MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 2019 MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Monsoon Contingency Plan (MCP) is developed by the Office of the Provincial Project Co Ordinator (Water Sector) under overall guidance and supervision of Secretary Irrigation Department Governmet of Balochistan This MCP gratefully acknowledges the work of everyone that contributed in order to produce this documents. Special thankful to PDMA for support and its documents regarding monsoon contingency Plan also thankful to Mr. Abdul Jalil Assistant Engineer Irrigation Department and Mukhrtar Ahmed. 2 MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Balochistan province is one of the most vulnerable provinces of Pakistan which are prone to both riverine and flash floods. In Balochistan, monsoon flooding occurs almost every year. Recent disasters pertaining to floods (2007, 2010, 2012, 2013) has wrought economic pain and wide spread destruction in the province. The ongoing structural poverty experienced by many communities, as well as incomplete recovery of the 2010 monsoon flood- affected districts; pose even greater vulnerability risk to the potential future flooding. Even a moderate flooding could have devastating effects on some of the communities. The lessons learnt from past disasters (2005, 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2013 floods) call for quick and effective actions to control the situation and above all save lives. However, effective action depends on the existence of ready-made and well tested contingency plans. Irrigation Department Balochistan like every year has agreed to prepare a Monsoon Contingency Plan (PMCP), which will enable government of Balochistan, and other stakeholders to be better prepared for the forthcoming monsoon season. As 21st century has already been marked by escalating economic losses and human devastation caused by natural disasters. Annual figures from 2000-2007 globally average out at 400 disasters per year in 120 countries affecting 230 million people and causing an annual average of $80 billion in economic losses. Disasters exact an enormous toll not only on lives, but also on livelihoods, homes, basic social services and community infrastructure. These losses materially affect the prospects of disaster-prone countries for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Disaster-related deaths occur disproportionately in low and medium human development countries. Investing in disaster reduction as part of development protects the achievement of the MDGs. Disaster reduction efforts not only minimize losses but also encourage development and promote achievement of MDG targets. Pakistan is at high risk of major disasters, including earthquakes, flash/riverine floods, droughts, nuclear disasters, as well as conflict. Among all disasters, Floods are ranked on top of the list due to its high frequency and human sufferings since last two decades. Heavy rains in the recent past years have triggered both flash floods and riverine floods in several parts of Pakistan resulting in huge loss to lives, widespread displacement of population and widespread destruction of infrastructure. Thousands of people have lost their homes and livelihoods. In addition, flooding in Pakistan is now a regular phenomenon that has adversely affected the economic growth of the country. MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 Keeping in view the past trend of disasters, its frequency of occurrence, damages and loses both human as well as capital, deliberations with relevant stakeholders, 15 districts as extremely vulnerable out of total 34 districts with regards to flood hazard. Besides, further identified the extremely vulnerable UCs in 15 extremely vulnerable Identified districts and the monsoon contingency plan shall revolve around 15 extremely vulnerable districts and its pre-identified extremely vulnerable UCs with anticipating two possible scenarios i-e Worst Case Scenario and Moderate Case Scenario to calculate the needs, identify the gaps and to mobilize resources in order to bridge that gap. 2. BALOCHISTAN OVERVIEW 3 GEOGRAPHY Balochistan is situated in the southwest of Pakistan and covers an area of 347,190 square kilometres (134,050 sq mi). It is Pakistan's largest province by area, constituting 44% of Pakistan's total land mass. The province is bordered by Afghanistan to the north and north-west, Iran to the south-west, Punjab and Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas to the north- east. To the south lies the Arabian Sea. Balochistan is located on the south-eastern part of the Iranian plateau. It borders the geopolitical regions of the Middle East and Southwest Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. Balochistan lies at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and provides the shortest route from seaports to Central Asia. Its geographical location has placed the otherwise desolate region in the scope of competing global interests for all of recorded history. 6 MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 The capital city Quetta is located in a densely populated portion of the Sulaiman Mountains in the north-east of the province. It is situated in a river valley near the Bolan Pass, which has been used as the route of choice from the coast to Central Asia, entering through Afghanistan's Kandahar region. The British and other historic empires have crossed the region to invade Afghanistan by this route. Balochistan is rich in exhaustible and renewable resources; it is the second major supplier of natural gas in Pakistan. The province's renewable and human resource potential has not been systematically measured or exploited due to pressures from within and without Pakistan. Local inhabitants have chosen to live in towns and have relied on sustainable water sources for thousands of years. 4 GEOLOGY The Balochistan province represents Triassic to recent strata with different tectonometallic and sedimentary basins like Balochistan basin, part of Indus Suture (Axial Belt), Sulaiman (middle Indus) and Kirthar (lower Indus) basins. Indus Suture separates the Balochistan basin (part of Neotethys) in the west and Sulaiman and Kirthar (part of Indo-Pakistan subcontinent) in the east. Balochistan basin represents Cenozoic flysch, accretionary wedge complex and magmatic island arc system, Indus Suture includes the igneous, sedimentary and metamorphic mélanges. The Sulaiman and Kirthar basins consist of Triassic to recent strata. Balochistan is the richest mineral province of Pakistan. The Chagai-Raskoh magmatic arc and Indus Suture are the richest metallogenic zones in the Balochistan province and also in Pakistan, however the Sulaiman and Kirthar are trying to lead in sedimentary minerals. Balochistan province has large proven reserves of indigenous iron, copper (associated some gold, silver, molybdenum), lead, zinc, barite, chromite, coal, gypsum, limestone (marble), ochre, silica sand, etc, small deposits of antimony, asbestos, celestite, fluorite, magnesite, soapstone, sulphur, vermiculite, etc. Some commodities are being utilized and some are being exported but most of the commodities are waiting for their utilization and developments.. Further water resources are two much and water is going into sea after creating flood and loss in the agricultural lands and population, so smaller dams are necessary due to population increasing. The first and huge gypsum deposits of Pakistan are found in Suleman foldbelt of Balochistan but not utilizing. Coal production is 58% of country is from Balochistan. The orogeny/tectonics, stratigraphy and fauna of Pakistan show isolation of Indo-Pakistan as island during probably Late Jurassic, or most probably Early Cretaceous to middle Late Cretaceous 5 DEMOGRAPHY Balochistan's population density is low due to the mountainous terrain and scarcity of water. In 2017, censuses figures show that the population of Balochistan has reached 12,344,408 out of which 6,483,653 are male and 5,860,646 are female. Balochistan is representing 5.9% of Pakistan's total population. This is the largest 7 MOONSOON CONTIGENCY PLAN 2019 increase in population by any province of Pakistan with the annual growth rate of 3.37, Majority of Balochistan population is Muslims. There are also Hindu and Christian minorities in the province. 6 CLIMATE The climate of the upper highlands is characterized by very cold winters and hot summers. In the lower highlands, winters vary from extremely cold in northern districts Ziarat, Quetta, Kalat, Muslim Baagh and Khanozai to milder conditions closer to the Makran coast. Winters are mild on the plains, with temperature never falling below freezing point. Summers are hot and dry, especially in the arid zones of Chagai and Kharan districts. The plains are also very hot in summer, with temperatures reaching 50 °C (122 °F).The record highest temperature, 53 °C (127 °F), was recorded in Sibi on 26 May 2010, exceeding the previous record, 52 °C (126 °F). Other hot areas include Turbat and Dalbandin. The desert climate is characterised by hot and very arid conditions. Occasionally, strong windstorms make these areas very inhospitable. 7 ECONOMY The economy of Balochistan is largely based upon Agriculture/Livestock and the production of natural gas, coal and other minerals. Balochistan has been called a "neglected province where a majority of population lacks amenities". Since the mid- 1970s the province's share of Pakistan's GDP has dropped from 4.9 to 3.7%, and as of 2007 it had the highest poverty rate and infant and maternal mortality rate, and the lowest literacy rate in the country, factors some allege