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Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability of the Lake Mweru Basin, Zambia

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Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability of the Lake Mweru Basin, Zambia water Article Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability of the Lake Mweru Basin, Zambia Peter Waylen 1,*, Christopher Annear 2 and Erin Bunting 3,4 1 Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA 2 Department of Anthropology, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456, USA 3 Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA 4 Remote Sensing and GIS Research and Outreach Services (RS&GIS), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA * Correspondence: prwaylen@ufl.edu Received: 25 July 2019; Accepted: 27 August 2019; Published: 29 August 2019 Abstract: Annual precipitation inputs to the Lake Mweru basin, Zambia, were computed from historic data and recent gridded data sets to determine historic (1925–2013) changes in lake level and their potential impacts on the important fisheries of the lake. The results highlight a period from the early 1940s to the mid-1960s when interannual variability of inputs doubled. Existing lake level data did not capture this period but they did indicate that levels were positively correlated with precipitation one to three years previously, reflecting the hydrologic storage of the lake, the inflowing Luapula River and the upstream Bangweulu wetland complex. Lag cross-correlations of rainfall to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole were weak and spatially and temporally discontinuous. The two drivers were generally positively correlated and induced opposing effects upon annual precipitation and lagged lake levels. This correlation became non-significant during the time of high observed interannual variability and basin inputs were prone to the vagaries of either driver independently or reinforcing drought/excess conditions. During times of high flows and persistent elevated lake levels, breeding habitat for fish increased markedly, as did nutrition supplied from the upstream wetlands. High hydrologic storage ensures that lake levels change slowly, despite contemporary precipitation totals. Therefore, good conditions for the growth of fish populations persisted for several years and populations boomed. Statistical models of biological populations indicated that such temporally autocorrelated conditions, combined with abundant habitat and nutrition can lead the “boom and bust” of fish populations witnessed historically in Lake Mweru. Keywords: Lake Mweru; Zambia; annual precipitation; lake level; ENSO; Indian Ocean dipole 1. Introduction The diversity and abundance of species available in the allotropic fishery of Lake Mweru are significant to local, national and international markets [1–3]. The serially autocorrelated nature of lake inputs resulting from precipitation and the large upstream Bangweulu wetland complex have profound effects on the delivery of nutrients and the availability of habits in the lake. Such temporal (hydrologic and nutrient inputs) and spatial (habitats) correlations are key factors [4] producing apparent erratic ecosystem behavior or “surprises” [5], with marked interannual variations in fish stocks. The lake and its contributing area constitute the most southeasterly tributary of the Congo basin. Despite the Congo’s impacts on deep tropical convection [6], continent-atmosphere interactions [7], ocean-atmosphere interactions and regional climates [8], little is known about the dynamics of the Water 2019, 11, 1801; doi:10.3390/w11091801 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2019, 11, 1801 2 of 14 climateWater 2019 over, 11, the x FOR region PEER REVIEW [9]. The Mweru basin lies on the margin of influences from the Atlantic2 of 15 and Indian Oceans [9], juxtaposed to the East African Highlands and Rift Valley, and beneath the climate over the region [9]. The Mweru basin lies on the margin of influences from the Atlantic and annualIndian passage Oceans of [9], the juxtaposed Inter-tropical to the Convergence East African Zone Highlands (ITCZ) and [10 ].Rift Despite Valley the, and growing beneath interest the annual in the hydroclimatologypassage of the Inter-tropical of the Congo Convergence [6,8,11–14], theZone peripheral (ITCZ) [10]. nature Despite of the the Mweru growing and interest the paucity in the of historichydroclimatology records have of resulted the Congo in its [6,8 climatological,11–14], the characteristicsperipheral nature being of subsumedthe Mweru into and larger the paucity geographic of regionshistoric (for records example, have [14 ,resulted15]). in its climatological characteristics being subsumed into larger geographicThe objectives regions of (for this example, paper were [14,15]). (a) to estimate historic annual precipitation inputs to the basin using stationThe objectives records of and this more paper recent were satellite-based(a) to estimate historic observations, annual precipitation (b) to compare inputs inputs to the to basin limited availableusing station lake level records records, and more (c) to recent identify satellite-base periods ofd changed observations, precipitation (b) to compare characteristics, inputs to andlimited (d) to linkavailable any interannual lake level andrecords, interdecadal (c) to identify variability periods to of potential changed large-scaleprecipitation drivers characteristics, of regional and climate. (d) to link any interannual and interdecadal variability to potential large-scale drivers of regional climate. 2. Study Area, Climate Drivers and Data 2. Study Area, Climate Drivers and Data The basin (Figure1), occupying 177,000 km 2 in the southeastern Congo basin, consists of a series of rectilinearThe basin blocks (Figure on the 1), westernoccupying rim 177,000 of the km East2 in African the southeastern Highlands. Congo The ba Chambeshisin, consists River of a series gathers waterof rectilinear from the blocks north on at overthe western 1700 m, rim disgorging of the East southwestwards African Highlands. into The 9000 Chambeshi km2 of theRiver Bangweulu gathers wetlands.water from The the Luapula north at River over exits 1700 from m, disgorging the wetlands southwestwards over the plateau into lip9000 before km2 of flowing the Bangweulu northwest to awetlands. long (100 The km) Luapula delta atRiver the southernexits from endthe wetlands of Lake Mweru. over the Theplateau delta lip occupies before flowing between northwest 1500 and 2400to kma long2 known (100 km) as thedelta Kifakula at the southern Depression, end of with Lake scattered Mweru.permanent The delta occupies lagoons. between Lake depth 1500 variesand 2 from2400 3 mkm in known the southeast, as the Kifakula to 37 m inDepression, the northwest, with sca nearttered the outletpermanent to the lagoons. Luvua RiverLake depth [16]. varies from 3 m in the southeast, to 37 m in the northwest, near the outlet to the Luvua River [16]. FigureFigure 1. 1.Location Location ofof thethe drainagedrainage basin feeding Lake Lake Mweru, Mweru, Zambia. Zambia. Water 2019, 11, 1801 3 of 14 Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 15 The dominant driver of intra-annual variability of precipitation is the migration of the ITCZ [6–11]. The dominant driver of intra-annual variability of precipitation is the migration of the ITCZ [6– To the south and east, the precipitation regime is highly seasonal, with as much as 70% of the mean 11]. To the south and east, the precipitation regime is highly seasonal, with as much as 70% of the annual total (Figure2) falling in the wettest triad (generally Dec, Jan, F). This figure drops below 50% mean annual total (Figure 2) falling in the wettest triad (generally Dec, Jan, F). This figure drops in the northwest, where the more bimodal pattern of much of the Congo basin prevails. The southern below 50% in the northwest, where the more bimodal pattern of much of the Congo basin prevails. African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) [9] also play important regional roles. The southern African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) [9] also play important The mid-tropospheric AEJ results from the contrast of hot dry (south) and humid equatorial (north) regional roles. The mid-tropospheric AEJ results from the contrast of hot dry (south) and humid conditions and steers African Easterly Waves and mesoscale convective storms (MCS) across the study equatorial (north) conditions and steers African Easterly Waves and mesoscale convective storms area [17–19]. The upper level exit region of the TEJ over eastern equatorial Africa during austral (MCS) across the study area [17–19]. The upper level exit region of the TEJ over eastern equatorial summer enhances surface convection [18]. The wettest conditions are associated with synchronous Africa during austral summer enhances surface convection [18]. The wettest conditions are associated southern displacement of the ITCZ and AEJ, and a northern displacement of the TEJ, conjoining over with synchronous southern displacement of the ITCZ and AEJ, and a northern displacement of the the basin [9]. TEJ, conjoining over the basin [9]. Figure 2. Estimated mean annual precipitation in the Mweru basin, 1925–1986, displaying box and whiskerFigure 2. diagrams Estimated of mean monthly annual historic precipitation precipitation in th ate selectedMweru sites.basin, The1925–1986, dots represent displaying the fifthbox andand 95thwhisker percentiles, diagrams the of whiskers monthly thehistoric 10th andprecipitation 90th, the boxesat selected the 25th sites. and The 75th dots and represent the white the horizontal fifth and bars,95th percentiles, the means. the
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