AAE 451, SENIOR DESIGN

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS REVIEW

TEAM 3: GOLDJET

DIANE BARNEY

DONALD BARRETT

MICHAEL COFFEY

JON COUGHLIN

MARK GLOVER

KEVIN LINCOLN

ANDREW MIZENER

JARED SCHEID

ERIC SMITH

Team GoldJet 1 System Requirements Review

Table of Contents

I. Mission Statement 2

II. Outline of NASA Competition 2

III. Key Assumptions 2

IV. Quality Function Deployment 3

V. Market Research 6

VI. Competitors 11

VII. City Pairs and Key Routes 12

VIII. Design Mission 16

IX. Economic Mission 19

X. Aircraft Sizing 20

XI. Summary and Next Steps 24

XII. References 27

Team GoldJet 2 System Requirements Review

I. Mission Statement

To design a profitable supersonic aircraft capable of Trans-Pacific travel to meet the needs of airlines and their passengers around the world.

II. Outline of NASA Competition

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate’s (ARMD) 2008-2009 University Competition calls for the design of an N+2 generation supersonic aircraft which would have initial operational capability (IOC) in 2020. More specific goals for the aircraft as outlined by the competition guidelines include:

 Cruise speed of Mach 1.6 to 1.8

 Design Range of 4000 nautical miles

 Payload of 35-70 passengers, mixed class

 Fuel Efficiency of 3 passenger-miles per pound of fuel

 Takeoff field length < 10,000 feet for airport compatibility

 Supersonic cruise efficiency

 Low sonic boom (<70 PldB)

In addition, entries to the competition are to identify the possible market for a small supersonic airliner, develop design and economic missions for the aircraft (including likely routes), identify technologies that might enable the aircraft design, and complete a conceptual sizing.

These guidelines proved to be a starting point for our aircraft. Deviations occurred as a result of assumptions made, a market study, and sizing based on historical data.

III. Key Assumptions

Our aircraft is designed to have initial operational capability in 2020, with entry into service by 2023. In order for the GoldJet aircraft to be successful, there are several precedents, both technological and political, that must be met.

1. There must be a change to the FAR regulations that prohibit supersonic flight over land. Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited in the United States since March 1972. Team GoldJet 3 System Requirements Review

Changes to these regulations must come in the form of a complete repeal, or a modification to allow certain supersonic corridors for flight over areas of low population density. According to a statement released by Carl Burleson, Director of Environment and Energy on October 16, 2008, it is anticipated that future regulations “would propose any future supersonic airplane produce no greater noise impact on a community than a subsonic airplane.”[1] A design with a sonic boom overpressure less than 0.3 lb/ft2 is a target of GoldJet in order to meet these new anticipated regulations.

2. A number of Supersonic Business Jet (SSBJ) concepts are currently in design and study phases of development. A change in supersonic flight regulations would pave the way for the success of SSBJ’s over the next 10-15 years, fueling technological innovation. Our aircraft will depend on this field of research for products like more efficient supersonic engines, and possibly composite materials with better temperature resistance.

IV. Quality Function Deployment

The first task in our design process was customer identification. We have defined our customers as anyone affected by the operation of our aircraft. Our primary customers are airlines and passengers. Other customers include the general public, maintenance workers, pilots and crew, and leasing companies (like ILFC). We then identified specific needs for each set of customers, combined them, and allocated a total of 100 points to the group to assign each a relative worth. Each need was assigned a portion of this 100 points and the final ranking of our customer needs can be seen in the table below.

Team GoldJet 4 System Requirements Review

Customer Needs Relative Worth Profitable Operations 22 Reduced Trip Time 11.88 Long Range 11.38 Marketable 9.375 Functions at Current 6.5 Airports

Passenger Comfort 6.875 Many Trips per Day 6.625 Affordable Purchase Cost 5.25 Quiet 4.75

Low Emissions 4.625

Easy to Maintain 3.75

Easy to Manufacture 3.125

Easy to Fly 2.25

Can Carry Cargo 1.625

Table 1: Customer Needs and Relative Worth

Our most important customers are airlines, and we feel that profitable operation of our aircraft will be the main factor in their purchasing decision. This is reflected in profitable operations receiving the highest relative worth of all our customer needs. The main purpose of supersonic flight is to reduce trip time. The time savings of supersonic flight increase with the percentage of flight at cruise speed. This means that the trip time is reduced by a larger percentage for longer trips than for shorter trips. With this in mind, the two needs receiving the next highest relative worth are low trip time and long range. The last need that stands out with a high relative worth has been labeled marketable. We have recognized that our aircraft will be the first commercial supersonic airliner since the Concorde and will be considered the cutting edge of aviation. We anticipate airlines using Team GoldJet 5 System Requirements Review our aircraft as a marketing tool to change their image, and the high relative worth of this customer need shows we will pay special attention to aesthetics throughout our design phase.

We next developed a list of technical engineering characteristics and requirements that will govern the performance of our airplane. We were interested in finding the correlation between our engineering requirements and our customer needs, so with the combination of the two we built a house of quality and set out to rank the technical requirements in order of importance. The House of Quality (HoQ) views the customer needs as a list of Whats to be satisfied. The engineering requirements are viewed as a list of solutions (Hows) to the Whats. Positive correlations between needs and requirements are noted and the requirements can then be ranked in order of importance to satisfying the customer needs. The HoQ is given in Figure 1.

Figure 1: House of Quality

After completing the HoQ exercise, the absolute and relative importance of each engineering attribute (How) as it related to the customer needs was determined. The rankings of our requirements (in absolute importance) can be seen in Figure 2. Team GoldJet 6 System Requirements Review

Relative Importance of Engineering Characteristics

0.120

0.100

0.080

0.060

0.040

0.020

0.000

Wingspan [ft] Meets FARs Quiet [Max dB] Cruise Speed [M] Stall Speed [mph] AcquisitionTO Cost Field [$] Length[ft] Block Time [min or hr] Landing FieldNumber Length of Passengers[ft] Operating Cost [$/flight] Cabin Volume/Passenger Turnaround Time [min or hr] Boom Overpressure [Max dB] Minimum Ticket Price [$/pax]

Cruise Efficiency [lbs of fuel/pax-mi] Downtime [maintenece time/flightSecond hr] Segment Climb Gradient [%]

Figure 2: Relative Importance of Engineering Characteristics

Our HoQ revealed the three most important engineering characteristics to be cruise speed, block time, and cruise efficiency. Cruise efficiency has a strong correlation with the profitable operation customer need while cruise speed and block time both have strong influence on reduced trip time. Cruise speed also shows a strong correlation with marketability, our fourth highest ranked customer need.

V. Market Research

In order to predict the profitability of our aircraft, it is important to consider what size of a market such a supersonic transport jet will reach. Our supersonic aircraft will have a higher operating cost than a similar sized subsonic transport jet. A higher operating cost will translate into higher ticket prices. We have acknowledged that as a commercial airliner this jet will appeal primarily to the wealthier section of the market. It then seems reasonable to expect that our primary market will likely consist mostly of those passengers currently willing to pay first class ticket prices on subsonic carriers.

Based on data collected from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics DB1B database for domestic United States flights, and using a first class ticket fare of $1 per mile flown, it was Team GoldJet 7 System Requirements Review determined that approximately 2% of airline travelers within the United States currently pay first class fares.[2] While this number includes only US domestic flights, we have assumed that a similar percentage of customers pay first class fares for international flights. Assuming that this percentage will project to the market at the release of our aircraft, 2% of travelers will be willing to pay the higher ticket prices required of a supersonic transport jet.

We also feel that the introduction of our supersonic transport jet will attract a significant amount of business from those who do not currently pay first class fares, but may be willing to pay higher prices for the added benefit of a shorter trip time and the novelty of flying at supersonic speeds. We assume these factors will appeal to an additional 1% of the total market. Therefore, the net market that we predict our jet to reach is 3% of all airline travelers.

Having identified a unique passenger base, those willing to pay fares comparable to subsonic first class, we must find a collection of routes and city pairs which both appeal to our passenger base and realize the benefits of supersonic flight. The criteria for a strong city pair include:

 Sufficient distance between cities so as to have a significant reduction in trip time with supersonic cruise speeds (at least 1000 nmi)

 Large volume of travelers to provide a market foothold

 Trans-oceanic flight or easy access to supersonic corridors

 Connection of large economic, social, and cultural centers

A collection of city pairs, historical data on traffic between them, and projections on total market size in the year 2020 allowed us to make an estimate on the total number of passengers per day, week, and year we expect to transport with our aircraft.

North America currently holds the largest share of world air travel by passengers/year. The Airports Council International (ACI), in its Global Traffic Forecast Report 2008-2007, projected North America to hold the third largest percentage of passengers transported per year by 2020 with Asia ranking first and Europe ranking second.[3] The report predicted a global market increase of 4.2% per year, a 6.3% increase per year for Asia and Pacific regions, and a 9.1% increase per year for China. We have recognized the emerging market in the Asia and Pacific regions, as well as the strong growth of the Chinese economy over the past decade. We feel that the most important Team GoldJet 8 System Requirements Review requirement for our aircraft is a link between the United States and Asia. The supersonic connection of these two economic powers will save businesses millions of dollars in executive travel time and trans-Pacific range will separate our supersonic airliner from our competitors. While accurate numbers of passengers between Asian city pairs was not available, special consideration was given to the markets originating in Asia, Europe, and other areas for which data was not readily attained.

The most reliable data linking city pairs and total passengers flown included pairs which had either the destination or the origin (or both) located within the United States. Data was collected from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics T-100 Database to determine the total volume of passengers which traveled between each city-pair for the 2007 calendar year.[4] This total volume was then divided by 365 days to determine the average number of travelers per day. We then took 3% of the daily volume to arrive at the size of the market our aircraft can expect to reach at each given city-pair. The 2007 market size was then modified to fit its 2020 projection as specified by the ACI Global Traffic Forecast Report 2008-2007 mentioned earlier.

The figure below shows the projected number of passengers we can expect to transport per day at specifically chosen city-pairs with either origin or destination leg in the United States.

Team GoldJet 9 System Requirements Review

Projected Pax Volume for Specific City Pairs (3% of total travelers)

500 450 Economic Mission 400 350 300 250 200

150 # of Pax per Day 100 50 0

New York - LA New York - Paris New York - Miami Chicago - London New York - Orlando New York - London Los Angeles - Tokyo New York - Las Vegas San Francisco - TokyoWashingtonNew DC York - SanParis - Amsterdam Francisco - Beijing Washington DC - LosLondon Angeles - Hong Kong

Figure 3: Passengers Per Day for Key US Routes

Now that a total US market size has been determined we can estimate how many aircraft will be needed to meet this demand. The number of aircraft needed to accommodate the projected passenger volume (based on the number of the seats in the aircraft) was found. The total number of passengers traveling was then divided by this number of aircraft to determine an average number of passengers per trip. This total number of passengers was then compared to the number of seats available. We assumed that each aircraft may only be sold if the city pair requiring the aircraft can fill it to 75% or higher. The number of aircraft sold will vary with the number of passengers per aircraft, and the figure below shows the trend between aircraft capacity and number of aircraft sold to routes beginning or ending in the United States. Team GoldJet 10 System Requirements Review

Projected Aircraft sold to US routes

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

# of Aircraft sold 30

20

10

0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 # of Seats

Figure 4: # of Aircraft Sold vs. Aircraft Capacity

From Figure 4 it can be seen that for any number of seats much greater than 40, the number of projected aircraft sold drops significantly. This drop at 40 passengers results from a higher percentage of flights falling below our 75% full threshold value, resulting in an airplane not being sold to this route, and leftover passengers willing to pay supersonic fares. This trend aided in setting the capacity of our aircraft at 40 passengers. Some noteworthy benefits of aircraft capacity at 40 passengers include:

 Commercial aircraft with capacity of 50 passengers or more require two flight attendants on all flights. An aircraft with 40 passengers only requires one flight attendant.

 Aircraft capacity at 40 seats sells nearly the maximum number of aircraft possible (increasing profits to the manufacturer) while maximizing the percentage of full capacity (increasing profits for the operator).

 This capacity maximizes the number of cities the aircraft can fly at by selling planes to small volume routes. Team GoldJet 11 System Requirements Review

We expect to be able to sell 81 aircraft to serve city-pairs with at least one leg in the United States. It was noted earlier that special consideration would be given to the quickly growing Asian and Pacific markets. We expect trans-Pacific routes to contribute to a large portion of our market, however we expect a greater contribution from flights connecting the Middle East to Europe and Asia, as well inter-Asia flights. We are assuming this portion of the market comprises an additional 50% of the US market (this value is believed to be a conservative estimate). Finally, based on our market research and on an aircraft that can carry 40 passengers we predict to sell at least 120 jets over the life of the aircraft.

VI. Competitors

As noted in the key assumptions section, our business plan is based on the success of SSBJs by the year 2020 which will broaden global acceptance of post-Concorde supersonic flight. We also make the assumption that some form of commercial supersonic flight will be permitted over land in the United States and abroad. With these assumptions in mind, and with our target markets, our main competitors will be SSBJs, subsonic airliners, and supersonic airliners.

The initial success of SSBJs will help to ease the entry of our aircraft into the commercial market. The most important role of the SSBJ will be to serve as the first modern example of an economically viable supersonic transport. While SSBJs will not compete in the commercial airline market like our aircraft, they will increase public awareness and acceptance with the idea of supersonic flight. Private supersonic flight will be the cutting edge of aviation. The high cost of initial SSBJs will reserve this luxury for only the wealthiest of companies and businessmen. The introduction of our aircraft to the commercial market will make this luxury of supersonic flight a viable option for a wider range of business and leisure passengers. The success of SSBJs will also lead to advances in supersonic technology such as structures, materials, avionics, and engines. The increase in public awareness and acceptance will help pass legislation for domestic supersonic flight all over the world. For this reason our aircraft will directly compete with SSBJs in the long range domestic market and the inter-Asia market. They may also directly compete for trans-Atlantic routes, depending on the final ranges of the SSBJs. Our aircraft does expect competition from SSBJs in trans-Pacific markets, as no companies have advertised an SSBJ with range over the required 4,700 nmi. Team GoldJet 12 System Requirements Review

Subsonic airliners may prove to be our aircraft’s largest competitor, as the current trend for subsonic airframers leans toward ultra-efficient high volume vehicles. Planes like the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 Dreamliner campaign heavily behind their low fuel consumption and high cruise efficiency. Short domestic flights make up the majority of air travel worldwide. The requirement that domestic supersonic flights be restrained to supersonic corridors will likely add to the range of each domestic flight of our aircraft. This increase in range coupled with the long time required to reach cruise speed will only allow our aircraft to cut trip time on long domestic routes and trans-oceanic routes. Supersonic flight and reduced trip time is also not a requirement for the large majority of commercial passengers, and ticket cost will remain the largest factor in ticket sales for many. However, the eventual success of our aircraft will take a portion of the market away from large subsonic transports, driving down their ticket prices and making their flights less profitable. This will in turn make our aircraft (and other small supersonic transports) more economically viable for airlines to operate.

Our aircraft’s arrival and success will spark investment in other commercial supersonic transport concepts. Several countries, including Japan, France, and Russia, have companies with existing supersonic concepts, though funding has been lax and development has stalled for the time being. Our airplane will serve as proof that commercial supersonic flight can be profitable, and competition from firms such as Aerospataile, JAX, and Tupolev is expected within two years of our aircraft reaching IOC. As mentioned earlier, initial airline investment in supersonic aircraft is expected to remain small until our aircraft or other small supersonic transports can prove their economic viability. This will leave room for companies with existing concepts to ramp up development and deliver their product while a significant portion of the market remains untapped. It will be imperative that we bring an efficient product to market quickly and provide proof of reliability before other competitors enter and grab market share.

VII. City-Pairs and Key Routes

We have focused on four main markets for our aircraft: Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, US Domestic, and Mid East/Asia. Our primary objective is to connect the major economic centers of North America and Asia. We are aiming to take advantage of the projected growth in Asian and Pacific markets by the year 2020 and we have set the threshold range for our aircraft at 4,737 nmi, the great circle route from Los Angeles to Tokyo, Japan. Tokyo is the closest major Pacific hub to Team GoldJet 13 System Requirements Review the continental United States and Los Angeles is the busiest international airport on the Western seaboard. Our design mission has been selected as Los Angeles Intl. Airport (LAX) to Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) with a great circle distance of 5650 nmi. This design range will put us in reach of Tokyo, Japan, Seoul, South Korea, Beijing, China and Shanghai, China. These major international airports and economic centers will supply a large volume of the business travelers willing to pay the first class fares typical of our airplane. All airport information was obtained using the Great Circle Mapper.[5]

Trans-Pacific Pairs Origin City Code Runway (ft) Range (nmi) Los Angeles LAX 10,599 - Destination Tokyo NRT 13,123 4,737 Beijing PEK 12,468 5,432 Shanghai PVG 11,154 5,650 Seoul ICN 12,303 5,209

Table 2: Trans-Pacific City-Pairs

Another major market arises from Dubai, United Arab Emirates with Emirates Airline. Emirates operates a fleet of long range luxury airliners that cater to a very wealthy passenger base. The seclusion of the Middle East from other major economic powers lends itself to the long range of their fleet. Emirates currently holds the one of the largest orders for the Airbus A380 with 58 planes expected by 2012. Emirates has a history of purchasing capstone aircraft and outfitting them with luxurious interiors and we feel their business plan will line up well with our aircraft. We will also be focusing on Hong Kong as a major hub for inter-Asia and Asia-Europe travel. China has the largest projected growth in passengers of any major country in the next fifteen years and Hong Kong Intl. (HKG) is the busiest Asian airport. With a major hub in Hong Kong our aircraft will be able to connect the busiest economic center in China with any destination in Europe, the Middle East, and the rest of Asia. Team GoldJet 14 System Requirements Review

Europe/Asia Pairs Origin Destination City Code Runway (ft) City Code Runway (ft) Range (nmi) Hong Kong HKG 12,467 London LHR 12,008 5,209 - - - Dubai DXB 13,124 3,201 - - - Sydney SYD 12,999 3,981 - - - Singapore SIN 13,123 1,380 - - - Mumbai BOM 11,302 2,310 - - - Delhi DEL 12,500 2,026 Dubai DXB 13,124 London LHR 12,008 3,302 - - - Delhi DEL 12,500 1,182 - - - Singapore SIN 13,123 3,157 - - - Shanghai PVG 11,154 3,464 - - - Tokyo NRT 13,123 4,316

Table 3: Europe/Asia City-Pairs

The Concorde has proven a demand for flights connecting the United States with Europe, and with John F. Kennedy Int. (JFK) being the busiest international airport in the United States and JFK to London Heathrow (LHR) the busiest international flight, we feel a strong market for our aircraft lies in connecting New York City with major hubs in Europe. The following table is a list of ranges between JFK and some of the busiest European hubs.

Team GoldJet 15 System Requirements Review

Trans-Atlantic Pairs Origin City Code Runway(ft) Range (nmi) New York JFK 11,081 - Destination London LHR 12,404 2,999 Amsterdam AMS 10,645 3,166 Paris CDG 11,331 3,159 Frankfurt FRA 13,123 3,350 Madrid MAD 11,483 3,119 Dublin DUB 10,200 2,762

Table 4: Trans-Atlantic City-Pairs

US domestic flights are the final market we will focus on. This market is available to us with the assumption that supersonic flight will be permitted over the continental United States in some fashion, likely supersonic corridors. The routes selected within the United States must be long enough to sufficiently reduce trip time and must allow for redirection away from major population centers without adding significant distance to the range. The busiest long range flight in the United States is New York (JFK) to Los Angeles (LAX) which also connects two major international Gold Jet hubs. We have selected this flight as our economic mission and will expand on its potential in a later section. Other high volume routes lending themselves to supersonic corridor redirection are listed in the table below, with all flights having one leg in John F. Kennedy Intl.

Team GoldJet 16 System Requirements Review

US Domestic Pairs Origin City Code Runway(ft) Range (nmi) New York JFK 11,081 - Destination Miami MIA 13,000 947 Los Angeles LAX 10,599 2,520 Las Vegas LAS 14,510 2,346 Seattle SEA 11,900 2,259

Table 5: US Domestic City-Pairs

VIII. Design Mission

We chose the design mission to be from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to Pudong International Airport (PVG) in Shanghai, China, because its range enables our aircraft to link Asia to North America, North America to Europe, and the Middle East to most destinations. The design range is 5650 nautical miles.

Figure 5: LAX – PVG, Great Circle Route (Great Circle Mapper[5]) Team GoldJet 17 System Requirements Review

For the purposes of this initial design mission, many aspects of the mission planning and performance are derived from the Concorde's operations. This is due in large part to the unique aspects of high performance airline operations, especially supersonic trans-oceanic flight. For climb and descent gradients, the minimum gradients in accordance with FAR 25.121 were followed, ensuring that the aircraft would be able to perform in a 'worst case' scenario.[6] Climb and descent rates are comparable to Concorde operating procedure. Acceleration at varying stages was determined using the initial sizing code, described in the sizing section of the report, assuming horizontal acceleration.

1. Taxi Out

2. Takeoff

Takeoff includes avoiding a 35 ft obstacle at the end of the runway.

3. Climb and Accelerate

In this stage, our aircraft climbs to 1500 ft AGL and accelerates to 250 KCAS. The climb rate is 5000 ft/min, the maximum performance for this aircraft. In normal operation the climb speed will be less in order to maximize efficiency, but this represents the most inefficient operating limit.

4. Subsonic Climb

The second major climb involves our aircraft climbing to 10,000 ft AGL at 250 KCAS. The climb rate for this leg is 3000 ft/min, as the aircraft reduces climb rate to save engine power.

5. Accelerate

Our aircraft will enter its last major climb supersonically, so it has to accelerate to a climb speed prior to entering the climb.

6. Supersonic Climb

In order to get to its operational altitude of 50,000 ft, our aircraft will climb at a rate of 2000 ft/min. This translates to a speed of around Mach 1.65.

7. Accelerate Team GoldJet 18 System Requirements Review

While the climb is accomplished supersonically, it is not quite at cruise speed, necessitating an acceleration to cruise. This segment will change depending on how aggressive segment 6 is. For this design mission the previous segment was accomplished as aggressively as possible to ensure maximum performance for range.

8. Supersonic Cruise

During super cruise, our aircraft gradually climbs as its weight decreases. The aircraft constantly changes altitude to maintain the most efficient flight path. Both the initial and final cruise altitudes are optimization variables that will change depending on the flight. For this design mission, the 10,000 ft change represents a 34 ft/min climb. During the Concorde operations, the climb rate during cruise was typically 50-100 ft/min. However, our aircraft is a smaller and more efficient airframe, so large climb rates are not necessary to maintain efficiency.

9. Decelerate

After cruise, our aircraft reduces throttle and begins to decelerate, reaching a descent rate of Mach 0.76.

10. Descent

Once at descent speed, our aircraft descends at 2600 ft/min to 10,000 ft AGL.

11. Decelerate

After the subsonic deceleration, our aircraft decelerates to 250 KCAS to maneuver in traffic.

12. Descent

Still at 250 KCAS, our aircraft descends at 1800 ft/min to 1500 ft to enter the pattern.

13. Approach and Land

On final approach, aircraft descends at 800 ft/min.

14. Climb from Missed Approach

This design mission assumes a missed approach to simulate a 'worst case' scenario.

15. Climb Team GoldJet 19 System Requirements Review

In this stage, our aircraft climbs to 1500 ft AGL and accelerates to 250 KCAS. The climb rate is 5000 ft/min, the maximum performance for this aircraft. In this case the maximum climb is reasonable, as a missed approach would necessitate a quick exit to clear the runway and the pattern.

16. Cruise

After a diversion, our aircraft will be able to cruise for 10% of its original block time. In the design mission scenario that works out to be 35 minutes. Cruise altitude for this segment is 30,000 ft at normal cruise speed.

17. Descend

Our aircraft descends to 1500 ft at 1800 ft/min to enter the pattern.

18. Loiter in Pattern

The design mission includes a 45 minute loiter at 1500 ft at 250 KCAS.

19. Approach and Land

20. Taxi In

IX. Economic Mission

Based on our analysis of the market in 2020, we were able to select our Economic Mission, the route that we believe will be travelled most often and most profitably by our aircraft. The route from John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK, in New York) to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) connects the two largest population centers in the United States, both large and powerful economic and social centers. It is currently travelled by in excess of 3,600,000 passengers per year, which we projected to grow to over 5,700,000 passengers in the year 2020 based on market growth estimates detailed earlier. This makes it one of the most highly-travelled routes in the USA by passenger travel and, at approximately 2,520 nautical miles (great circle distance) and five-and-a- quarter hours in duration, is long enough to provide our passengers a significant time savings. Figure 6 shows an ideal route with the least total distance travelled. Team GoldJet 20 System Requirements Review

Figure 6: JFK – LAX, Great Circle Route (Great Circle Mapper[5])

However, it is unlikely that this route would be allowed if supersonic corridors were in effect. An example of an alternate route in Figure 7 avoids the major population centers in the Midwest and West, and attempts to minimize time over densely populated areas on the Eastern Seaboard. This route would only add an additional 400 nautical miles to the trip.

Figure 7: JFK - LAX, Supersonic Corridor Route (Great Circle Mapper[5])

Team GoldJet 21 System Requirements Review

This would reduce the duration of the trip to approximately 3 hours, a savings of almost 43%. JFK to LAX is our economic mission because of its very high passenger volume, its large percentage of passengers requiring lower trip times and willing to pay raised fares, and its distance which allows significantly reduced travel time over the subsonic alternatives.

X. Aircraft Sizing

The aircraft sizing is based on a combination of historical data and fuel fraction estimates, as detailed in Raymer chapter 6.[7] The final gross weight is a sum of the payload weight, crew weight, empty weight, and fuel weight. Payload and crew weight are determined based on the desired mission. The number of passengers determines the payload and crew. Each passenger is estimated to have a total weight including baggage of 220 pounds, based on an average person weighing 180 pounds with 40 pounds of luggage. Crew is assumed to have a total weight of 200 pounds per person. Forty passengers in single class seating were chosen based on the mission analysis, requiring one flight attendant and two pilots for a total of three crew members. The final design payload weight is 8,800 pounds and a crew weight of 600 pounds.

Empty weight is determined as a fraction of the total weight based upon historical data. Military bombers and supersonic transports were chosen because of their large size, high payload, and of course the design mission of sustained supersonic flight. The five parameters used are gross

푇 푊 weight W0, aspect ratio AR, thrust to weight 푊 , wing loading 푆 , and maximum Mach number M. The equation used takes the form

푐 푐 푊푒 푐1 푐2 푇 3 푊 4 푐5 = 푏푊 퐴푅 푀푚푎푥 푊0 0 푊 푆

The constants in the equation are determined from the historical aircraft and fit to their empty weight fraction using a least squares fit in MATLAB. The constants determined from the database are summarized in Table 6, below.

Team GoldJet 22 System Requirements Review

b 1.0784

c1 -0.0903

c2 -0.0838

c3 0.4895

c4 0.2357

c5 -0.3553

Table 6: Least Squares Coefficients

A scaling factor was used to account for technical improvements and changes. The primary factor of 0.95 is used to account for the weight reduction caused by increased use of composites. This is divided by a factor of 1.01 to account for the weight gain resulting from the inclusion of swing wing aircraft in the least-squares solution.

The fuel weight is evaluated by determining the total fuel fraction as a sum of the fuel fraction for all of the mission segments. The mission segments were determined based upon the design mission, with one change; for the descent segment, no range credit is given, and no fuel is consumed. Take-off, landing, and taxi segment fuel fractions are estimates from a range given by Raymer equation 6.8. Climb segment fuel fraction is approximated by

푊 푖 = 0.991 − 0.007푀 − 0.01푀2 푊푖−1

It is based upon acceleration from Mach 0.1 to the Mach number M. The fuel fraction for the cruise segments is determined by modifying the Breguet range equation to the iterative form

−푅푐 푊 푣 퐿 푖 = 푒 퐷 푊푖−1

퐿 where R is the range, c is the specific fuel consumption, v is the velocity, and 퐷 is the lift-to-drag ratio. This is used for both cruise segments, including diverting to another airport (as is outlined in the design mission). Lift-to-drag is a function of aspect ratio and Mach number based upon estimates given by Corke,[8] shown below.

11 퐿 = 0.86 퐷 푐푟푢푖푠푒 푀 Team GoldJet 23 System Requirements Review

퐿 = 1.4퐴푅 + 7.1 퐷 푙표푖푡푒푟

The Mach number is based entirely upon the mission profile, and 1.8 was used for the cruise segments. For loiter the lift-to-drag ratio is based upon the chosen wetted aspect ratio of 5. The only other segment is loiter and is based on the endurance equation, modified like the range equation to the form

−퐸푐 푊 퐿 푖 = 푒 퐷 푊푖−1

Endurance, E, in hours is the duration of the loiter segment. A forty-five minute loiter is assumed for the purpose of sizing. The fuel fractions for each segment are then summed to determine the total mission fuel fraction, with a factor of one percent added for trapped fuel.

W1/W0 0.97 Takeoff

W2/W1 0.946 Climb

W3/W2 0.59443 Cruise

W4/W3 0.995 Land

W5/W4 0.97 Missed Approach (TO)

W6/W5 0.946 Climb

W7/W6 0.95381 Divert to Alternate

W8/W7 0.94820 Hold

W9/W8 0.995 Land

Wf/W0 0.55736 Total Fuel Fraction

Table 7: Fuel Fractions for Each Mission Segment

Once the empty weight and fuel fractions are determined, they are multiplied by the gross weight and solved for in an iterative process. The weight predictions for our aircraft are shown in Table 8 below. Team GoldJet 24 System Requirements Review

W0 design 361,087 lb

We design 150,433 lb

Wf design 201,255 lb

Table 8: Initial Sizing Weights

A benchmark comparison was then done to be sure that the calculations were reasonable, and that our aircraft was significantly different from any others existing or in development, an advantage from a marketing standpoint. As can be seen in Table 7, our aircraft has a significantly higher range than any other benchmark available. In addition, its cruise Mach is comparable, and the cabin size represents a niche unsatisfied by other aircraft.

Aircraft W0 [lb] Cruise Mach Range (nmi) Cabin Size

GoldJet design 361,100 1.8 5650 40

Concorde 408,000 2.02 3900 100

Tu-144 397,000 2.16 3500 120-140

Aerion SBJ 90,000 1.7 3500 8-12

Sukhoi-Gulfstream S-21 114,200 2.2 4000 6-10

Tu-444 90,400 2 4050 6-10

SAI/LM QSST 153,000 1.6-1.8 4000 12

Table 9: Aircraft Benchmarks

XI. Summary and Next Steps

Our mission statement is to design a profitable supersonic aircraft capable of Trans-Pacific travel to meet the needs of airlines and their passengers around the world. After our market analysis we estimated that we would be able to sell at least 120 aircraft. We identified our customers and each of their needs. We found our most important customer needs to be profitable operations, low trip time, long range, and marketability. The engineering requirements we determined to be most important in satisfying our customers’ needs are cruise speed, block time, and Team GoldJet 25 System Requirements Review cruise efficiency. We expect our competitors to be supersonic business jets, subsonic airliners, and supersonic airliners. According to our concept of operations, our aircraft will carry 40 passengers and 3 crew members. The crew will consist of a pilot, copilot, and one flight attendant. Our design mission is to fly from Los Angeles Intl. Airport (LAX) to Pudong Intl. Airport (PVG) in Shanghai, China, a range of 5650 nautical miles. This design mission puts our aircraft in range of four major international hubs in the Asia/Pacific region. We see great potential for our plane in the Asian market with its projected growth over the next ten years. We feel that Emirates Airline out of Dubai, United Arab Emirates most closely resembles our ideal customer. Emirates focuses on long range luxury aircraft that can be marketed at capstone and cutting edge to support their wealthy passenger base. Our economic mission will be a flight from New York City (JFK) to Los Angeles (LAX), the most heavily travelled long range flight in the US domestic market. Lastly, we explained the initial sizing and decided on the basic technical specifications. We decided on a threshold Mach number of 1.8 which will allow our aircraft to cruise twice as fast as the current and traditional subsonic airliners. Historical data was used to estimate other performance parameters like wind loading, aspect ratio, and a lift-to-drag ratio. From the initial sizing, we estimated take-off gross weight to be 361,100 pounds. For the next part of the design phase, we will use the NASA FLOPS code to refine the sizing of our aircraft. We will also decide on a cabin layout and the basic configuration of components. We will create a CAD model and decide on the type and number of engines required for our aircraft. An aerodynamic analysis of various airfoils and planforms will also follow. We have developed a requirements compliance matrix based on those engineering characteristics deemed important in the QFD to track our aircraft’s progress throughout the design phase. The matrix is pictured in figure 8 and assigns target and threshold values to each metric. Some metrics are undefined as they require a more detailed understanding of components before a value can be assigned.

Team GoldJet 26 System Requirements Review

Gold Jet Requirements Compliance Matrix

Requirement Units Target Threshold Design

TO Field Length ft 10,000 12,000

Boom Overpressure lb/ft2 0.2 0.3

TO Gross Weight lb 300,000 400,000 361,300

Landing Field Length ft 10,000 12,000

Range nmi 6,090 5,040 5,500

Turnaround Time min 30 45

Number of Pasengers pax 40 40 40

Crew # 3 3 3

Cruise Speed Mach 2.1 1.75 1.8

Max Speed Mach 2.3 2 2.0

Trip Time *design mission min 400 450 432

Downtime MMH/FH 7 12

Cabin Volume ft3/pax 60 55

Cruise Altitude ft 50000 45000 50,000

Cruise Efficiency paxmi/lb fuel 3.5 3

Second Segment Climb Gradient % 5.0 3.0

Noise dB 65 70

Figure 8: Requirements Compliant Matrix

Team GoldJet 27 System Requirements Review

XII. References [1]"Civil Supersonic Airplane Noise Type Certification Standards and Operating Rules," FR Doc E8- 25052, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D.C., October 22, 2008. [http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2008/E8-25052.htm. Accessed 2/03/09.]

[2] “Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B),” Bureau of Transportaion Statistics, Washington, D.C., September 2008. [http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?DB_ID=125. Accessed 1/22/09.]

[3] “ACI Global Traffic Forecast Report 2008-2027,” CEANS-WP/66, International Civil Aviation Organization, Montréal, Canada, October 9, 2008. [http://www.icao.int/ceans/Docs/Ceans_Wp_066_en.pdf. Accessed 1/22/09.]

[4] “Air Carrier Statistics (Form 41 Traffic)- All Carriers,” Bureau of Transportaion Statistics, Washington, D.C., August 2008. [http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.asp?DB_ID=111. Accessed 1/22/09.]

[5]Swartz, K., “Great Circle Mapper,” Great Circle Mapper, 1994. [http://gc.kls2.com/. Accessed 1/27/09.]

[6] “Federal Aviation Regulations,” Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D.C., January 2009. [http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/. Accessed 1/20/09].

[7]Raymer, D., “Aircraft Design: A Conceptual Approach,” 4th ed., AIAA, Reston, VA, 2006.

[8]Corke, T., “Design of Aircraft,” Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2002.