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Open Access Discussions Sciences System Earth Hydrology and and Hydrology 1 , and P. Trambauer 2680 2679 1,2 , F. E. F. Mussá 1 , S. Maskey 1 erences exist due to model limitations and complexity of the processes especially However, the available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African ff This discussion paper is/has beenSciences under (HESS). review Please for refer the to journal the Hydrology corresponding and final Earth paper System in HESS if available. UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education,Eduardo P.O. Box Mondlane 3015, University, 2601 Faculty of DA Engineering, Delft, the Av. de Netherlands Moçambique km 1.5, increased population and demand for water and degradation of land and environment. many physical mechanisms such as ElTemperature Niño-Southern (SST) Oscillation and (ENSO), Sea land–atmosphere Surface feedbackdrought adds monitoring to and the forecasting. daunting The futureclimate challenge models predictions of indicate of increased droughts based and ondi aridity global at the continental scale butfor large and North regions. continent is likelychallenge to is face likely extreme to and aggravate widespread due droughts to in slow future. progress This in evident risk management, drought in EastSoutheast Africa Africa, to (Horn name20th of a century few. Africa) The confirmsduring and available the (though each 2001–2003 limited) occurrence century, drought evidencein of with before in Sahel several the the Southern and extreme most Equatorial and and prolonged East multi- and Africa droughts intense regions. droughts Complex that and occurred highly variant nature of available from past centuriesring based chronologies and on written studiesclimate and change on oral models. the Most histories of and lake thedroughts future studies sediment based have predictions on analysis, become from instrumental tree- records the more indicateThe global frequent, that extreme intense droughts andin widespread of during nature 1972–1973, the and 1983–1984 lastprolonged stand and 50 droughts yr. unique 1991–1992 were recorded in were inin the continental the Northwest available recent Africa, past records. such 1970s Additionally, as many and the severe 1999–2002 1980s drought and droughts in (Sahel), 2010–2011 This paper presents a comprehensive review andinformation analysis on of the droughts available literature to and on build a geospatial continental, and regionalthe temporal and review variation country and level analysis of perspective of droughts droughts in occurred Africa. during 1900–2013 The as study well is as evidence based on Abstract A review of droughts incontinent: the a African geospatial and long-term perspective I. Masih Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/11/2679/2014/ 11, 2679–2718, 2014 doi:10.5194/hessd-11-2679-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 1 2 C. Postal 257, Maputo, Received: 31 January 2014 – Accepted: 3Correspondence February to: 2014 I. – Masih Published: ([email protected]) 6 MarchPublished 2014 by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 5 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ers ects ff ff ects human being ff orts in drought mitigation to orts by scientific community ff ff 2682 2681 ers great opportunity to conduct such an analysis. The ecting over 2 billion 2014). (EM-DAT, The total economic ff ff orts, long term planning and capacity building (e.g. Calow et al., 2010; Clarke et al., Understanding gained from detailed analysis of historic drought events o Drought remains a major disaster causing huge damages to people, environment ff Touchan et al., 2008;scientific Vicente-Serrano studies et do al., not 2012;of provide Vogel the et enough al., past geospatial and 2010). droughtnumber long-term The of events available temporal available at studies coverage global o major and focus continental of levels. thiswhere However, droughts paper the occur is most increasing frequently to andon cause review significant people the loss and of available life, damagesalso literature negative e lack to in necessary the the capacity and economy contextcatastrophic resources of and hazard to (e.g. Africa environment. make GFDRR, required Most 2011; progress Tadesse countries to et address al., in this 2008; Africa Vogel et al., 2010). increasing water demand oroutlook of change the (Mishra and currentin Singh, and applying 2010). future low-risk Moreover, drought and the events long-termnatural in plans resources the to (Touchan historic use, et conserve contextin al., and could this sustain 2008). facilitate direction water are The and very current other limited e and require further attention (Mishra and Singh, 2010; geospatial analysis ofimprovement the of past drought drought mitigationdetermining the and events spatial preparedness and and temporalof plans. variability their of This water causes drought can hazard resources, canhistorical and also the facilitate vegetation guide droughts vulnerability the in can systemsimpacts provide and on information society water onreduction, planning to resources new deficits projects drought. and and in reviewing theprovide The environment, water existing necessary ones. information Such demand which on analysis studies periodic can and nature is also of of droughts likely essential and their for relationship with drought risk Kundzewicz, 1997; Tadesse et al., 2008;Vicento-Serrano Tøttrup et et al., al., 2012; 2012; UNISDR, Vogel 2004 et and al., 2010; 2010; World Bankenormous and GFDRR, possibilities 2010). tomitigate impacts carry of out droughts (Vicente-Serrano better et al., drought 2012). management A sound planning science and based to 2011a, b; Logar et al., 2013; Mishra and Singh, 2010; Msangi, 2004; Sehmi and e 2012; Dondero, 1985; Falkenmark and Rockström, 2008; GFDRR, 2011; IFAD, 2010, mitigation of droughts acrossattributed the world. to The many lack reasons.time of in desired Drought terms level is of of a success itsof could complex onset, people be intensity, phenomenon, duration facing which and thisby geographical varies shortcomings hazard coverage. every The in capacity beprovide government short-term limited capacity (e.g. to relieve financial,is avoid and institutional adverse an install impacts and urgent long-term and compounded political)as drought early dire to mitigation warning need measures. and to There forecasting, progress building on resilience of various the fronts societies, of short-term drought relief mitigation such 642 drought events reported acrossabout 12 the million world people resulting and a indamages are huge estimated toll at to USD humanity 135 billion killing (Table 1). and economy, despite making considerable progress on monitoring, forecasting and Drought is a recurrentin climatic a phenomenon number across of themay ways world. lead such It to as a causingIt in loss also many of causes regions, life, huge , cropland damage health failures, to degradation, food issues the aridity shortages and environment andat which mass and desertification. migration. is a regarded The range as impactsmay of a of lose major geographical droughts their cause scales. are of livelihoodshealth For witnessed and issues instance, source and individual ofestimates the water, families on country’s subject or drought to economy impacts communities acute suggest may that, food be during shortages severely the and impacted. period The 1900–2013, there available were reduce the negative impacts of droughts anticipated in future. 1 Introduction Thus, there is a clear need for increased and integrated e 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | eld ffi 2684 2683 , global scale estimation of various drought related indicators 1 http://www.emdat.be/database 1 The main objective of this study is to review available information and literature and There is growing number of global data sets which can facilitate continental scale There are a growing number of studies addressing various drought related issues A recent global review on droughts and aridity by Dai (2011) indicated that large conduct a detailed geospatialcontinent. and We long-term examine analysis thepresent of major findings droughts causes across andintensity of the important African droughts and discourses reported oncauses. geospatial in drought the coverage), literature trends temporal and (including variability, frequency, desiccation (aridity) and analysis, along with growing numberare of EM-DAT data literature. base The few(e.g. examples Standardized of these and sources Evaporation2010) Index, and SPEI) remote (Vicento-Serrano sensing et data al., and products (e.g. Rojas et al., 2011). and many other studies aresections. Most comprehensively of reviewed and them investigate discussedof one in a or the more specific following drought droughtmethodological related event subjects developments i.e., or on the historic drought study and droughts indicators, causes early in of a warningplanning droughts, country and forecasting systems, or management regional impact andanalysis perspective, of capacity analysis droughts building. considering and past, None presentscale. of and drought future them perspective risk provide at the a continental reduction, long-term drought 2013; Traore et al.,et 2007; al., Zeng, 2012; 2003),(e.g. Dutra East Touchan et et Africa al., al., (Hornmore 2008 2013; of than and Syroka Africa) one 2010). (e.g.et and region There al., Anderson (e.g. are Nucifora, 2011; Calow few 2010) Naumann studies et and et which al., Northwest al., attempt 2010; 2012; Africa to Herweijer Tadesse cover and et al., Seager, 2008; 2008; Verschuren, Rojas 2004). These 2008; Govaerts et al., 2008; Kasei et al., 2010; Lebel et al., 2009; Lodoun et al., Unganai et al., 1998; Vogel et al., 2010), Sahel (West Africa) (e.g. Giannini et al., environmental impacts in thisfamine and semi-arid environmental region degradation resulting (desertification),drought episodes. especially in The during massive study the scalewater noted last and migration, that two changes growing in demand spatio-temporalimpacts for patterns in water, the of limited world. climate sources are of aggravating the drought for Africa. Most of theseClarke studies focused et on al., a specificJager 2012; region et i.e., Cornforth, al., Southern 1998; 2013; Africa Manatsa (e.g. Dube et al., et 2008; al., O’Meagher et 2000, al., 2002, 1998; Richard 2003; et Green, al., 2001; 1993; review on drought concepts andfor a critical drought evaluation assessment. of But thehistoric most the widely droughts review used remains and indicators limited onlyAfrica, in briefly the terms mentions study of few description only1940s, of of 1960s, enlisted them the 1970s the with and severe their 1980s. droughts main These in impacts. droughts Sahel For caused occurred huge during socio-economic 1910s, and focused on ariditycentury. changes One from of 1950 thedrought important to areas conclusions 2008 have of increased andwidespread this substantially provided drying paper during foresight is since the that for 1970seastern 20th the over century the and global Africa, and many 21st aridity parts attributed southernare of and to projected Europe, the to East northern continuously mid-high and increaseet latitudes. in South al. The the (2012) Asia, aridity 21st shows trends century. thatalarming However, study drought as of patterns usually She are projected. increasing Mishra over and last 60 Singh yr, (2010) though conducted not a as comprehensive scale droughts haveThis frequently review occurred briefly reported duringAfrica, few the of but these past does mega-droughts 1000 inworld. yr not North For provide across America, Africa, the the China theoccurred and detailed globe. focus during review was of 1970s on the and the historic 1980s severe, widespread droughts in and across West prolonged the Africa droughts (Sahel region). The study mainly 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | N), Horn of ◦ were accumulated for er as such estimates on 2 ff ected and economic damage. ff erent regions. For instance, EM- erences in intra-annual variability ff ff 2686 2685 ort has been made to conduct a compressive coverage. ff . The SPEI is a widely used drought indicator estimated based on 3 erences in grouping various countries in di ff http://www.emdat.be/database http://sac.csic.es/spei/home.html 2 3 The global data set on droughts from EM-DAT website The earlier studies indicate that the semi-arid and sub-humid regions of Africa are The rainfall depicts very high spatial and temporal variability across the African level estimates on droughtAdditionally, events, people a killed global andselected database a droughts on SPEIprecipitation was and potential used evapotranspiration tointensity data. and It further duration has of analyse the drought.temporal The some ability indicator variation to of is of monitor very the onset, suitable droughtis to primarily including study geospatial related the and to impact meteorological of drought global and warming. do This not indicator o literature sources weresearched studied from relevant in international detail, journalsAfrican (individual after Journals, journals donor and initial reports search skimmingexhaustive, and engines), though other of an sources. e The over list 500 of reviewed articles material isthe not available period 1900–2013. This data set provides country/regional/continental of domestic and internationalcommitment, resources, district-level existence capacity of and a ruraland timely infrastructure, and nutrition government fairly monitoring comprehensive system food (Belbase security and Morgan, 1994). 2.2 Data and methods The main data and(e.g. information sources published, for peer this and study non-peer are collected reviewed, from unpublished the sources). literature More than 100 to drought variesdrought per was country. much For higher instanceAfrica on and the the economic (Benson GDP impact eton of people al., of livelihoods 1998). and and the The food security lowestwere 1991–1992 during mainly negative compared drought attributed impacts to periods to in of a South 1982–1987 Botswana small and and 1992 largely accessible national population, availability infrastructure to manage resources and recover from disasters. Moreover, vulnerability are highly vulnerableother to reasons drought such owing as to poverty, high high climatic dependency variability on and rainfed also agriculture due and to weak humid) in theacross western the regions. part. There receiveswhereas most are of Sahel the rainfall distinct rainfall during is di October–, Most concentrated countries in during the July–August Horn of summertwo Africa : and Equatorial October–December period. East (short Africa rainfall regionsseason). receive ) The rainfall and in Northwest March–May Africa (long receives rainfall most of the rainfall duringthe most October–. drought prone regions (e.g. World Bank and GFDRR, 2010). These countries climate. The highest rainfallalong occurs with in west Middlecharacteristics. The coast African highest of countries variability ofunder and West rainfall West, is some Africa. East found countries across and Thesewithin the Southern countries a countries Africa, grouped country but have arereceives mostly (sub)-humid also have much important semi-arid climatic less to climate. note, Variations rainfall for (semi-arid) instance, the compared eastern to part the of Ethiopian Highlands (sub- the di DAT groups African countries intoother North, hand, Middle, many South, East regionalAfrica and studies between West are Africa. focused On desert onAfrica the and (Ethiopia, Sahel , (includes coast ), Equatorial countries rainforest,reference East in about to Africa, countries 18–15 West Southern in Africa. a The given special region is made wherevercontinent deemed (Fig. necessary. 1). North Africa region receives very low rainfall and have a desert 2.1 Study area This study focuses onis the whole also African presented continent. However, in analysis the and discussion regional and country perspectives. It is important to note 2 Materials and methods 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ected and estimated economic damage. ff 2688 2687 erence limits a straightforward comparison of ff ected and economic damage. Thus, aggregated ff ort was made to avoid duplication of similar studies and yet provide ff ects. Second, in the aggregation of the number of events, the method used by EM- A number of inferences are drawn from the analysis of the available data and Table 3 provides a summary of the drought events recorded in the EM-DAT data base ff Figure 2 shows the geospatial coverage of the three most extreme droughts occurred scientific evidence reviewed in this papergeospatial (Tables 2 coverage and of 3). droughts The have frequency,continent intensity significantly and during increased the across second the halfby whole of studies African the conducted 1900–2013 at period. continentalthe This scale regional inference (e.g. and is Dai, country supported 2011, level2011; studies 2013) Elagib (e.g. as and Quassou well Elhang, et 2008; as al.,2001). Kasei by 2007; et most Touchan The al., et of 2010; al., available Manatsa 2008, datasupports et this al., (though observation 2008; (Table Richard limited 2). et This in al., point is temporal further coverage) substantiated from by Figs. EM-DAT 2 also and 3. occurred during one year in manyshould countries be in properly a region examined, is especiallyregimes. counted when more In studying than the the once. scientific region This literature, withas regional similar one climatic and drought multi-year event droughtsthe (Table are 2). droughts often This given referred in di Tables 2 and 3. many countries (e.g. , , , ,the Zimbabwe period and South of Africa) 1900–2013, for patterns which for prohibits these formulating countries. centurythe The scale information countries. picture before Similarly, of 1960s no drought ison information not is number available available for of for mostvalues people many of of recorded killed these drought indicators, and which events a are a often used, give muchDAT lower and estimates many of drought users takes a country level perspective. In this way, a drought event along with the number ofThis people widely killed used and a datacaution base is provides required very whilethe useful using available information information it underestimates for the for total this a numberand of specific study. drought consequent However, purpose events per impacts. due country Generally to much several reasons. lower First, number of droughts is recorded for hydrological droughts andand the intensification impacts of these of droughts human are limited. uses of water on the assessment drought , geographical locationTable, and an key e relevantgeospatial findings. and While temporal preparing coverage.important this Another discourses important most considerationgrowing was number relevant of to to studies examine on thedecade. various drought The topic related available issues, of studies especiallymiddle during this cover the Africa most last paper. which parts is There of understandableare are as Africa, not in though a as this coverage region rapidly catastrophicmain is climate as low is subject in for humid of and the droughts other most regions. studies Meteorological followed drought remains by the agricultural drought. Studies examining 3 Results and discussion 3.1 Geospatial and temporal pattern ofThe droughts during summary 1900–2013 of the selected literature reviewed is presented in Table 2, indicating recurrent climatic eventSchipper, that 2008). is This originally pointof of caused drought view by by isthe EM-DAT lack in EM-DAT and glossary of general most considers rainfall agreementprecipitation. drought of Here with (Smakhtin as a the the a and drought material understanding is longa stated lasting deficiency used as event; in in an triggered a extendedprecipitation. this by period region’s of lack water paper. time of supply For characterised that by instance, is the result of constantly below average seen as aprecipitation. proxy The to detail discussion these onindicators, droughts comparison basic of as concepts various eventually commonlyliterature and they used (e.g. various drought Dai, are 2011; perceptions caused MishraSchipper, on and by 2008; drought Sing, UNISDR, the 2010; can 2004). Ntale deficit be In and in Gan, this found 2003; study in Smakhtin drought and the is considered as a temporary, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic aspects of droughts, though it could be 5 5 25 15 20 10 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | erences and ff ecting about 12 million ff er possibility of comparing droughts ff 2690 2689 3.90, respectively. The latter half of the − 3.74 and er great opportunity to identify these geospatial di − ff A number of researchers studied historic droughts in Africa based on lake sediment There is increasing availability of drought monitoring and forecasting tools for The geospatial spread of drought depicts large variation within a country or a basin, Most African countries are highly vulnerable to single and multi-year droughts when several prolonged periods of droughtaround during 200–300 the yr last ago three (Shanahan millennia, et most al., recent 2009). ones Comparing 1970s droughts in Sahel a single drought event was 12–16increased times to per 19 century before during the theduring 20th 20th century, 1999–2002, which century. whereas was The 1847 mostwith and severe PDSI multi-year 2002 values drought were of occurred identifiedis as seen the as driest single theattributed years driest to anthropogenic period climate in change. the last 9 centuries.analyses. Evidence This from shift the sediment to analysis drier of the conditions lake was Bosumtwi, indicated observed during 1900–2013centuries. This (instrumental comparison is era)century important with as scale African variability. those climateterm The displays witnessed high perspective work decadal in of on and They the Touchen droughts used et in past tree-ring al. recordsfor Northwest the (2008, to period Africa 2011) AD construct 1179–2002. (Morocco, provides the These studies Algeria a Palmer reveal that Drought and long the Severity frequency Tunisia). of Index occurrence (PDSI) of Horn of AfricaForecasts was (ECMWF). well But this predicted informationand by was mitigation not European of timely the Centre used drought,people for for which better (Dutra finally Medium-Range et preparedness caused al., heavy 2013). toll a 3.2 Past, present and future patternThere of are droughts few studies available to date which o decision making whichacross can the provide region real (e.g. TadesseVicento-Serrano time et et al., monitoring 2008; al., and Anderson 2012).still et forecasting However, al., limited of the 2009; and use drought Dutra could et ofavailable be al., drought promoted. these 2013; For monitoring tools instance, and in despite forecasting decision inherent systems, making uncertainties the in is 2010–2011 the drought in the climatic modelling o drought hot spots. For instance,identified hot a spots remote regions sensing at basedagricultural sub-national droughts. study level The depicting by most vulnerable higher Rojas regions probabilitiesand et identified of by Centre al. facing their in (2009) study Morroco, were: Tensift BraknaBahri in in , , Coast North and Darfurin Eastern in , in Sudan, Juba Kenya, Manyara, Samenawi Hoose, Tanga, Keith Juba ArushaKiruhura Dhexe and in and Kilimanjaro , Shabelle Southern Hoosein in in . Sierra Somalia, Leone, Kaabong Gbarpolu and in and Otjozondjupa beside regional heterogeneity.also This highlighted point by is2012; other clearly Mussá studies indicated et (e.g. by al.,2014). Anderson Figs. 2014; The et 2 Rojas al., increasingly and etanalysis 2012; available of 3 al., Moeletsi information global and 2009; and climatic and Rulinda data Walker, tools et sets (e.g. al., based global 2012; on SPEI Trambuer products) remote et and sensing, al., hydrological and occurred in Northern andthose Southern observed Africa in during Easternmost the and 20th Western vulnerable Africa century regions which (Tables arepatterns 2 are comparable exist generally and in to the considered 3). drought as However, episodesand the distinct mainly drought driven geospatial by inducing the and physical diverse temporal year nature mechanisms and of (discussed prolonged the droughts later climate are in moreIn common this contrast, in paper). Sahel East The compared Africa to multi- faces any comparatively other less region. prolonged but very extreme droughts. could be regarded continentalcovered in wide nature areas of as the they Africancentury spanned continent. were None over as of many wide the sub-regions spread previous droughts and and during intense 20th compared toseen them from (Fig. purely 3). hydro-climatic point of view. For instance, number of severe droughts during past 50 yr (1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1991–1992 droughts). These droughts 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | er by ff 2692 2691 erences in these predictions were attributed to model limitations ff Droughts in Southern Africa occur most of the time during the warm phase of ENSO Endfield and Nash (2002) described the discourse on long-term desiccation of the However, this observation require cautionNiño because periods, droughts i.e., as may not happened occur during during 1925–1926 El and 1997–1998. For the droughts region, although ENSO andcontinent. SSTs are regarded major influencing factors across(El the Niño). However, thisglobal does factors influencing not the happen droughtexamined always phenomenon. For as droughts instance, there during Richard et are 1950–1988during al. many in (2001) 1970–1988 other Southern were local Africa.1969. and intense They The and found El that widespread Niño droughts compared was to the those main during governing 1950– factor for droughts during 1970–1988. and Seager, 2008; Jury2008; et Hastenrath al., et 1996; al.,et Kerr, 2007; al., 1985; Richard 2013; Lebel et Vicente-Serranorevealed et et al., that al., al., 2001; there 2009; 2012; are ShanahanThere Manatsa Zeng, complex et is et 2003). array al., no of al., The unique 2009;droughts factors review set Tierney across inter-playing of of in the factors these responsible an continent. studies for intricate The geospatial manner. physical and mechanisms temporal causing variation of droughts di 3.3 Causes of droughts It is importantvariability which to is acknowledge quitescales that high in the at droughts, African intra-annual, atanthropogenic continent. inter-annual, Many causes first, decadal studies and that attempted areand century to could part investigate Terry, time 2010; be the of Dai, natural associated 2011, and natural with 2013; climatic Dutra droughts et in al., Africa 2013; Giannini (Caminade et al., 2008; Herweijer 10 studies which aremodels based on on future thesome climate predicted simulations more of of frequent atmosphere-ocean droughts, Sahel.uncertainties thus, global and no Some climate di consensus studies wasand observed. predicted complexity The of large wetter many physical conditions mechanisms governing and the precipitation trends. require caution in making regional or continental conclusions. Druyan (2011) reviewed region may receive more rainfall. Large uncertainties exist in these findings and thus that the discoursetriggered on by these long-term episodes desiccation ofdeterioration. droughts evolved rather Nevertheless, during than the underpinned this bysubject discourse in long-term period the on climatic current was drought desiccation research. merely pointed still The evidence out presented remains to in an the the previousthe important section increased second aridity half and ofet intensification the al., of 20th 2010; droughts, century QuassouRichard especially (e.g. et et during Dai, al., al., 2007; 2011; 2001). Dai Manatsa Elagibover (2013) et and central predicted al., Elhang, and likelihood 2008; of 2008; southern Touchan increased Kasei Africa et droughts during al., and aridity 2008, the 2011; 21st century. On the contrary, the Sahel African continent emerged duringof 19th the century. missionary Their documentsauthors study from is southern constructed based Africa a on (Botswana1815–1900 chronology and the and South analysis of showed Africa). intra-decadal that The 1831–1835, climatic 1844–1851, the 1857–1865, variability major 1877–1886 for multi-year and droughts the 1894–1899. occurred The period study in inferred 1820–1827, 1620 and 1760–1840 duringThese drought relatively episodes wet were more period severeBessems of than et recorded AD al. droughts in 1270–1850 (2008) theago (Little noted 20th extreme based century. Ice droughts Age). on inwestern the Equatorial Uganda, and sediment East Baringo Africa analysis in aboutand central of Bessems Kenya). 200 The et yr three al. authors, (2008), Verschuren lakes et comparedcultural their al. (Chibwera history findings (2000), with of and the east available Africa Kanyamukali evidence from and in the found consistency between two sets of observations. and monsoon had generatedVerschuren even et more al. (2000) severe investigated andon droughts prolonged sediment over droughts the analysis in period ofAD the AD Lake 900 past. 1000–1270 Naivasha to (Medieval Kenya 2000last in based Warm 1100 Equatorial yr. Period) East Additionally, was Africa. dry found The conditions period to were be found the around driest AD one 1380–1420, 1560– over the with earlier drought episodes, they concluded that these droughts were not anomalous 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 20 10 15 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 2694 2693 cient predictor of droughts in Southern Africa. They recommend ffi The analysis of droughts during 1900–2013 indicated that droughts have been In Northwest Africa, neither SST nor ENSO shows a clear relationship with Droughts in Sahel are caused by an array of complex processes and feedback Contrary to Southern Africa, region faces droughts during cold phase the last fewAfrica), decades, 1999–2002 for drought instance, the in North 2010–2011 drought Africa, in 2001–2003 East drought Africa in (Horn Southern of Africa a perspective on droughtsterm in analysis Africa of with theof the droughts. available aim information The on and study conducting scientificdata is literature sets. geospatial underpinned and and by analysis long- a of comprehensive the review EM-DAT and SPEI intensified in terms offew their decades. frequency, The severity droughts andwere that geospatial most occurred coverage intense in over 1972–1973, and the 1983–1984 widespread. last and All 1991–1992 of the regions witnessed severe droughts in shifting from crisis managementthe to historic risk droughts management. event could Thedroughts. significantly comprehensive There guide studies is in better significantly on planning increasingon and number mitigation various of of information aspects andand/or scientific of studies continental drought. scale However, these perspective. studies This do study not is provide a a first long-term of its kind to build such 4 Conclusions The climate ofDroughts African are continent recurrent featuresone exhibits varying or large more from years. geospatial failure Thewell of vulnerability and as to due temporal droughts to in is poverty,Therefore, variability. one high and droughts because large season continue of dependency or to high oneconomy. up frequency incur rainfed The agriculture as to heavy and planning toll other to and factors. people, management animals, of environment and droughts requires a paradigm change so. drought patterns (Touchan etmechanisms al., causing droughts 2008). in Further this region. research is required to understand contribution in inducing Sahel droughts is debated and regarded as a minor factor, if concur that the recent(southward severe warming droughts gradient in of SahelOcean), the were southward Atlantic caused ocean shift by and ofTerry, the steady 2010; Inter ocean warming Dai, Tropical warming of Convergence 2011; the2003). Zone Indian Giannini The (ITCZ) et land-atmosphere (Caminade al.,change and feedbacks 2008; are through Kerr, also natural 1985;altering important the vegetation Lebel land factors. et and surface Anthropogenic feedbackhuman al., land mechanisms induced contribution green 2009; is cover house also in gas Zeng, seen emissionoceans land is as warming. also a use considered Despite factor. as recognition Furthermore, a change of contributory these factor to two anthropogenic factors, their relative mechanisms. Caminade andsummer Terry rainfall (2010) in stated Sahelsame is are: that warm when conditions below Atlanticfrom the that ocean a equator, favour north warming El lower albedo troposphere of Niño events, and equator and increased deterioration is decreases vertical of cool thermal evapotranspiration. vegetation and stability Most cover, the which of increases the studies on Sahel droughts of ENSO (LaNiña event was Niña). the main cause Foret of al. 2010–2011 (2007) instance, drought argue in that the Dutra theare Horn low of usually rainfall et Africa. in accompanied Hasternath this by al. regionanomalies anomalously occurs in during (2013) cold fast the waters westerlies indicated which in southeasternmechanism was the extremity that found northwestern of responsible for strong and the 2005 warm equatorial drought La in Indian the Ocean Horn of Basin. Africa. This Ocean SST) were named asNiño the alone main is causes. not Manatsa a et su that al. March (2008) suggested to that June El additional extreme candidate positive for drought Darwin monitoring Sea andAfrica. forecasting Level in Pressure Zimbabwe anomalies and Southern are ideal during 1950–1969, regional oceanic and atmospheric anomalies (e.g. southwest Indian 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | , last ac- 10.1016/0306- , 2012. , 2012. 2696 2695 , 2013. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/1998/03/ , 2010. 10.5194/hess-16-2893-2012 orts, though significant progress has been made in forecasting ff 10.2989/10220119.2012.687041 10.1111/ecoj.12042 This study was carried out in the scope of the DEWFORA (Improved , 1994. 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00558.x The available evidence from the past clearly shows that the African continent is very The predictions on future drought patterns based on global climate model ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes, Clim. Dynam., 35, 75–94,responses 2010. and views on carbonthe farming semiarid amongst Great commercial Fish livestock River andSci., Valley, Eastern game 29, Cape farmers 13–23, province, in doi: , Afr. J. Range For. n/a, online first, doi: drought in Africa:doi: linking availability, access, and demand, Ground Water, 48, 246–256, Natural Environment Research Council, UK, 30–31, 2013. management: the9192(94)90076-0 case of Botswana,preliminary Food examination, Policy, WorldD.C.: Bank 19, The technical 285–300, paper, World693685/impact-drought-sub-saharan-african-economies-preliminary-examination No. Bank, doi: WTP401, available 95cess: at: pp., 5 Washington, 2013, 1998. and Schultz, L.: Towards anEarth integrated Syst. soil Sci., moisture 16, drought 2893–2913, monitor doi: for East Africa, Hydrol. and strategies. increase due to fast growing populations, increasingland water and demands environmental and degradation resources. of Addressingcalls such for a daunting much and moreregional evident challenge serious bodies, and international committedpresent. This action organizations review advances from available and information communities,droughts and in governments, donors scientific Africa. understanding The than of material the presentedterm that in this drought paper is planning will be and very witnessedlevels mitigation useful to and approaches at guide at long- will country, alsoAfrica, regional and serve international continental community as and a donors guide to to (re)align governments their and drought regional related organizations policies in mechanisms). Their complex interactions induceand uncertainty in require the further drought e predictions tools and global climate change simulation models. likely to face extreme and widespread droughts in future. The vulnerability is likely to droughts in the past, about20th 12–16 events century. per Southern century Africa which also19th has faced increased century, several as to single indicated 19 and during by multi-year the droughts analysis during of missionaries’ correspondence. simulations remain uncertain for mostincreased of droughts the regions, in with central thefactors and exception responsible of southern likelihood for Africa. of causing There(e.g. the is ENSO large droughts number and across of various SSTs, complex regions wind of and the continent pressure anomalies, land-atmospheric feedback to construct droughtlake chronologies sediment before analysis indicated 20thand episodes century. even of centuries However, severe studies in droughtsdocumented the prolonged based in the past for on cultural decades over histories West ofring these and chronologies regions. Equatorial in The studies Northwest East underpinned Africa Africa, by indicated tree- which quite are a also number of moderate to severe and persistent droughts in Sahel during 1970s and 1980s. Few studies are available Couttenier, M. and Soubeyran, R.: Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa, Econ. J., n/a- Clarke, C. L., Shackleton, S. E., and Powell, M.: Climate change perceptions, drought Caminade, C. and Terray, L.: Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by Cornforth, R.: Weathering the drought in Africa, Planet Earth, Issue Spring, March 2013, Calow, R. C., Macdonald, A. M., Nicol, A. L., and Robins, N. S.: Ground water security and Belbase, K. and Morgan, R.: FoodBenson, security C. and and Clay, nutrition E.: monitoring The impact for of drought drought relief on sub-Saharan African economies – a Anderson, W. B., Zaitchik, B. F., Hain, C. R., Anderson, M. C., Yilmaz, M. T., Mecikalski, J., Acknowledgements. 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The 20thamong later last century nine half centuries. emergedThe as study theinvestigate driest uses climate tree-ringand of chronologies have North constructed to Tunisia PDSI Africa for for the region Algeriastudy period and mentions 19 AD droughts20th 1456–2002. occurred century The during compared toper 12 century to during 16specific earlier droughts years periods. or decades However, inare which they occur not1999–2002 given. is the Thecenturies. most multi-year severe in droughtThe the of study last 5 examinesin Sudan the using drought PDIfrom drought episodes rainfall index and estimated across temperature Sudan of for 14 theThe stations study period shows 1940s several toafter multi-year droughts 2008. 1970sdrought evidence. El and Niño isdroughts a in major Sudan. suggested driver of intensifying 2704 2703 , last accessed: 13 January 2014. during 1900–2013 1935, 1944–1945, 1948–1950, 1960–1961, 1974–1975,1991–1993, 1994–1995, 1981–1984, 1999–2003 1986–1987, 1945–1946, 1981–1982, 1999–2000 1920s, 1940s, 1945, 1999–2002 1985, 1990–1991, 2002–2008 http://www.emdat.be/database Summary of the selected literature reviewed in this study. Overview of number of droughts and their impact across the world during 1900–2013. ReferenceNorth Africa Quassou et al. (2007) Drought enlisted Morocco: 1904–1905, by 1917–1920, region/country/basin 1930– Touchan et al. (2011) North Africa: Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Touchan et al. (2008) Northwestern Africa: Algeria and Tunisia. Elagib and Elhang (2011) Sudan: 1969–1970, 1972–1973, 1979– Continent # of eventsAfrica #Americas of people killedAsia # ofEurope people a Oceania 134Total 291 153 42 22 847 143 642 77 9 663 389 1 200 002 362 225 11 799 711 271 660 1 707 836 029 69 505 391 15 488 769 2 163 090 007 2 920 8 593 034 019 44 251 865 50 471 139 25 481 309 135 427 906 12 303 000 Source: EM-DAT: The International DisasterDisasters-CRED; Database. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Table 2. Table 1. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Remarks The studyprovide reviews a drought criticalused evaluation concepts of indicators and But most for the widely reviewdescription drought remains of the limited assessment. historicbriefly in droughts mentions terms and few of only impacts of and them recommends with further their workdirection. in main this Catch case sites inland Mali, surface processes and and Beninnamics. atmospheric on This will dy- help to betterinteractions understand the betweenand atmospheric, terrestrial oceanic understanding systems and prediction of enabling rainfallregion. in this aThe better study indicates thatof the Sahel severe droughts incontext 1970s of past is threeis not millennia capable and anomalous monsoon of indroughts. longer The the findings are and based on moreanalysis sediment from sever Lake Bosumtwi future in Ghana. 1960s but thementioned. exact The drought studythe years focuses existing are on evidence reviewing not onin causes Sahel. of The droughts studyof various shows factors that are responsible combination in of droughts Sahel andand thus are could not notTherefore, be combination yet adequately of fully predicted. predictions, improved sensible understood climatic landgreen use practices house and very gas important for emission the future reductions of this are region. Remarks shift of the warmestwarming SSTs in in the the Indian . and 21st century. Some studies say wetdry and conditions. some during 1970s and 1980smodels. using The global results climate suggest thatthese the droughts origin is of global into scale the and external region.to These droughts warming arethe attributed of pacific and Indian tropical Oceans,on superimposed oceans, an especially enhancedcompared to warming the Northern ofevident Hemisphere the in most southern Atlantic.driven Land by surfaceanthropogenic precipitation activities, changes, may changesamplify have these and acted droughts. to also Using rainfall datasity, of extent 1961 andestimated to using recurrence 2005, SPI frequency1983–1984 inten- as was a drought drought wasering indicator. 90 most % of severelake the recorded cov- lowest basin flows area.study during show Akosomombo that 1983. dry The yearsfrequent have become and more occur atcoverage shorter of intervals. drought Areal has also increased. 2706 2705 Sahel drought during 1900–2013 1970s, 1980s Ghana, Mali,1984, 1992, . 2001. 1961, 1970, 1983, during 1900–2013 Continued. Continued. Druyan (2011)Giannini et al. West (2008) Africa-Sahel. 1970s, 1980s West Africa, Sahel. 1970s, 1980s No trend in future The study droughts investigates in the Sahel droughts in in Sahel late Kasei et al. (2010) West Africa, Volta Basin. , ReferenceWest Africa Dai (2011) Drought enlisted by region/country/basin West Africa, Sahel. 1970s, 1980s These droughts were attributed to southward Lebel et al. (2009) West Africa, Sahel. 1970s, 1980sShanahan et al. (2009) A wealth of West Africa, data Lake Bosumtwi, is Ghana. 1970s collected under AMMA- Zeng (2003) West Africa, Sahel. Late 1960s onward. The study shows lower rainfall in Sahel since ReferenceMishra and Singh (2010) West Africa, Sahel. 1910s, 1940s, 1960s, Drought enlisted by region/country/basin Table 2. Table 2. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | erent indicators ff erent drought results. SPI was ff orts by international and regional ected. ff ff cient predictor of droughts and show ffi Remarks The studyof demonstrated remotelymodeling sensed the for data trackingseverity usefulness and of drought. the hydrological progressionThe study shows and that droughtfailure was of caused by rainfall(short in rainfall) both and October–December March–Mayseasons. (long The rainfall) droughtNina was conditions. This attributed droughtcasting to by was the La well ECMWF forecasting fore- system. in the west and acceleratedanomalies westerlies (wind) and compared thedrought performance severity ofMooley Index Palmer index (BMI)cipitation and (PDSI), Standardized Indexmay Pre- Bhalme- (SPI). yield di Di recommended for East Africa region. Analyzed spatial propagationdrought during of 2005 to vegetative using April 2006 10 daydrought NOAA reached peak in AVHRR January 2006. images. The ing past 60 yr.Indian The Ocean study SSTs are concluded theon that primary East the influence African rainfall overperhaps multidecadel longer and timescales. Remarks The case study highlightof the the salient relatively features successfulment drought experience in manage- Botswana. The study identifiedbased droughts on SPI in estimationaveraged Zimbabwe from rainfall the for regionally The the moderate period to 1900–2000. here, severe droughts with are 1991–1992 noted drought as the of mostindicate extreme the that ENSOa 20th (El su century. Niño)that The alone March to is study Sea June not extreme Level positiveadditional Darwin Pressure candidate anomalies forand drought forecasting are in monitoring Africa. ideal Zimbabwe and Southern Information on drought yearscountry and respective isfocused on not analyzingment given. the e drought Theorganizations, manage- national study institutions and NGOs and mainly communities.need The of study adopting peoplemeasures stressed centered and mitigation the action calling as the for successsouth lies and informed those with in people global theThe in north. the main focuswhether of groundwater theemergency can study is be sourcesevere to used droughts of analyze in as the waterThe an Crocodile study catchment. in usedindicators cases the to of SPIhydrological droughts, and identify respectively. It SRIthat implies meteorological drought the 1992–1995 and severe one drought in was theand last the lower 70 yr areas most where ofmost the the a upper catchments were the 2707 2708 during 1900–2013 Somalia and Kenya Somalia Tanzania, Uganda. 2005–2006 during 1900–2013 1982–1987, 1991–1992. 1911–1916,1963–1964, 1926–1927,1986–1987, 1991–1992 1972–1973, 1941–1942, 1982–1984, 1918, 1921–1922, 1925, 1929, 1933–1934, 1939–1940, 1953, 1969, 1972–1973, 1976, 1980–1982, 1984–1985 1945, 1951, 1958,1983–1984, 1992–95 1966, and 2003–04 1970/71, 1978, Continued. Continued. Reference Drought enlisted by region/country/basin Southern Africa Belbase and Morgan (1994) Southern Africa: Botswana. 1978–1979, Manatsa et al. (2008) Southern Africa: Zimbabwe: 1902–1903, Msangi (2004). Southern Africa. 1902, 1909–1911, 1917– Mussá et al. (2014) South Africa: Crocodile River catchment. Dutra et al. (2013) HornHastenrath of and Africa: Polzin (2007) 2010–2011 in Ethiopia and East Africa. Kenya. 2005Ntale and Gan (2003) East Africa. Kenya and Tanzania. 1949–50. The study reviewed various Drought drought indicators was attributed to increased pressure East Africa Anderson et al. (2012) East Africa: 2010–2011 drought in Ethiopia, Reference Drought enlisted by region/country/basin Rulinda et al. (2012) East Africa. , Kenya, , Tierney et al. (2013) East Africa, Horn of Africa. 2010–2011 This drought was regarded as the worst dur- Table 2. Table 2. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | er during droughts by increasing ff Remarks Droughts were not referredstudy per focused country. on The 1950–1988 analyzing droughts during during January–March. Droughts during rainfall 1970–1988 period period were intensepared to and those during 1950–1969. widespreadwas The ENSO com- the mainduring governing factor 1970–1988 forwhereas, droughts regional (though oceanicanomalies and not atmospheric (e.g.SST) always), were southwest the mainduring Indian 1950–1969. causes of Ocean theThe droughts studycorresponding discussed area under these themgated at droughts level an of aggre- and theor African regional continent. estimates Country estimates are for the not period 1900–1999 available.The are SPI ENSO used. (El Niño conditions) wasto attributed 8during out 20th century. of Thecontinent area these of under theincreased, 12 African especially drought after droughts 1980s. This has occurred study significantly from stresses past the droughtin events need to future. of bettergeneral The learning manage management responseSADC options to countries practicedreference to are drought in indicated droughts. reviewed, and in special Remarks The study shows thegroundwater impacts resources of and droughts consequently on water on supply security. The communitiesinto enter spiral ofgroundwater water insecurity supplies whendemand shallow fail onmechanical and failures. remaining Declining access additional toand resources food access causes tobut safe the water laterin are usually drought interrelated, receive management.act less as Groundwater attention bu can the coveragerural of communities groundwaterhydrological and underpinned supplies socio-economic information. by to sound presented, though1980s droughts and in2003–2005 in are linked Sudan to Uganda civilbetween war. Overall, in drought during link and civil 1980s waras was weak. described and The studyoccurred examined in African the2010. continent major during TheVegetation droughts 1980– Health studyusing Index proposed remote (VHI),a that sensing estimated promising agricultural Pixed- indicator data and drought was able to monitoring (AVHRR) trackduring major droughts 1981–2009 is reportedliterature. in theThe selected droughts resultedages in and severe food famineof short- are moving mentioned. from Themanagement a approaches need crisis is stressed management anduse to the of risk the available droughtmonitoring and food tools security isthe recommended impacts of to droughts. reduce The study demonstratedment of how drought theon information develop- systems geospatial based static and technology, real time informationthe that could possibilities improve of drought combines mitigation in Africa. S). 1906, ◦ 2710 2709 during 1900–2013 in Ethiopia. 1991–1992 drought inMalawi, , SouthGhana. Africa and Zimbabwe, geria: 1999–2002; Sahel: early-midEthiopia 1980s; andEthiopia, Eritrea and Kenya: Somalia: 1987; South- ern 1984 Africa: and(most countries). 1982–1983 2000; and 1991–1992 1984–1985 (Sahel and East Africa),1993 1992– (southern Africa),of 2000–2002 Africa) (Horn Zimbabwe; 1990–1991;2001; Many countries: Kenya: 1984.1960s, Congo 1970s. River: Orange 1999– River: 1980s, 1990s 1916, 1924, 1933, 1949, 1970,1992, 1983, 1993, 1984, 1995, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2004. during 1900–2013 1968, 1970, 1973, 1982, 1983, 1987 1994–1995, 2001–2003 Continued. Continued. ReferenceMore than one region Calow et al. (2010) Drought enlisted by 2002–03, region/country/basin 2004–05 and 2005–06 droughts Couttenier and Soubeyran (2013) Sub-Saharan Africa. 1980s.Rojas et al. (2011) No country or year specific information Morocco: 1992, 1995, 1997; Tunisia and Al- Tadesse et al. (2008) Sub-SaharanVicento-Serrano Africa: et al. (2012) 1972–1974 and Ethiopia, Sudan and Sahel region: 1974, ReferenceRichard et al. (2001) Southern Africa. Drought 1951, enlisted 1960, 1964, by 1965, region/country/basin Rouault and Richard (2005) Southern Africa (South of 10 Vogel et al. (2010) Southern Africa. 1982–1993, 1991–1992, Table 2. Table 2. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | USD) 3 10 USD) × 3 10 × ected ( ff ected ( ff 2712 2711 events killed a 5 09 150 000 412 0007 30 710 000 0 900 100 584 09 4 443 900 3000 0 586 900 5 456 000 1500 83 000 events killed12 a 010 85 000 8 413 2908 0 40 000 0 0 6 1 258 000 011 700 0 132 00012 0 0 6 927 00013 0 85 000 7 398 907 59 500 23 655 058 0 1984, 1999 1997, 2001, 2004, 2012 1990, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2009, 2012 2005 1969, 1980, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2012 1969, 1976, 1980, 1988, 1990, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2011 1940, 1946, 1969, 1980, 1992, 1998, 2002 1969, 1976, 1980, 2002, 2012 1980, 1980, 2002, 2006 1976, 1980, 1991, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 1969, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2010, 2011 1940, 1966, 1980, 1988, 1990, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009, 2011 Continued. Summary of drought events recorded for 1900–2013 in EM-DAT data base. BeninBurkina Faso 1910, 1940, 1966, 1969, 1980Cape Verde Is 1900, 1910, 1920, 2Cote d’IvoireGambia The 1980 0 1910, 1940,Ghana 1968, GuineaGuinea Bissau 2 215 1910, 000 1940, 1971, 1969, 1977, 1 1980Liberia 1980, 1998 651 Mali 3 0 2 1980 0Mauritania 1910, 1940, 1966, 12 0 1910, 1940, 1965, 12Niger 512 000 100 1 0 0 0 1903, 1906, 1910, 0 0 0 Region/Countries Drought YearsWest Africa # of # of People # of People Economic Damage 94 170 012 74 500 255 507 354 AlgeriaMorocco 1981, 2005 1966, 1971, 1983, 2 12 1981, 1985, 1989, 0 0 TunisiaSudan 1977, 1988 1980, 1983, 1987, 2Central Africa RepublicChad 1983 0 1971,Congo 1990, 2001, Sao Tome et PrincipeZaire/Congo Dem Rep 1983 31 1978, 1 400 1983 1910, 1940, 1966, 0 0 1983 2 1 0 0 0 1 800 000 0 0 93 000 0 0 0 0 North AfricaMiddle Africa 18 150 012 31 153 400 900 100 25 3058 11 379 800 84 500 Region/CountriesOverall African Continent Drought Years # of # of People # of People Economic 291 Damage 847 143 362 225 799 2 920 593 Table 3. Table 3. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | USD) USD) 3 3 10 10 × × ected ( ff ected ( ff 2714 2713 events killed12 100 068 a 6 17 757 50013 50 000 237 19 673 4 15610 545 13 183 500 0 0 09 1945 12 737 483 0 6 0 4 975 000 0 1800 4 173 204 0 14 822 618 51 000 events killed9 a 06 8 399 000 1269 374 800 0 3 06215 500 0 402 367 1 188 008 6613 941 879 0 92 600 1966 47 200 0007 200 1500 500 3 515 290 21 578 0 702 0 1990, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 1996, 1999, 2003 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1999. 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 1988, 1990, 1996, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2011 1998, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2010 1995, 2005 2001, 2007, 2010 1969, 1976, 1979, 1980, 2002, 2011 2008, 2009, 2010 1996, 1999, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010 1983, 1987, 1989, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012 1983, 1991, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 2002, 2005, 2008 2002, 2005, 2007, 2012 Continued. Continued. NigeriaSenegal 1981 1910, 1940, 1966, Burundi 1 1999, 2003, 2005, 0 3 000 000 71 103 Togo 1971, 1980, 1989Djibouti 3 1981Eritrea 0 1980,Ethiopia 1983, 1988, 1993, 1999, 1965, 2008 1969, 550 1973, 1 000Kenya 3 500 0 0 1965, 1971, 1979, Malawi 1981, 0 1988, 2000, 5 600 000Mauritius 0 1987, 1990, 1992, 0 1999 1 0 0 175 000 Mozambique 1979, 1981, 1987, RwandaSomalia 1976, 1984, 1989, 1964, 1969,Tanzania Uni Rep 1973, 1967, 1977, 1984, UgandaZambia 1967,Zimbabwe 1979, 1987, 1981, 1983, 1990, 1981, 1990, 1998, Region/Countries Drought Years # of # of People # of PeopleEast Africa Economic Damage 122 523 561 220 892 229 371 900 Region/Countries Drought Years # of # of People # of People Economic Damage Table 3. Table 3. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | USD) 3 10 × ected ( ff 2716 2715 events killed6 a 6 07 0 08 1 344 900 3000 2 736 015 05 1000 1 114 200 500 51 000 17 475 000 1 000 000 1 630 000 1739 2002, 2007, 2011 1998, 2001, 2002, 2013 1986, 1988, 1990, 1995, 2004 2001, 2007 1981, 1990, 2005 Continued. Map of the African continent with country names and rainfall pattern. (Data source: LesothoNamibia 1968, 1983, 1990, South Africa 1981, 1990, 1995, 1964, 1980,Swaziland 1981, 1981, 1984, 1990, Botswana 1965, 1968, 1970, Region/Countries Drought YearsSouthern Africa # of # of People # of People Economic Damage 32 500 24 300 115 1 056 739 Fig. 1. ERA-Interim corrected with GPCPdetailed explanation.) v2.1, period: 1979–2010. See Trambauer et al., 2014 for Table 3. Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | , version 2.2 retrieved in , version 2.2 retrieved in 2718 2717 http://sac.csic.es/spei/database.html http://sac.csic.es/spei/database.html Geospatial coverage of selected droughts 1910–1911, 1931–1932, 1940–1941 Geospatial coverage of extreme droughts of 1964–1965, 1972–1973, 1983–1984 January 2014.) January 2014.) Fig. 3. and 1948–1949 indicatedSPEI by database 12 available SPEI at (October–September). (Data source: Global Fig. 2. and 1991–1992 indicatedSPEI by database 12 months available SPEI at (October–September). (Data source: Global