Real Estate Market Overview Annual Review
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Research & Forecast Report Latvia | Lithuania | Estonia 2017 Real Estate Market Overview Annual Review Accelerating success. Real Estate is a location business. That’s why we do business where you do business. When you partner with Colliers professionals, you tap into an integrated team of experts. Together, we offer insight from 554 world markets, eight service lines and countless specializations, all with a common goal - accelerating your success. Contents LATVIA MARKET OVERVIEW 4 Economic Overview 5 Investment Market 6 Office Market 8 Retail Market 12 Industrial Market 16 Hotel Market 20 Legal Overview 23 Tax Summary 27 LITHUANIA MARKET OVERVIEW 29 Economic Overview 30 Investment Market 31 Office Market 33 Retail Market 37 Industrial Market 41 Hotel Market 44 Legal Overview 47 Tax Summary 51 ESTONIA MARKET OVERVIEW 53 Economic Overview 54 Investment Market 55 Office Market 58 Retail Market 62 Industrial Market 66 Hotel Market 70 Legal Overview 74 Tax Summary 78 Real Estate Market Overview | 2017 | Colliers International | Sorainen | Ernst & Young 3 Latvia Market Overview Dear Reader, We are delighted to present the Colliers International Real Estate Market Review for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, wherein you will find much useful information about market trends and forecasts, the latest statistics and market insights. We are grateful to our partners - Sorainen and EY - for contributing to preparation of our Deniss Kairans real estate legal and tax reviews. Partner | Managing Director It was an interesting year in the region, with activity staying high in most segments. Investment volumes for [email protected] the 2nd year in a row reached more than EUR 1 billion of investments in commercial real estate in the Baltic capital cities. Pan Baltic investors made the biggest volume of all the transactions, although the trend of new investors entering the region continued last year. The markets continued to show a yield compression for core properties, although even with yields below 7% Baltic capital cities can provide greater returns compared to what is happening in Northern Europe or the CEE region overall. 2017 remains promising. Development activity continues in Estonia and Lithuania and is restarting in Latvia. Riga is lagging behind, with new development happening at a slower pace, although the pipeline of potential new projects is beginning to look promising and realistic. The market is expecting to see the start of construction of the first IKEA store in Riga and new developments in the shape of SC ALFA and SC AKROPOLE RIGA. The commissioning of Place Eleven, developed by Hanner, will clearly indicate possibilities for developers in the office market. Last but not least VGP, one of the biggest Eastern European developers, will finalize new industrial park construction close to Riga in 2017. Forecasts for all three Baltic States stay positive and we look forward to cooperating and serving your needs in the region. Sincerely, Deniss Kairans Economic Overview Tendencies and Forecasts > According to available forecasts, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.9%, which will be triggered by EU funding injection and Summary household consumption. > Inflation is expected to reach approx 2.5%, driven by energy In 2016, economic growth experienced a slowdown compared to and food prices. the previous year’s figures. Similarly to previous years, growth was mainly driven by household consumption, while disruption of > Unemployment is expected to experience a further decline EU funding availability served as a limiting factor, holding down with increasing pressure in terms of shortage of skilled labour gross fixed capital formation. availability. According to the latest available estimates, Latvian real GDP > In the context of positive economic development and decrease growth in 2016 amounted to 1.6%. Among the most successful in unemployment, wages are likely to continue increasing, real economy sectors in terms of average y-o-y quarterly growth although at a slower pace compared to previous years. At the in Q1 - Q3 2016 were the accommodation and food service end of the day, wage increases are expected to exceed inflation, sectors (average 8.1% growth), taxes on products (average 6.2% leading to a further improvement in purchasing power. growth) and the information and communication sector (average 5% growth). Despite impressive growth in the majority of real economy sectors, the construction sector experienced a 20% average decline. The year concluded with inflation close to zero per cent for the second year in a row. However, housing and utility costs, as well as transport price inflation decrease, outweighed growth in food and alcoholic beverage prices. By the end of the year, unemployment remained practically unchanged compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, more and more enterprises are experiencing lack of skilled personnel, which continues to materialize in the shape of wage increases, although at a slower pace compared to 2014 and 2015. Still, almost zero per cent inflation has led to positive development of real wages, indicating a further increase in population purchasing power. During 2016, the market faced an increase of credit issuing activity by the banking sector. More accessible leverage opportunities in conjunction with a low interest rate environment had a positive impact on economic development. Key Economic Indicators of Latvia 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016 2017F GDP Current Prices, EUR billion 22.6 24.3 18.8 17.9 20.2 21.8 22.8 23.6 24.3 24.8 26.3 GDP Growth (Real), % yoy 9.9 -3.6 -14.3 -3.8 6.2 4.0 2.9 2.1 2.7 1.6 2.9 Industrial Production, % yoy 0.3 -3.4 -20.3 16.6 11.7 9.3 0.1 -0.3 4.3 3.5 4.5 Unemployment Rate, % avg 6.1 7.7 17.5 19.5 16.2 15.0 11.9 10.8 9.9 9.7 8.5 Growth of Average Monthly Gross Wages, % yoy 31.5 20.5 -3.9 -3.5 4.4 3.7 4.6 6.8 6.8 5.1 4.8 Total Central Government Debt, % of GDP 11.8 22.7 39.9 48.3 42.4 40.4 38 40.2 36.3 40.0 38.3 HICP avg., % yoy 10.0 15.3 3.3 -1.2 4.2 2.3 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.6 CPI, % yoy 10.1 15.4 3.5 -1.1 4.4 2.3 0 0.6 0.2 0.1 2.5 Fiscal Deficit, % of GDP -0.7 -4.1 -9.1 -8.5 -3.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.3 Export, EUR billion 8.7 9.6 8.0 9.6 11.7 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 Import, EUR billion 13.0 12.8 8.3 9.9 12.7 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 15.2 16.1 Current Account, % of GDP -20.8 -12.4 7.8 2.0 -3.2 -3.6 -2.7 -2.0 -0.8 0.9 -1.5 FDI, EUR billion 1.70 0.86 0.07 0.29 1.05 0.86 0.68 0.59 0.60 -0.10 0.35 f - forecast Source: Central Statistical Bureau, SEB, Swedbank Real Estate Market Overview | 2017 | Latvia | Colliers International 5 In 2016, the Latvian real estate investment market saw only one new name of a global private equity firm - Lone Star Investment Market Funds, responsible for the acquisition of SC Riga Plaza. Among existing market players, EfTEN Capital, New Hanza Capital and New Horizon Capital were the most active, with 24% of total General Overview annual investment volume generated by their acquisitions. The market also saw increasing activity by local private investors, > During 2016, Latvian real estate investment market activity mainly aiming at EUR 1 - 4 million transactions, with separate resulted in EUR 341.3 million investment volume. transactions above EUR 10 million. > Investment in the retail segment was the main driver of Although interest in the country increases, the number of investment activity. available high-grade properties is declining along with yields, so > Demand for potential investment targets was high, but a that investors are becoming more careful when considering new shortage of attractive cash flow investment opportunities acquisitions. served as a limit. Additionally, activity from end-users continued in 2016. > Improvement in the investment climate contributed to further Transactions with properties acquired for own business or yield compression in all commercial property segments. occupation needs provided an additional EUR 30 million to the transaction volumes mentioned above. While still significant, this Investment Volumes number is much lower compared to EUR 120 million in 2015. In 2016, the Latvian real estate investment market continued to Dynamics of Investment Volume in Latvia be active. The year closed with a total investment volume of EUR 341.3* million, compared to EUR 394.4 million in 2015. The retail 450 Million EUR sector continued to dominate the investment horizon with 53% 360 of investment volume driven by acquisitions of three shopping centres, namely Riga Plaza, Domina Shopping and Galerija Azur. 270 180 During 2016, 64% of total investment volume was generated by transactions exceeding EUR 20 million in size. Despite large 90 total volumes, investment transactions below EUR 3 million 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 still constitute 72% of transaction numbers. At the same time, these transactions generate only 12% of total annual investment Source: Colliers International volume. Recent market activity has shown that local Baltic investors are becoming more active and better capitalised. Among Baltic Investment Properties investors in Latvia, Estonians are the most active, followed by During 2016, division of investment volume between the main domestic investors.