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Peter Garretson Sky’s No Limit SKY’S NO LIMIT: SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER, THE NEXT MAJOR STEP IN THE INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP? Peter A. Garretson Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave Rao Tula Ram Marg, New Delhi – 110 010. 1 Peter A. Garretson ** DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States government, or any subsidiary department or organisation, the Republic of India, CFR or IDSA. ISBN : 81-86019-71-5 First Published: August 2010 Price : Rs 299/- Published by: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in Printed at: A.M. Offsetters A-57, Sector-10, Noida-201 301 (U.P.) Tel.: 91-120-4320403 Mob.: 09810888667 E-mail : [email protected] 2 Sky’s No Limit CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................5 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................8 INTRODUCTION .................................................................9 BACKGROUND ................................................................. 11 A POLICYMAKER’’’ S INTRODUCTION TO .......................... 17 SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER AN EVALUATION OF SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER ........ 27 IN THE CONTEXT OF CURRENT IMPORTANT PROBLEMS ON THE POLICYMAKER’’’ S AGENDA IS TRUE COOPERATION ON STRATEGIC ......................... 64 TECHNOLOGIES POSSIBLE? A DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF ............................. 73 VARIOUS RESPONSIBLE AGENCIES AND STAKEHOLDERS; OF VARIOUS MODELS FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATON, SPACE,,, ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROPOSED MODEL FOR HOW POLICYMAKERS.............. 76 MIGHT STRUCTURE A BILATERAL SPACE SOLAR POWER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 3 Peter A. Garretson CONCLUSION .................................................................. 82 APPENDIX A .................................................................... 88 A DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF VARIOUS RESPONSIBLE AGENCIES AND STAK EHOLDER S US GOVERNMENT STAKEHOLDERS .............................. 100 JOINT ORGANS ............................................................. 113 INTERNATIONAL STAKEHOLDERS .................................. 115 NON-GOVERNMENT STAKEHOLDERS ........................... 116 APPENDIX B .................................................................. 121 A DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF VARIOUS MODELS FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, SPACE, ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE APPENDIX C .................................................................. 151 VARIOUS FIGURES ON COSTS APPENDIX D.................................................................. 155 PROPOSED JOINT STATEMENT APPENDIX E .................................................................. 156 SUMMARY OF KINGDON’S THEORY OF AGENDA SETTING AND POLICYMAKING APPENDIX F .................................................................. 160 LIST OF INTERVIEWS AND INTERACTIVE SESSIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY .............................................................. 164 ABOUT THE AUTHOR ................................................... 172 4 Sky’s No Limit ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Author would like to thank his hosts at IDSA, his sponsors at CFR, his family and friends, and those who were particularly supportive in this project. I would like to thank in particular my sponsors, both the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), as well as the support of the US Embassy New Delhi, the Air Force Fellows Program, and Air Force International Affairs for their administrative support. In particular, at CFR, I would like to thank Ms. L. Camille Massey and my other interviewers Mr. Carl J. Green and Dr. Edward L. Morse, as well as Victoria Alekhine and Elizabeth Mathai who administered the programme, and always provided me with, prompt, excellent support. I would also like to thank Ambassador David C. Mulford who’s direct engagement ensured the important support of the Embassy. At IDSA, I would like to particularly thank Director General Sisodia, Dr. Arvind Gupta, and Dr. Shanthie D’Souza, who accepted my application and made the necessary arrangements through MOD and MEA, as well as visiting fellow Col Pillay who also had a hand in this. I also must thank Mr. Gopal Bhushan, Mr. Devi Prasad Karnik at the Indian Embassy in DC, and Dr. V.K. Saraswat for smoothing the way for my Visa and attachment. Administratively, I am particularly indebted to Col Stewart Kowall, the Air Attaché for approaching my proposed host institutions directly, to CWO3 Sheila Horgan for providing important advance information and set up, and to Col Frank Rindone, the Defense Attaché for finding an appropriate way to attach me to the Embassy so that my family had access to medical care and schooling, and to Col Rick White, the follow- on Defense Attaché for his continued support. The entire DAO FSN Staff also deserves a special thanks for their superb and prompt service, particularly Sunil Bablani, Bhanu Pratap, and Naveen Rawat. And to Gary and Mary-Lou Burnham, who were the best social sponsors imaginable, and Janet Kowall and Susan Castonguay, who helped us know what to expect. Also Ms. Hyla Pearson at AETC—one could not ask for a more responsive public affairs officer. Also at the Embassy, a special thanks goes to Mr. Eric Jones, and Ms. Heather Broman who provided much insight with respect India’s energy and science establishments. 5 Peter A. Garretson I wish also to thank those who took time to help me when nobody knew who should be managing the fellowship. In particular, Maj Susan Airola-Skully, in AF/A1DLE for her tolerance and assistance, my assignment team for releasing me, Lt Col Steve Hughes in SAF/IAPA who took it on himself to find out how to get me and my family support and was a champion, and Mr. Luke D. Whitney at AETC who took initiative and sent the request message for attachment to the Embassy when time was getting short. Also Ms. Betty Chatteau at the DoD passport office, who stayed far after business hours near Christmas vacation to help us get our passports and visas on short notice. The folks above made the “consecutive series of miracles” happen. I would also like to thank those who wrote letters on my behalf both to CFR and to the Indian Government that ensured such outstanding reception and access, as well as provided key personal and career advice. My first thank you is to Ambassadors Jim and Lauren Moriarty, and LTC Larry and Jackie Smith for providing so many useful leads and introductions, and to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for hosting two well-timed networking events. In particular, I owe a debt of gratitude to Dr. Ashley Tellis, Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Mr. Joe McDade, Ms. Mitzi Wertheim, Mr. John Mankins, Mr. Joe Burris, Mr. Matt Simmons, and to Mr. Joseph D. Rouge, SES, Director National Security Space Office (NSSO), Gen Mark F. Ramsay, Director, Air Force Strategic Planning, Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Plans and Programs, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, Dr. Ken Watman, SES, then Deputy Air Force Strategic Planning, and Lt. Gen. Paul J. Selva, Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Mr. A. Volkman, Director, International Cooperation, OSD/AT&L for writing on my behalf. And the support of the latter would also not have been possible without the pro-active intercession of Col Steve Hiss, Lt Col Brad Kinneer, and Col Steve Rust. The support of my fellow caballeros also made this possible. Without Col Mike “Green Hornet” Hornitschek, I would not even have known about the CFR program. Without Lt Col Paul Damphousse’s help, I would not have had critical meetings with Mr. Rouge or with Dr. Saraswat, and he has continued the good SBSP advocacy in the US, even as Col “Coyote” Smith takes it to Europe. I also want to thank all my colleagues at IDSA, especially my cluster, for the education and stimulation they provided, particularly Dr. Namrata Goswami, Zakir Hussain, Faizan S. M. Ahmed who spent so much time educating me about the greater context of India. 6 Sky’s No Limit Thanks also those who participated in my Fellows Presentation on 23 October 2009, particularly my Chair, Air Commodore (Ret) Jasjit Singh, and my discussants, Dr. V. Siddhartha and Colonel Subodh Kumar. I am also grateful to the wonderful military and defense minds at IDSA who engaged me in their thinking, including Dr. Thomas Mathew, Dr. G. Balachandran (accurately described as a “minefield of knowledge”), Col DPK Pillay, Col Raj Shukla, Col Harinder Singh, Col Ali Ahmed, Capt Alok Bansal, Col Gautam, Wg Cdr Ajey Lele, and particularly Wg Cdr Venkatashmy Krishnappa, one of the finest strategic minds and most insightful thinkers I have come across in my entire career. I must also mention the wonderful support of my family, Darlene, Marcus, Madeleine, and Alyssa that accepted a short notice and stressful move to a distant land, immediately following the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attacks with less than certain information, and endured my lack of presence in their lives for significant periods of time, and to my parents, Peter and Jerri, that provided such wonderful support from back home. Of course, I owe a particular inspirational thanks to Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, former President of India for his vision for a Global Space 2050, as well as that of Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, founder of the Indian space programme
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