Southern Africa(http://www.fews.net/southernafrica)
Madagascar(http://www.fews.net/southernafrica/madagascar)
Presence Country Key Message Update The failure of main season crops results in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in parts of the South
May 2016 Near Term: February May 2016 Medium Term: June
Antsiranana September 2016
MahajBaonrgizainy
Maevatanana Fenoarivo Atsinanana Ambatondrazaka Maintirano Toamasina MiarinAanritvaonanarivo Antsirabe Morondava Ambositra Fianarantsoa Manakara Ihosy Toliara
AmbToôvloamnabreo
Antsiranana
MahajBaonrgizainy
Maevatanana Fenoarivo Atsinanana Ambatondrazaka Maintirano Toamasina MiarinAanritvaonanarivo Antsirabe Morondava Ambositra Fianarantsoa Manakara Ihosy Toliara
AmbToôvloamnabreo
IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
1: Minimal 2: Stressed 3: Crisis 4: Emergency 5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance Key Messages The failure of main season crops has been observed across the districts of Amboasary, Ambovombe, Tsihombe, and Beloha. Significantly belowaverage, offseason crops are also expected in these areas. As a result, household food stocks are already nearly depleted, despite it being the postharvest period, and income levels from agricultural product sales are atypically low. In these areas, poor households are struggling to cover food and nonfood expenditures and will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the outlook period.
In Ampanihy, livestock herd sizes are generally larger than in the Androy region. Although distressed sales over past two years have reduced the number of animals owned by poor households in this region, animal sales will still partially mitigate the impacts of this year’s drought on household food consumption. As a result, poor households in Ampanihy will face slightly better outcomes, in line with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through September.
Although markets in the South are usually supplies with local maize during the postharvest period, maize supplies are currently coming from outside the droughtaffected areas due to the local crop failure. Moreover, while maize prices typically decline during the harvest period, prices increases have been observed this year. For example, in Tsihombe, April maize prices increased by 23 percent compared to January 2016 and were 128 percent above April 2014 levels. These high prices are further limiting food access for poor, marketdependent households.
Outside of droughtaffected areas of the South and West, nearaverage 2016 harvests and normal levels of farm and offlabor incomes are helping to ensure seasonally normal food consumption for poor households. Consequently, most other areas of the country are currently in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.
RELATED INFORMATION
Madagascar Drought conditions will drive poor crop production and an early 2016/17 lean season (http://fews.net/southernafrica/madagascar/keymessageupdate/march2016) March 2016 Key Message Update
Southern Africa Most parts of the region expecting a significantly reduced harvest due to drought conditions (http://fews.net/southernafrica/foodsecurityoutlookupdate/january2016) January 2016 Key Message Update Quick Links
Food Assistance Needs
Food Prices
Weather Hazards
About FEWS NET
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decisionmakers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidencebased analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work. (http://www.fews.net/aboutus)
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