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New Zealand’s land : state and trend

Susan Walker and Adrian Monks Landcare Research, Dunedin

Wild Things EDS Conference, Auckland August 12–13 2015 Thanks

The Ornithological Society of Atlases of Distribution in New Zealand

1970s “Atlas 1” 1999–2004 “Atlas 2”

http://www.osnz.org.nz/ Thanks

Photos John Hunt James Reardon Rachel McLennan Neil Fitzgerald Tim Rumble John Leathwick Craig McKenzie

Comments Bill Lee John Innes Barbara Anderson David Barrell Cilla Wehi Mainland land bird taxa Original MAINLAND land bird taxa 140

© Rachel McLennan Mainland land bird taxa “Extant” 96

Extinct 44

© Rachel McLennan MAINLAND land bird taxa

“Extant” 96

Extinct 44

Extinct (slide 1) post-Polynesian, post-European MAINLAND land bird taxa

“Extant” 96

Extinct 44

Extinct (slide 2) post-Polynesian, post-European Also gone or too rare “Extant”

TOO RARE ON THE MAINLAND TO MODEL Also gone or too rare

16

TOO RARE ON THE MAINLAND TO MODEL TOO RARE ON THE MAINLAND TO MODEL ON THE MAINLAND TO RARE TOO 16 Also gone or too rare too or Also gone 9

Northern 9 Southern New Zealand dotterel Few not threatened 26 Remaining forest birds ` 20 ‘TAXA’ MODELLED Kiwi (all) Kākā (NI,SI) (NI,SI) Mōhua Brown creeper Kererū Bellbird Tūi (NI,SI) Robin (NI,SI,StI) (all) Yellow-crowned parakeet Long-tailed cuckoo Shining cuckoo Fantail (NI,SI) Morepork Remaining forest birds ` 20 ‘TAXA’ MODELLED Kiwi (all) Blue duck FAMILY- Kākā (NI,SI) level Rifleman (NI,SI) endemics Kōkako Whitehead SUB- Mōhua FAMILY Brown creeper endemics Kererū Bellbird GENUS Tūi level Tomtit (NI,SI) endemics Robin (NI,SI,StI) Weka (all) Yellow-crowned parakeet SPECIES Long-tailed cuckoo level Shining cuckoo endemics Grey warbler Fantail (NI,SI) Morepork NATIVE Local richness of remaining forest birds

Number of forest bird taxa per 10 × 10 km grid square

Change 1970s early 2000s in number of taxa RICHNESS CHANGE High Gain

Low Loss Greatest decrease in forests

Number of forest bird taxa per 10 × 10 km grid square

North Island

8

7

6

5 Number of forest bird taxa per per square taxa bird Number of forest 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100

% Indigenous forest cover (early 2000s) Which birds?

Irreplaceability-vulnerability

Predictors of loss • Deep (family-level) endemics • Already absent from deforested landscapes • Already rare Deep endemics going faster

Number of forest bird taxa per 10 × 10 km grid square that are endemic at the family level (deepest endemism) (Kiwi, Blue duck, Rifleman, Kākā, Kōkako)

North Island South Island 1.4

1.0

ENDEMIC -

0.6

0.2

forest bird taxa per per square taxa bird forest Number Number of FAMILY

20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100

% Indigenous forest cover (early 2000s) The rare became rarer

North Island South + Stewart Islands Gain Shining Yc parakeet 0.2 Grey Grey Brown Robin cuckoo Shining cuckoo warbler Robin warbler creeper Bellbird Whitehead Bellbird Kereru Fantail Kiwi Fantail Tomtit Morepork Tui Morepork Yc parakeet Tomtit Kereru Long-tailed cuckoo Rifleman -0.2 Long-tailed cuckoo Kaka Mohua Weka Loss -0.4 Kiwi Kaka Weka -0.6 Rifleman

-0.8 Kokako Blue duck -1.0 Blue duck COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (1970s) The rare became rarer

North Island South + Stewart Islands Gain

Shining Robin Yc parakeet 0.2 cuckoo Robin Grey Brown Grey Bellbird warbler creeper Shining cuckoo warbler Tui Whitehead Fantail Kiwi Fantail Kereru Tomtit Morepork Bellbird Tui Morepork Yc parakeet Tomtit Kereru Long-tailed cuckoo Rifleman -0.2 Long-tailed cuckoo Kaka Mohua Weka Loss -0.4 Kiwi Weka Kaka -0.6 Rifleman

-0.8 Kokako Blue duck -1.0 Blue duck COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (2000s) CHANGE

Gain

Loss CHANGE

Gain

Loss

© Tim Rumble CHANGE

Gain

Loss

© John Leathwick Remaining waders, terns and gulls (Order )

13 ‘TAXA’ MODELLED Banded dotterel New Zealand dotterel (NI,SI) Wrybill

South island pied oystercatcher Variable oystercatcher

Black stilt Pied stilt

Black-fronted tern Caspian tern White-fronted tern

Black-billed gull Red-billed gull Black-backed gull Local richness of remaining waders, terns and gulls

Number of taxa per 10 × 10 km grid square Change 1970s Early 2000s in number of taxa RICHNESS High

Low

CHANGE

Gain

Loss Significant decreases inland

especially South Island, … but also North Island

Change North Island South + Stewart Islands in number of taxa

3

2

1 gull taxa per per square taxa gull

Number of wader, tern andtern Number of wader, CHANGE

Gain COAST INLAND COAST INLAND Distance from coast Loss Which birds? Predictors of loss • Endemic • Inland-breeding Banded dotterel New Zealand dotterel (NI,SI) Wrybill

South island pied oystercatcher Variable oystercatcher

Black stilt Pied stilt

Black-fronted tern Caspian tern White-fronted tern

Black-billed gull Red-billed gull Black-backed gull On the coast Many coastal-breeders increased

North Island South + Stewart Islands

Variable oystercatcher 0.4 Variable oystercatcher Gain Black-fronted tern White-fronted tern 0.2 Caspian tern South Island Caspian tern Wrybill Red-billed gull pied oystercatcher White-fronted tern New Zealand dotterel Red-billed gull Southern black- Pied stilt South Island pied oystercatcher Black-billed gull backed gull Southern black- Pied stilt Banded dotterel Wrybill backed gull Banded dotterel Black-billed gull -0.2 Black stilt Loss -0.4 New Zealand dotterel

COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (1970s)

© Craig McKenzie On the coast Many coastal-breeders increased

North Island South + Stewart Islands

Variable oystercatcher 0.4 Gain Variable oystercatcher Black-fronted tern White-fronted tern 0.2 Caspian tern South Island Caspian tern Wrybill Red-billed gull pied oystercatcher White-fronted tern New Zealand dotterel Red-billed gull Southern black- Pied stilt South Island pied oystercatcher Black-billed gull backed gull Southern black- Pied stilt Banded dotterel Wrybill backed gull Banded dotterel Black-billed gull -0.2 Black stilt Loss -0.4 New Zealand dotterel

COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (2000s)

© Craig McKenzie Inland Loss of inland breeders

North Island South Island

0.4 Gain 0.2

Southern black- Black- Caspian tern Pied stilt backed gull fronted tern Black stilt Southern black- Red-billed gull Wrybill backed gull Banded dotterel Caspian tern -0.2 South Island pied Red-billed gull Wrybill Pied stilt Loss Black-billed gull oystercatcher Black-billed gull Banded dotterel -0.4 South Island pied oystercatcher

COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (1970s)

© Craig McKenzie Inland Loss of inland breeders

North Island South Island

0.4 Gain 0.2

Southern black- Caspian tern Black- backed gull Pied stilt fronted tern Black stilt Southern black- Red-billed gull Wrybill backed gull Banded dotterel -0.2 Caspian tern Red-billed gull Wrybill South Island pied Pied stilt Loss Black-billed gull oystercatcher Black-billed gull Banded dotterel -0.4 South Island pied oystercatcher

COMMON RARE COMMON RARE Rarity (2000s)

© Craig McKenzie Conclusions

Rapid loss of endemic birds continues on the mainland The most significant avian biodiversity loss is in forests and inland basins, far from cities A new scale of operational conservation will be needed to slow it