The Importance Of Climate In the Upcoming Federal Election: Six Key Ridings 13th August 2021 METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET The analysis in these reports is based on results of Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized surveys conducted between July 26th-August 5th, as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market 2021, 18 years of age or older, living in the federal research firms. Since our founding, we have been electoral districts of West Vancouver-Sunshine providing actionable and data-driven insights to Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Burnaby North-Seymour, our clients to help them make their most important Kitchener Centre, Toronto Centre, Parkdale-High evidence-based strategic decisions. Park and Malpeque. Mainstreet has an impressive track record in The sample sizes in each electoral district, along accurately forecasting election results in Canada and with their corresponding margin of error, are as the United States and has become a trusted source follows; for comprehensive market research, analysis and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky advice. Our insights are found in major media outlets Country, n=624, +/- 3.9% across the country. Burnaby North-Seymour, n=558, +/- 4.1% Kitchener Centre, n=601, +/- 4% Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member Toronto Centre, n=574, +/- 4.1% of MRIA, WAPOR and AAPOR and exceeds all Parkdale-High Park, n=600, +/- 4% Canadian and international standards for market Malpeque, n=280, +/- 5.9% research and public opinion research.
The survey was conducted using automated CONTACT INFORMATION telephone interviews (Smart IVR) and online In Ottawa: samples. In the case of telephone interviews, Quito Maggi, President and CEO respondents were interviewed on landlines and [email protected] cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in the surveyed ridings. In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research [email protected] and was sponsored by 350.org Find us online at: www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/MainStResearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch Voters Want Canada to Meet Climate Emergency, Willing to Shift Votes to Make it Happen
Climate champions could unseat incumbents in key ridings
Vancouver, BC – A summer of extreme heat, fires and flooding, along with the release of another sobering IPCC climate report are setting up an election where climate change could play a critical role. National polling has already shown climate change is a top election issue across Canada, and new data from Mainstreet Research confirms that in key ridings voters are deeply concerned about climate change, and could be willing to shift their vote because of it.
“This summer really has demonstrated that climate change is an emergency that we have to deal with here and now,” Amara Possian, Canada Campaign Director with 350.org said. “Voters are deeply concerned not just that climate change is happening, but that politicians in Canada aren’t acting at the scale and urgency that we need to tackle this crisis.”
Polling six possible swing ridings across the country, Mainstreet Research found:
At least 3 in 4 voters in all polled ridings considered climate change to be either very important or somewhat important. Even among Conserative voters climate change was a major issue. At least 1 in 3 voters would consider switching their vote to another candidate or party in order to elect a climate champion in their riding. Liberal identifying voters in particular expressed a willingness to change their vote to support climate champions.
This swing potential was most apparent in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country where 43% of all voters would switch and nearly 48% of Liberal voters would switch.
“These findings clearly show that climate change is a very important issue for voters no matter who they plan to vote for,” said Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet Research. “Candidates in these key ridings must offer voters a clear vision to tackle climate change if they want to be competitive in the upcoming election”.
With wildfires and heat expected to continue into the fall, and through a potential election, voters will continue to feel the impacts of climate change while parties vie for their votes.
“With COVID-19, people saw what an emergency level government response can look like, and we just haven’t been doing that when it comes to climate change,” Possian explained. “If candidates deliver climate action at the scale we need, with a moratorium on fossil fuel expansion and a real just transition plan, climate voters could rally behind them in a big way.”
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Contact: Cam Fenton, [email protected], 604-369-2155 If Banurn aelectionby North-Se yweremour held today, whichKitche candidatener Centre would you vote for? Burnaby North-Seymour Kitchener Centre
25.1% 26.8% 25.8% 25.1% 25.8% 32.8% 26.8% 32.8%
BurnabBurnabyy NorNorth-Seymourymour Kitchener Centr Centre e 6.2%6.2% 4%4%
17.9% 17.9% 13.2% 14.3% 13.2% 14.3% 22.7% 11.1% 22.7% 11.1%
MalpeqBeech,ue Liberal Shein, Conservative Hanson, NDP Another Candidate ParkdSaini,ale Liber-Haligh HeneinPar Thorn,k Conservative Zubi, NDP Morrice. Green Beech, Liberal Shein, ConservativUndecidede Hanson, NDP Another Candidate Saini, Liberal HeneinAnother Thorn, Candidate ConservativeUndecidedZubi, NDP Morrice. Green Malpeque Parkdale-High Park Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
19% 23% 19% 23% 34.5% 36.5% 34.5% 0.2% 36.5% 0.2%
2.9%2.9% 12.1%12.1% MalpequeMalpeque PParkarkdale-Highdale-High P arkPark
8.8%8.8%
7% 7%
14.3% 16.6% 14.3% 25.3% 16.6% 25.3%
Toronto CeMacDonald,ntre Liberal Sanderson, Conservative Nash, NDP West VaVirnani,c oLiberualver-Pham,Sea Conser Tov ativSke y CTaoyloru, nNDPtry Capra, Green MacDonald,Keenan, Liber Graleen Sanderson,Another Candidate ConservativUndecidede Nash, NDP Virani, Liberal Pham,Another Conser Candidatevative UndecidedTaylor, NDP Capra, Green Toronto Centre West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country Keenan, Green Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided
14.1%
24.3% 14.1% 23.1% 24.3% 23.1% 4% 4% 39.9% 39.9%
11.9% 11.9% West Vancouver- 2.3% West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country 2.3% TorTorontontoo Centr Centre SeaW estTo Vancouv Skyer-Sea Country To Sky Country
15.5% 15.5% 27.5% 19.4% 27.5% 8.6% 19.4% 9.5% 8.6% 9.5%
Ien, Liberal Sharma, Conservative Chang, NDP Paul, Green Weiler, Liberal Weston, Conservative Lewis, NDP Simpson, Green
Ien, Liberal Sharma,Another Conser Candidatevative Chang,Undecided NDP Paul, Green Weiler, Liberal Weston,Another Conser Candidatevative Lewis,Undecided NDP Simpson, Green
Another Candidate Undecided Another Candidate Undecided How Important Is The Issue Of Climate Change And The Environment To You When Considering Which Candidate To Vote For In The Upcoming Federal Election?
100% 6% 6% 90% 9% 12% 11% 10% 12% 6% 12% 80% 5% 7% 8% 8% 7% 70%
60% 26% 30% 24% 50% 29% 32% 28% 40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 45% 46% 48% 56% 51% 51% Burnaby Kitchener Centre Malpeque Parkdale-High Park Toronto Centre West North-Seymour Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country
Very Important Somewhat Important Somewhat Unimportant Very Unimportant Unsure Imagine If Local Polling Showed That Another Climate Champion Other Than Your First Choice Had The Best Chance Of Winning. Would You Be Willing To Change Your Vote In Order To Elect That Climate Champion, Or Would You Stick With Your Current Vote Regardless?
Burnaby North-Seymour 37% 30% 33%
Kitchener Centre 36% 31% 33%
Malpeque 39% 31% 30%
Parkdale-High Park 40% 31% 29%
Toronto Centre 40% 29% 31%
West Vancouver-Sea To Sky Country 43% 29% 28%
Yes, I'm Willing No, Stick With Current Vote Unsure Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted in the federal electoral districts of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Burnaby North-Seymour, Kitchener Centre, Toronto Centre, Parkdale-High Park and Malpeque on July 26th-August 5th, 2021. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR) and online samples. In the case of telephone interviews, respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones.
The surveys are intended to represent the voting population in these federal six electoral districts.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by 350.org
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.
As this survey used non-probability sampling to collect this sample, a margin of error cannot be applied to this sample. However, the margins of error for a probability sample of these sizes are as follows; West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, n=624, +/- 3.9%; Burnaby North-Seymour, n=558, +/- 4.1%; Kitchener Centre, n=601, +/- 4%; Toronto Centre, n=574, +/- 4.1%; Parkdale-High Park, n=600, +/- 4%; Malpeque, n=280, +/- 5.9%
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.