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Prime-Ary Perspective: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania

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Prime-Ary Perspective: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: IDAHO, NEBRASKA, OREGON, PENNSYLVANIA PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! IDAHO With polls closing at 8:00pm local time, in Washington we had to wait some time to see how primary voters in Idaho voted. There were two races of importance an Idaho, one Congressional and one gubernatorial. GUBERNATORIAL Last night, it was Idaho's governor's race that received most attention, as Governor Butch Otter also announced his retirement for the office he held since 2006. In a deeply-red Idaho, it was the heated three-way Republican primary race for governor that presented most uncertainty. Brad Little (R) Narrowly defeating challengers Raul Labrador and Tommy Ahlquist by taking just 37% of the vote, Idaho Lieutenant Governor Brad Little emerged victorious in yesterday's primary for governor. Brad Little was largely seen as the clear pragmatic and establishment choice, winning support from the state's business community, as well as junior Senator Jim Risch and outgoing Governor Otter. Little will face Democrat Paulette Jordan in November in hopes of keeping the governor's mansion under Republican control. Paulette Jordan (D) Taking 58% in a somewhat contenous Democrac primary against A.J. Balukoff, two-term Idaho state legislator Paulee Jordan will face Brad Lile in November. State lawmakers and establishment Democrats were largely supporve of Balukoff, having gained statewide recognion for a bid against Governor Oer in 2014. However, Jordan's progressive plaorm has won over endorsements from naonal groups such as Planned Parenthood, Indivisible, and Democracy for America. While chances of a Democrat winning a general elecon in Idaho are next to none, Paulee Jordan would become the first Nave American governor of Idaho if she pulled it off. ID-01 Four-term congressman and founding member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, Raul Labrador will vacate his seat at the end of his term in pursuit of Idaho's governorship. With a Cook PVI score of R+21, the Republican that emerges victorious in this primary will likely represent the district in the 116th Congress. Russ Fulcher (R) Russ Fulcher, the former Idaho state senator and unsuccessful primary challenger to Governor Butch Otter in the 2014 gubernatorial primary, defeated his Republican opponents taking 43% of the vote in yesterday's election. Fulcher was aided by several high-profile endorsements from organizations advocating for a limited government: the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. During the campaign, he also received a coalition of powerful political support, with endorsements from outgoing congressman Raul Labrador and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Fulcher will face Democrat Christina McNeil in November. Christian McNeil (D) Boise real estate agent and native of Mexico, Christina McNeil defeated her Democratic counterparts by a commanding 69% yesterday evening. McNeil is a single mother who is an outspoken supporter of investing in early education, DACA, and lower interest rates for federal loans. She will face Republican challenger Russ Fulcher for the Labrador seat in November. NEBRASKA As Nebraska has a noticeable conservative bent, there is only one truly competitive race that will gain attention in November- than of its 2nd district. However, there were also gubernatorial and Senate primaries. Jane Raybould, currently a Lincoln City Councilwoman won the Democratic nomination for Senate, so she will take on Sen. Deb Fischer in November. State Senator Bob Krist, who only joined the Democratic Party in February, will face off against current Gov. Pete Ricketts, who is running for reelection. NE-02 Nebraska's 2nd district has a recent history of being very competitive and flipping back and forth between Republican and Democratic nominees. It is currently represented by first-term Congressman Don Bacon (R), who defeated Rep. Brad Ashford (D) in 2016. This race is currently considered to be a toss-up with a PVI of R+4. Kara Eastman (D) In one of the biggest surprises of the night, Kara Eastman defeated former Rep. Brad Ashford to be the Democratic nominee for the 2nd District. Eastman is a social worker and currently runs the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance. She was, unarguably, the more liberal of the two candidates, and positioned herself in that light. Eastman endorsed the progressive concept of "Medicare for all" and also ran on abortion rights and decriminalizing marijuana. OREGON Last night in Oregon, all of the incumbents won their primaries, and, as there are not any open seats or expected competitive races this year, it was a pretty quiet night on the Congressional side. As such, we've previewed the gubernatorial election with incumbent Governor Kate Brown set to face Republican challenger Knute Buehler in November. GUBERNATORIAL In Oregon, incumbent Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, the first openly bi-sexual governor of a state, drew a pair of primary challengers but will advance to the general election with 82% of the vote. Brown won the governor's mansion after a 2016 special election after Gov. John Kitzhaver resigned amid a corruption scandal. The race attracted a crowded field of Republicans, despite 32 straight years of Democratic governors. Knute Buehler (R) Republican State Representative Knute Buehler ran a campaign critical of Governor Brown's tenure in office. Buehler lost to Brown in the 2012 secretary of state election. His platform focuses on fiscal responsibility. He advanced with 46% of the GOP vote, but it remains to be seen how much support he will garner in the general election. PENNSYLVANIA The Keystone State is one of a group of four states to hold its primary elections on May 15. We've selected nearly all of the congressional districts in Pennsylvania for coverage, considering with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision to redraw each of the districts to account for intense gerrymandering. SENATE In 2012, Senator Bob Casey (D) won reelection with 53.7% of the vote, becoming the first Democratic Senator to win reelection in the state since 1962. Sen. Casey outperformed President Obama in Pennsylvania by almost 2%. This year, Casey will be defending his seat this election cycle after being challenged by Republican Congressman Lou Barletta, the 4-term representative from Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional district. Lou Barletta (R) Barletta is a strong candidate running on a center-right platform, however he faces an uphill battle in the general election. Senator Casey has won five statewide elections throughout his political career, is well financed with lots of cash on hand, has the backing of labor unions, is a two-term incumbent, and has name recognition - partly stemming from his father, who served 8 years as Pennsylvania's Governor. Even though President Trump won the state in 2016, this election is rated "likely Democratic" by Cook Political Report. PA-01 First-term Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a tough reelection in November after the district was redrawn. Cook Political Report considers the race to be a tossup, and it has a PVI of R+1. Scott Wallace (D) Scott Wallace won the three-way Democratic primary with 56% of the vote. Wallace worked as a Congressional aide, first as counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee under then-Sen. Arlen Specter (R/D-PA) and then as general counsel on the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs. Most recently, Wallace and his wife have run a charity, the Wallace Global Fund. PA-04 The newly redrawn 4th District, which encompasses part of Rep. Charlie Dent's old one, now has a Democrac edge with a Cook PVI score of D+7. Madeleine Dean (D) Taking 72% of the Democratic primary vote, Madeleine Dean will face off with Dan David in what's anticipated to be a likely pick-up for Democrats in the House. Dean is a state representative from Abington and received financial support for her bid from organized labor and Emily's List. With the newly drawn district favoring Democrats, Dean could be the first woman to break into Pennsylvania's current all-male delegation. Dan David (R) Dan David jumped in the race to succeed the former leader of the moderate bloc of House Republicans. Entrepreneur and co- founder of GeoInvesting, an equies markets research firm, David has cited trade imbalances with China and inacon in Congress as motivating factors behind his run. PA-05 The 5th District will be an open seat in November. The District was represented by former- Rep. Pat Meehan (R) until he resigned from Congress because of a sexual harassment scandal. However, because of the new way that the districts were drawn, this seat is considered to be Likely Democratic in the fall and has a PVI of D+13. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) Mary Gay emerged from a crowded field of 10 Democratic candidates to win her party's nomination last night. Scanlon is an attorney who head's the pro bono practice of Ballard Spahr. She has worked extensively with nonprofits, including as the C0-Chair of the Voting Rights Task Force of the Association of Pro Bono Counsel. Scanlon currently serves on the Wallingford-Swarthmore School Board. PA-06 When the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redrew the state's Congressional districts, it greatly effected PA-06. The new district is one that Hillary Clinton would have won in 2016 by almost 10%. At least partially due to the new makeup of the district, Rep. Ryan Costello (R) decided not to run for reelection.
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