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Annual Report 2019 The National Productivity Board Annual Report November 2019 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 Following the Council Recommendation of 20 September 2016 on the establishment of National Productivity Boards (2016/C 349/01), Euro Area member states were invited to set up a productivity board with the scope of analysing developments and policies in the field of productivity and competitiveness, thereby contributing to foster ownership and implementation of the necessary reforms at the national level, and hence promote a more sustained economic growth and convergence. The Malta National Productivity Board (NPB) was set up in 2019 and is comprised of a total of 11 members which includes: - The Chairman (ex-ufficio Chair of MCESD) - John Bencini; - A representative from the Economic Policy Department – Godwin Mifsud; - A representative from the Central Bank of Malta – Ian Borg; - 4 members that were nominated by the workers’ organisations constituted bodies sitting in the Council – Christopher Attard, Josef Vella, Mario Sacco & Victor Carachi - 4 members nominated by constituted bodies representing national employers’ organisations sitting in the Council - Abigail Mamo, Joseph Farrugia, Kevin Borg & Vincent Degiorgio. The main contributors of this annual report were: Godwin Mifsud (Director General of the Economic Policy Department in Malta), Chris Meilak (Associate Partner – Ernst & Young) and Gordon Cordina (Executive Director - E-Cubed Consultants). Comments on the report would be gratefully received at the following addresses: National Productivity Board 280/3, Republic Street, Valletta, VLT1112, Malta. Email: [email protected] 2 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPETITIVENESS 8 1.1 Malta’s Economic Structure 9 Sectoral GVA 9 1.1.1 Labour Market: Unemployment, labour Productivity and Unit Labour Cost 10 1.1.2 Output Gap and Potential Output 12 1.1.3 Investment 13 1.1.4 Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Human Capital 14 1.2 The External Sector 16 1.2.1 Current Account Developments 16 1.2.2 Exchange rate, Export market shares and competitiveness 17 1.2.3 Shift Share analysis in GVA 25 1.3 Competitiveness: An external perspective 26 1.3.1 Doing Business Report 26 1.3.2 Global Competitiveness Report – World Economic Forum 27 1.4 Overall Conclusions 30 Chapter 2: A Meso-Level Analysis of Productivity 32 2. A MESO-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY 33 2.1 Territorial Context 33 2.1.1 Demand Drivers 39 2.1.2 Supply Side Capabilities 42 2.2 Business Landscape 48 2.3 Contribution and Interdependence of Industries 52 2.3.1 The inter-relatedness between sectors 52 2.4 Hypothetical Extraction Analysis (HEA) 57 2.5 Sectoral Productivity 63 2.6 Sectoral Resilience to Business Cycle Fluctuations 75 2.7 Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 82 2.7.1 Key Conclusions 82 2.7.2 Policy Recommendations 84 Chapter 3: The Role of Human Capital in the Productivity and Competitiveness of the Maltese Economy 87 3 HUMAN CAPITAL 89 3 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 3.1 Cross-Country Comparison of Human Capital Indicators 90 3.1.1 World Bank Human Capital Index 90 3.1.2 Demographic Developments 95 3.1.3 Educational Attainment 101 3.1.4 Human Capital Composite Index 109 3.1.5 Developments in Employment, Unemployment, Labour Income and Labour Cost 117 3.2 The Relationship Between Human Capital and Growth 126 3.3 Future Scenarios 131 3.4 Key Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 133 Conclusions 133 Policy Recommendations 136 Chapter 4: Research & Innovation and the Emergence of New Sectors 141 4 RESEARCH & INNOVATION AND THE EMERGENCE OF NEW SECTORS 142 4.1 Introduction 142 4.2 Literature review – Innovation for productivity and competitiveness 144 Research, development and innovation 144 Innovation and productivity 145 Innovation in small states 147 The digital revolution 148 Innovation policy 150 4.3 Innovation strategy and key performance indicators 151 The European Union and Innovation 151 Malta’s innovation policy framework 152 4.4 Smart specialisation and new growth areas for the Maltese economy 172 ICT-based innovation 173 Maritime services and aquaculture 180 High-value added manufacturing 183 Aviation and aerospace 186 Tourism product development 187 Health 189 Resource-efficient buildings 192 Future smart specialisation 195 4.5 Conclusions and policy recommendations 196 Framework conditions 197 Innovation activities 199 4 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 Innovation outputs and impacts 201 Chapter 5: Sustainable competitiveness and developments in the infrastructure and real estate markets 202 5 SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVENESS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ESTATE MARKETS 203 5.1 Sustainable competitiveness 203 The sustainable competitiveness concept 203 Indicators of sustainable competitiveness 205 Infrastructure, the real estate market and sustainable competitiveness 208 5.2 Developments in the infrastructure market 214 Infrastructure stock and investment 215 Infrastructure quality and investment efficiency 224 Infrastructure gaps 229 5.3 General Government GFCF in infrastructure-related functions 235 5.4 Closing the infrastructure gap 237 5.5 Developments in the real estate market 241 Property price indicators 242 Fundamental demand and supply factors 245 The property market and the macro-economy 255 5.6 Concluding summary and policy recommendations 260 Concluding summary 260 5.7 Policy recommendations 261 Chapter 6: Assessment and Prioritisation of Policy Recommendations 267 6 ASSESSMENT OF POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 268 6.1 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methodology 269 Setting up the MCDA Framework 269 Applying the MCDA 272 6.2 Results 275 6.3 Concluding Remarks 286 7 REFERENCES 287 5 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 ANNEX1 - HUMAN CAPITAL COMPOSITE INDEX METHODOLOGY 296 ANNEX 2 - POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - EVALUATION 306 6 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 Chapter 1: Developments In Competitiveness 7 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPETITIVENESS As a small island open economy, Malta’s survival depends on its ability to compete in a global and dynamic environment. Its export driven economy necessitates the efficient use of scarce resources to maintain a competitive edge over its competitors. Economic diversification further cements Malta’s competitiveness and improves its resilience towards future shocks. Currently Malta is in the process of economic convergence with the rest of the EU. Chart 1.1 portrays developments in GDP per capita in purchasing power standards for Malta and the EU average. The convergence process has gathered traction since 2013, and in 2017 Malta’s GDP per capita stood at around 97.6% of the EU28 average. In this respect, Malta seems to be making inroads with respect to other advanced economies, strengthening the competitiveness of its economy in the process. For Malta it is critical to sustain its competitive edge, through skills development, growth friendly investment and competitive exports. (source: Eurostat) Though competitiveness is becoming a key word in economic analysis it is still a complex concept which is not easily measured using a single indicator. For this purpose, in this report, several indicators are used as a proxy for the different elements comprising competitiveness. To some extent, competitiveness can be analysed in two different dimensions, namely domestic competitiveness and external competitiveness. Whilst internal competitiveness shows the efficiency with which production adjusts to an ever-changing market environment, external competitiveness analysis a country’s attractiveness relative to other competitor countries across the globe. In many ways, competitiveness ties in with domestic economic 8 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 performance, hence an understanding of Malta’s main drivers of economic growth is required to understand competitiveness. 1.1 Malta’s Economic Structure Sectoral GVA In recent years, Malta has registered significant growth rates mainly owing to strong performances registered in the services industry. This sector is well diversified and export-oriented, whilst its main sub- sectors, such as remote gaming and tourism having strong links to the local economy. Looking at the Gross Value Added (GVA) by sector in Malta, economic diversification is evident as pointed out in Chart 1.2. Apart from the arts, entertainment and recreation sector, other important activities include manufacturing, retail and financial services sectors, which account for a substantial share of Malta’s GVA. (source: NSO) 9 The NPB’s Annual Report November 2019 In 2018 economic growth was broad-based. NSO figures1 show that construction increased by 10.3 per cent, arts entertainment and recreation services had a growth rate of 11.3 per cent, administration and support services grew by 11.7 per cent and real estate services also grew by 13.0 per cent between 2017 and 2018. 1.1.1 Labour Market: Unemployment, labour Productivity and Unit Labour Cost Developments in the Maltese labour market are indicative of a strong and growing economy with an unemployment rate that is lower than the EU average. Chart 1.3a shows how Malta’s unemployment rate has been consistently below that of the EU average over the past decade or so. As of 2018 Malta’s unemployment rate stood at 3.7 per cent whilst that of the EU 28 average was 6.8 per cent. In terms of participation, Charts 1.3b to 1.3d show the evolution of Malta’s participation rate by gender. Malta’s overall participation rate (74.2 per cent) has exceeded that of the EU average (73.7 per cent) in 2018. A decomposition by gender reveals that both female and male participation rates have been consistently on the rise, though the female participation rate is still below the EU average by around 5.2 percentage points. On the other hand, the male participation rate exceeds the EU average by 5.3 percentage points. Certainly, a key factor driving labour market outcomes in recent years has been foreign labour. This development introduced new skills and helped address labour market shortages.
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