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Competitiveness and Sustainable Economic Recovery in Thailand

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Competitiveness and Sustainable Economic Recovery in Thailand Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Competitiveness and Sustainable Economic Recovery in Thailand Volume I Proceedings of the Conference "Thailand's Dynamic Economic Recovery and Competitiveness" Bangkok, May 1998 Edited by Johanna Witte, Stefan Koeberle and Milena NOT, The World Bank and Thanin Pa-Em, NESDB A Joint Publication of the Office of the National Economic and Social Developmenit Board and the World Bank Thailand Office Foreword.............................................................................................................................................. v .. Conference Program........................................................................................................................... va Contributors to the Conference............................................................................................................ ix Welcome Address ...................................................................................................... ,.......................... 1 Wirat Wattanasiritharn, NESDB 1 Keynote Speech.................................................. ................................ .................................... ........ 3 Supachai Panitchpakdi, Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand 3 Revisiting Thailand's Competitiveness 3 Session 1. Competitiveness and The Macroeconomic Framework....................................... ........... 7 Presenter: Francis X. Colaqo, Asia-Pacific Management Consultants 7 Thailand's International Competitiveness: A Framework for Increased Productivity 7 Presenter: Kanit Sangsubhan, NESDB 10 Thailand's Macroeconomic Framework and Competitiveness: Current Understanding; and New Policy Considerations 10 Presenter: Dominique Dwor- Frecaut, The World Bank 13 Thailand's Twin Crises: Export Competitiveness, Investment Efficiency and Financial Fragility 13 Presenter: Peter Warr, Australian National University 16 Thailand: What Went Wrong? 16 Discussant: Chalongphop Sussangkam, TDRI 18 Discussant: Teerana Bhongmakapat, Office of the Prime Minister 19 Session 2. Restructuring the Financial System: Options ................................................................... Presenter: Somchai Ruechuphan on behalf of H. E. Dr. Pisit Leeahtam, Ministry of Finance Financial Sector Reform Presenter: S. Ghon Rhee, ADB Thai Capital Markets: Challenges and Reforms Presenter: Bertrand Renaud, The World Bank How The Thai Real Estate Boom Undid Financial Institutions: What Should Be Done Now? Discussant: Bernhard Eschweiler, JP Morgan Discussant: Sirichai Sakornrattanakul, IFCT Session 3. Competitiveness of the Industrial Sector (I): Technology and Corporate Finance ......, Presenters: David Dollar and Mary Hallward-Driemeier, The World Bank Short-Term and Long-Term Competitiveness Issues in Thai Industry Presenter: Stijn Claessens, The World Bank Thailand's Corporate Financing and Governance Structures: Impacts on Firms' Competitiveness Discussant: Chintay Shih, ITRI Discussant: Dong-Sung Cho, Seoul National University Discussant: Akira Goto, Hitotubashi University Discussant : Tawee Butsuntorn, Federation of Thai Industries iii Session 4. Competitiveness of the Industrial Sector (11): Industry Structure and Exports............ 55 Presenter: Sanjaya Lall, Oxford University 55 Thailand's Manufacturing Competitiveness 55 Presenter: Frauke Kraas, University of Bonn 58 Industrial Structure and Spatial Strategies for Industrial Competitiveness in Thailand 58 Discussant: Shinji Asanuma, Hitotubashi University 64 Discussant : Supavud Saicheua, Phatra Securities 66 Session 5. Removing Bottlenecks to Productivity (I): Infrastructure .............................................. 67 Presenter: Hans J. Peters, The World Bank 67 Thailand's Trade and Infrastructure 67 Discussant: Piyasvasti Amranand, National Energy Policy Office 69 Discussant: Praipol Koomsap, Thammasat University 70 Discussant: Kazuyuki Mori, JDB 7 1 Session 6. Removing Bottlenecks to Productivity (11): Labor Markets and Skills Development .. 73 Presenter: John Middleton, The World Bank 73 Skills for Competitiveness 73 Presenter: Robert Townsend, University of Chicago 76 Removing Financial Bottlenecks to Labor Productivity 76 Discussant: Rung Kaewdaeng, National Education Commission 79 Discussant: Ammar Siamwalla, TDRI 80 Discussant: Medhi KrongKaew, Thammasat University 80 Chairperson: Sippanondha Ketudat, NESDB 82 Concluding Comments....................................................................................................................... 83 Sippanondha Ketudat, NESDB 83 List of Abbreviations ...........................................................................................................................85 The Conference "Thailand's Dynamic Economic Recovery and Competitiveness" (Bangkok, May 20-21, 1998) was organized by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) with assistance from the World Bank and additional financial support from the Industrial Trade Promotion Fund and the Canadian International Development Agency. This conference was based on initial results from background work on competitiveness undertaken by Thai scholars and policy makers and the World Bank under a joint study project. The objective of the conference was to stimulate discussion on key structural reforms and policies for addressing the present crisis and to help d~:velop a medium-term strategy for improving Thailand's competitiveness over the next decade. By presenting strategy notes on key areas to decision makers in the public and private sectors, it helped focus the discussion on options for increasing Thailand's competitivenesis in the production and export of skill- and technology- intensive products. These areas include the macroeconomic framework, the financial sector, the industrial and export sectors at the firm and sectoral levels, infrastructure, and education. The conference was enriched by comments from discussants from Thailand as well as other East Asian countries who provided valuable lessons from their experience. The conference also benefited from the knowl~edgeable guidance of the chairpersons for individual sections. This publication makes the results of the joint study project and the discussioas of the conference accessible to a wider public. The main contributions are published, in two volumes: Volume I summarizes the conference proceedings, including welcoming reinarks by NESDB Secretary-General Wirat Wattanasiritham, the keynote speech by Depuly Prime Minister Supachai Panitchpakdi, as weH as experts' presentations and comments imade by discussants. Volume I1 contains background papers, including those prepared by scholars for the conference as well as three studies contributed by Thai researchers. We would like to thank all those who contributed to the study and who helped make the competitiveness conference a success. The study and the conference represent a joint effort that would not have been possible without input and support from many intlividuals from Thailand and the World Bank, including representatives from NESDB, the Thailand Development and Research Institute (TDRI), the Bank of Thailand, the Ministry of Commerce, and the World Bank's East Asia Region. We thank Kanit Sangsubhan and his team for patiently working with the Woirld Bank over many months to produce this publication, and the NESDB Board for supporting our endeavors. Many thanks are also due to the authors and their research assistants for providing the substance of the work on competitiveness and for their kind cooperation during the review process. We would also like to acknowledge support from senior World Bank staff, notably Javad Khalilzadeh-Shirazi and Francis X. Colago who have long recognized competitiveness as a critical issue, Jayasankar Shivakumar and Masahiro Kawai whose strong commitment for this project encouraged us to devote our time to preparing the confer1:nce and editing the studies, and, finally, Tom C. Tsui and his team who provided invaluable assistance from the World Bank headquarters in Washington. Please note that the respective authors are solely responsible for the contents of their papers. Opinions expressed in this publication are not intended to represent an official statement of NESDB or World Bank policy, but only serve to encourage a debate on policy options for assisting Thailand's economic recovery. The Editors Conference on Thailand's Dynamic Economic Recovery and Competitiveness Conference Program May 20,1998 Welcome Address: Wirat Wattanasiritham Keynote Speech: Supachai Panitchpakdi Session 1. Competitiveness and the Macroeconomic Framework Chair: Thammarak Karnpisit Francis X Colaqo: "Thailand's International Competitiveness: A Framework for Increased Productivity" Kanit Sangsubhan: "Thailand's Macroeconomic Framework and Competitiveness: Current Understanding and New Policy Considerations" Dominique Dwor- Frkcaut: "Thailand's Twin Crises: Export Competitiveness, Investment Efficiency and Financial Fragility" Peter G. Warr: "Thailand: What Went Wrong?" Discussants: Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Teerana Bhongmakapat Session 2. Restructuring the Financial System: Options Chair: Chavalit Thanachanan Somchai Ruechuphan (on behayof Pisit Leeahtam): "Financial Sector Reform" S. Ghon Rhee: "Thai Capital Markets: Challenges and Reforms" Bertrand Renaud: "How the Thai Real Estate Boom Undid Financial Institutions: What Can Be Done Now?" Discussants: Bernhard Eschweiler,
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