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Making Downtown Bakersfield Economic Development Analysis June 1, 2016 CONTEXT

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Making Downtown Bakersfield Economic Development Analysis June 1, 2016 CONTEXT Making Downtown Bakersfield Economic Development Analysis June 1, 2016 CONTEXT DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPLOYMENT REAL ESTATE MARKET Office Residential Retail Hotel Context Phase 1 of California’s high-speed rail project will connect the San Joaquin Valley to the major cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco. Proposed High Speed Rail (“HSR”) System* San Francisco (2025-2029) San Jose (2025) San Joaquin (“SJ”) Fresno (2025) Valley Bakersfield (2025-2029) Los Angeles (2029) Phase 1 Phase 2 0 50 100 200 mi. N Source: Google Maps, 2016 Revised CHSRA Business Plan *Route shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 3 The Initial Operating Segment (IOS) will run from San Jose to North of Bakersfield in 2025, but can be extended with federal funding. HSR Initial Operating Segment (IOS)* San Francisco Temporary Station North of Bakersfield City of Bakersfield Los Initial Operating Segment (2025) Angeles IOS Extension (2025 with funding, 2029 without) 0 50 100 200 mi. N Source: Google Maps, 2016 Revised CHSRA Business Plan *Route shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 4 High-speed rail will give Bakersfield quick access to the other major metropolitan areas of the state. Proposed HSR System Travel Times from Bakersfield* San Francisco: 150 minutes San Jose: 100 minutes Fresno: 40 minutes City of Bakersfield Los Angeles: 70 minutes 0 50 100 200 mi. N *Route shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route; Travel Source: Google Maps, 2016 Revised CHSRA Business Plan time estimates assume intermediate stops, express trains have shorter travel times. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 5 The first phase of high-speed rail will put Bakersfield within 2.5 hours of just under 31 million people, the majority of California’s population. Population along the Proposed High Speed Rail (“HSR”) System San Francisco MSA: 4,594,000 San Joaquin Valley: 3,959,000 City of Bakersfield: 348,000 Kern County: 840,000 Los Angeles MSA: 12,829,000 0 50 100 200 mi. N Source: Google Maps, 2014 US Census Estimates *Route shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 6 The proposed HSR station alternatives are situated in Downtown Bakersfield near the junction of major transportation corridors. City of Bakersfield Proposed F Street HSR Station Proposed Truxton HSR Station City of Bakersfield 0 3.5 7 14 mi. N Source: Google Maps *Routes shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 7 The Study Area covers Downtown Bakersfield between the two proposed HSR station locations. Study Area Context Study Area Proposed F Street HSR Station Downtown Bakersfield Proposed Truxton Avenue HSR Station 0 0.5 1 2 mi. N Source: Google Maps *Routes shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 8 The Study Area is also at the confluence of major freeways and thoroughfares including SR-99, SR-58, SR-178 and SR 204. Study Area Context Study Area Proposed F Street HSR Station Proposed Truxton Avenue HSR Station 0 0.5 1 2 mi. N Source: Google Maps *Routes shown for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect final route. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 9 CONTEXT DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPLOYMENT REAL ESTATE MARKET Office Residential Retail Hotel Demographic and Employment Summary • Bakersfield and the San Joaquin Valley are seeing major population growth, outpacing the major coastal metropolitan areas of California. • Bakersfield has lower unemployment rates and a more diversified economy than the San Joaquin Valley. • While Bakersfield has higher incomes and educational attainment than the San Joaquin Valley, the Study Area does not. • The Study Area is a major employment center, and contains many local and regional government offices. • The main employment sector of the City of Bakersfield is healthcare, and this sector has also seen the largest nominal growth in recent years. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 11 Bakersfield and the San Joaquin Valley have experienced robust population growth since 2000, outpacing major coastal metros like L.A. Population Growth Comparison Population of Major Geographies (2014) (2000-2014 CAGR) City of Bakersfield 2.9% San Francisco MSA: (+122,000) 4,594,000 Kern County 2.0% (+213,000) San Joaquin Valley: 3,959,000 San Joaquin Valley 1.6% (+815,000) City of Bakersfield: 369,500* Los Angeles MSA 0.5% (+897,000) Kern County: 874,000* San Francisco MSA 0.8% (+470,000) Los Angeles MSA: 13,262,000 0% 2% 4% * Population estimate is for 2015, from the State of California, Department of Finance, http://kedc.com/community- profile/demographics/ Source: Google Maps, US Census Bureau HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 12 The SJ Valley and Bakersfield are projected to grow more quickly than coastal areas, and HSR may allow cities to focus that growth. 2014-2035 Projected Population Growth (CAGR) Total Future Population of Major Geographies (2035) City of Bakersfield* 3.0% San Francisco MSA: (+318,000) 5,357,000 Kern County 1.9% (+417,000) San Joaquin Valley: 5,618,000 San Joaquin Valley 1.5% (+1,501,000) City of Bakersfield: 687,000 Los Angeles MSA 0.4% (+1,271,000) Kern County: 1,292,000 San Francisco MSA 0.7% (+761,000) Los Angeles MSA: 14,534,000 0% 2% 4% *Future growth in Bakersfield was estimated using Kern COG’s 2023 growth projection. Source: Kern COG, California Department of Finance HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 13 Bakersfield has been experiencing rapid population growth in the last two decades, and this growth in projected to continue. Population Snapshot (2010) City of Bakersfield Historical and Future Population Projections Study Area • Population: 4,600 800,000 • Households: 1,800 700,000 City of Bakersfield 600,000 • Population: 348,000 500,000 • Households: 111,000 400,000 Bakersfield Urbanized Area 300,000 • Population: 524,000 200,000 Kern County 100,000 • Population: 840,000 • Households: 255,000 - 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: ESRI, U.S. Census, Housing Element Update 2015-2023 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 14 It should be noted that development in metropolitan Bakersfield extends beyond the City of Bakersfield’s boundaries. City of Bakersfield & Urbanized Area (2010 Census Population) City of Bakersfield Bakersfield Urbanized Area (348,000) (524,000) Population Density (per square mile) 0 3.5 7 14 mi. N • Bakersfield’s Urbanized Area is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as an area of contiguous development. • An additional 176,000 residents live in the areas surrounding Bakersfield. Source: Google Maps, U.S. Census HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 15 The age composition in Bakersfield is very similar to Kern County, while the Study Area has a slightly higher percentage of young people. • The Study Area has a slightly higher Age Breakdown (2015) proportion of children, those 25-34 40% year old, and those over 65. 35% • Younger people and empty nesters 30% have an increasing preference for 25% downtown locations, and this trend may strengthen in Bakersfield as the 20% downtown revitalization continues. 15% • Bakersfield can leverage this trend by 10% trying to create unique destinations 5% that cannot be matched by existing suburban locales. 0% Study Area City of Bakersfield Kern County Source: ESRI HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 16 Bakersfield is generally more diverse than Kern County, and nearly half the City identifies as Hispanic or Latino. Racial and Ethnic Composition (2015) 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% White Black Asian Some Other Race Hispanic or Latino Study Area City of Bakersfield Kern County Source: ESRI HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 17 The Study Area population has a larger proportion of renters and a lower median income. Median Household Income (2015) Housing Tenure (2015) $55,000 Owner Occupied, $48,000 13% Study Area Renter Occupied, 87% $22,000 Renter City of Occupied, Owner Bakersfield 42% Occupied, Study Area City of San Joaquin 58% Bakersfield Valley Source: ESRI HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 18 Bakersfield has higher levels of educational attainment than Kern County, while the Study Area has lower levels than Bakersfield. • Owing to a more diverse Highest Level of Educational Attainment (+25 Years Old, 2013) economy and economic hub, 100% 3% Bakersfield outperforms the San 90% 20% 15% 16% Joaquin Valley and Kern County 80% in educational attainment. 70% 62% • The Study Area has not shared 60% 57% 57% in Bakersfield’s higher levels of 50% 59% educational attainment, as those 40% who can afford to generally live in outlying areas with higher 30% quality housing stock. 20% 35% 28% 27% 10% 22% 0% Study Area City of Kern County San Joaquin Bakersfield Valley Bachelor's Degree or Higher Less than a Bachelor's Degree Less than a High School Diploma Source: ESRI HR&A Advisors, Inc. Bakersfield HSR| 19 Potentially owing to lower educational attainment, the Study Area also suffers from higher unemployment. Civilian Unemployment Rate (2015) The 2009 recession had a significant impact on San Joaquin Valley employment. 14.7% While the economy has improved since, most areas have not fully recovered to pre-recession levels of employment. Bakersfield, however, performed better 9.7% than most areas throughout the recession. 9.1% 8.3% January 2010 Unemployment Rate (Percentage Point Change from 2010 to 2015) City of Bakersfield • 14.9% (-6.6%) Kern County • 16.6% (-7.5%) San Joaquin Valley* Study Area City of Kern County San Joaquin • 17.7% (-8.0%) Bakersfield Valley Source: ESRI, BLS *Based on a weighted average of San Joaquin counties by labor force.
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