Sherwood Lodge, Oxcroft Lane, Bolsover Retail and Transport Appraisal Final Report

Roger Tym & Partners t: 0116 249 3970 3 Museum Square e: 0116 249 3971 Leicester e: [email protected] LE1 6UF w: www.tymconsult.com Part of Peter Brett Associates LLP

Bolsover District Council Sherwood Lodge, Oxcroft Lane, Bolsover Retail and Transport Appraisal Final Report

Final Report May 2011

Unless alternative contractual arrangements have been made, this report remains the property of Roger Tym & Partners until fees have been paid in full. Copyright and other intellectual property laws protect this information. Reproduction or retransmission of the information, in whole or in part, in any manner, without the prior written consent of the copyright holder, is a violation of copyright law.

RTP Job Number M9568

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE OF REPORT ...... 1 2 THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVENIENCE FLOORSPACE IN BOLSOVER ...... 4 3 ESTABLISHING A SUITABLE FOODSTORE SIZE ...... 7 4 CONCLUSIONS ...... 14

APPENDICES Appendix 1 – Quantitative data tables Appendix 2 - Transport briefing note

Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

1 INTRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE OF REPORT 1.1 Roger Tym & Partners (RTP) have been instructed to undertake an assessment of the scope for accommodating a retail foodstore on the site of the Bolsover District Council offices at Oxcroft Lane, Bolsover. 1.2 There are three components to the study, as set out in the study brief provided by the Council: • (Task 1) To provide reasoned advice on the largest size of retail unit which could be accommodated on the Council's landholding on the north side of Bolsover Town Centre taking into account the findings of the recent retail capacity assessment, and the requirements of national planning policy guidance. The aim should be to maximise the amount of provision for convenience retail to address the need identified in the recently completed retail study for a larger format foodstore, and to complement this within the same unit with provision for comparison goods.

• (Task 2) To produce a sketch plan at either 1: 1,250 or 1:2,500 scale, showing a possible footprint for the store, together with access arrangements, car parking and servicing. Please note that ideally the car parking area should help to serve a town centre function, rather than being solely limited to the requirements resulting from the additional retail unit(s).

• (Task 3) To commission an outline transport appraisal of the potential development, including estimates of trip generation and trip distribution ( both existing and proposed), cumulative impacts of the development scheme and committed development, identification of the main impacts arising from extra trip generation and altered movement patterns upon the highway network, identification of sensitive locations on the network together with proposals to mitigate impacts and address residual impacts in a satisfactory manner. Some consideration should also be given to sustainable travel initiatives, capitalising on the site's central location and encouraging modal shift (out of the private car and onto public transport, cycling or walking). 1.3 In this main report we set out the findings in respect of Task 1. The sketch plans (Task 2) together with an outline transport appraisal of the potential development (Task 3) have both been prepared by Peter Brett Associates, and are provided as Appendix 2 to this report. 1.4 In this report we make reference to the findings of the Bolsover Retail Capacity Assessment (BRCA) 2010, which was finalised in March 2011, and also to the findings of additional

Final Report | May 2011 1 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

retail advice1 provided to the Council in May 2011, in respect of the scope for developing out-of-centre retail floorspace in Bolsover. 1.5 The findings of this report should be read in conjunction with the above-mentioned reports. Structure of remainder of report 1.6 In the remainder of this section we summarise the main findings of the BRCA in respect of convenience goods floorspace requirements and in particular the need for additional floorspace to be developed in Bolsover town. 1.7 In Section 2 we set out in greater detail the impetus for new convenience retail floorspace in Bolsover, and in Section 3 we undertake a broad assessment exercise to establish the size of foodstore which could be supported in Bolsover town. Finally, Section 4 sets out our conclusions. 1.8 The study is supported by two appendices. Appendix 1 contains tabulations which support Section 3 of the main report, whilst Appendix 2 provides the sketch plan and transport assessment by Peter Brett Associates which form Tasks 2 and 3 of the study. Summary of findings of the Bolsover Retail Capacity Assessment (BRCA) 1.9 The BRCA updated the findings of the previous retail capacity work undertaken for Bolsover District in 2006. The 2010 Update identifies convenience goods requirements on a District-wide scale to 2026, although it is advised that longer-term forecasts are treated with caution. 1.10 Figure 1.1 shows the District-wide convenience goods capacity forecasts which were identified in the BRCA. These forecasts took into account over-trading of existing foodstores in the District, in line with government guidance published in Planning Policy Statement 4 (PPS4). Figure 1.1 – Requirements for convenience goods floorspace in Bolsover District, 2010- 2026 2010-2016 2016-2021 2021-2026 Total

Minimum 228 314 323 865 requirement sq.m net

Maximum 899 852 704 2,456 requirement sq.m net

1 Roger Tym & Partners for Bolsover District Council, ‘Bolsover North West: Comparative analysis of the case for retail development on two sites in Bolsover’ Final Report, May 2011

Final Report | May 2011 2 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

Source: Bolsover Retail Capacity Assessment, Roger Tym & Partners 2010 1.11 The findings of Table 1.1 indicate that there is limited quantitative capacity for additional foodstore provision across Bolsover District in quantitative terms. Indeed, subsequent to the finalisation of the retail study, planning permission has been granted for the development of a retail foodstore on the edge of Shirebrook town centre, to be operated by Tesco. In effect, its granting of permission removes the quantitative requirement for additional convenience floorspace in the District in the short and medium term. 1.12 However, as stressed extensively in the BRCA, there are clear qualitative shortcomings in the convenience retail offer in parts of Bolsover District. The only large foodstore in the District at present which is capable of serving the majority of residents’ main (i.e. weekly) food shopping needs is the Tesco foodstore in Clowne. The delivery of a Tesco foodstore in Shirebrook will assist in meeting many residents main food shopping needs in this location, whilst residents in South Normanton benefit from good access to foodstores in Alfreton. 1.13 Subject to Tesco in Shirebrook coming forward as expected, the only town in Bolsover District which will be left without a foodstore capable of meeting local residents’ main food shopping needs will be Bolsover. The BRCA concluded (paragraph 9.14) that: ‘At present the town [Bolsover] is only served by a small Co-Operative foodstore in the town centre, and this is not of sufficient size to satisfy main food shopping needs of residents. Although there is limited quantitative capacity for an additional main foodstore in the District, we do consider there to be a pressing qualitative need for enhancement of provision to serve the Bolsover area’.

Final Report | May 2011 3 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

2 THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVENIENCE FLOORSPACE IN BOLSOVER 2.1 In this section we consider the rationale behind providing larger-format convenience floorspace in Bolsover town. In the following section, we develop this further by examining the quantum of convenience floorspace which could be provided in the town. 2.2 It is considered that there is a strong case for the delivery of additional large-format convenience floorspace in Bolsover, on the following grounds: (1) Lack of consumer choice in Bolsover town centre (2) Expenditure leakage to large foodstores further afield 2.3 These two points are inter-related but we discuss them in turn below. Lack of consumer choice in Bolsover 2.4 The BRCA identified that at present, there is only one foodstore trading in Bolsover. This is the Co-Operative foodstore at Town End, which extends to only 763 sq.m net sales area. The Co-Operative store was formerly Somerfield. Following the acquisition of Somerfield, Co-Operative closed their existing store in the town, resulting in a qualitative reduction in the convenience retail offer, as the former Co-Operative store has been occupied by a discount comparison goods retailer, The Original Factory Shop. 2.5 Elsewhere in the town centre there has been a recent opening by Jack Fulton Frozen Foods, but this is a discount, frozen foods specialist retailer, and does not offer potential for main food shopping. There is also a Farmfoods store, which offers a similarly restricted product offer. Outside the town centre, there is a One Stop store at Carr Vale, but this caters for top-up shopping only. 2.6 The Co-Operative store, at 763 sq.m net, is of insufficient size to meet many residents main food shopping needs. Although the BRCA identifies that the store has a strong market share from the local area, we consider this to be more reflective of the lack of alternative provision, rather than the strength of this existing store. Site visits to the store confirm its relatively limited retail offer. 2.7 The dominance of one retailer over convenience shopping patterns is also contrary to the aims and objectives of PPS4. In particular we draw attention to Policy EC4.1, which is one of the ‘plan-making’ policies and therefore of relevance to the Council in preparing their Local Development Framework. Policy EC4.1 states that ‘Local planning authorities should proactively plan to promote competitive town centre environments and provide consumer choice by: • Planning for a strong retail mix so that the range and quality of the comparison and convenience retail offer meets the requirements of the local catchment area’ (EC4.1b); and • ‘Identifying sites in the centre, or failing that on the edge of the centre, capable of accommodating larger format developments where a need for such development has been identified’ (EC4.1d)

Final Report | May 2011 4 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

2.8 The BRCA has identified that there is a clear need for a larger format convenience development in Bolsover. Current provision in the town does not meet the requirements of the local catchment area. It also identified that whilst Bolsover town centre exhibits generally positive signs of vitality and viability, the centre is suffering from an increase in levels of vacant floorspace, and suffers from very low footfall in secondary areas. RTP are of the opinion that the provision of additional convenience retail provision of appropriate scale in Bolsover town centre will significantly enhance the vitality and viability of the centre. Such a development will also assist in meeting the aims and objectives of PPS4. Expenditure leakage to stores further afield 2.9 The BRCA identified that in 2010, there is a total of £20.00m available convenience goods expenditure to residents in Bolsover town and the surrounding area, which formed Zone 3 to the BRCA. This is expected to increase to £24.08m by 2021. Table 2.1 below shows the distribution of this convenience goods spending in 2010, based on the findings of the household survey undertaken in 2006. Table 2.1 – Summary of current spending patterns on convenience goods in the Bolsover area (BRCA zone 3) Expenditure spent at Expenditure spent Expenditure spent in foodstores in elsewhere in foodstores outside Bolsover area (BRCA Bolsover District Bolsover District Survey zone 3) (BRCA Survey zones 1, 2 and 4-7)

Amount of £10.24m (51.2%) £4.89m (24.5%) £4.87m (24.4%) expenditure (out of £20.00m total)

Main destinations Co-Operative Tesco, Clowne Morrisons, Staveley (£7.23m2) (£4.25m) (£2.20m) One Stop, Carr Vale Aldi, Shirebook Tesco, Chesterfield (£1.91m) (£0.32m) (£0.99m) Local shops, Bolsover Sainsbury’s, (£0.80m) Chesterfield (£0.53m)

Source: Bolsover Retail Capacity Assessment, Roger Tym & Partners 2010

2 The BRCA utilised the findings of the preceding retail assessment in 2006 to establish current store turnovers. At the time of the household survey which was undertaken to inform this previous study, both the Somerfield and Co-Operative stores in Bolsover were trading. Therefore this figure represents the combined turnover of these stores, rolled forward to 2010 – i.e. it is assumed that all of the trade previously split between the Co-Operative and Somerfield has been transferred to the Co-Operative store.

Final Report | May 2011 5 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

2.10 Table 2.2 shows the distance the most popular convenience shopping destinations for residents in the Bolsover zone are from the town. It can be seen that the majority of residents who are not currently undertaking their shopping in the town are travelling upwards of four miles to a variety of large foodstores in Clowne, Staveley and Chesterfield. Subsequent to the household survey a large new Tesco Extra store has opened in Chesterfield and it is possible that some expenditure has been diverted to this new store over and above the level identified in the household survey (which equates to £0.99m in 2010 prices), particularly given the relative lack of provision within the zone itself. As noted above, the One Stop in Carr Vale is a small top-up shopping destination, and its popularity reflects the lack of adequate provision in the District at present. Table 2.2 – Distance to main food shopping destinations for residents in BRCA zone 3 Foodstore Expenditure draw from Distance from Bolsover area (BRCA Bolsover town centre Survey zone 3) (miles) Co-Operative, Bolsover 7.23* -

Tesco, Clowne 4.25 4.2 Morrisons, Staveley 2.20 4.9

2.11 One Stop, Carr Vale 2.12 1.91 2.13 0.7

2.14 Tesco, Chesterfield 2.15 0.99 2.16 5.8

2.17 Sainsbury’s, Chesterfield 2.18 0.53 2.19 6.8

*combined turnover for Somerfield and Co‐Operative stores in Bolsover – see footnote. Distance is based in miles from Town End, Bolsover, using Google Maps Directions, and is estimated. 2.20 Therefore it can be seen that almost 50 per cent of available convenience goods expenditure available to residents of BRCA Zone 3 is currently spent outside the zone – either elsewhere in Bolsover District or further afield. The majority of these residents travel between 4 and 7 miles each way in order to visit their nearest large foodstore, which does not suggest a sustainable pattern of shopping. Allied to the identified limited provision within the town at present – which is restricted to a small Co-Operative foodstore, supported by two frozen food retailers – it is considered there is a clear and pressing need for the development of additional convenience retail floorspace in the town. 2.21 In addition, the results of the household survey into shopping patterns in the District indicate that some residents in Zone 5 of the BRCA catchment (to the immediate south of Zone 3) look towards Bolsover for their convenience goods shopping. The zone is relatively sparsely populated, but there is a total of £4.98m available in convenience goods expenditure in 2010, expected to increase to £5.53m by 2021. Currently, approximately one quarter of this expenditure flows to stores in Bolsover. The remainder flows outside the District. It is considered that with suitable provision in Bolsover, further trade draw from this zone could potentially be supported.

Final Report | May 2011 6 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

3 ESTABLISHING A SUITABLE FOODSTORE SIZE 3.1 Having identified the rationale behind the development of additional convenience retail floorspace in Bolsover town centre, in this section we review the size of foodstore which could be supported in Bolsover town centre. 3.2 In undertaking this review, three factors must be considered: • Stage 1 - The potential for ‘clawback’ of expenditure being lost to foodstores outside Bolsover District; • Stage 2 - The potential for ‘clawback’ of expenditure being lost to foodstores elsewhere in Bolsover District (i.e. to Clowne and Shirebrook); and • Stage 3 - The potential for any development in Bolsover town to draw trade in from neighbouring areas outside Bolsover District. Stage 1 Scope for clawback of expenditure 3.3 The first stage is to consider the potential for ‘clawback’ of convenience goods expenditure which is presently flowing from Bolsover to other destinations in the District, and also to foodstores outside the District. We have seen in Section 2 that approximately 50 per cent of available expenditure on convenience goods flows outside BRCA Zone 3, and this leakage is roughly equally split between stores elsewhere in the District, and those outside the District boundary. 3.4 In undertaking this exercise, we have prepared a bespoke assessment of quantitative need which is based solely on the Bolsover town catchment area. The assessment of need follows the structure of that set out in the BRCA, which forecast quantitative need for the entire District (as set out at Figure 1.1). However in this instance, we have adopted a smaller catchment based solely on the populations of Zones 3 and 5 of the BRCA. These are the areas which could be expected to look towards Bolsover town centre should a foodstore of suitable scale come forward in the town. Zone 3 covers the Bolsover urban area and surrounding natural hinterland, whilst Zone 5 covers the area to the south of Bolsover, centered on Glapwell. 3.5 The zones are highlighted in Figure 3.1 below.

Final Report | May 2011 7 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

Figure 3.1 – Map showing BRCA survey zones 3 and 5 (highlighted)

3.6 In Tables A1 and A2, shown at Appendix 1 to this report, we set out detailed tabulations of our assessment of quantitative need based on this smaller catchment area. Table A1 shows the ‘no development’ scenario, i.e. the level of convenience floorspace which could be supported if no development took place. Table A2 shows the level of floorspace which could be supported if a foodstore were to be developed, as it is considered that this would deliver a substantial uplift in the amount of convenience goods expenditure retained in the area.

Final Report | May 2011 8 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

3.7 It can be seen from Tables A1 and A2 that the combined population of BRCA zones 3 and 5 is currently 16,942 persons, and this is expected to increase to 18,071 by 2016 and 19,067 by 2021. This represents an increase of 2,125 persons over the course of the next decade. 3.8 There is currently £24.98m of convenience goods expenditure available to residents of these two zones (comprised of £20.00m for residents in BRCA Zone 3, as identified previously, plus a further £4.98m for residents in BRCA Zone 5). This is expected to increase to £27.23m by 2016 and £29.60m by 2021, having made allowance for ‘special forms of trading’ discounts such as online shopping. 3.9 Based on the findings of the 2006 household survey, the following spending patterns currently take place within these two zones (Table 3.2): Table 3.2 – Summary of spending patterns in BRCA zones 3 and 5 Expenditure spent in stores in Expenditure spent in stores in

Zone 3 Zone 5 From residents in Zone 3 £10.24m (see Table 2.1) None From residents in Zone 5 £1.17m £0.28m Sub-total for zone £11.41m £0.28m Overall total £11.69m

3.10 This means that £11.69m of the total expenditure ‘pot’ of £24.98m is spent within the area, equivalent to a retention rate of 47 per cent. The remaining £13.30m flows to foodstores further afield, chiefly those set out in Table 2.1 above. 3.11 On this basis we consider that there is significant scope for the level of expenditure retention within the Bolsover area to be improved. 3.12 Under the ‘static retention scenario set out in Table A1, if shopping patterns (and provision) remains unchanged, there will be a requirement of just 464 sq.m net additional convenience goods floorspace in the short term to 2016. This is insufficient to support a foodstore of the scale required to provide for main food shopping trips in Bolsover; rather, it would simply be replicating (although providing competition with) the existing offer in the town. The majority of this floorspace requires arises on the grounds that existing foodstores in the Bolsover area were identified as overtrading by approximately £4.7m against company benchmarks in the BRCA. 3.13 In Table A2 (also shown at Appendix 1), we show the level of floorspace which could be supported by increasing the proportion of expenditure which is retained within the two survey zones. We consider it realistic that a convenience goods retention rate of between 85 and 90 per cent could be achieved through the provision of a modern foodstore of appropriate scale, in a suitable location with good linkages to the rest of the retail offer in the town. This assumption is based on the grounds that:

Final Report | May 2011 9 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

(i) Bolsover is currently losing expenditure to outside the District, particularly to stores in Chesterfield and Staveley, which are between five and seven miles from the town; (ii) Bolsover is also losing market share to other foodstores in Bolsover District, in particular Tesco at Clowne, and to a more limited extent stores such as Aldi in Shirebrook. 3.14 Accordingly Table A2 shows that, by increasing the retention rate from 47 to 85 per cent by 2016, the scope for additional floorspace increases considerably, to 1,335 sq.m net floorspace by 2016. 3.15 It is considered that this represents the maximum quantum of floorspace which could be derived based solely on expenditure available within the District, and more specifically BRCA Zones 3 and 5. Stage 2 Scope for trade draw from outside Bolsover District 3.16 The spatial location of Bolsover close to the western administrative boundaries of the District indicates that any large-format foodstore has significant potential to draw in trade from outside Bolsover District. 3.17 We would expect a moderate to large-sized foodstore to draw trade from within a ten- minute drive-time iscohrone. This reflects the ‘natural’ catchment area a store would be expected to achieve, although in more under-served rural areas such as those to the south of Bolsover, this isochrones may extend to 15 minutes. 3.18 Bespoke population data for the 10-minute drive-time isochrone from Bolsover town centre identifies a population of 19,887 persons. Of these, 17,295 persons reside within Bolsover District and will therefore be accounted for by the exercise set out in Tables A1 and A2. There is a residual population of 1,096 persons in Chesterfield Borough and 1,496 persons in North East Derbyshire District who we believe will look towards any new foodstore in Bolsover as their main food shopping destination. This is equivalent to an additional 15.7 per cent of the population set out in Tables A1 and A2. 3.19 However, we believe that there is scope for some residents living slightly further afield to also be drawn to the new store, and therefore we consider it appropriate to allow for a 20 per cent uplift on the figure of 1,335 sq.m net identified above. In addition we also make provision for a further 5 per cent inflow from further afield – for example, visitors to the town. This increases the total convenience goods floorspace capacity which can be accommodated to 1,668 sq.m net3. This represents the total convenience goods floorspace which can be delivered in Bolsover.

3 Calculated by adding 20% of the figure of 1,335 sq.m net to the baseline, equivalent to 267 sq.m net, giving a total of 1,602 sq.m net. Added to this is a further 5% of the base figure of 1,335 sq.m net, equivalent to 67 sq.m net. The total of 1,335, 267 and 67 sq.m net equals 1,668 sq.m net.

Final Report | May 2011 10 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

3.20 In addition it would be expected that any foodstore would include an element of comparison goods floorspace. In absence of any confirmed operator for the site we have assumed that 35 per cent of the convenience goods baseline requirement of 1,335 sq.m net sales area will be given over to comparison goods floorspace, which is equivalent to 467 sq.m net. Once again we also make allowance for inflow of expenditure totaling 25 per cent, following the same principle as set out above for convenience goods, which is equivalent to an additional 117 sq.m net comparison goods floorspace (25 per cent of 467 sq.m net). 3.21 Adding together the convenience and comparison goods element delivers in total a net foodstore of 2,252 sq.m net, or 3,465 sq.m gross. This is summarized in Table 3.3 below. Table 3.3 – Summary of foodstore capacity at District Council offices site

Floorspace sq.m Sub-total floorspace net sq.m net

Convenience goods

Baseline requirement (capacity in BRCA Zones 3 and 5) 1,335 1,335

Plus inflow from neighbouring areas (20% of baseline 267 1,602 requirement

Plus inflow from wider area (5% of baseline requirement) 67 1,668

(A) Total convenience goods floorspace 1,668

Comparison goods

Baseline requirement (35% of 1,335 sq.m net) 467 467

Plus inflow from neighbouring areas (20% of 467 sq.m net) 93 561

Plus inflow from wider area (5% of 467 sq.m net) 23 585

(B) Total comparison goods floorspace 585

Total net floorspace (A+B) 2,252

Conversion to gross floorspace (65% gross: net ratio) 3,465

Final Report | May 2011 11 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

4 CONCLUSIONS 4.1 This report has set out the retail case for the development of a foodstore at the site of the Bolsover District Council offices at Oxcroft Lane, Bolsover. The report forms a response to Task 1 of the Council’s study brief. Tasks 2 and 3 are considered in the transport appraisal prepared by Peter Brett Associates, which forms Appendix 2 to this study. 4.2 It is considered that there is a strong case for the delivery of additional large-format convenience floorspace in Bolsover, owing to the lack of consumer choice in Bolsover town centre at present, and evidence of significant expenditure leakage to foodstores up to seven miles away. 4.3 Our assessment indicates that when allowance is made for significant local uplift in market share, together with inflow from outside the district and an element of non-food floorspace, that there is scope for a foodstore on the Oxcroft Lane site of some 3,500 sq m gross. We are confident that a case can be made that such a scheme complies with the key tests for new development set out in PPS4 and tests EC15 (sequential approach) and EC16 (impact) in particular.

Final Report | May 2011 12 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

APPENDIX 1

Quantitative capacity assessment (BRCA Zones 3 and 5 only)

Final Report | May 2011

Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

Table A1 – Summary of quantitative need (BRCA Zones 3 to 5 only), assuming static expenditure retention at 47 per cent. Change

2010- 2016- 2021- 2010- 2010 2016 2021 2026 2016 2021 2026 2026 Total population (Zones 3 and 5) 16,942 18,071 19,067 20,063 1,129 996 996 3,121

Total expenditure (Zones 3 and 5) 24.98 27.23 29.60 32.07 2.25 2.37 2.47 7.09

Total retained expenditure 11.69 12.74 13.85 15.01 1.05 1.11 1.16 3.32

Retained expenditure % 47% 47% 47% 47%

Leakage £m 13.29 14.49 15.75 17.07 1.20 1.26 1.31 3.77

Total turnover of convenience 11.69 12.74 13.85 15.01 1.05 1.11 1.16 3.32 stores

Claims on expenditure

Existing traders 0.00 0.18 0.36 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54

Commitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Impact on capacity £m 0.00 0.18 0.36 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54

Summary

Initial surplus 1.05 1.11 1.16 3.32

Claims on capacity 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54

Foodstore overtrading allowance 4.68

Residual 5.55 0.93 0.97 7.45

2010

Turnover per sq.m 11,773 11,956 12,136 12,320

Floorspace requirement for zones 3 and 5 (sq.m net) 464 77 79 620

Final Report | May 2011 Bolsover Oxcroft Lane - Retail and Transport Appraisal

Table A2 - Summary of quantitative need (BRCA Zones 3 to 5 only), assuming increased expenditure retention at 85 per cent

Change 2010- 2016- 2021- 2010- 2010 2016 2021 2026 2016 2021 2026 2026 Total population (Zones 3 and 5) 16,942 18,071 19,067 20,063 1,129 996 996 3,121 Total expenditure (Zones 3 and 5) 24.98 27.23 29.60 32.07 2.25 2.37 2.47 7.09

Total retained expenditure 11.69 23.15 25.16 27.26 11.46 2.01 2.10 15.57

Retained expenditure % 47% 85% 85% 85% 38% 0% 0% 38%

Leakage £m 13.29 4.08 4.44 4.81 -9.21 0.36 0.37 -8.48

Total turnover of convenience stores 11.69 23.15 25.16 27.26 11.46 2.01 2.10 15.57

Claims on expenditure

Existing traders 0.00 0.18 0.36 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54 Commitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Impact on capacity £m 0.00 0.18 0.36 0.54 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54

Summary Initial surplus 11.46 2.01 2.10 15.57 Claims on capacity 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.54 Foodstore overtrading allowance 4.68

Residual 15.96 1.83 1.92 19.71 2010 Turnover per sq.m 11,773 11,956 12,136 12,320 Floorspace requirement for zones 3 and 5 (sq.m net) 1,335 151 156 1,641