Alexander who provided management oversight as principal investi- gator under the contract with the University of Florida. The extensive targeting and related databases were developed primarily by Thomas B. -
Mikhail Gorbachev and His Role in the Peaceful Solution of the Cold War
City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works Dissertations and Theses City College of New York 2011 Mikhail Gorbachev and His Role in the Peaceful Solution of the Cold War Natalia Zemtsova CUNY City College How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_etds_theses/49 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] Mikhail Gorbachev and His Role in the Peaceful Solution of the Cold War Natalia Zemtsova May 2011 Master’s Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of International Affairs at the City College of New York Advisor: Jean Krasno ABSTRACT The role of a political leader has always been important for understanding both domestic and world politics. The most significant historical events are usually associated in our minds with the images of the people who were directly involved and who were in charge of the most crucial decisions at that particular moment in time. Thus, analyzing the American Civil War, we always mention the great role and the achievements of Abraham Lincoln as the president of the United States. We cannot forget about the actions of such charismatic leaders as Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Winston Churchill, and Franklin D. Roosevelt when we think about the brutal events and the outcome of the World War II. Or, for example, the Cuban Missile Crisis and its peaceful solution went down in history highlighting roles of John F. -
Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: the Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability
Chapter 8 Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: The Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability Jeffrey Lewis How might bad information affect crisis stability? We like to imag- ine that elites—military offi cials, politicians, and experts—will be immune to the kind of rumor, disinformation, and propaganda with which the internet is awash. This chapter explores that notion, with a nod to political scientist Stephen Van Evera’s notion of blowback—the idea that propaganda can, in fact, warp elite perceptions. Van Evera was concerned about psychological blurring between rhetoric and sin- cere belief while others, like Jack Snyder, another expert on interna- tional relations, emphasized the risk that policy makers might become trapped by political rhetoric.1 This chapter is principally concerned with this idea: that bad infor- mation, even deliberate disinformation knowingly planted by some cyn- ical elites, might “blow back” (or echo) through a wider range of elites and worsen a nuclear crisis. It examines two contemporary case studies of bad information, both of which help illustrate how such informa- tion—to use George P. Shultz’s colorful phrase, “bum dope”—could undermine crisis stability.2 I conclude that the same pathologies seen in online discourse could undermine stability, even in a serious crisis involving nuclear weapons. In short, policy makers tend to engage in public rhetoric that, in turn, shapes their own thinking. Often such statements are propagandistic in their initial formulation. But as they become part of the public dis- course, policy makers tend to believe them. This carries additional risk HH7667-Trinkunas.indb7667-Trinkunas.indb 115959 11/17/20/17/20 88:49:49 AAMM 160 JEFFREY LEWIS in an era of social media.