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VLT Feasibility Consultant Analysis and Report Final Report

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VLT Feasibility Consultant Analysis and Report Final Report 250 West 57th Street Suite 432 New York, NY 10107 hristiansen Phone: 212.779.9797 Fax: 207.779.9809 apital 170 Sawyer Road dvisors LLC New Gloucester, ME 04260 Phone: 207.688.4500 Fax: 207.926-5612 Email: [email protected] VLT Feasibility Consultant Analysis and Report Final Report Prepared for State of New Jersey Office of the Treasurer Prepared by: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Prepared for: State of New Jersey Office of the Treasurer September 28, 2007 250 West 57th Street Suite 432 New York, NY 10107 hristiansen Phone: 212.779.9797 Fax: 207.779.9809 apital 170 Sawyer Road dvisors LLC New Gloucester, ME 04260 Phone: 207.688.4500 Fax: 207.926-5612 Email: [email protected] Nancy B. Feldman, Director Office of Public Finance Department of the Treasury 50 West State Street P.O. Box 005 Trenton, New Jersey 08625 Re: State of New Jersey Office of the Treasurer “VLT Feasibility Consultant Analysis and Report” Ms. Feldman: The consulting team of Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA) is pleased to submit a report entitled “VLT Feasibility Consultant Analysis and Report” addressing the tasks enumerated in the State of New Jersey Office of the Treasurer RFQ issued March 14, 2007. We appreciate the opportunity to be of assistance. Sincerely, Sebastian Sinclair President Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................I II. VLT FEASIBILITY CONSULTANT ANALYSIS AND REPORT ....................... 1 SCOPE OF STUDY.............................................................................................................. 1 A. NEW JERSEY GAMBLING EVALUATION AND PERFORMANCE ....................................... 7 B. COMPETING GAMBLING FACILITIES IN NEIGHBORING STATES .................................. 22 C. EVALUATION OF COMPETING GAMBLING FACILITIES IN NEIGHBORING STATES ....... 24 D. PLACE OF ORIGIN OF NEW JERSEY VLT CUSTOMERS ............................................... 27 E. OPERATIONAL AND LEGAL FEASIBILITY OF VLTS IN NEW JERSEY ........................... 37 F. REVIEW OF OPTIMAL VLT SUPPLY LEVELS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS .............. 39 G. PROJECTIONS OF THE REVENUE POTENTIAL OF CENTRAL DETERMINATION VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS (WITH CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS) .......................................... 40 H. THE IMPACT OF NEW JERSEY RACETRACK VLTS ON ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS ....... 43 I. THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF SCENARIOS (A), (B), AND (C) ON NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS AND HORSEMEN............................................................................................................. 47 Machine Revenue Purse Supplements ...................................................................... 47 J. THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF SCENARIOS (A), (B) AND (C) ON THE NEW JERSEY LOTTERY ....................................................................................................................................... 49 K. RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF VLTS THAT COULD BE SUPPORTED AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS.................................................................... 52 L. VLTS AT LOCATIONS OTHER THAN RACETRACKS ..................................................... 54 III. APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX A: NEW YORK VLT MARKET DATA................................................. 57 APPENDIX B: MEADOWLANDS VLT WHITE PAPER ........................................ 58 APPENDIX C: HORSERACING HANDLE IN THE UNITED STATES................ 59 APPENDIX D: GLOSSARY OF TERMS.................................................................... 60 APPENDIX E: ABOUT CHRISTIANSEN CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC ............... 61 Table of Figures EXHIBIT A.1: NEW JERSEY PARI-MUTUEL HANDLE 1999-2006 ($M) ................................. 7 EXHIBIT A.2: NEW JERSEY PARI-MUTUEL HANDLE 1999-2006 ($M) ................................. 8 EXHIBIT A.3: NEW JERSEY RACETRACK ATTENDANCE 1999-2006 .................................... 9 EXHIBIT A.4: NEW JERSEY PURSES 1999-2006 ($M).......................................................... 9 EXHIBIT A.5: NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA, AND DELAWARE AVERAGE DAILY PURSES COMPARED TO NEW JERSEY AVERAGE DAILY PURSES (FROM ALL SOURCES) 2002- 2011........................................................................................................................... 11 EXHIBIT A.6: CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS ($M)................................................................... 12 EXHIBIT A.7: REQUIRED NEW JERSEY PURSES 2008-2011 ............................................... 13 EXHIBIT A.8: GROSS GAMING REVENUE FOR ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS 2000-2006 ($B). 14 EXHIBIT A.9: MONTHLY GROSS GAMING REVENUE AT ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS JANUARY THROUGH MAY 2007 ($M) ........................................................................................ 14 EXHIBIT A.10: COMPARISON OF YEAR OVER YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN MONTHLY GROSS GAMING REVENUE AT ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS JANUARY THROUGH MAY 2006-2007, 2005-2006, AND 2004-2005 ................................................................... 15 EXHIBIT A.11: ANNUAL GROSS OPERATING PROFIT AT ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS 2000- 2006 ($M) ................................................................................................................. 16 EXHIBIT A.12: QUARTERLY YEAR OVER YEAR PERCENT CHANGES IN OPERATING PROFIT AT ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS 2000-2006 ................................................................... 17 EXHIBIT A.13: NUMBER OF SLOT MACHINES/VLTS AT NEW FACILITIES IN MARKETS THAT COMPETE WITH ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS ................................................................. 18 EXHIBIT A.14: NUMBER OF NEIGHBORING STATE GAMING MACHINES ............................ 18 EXHIBIT A.15: NEW JERSEY LOTTERY DATA COMPARED TO OTHER SELECTED STATE LOTTERIES, FY 2006 ................................................................................................. 19 EXHIBIT A.16: NEW JERSEY LOTTERY SALES BY GAME COMPARED TO OTHER SELECTED STATE LOTTERIES, FY 2006 ($M) ............................................................................. 20 EXHIBIT A.17: NEW JERSEY LOTTERY SALES BY GAME AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES COMPARED TO OTHER SELECTED STATE LOTTERIES, FY 2006 ................................. 20 EXHIBIT A.18: NEW JERSEY LOTTERY PER CAPITA SALES BY GAME COMPARED TO OTHER SELECTED STATE LOTTERIES, FY 2006 ($M) ............................................................ 21 EXHIBIT B.1: MACHINE GAMING FACILITIES IN NEIGHBORING STATES THAT COMPETE WITH ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS ................................................................................. 22 EXHIBIT B.2: PROPOSED MACHINE GAMING FACILITIES IN NEIGHBORING STATES THAT WILL COMPETE WITH ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS........................................................ 23 EXHIBIT C.1: MAP OF CURRENT AND PROPOSED MACHINE GAMING FACILITIES IN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THAT COMPETE WITH ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS ............ 24 EXHIBIT C.2: IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL GAMING FACILITIES IN NEIGHBORING STATES ON 25 ATLANTIC CITY GROSS GAMING REVENUE ...................................................................... 25 EXHIBIT D.1: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF MEADOWLANDS VLT CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (A).... 31 EXHIBIT D.2: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF ATLANTIC CITY CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (A) ............. 32 EXHIBIT D.3: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF MEADOWLANDS AND MONMOUTH VLT CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (B)............................................................................................................. 33 EXHIBIT D.4: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF ATLANTIC CITY CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (B) ............. 34 EXHIBIT D.5: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF MEADOWLANDS, MONMOUTH PARK, AND FREEHOLD RACEWAY VLT CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (C) ............................................................. 35 EXHIBIT D.6: PLACE OF ORIGIN OF ATLANTIC CITY CUSTOMERS: SCENARIO (C) ............. 36 EXHIBIT F.1: ESTIMATES OF OPTIMAL MACHINE COUNTS FOR VLTS AT RACETRACKS UNDER SCENARIOS (A), (B), AND (C) .......................................................................... 40 EXHIBIT G.1: REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR CENTRAL DETERMINATION VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS ($M).................................................................................................... 41 EXHIBIT H.1: REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS AND ATLANTIC CITY CASINO REVENUE IMPACTS ............................................................. 43 EXHIBIT H.2: PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS FROM VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS ($M)................................................................ 45 EXHIBIT H.3: PROJECTIONS OF TAXES PAID ON GROSS REVENUE BY ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS FROM EACH SCENARIO OF VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS ($M) ....... 46 EXHIBIT H.4: PROJECTIONS OF VISITOR IMPACTS ON ATLANTIC CITY CASINOS FROM VLTS AT NEW JERSEY RACETRACKS ................................................................................... 46 EXHIBIT I.1: PROJECTIONS OF PURSE SUPPLEMENTS 2008 TO 2011 ($M) ......................... 47 EXHIBIT J.1: VLT IMPACTS ON NEW JERSEY LOTTERY SALES ($M)................................. 49 EXHIBIT J.2: VLT IMPACTS ON NEW JERSEY REVENUES TO GOVERNMENT ($M)............. 50 EXHIBIT K.1: ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF VLTS THAT EACH OF NEW JERSEY’S RACETRACK MARKETS COULD SUPPORT ................................................... 52 EXHIBIT L.1: ESTIMATED VLT REVENUES FROM A NON-RACETRACK VLT FACILITIES IN NEW JERSEY ($M) ....................................................................................................
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