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A Sick Man of Europe

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A Sick Man of Europe March 16, 1979 , -----, -----, -- A Sick M an of Europe il""---="'\j A century ago, Turkey was lithe sick were in fashion. So Turkey's gains from man of Europe." The Ottoman Empire growth went largely into government was falling apart, and other nations enterprises - factories, steel mills, were gathering to share the spoils - farm price supports - which failed in particular, Austria (backed by Ger­ to break even. A couple of bad har­ many) and Russia (backed by France). vests combined with recession after The eventual result of their rivalry was the Korean War, and Turkey was in World War I. trouble. The Government turned to deficit finance and the printing press Today Turkey is again one of Europe's to hold down the unemployment rate. sick men. The economy is beset by in­ It also had to reschedule foreign debts flation. International debts cannot be contracted during the boom. Economic serviced without additional aid. There and pol itical problems mounted, lead­ is unrest in the principal cities, and ing to a brief military dictatorship. even talk of Turkey developing into Order and stability were restored in the another Iran. early 1960's, largely by stepped-up exports of labor to Western Europe. If we look at crude GN P growth fig­ ures, Turkey's are almost as impressive as were Iran's or Cuba's before those (The need for speed perceived by the countries' revolutions - and well Turks in discarding the agricultural­ ahead of our own recent growth. development model is, however, However, much of Turkish growth is easily understood. Population yvas _ based on heavy infusions of credit for rising from 2.5 percent to 3 percent imported raw materials and capital per year. At the same time, the pop­ goods, and it is accompanied by ac­ ulation was moving from the country celerating inflation - approximately to the cities. The largest Turkish city 50 percent in 1978. Unemployment of Istanbul, formerly Constantinople, is very high, and is kept from rising was doubling in size every 7 years, even faster only by exports of man­ and is now over 4 million! We know power to Western Europe and by what such urbanization requires in overmanning of a wide variety of employment, housing, public services, government enterprises in Turkey's and keeping the peace.) mixed economy. But the decade of the 1960's was a Lessonin history good one for Turkey. Growth was A little economic history may explain again high and stable, even though matters. Turkey enjoyed stable growth much of the production was unprofit­ in the early 1950's, which might have able,or required tariff protection to be continued. Sma", however, was not salable. Remittances from Turkish Beautiful in those days. Turkish growth workers abroad helped finance high was predominantly agricultural at a growth while keeping Turkey's inter­ time when factories and steel mills national payments in balance. (continued on page 2) JE1 Jk(Q)IT § c&dltIF i f CC11 (G) Opinions expressed in this newsletter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federai Reserve Bank of San Francisco, nor of the Board of Governors of the Federal ReServeSystem. Then came the oil shock of 1973,fol­ tary gro'Jvth wou ld force the govern­ lowed by the economic slow-down in ment and its auxil iaries to balance Western Europe. The oil shock itself their budgets at high costs in "vote­ raised Turkish energy costs, since the fare" if not also in welfare. country has few oil resources. The European slow-down reduced oppor­ Enter now Wall Street. The big inter­ tunities for Turkish workers abroad. national banks, not exclusively Ameri­ These two forces taken together unbal­ can, were getti ng deposits of recycled anced Turkey's international accounts. petro-dollars from the OPEC countries When the Turkish Government turned of the Middle East, on which they had again to deficits and inflation to keep contracted to pay interest. Payment of up domestic employment, the workers interest on petro-dollar deposits abroad reduced thei r rem ittances sti II required new loans. When the Turks more, preferri ng rationally to keep and other developing countries, fearing their savings in German marks, Austri­ I M F "governessing", turned to Wall an schillings, or Swiss francs rather Street, the latter was willing and able than Turkish liras. to grant short-term credit without an­ noying conditions of the I M F type. Fundsfrom abroad Countries in such difficulties often ap­ (Why, you may ask, did proverbially ply to the International Monetary Fund tight-fisted bankers treat the Turkish (lM F) for assistance. The I MF usually Government, or New York City, so makes its aid conditional. The I MF much more leniently than they would conditions usually include devaluing have treated Joe's Shoeshine Parlor in the domestic currency, balancing the similar circumstances? Partly, the risk­ government budget, lowering the iness of such loans made them more growth rate of the money supply, and profitable. More important, the banks requiring public enterprises to pay may have felt that something would thei r own way. turn up if loans of this type went sour. By "going sour" we mean falling due, Turkey, however, did not want to with no funds for repayment of either "put its house in order" by such strin­ principal or interest.) gent conditions. The public enterpris­ es, in particular, were being used to Nonetheless, in 1 978, Turkey even­ keep measured unemployment down tually went to the I M F, and likewise byover-manning, and by subsidizing to the OE CD (Organization for Econ­ workers to stay on farms. They were omic Cooperation and Development) also being used to conceal inflation to refinance its foreign debt. The I MF, by selling goods and services below as expected, imposed conditions. The cost. With no capital market, also, Turks accepted the loans; as to the Turkey cannot fjnance its government conditions, they promised compliance and public-enterprise deficits except in the near future. The I MF claims the by selling bonds to the Central Bank, Turks did not fulfil their promises ade­ which pays for them by setting up quately, and has refused to provide government deposits (bank money) on the latest major instalment of the its own books. To slow down mone- funds it had previously promised un- 2 less the Turks offer financia! commit­ ments in advance. The Turks refuse to fault is seen as a confession of mis­ do so, however, and there the dead­ management. Furthermore, if any large lock stands. number of non-oil developing coun­ tries default on their otl-shock debts, View from the Bosporus the combined effect on the profitability As Premier Ecevit's ruling Turkish of the large international banks would Government coalition apparently sees bea serious matter indeed. the situation, the I M F conditions re­ quire higher unemployment, higher All this in a country where most public prices for public services, lower stand­ enterprises were set up on a temporary ards of living, retardation of measured basis by a "free enterprise" political growth, higher interest rates and lower party, and enjoined to act like private imports - in short, stagflation. These, it firms! Also in a country whose Central fears, could lead to great unrest. Since Bank is legaliy free to withhold finan­ the I M F and OE C D want no such result, cial support from the government defi­ they may feel constrained to grant Turk­ cit by refusing to purchase public ish aid with less stringent conditions. securities! The only thing certain is that the paradoxes will continue.,_" Of course the Turks may default on their private debt - not repudiate it, Martin Bronfenbrenner but postpone principal and interest payments indefinitely. But the Turks (The author, Professor of Economics hesitate to follow this route, possibly at Duke University, is Visiting Scholar because of the political consequences at the Federal Reserve Bank of San of the previous episode of this sort in Francisco this semester.) New Publication Available Copies are now available of the 720-page Mineral Resourcesin the Pacific Area, a collection of 13 papers on the Pacific Basin's mineral resources and their relationship to global economics and politics. This report constitutes the proceedings of the Ninth Pacific Trade and Development Conference, held in August of 1 977 at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Free copies of these Proceedings can be obtained by calling or writing the Public Information Section, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco 941 20. Phone (41 5)(544-21 84). Note: copies of the Conference Summary and Abstracts of Papers (Economic Review Supplement, Fall 1977) are also still available. 3 • yl?ln • • l?pl?IIaN • 0YEPI !!l?Ml?H • l?!UJoJ!ll?:) EUOZ!J\r' e l?)ISl?IV 'J!l1I!:>'OJSPU1l!J:I U1l!S ZSL'ON GI Vd 1 9V1 S0d 's'n llVW S5Vl:> lS31:l1 J;1 mJ;1JJW:w BANKING DATA-TWELFTHfEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (Dollar amounts in millions) Amount Change Changefrom SelectedAssets and liabilities Outstanding from year ago@ large CommerdallBanks 2/28/79 2/21/79 Dollar Percent Loans (gross,adjusted) and investments* 121,502 208 NA NA Loans(gross, adjusted) - total# 99,338 147 Commercial and industrial 29,122 225 Real estate 35,352 114 Loansto individuals 20,414 97 Securities loans 1,662 339 U.s. Treasurysecurities* 7,656 33 Other securities* 14,508 28 Demand deposits - total# 40,475 635 Demand deposits - adjusted 28,945 635 Savingsdeposits - total 29,562 123 Time deposits - total# 50,917 6 Individuals, part.
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