System Requirements Review
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AAE 451, SENIOR DESIGN SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS REVIEW TEAM 3: GOLDJET DIANE BARNEY DONALD BARRETT MICHAEL COFFEY JON COUGHLIN MARK GLOVER KEVIN LINCOLN ANDREW MIZENER JARED SCHEID ERIC SMITH Team GoldJet 1 System Requirements Review Table of Contents I. Mission Statement 2 II. Outline of NASA Competition 2 III. Key Assumptions 2 IV. Quality Function Deployment 3 V. Market Research 6 VI. Competitors 11 VII. City Pairs and Key Routes 12 VIII. Design Mission 16 IX. Economic Mission 19 X. Aircraft Sizing 20 XI. Summary and Next Steps 24 XII. References 27 Team GoldJet 2 System Requirements Review I. Mission Statement To design a profitable supersonic aircraft capable of Trans-Pacific travel to meet the needs of airlines and their passengers around the world. II. Outline of NASA Competition The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate’s (ARMD) 2008-2009 University Competition calls for the design of an N+2 generation supersonic aircraft which would have initial operational capability (IOC) in 2020. More specific goals for the aircraft as outlined by the competition guidelines include: Cruise speed of Mach 1.6 to 1.8 Design Range of 4000 nautical miles Payload of 35-70 passengers, mixed class Fuel Efficiency of 3 passenger-miles per pound of fuel Takeoff field length < 10,000 feet for airport compatibility Supersonic cruise efficiency Low sonic boom (<70 PldB) In addition, entries to the competition are to identify the possible market for a small supersonic airliner, develop design and economic missions for the aircraft (including likely routes), identify technologies that might enable the aircraft design, and complete a conceptual sizing. These guidelines proved to be a starting point for our aircraft. Deviations occurred as a result of assumptions made, a market study, and sizing based on historical data. III. Key Assumptions Our aircraft is designed to have initial operational capability in 2020, with entry into service by 2023. In order for the GoldJet aircraft to be successful, there are several precedents, both technological and political, that must be met. 1. There must be a change to the FAR regulations that prohibit supersonic flight over land. Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited in the United States since March 1972. Team GoldJet 3 System Requirements Review Changes to these regulations must come in the form of a complete repeal, or a modification to allow certain supersonic corridors for flight over areas of low population density. According to a statement released by Carl Burleson, Director of Environment and Energy on October 16, 2008, it is anticipated that future regulations “would propose any future supersonic airplane produce no greater noise impact on a community than a subsonic airplane.”[1] A design with a sonic boom overpressure less than 0.3 lb/ft2 is a target of GoldJet in order to meet these new anticipated regulations. 2. A number of Supersonic Business Jet (SSBJ) concepts are currently in design and study phases of development. A change in supersonic flight regulations would pave the way for the success of SSBJ’s over the next 10-15 years, fueling technological innovation. Our aircraft will depend on this field of research for products like more efficient supersonic engines, and possibly composite materials with better temperature resistance. IV. Quality Function Deployment The first task in our design process was customer identification. We have defined our customers as anyone affected by the operation of our aircraft. Our primary customers are airlines and passengers. Other customers include the general public, maintenance workers, pilots and crew, and leasing companies (like ILFC). We then identified specific needs for each set of customers, combined them, and allocated a total of 100 points to the group to assign each a relative worth. Each need was assigned a portion of this 100 points and the final ranking of our customer needs can be seen in the table below. Team GoldJet 4 System Requirements Review Customer Needs Relative Worth Profitable Operations 22 Reduced Trip Time 11.88 Long Range 11.38 Marketable 9.375 Functions at Current 6.5 Airports Passenger Comfort 6.875 Many Trips per Day 6.625 Affordable Purchase Cost 5.25 Quiet 4.75 Low Emissions 4.625 Easy to Maintain 3.75 Easy to Manufacture 3.125 Easy to Fly 2.25 Can Carry Cargo 1.625 Table 1: Customer Needs and Relative Worth Our most important customers are airlines, and we feel that profitable operation of our aircraft will be the main factor in their purchasing decision. This is reflected in profitable operations receiving the highest relative worth of all our customer needs. The main purpose of supersonic flight is to reduce trip time. The time savings of supersonic flight increase with the percentage of flight at cruise speed. This means that the trip time is reduced by a larger percentage for longer trips than for shorter trips. With this in mind, the two needs receiving the next highest relative worth are low trip time and long range. The last need that stands out with a high relative worth has been labeled marketable. We have recognized that our aircraft will be the first commercial supersonic airliner since the Concorde and will be considered the cutting edge of aviation. We anticipate airlines using Team GoldJet 5 System Requirements Review our aircraft as a marketing tool to change their image, and the high relative worth of this customer need shows we will pay special attention to aesthetics throughout our design phase. We next developed a list of technical engineering characteristics and requirements that will govern the performance of our airplane. We were interested in finding the correlation between our engineering requirements and our customer needs, so with the combination of the two we built a house of quality and set out to rank the technical requirements in order of importance. The House of Quality (HoQ) views the customer needs as a list of Whats to be satisfied. The engineering requirements are viewed as a list of solutions (Hows) to the Whats. Positive correlations between needs and requirements are noted and the requirements can then be ranked in order of importance to satisfying the customer needs. The HoQ is given in Figure 1. Figure 1: House of Quality After completing the HoQ exercise, the absolute and relative importance of each engineering attribute (How) as it related to the customer needs was determined. The rankings of our requirements (in absolute importance) can be seen in Figure 2. Team GoldJet 6 System Requirements Review Relative Importance of Engineering Characteristics 0.120 0.100 0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 Wingspan [ft] Meets FARs Quiet [Max dB] Cruise Speed [M] Stall Speed [mph] AcquisitionTO Cost Field [$] Length[ft] Block Time [min or hr] Landing FieldNumber Length of Passengers[ft] Operating Cost [$/flight] Cabin Volume/Passenger Turnaround Time [min or hr] Boom Overpressure [Max dB] Minimum Ticket Price [$/pax] Cruise Efficiency [lbs of fuel/pax-mi] Downtime [maintenece time/flightSecond hr] Segment Climb Gradient [%] Figure 2: Relative Importance of Engineering Characteristics Our HoQ revealed the three most important engineering characteristics to be cruise speed, block time, and cruise efficiency. Cruise efficiency has a strong correlation with the profitable operation customer need while cruise speed and block time both have strong influence on reduced trip time. Cruise speed also shows a strong correlation with marketability, our fourth highest ranked customer need. V. Market Research In order to predict the profitability of our aircraft, it is important to consider what size of a market such a supersonic transport jet will reach. Our supersonic aircraft will have a higher operating cost than a similar sized subsonic transport jet. A higher operating cost will translate into higher ticket prices. We have acknowledged that as a commercial airliner this jet will appeal primarily to the wealthier section of the market. It then seems reasonable to expect that our primary market will likely consist mostly of those passengers currently willing to pay first class ticket prices on subsonic carriers. Based on data collected from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics DB1B database for domestic United States flights, and using a first class ticket fare of $1 per mile flown, it was Team GoldJet 7 System Requirements Review determined that approximately 2% of airline travelers within the United States currently pay first class fares.[2] While this number includes only US domestic flights, we have assumed that a similar percentage of customers pay first class fares for international flights. Assuming that this percentage will project to the market at the release of our aircraft, 2% of travelers will be willing to pay the higher ticket prices required of a supersonic transport jet. We also feel that the introduction of our supersonic transport jet will attract a significant amount of business from those who do not currently pay first class fares, but may be willing to pay higher prices for the added benefit of a shorter trip time and the novelty of flying at supersonic speeds. We assume these factors will appeal to an additional 1% of the total market. Therefore, the net market that we predict our jet to reach is 3% of all airline travelers. Having identified a unique passenger base, those willing to pay fares comparable to subsonic first class, we must find a collection of routes and city pairs which both appeal to our passenger base and realize the benefits of supersonic flight. The criteria for a strong city pair include: Sufficient distance between cities so as to have a significant reduction in trip time with supersonic cruise speeds (at least 1000 nmi) Large volume of travelers to provide a market foothold Trans-oceanic flight or easy access to supersonic corridors Connection of large economic, social, and cultural centers A collection of city pairs, historical data on traffic between them, and projections on total market size in the year 2020 allowed us to make an estimate on the total number of passengers per day, week, and year we expect to transport with our aircraft.