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Population Trends in Northern

Eric Guthrie PhD State Demographer

October 4, 2019 State Demographer

• Michigan’s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census

• Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non-profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census

• Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Subscribe to the Bureau’s Listserv for updates

• I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau

• The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics

• You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/MIDEPTTMB/subscriber/new

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Topics

• How populations change – Trends in the states’ population

• Local Trends – Population Trends – Age Structure – Migration – Fertility – Housing Units

• 2020 Census

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Population Change

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Population

10,100,000 10,055,315 10,050,000 9,995,915 10,000,000

9,950,000 9,952,450

9,900,000

9,850,000 9,877,535

9,800,000

9,750,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Historic and Projected Population

10,800,000 10,646,000 10,600,000 10,606,000 10,400,000 10,425,000

10,200,000 10,055,315 9,995,915 10,000,000 9,952,450

9,800,000 9,877,535

9,600,000

9,400,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. How Populations Change

• There are only three things that affect a population size over time: – Births – Deaths – Migration

Population2 =

Population1 + Births – Deaths + (In-migration – Out-migration) Natural Change Net Migration

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Population and Components of Change

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Age Structure

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Michigan Age Structure

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. National Fertility Rates and Births

Births General Fertility Rate 200 5,000,000 WWI Ends 1990 Recession

180 4,500,000 44 - 160 4,000,000 140 3,500,000 120 3,000,000 100 2,500,000

80 2,000,000 Total Births Total 60 1,500,000

40 1,000,000 WWII Ends Begins Births per 1,000 Women, 15 perBirths Women, 1,000 20 500,000

0 0

1939 1967 1995 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Source: NCHS Data Visualization Gallery, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/natality-trends/

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Projected Population Structure

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Regional Population Change

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Three County Population and Components of Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats; DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Charlevoix County Population and Components of Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats; DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Cheboygan County Population and Components of Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats; DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Emmet County Population and Components of Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats; DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Three County Migration Pattern

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Three County Projected Population Structure

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Charlevoix County Projected Population Structure

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Cheboygan County Projected Population Structure

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Emmet County Projected Population Structure

Source: DTMB, Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives, 2045 Population Projections

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Increasing Median Ages for Mothers

• Between 2003 and 2017 :

– Median age for mothers having a first child increased from 25 to 26.

– Median age for all mothers increased from 27 to 28 years

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates; Department of Health and Human Services

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Total Fertility Rates for Three County Region and State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Fertility Rates for Three County Region and the State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS Vital Stats

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Where to Get Projections Data from the State of Michigan

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Occupancy Status of Housing Units

Occupied Vacant 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Michigan Charlevoix Cheboygan Emmet Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Status of Vacant Housing Units

100% 90% Other vacant

80% For migrant workers 70% For seasonal, recreational, or 60% occasional use 50% Sold, not occupied 40% For sale only 30% 20% Rented, not occupied

10% For rent 0% Michigan Charlevoix Cheboygan Emmet Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Census 2020

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. 2020 Census

• Once a decade count of all residents – Required by the Constitution – Used in Redistricting – Forms the basis of all the demographic data produced by the federal government

• The next six months will see the ramp-up and execution of the Census – Partnership activities – Census offices – Complete Count Committees – Local hiring – Address canvasing

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Issues with the 2020 Census

• Citizenship question: – Bureau is not including a citizenship question on the 2020 Census.

• Internet response: – The Census Bureau is planning on the majority of response from the initial phase to be online. – The Census Bureau has spent the better part of the last decade building capacity to conduct this operation online and the recent end-to-end test in provided a final that the Bureau ready for 2020.

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. What to Expect Locally

• Local officials are recently examined the local geographic framework to suggest and necessary changes (tracts, block groups, and CDPs) • Partnership activities have been underway in the state since late 2018 – Primary goal are stakeholder engagement and to gain local commitment in forming complete count committees (CCC). – Census officials will be approaching city, county, and officials to form those committees. • Michigan Non-profit CCC https://becountedmi2020.com/ – Working with state and federal partners to leverage the resources of the non- profit community in support of the 2020 Census

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Census 2020 Michigan Nonprofits Count Campaign County Coverage

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. What to Expect Locally

• State has established a state CCC – You may see outreach in your from state agencies with which you interact. • Increased media buys to get the work out – The Census Bureau has hired Young & Rubicam to handle the communications portion of the Census 2020 operations. – MNA has already begun to roll out their media buys. • Address Canvasing is currently in process – Reduced address canvasing operation aided by in-office canvasing carried out in the middle part of the decade • Colleges will begin to be enumerated in February/March • Mailings will start showing up in mailboxes in March

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. What’s at Stake in the Census?

• Money? – Estimates range from 1,400 to 1,800 dollars are lost to the state for each person missed in the Census. – This is only looking at federal dollars allocated with Census statistics; it leaves out state and private dollars that also use population statistics to make distribution decisions. • The most important thing lost when a community is not fully enumerated is Voice. – It is impossible to advocate for a group if there is not data available to substantiate its value. – A group not represented in the official data has no voice.

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. What Will Likely Be Asked of You for the 2020 Census

• As with many things happening in our communities, many will come to you for help with understanding what is expected with the Census.

• Residents are going to come to your libraries for help with filling out the form. – Both with help accessing it online and with understanding what is being asked

• People are going to come to you with safety and data privacy concerns. – Fears about submitting data online – Is this really the census or a scam to get my data? – Unease about submitting data to the government (with or without the citizenship question)

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Summary of 2020 Census

• Very important to ensure proper resource allocation to communities • Some challenges and yet unknowns that are making this Census particularly challenging • Lots of groups are beginning to come online to promote and assist with getting out the message about the Census • Libraries will likely be asked to help, but the work being requested should not be overwhelming – Assistance getting online – Very general questions – Reassurance of safety

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Questions?

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE. Eric A. Guthrie, PhD State Demographer Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Victor Office Building 201 N. Square 5th Floor Lansing, MI 48913 (517) 241-8667 [email protected]

HELP. CONNECT. SOLVE.