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INOX LEISURE Setting the Screen Ablaze

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INOX LEISURE Setting the Screen Ablaze INITIATING COVERAGE INOX LEISURE Setting the screen ablaze India Equity Research| Media Inox Leisure (INOX), India’s second-largest multiplex operator, is an EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS attractive play owing to its aggressive expansion plans, premiumisation, Absolute Rating BUY and ramp-up of margin-accretive ad and F&B revenues, not to mention the closing gap with market leader PVR. With a healthy balance sheet and Rating Relative to Sector Outperform Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium negative working capital, the company is well placed to expand. We Sector Relative to Market Overweight estimate INOX would clock CAGRs of 19% in revenue and 35% in EPS over FY19–21, and are initiating coverage on the stock with a ‘BUY’ at a PE of 20x (33% discount to PVR) December 2020E EPS (ex-IND AS 116), which MARKET DATA (R: INOL.BO, B: INOL IN) yields a target price of INR475. CMP : INR 334 Target Price : INR 475 Blockbuster prospects: Low penetration, robust expansion 52-week range (INR) : 382 / 189 Share in issue (mn) : 102.9 Given the low multiplex screen penetration in India – 8 per million against 37 in China M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 34 / 482 – multiplexes account for only about 30% of the screen count (25% in CY15), implying Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 246.2 ample scope for expansion. Moreover, a robust content pipeline (India produces the highest number of movies in the world), rapid urbanisation, and the ongoing shift SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) from unroganised to organised retail provide strong tailwinds to the multiplex industry. Current Q4FY19 Q3FY19 We expect INOX to add 80 screens each in FY20 and FY21 (574 in FY19). The Promoters * 51.9 51.9 51.9 company’s low gearing implies ample firepower for its expansion plans. MF's, FI's & BK’s 19.5 19.5 21.0 Higher-margin businesses likely to grow faster FII's 12.2 12.2 12.1 Others 16.4 16.4 15.1 F&B and advertisement revenue streams deliver superior margins and are likely to * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) outgrow net box office revenue. F&B contributes 26% to revenue, yielding a gross margin of 72–75%. Ad revenue, which makes up 10% of total revenue, too generates a superior margin of 85–90%. We estimate revenue CAGRs of 26% in F&B and 18% in ad RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock over over FY19–21E would drive margin growth. Moreover, we expect a profitable scale-up Sensex Stock Sensex of the premium format (from 4% in FY17 to about 9% in FY19) going ahead. 1 month 2.8 8.4 5.6 Outlook and valuation: Bright prospects; initiate with ‘BUY’ 3 months (1.6) 5.2 6.7 12 months 9.8 50.6 40.9 We estimate INOX would clock revenue, EBITDA and EPS CAGRs of about 19%, 24% and 35%, respectively, over FY19–21 underpinned by: i) aggressive expansion; ii) uptick in F&B and ad revenues; and iii) ramp-up of premium formats. Key risks: i) slower commercial real-estate development; and ii) shrinking time windows between theatrical and digital releases. We value the stock at 20x (33% discount to PVR) December 2020E EPS (ex of IND AS 116 impact), which yields a TP of INR475. Currently, the stock trades at ~16x/13x FY20/FY21E EPS (ex-IND AS 116 adjustment). Financials Year to March FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Abneesh Roy Revenues (INR mn) 13,481 16,922 20,831 24,127 +91 22 6620 3141 (Click on image [email protected] to view video) EBITDA (INR mn) 2,104 3,092 6,508 7,641 Adjusted Profit (INR mn) 1,263 1,393 1,470 1,848 Prateek Barsagade Adjusted Diluted EPS (INR) 13.7 13.6 14.3 18.0 +91 22 4063 5407 [email protected] Diluted P/E (x) 24.3 24.6 23.3 18.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.8 11.4 8.8 7.5 ROAE (%) 20.7 17.1 17.0 21.5 October 16, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Story in charts Chart 1: Eyeing cross 700-screen milestone by FY21 Chart 2: Revenue growth momentum to sustain 900 25,000 720 20,000 540 15,000 (No.) 360 mn) (INR 10,000 180 5,000 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E No. of screens Net revenues Chart 3: F&B and ad revenue growth to drive margins Chart 4: EBITDA growth to transpire with margin expansion 100% 5,000 20.0 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 80% 4,000 16.0 23% 23% 26% 27% 29% 60% 3,000 12.0 40% (%) (INR mn) (INR 2,000 8.0 20% 1,000 4.0 0% FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E 0 0.0 FY17 FY19 Net Box office collection Net Food & Beverages FY18 FY20E FY21E Advertising revenue Other operating revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Chart 5: Secular growth to translate in robust earnings Chart 6: Returns profile to improve going ahead 3,000 30.0 2,400 24.0 18.0 1,800 (%) 12.0 (INR mn) (INR 1,200 6.0 600 0.0 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Return on Average Equity (ROAE) (%) PAT Pre-tax Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (%) Source: Edelweiss research 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Inox Leisure Executive Summary Highly under-penetrated industry implies huge untapped opportunity India has more than 9,500 multiplex screens with only 30% (25% in CY15) being multiplexes; balance 70% are fragmented single screens. This implies huge untapped opportunity. The market share of multiplexes has been on the rise over the years and we expect this trend to gather further steam over the coming years. In this backdrop, we are positive on INOX’s plan to ramp up screen count going ahead. Ample firepower to expand screen count INOX set an industry record in FY19 by opening the highest number of screens in a year—85. We expect the company to add about 80 screens each in FY20 and FY21, in spite of setbacks “We are looking for aggressive due to competition, real estate challenges and regulatory delays. Nevertheless, compared growth – both organic and with competitors, the company has a strong balance sheet, which implies ample firepower inorganic – and are always open to boost the screen count organically as well as inorganically. We estimate INOX would for acquisitions.” increase its screen count by about 28% by FY21–from 574 in FY19 to 734 by FY21. Siddharth Jain Superior margin segments on a roll; more cheer in store Director The company’s efforts to revamp food menus, diversify offerings, bundle F&B products with online ticket sales, among others, have paid rich dividends. We expect INOX’s SPH to post ~9% CAGR over FY19–21E with 12% footfall CAGR enabling net F&B revenue to jump ~26% over FY19-21. With the multiplex industry gaining steam and deepening penetration across India, it is becoming a steady advertisement avenue for advertisers. INOX’s ad revenue shot up about 27% YoY, accounting for ~10% of total FY19 net revenue. Considering the company’s growing presence, we expect its ad revenue to increase at a CAGR of ~18% over FY19-21 riding benefits derived from scale-up increasing the ad revenue per screen. Catalysts in place for blockbuster profitability Factoring the broad-based revenue growth across segments, aggressive screen expansion plan and benefits from the anticipated increase in scale, we estimate INOX’s revenue, EBITDA and PAT to clock 19%, 24% and 35% CAGR over FY19–21, implying 35% EPS CAGR. Given the favourable business dynamics and our robust estimates for the business, we expect INOX to post 25% ROCE and 20% RoE each in FY20E and FY21E, respectively. “Watching a movie is in the DNA of all of us. We Indians, we love our movies and that will never go out Outlook and valuation: Closing the gap with biggest rival of style.” We envisage INOX to emerge as a dominant force in the multiplex space over the medium term owing to strong management, aggressive expansion plans, focus on high-margin Alok Tandon segments and unwavering efforts to enhance customer experience. Chief Executive Officer We value the stock at 20x (~33% discount to PVR) December 2020E EPS (ex of IND AS 116 impact), which yields a TP of INR475. The stock is trading at ~16/13x FY20/FY21E EPS, which is at a significant discount to PVR (trading at ~32/25x FY20/21E EPS). In the current scenario, while we are seeing slowdown pan across the consumption sector, strong box office collections and content response to enable multiplex chains such as INOX to outshine. Hence, we are assigning a higher multiple relative to most companies in our media coverage, though at a discount to PVR. 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Media Key risks Competition from other multiplex chains such as PVR, Cinepolis, small-scale multiplex operators and single screens remains a concern. Besides, the advent of digital release on OTT platforms, not to mention their affordable pricing and shortening time windows from theatrical releases, poses a reasonable threat. That said, quality content is the primary driver of footfalls at multiplexes. However, mediocre or inferior quality content could hurt footfalls. Any extended supply of below-average content could hurt INOX’s revenue and bottom line. An overall weak macroeconomy could lead to muted growth in the commercial property market, impacting mall development and, hence, screen openings.
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