Some Historical Reflections on the Governance of the Federal Reserve by Michael D. Bordo
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A Model of Bimetallism
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department A Model of Bimetallism François R. Velde and Warren E. Weber Working Paper 588 August 1998 ABSTRACT Bimetallism has been the subject of considerable debate: Was it a viable monetary system? Was it a de- sirable system? In our model, the (exogenous and stochastic) amount of each metal can be split between monetary uses to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, and nonmonetary uses in which the stock of un- coined metal yields utility. The ratio of the monies in the cash-in-advance constraint is endogenous. Bi- metallism is feasible: we find a continuum of steady states (in the certainty case) indexed by the constant exchange rate of the monies; we also prove existence for a range of fixed exchange rates in the stochastic version. Bimetallism does not appear desirable on a welfare basis: among steady states, we prove that welfare under monometallism is higher than under any bimetallic equilibrium. We compute welfare and the variance of the price level under a variety of regimes (bimetallism, monometallism with and without trade money) and find that bimetallism can significantly stabilize the price level, depending on the covari- ance between the shocks to the supplies of metals. Keywords: bimetallism, monometallism, double standard, commodity money *Velde, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Weber, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minne- sota. We thank without implicating Marc Flandreau, Ed Green, Angela Redish, and Tom Sargent. The views ex- pressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Fed- eral Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. -
WHY DID the BANK of in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES WHY DIDTHEBANK OF CANADA EMERGE IN 1935? Michael Bordo Angela Redish Working Paper No. 2079 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 1986 The research reported here is part of the NBER's research program in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Paper #2079 November 1986 Why Did the Bank of Canada Emerge in 1935? ABSTRACT Three possible explanations for the emergence of the Canadian central bank in 1935 are examined: that it reflected the need of competitive banking systems for a lender of the last resort; that it was necessary to anchor the unregulated Canadian monetary system after the abandonment of the gold standard in 1929; and that it was a response to political rather than purely economic pressures. Evidence from a variety of sources (contemporary statements to a Royal Comission, the correspondence of chartered bankers, newspaper reports, academic writings and the estimation of time series econometric models) rejects the first two hypotheses and supports the third. Michael D. Bordo Angela Redish Department of Economics Department of Economics College of Business Administration University of British Columbia University of South CArolina Vancouver, B.C. V6T lY2 Columbia, SC 29208 Canada Why Did the Bank of Canada Emeroe in 1935? Michael D. Bordo and Angela Redish Three possible explanations for the emergence of the Canadian central bank in 1935 are examined: that it reflected the need of competitive banking systems for a lender of last resort; that it was necessary to anchor the unregulated Canadian monetary system after the abandonment of the gold standard in 1929; and that it was a response to political rather than purely economic pressures. -
Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 Period
Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 period Michael D. Bordo NBER and Rutgers University John Landon-Lane Rutgers University Angela Redish University of British Columbia Abstract In this paper, we examine the issue of deflation from a historical perspective. We focus on the price level and growth experiences at the four dominant countries on the gold standard, in the period 1880-1913: the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by negative aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard-Quah model which decomposes the behavior of prices, output, and the money stock in the impact of three structural shocks (a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, a domestic demand shock). Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that money was neutral and output was mainly supply driven. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation. JEL: Money, Economic History, 1880-1913. Keywords: Deflation, Gold Standard, Demand, Supply Shocks. The authors wish to thank participants at the CNEH conference and at the Money/macro seminar at Carleton University and Tulane University, for comments, and Jake Wong for research assistance. Michael D. Bordo, Department of Economics, New Jersey Hall, 75 Hamilton Street, Rutgers University. New Brunswick NJ 08901. (732) – 932 – 7069/7416. [email protected] Introduction The return to an environment of low inflation in most countries in the past decade has sparked renewed interest in the subject of deflation since its possibility is only a recession away. -
Draft. Do Not Cite. April 4, 2005 Deflation, Productivity Shocks And
Draft. Do not cite. April 4, 2005 Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880-1914 period Michael D. Bordo NBER and Rutgers University John Landon-Lane Rutgers University Angela Redish University of British Columbia Paper prepared for seminar at Carleton University, and the conference of the Canadian Network in Economic History, Kingston, ON, April 2005. All comments appreciated. Introduction The return to an environment of low inflation in most countries in the past decade has sparked renewed interest in the subject of deflation since its possibility is only a recession away. The recent deflationary experiences of Japan, China, Hong Kong, Switzerland and other countries led to concern in 2003 by policymakers at the Federal Reserve, the ECB and elsewhere that it could happen to them. They feared the possibility of prolonged stagnation as experienced by Japan or even worse a deflationary spiral that would lead to the conditions of the 1930s Great Depression (Bordo and Filardo, 2004). In this paper we examine the issue from an historical perspective. We focus on the experience of deflation in the late nineteenth century when most of the countries of the world adhered to the classical gold standard. The period 1880-1914 was characterized by two decades of secular deflation followed by two decades of secular inflation. The price level experience of the pre 1914 period has considerable resonance for today’s environment. Several elements are salient. First deflation pre 1914 was quite low as has been the case recently. In the U.S. the GNP deflator declined by an average of 1% to 1.5 % per year from 1880-1896. -
When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling As the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1433 / MAY 2012 WHEN DID THE DOLLAR OVERTAKE STERLING AS THE LEADING INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY? EVIDENCE FROM THE BOND MARKETS by Livia Chitu, Barry Eichengreen and Arnaud Mehl In 2012 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €50 banknote. NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Thierry Bracke, Marc Flandreau, Kristin Forbes, Norbert Gaillard, Christopher Meissner, Angela Redish and Roland Straub for helpful discussions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. Livia Chițu at European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] Barry Eichengreen at University of California, 603 Evans Hall, Berkeley, 94720 California, USA; e-mail: [email protected] Arnaud Mehl at European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. ISSN 1725-2806 (online) Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors. -
History of Federal Reserve Free Edition
Free Digital Edition A Visual History of the Federal Reserve System 1914 - 2009 This is a free digital edition of a chart created by John Paul Koning. It has been designed to be ap- chase. Alternatively, if you have found this chart useful but don’t want to buy a paper edition, con- preciated on paper as a 24x36 inch display. If you enjoy this chart please consider buying the paper sider donating to me at www.financialgraphart.com/donate. It took me many months to compile the version at www.financialgraphart.com. Buyers of the chart will recieve a bonus chart “reimagin- data and design it, any support would be much appreciated. ing” the history of the Fed’s balance sheet. The updated 2010 edition is also now available for pur- John Paul Koning, 2010 FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE, the Federal Reserve has Multiple data series including the Fed’s balance sheet, This image is published under a Creative Commons been governing the monetary system of the United States interest rates and spreads, reserve requirements, chairmen, How to read this chart: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 License since 1914. This chart maps the rise of the Fed from its inflation, recessions, and more help chronicle this rise. While Start origins as a relatively minor institution, often controlled by this chart can only tell part of the complex story of the Fed, 1914-1936 Willliam P. Harding $16 Presidents and the United States Department of the we trust it will be a valuable reference tool to anyone Member, Federal Reserve Board 13b Treasury, into an independent and powerful body that rivals curious about the evolution of this very influential yet Adviser to the Cuban government Benjamin Strong Jr. -
10The Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District YEARS AFTER
10YEARS AFTER The Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District 10 YEARS AFTER: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 1 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was researched and written by Maggie Corser. Shawn Sebastian provided supplemental writing and editing. It was edited by Emily Gordon and Jordan Haedtler, Center for Popular Democracy. The report benefitted from and cites data analysis by the Economic Policy Institute of the Current Population Survey, and the Urban Institute of the Survey of Consumer Finances. ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS The Center for Popular Democracy (CPD) works to create equity, opportunity and a dynamic democracy in partnership with high-impact base-building organizations, organizing alliances, and progressive unions. CPD strengthens our collective capacity to envision and win an innovative pro-worker, pro-immigrant, racial and economic justice agenda. www.populardemocracy.org Fed Up is a coalition of community organizations and labor unions across the country, calling on the Federal Reserve to reform its governance and adopt policies that build a strong economy for the American public. The Fed can keep interest rates low, give the economy a fair chance to recover, and prioritize genuine full employment and rising wages. www.ThePeoplesFed.org 2 10 YEARS AFTER: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 10 Years After: the Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report marks the 10-year anniversary of the global financial crisis that threatened the stability of the financial system and resulted in severe and protracted economic hardship for communities across the United States. -
Deflation Edited by Richard C
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-83799-6 — Deflation Edited by Richard C. K. Burdekin , Pierre L. Siklos Frontmatter More Information DEFLATION Until recently, fears of deflation seemed nothing more than a relic of the Great Depression. However, beginning in the 1990s, persistently falling consumer prices emerged in Japan, China, and elsewhere. Deflation is also a distinct possibility in some of the major euro area economies, especially Germany, and became a concern of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2003. Deflation may be worse than inflation, not only because the real burden of debt rises but also because firms would confront rising real wages in a world where nominal wage rigidity prevails. This volume explores some key themes regarding deflation including: (i) how economic agents and policy makers have responded to de- flation; (ii) the links between monetary policy, goods price movements, and asset price movements; (iii) the impact of deflation under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes; and (iv) stock market reactions to deflation. Richard C. K. Burdekin is Jonathan B. Lovelace Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, California. His areas of interest include monetary and financial economics, Chinese economic reforms, and inflation and deflation. Professor Burdekin has published four books: Budget Deficits and Economic Performance (with Farrokh K. Langdana), Confidence, Credibility and Macroeconomic Policy (with Farrokh K. Langdana), Distributional Conflict and Inflation (with Paul Burkett), and Establish- ing Monetary Stability in Emerging Market Economies (edited with Thomas D. Willett, Richard J. Sweeney, and Clas Wihlborg). He has also authored more than forty refereed journal articles that have been published in the American Economic Review; the Jour- nal of Economic History; the Journal of International Money and Finance; the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; and the Review of Economics and Statistics, among other leading publications. -
US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Strained Relations: U.S. Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century Volume Author/Editor: Michael D. Bordo, Owen F. Humpage, and Anna J. Schwartz Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-05148-X, 978-0-226-05148-2 (cloth); 978-0-226-05151-2 (eISBN) Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/bord12-1 Conference Date: n/a Publication Date: February 2015 Chapter Title: U.S. Intervention during the Bretton Woods Era, 1962– 1973 Chapter Author(s): Michael D. Bordo, Owen F. Humpage, Anna J. Schwartz Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c13540 Chapter pages in book: (p. 120 – 209) 4 US Intervention during the Bretton Woods Era, 1962– 1973 There is little evidence . of any systematic eVort by the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy in a manner consistent with the requirements of a Wxed exchange rate sys- tem. And, there is no evidence that any of the administrations objected to this neglect. —Allan H. Meltzer (1991, 55) 4.1 Introduction The Bretton Woods Wxed- exchange- rate system attempted to maintain par values and promoted free cross- border Wnancial Xows while still allow- ing countries to promote domestic macroeconomic objectives, notably full employment. It hoped to do so by allowing countries to alter parities in the face of fundamental disequilibria and to temporarily impose restraints on Wnancial Xows. Whether such a system ever oVered a long- term, viable solu- tion to the fundamental trilemma of international Wnance seems unlikely, but more immediate Xaws shortened whatever longevity Bretton Woods may have had. -
Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve
P1: SBT 9780521881326pre CUNY1202/Hetzel 978 0 521 88132 6 February 25, 2008 16:9 This page intentionally left blank ii P1: SBT 9780521881326pre CUNY1202/Hetzel 978 0 521 88132 6 February 25, 2008 16:9 THE MONETARY POLICY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve details the evolution of the monetary standard from the start of the Federal Reserve through the end of the Greenspan era. The book places that evolution in the context of the intellectual and political environment of the time. By understanding the fitful process of replacing a gold standard with a paper money standard, the conduct of monetary policy becomes a series of experiments useful for understanding the fundamental issues concerning money and prices. How did the recurrent monetary instability of the twentieth century relate to the economic instability and to the associated political and social turbulence? After the detour in policy represented by FOMC chairmen Arthur Burns and G. William Miller, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan established the monetary standard originally foreshadowed by William McChesney Martin, who became chairman in 1951. The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve explains in a straightforward way the emergence and nature of the modern, inflation-targeting central bank. Robert L. Hetzel is Senior Economist and Policy Adviser in the Research Depart- ment of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he has served for more than 30 years. Dr. Hetzel’s research has appeared in publications such as the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; the Journal of Monetary Economics; the Monetary and Economics Studies series of the Bank of Japan; and the Carnegie-Rochester Confer- ence Series.His writings provided one of the catalysts for the congressional hearings and treasury studies leading to the issuance of Treasury Inflation Protected Secu- rities, or TIPS. -
Who Controls the Gold Stealing New York Fed Bank? Presented January 2014 by Charles Savoie “WE HAVE the QUESTION of GOLD UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE
Who Controls The Gold Stealing New York Fed Bank? Presented January 2014 by Charles Savoie “WE HAVE THE QUESTION OF GOLD UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE. WE HAVE BEEN UNDER ATTACK BECAUSE OF OUR ATTITUDE TOWARDS GOLD. A FREE GOLD MARKET IS HERESY. THERE IS NO SENSE IN A MAKE BELIEVE FREE GOLD MARKET. GOLD HAS NO USEFUL PURPOSE TO SERVE IN THE POCKETS OF THE PEOPLE. THERE IS NO HIDDEN AGENDA.” ---Pilgrims Society member Allan Sproul, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1941-1956. “ANY ATTEMPT TO WRITE UP THE PRICE OF GOLD WOULD ASSUREDLY BE MATCHED, WITHIN HOURS, BY COMPARABLE AND OFFSETTING ACTION.” ---Robert V. Roosa, Pilgrims Society, in “Monetary Reform for the World Economy” (1965). Roosa was with the New York Federal Reserve Bank, 1946-1960 when he moved to Treasury to fight silver coinage! “The most powerful international society on earth, the “Pilgrims,” is so wrapped in silence that few Americans know even of its existence since 1903.” ---E.C. Knuth, “The Empire of The City: World Superstate” (Milwaukee, 1946), page 9. “A cold blooded attitude is a necessary part of my Midas touch!” ---financier Scott Breckenridge in “The Midas Man,” April 13, 1966 “The Big Valley” The Pilgrims Society is the last great secret of modern history! ******************** Before gold goes berserk like Godzilla rampaging across Tokyo--- and frees silver to supernova---let’s have a look into backgrounds of key Federal Reserve personalities, with special focus on the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The NYFED is the center of an international scandal regarding refusal (incapacity) to return German-owned gold. -
Should We Worry About Deflation? Prevention and Cure
Should We Worry about Deflation? * Prevention and Cure 2003 McKenna Lecture on International Trade and Economics; Perspective on the Economy Willem H. Buiter** *** European Bank for Reconstruction and Development NBER and CEPR * Lecture given at Claremont McKenna College, on November 24, 2003. ** The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. *** © Willem H. Buiter 2003, 2004. Abstract After an absence of almost half a century, the spectre of deflation is once again haunting the corridors of central banks and finance ministries in the industrial world. While preventing or combating deflation poses some unique difficulties not present in preventing or combating inflation, deflation can be prevented and, if it has taken hold, can be overcome, using conventional instruments of monetary and fiscal policy. These include changes in the short nominal interest rate (when the zero bound constraint is not binding), the intentional depreciation of the external value of the currency, open market purchases of government securities and monetary financing of government deficits caused by expansionary tax cuts, increases in transfers or higher public spending on goods and services. Base money-financed tax cuts or transfer payments – the mundane version of Friedman’s helicopter drop of money – will (almost) always boost aggregate demand, but require coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. Unconventional monetary and fiscal measures are also available. These include open market purchases of private and foreign securities, negative nominal interest rates (through a carry tax on currency) and temporary tax measures aimed at shifting private consumption from the future to the present, by tilting the intertemporal terms of trade.