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Applied Investment Management (AIM) Program Applied Investment Management (AIM) Program AIM Class of 2011 Equity Fund Reports Fall 2010 Date: September 10, 2010, Location: AIM Research Room First Session: 2:00 – 3:00 pm Second Session: 3:30 – 4:45 pm Student Presenter Company Name Ticker Price Page No. Luke Darkow Kilroy Realty KRC $33.14 2 Caitlin Johnson Chicago Bridge & Iron N.V. CBI $23.13 5 Christina Starkey Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. CRESY $14.44 8 Mark Rutherford Stepan Company SCL $56.20 11 Kyle Boser Apollo Investment Corporation AINV $10.09 14 James Werner Tempur-Pedic International TPX $27.95 17 Ben Hariri TETRA Technologies, Inc. TTI $8.64 20 Mike Muratore Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD $46.83 23 Jose Munoz iRobot Corp. IRBT $17.50 26 For more information about AIM please contact: David S. Krause, PhD Director, Applied Investment Management Program Marquette University College of Business Administration, Department of Finance 436 Straz Hall, PO Box 1881 Milwaukee, WI 53201-1881 mailto:[email protected] or visit www.busadm.mu.edu/aim Marquette University AIM Class 2011 Equity Reports Fall 2010 Page 1 Kilroy Realty (KRC) September 10, 2010 Luke Darkow Financial Services Kilroy Realty (KRC) is a real estate investment trust which owns, operates, develops, and acquires Class A suburban office and industrial real estate in key submarkets in Southern California. KRC’s portfolio consists of 94 office and 41 industrial buildings, encompassing 8.8 million and 3.7 million square feet, respectively. KRC’s top five markets in terms of percentage of rent revenue include San Diego (48%), Los Angeles/Ventura County (30%), Orange County (13%), and San Francisco (9%). KRC operates in two reportable segments, office properties and industrial properties representing 91% and 9% of total annualized base rental revenue respectively. Headquartered in Los Angeles California, KCR has extensive experience and significant working relationships with major Southern California corporate tenants, municipalities, and landowners, given the company’s 60 year presence in the Southern California market. Banking/Financial Services Price ($): (9/07/10) 33.14 Beta: 1.20 FY: Aug 2009A 2010E 2011E Price Target ($): 44 WACC 8.8% Revenue (Mil) 279.43 285.02 330.63 52WK H-L ($): 37-26 L-Term Rev. Gr Rate Est: 8% % Growth -3.43% 2.00% 16.00% Market Cap (mil): 1734.87 L-Term EPS Gr Rate Est: 22% FFO 107.16 106.09 127.30 Float (mil): 51.04 Financial Leverage 2x Profit Margin 12.80% 10.86% 13.09% Short Interest (%): 12.03% ROA: 2.09% EPS (Cal) 0.53 0.59 0.83 Avg. Daily Vol (mil): 0.720 ROE: 2.35% FFO Per Share 2.05 2.03 2.43 Dividend ($): 1.40 FFO/Total Debt 11.0% P/FFO 11.80 13.00 15.00 Yield (%): 4.22% Credit Provisions/Loans N/A Recommendation The U.S. commercial real estate market has experienced significant stress the last several years with high vacancy rates of approximately 15% compared to a historical average ranging from 10-12%, and declining average rent rates per sq ft currently around $23 down from $26 in 2007-2009. KRC commands a distinct competitive advantage in Southern California with high demand for the company’s properties. This is demonstrated by an average rent rate per sq ft of $29.00 within the company’s portfolio compared to the aforementioned market average of $23 per sq ft representing a 26% pricing premium. Additionally, even with historically high vacancy rates of 14% and a challenging economic environment, KRC has been able to grow revenue at a CAGR of 3.98% from 2007 to 2009. Currently trading in the range of $30-$33 at an average forward P/FFO of 13x compared to a historical average P/FFO of approximately 16x, KRC’s growth story is being undervalued. As a result of KRC’s growth potential from rising occupancy rates to normalized levels of approximately 93% from 85.7% currently, and the company’s ability to re- lease vacant office space at a 26% premium, it is recommended that KRC be added to the AIM Equity Fund. A target price of $44 has been applied to KRC representing a potential upside of 33%. Investment Thesis Earnings Upside from Releasing Vacant Space. KRC currently has unusually low occupancy in both its office and industrial portfolios. KRC’s office portfolio occupancy rates are as follows; San Diego (81.5%), Los Angeles/Ventura County (93.0%), Orange County (78.2%), San Francisco (89.7%). KRC’s total office portfolio has an occupancy rate of 85.7%. The industrial portfolio has occupancy rates as follows; Los Angeles (100%), and Orange County (82.4%) with a total industrial occupancy rate of 83.3%. KRC’s total portfolio, including office and industrial has an occupancy rate of 85.1%. Office occupancy has increased 510 bps from the bottom in 4Q09 of 80.6%. As occupancy returns to more normalized levels of approximately 93-94% Marquette University AIM Class 2011 Equity Reports Fall 2010 Page 2 achieved in 2006 through 2008, combined with the ability of KRC to charge a 26% premium average rent rate per sq ft over the market average, rental revenue will be positively impacted. Office Acquisition Activity Increasing. KRC has recently been active in the office acquisition market with management looking to continue to capitalize on distressed assets in Southern California. During the first six months of 2010, KRC acquired five properties in Irvine, San Francisco, Orange County, and two properties in San Diego. These properties aside from the Orange County and Irvine acquisitions with 100% and 95.9% occupancy rates respectively have significant room for occupancy rate improvement. The two locations in San Diego currently have occupancy rates of 71.8% and 80.9%. Additionally, KRC’s recent focus on San Francisco gives the company diversification beyond southern California as well. Improving Commercial Real Estate Outlook. Most commercial real estate markets are finding their bottoms around the country, specifically the commercial office market. The Southern California office market has shown signs of stabilization and highs in vacancy rates may be established during the year. Total vacancy in Los Angeles is 13.8% up 38 basis points sequentially, with San Diego’s vacancy no longer rising but flat for the year at 18%. As vacancy rate peaks are established and begin to lower to historical levels of around 10-12% commercial real estate valuations will be positively impacted leading to multiple expansion. Valuation To derive an intrinsic value for KRC, a variety of valuation techniques were utilized. A discounted cash flow analysis was performed, which yielded a base case intrinsic value of $46.07 with a computed WACC of 8.81% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. A relative valuation technique was utilized as well, taking a weighted average of KRC’s historical P/FFO of 16.46x and a peer average P/FFO of 10.94x. Applying the calculated P/FFO of 15.35x to a projected 2011 FFO per share of $2.43, yielded an intrinsic value of $37.34. Taking both valuation techniques into consideration a target price of $44 has been established for KRC. The firm also pays a yearly dividend of $1.40, yielding 4.22%. Risks Concern Regarding Management Compensation. The executive compensation bonus program enacted at the beginning of the year is based on EBITDA targets, revenue targets, operating margin targets, and leasing targets. 60% of the bonus program is driven by achieving EBITDA and revenue targets which are significantly influenced by acquisitions. An executive compensation bonus program that is not bottom line focused and instead heavily influenced by acquisition activity may impair management in making prudent decisions regarding acquisitions. Total Annualized Rent Revenue Concentrated Among Several Tenants. KRC’s 15 largest tenants account for 48.6% of total annualized rental revenues. Additionally, KRC’s top five largest tenants account for approximately 30% of total annualized rental revenues. If one of these tenants were to not renew an existing lease, KRC’s bottom line would be severely impacted. Economic Outlook of Southern California. The current economic condition in Southern California is more difficult than that of the country as a whole. Unemployment for the state is approximately 12% compared to the national average of approximately 9.6%. Although Southern California has been severely impacted by the recession, office employment growth in San Diego and Los Angeles are projected to outpace the U.S average as a whole at approximately 3% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012 compared to 2% and 3% for the U.S as a whole. Management Mr. John B. Kilroy, Sr. has served as Chairman of the Board of Kilroy Realty Corporation since its incorporation in September 1996 and founded the company in 1947. Mr. Kilroy is a nationally recognized member of the real estate community, providing the Company with strategic leadership and a broad based network of relationships. Mr. John B Kilroy, Jr. has acted as CEO since the company’s incorporation. Marquette University AIM Class 2011 Equity Reports Fall 2010 Page 3 Ownership % of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 1% % of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: ~90% Source: Yahoo Finance Top 5 Shareholders Holder Shares % Out Vanguard Group Inc. 4,976,973 9.51 Invesco LTD. 3,847,966 7.53 BlackRock Fund Advisors 2,848,463 5.44 LaSalle Investment Management Securities 2,560,084 4.89 AEW Capital Management 2,493,490 4.76 Source: Yahoo Finance Marquette University AIM Class 2011 Equity Reports Fall 2010 Page 4 Chicago Bridge & Iron N.V.
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