790 FEDEEAL BESEEVE BULLETIN" OCTOBER, 1924
number of hogs was increased rapidly in 1922 as compared with 63 cents, the -average price and 1923, with the result that the supply of in 1913, After the summer of 1923 it advanced corn was reduced and the price advanced until steadily until the end of the year. Although August, 1923, when the average farm quota- there was a slight decline early this year, the tion was 87 cents a bushel. As the new crop market in June reflected the improvement in began to come to market in October and the prices of the other grains and the price av- November, however, the price declined and eraged 80 cents a bushel in August, the highest continued low during December. Early in price since June, 1922. Barley reached a low 1924 the market strengthened in response to point in November, 1921, and began to in- a heavy demand for corn for feeding purposes crease early in 1922, but the advance was and the price began to advance, although a short-lived and the price declined again in the pronounced increase was not evident until June summer of that year. Since September, 1922, and July, when the indications that this year's the price has been advancing fairly steadily and crop would be one of the smallest since before reached an average of 76 cents a bushel in the war caused a more rapid advance in price, August, 1924. The following table shows the average yearly PER 1 PER CENT price of the principal grains at the farm for CENT FARM PRICES (AUGUST, 1909-JULY, 19!^ =100 ) the four years preceding the war and for the years 1919 to 1924, and the average monthly 250 250 price from January to August, 1924:
FARM PRICES OF GRAINS
200 200 [In cents per bushel]
Wheat Corn Oats Rye Barley
/ 150 i - Average 1909-1913 88.8 62.9 39.6 72.1 61.1 1918-19 207.8 152.1 69.4 152.0 95.9 V 1919-20 222.3 150.6 78.5 142.9 123.8 / \WHEAT} 1920-21 184.5 64.1 53.8 143.6 79.1 1921-22.. 102.9 52.2 33.5 81.5 46.1 1922-23 98.3 75.6 38.5 67.8 52.1 100 V/ 100 1924 \\ J-COPN January 15 96.7 73.6 43.4 63.5 56.5 February 15 - 98.0 76.5 45.4 64.5 58.0 V- March 15 98.8 77.2 46.2 62.8 60.0 April 15 95.8 78.2 46.5 60.4 61.0 50 SO May 15 96.8 78.6 46.3 60.1 60.0 98.5 80.8 46.8 61.6 61.9 July 15 105.8 98.3 49.4 68.8 68.8 August 15 116.8 107.4 49.1 79.8 75.7
0 1921 1922 1923 The prices of fruits and vegetables reached which reached $1.07 a bushel in August, the a peak in May, 1920, when the index was 373. highest price since October, 1920. After the spring of that year the market weak- The price of oats, from a high point of $1.05 ened and prices declined until April, 1921, a bushel in July, 1920, declined rapidly and when the index was 124. In May, 1921, prices reached an average price of 29 cents a bushel advanced and continued to increase until the in November, 1921. Since that time it has beginning of the autumn months, when a slight advanced almost continuously, though slight recession was noted. In January they turned recessions have been noted each year during upward again and reached in May, 1922, the the harvesting and marketing season, and in highest level since August, 1920. Since May, August, 1924, the average price at the farm 1922, the prices have been declining almost was 49 cents a bushel, the highest monthly steadily, except when slight seasonal increases price since December, 1920. The price of occurred, and the price index in August was rye declined less rapidly than that of some the lowest for that month since 1922. of the other commodities and the post-war The following table shows in detail the low point was not reached until August, 1923, changes in the farm prices of the principal when the average price was 54 cents a bushel, fruits and vegetables in recent years:
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 1924
OCTOBER, 1924 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN 791
FARM PRICES OP FRUITS AND VEGETABLES which prevailed at the beginning of the plant- ing season of 1921, the acreage was reduced, [Cents per bushel] and this, together with an unfavorable growing Sweet season, resulted in a curtailment in production Potatoes potatoes Apples to 8,360,000 bales, the smallest crop since 1896. In the summer of 1921, when reports Average 1909-1913 68.0 85.5 >79.8 1918-19 . 126.2 149.8 139.2 indicated a smaller production, the price of 1919-20 203.7 157.8 183.6 cotton advanced rapidly, although it receded 1920-21 137.0 149.7 138.3 1921-22. ._ _.. 122.6 109.8 186.0 somewhat during the picking and ginning 1922-23 72.6 95.0 114.2 season of that year. In March, 1922, it 1924 advanced again and continued to rise almost January 15. __ 86.4 112.5 121.3 February 15 88.1 123.7 125.0 without interruption to April, 1923. With a March 15 .. . 87.8 129.0 129.1 cessation in general business activity in the April 15 J 91.1 140.4 129.4 May 15 91.3 139.2 131.3 spring and summer of 1923 and under the Tnnfi 15 100.7 138.9 159.3 influence of early indications of a considerably July 15 109.0 130.7 141.3 August 15 111.3 151.4 121.6 larger crop than in 1922, the price declined until July. In August the demand improved 1 Average, 1910-1913. and prices increased almost continuously to After reaching a peak in May, 1920, which January, 1924, when the highest price since the was relatively higher than that for any other summer of 1920 was reached. From January to leading farm product, the price of cotton March, 1924, the price declined, but in April and May the market strengthened. Since PER PER • CENT CENT that time the forecast of the largest crop since FARM F>R1CES (AUGUST, 1909-. 1920 has caused a recession in the price, ULY, 191"t = 1OO ) which is lower than a year ago, although it is \ 250 relatively higher, as compared with 1913, than / the price of any other farm product. livestock prices.—It has already been pointed 200 200 out that while the index of crop prices has ad- AV/ vanced almost continuously since the depres- COTTON/ sion and is approximately 75 per cent higher than in 1913, prices of livestock and animal 150 products have failed to advance to the same extent, and have remained near the levels of 1913. In comparing the movements of the 100 prices of livestock and animal products, it is significant to note that while crops reached a peak in the spring of 1920, prices of livestock and animal products were at their highest 50 level as early as the summer of 1919. After the peak in the summer of 1919 they declined rapidly until the close of that year, and con- trary to the movement of crop prices, the rate 1921 1922 1923 192^ of decline in the spring and summer of 1920 declined more rapidly than that for any other was much less than in 1919. In September, agricultural commodity and reached a low 1920, prices turned downward and continued point in April, 1921. From an average farm almost steady until the winter months of 1921- price of 38 cents a pound in May, 1920, the 22, when the low point of the depression was price declined to 9 cents a pound in April, 1921, reached. as compared with an average of 12 cents a While the chart on page 789 shows the pound in 1913-14. The chart shows the fluctuations of the prices of livestock and live- changes in the price of cotton since 1921. stock products at wholesale markets, another Just as the decline of prices was more rapid index recently constructed by the Depart- for cotton than for other commodities, the ment of Agriculture and charted below shows recovery in cotton prices has been greater the prices of meat animals on farms and ranges. than for other farm products. In view of the In comparing the two charts it must be re- exceptionally large stocks and low prices membered that the former is constructed
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 1924
792 FEDERAL EESERVE BULLETIN OCTOBER, 1924
with the average for 1913 as a base, while the classes of livestock. In May, 1918, the price latter is based on the average price during the of sheep was $12.32 a hundred pounds, five years 1910-1914. In comparing prices of and that of lambs $15.39 a hundred pounds. livestock with those prevailing before the war, A large volume of marketing occurred during it should be borne in mind that in 1913 the the remainder of that year and in 1919, and index of meat animals was higher than for a decline in prices began in the summer of any other agricultural group -and considerably 1918, which continued through the autumn higher than for either of the three preceding and winter of that year. In the early months years. of 1919 there was a slight advance in prices, The price of hogs reached a peak in August, lasting until April, but after that time prices 1919, when it averaged $19.30 per hundred turned downward again and continued to pounds at the farm, but by the end of the decline during 1920, with the exception of a year it had declined to $12.66. From Janu- slight seasonal rise in the spring, which was ary to October, 1920, it remained fairly of short duration, &nd reached the low point stable, but in the latter part of October it of the year in December. From January to began a decline lasting until December, 1921, May, 1921, the decline was not as rapid as and January, 1922. During 1922 prices for hogs were relatively higher than for corn, and in view of the large corn crops in 1921, 1922, and 1923 the supply of hogs was increased rapidly, with the result that the average price of hogs in 1923 was lower than in 1922, and this situ- ation continued until the summer of 1924, when the price of hogs began to advance. The aver- age price for hogs in August was $8.54 a hundredweight, the highest price since the summer of 1922. Prices of beef cattle at farms and ranges reached a postwar peak of $10.84 a hundred- weight, on the average, in May, 1919, and began to decline in June. In December of that year the price averaged $8.63, a level that was fairly well maintained during the spring and summer months of 1920. In September and October of that year the next significant drop occurred and prices declined constantly 50 until December, 1921, when a low point of $4.62 was reached. In 1922 there was some recovery in prices, which averaged $5.84 a hundredweight in June, and in 1923 and 1924 132! 1322 1923 they remained near this level. In fact, the average price for August this year was $5.67 during the preceding autumn, but in the sum- a hundredweight, as compared with $4.62 in mer prices dropped again and reached their December, 1921, and an average price of postwar low point 01 $3.84 for sheep and $5.24 during the four years 1910-1913. The $5.98 for lambs in October and November, price of veal calves reached a peak of $13.43 1921. In 1922 and 1923, under the influence a hundredweight in August, 1919, and declined of an increased demand for lambs and wool, to $12.65 in November of that year, near the prices of sheep and lambs advanced almost which level it remained until April, 1920. continuously and the average price for sheep In May of that year it receded again and con- in 1923 was $6.65 a hundred pounds, as com- tinued almost without cessation until the low pared with $10.38 a hundred pounds for point of $7.14 in December, 1921. In 1922, lambs. 1923, and 1924 prices advanced somewhat A comparison of farm prices of the different from the low level of December, 1921, and in classes of livestock in the years immediately August they averaged $7.94 a hundred pounds. preceding the war, with those for the years The prices of sheep and lambs reached 1919 to 1923 and those since January, 1924, their peaks much earlier than those for other is shown in the following table:
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis